Fixed Income 20 JULI 2018 PT Mega Capital Sekuritas
July 20, 2018
Fixed Income Daily Notes
8.50
(-1 day)
6.90
7.25
7.43
7.54
7.60
7.59
7.87
7.83
7.85
7.68
7.90
8.13
8.37
(-1 week)
6.86
7.25
7.36
7.44
7.49
7.45
7.75
7.74
7.72
7.53
7.88
8.03
8.37
(-1 month)
6.56
6.82
7.02
6.99
7.02
7.23
7.28
7.32
7.33
7.30
7.68
7.70
8.10
7.50
Yield (%)
Indonesia Government Bonds Yield
Maturities (Year)
19-Jul
01
6.88
02
7.33
03
7.48
04
7.68
05
7.72
06
7.59
07
7.96
08
7.94
09
8.00
10
7.81
15
7.99
20
8.19
30
8.38
Source: Bloomberg
6.50
5.50
4.50
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
15
20
30
Maturities (Year)
19-Jul
(-1 day)
(-1 week)
(-1 month)
Global Market Update
At Thursday, July 19, US treasury yield fell to
2.84% Trump’s statement about his
disappointment to The Fed because The Fed
policy hindered his fiscal stimulus. On the
other side, global benchmark bond yield also
moved downward, indicated by 10-years UK
gilt that fell to 1.18% and German Bund that
moved downward to 0.33%.
Yield US Treasury pada hari Kamis, 19 Juli 2018
ditutup mengalami penurunan hingga ke level
2,84% akibat pernyataan Donald Trump yang
mengaku tidak senang dengan kebijakan kenaikan
suku bunga The Fed karena menghapus dampak
stimulus fiskal yang ia lakukan. Di pasar obligasi
global, yield acuan global juga mayoritas ditutup
mengalami penurunan, terlihat dari yield 10 tahun
UK Gilt yang mengalami penurunan ke level 1,18%
dan German Bund yang ditutup turun ke level
0,33%.
Domestic Market Update
BI planned to reactivate 9 month and 12
month SBI in the near future. According to BI,
in order to pull the investor to Indonesia,
those reactivate is needed. However,
according to Indef economist, Eko Listiyanto,
SBI reactivate could pushed banks to allocate
their asset to SBI. Thus, that would led to
credit reduction.
BI Berencana untuk mengaktifkan kembali SBI 9
Bulan dan 12 Bulan dalam waktu dekat. Menurut
BI, pengaktifkan kembali SBI 9 Bulan dan 12 Bulan
tersebut bertujuan untuk menarik investor agar
bisa menanamkan asetnya di Indonesia. Ekonom
Indef, Eko Listiyanto, mengungkapkan bahwa
dengan pengaktifan kembali SBI ini, dapat
menginsentif Bank untuk mengurangi kredit ke
publik karena Bank cenderung untuk menaruh
dananya di SBI ini.
Today, Government bond prices on the
secondary market are likely to strengthen
because of lower US yield. Rupiah will be
ranging from IDR 14,451—14,535 and yield of
10 year benchmark bond (FR0064) will be
ranging from 7.64% - 7.76%.
Hari ini, pergerakan harga SBN secara umum di
pasar sekunder diprediksi cenderung menguat
terbatas akibat turunnya yield AS. Nilai tukar
rupiah terhadap dolar AS diprediksi bergerak
pada kisaran Rp14.451 – Rp14.535 sedangkan
yield benchmark 10 tahun (FR0064) pada
perdagangan hari ini diperkirakan bergerak di
rentang 7,64% - 7,76%.
