THE SIGNIFICANCE OF AIPAC (AMERICAN –ISRAEL PUBLIC AFFAIR COMMITTEE) INFLUENCES IN U.S FOREIGN POLICIES TOWARD IRANIAN NUCLEAR PROGRAM

1 THE SIGNIFICANCE OF AIPAC INFLUENCES IN UNITED STATE’S

FOREIGN POLICY TOWARD IRANIAN NUCLEAR PROGRAM

CHAPTER 1

1. Introduction 1.1 Back ground

The American Israel Public Affair Committee (AIPAC) is a group which advocates pro Israeli policies to the Congres and the excecutive branch of the United states.1 This group It has managed to infiltrate the vital part of decision making process of United State foreign policy and succesfully obtained themselves to goverment elite. In this case, AIPAC also supports to spread the extreme views2 within the group. In other word, through AIPAC tried to get support from American politicians for the benefit of the organization. AIPAC tried created a good political atmosphere in order to maintain support for Jewish agenda. Every policy of United States toward Isarel will be always under the control of AIPAC. AIPAC moreover succeeded in creating an unwritten rule, even the smallest protest againts Zionist regime would be considered as a form of

1

Windham, Mircea, 2010, AIPAC Organisasi berbahaya di Dunia, Pustaka Solomon, Yogyakarta,,page 7

2

who we mean by “extrem views” the ide to spread hight tread directed to toward, iranian, Iraqi. Palestinian, and other the nation that enact the anti semitic.

2 insulting jews and culprit could be accused of anti-jewish or anti-Semitic.3These view embeden are the United States foreign policy.

AIPAC Establesed on 1953 by Isaiah L. Kenen. AIPAC is one of the many interest group in America and yet the most powerful. Among the many organizations of Jewish lobby, AIPAC is one of the most influential and the biggest of dozent of Jewish organizations in U.S. quoting from The New York Times in 6 June 1987, and Fortune magazine in 19974. AIPAC become frontier of all the Zionist organization in Uncle Sam. It took a grip in all aspect of life; economic, social, political, military, perse. All of this important aspect were made sure to move along the priorities and target which defined and directed by AIPAC. AIPAC is for certain has high bargain position. It was proven, by the solid base line of finacial sustainability provided by government AIPAC member whose runing the office.

AIPAC was taken for granted in United States decision making process. It was because AIPAC does not hestite to overflow the donation to Americans. Sources of donation were collected from various ways among other coming from the Jewish exodus whom living in the United States. The main reason the exodus donated certain amount of money and trust AIPAC to run it because they want to express their solidarity and care for the brother and sister who are lives in Israel. The AIPAC, which currently has around ten thousand member. Managed their

3

Obama- Israel and AIPAC Two Dueling Video, http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/fact-checker/post/obama-israel-and-aipac-two-dueling-videos/2012/03/04/gIQAqn1irR_blog.html acces again at 13:10 date, 21 of juny 2013

4

3 regular meeting to share their views and planned many action to defend the Israeli’s existence.

U.S and Israel has close relations. It can be understand with slight glance of demographic chart. Which 2.1 percent of population with jews.5 Through United State AIPAC try to expand their infuence on United Nation and international institution to gain support on Tel Aviv status qou. AIPAC intend to use those to support to keep Israel out from various thread and the potential wars in the future. The AIPAC support from International Society ment to justified the course of action taken by Israel military that engage in serious conflict since arab war.

Iran nuclear program been proceeded since long time ago6. But the focus of attention limited on 2006 as momentum when Iran deemed a violation of Non proliferation treaty (NPT). In that year, the controversy surrounding the issue of Iran’s nuclear program escalated into an International crisis. And the response of the Western countries increasingly vociferous, and became more intense by excessive media coverage. The mass media blowing up of the issues Iranian nuclear and made them appear as a threat of human being existence. Propaganda through the mass media increasingly provoke Iran to escalate the nuclear plans. In 2006 soon after the hectic reportage Iran gallantly striven and levelling up to their nuclear uranium and enrichment and brought the international attention.

5

An Excel spreadsheet of the 2011 population size tables http://www.jewishdatabank.org/PopulationStatistics.asp see more http://www.jewishvirtuallibrary.org/jsource/US-Israel/usjewpop.html February, 03 , 2013

6

A nuclear program has actually been a long time it during Syah reza pahlevi period, The U.S atoms for Peace Program an followed by Tehran Nuclear Research in 1959 under shah Reza rezim, reference : http://www.library.upnvj.ac.id/pdf/s1hi09/201613017/bab2.pdf and read more, M.Ansari, Ali, 2006, Supremasi Iran, Poros Setan atau super power Baru, Jakarta, Zahra

4 Bush administration quite responsive to the development of Iranian nuclear program. Once he stated, in order to deal with Iranian nuclear development and avoid “latent effect”, military strike should be concidered be option. This alternative would be chose especially if only Iran continues and refuse to be open and transparent about the nuclear program.7 Bush’s statement supported by similar statement from Vice President Dick Cheney, he said that Iran is in a ranks top global threat-a-list. Cheney also said that Iranian nuclear crisis could trigger a preemptive8 attack against Iran from countries like Israel or United State’s. Iran is indeed show the capacity to posses nuclear weapons.

