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Lag Length Critera. Stability VAR Model Test.

2013. It starts with point of 594.79 in December 2012. In 2013 the price fluctuates. In March, the point increases to 660.34 and in December slumps to 585.11 point. Going into March 2014, the price increases to 640.41 point. As for December 2014 the price tips to 691.04. For 2015, the price goes to 728.20 point in March and reaches to 603.35 point. Lastly, in March 2016 the price goes to 652.59. 2. Exchange Rate. Exchange rate becomes one of the indicators to show the strength of one country’s economic. Source: University of British Columbia FIGURE 4.2 Exchange Rate Movement October 2012-March 2016 Referring to the earlier graph, in December 2012 the rate listed in Rp9.642. Rupiah depreciates to Rp9.709 in March 2013 and in the end of the year it goes to Rp12.085. Coming into March 2014, Rupiah appreciates to Rp11.412 and depreciates to Rp12.433 Rp- Rp5,000 Rp10,000 Rp15,000 D ec- 12 Ma r- 13 Jun -13 Sep- 13 D ec -13 Ma r- 14 Jun -14 Sep- 14 D ec -14 Ma r- 15 Jun -15 Sep- 15 D ec -15 Ma r- 16 Exchange Rate Movement October 2012 - March 2016 ER in December. Along in March 2015 it depreciates to Rp13.071 and went to Rp13.831 in December. On December 2015 it appreciates to Rp13.197.

3. Oil Price.

As a widely used commodity, oil price is a benchmark in a company performance. As well in stock market performance, it has important impact in it. Brent oil price is one of the international standards for oil industry. Source: U.S Energy Information Administration FIGURE 4.3 Oil Price Movement October 2012-March 2016 In December 2012 the price is set Rp1.459.064barrel. The price in March the following year drops to Rp1.445.471 and increases a little to Rp1.475.988 in December 2013. However in March 2014 the price flops to Rp1.432.278 and drops dramatically to Rp830.743 in December. It can be seen that in March 2015 the price continuously to slump with Rp744.790 and in the end of 2015 - 1,000,000 2,000,000 De c-12 Mar -13 Jun-13 S ep- 13 De c-13 Mar -14 Jun- 14 S ep- 14 De c-14 Mar -15 Jun-15 S ep- 15 De c-15 Ma r- 16 Oil Price Movement October 2012 - March 2016 O

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