July 20, 2018
Last Price
Last Yield
88.85
94.00
100.76
102.00
102.00
97.85
95.75
96.80
100.80
102.25
7.77
7.12
6.76
7.93
7.49
7.66
7.93
7.50
8.15
8.01
Volume
(IDR bn)
5550
2311
1039
990
912
840
694
681
603
590
Chg (bps)
-19.65
6.17
11.04
37.08
-106.56
-29.51
-14.71
-134.79
7.69
-79.65
% Chg
-0.33%
0.35%
0.67%
1.14%
-0.38%
-0.13%
-0.53%
-0.53%
0.10%
-0.62%
% YTD
-7.62%
-2.09%
-6.09%
-3.7%
-6.4%
0.00%
-16.17%
1.40%
-0.05%
-1.8%
19-Jul
14,507
1.302
112.5
1.371
33.47
4.074
(-1 day)
14,409
1.307
112.9
1.365
33.31
4.060
19-Jul
(-1 week)
14,329
1.321
112.6
1.363
33.21
4.034
Consumer Price Index (MoM)
Consumer Price Index (YoY)
Core Inflation (YoY)
BI 7-Day RR Rate (%)
Foreign Reserve (US$ Bn)
Jun-18
0.59
3.12
2.72
5.25
119.8
May-18
0.21
3.23
2.75
4.75
122.9
Apr-18
0.10
3.41
2.69
4.25
124.9
Indonesia Sovereign CDS
As of
2-year
5-year
10-year
JIBOR
O/N
1M
3M
LIBOR
1M
19-Jul
(-1 Day)
(-1 Week)
(-1 Month)
(-1 Year)
44.00
42.77
47.09
51.95
43.38
118.77
115.55
122.60
135.97
115.67
198.01
193.78
205.97
215.53
185.37
3M
6M
Indonesia Interest Rates
Deposit 1M
Lending
Most Active Government Bonds
FR0064
FR0063
FR0069
FR0070
FR0053
FR0061
FR0075
FR0059
FR0058
FR0072
Global Stock Marketss
Indonesia (JCI)
Malaysia (KLCI)
Thailand (SET)
Singapore (STI)
Hang Seng
Nikkei 225
Shanghai
Dow Jones (DJIA)
London (FTSE 100)
DAX
Last Price
5871
1759
1647
3278
28011
22765
2773
25065
7684
12686
FX Rate
USD/IDR
GBP/USD
USD/JPY
USD/SGD
USD/THB
USD/MYR
Macroeconomic Data
Most Active Corporate Bonds
WSKT02CN2
ISAT02ACN3
SMASDF01ACN1
FIFA03ACN3
WSKT03ACN1
BBRI02BCN2
APAI01C
ASDF04ACN1
SWMEDP01B
SMBEXI01ACN1
Last Yield
idAidAAA
AAA(idn)sy
idAAA
A(idn)
idAAA
idAAA
AAA(idn)
idA(sy)
idAAA(sy)
99.25
98.97
100.20
99.70
96.42
100.15
100.10
98.90
102.60
99.08
8.77
7.41
5.86
6.53
9.82
8.00
8.53
7.46
19-Jul
(-1 day)
2.00
2.55
2.73
2.84
2.95
2.00
2.526
2.722
2.87
2.96
2.00
2.51
2.72
2.85
2.97
2.00
2.49
2.76
2.90
3.07
1.18
0.33
0.62
3.44
0.04
2.73
2.77
4.09
2.43
1.23
0.34
0.63
3.47
0.04
2.73
2.75
4.09
2.42
1.28
0.36
0.64
3.51
0.04
2.73
2.61
4.10
2.42
1.28
0.33
0.70
3.59
0.03
2.73
2.66
4.22
2.56
3.76
4.27
4.92
3.74
4.26
4.90
3.82
4.36
4.97
4.00
4.50
5.22
19-Jul
(-1 day)
5.02
6.79
7.19
5.00
6.94
7.23
4.97
7.17
7.34
4.34
6.81
7.07
2.09
2.09
2.09
2.05
2.34
2.51
2.34
2.51
2.34
2.50
2.33
2.49
5.68
13.8
5.66
13.8
5.65
14.2
5.62
13.8
19-Jul
98.13
94.40
94.82
100.46
(-1 day)
98.54
95.26
95.65
101.43
Change
-41
-87
-83
-97
Yield
7.57%
7.89%
8.12%
8.20%
Global Bonds
Fed Fund Rate & US T-Bonds Yield
Fed Fund Rate
2-Year
5-Year
10-Year
30-Year
10-Year Government Bond Yield
UK
Germany
France
China
Japan
Korea
Thailand
Malaysia
Singapore
Indonesia USD Bond Yield
INDO-22
INDO-27
INDO-47
Money Market
Benchmark
FR0061
FR0059
FR0074
FR0072
Volume
(IDR bn)
91
80
72
65
51
50
40
40
40
31
Last Price
7.28
19-Jul
(-1 week) (- 1 month)
19-Jul