In this context, Bush declarated that Iran an actual threat to world peace because possesion of nuclear weapon. It is reasonable for the United State bring this issue to the United Nation Security Council and ensure that Iranian nuclear program has a potensial harm for international problem. Pucntiliously the Bush statement confirm U.S policy Consequently relied on sanctions, whether to freeze Iranian assets in the U.S. or emphazing ban and economic embargo.

The election in 2008 placing Barack Obama as new president in U.S, replaced George W Bush, promised a new political direction. Compared to Bush, Barack Obama is more subtle to the countries with considered enemies and be more benign. For interest group like AIPAC it is important to sustain govermnent

7

Bush Won’t Rule Out Action Against Iran Over Nukes, Reuters, accessed

http://www.nti.org/e_research/profiles/Iran.htm, 29 Mei 2012 8

Pre-emptive defense is a doctrine that developed after the tragedy of 11 September 2001 in the United States. This doctrine first priority to attack the enemy or the elements that are considered enemies of the state before the state or the elements to attack the United States. The doctrine of preemptive implemented by the Government of the United States when it invaded Iraqin 2002in

5 support but Obama appear tougher than Bush's when it came to the matter of affirmative action on nuclear. With a new political direction there is the necessity for AIPAC to keep control over U.S foreign policy by securing government seat.

In this new administration, Obama was more lenient in dealing with countries in the Middle East, especially Iran. It can be seen from Obama's statement over the importance of ``constructive relationships” believed could create opportunities for Iran to play an important role in the world arena. Its started with respect and Appreciate Mullah’s role in all the muslim’s aspect of life, and in Iranian government and politic. This form of action produce positive change in term of U.S-Iran relationship.

This Different approach from Obama create inconvenient situation for U.S goverment and their allies. Especially with Israel Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Once Obama and Netanyahu reportedly arguing on the matter of Iranian nuclear. Zee New proclaimed, Netanyahu continued to ask Obama to respond quickly9. While Obama prudently calculate the output to attack Mullah state would lead Israel to the edge of catastrophe. Under Obama, U.S foreign policy seem favoured to corner Iran with mild sanctions than the prior existence policy such as harsh economic embargo or travel prohibition, or even option for military attack. To satisfied AIPAC‘s demand Obama make astonising statement to considered military forces but only after the other option failed. This posture not hastily, it came with concideration and a lot of factor involved.

9

Obama Netanyahu Akan Bertemu Bicarakan Nuklir Iran

http://rimanews.com/read/20120302/55898/obama-netanyahu-akan-bertemu-bicarakan-nuklir-iran accesed , April 4 2012

6 The new sanctions targeted on Iran’s arm exports. U.S requested their allies and economic partner’s to not involve in any kind of arm transactions. Tanks, missiles, warships would be in the untradable list. This is Obama version of pressure for Iran. The mutualy advantange U.S-Israel, AIPAC without worsening the condition with Iran. Obama anticipated the chance of Iran the nuclear card and prevent Israel to engage in a nuclear war, also to maintain security in the Middle- East.

Under the AIPAC Influence, the United State led the international public opinion to halt Iranian nuclear program. This was done through various of ways, bureaucraticly and through the mass media. At the times U.S sponsored United Nations, European countries and Israel to impose sanctions on Iran related to its nuclear program. First, by Resolution No.1737 (December 2006), the United Nations issued to halt the nuclear activities but Tehran ignored it and the second Resolution No.1747 came after Tehran resist the first call.

These sanctions include travel ban for Iranian officials and employers involved in nuclear project also seven members of the Revolutionary Guards10 does not seclude this prohibit list. Sanctions also cover voluntary restrictions by countries and financial institutions to make new commitments in terms of grants, financial assistance and concessions to Iran, except for humanitarian purposes.

10

Iran Sanctions, http://publikasi.umy.ac.id/index.php/hi/article/viewFile/1100/608 accesed February 16 2013

7 This is also valid for several individuals and companies which listed by government to frozen their assets because of involvement in this program.11

1.2 Research Question

Based on brief ilustration in introduction the ultimate Question from this riset is how the significance of AIPAC Influences in United State’s foreign policy toward Iranian nuclear program?

1.3 Literatur Review

Before the researchers conducted a study on the Role of AIPAC in U.S. Foreign Policy On Iran Nuclear Case, researchers will first describe the previous research based on the article written by M. Khoirul, by tittle, Perbandingan Kebijakan Luar Negeri terhadap Iran-Irak Dalam Penyelesaian Dugaan Kepemilikan Senjata Pemusnah Massal, masa George W. Bush 2001-2008. In this article Khoirul write, there are similarities between U.S. foreign policy whichis applied against Iraq and Iran is a repressive manner. In the face of this American act quickly to over ride this problem. America quickly imposed sanctions on Iraq and Iran. But if it is seen more in America actually implement its policies with different ways.

The United States foreign policy implemented to against Iraq is more offensive than Iran, because US use “Soft policies” toward Iran. The U.S. chose a military option to stop and destroy Iraq's weapons of mass destruction then the

11

As Jatuhkan Sanksi Perusahaan Perorangan Terkait Program Nuklir Iran

http://www.antaratv.com/berita/348486/as-jatuhkan-sanksi-perusahaan-perorangan-terkait-program-nuklir-iran accesed, January 11 2013

8 U.S.in resolving the Iranian nuclear program by diplomacy such as the implementation of the 2003 Tehran agreement and the treaty of Paris of 2004.