(-1 week) (- 1 month)
Government Bond Ownership As of July 18, 2018 (in Trillion)
Holders
2013
Banks
335.43
Bank Indonesia
44.44
Mutual Fund
42.50
Insurance
129.55
Foreign Investor
323.83
Pension Fund
39.47
Individual Investors
32.48
Others
47.56
Total
995.25
Source: Bloomberg, IDX & DJPPR
2014
375.55
41.63
45.79
150.60
461.35
43.30
30.41
61.32
1,209.96
2015
350.07
148.91
61.60
171.62
558.52
49.83
42.53
78.76
1,461.85
2016
399.46
134.25
85.66
238.24
665.81
87.28
57.75
104.84
1,773.28
2017
491.61
141.83
104.00
150.80
836.15
198.06
59.84
117.48
2,099.77
13-Jul-18
528.83
141.89
112.5
172.6
835.43
220.77
62.53
131.37
2,205.94
16-Jul-18
529.56
139.53
112.9
188.0
835.90
205.48
62.54
131.15
2,205.05
17-Jul-18
536.87
130.70
112.9
188.2
837.01
205.65
62.53
131.18
2,205.05
18-Jul-18
548.63
119.68
112.9
188.2
836.22
205.69
62.57
131.17
2,205.05
July 20, 2018
Government Bonds Prices
Closing Price Data : 19-Jul-2018
Series
FR0038
FR0048
FR0069
FR0036
FR0031
FR0034
FR0053
FR0061
FR0035
FR0043
FR0063
FR0046
FR0039
FR0070
FR0044
FR0040
FR0037
FR0056
FR0059
FR0042
FR0047
FR0064
FR0071
FR0052
FR0073
FR0054
FR0058
FR0074
FR0065
FR0068
FR0072
FR0045
FR0075
FR0050
FR0057
FR0062
FR0067
FR0076
Maturity
15-Aug-18
15-Sep-18
15-Apr-19
15-Sep-19
15-Nov-20
15-Jun-21
15-Jul-21
15-May-22
15-Jun-22
15-Jul-22
15-May-23
15-Jul-23
15-Aug-23
15-Mar-24
15-Sep-24
15-Sep-25
15-Sep-26
15-Sep-26
15-May-27
15-Jul-27
15-Feb-28
15-May-28
15-Mar-29
15-Aug-30
15-May-31
15-Jul-31
15-Jun-32
15-Aug-32
15-May-33
15-Mar-34
15-May-36
15-May-37
15-May-38
15-Jul-38
15-May-41
15-Apr-42
15-Jul-43
15-May-48
TTM
0.07
0.16
0.74
1.16
2.33
2.91
2.99
3.82
3.91
3.99
4.82
4.99
5.08
5.66
6.16
7.16
8.16
8.16
8.83
8.99
9.58
9.83
10.66
12.08
12.83
13.00
13.92
14.08
14.83
15.67
17.84
18.84
138.47
20.00
22.84
23.76
25.01
29.84
Source: Bloomberg, IBPA & MCS Estimates
Coupon
11.600%
9.000%
7.875%
11.500%
11.000%
12.800%
8.250%
7.000%
12.900%
10.250%
5.625%
9.500%
11.750%
8.375%
10.000%
11.000%
12.000%
8.375%
7.000%
10.250%
10.000%
6.125%
9.000%
10.500%
8.750%
9.500%
8.250%
7.500%
6.625%
8.375%
8.250%
9.750%
7.500%
10.500%
9.500%
6.375%
8.750%
7.375%
Price
100.58
100.50
100.86
105.12
108.07
113.91
102.37
98.13
119.38
109.00
92.03
108.60
117.07
103.70
110.70
117.13
125.34
103.07
94.40
114.83
113.99
88.87
108.03
118.75
105.13
111.24
100.80
94.82
88.83
100.97
100.46
114.28
93.99
122.00
110.76
78.92
103.16
90.63
YTM
2.41%
5.39%
6.63%
6.77%
7.14%
7.37%
7.35%
7.57%
7.13%
7.59%
7.63%
7.41%
7.62%
7.56%
7.77%
7.82%
7.75%
7.86%
7.89%
7.91%
7.89%
7.76%
7.87%
8.04%
8.10%
8.09%
8.15%
8.12%
7.92%
8.26%
8.20%
8.24%
8.11%
8.24%
8.43%
8.44%
8.45%
8.37%
Price (-1)
100.58
100.50
100.86
105.15
108.19
114.29
102.53
98.54
119.38
109.14
92.41
108.60
117.31
103.70
111.26
117.66
125.34
103.65
95.26
115.75
114.62
89.89
108.61
118.75
106.06
111.72
100.53
95.65
89.53