In this paper also discusses the success of Iranian developing nuclear technology, which ultimately must confronthatred Iranian American countries. U.S then also accuses its nuclear program will be used as a Weapons of mass destruction. I see, in the khoirul it just shows how the confrontation occured betwen the two sides, Iran and the U.S are caused by Iranian development nuclear technology, but in this context he was not explain how it turn out a policy of nuclear, in which there is a political game that is held by a neo-conservative grioups, and AIPAC is one of them.

Other article from Azarine Delinda12 wrote in tittle: PNAC dalam Kebijakan Luar Negeri WAR on TERRORISM Amerika Serikat pada Era Presiden George W. Bush. Azarine explained In this paper that raised PNAC as a neo conservative groups are very influential in the United States, the group is also doing the same thing, namely AIPAC perform strategies to be taken into account by the United States, other than by way of bureaucracy, they also do opinions public control through the mass media, so that the policies are formulated as planned by this group. What distinguishes the author of this paper is the result of policies with different cases. Azzarine She was not explore deeply, how WAR on TERRORSM policies take many discuss, as some calculate, pro and cons adn how strong the influences of the PNAC in this case as a neo-Conservative group.

12

Delinda, Azarine, 2010, PNAC Dalam Kebijakan Luar Negeri WAR on TERRORISM Amerika Serikat Pada Era Presiden George W. Bush. 2012, Malang: University of Muhammadiyah Malang.

9 The next research entitled Strategi AIPAC Memperkuat Pengaruhnya Dalam Kebijakan politik Luar negeri Amerika Serikat Terhadap Palestina Di Bawah HAMAS13written by Dony Arif Nurhadi14. This paper discusses rejection and the banning of the United States in support of the defense of Israel from attacks the Hamas terrorist as acts based on the existence of Israel interest groups are very influential on Capitol Hill. The Israeli group known as AIPAC (American Israel Public Affairs Committee), which is a group that is coordinated and organized. This group has a professional and a very significant role in terms of lobbying and influence policy makers of U.S. foreign policy. As listed in the Fortune magazine (1997) after the magazine claim that AIPAC is the most powerful group in Washington DC Even AIPAC was runner up position after the American Association of Retired People (AARP).

Through AIPAC, Israel received support from the United States to forbid and reject the participation of Hamas in the legislative elections of 2006. AIPAC also try to give influence policy makers to express rejection and prohibition against the participation of Hamas into the Palestinian Parliament. This is be evidenced in the 2005 AIPAC annual conference ever held, where one of the even on the importance of efforts to the pressure on the U.S. Congress to propose a bill that aims to isolate Hamas and to stop Iran’s nuclear. Besides, AIPAC also reminded the Congress about the rising Islamic Fundalisme and push to combat it.

13

Nurhadi, Dony Arif, 2009, Strategi AIPAC Memperkuat Pengaruhnya Dalam Kebijakan politik

Luar negeri Amerika Serikat Terhadap Palestina Di Bawah HAMAS,

http://publikasi.umy.ac.id/index.php/hi/article/viewFile/404/1515 Accesed May 2 2012 14

Dony Arif Nurhadi is student in Department of International Relations at the University of Muhammadiyah Yogyakarta.

10 In the thesis, he was not explains how non government as the mass media in the United States also have roles, but in the context of this case the role of the mass media is also very important in influencing public opinion. After all that is said by the media sepert Patrick O'Heefernan on Mass Media and American Foreign Policy: Insider Perspectives on Global Journalism and the Foreign Policy Process. Patrick explained that the media is as a means of providing information that is relatively fast and accurate. Here, media can be a source of major considerations in making an actor's foreign policy.15

Other literature from book, Israeli Vs. Iran: The Shadow War, By, Yaakov Kattz and Yoaz Hendel.16 Iran and Israel hostilities have started since along ago. Especially since 1979 revolution has succeded Reza Syah. Israel and U.S as a best alliance make a good ties. Iranian nuclear issue one of the cases writen on this book. Iran ambition to continues and increase its nuclear uranium was judged breached of peace. Both of them (Iran and Israel) was competing on perceptions. The option from Israel to use military strike, because murder and sanction toward Iran will never halt Iran to stop it’s nuclear.

In my thesis more emphasis on significance of AIPAC in U.S foreign policy during the Bush and Obama reign toward Iranian nuclear program. The time limit that I use its be differentiator which previous literatur.

15

Ratnachrista.RS. 2003, “Peran News Corporations Dalam kebijakan Luar Negeri Amerika Serikat Menginvansi Irak , http://journal.unair.ac.id/filerPDF/global05%20retnachrista.pdf accessed May 05 2013

16

Kattz, Yaakov and Yoaz Hendel, Israel VS Iran: The Shadow war, 2012, Potomac Books, Virginia,

11 Table :Review’s Positioning.

RESEARCH ER

TITLE APPROACHES AND METHODS

RESULTS

M. Khoirul

Perbandingan Kebijakan Luar Negeri

Terhadap Iran-Irak Dalam Penyelesaian Dugaan Kepemilikan Senjata Pemusnah Massal, masa George W. Bush 2001-2008.

Eksplanative Foreign Policy (wiliam D, Coplin) policy infuence system

Decision Making Process.

There are similarities between U.S. foreign policy whichis applied against Iraq and Iran is a repressive manner. America quickly imposed sanctions on Iraq and Iran. The United States foreign policy implemented to against Iraq is more offensive than Iran. The U.S choose a military option to stop and destroy Iraq's weapons of mass destruction

Dony Arif Nurhadi Strategi AIPAC Memperkuat Pengaruhnya Dalam Eksplanative Pressure Groups. Decision Making Proses and Foreign Policy analisys

Conduct regular agenda. Influencing policy makers. Pressure to U.S. demands Hamas isolation Bill. Raising the issue of Islam fundalism

12 Kebijakan

politik Luar negeri

Amerika Serikat Terhadap Palestina Di Bawah

HAMAS

and combat it.

Azarine Delinda

PNAC dalam Kebijakan Luar Negeri

WAR on

TERRORISM Amerika Serikat pada Era Presiden George W. Bush

Eksplanative Theory of Interest, Policy Influencers System Model Concept: Epistemic Community

PNAC approach at the level of bureaucracy, mass media influences. Emphasis Terroris, Placing personnel to the Department of Defense and the Department of Foreign Affairs

Yaakov Kattz and Yoaz Hendel

Book, Israeli Vs. Iran: The Shadow War

Iran and Israel hostilities have started since along ago. Israel and U.S as a best alliance make a good ties. Iran ambition to

13 continues and increase its nuclear uranium was judged breached of peace. The option from Israel to use military strike, because murder and sanction toward Iran will never halt Iran to stop it’s nuclear.

Waidatun Hasanah

The

Significance of AIPAC

Influences, in United State’s foreign policy Toward

Iranian nuclear Program

Eksplanative Theory : Desicion Making Process (Bureaucracy political system) Model: Policy Influencer System Model

Concept :Interest Influencer

The significance of AIPAC Influences in the Bush different from Obama era, although both play a role, but the degree of AIPAC Influences in the Obama administration are not too strong. Funding provided to the presidential election. The mass media that dominate the market, owned by part of AIPAC member, which is used to shape public opinion. Hold an annual event consisted of people AIPAC and influential figures in the United States,

14 further strengthening the AIPAC view to America

1.4 Framework 1.4.1. Significance

Significance is the quality of being worthy of attention; importance. But in statistics is the extent to which a result deviates from that expected to arise simply from random variation or errors in sampling.17 Other definition a measure of the confidence that can be placed in a result, esp a subtantive causal hypothesis, as not being merely a matter of chance. Also the imporrtance that it has, usually because it will have an effect on situation or shows something about situation.

But what I mean of the significance here how AIPAC become is influence AIPAC in several line its very important, and it has effect on situation of the U.S foreign policies toward Iranian nuclear program under Bush and Obama administration

1.4.2. Framework Theory Decision Making Process 1.4.2.1. Bureucracy Politic

Graham T. Allison is a political scientist for his book Essence of Decision its Explaining the Cuban Missile Crisis. He developed theoritical of Decision

17

15 making process, and divided into three categories : Rational Actor, Organizational Process Model and Govermental Politics Model or Bureaucratic Politics Model.18

Rational Actors. A rational Actor Model in international relations should have two essensial components : a decision-theoritic and a game-theoritic one. 19_{Rational Model Actor oscillates between decision and choice where” decision} presuppooses a decider and choice among alternatives with reference to some goal. Human beings act in rationality with certain policy concepts, as policy means realitation in anumber of particular instances of any agent’s objective. These concept identify phenomena asa ctions performed by purposeful agent.20

The second, its Bureaucartic Politics. The Bureaucratic Politics has been one of the most frequently appiled frameworks in foreign policy analysis. At the same time, it is safe to say that the model has also been among the most heavily constested concepts in the field. At first glance, the parsimony of the bureaucratic politic is truly appealing. The model focus on bargaining processes between bureaucratic actors within government. Actors are driven by interests of their respective organizations.21

18

Graham T. Allison. Essence of Decision.1971. Boston: Little Brown. On Mas’oed, Mochtar. 1990. Ilmu Hubungan International: Disiplin dan Metodologi. Jakarta: PT pustaka LP3ES Indonesia,page. 234

19

Bendor, Jonathan, and Thomas, 2010, Rethinking Alliosn Models, http://jonathanrenshon.com/Teaching/NPS/DecisionMaking/Bendor_Hammond_Rethinking%20A llisons%20Models.pdf accesed November 14, 2013

20

Making differet Allison,

http://www.academia.edu/592889/Making_a_Difference_Allisons_Three_Models_of_Foreign_Pol icy_Analysis accessed November 14, 2013 read also Allison, Graham T, 1968, Conceptual Model and the Cuban Missile Crisis: National Policy,Organization Process And Bureaucratic Politic, http://www.rand.org/content/dam/rand/pubs/papers/2008/P3919.pdf Accessed October 19, 2013

21

The Bureaucratic Politics Model and Poliheuristic Theory,

http://www.google.com/url?q=http://www.bisa.ac.uk/index.php%3Foption%3Dcom_bisa%26task %3Ddownload_paper%26no_html%3D1%26passed_paper_id%3D20&sa=U&ei=gaRSUsyVGMf

16 The third of three Alliosn model is Govermental Politcs. This Model views the actions of government as political resultants. Unlike other models, this model considers decision as the output of the game played bu government” this model proposed to explain particular formal of the governmental decision was made and the pattern of behaviour emerged.

Bureaucratic politic used to describe the subject of the matter over decision-making process of foreign policy by Graham T. Allison. Bureaucracy political its one of the three model from decision making prosess. Foreign policy emerging from a bargaining22 political process and this is the core of a decision making social process.