102.51
101.43
114.276
94.59
122.00
110.74
78.95
103.15
90.60
Price Spread (bps)
-0.1
0.0
0.0
-2.6
-12.0
-38.7
-15.8
-41.3
0.0
-13.3
-38.0
0.0
-24.4
0.0
-56.0
-53.4
0.0
-58.0
-86.6
-91.9
-63.1
-101.8
-58.0
0.0
-93.5
-48.2
27.0
-83.2
-70.5
-154.1
-96.8
0.0
-59.6
0.0
1.4
-2.8
0.2
2.5
July 20, 2018
Macroeconomic Indicator
IndicatorCalendar
Calendar
(19 16
- 23- 20
Maret
2018)
Macroeconomic
(July,
2018)
INDONESIA
Date
Indicator
Series
Data
16
Balance of Trade
Jun-18
19
7-Days (Reverse) Repo Rate
-
5.25%
5.25%
5.25%
20
Loan Growth (YoY)
Jun-18
-
10.26%
-
Actual
Previous
Projection
Actual
Previous
Projection
1.74 billion USD -1.52 billion USD 0.73 billion USD
GLOBAL
Date
Indicator
16 Economic Growth (YoY)
Country Series Data
China
Quarter-II
6.7%
6.8%
6.7%
16
Balance of Trade
Euro Area
May-18
16.5 billion EUR
16.7 billion EUR
23.6 billion EUR
16
Retail Sales (MoM)
US
Jun-18
0.5%
1.3%
0.3%
17
Unemployment Rate
Great
Britain
May-18
4.2%
4.2%
4.3%
18
Inflation Rate (YoY)
Great
Britain
Jun-18
2.4%
2.4%
2.6%
18
Inflation Rate Final
(YoY)
Euro Area
Jun-18
2.0%
1.9%
2.0%
18
Crude Oil Inventory
US
19
Balance of Trade
Japan
Jun-18
721 billion JPY
-581 billion JPY
315.7 billion JPY
19
Initial Jobless Claims
US
Week Ended,
July 14-2018
207 thousand
215 thousand
217 thousand
19
Continuing Jobless
Claims
US
Week Ended,
July 07-2018
1751 thousand
1743 thousand
1737 thousand
20
Inflation Rate (YoY)
Japan
Jun-18
-
0.7%
0.9%
20
Current Account
Euro Area
May-18
-
26.2 billion EUR
17.4 billion EUR
Week Ended,
5.84 million barrel -12.6 million barrel -1.9 million barrel
July 13 - 2018
Source: Tradingeconomics and Bloomberg (2018)
July 20, 2018
PT. MEGA CAPITAL SEKURITAS
Head Office
Menara Bank Mega Lt. 2
Jl. Kapten P. Tendean Kav 12-14A
Jakarta 12790
Dealing Room
Phone No
: +62 21 7995795
Fax No
: +62 21 79175965
Eva Sarah Hutabarat
eva@megasekuritas.id
Head of Debt Capital
Market
Cicih Sukaesih
cicih@megasekuritas.id
Debt Sales
Emilda Mardiyanti
emilda.mardiyanti@megasekuritas.id
Debt Sales
Ajeng Palupi P.
palupi@megasekuritas.id
Debt Sales
Qolbie Ardie
qolbie@megasekuritas.id
Economist &
Fixed Income Analyst
Siti Maulina M.
siti.maulina@megasekuritas.id
Administrative
Assistant
DISCLAIMER
This Document is for information only and for the use of the recipient. It is not to be reproduced or copied or made available to others. Under no
circumstances is it to be considered as an offer to sell or solicitation to buy any security. Any recommendation contained in this report may not be
suitable for all investors and strictly a personal view and should not be used as a sole judgment for investment. Moreover, although the information
contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, its accuracy, completeness and reliability cannot be guaranteed. All rights
reserved by PT Mega Capital Sekuritas.