Bureaucratic actors that are invloved in the bargaining processes not only differ concerning their policy preferences but also with respect to poer. Generally speaking, power is understood as “effective influence on government decisions and actions”23

Prayer such as president, minister, law maker, advisor and who stand an bureaucracy trying to set goal, with assess various alternatif of means, they set the option through an their intellectual process, so no player who can get all the desired in this bargaining process. All player have different interest and view the issue, this make debatable. As a determint of foreign policy in studying the decision making process of foreign policy, bureaucracy political model emphasizes bargaining games.

3rQeq14GACw&ved=0CDwQFjAI&sig2=cdWrarMLDRtmLtFrSutQng&usg=AFQjCNEMp2YJ3 t0J6IrkeupE75FzTy4XeA, aceessed 10092013

22

Bargaining along regularized channels a players positioned hierarchically within the goverment. 23

17 1.4.3. Framework Political System

This was formulated by David Easton. Systematic Political is not to advance a distinctive view of the metaphysic and epistemology, but based on the views that have been widely accepted, this theory does not explain the origin of norm, but more on how it work and integrated within political system. Framework of political system explains that the resulting policy is the result of the conversion of the input and support in the form of demand processed in a systematic way by the political system, and produce a decision or action which called output. Output is generated in the form of policies, can be accepted or rejected by the environment depends on the input that has been formulated previously.

It can be seen from the policies issued by the United States to Iran, linked to Iran's nuclear case either in the form of sanctions or military attack, the result is formulated from demands of interest groups such as AIPAC. Where the output is a policy to support Israel,

If we describe the scheme can be simplified as follows:

Demand of Group Policy

AIPAC U.S to IRAN

OUTPUT Polit ical

Syst em (Whit e House & Congress) INPUT

IRAN AIPAC

18 One of the variables, inputs include demands and support. The form of the demand does not have to come from the system as in high politics, i.e: war, revolution, etc. But it can be a form of pressure comes from the normal political life, such as economic, cultural, social, educational and so on. Easton claims forms divide into two kinds, namely demands from internal (intra-social environment) as well as the form of demands from external (extra social environment).24

Other variables in the input is support, according to Easton support is a form of behavior or called with a view or state of mind. This form of support is often seen in the form of follow-up action, should it be a statement or stance of the units in the political system or the environment. But support can also be attitudes or strong tendencies to act for others. Support is usually derived from interest groups or political units that require new leadership to address the issue of political system.25

1.4.4. Model of Policy Influencer

The relation between actors in the country with the decision makers are called "policy influence system" or commonly called the system of policy influence. Policy influence system of any country is a series of reciprocal relationships are very complex, between policy makers with its policy influencers. Policy influencers often considered vital, because it is a source of support for policy-makers in executing policy.

24

Easton,David, 1988, Kerangka Kerja Analisa Sistem Politik (terj.), Jakarta: Bina Aksara., 117-120.

25

Easton, David, 2001, Perbandingan Sistem Politik Oleh Mohtar Mas’oed dan Colin MacAndrews. Yogyakarta. Gadjah Mada University Press, page 12

19 In his book, Introduction to International Politic / Introduction to International Politics, Coplin analyze the influence of system structure of four categories similar that raised by the four types of Gabriel Almond, namely the political elite that includes elected officials as party, the administrative elite, elite interests and elite communication, while according to Coplin:

1. Bureaucrats (bureaucratic influencers). The term is used to refer to various individuals and institutions as well as in the executive branch of government organization that helps decision makers, and implementing the policy.

2. Partisan26 (partisan influencers). This Influencers to demands of society translates into a demand politically, that demands to decision makers regarding government policies.

3. Interest groups (interest influencers), consists of a group of people who join together series of the same interests. The group is required to hand over the resources to get the support of decision makers. In this case the question is the source of financial support.

4. The media27 (mass influencers), the formation of an opinion or public opinion climate, that is used by policy makers through the mass media.

26

we distinguish influencers of decision-makers, then the category influencers participants was not included elected officials as proposed Almond, except at the same they play a role in the party. William D. Coplin, 2003,Introduction to International Politics: A Theorical Overview, Pengantar Politik Internasional: Suatu Telaah Teoritis (Translated by: M. Marbun), CV. Sinar Baru, Bandung,second edition, page, 82

27

20 In this study, researchers put more emphasis on the third category, ie interest influence. It because it consists of a group of people joined together with a common interest, which is not large enough to be the basis for the activities of the group, but it is required to hand over the resources to get the support of policy influencers or decision makers else. Most of this interest is economical because people are motivated to act collectively through common interests. The interests of the non-economic nature can also be used as the basis for their actions, especially when there are ties between their ethnic or geographic.28

In the United States, interest groups play an important role in influencing U.S. policy toward Israel, especially through the award of funds to some leaders of the party and the people who have the power to determine the voting, even the interest groups that exist in the domestic United States, able to influence foreign policy. AIPAC is an interest group of influencers from the all is that goes to government board through representatives in the bureaucracy. The groups of Israel in the U.S individually and institutionally is undeniable and this was happened trez ferpent.29

In an article stated that almost all of the Middle East policy of the U.S. government influenced by the Israeli lobby machine, AIPAC especially.30

28

Ibid,85 29

Mustofiah, Dewi, 2011, Dahsyatnya Lobi-lobi Gila Internasional Israel, IRCiSoD, jogjakarta, 153-154.