Fixed Income Daily Notes
8.50
(-1 day)
6.90
7.25
7.43
7.54
7.60
7.59
7.87
7.83
7.85
7.68
7.90
8.13
8.37
(-1 week)
6.86
7.25
7.36
7.44
7.49
7.45
7.75
7.74
7.72
7.53
7.88
8.03
8.37
(-1 month)
6.56
6.82
7.02
6.99
7.02
7.23
7.28
7.32
7.33
7.30
7.68
7.70
8.10
7.50
Yield (%)
Indonesia Government Bonds Yield
Maturities (Year)
19-Jul
01
6.88
02
7.33
03
7.48
04
7.68
05
7.72
06
7.59
07
7.96
08
7.94
09
8.00
10
7.81
15
7.99
20
8.19
30
8.38
Source: Bloomberg
6.50
5.50
4.50
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
15
20
30
Maturities (Year)
19-Jul
(-1 day)
(-1 week)
(-1 month)
Global Market Update
At Thursday, July 19, US treasury yield fell to
2.84% Trump’s statement about his
disappointment to The Fed because The Fed
policy hindered his fiscal stimulus. On the
other side, global benchmark bond yield also
moved downward, indicated by 10-years UK
gilt that fell to 1.18% and German Bund that
moved downward to 0.33%.
Yield US Treasury pada hari Kamis, 19 Juli 2018
ditutup mengalami penurunan hingga ke level
2,84% akibat pernyataan Donald Trump yang
mengaku tidak senang dengan kebijakan kenaikan
suku bunga The Fed karena menghapus dampak
stimulus fiskal yang ia lakukan. Di pasar obligasi
global, yield acuan global juga mayoritas ditutup
mengalami penurunan, terlihat dari yield 10 tahun
UK Gilt yang mengalami penurunan ke level 1,18%
dan German Bund yang ditutup turun ke level
0,33%.
Domestic Market Update
BI planned to reactivate 9 month and 12
month SBI in the near future. According to BI,
in order to pull the investor to Indonesia,
those reactivate is needed. However,
according to Indef economist, Eko Listiyanto,
SBI reactivate could pushed banks to allocate
their asset to SBI. Thus, that would led to
credit reduction.
BI Berencana untuk mengaktifkan kembali SBI 9
Bulan dan 12 Bulan dalam waktu dekat. Menurut
BI, pengaktifkan kembali SBI 9 Bulan dan 12 Bulan
tersebut bertujuan untuk menarik investor agar
bisa menanamkan asetnya di Indonesia. Ekonom
Indef, Eko Listiyanto, mengungkapkan bahwa
dengan pengaktifan kembali SBI ini, dapat
menginsentif Bank untuk mengurangi kredit ke
publik karena Bank cenderung untuk menaruh
dananya di SBI ini.
Today, Government bond prices on the
secondary market are likely to strengthen
because of lower US yield. Rupiah will be
ranging from IDR 14,451—14,535 and yield of
10 year benchmark bond (FR0064) will be
ranging from 7.64% - 7.76%.
Hari ini, pergerakan harga SBN secara umum di
pasar sekunder diprediksi cenderung menguat
terbatas akibat turunnya yield AS. Nilai tukar
rupiah terhadap dolar AS diprediksi bergerak
pada kisaran Rp14.451 – Rp14.535 sedangkan
yield benchmark 10 tahun (FR0064) pada
perdagangan hari ini diperkirakan bergerak di
rentang 7,64% - 7,76%.
July 20, 2018
Last Price
Last Yield
88.85
94.00
100.76
102.00
102.00
97.85
95.75
96.80
100.80
102.25
7.77
7.12
6.76
7.93
7.49
7.66
7.93
7.50
8.15
8.01
Volume
(IDR bn)
5550
2311
1039
990
912
840
694
681
603
590
Chg (bps)
-19.65
6.17
11.04
37.08
-106.56
-29.51
-14.71
-134.79
7.69
-79.65
% Chg
-0.33%
0.35%
0.67%
1.14%
-0.38%
-0.13%
-0.53%
-0.53%
0.10%
-0.62%
% YTD
-7.62%
-2.09%
-6.09%
-3.7%
-6.4%
0.00%
-16.17%
1.40%
-0.05%
-1.8%
19-Jul
14,507
1.302
112.5
1.371
33.47
4.074
(-1 day)
14,409
1.307
112.9
1.365
33.31
4.060
19-Jul
(-1 week)
14,329
1.321
112.6
1.363
33.21
4.034
Consumer Price Index (MoM)
Consumer Price Index (YoY)
Core Inflation (YoY)
BI 7-Day RR Rate (%)
Foreign Reserve (US$ Bn)
Jun-18
0.59
3.12
2.72
5.25
119.8
May-18
0.21
3.23
2.75
4.75
122.9
Apr-18
0.10
3.41
2.69
4.25
124.9
Indonesia Sovereign CDS
As of
2-year
5-year
10-year
JIBOR
O/N
1M
3M
LIBOR
1M
19-Jul
(-1 Day)
(-1 Week)
(-1 Month)
(-1 Year)
44.00
42.77
47.09
51.95
43.38
118.77
115.55
122.60
135.97
115.67
198.01
193.78
205.97
215.53
185.37
3M
6M
Indonesia Interest Rates
Deposit 1M
Lending
Most Active Government Bonds
FR0064
FR0063
FR0069
FR0070
FR0053
FR0061
FR0075
FR0059
FR0058
FR0072
Global Stock Marketss
Indonesia (JCI)
Malaysia (KLCI)
Thailand (SET)
Singapore (STI)
Hang Seng
Nikkei 225
Shanghai
Dow Jones (DJIA)
London (FTSE 100)
DAX
Last Price
5871
1759
1647
3278
28011
22765
2773
25065
7684
12686
FX Rate
USD/IDR
GBP/USD
USD/JPY
USD/SGD
USD/THB
USD/MYR
Macroeconomic Data
Most Active Corporate Bonds
WSKT02CN2
ISAT02ACN3
SMASDF01ACN1
FIFA03ACN3
WSKT03ACN1
BBRI02BCN2
APAI01C
ASDF04ACN1
SWMEDP01B
SMBEXI01ACN1
Last Yield
idAidAAA
AAA(idn)sy
idAAA
A(idn)
idAAA
idAAA
AAA(idn)
idA(sy)
idAAA(sy)
99.25
98.97
100.20
99.70
96.42
100.15
100.10
98.90
102.60
99.08
8.77
7.41
5.86
6.53
9.82
8.00
8.53
7.46
19-Jul
(-1 day)
2.00
2.55
2.73
2.84
2.95
2.00
2.526
2.722
2.87
2.96
2.00
2.51
2.72
2.85
2.97
2.00
2.49
2.76
2.90
3.07
1.18
0.33
0.62
3.44
0.04
2.73
2.77
4.09
2.43
1.23
0.34
0.63
3.47
0.04
2.73
2.75
4.09
2.42
1.28
0.36
0.64
3.51
0.04
2.73
2.61
4.10
2.42
1.28
0.33
0.70
3.59
0.03
2.73
2.66
4.22
2.56
3.76
4.27
4.92
3.74
4.26
4.90
3.82
4.36
4.97
4.00
4.50
5.22
19-Jul
(-1 day)
5.02
6.79
7.19
5.00
6.94
7.23
4.97
7.17
7.34
4.34
6.81
7.07
2.09
2.09
2.09
2.05
2.34
2.51
2.34
2.51
2.34
2.50
2.33
2.49
5.68
13.8
5.66
13.8
5.65
14.2
5.62
13.8
19-Jul
98.13
94.40
94.82
100.46
(-1 day)
98.54
95.26
95.65
101.43
Change
-41
-87
-83
-97
Yield
7.57%
7.89%
8.12%
8.20%
Global Bonds
Fed Fund Rate & US T-Bonds Yield
Fed Fund Rate
2-Year
5-Year
10-Year
30-Year
10-Year Government Bond Yield
UK
Germany
France
China
Japan
Korea
Thailand
Malaysia
Singapore
Indonesia USD Bond Yield
INDO-22
INDO-27
INDO-47
Money Market
Benchmark
FR0061
FR0059
FR0074
FR0072
Volume
(IDR bn)
91
80
72
65
51
50
40
40
40
31
Last Price
7.28
19-Jul
(-1 week) (- 1 month)
19-Jul