30

For example, the Israel lobby's demands often lead directly to U.S. support for Israeli actions, such as the Israeli aggression against the Arab countries in 1967, 1973, 1982 and the U.S. invasion of Iraq in 1991 and 2003. Also support the Israeli invasion of Lebanon and Gaza in 2006. In Ibid, p. 156.

21 1.4.5 Interest Groups

In the community life, be it a group or individual we can not let go of than an interest. Interests that could be achieved with a variety of different ways according to the agreement which the group. The origin of the sample taken to articulate the interests of the group to create and made interest groups.31

This interest groups are often understood as a number of people who have similar personality traits, attitudes, beliefs and / or goals agreed to organize themselves to protect and achieve a goal.32

Regarding the limitation or understanding interest groups, Euegene J. Kolb, in his book, A Framework for Political Analysis stated as follows:

"a collectivity of individuals who either formally or informally organize cooperate to protect or promote some common, similar, identical, or a shared interest or goal.33

In connection with the subject of different types or kinds of interest groups, the Almond differentiate into four types or types as follows:

a) Anomic groups, its generally spontaneous groups with a collective response or spontaneusly formed which concern over a specific issue.

31

Drs. Haryanto, Sistem Politik: Suatu Pengantar, Liberty, Yogyakarta:1982, hal. 72, qouted on Gabriel A. Almond and G.B. Powell Jr., Comparative Politics: A Developmental Approach, Little,Brown and Company, 1996, FourthIndian Reprint, 1978,page. 74

32

Kelompok-Kelompok Kepentingan,

http://ambhen.wordpress.com/2010/04/20/kelompok-kepentingan/di acces 8.56 date 2/4/2012 33

Drs. Haryanto, Sistem Politik: Suatu Pengantar, Liberty, Yogyakarta:1982, qouted Eugene J. Kolb, A framework for Political Analysis, Prentice –Hall Inc,Englewood Cliffs, New Jersey, 1978, page. 165

22 b) Non-Associational group, which is formed when there is a common interest to fight (temporary activities). Rarely well organized with dipendent upon the issue activity on the hand.

c) Institutional group, it a interest group that emerged in the political institutions and governance functions articulating interests, such as certain groups within the armed forces, bureaucracy and political parties. It mostly formal with political and social function to the particular interest. And the last is

d) Associational group is group of already exist for the reason profesionals association with their primary activities.,.34

Each group has a different strategy to achieve the effect and the group is trying to making demands on the network to respond to, a strong network was made to influence the parties to be decisive in the policy.

AIPAC can be classified as an interest group that is institutional, as it has a role in influencing U.S. foreign policy. As a group that has members and financial resources AIPAC clearly positioned as one of the factors that have input as a function of interest articulation in influencing the policy process.

1.5. Method of Research 1.5.1 Time Setting.

Eksplanatife In this research, study in 2006-2013, the reason the author select 2004 is because as a starter momentum that due Iran had violated the agreement of Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT). But does enclose the possibility for

34

23 the author to not ignore the events of the past that are relevant, in order to facilitate a historical overview explaining the dynamic of the sequence of events related to the case.

1.5.2 Focus of Research

Research on Significances of AIPAC influence in the U.S. foreign policy toward Iranian nuclear program, the author sets the focus on strategy and Jewish groups in the U.S. foreign policy in addressing the nuclear case of Iran in Bush and Obama Administration.

1.5.3 Data Collection Technique

Data collection techniques associated with data mining techniques conducted through library / study literature, by collecting data from a variety of literature, such as books, journals, newspapers (print), magazines, official documents and internet (internet) related to those discussed by the author. Alternately, data collection techniques initiated by the authors to collect as much data as possible, after the data were collected were selected and grouped into individual chapters to the systematics discussion of writing.

1.5.4 Data Analysis Techniques

This study used qualitative data analysis techniques involving causality. This data type is an information about a phenomenon that is not described using numbers and statistics. The figures are available to describe and interpreted in the form of sentences or paragraphs. The technique of data analysis is done through several stages of the classification of the data that has been selected using theory and concept.

24 1.5.5 Level Analysis of Research

Based on the methodology and the discipline of International Relations, there are two levels of research:

1. level of explanation (Dependent) : is impact on the units of analysis that be observed

2. level of analysis (Independent) : is behaviour of what we would describe and explain35

ANALYSIS UNIT EXPLAN

ATION UNIT

INDIVIDUALS AND GROUPS

NATION AND

STATE

REGIONAL

AND GLOBAL

SYSTEM INDIVIDUALS

AND GROUPS

CORELATIONIS REDUCTIONIS REDUCTIONIS

NATION AND

STATE

INDUCTIONIS CORELATIONIS REDUCTIONIS

REGIONAL

AND GLOBAL

SYSTEM

INDUCTIONIS INDUCTIONIS CORELATIONIS

In this riset: level of analysis (independent) is AIPAC's influence role as a group at lower levels and units of explanation (dependent) policy of the United States as a country the higher level so we can say inductionis

35

Mas’Oed, Mochtar, Tingkat-Tingkat Analisa, Ilmu Hubungan International, LP3S, UGM, Yogjakarta, page 35

25 1.5.6 Type of Research

Explanative is the Type of research that used in this writing. It explan the relationship between the variables, and to test hypotheses previously formulated and analyzed with the relevent theories. So that it will obtain factual data to support the elaboration of issue .

1.6 Hypotheses

Based on the elaboration nature of problem in the back groud I came the profesional hypothesize that the significances of AIPAC influences in U.S. foreign policy toward Iranian nuclear program, it have played significant influences, During 2006 until 2013, but some of periode AIPAC has the difference influences, its because several factors. In addition many pressures that came on every line of life such as political, economic, and social etc. it translate into four kind of influencer bureucracy, participant, interest group and mass media. this is ultimately reflected two different policies during Bush and Obama administration.

26 1.7 Systematics Writing

Systematics of this paper can be described by the arrangement of this chapter as follows:

CHAPTERI: Introduction

In this chapter there are several points, namely: Background Issues, Framework Rationale, Hypothesis, Purpose, and Systematics Research Methodology Writing.

CHAPTERII: U.S Foreign Policy Toward Iranian Nuclear Program

In the Second chapter the author will try to explain about some of the foreign policy of the United States toward Iran, especially those involved in the nuclear case either in the form of sanctions directly to the Persian nation and influence given to the international world in which the authors view that the policy-influenced by several factors. In other hand, the author also describes American and Persian state relation.

CHAPTERIII: AIPAC, and U.S Foreign Policy

In this chapter will be discussed the history and profile of AIPAC, which is a key pillar for all Zionist organizations that exist in the land of Uncle Sam. This chapter also describes about the network or AIPAC relationships that exist in the United States. AIPAC Position in American foreign policy making.

CHAPTERIV: The analyse significances of AIPAC influences in U.S. Foreign Policies toward Iranian nuclear program

27 DESIGN PLOT

Demand _{Capit ol Hill &} Washingt on AIPAC

BUSH OBAM A

THE SIGNIFICANCE OF AIPAC (AMERICAN –ISRAEL

PUBLIC AFFAIR COMMITTEE) INFLUENCES IN U.S

FOREIGN POLICIES TOWARD IRANIAN NUCLEAR

PROGRAM

THESIS

This is arranged and proposed to fulfill a requirement to achieve a bachelor’s title in Political Sciences (S.IP)

Department of International Relations

Waidatun Hasanah NIM (09260139)

INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS DEPARTMENT

FACULTY OF SOCIAL AND POLITICAL SCIENCES

UNIVERSITY OF MUHAMMADIYAH MALANG

2013

ii

ENDORSEMENT SHEET Name : Waidatun Hasanah

Student Number : 09260139

Department : International Relations Faculty : Social and Political Science

Title :THE SIGNIFICANCE OF AIPAC (AMERICAN –ISRAEL PUBLIC AFFAIR COMMITTEE) INFLUENCES IN US. FOREIGN POLICIES TOWARD IRANIAN NUCLEAR PROGRAM

This thesis has been defended in front of Board of Thesis Examiners Faculty of Social and Political Sciences

Department of International Relations and hereby stated PASSED

On: Friday Date: October 18, 2013

Place : The Laboratory of International Relations, UMM Endorse

Dean of Faculty of Social and Political Sciences UMM

Dr. Asep Nurjaman, M.Si

Board of Thesis Examiners:

1. Ruli Inayah Ramadhoan, M.Si ( )

2. Rio Hinata, Ph.D ( )

3. Gonda Yumitro, MA ( )

iii

THESIS APPROVAL SHEET Name : Waidatun Hasanah

Student Number : 09260139

Department : International Relations Faculty : Social and Political Science

Title : THE SIGNIFICANCE OF AIPAC (AMERICAN – ISRAEL PUBLIC AFFAIR COMMITTEE) IN US FOREIGN POLICY TOWARD IRANIAN NUCLEAR PROGRAM

Approved,

Advisor I Advisor II

Gonda Yumitro, MA Helmia Asyathri, S.IP Endorse

Dean of Faculty Head of International Relations

of Social and Political Science Department

iv

THESIS OFFICIAL REPORT Name : Waidatun Hasanah

Student Number : 09260139

Department : International Relations Faculty : Social and Political Science

Title :THE SIGNIFICANCE OF AIPAC (AMERICAN –ISRAEL PUBLIC AFFAIR COMMITTEE) INFLUENCES IN US. FOREIGN POLICIES TOWARD IRANIAN NUCLEAR PROGRAM

Advisor : 1. Gonda Yumitro, MA 2. Helmia Asyathri, S.IP

Timeline :

Date Sign Explanation

Advisor I Advisor II

November 11 2012 Thesis Proposal

November – February Guidance

February 10 2013 Approved Proposal Exam

February 12 2013 Proposal Exam

February-Maret Revisi Seminar

Maret Chapter II Approved

April-July Chapter III Approved

August- September Guidance

October Chapter IV Approved

October 04 2013 Exam Approved

October 18 2013 Thesis Examination

Malang, November 14 2013 Approved,

Advisor

Advisor I Advisor II

Gonda Yumitro, MA Helmia Asyathri, S.IP Endorse

Dean of Faculty of Social and Political Sciences UMM

v

ORIGINALITY PRONOUNCEMENT

The person who has signed below, Name : Waidatun Hasanah

Birth place, date : Batang, December 03 1988 Student Number : 09260139

Faculty : Social and Political Science Department : International Relations

Stated that a thesis entitled:

THE SIGNIFICANCE OF AIPAC (AMERICAN –ISREAL PUBLIC AFFAIR COMMITTEE) INFLUENCES IN U.S FOREIGN POLICY TOWARD IRANIAN NUCLEAR PROGRAM

Is not other, neither partly nor entirely, except in the quotation form where the sources had been stated aright.