(-1 week) (- 1 month)
Government Bond Ownership As of July 18, 2018 (in Trillion)
Holders
2013
Banks
335.43
Bank Indonesia
44.44
Mutual Fund
42.50
Insurance
129.55
Foreign Investor
323.83
Pension Fund
39.47
Individual Investors
32.48
Others
47.56
Total
995.25
Source: Bloomberg, IDX & DJPPR
2014
375.55
41.63
45.79
150.60
461.35
43.30
30.41
61.32
1,209.96
2015
350.07
148.91
61.60
171.62
558.52
49.83
42.53
78.76
1,461.85
2016
399.46
134.25
85.66
238.24
665.81
87.28
57.75
104.84
1,773.28
2017
491.61
141.83
104.00
150.80
836.15
198.06
59.84
117.48
2,099.77
13-Jul-18
528.83
141.89
112.5
172.6
835.43
220.77
62.53
131.37
2,205.94
16-Jul-18
529.56
139.53
112.9
188.0
835.90
205.48
62.54
131.15
2,205.05
17-Jul-18
536.87
130.70
112.9
188.2
837.01
205.65
62.53
131.18
2,205.05
18-Jul-18
548.63
119.68
112.9
188.2
836.22
205.69
62.57
131.17
2,205.05
July 20, 2018
Government Bonds Prices
Closing Price Data : 19-Jul-2018
Series
FR0038
FR0048
FR0069
FR0036
FR0031
FR0034
FR0053
FR0061
FR0035
FR0043
FR0063
FR0046
FR0039
FR0070
FR0044
FR0040
FR0037
FR0056
FR0059
FR0042
FR0047
FR0064
FR0071
FR0052
FR0073
FR0054
FR0058
FR0074
FR0065
FR0068
FR0072
FR0045
FR0075
FR0050
FR0057
FR0062
FR0067
FR0076
Maturity
15-Aug-18
15-Sep-18
15-Apr-19
15-Sep-19
15-Nov-20
15-Jun-21
15-Jul-21
15-May-22
15-Jun-22
15-Jul-22
15-May-23
15-Jul-23
15-Aug-23
15-Mar-24
15-Sep-24
15-Sep-25
15-Sep-26
15-Sep-26
15-May-27
15-Jul-27
15-Feb-28
15-May-28
15-Mar-29
15-Aug-30
15-May-31
15-Jul-31
15-Jun-32
15-Aug-32
15-May-33
15-Mar-34
15-May-36
15-May-37
15-May-38
15-Jul-38
15-May-41
15-Apr-42
15-Jul-43
15-May-48
TTM
0.07
0.16
0.74
1.16
2.33
2.91
2.99
3.82
3.91
3.99
4.82
4.99
5.08
5.66
6.16
7.16
8.16
8.16
8.83
8.99
9.58
9.83
10.66
12.08
12.83
13.00
13.92
14.08
14.83
15.67
17.84
18.84
138.47
20.00
22.84
23.76
25.01
29.84
Source: Bloomberg, IBPA & MCS Estimates
Coupon
11.600%
9.000%
7.875%
11.500%
11.000%
12.800%
8.250%
7.000%
12.900%
10.250%
5.625%
9.500%
11.750%
8.375%
10.000%
11.000%
12.000%
8.375%
7.000%
10.250%
10.000%
6.125%
9.000%
10.500%
8.750%
9.500%
8.250%
7.500%
6.625%
8.375%
8.250%
9.750%
7.500%
10.500%
9.500%
6.375%
8.750%
7.375%
Price
100.58
100.50
100.86
105.12
108.07
113.91
102.37
98.13
119.38
109.00
92.03
108.60
117.07
103.70
110.70
117.13
125.34
103.07
94.40
114.83
113.99
88.87
108.03
118.75
105.13
111.24
100.80
94.82
88.83
100.97
100.46
114.28
93.99
122.00
110.76
78.92
103.16
90.63
YTM
2.41%
5.39%
6.63%
6.77%
7.14%
7.37%
7.35%
7.57%
7.13%
7.59%
7.63%
7.41%
7.62%
7.56%
7.77%
7.82%
7.75%
7.86%
7.89%
7.91%
7.89%
7.76%
7.87%
8.04%
8.10%
8.09%
8.15%
8.12%
7.92%
8.26%
8.20%
8.24%
8.11%
8.24%
8.43%
8.44%
8.45%
8.37%
Price (-1)
100.58
100.50
100.86
105.15
108.19
114.29
102.53
98.54
119.38
109.14
92.41
108.60
117.31
103.70
111.26
117.66
125.34
103.65
95.26
115.75
114.62
89.89
108.61
118.75
106.06
111.72
100.53
95.65
89.53