Hereby this pronouncement sheet is made authentically, and if this statement is not true, I am ready to obtain sanction which is appopriate with the valid regulation.

Malang, November 14, 2013

vi PREFACE

With all the writer turning thanks to Allah SWT, who has been giving us some mercies and blessing. All grace and guidance and invocation and salutation to the Prophet Muhammad SAW who has guided from the darkness to the brightness and cleverness. so the writer can complete the paper.

This is in the writing of this, my first paper, about the significance of AIPAC (American-Israel Public Affair Committee) influences in the U.S foreign policy toward Iranian nuclear program. Something interesting here, discuss about how the AIPAC try to persuade U.S to halt Iranian nuclear program since 2006-2013. But some of the year the AIPAC significance was decline.

In preparing this paper, the author realize there are still many deficiencies that still need improvement and this paper is still also far from perfection. Therefore criticms and suggestions are constructive, the author would expect, especially from reader of this paper. will be better.

Hopefully this paper can valuable contribution and useful for International Relations studies especially in University of Muhammadiyah Malang.

Malang, November 14, 2013 Author,

vii

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS AND MOTTOS

“You do not alive at once.

You only die once and live every day, do much better.” DEDICATE FOR BOTH OF MY PAREANTS

Thankfulness to Allah SWT.

1. This thesis is presented for my beloved parents, Mulyadi and Suharti, for the supports, motivation, and gives me their blesses, and keep the hope. Sincere Thank you, for my sister Unik Isnaeni and her husband Afid Ridho Aji, happy ever after.

2. An appreciation for the cheers unstoppable supports, and motivation was made during this thesis writing for Haryo Prasodjo.

3. Acknowledgements the author accompanied respect goes to my advisor, Gonda Yumitro., MA and Helmia Asyathri., S.IP. who always advise, guide, and support. For my examiners: Ruli Inayah Ramadhoan, S.Sos. M.Si and Rio Hinata Ph.D thanks you so much.

4. Great thanks for all honorable International Relations lecturers. Mrs. Ayus, Mr. Syaprin, Mr. Tony, Mr. Dion, Mr. Ery, Mrs. Ningrum, Mr. Sam’ani, Mr. Yatno, Mr. Obid, and those who came from other departments. Thakns for share a lot of knowledge.

5. The author thanks goes to, Chotitah, Syarief, Adit, “mbak Fitri”, also my thanks goes to my friends Nuril El- Magfiroh, Caesar KD, Qorie A’yuna, Eny Nurul for the beneficial advices and supports during my study. For all friends graduate 2009 in International Relations department; my regards for our best family moments.: and all those who have helped the authors of this paper may done so well.

viii

TABLE OF CONTENTS

Cover Sheet/ Inner Cover……….……….i

Endorsement Sheet……….………..ii

Thesis Approval Sheet………..………iii

Thesis Official Report...iv

Originality Pronouncement Sheet..……….………..v

Preface……….…………..vi

Acknowledgements and Mottos………..…….………viii

Abstract……….ix

Table of Contents………..………xi

CHAPTER 1 Introduction ... 1

1.1 Back ground ... 1

1.2 Research Question ... 7

1.3 Literatur Review ... 7

1.4 Framework ... 14

1.4.1. Significance ... 14

1.4.2. Framework Theory Decision Making Process ... 14

1.4.2.1. Bureucracy Politic ... 14

1.4.3. Framework political system ... 17

1.4.4. Model of Policy Influencer ... 18

1.4.5 Interest Groups ... 21

1.5. Method of Researchs ... 22

1.5.1 Time Setting. ... 22

1.5.2 Focus of Research ... 23

1.5.3 Data Collection Technique ... 23

1.5.4 Data Analysis Techniques ... 23

1.5.5 Level Analysis of Research ... 24

ix

1.6 Hypotheses ... 25

1.7 Systematics Writing ... 26

CHAPTER II U.S FOREIGN POLICY TOWARD IRANIAN NUCLEAR PROGRAM ... 28

2.1 American and Persia Relation: When the Goliath Assault “Axis of Evil” ... 28

2.2 How its Threat? ... 30

2.3 AMERICAN RESPONSES ON IRANIAN NUCLEAR ...35

2.3.1 The Bush Administration Responses on Iranian nuclear Program. ... 36

2.3.2 The Obama Administration Responses. ... 41

CHAPTER III AIPAC AND THE US FOREIGN POLICIES ... 58

3.1. AIPAC Delineation ... 58

3.2. Decision Making Process ... 60

3.2.1 Government ... 60

A. Legislative ... 60

B. Executive ... 61

C. Judicative ... 62

3.3. Elite Bureaucracy and Iranian Fobia ... 63

3.4. Non State Actor ... 65

A. Mass Media ... 65

B. Interest Group ... 67

3.5. AIPAC Position in American Foreign Policy Making ... 68

3.6. Money Behind Election... ... .71

3.7. AIPAC Interest... ... 75

CHAPTER IV THE SIGNIFICANCE OF AIPAC INFLUENCES ... 79

AIPAC pressure in A Changing US FP ... 81

CHAPTER V CONCLUTION ... 96

Suggestion ... 97

x TABLE

Table 1.1 Review’s Positioning. ... 11

Table 2.1 U.S And IRAN Relations ... 32

Table 2.2 The Timing Sanctions For Iranian Nuclear Program. ... 52

Table 3.1 PAC’s Contribution on election ... 74

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