102.51
101.43
114.276
94.59
122.00
110.74
78.95
103.15
90.60
Price Spread (bps)
-0.1
0.0
0.0
-2.6
-12.0
-38.7
-15.8
-41.3
0.0
-13.3
-38.0
0.0
-24.4
0.0
-56.0
-53.4
0.0
-58.0
-86.6
-91.9
-63.1
-101.8
-58.0
0.0
-93.5
-48.2
27.0
-83.2
-70.5
-154.1
-96.8
0.0
-59.6
0.0
1.4
-2.8
0.2
2.5
July 20, 2018
Macroeconomic Indicator
IndicatorCalendar
Calendar
(19 16
- 23- 20
Maret
2018)
Macroeconomic
(July,
2018)
INDONESIA
Date
Indicator
Series
Data
16
Balance of Trade
Jun-18
19
7-Days (Reverse) Repo Rate
-
5.25%
5.25%
5.25%
20
Loan Growth (YoY)
Jun-18
-
10.26%
-
Actual
Previous
Projection
Actual
Previous
Projection
1.74 billion USD -1.52 billion USD 0.73 billion USD
GLOBAL
Date
Indicator
16 Economic Growth (YoY)
Country Series Data
China
Quarter-II
6.7%
6.8%
6.7%
16
Balance of Trade
Euro Area
May-18
16.5 billion EUR
16.7 billion EUR
23.6 billion EUR
16
Retail Sales (MoM)
US
Jun-18
0.5%
1.3%
0.3%
17
Unemployment Rate
Great
Britain
May-18
4.2%
4.2%
4.3%
18
Inflation Rate (YoY)
Great
Britain
Jun-18
2.4%
2.4%
2.6%
18
Inflation Rate Final
(YoY)
Euro Area
Jun-18
2.0%
1.9%
2.0%
18
Crude Oil Inventory
US
19
Balance of Trade
Japan
Jun-18
721 billion JPY
-581 billion JPY
315.7 billion JPY
19
Initial Jobless Claims
US
Week Ended,
July 14-2018
207 thousand
215 thousand
217 thousand
19
Continuing Jobless
Claims
US
Week Ended,
July 07-2018
1751 thousand
1743 thousand
1737 thousand
20
Inflation Rate (YoY)
Japan
Jun-18
-
0.7%
0.9%
20
Current Account
Euro Area
May-18
-
26.2 billion EUR
17.4 billion EUR
Week Ended,
5.84 million barrel -12.6 million barrel -1.9 million barrel
July 13 - 2018
Source: Tradingeconomics and Bloomberg (2018)
July 20, 2018
PT. MEGA CAPITAL SEKURITAS
Head Office
Menara Bank Mega Lt. 2
Jl. Kapten P. Tendean Kav 12-14A
Jakarta 12790
Dealing Room
Phone No
: +62 21 7995795
Fax No
: +62 21 79175965
Eva Sarah Hutabarat
eva@megasekuritas.id
Head of Debt Capital
Market
Cicih Sukaesih
cicih@megasekuritas.id
Debt Sales
Emilda Mardiyanti
emilda.mardiyanti@megasekuritas.id
Debt Sales
Ajeng Palupi P.
palupi@megasekuritas.id
Debt Sales
Qolbie Ardie
qolbie@megasekuritas.id
Economist &
Fixed Income Analyst
Siti Maulina M.
siti.maulina@megasekuritas.id
Administrative
Assistant
DISCLAIMER
This Document is for information only and for the use of the recipient. It is not to be reproduced or copied or made available to others. Under no
circumstances is it to be considered as an offer to sell or solicitation to buy any security. Any recommendation contained in this report may not be
suitable for all investors and strictly a personal view and should not be used as a sole judgment for investment. Moreover, although the information
contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, its accuracy, completeness and reliability cannot be guaranteed. All rights
reserved by PT Mega Capital Sekuritas.