Exhibit 103: BCH CROCI DuPont
Exhibit 103: BCH CROCI DuPont
2014E 2015E
2016E
2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E
GCI turnover (X)
0.45X 0.48X 0.51X 0.56X
EBITDA margins (%)
Cash conversion (X)
0.91X 0.89X 0.88X 0.87X
Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research.
Bangkok Chain Hospital: Summary financials
Profit model (Bt mn)
Balance sheet (Bt mn)
Total revenue
Cash & equivalents
Cost of goods sold
Accounts receivable
Other current assets
Other operating profit/(expense)
0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Total current assets
Net PP&E
Depreciation & amortization
Net intangibles
Total investments
Interest income
0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Other long-term assets
Interest expense
Total assets
Income/(loss) from uncons. subs.
Accounts payable
Pretax profits
Short-term debt
Income tax
Other current liabilities
Total current liabilities
Long-term debt
Net income pre-preferred dividends
Other long-term liabilities
Preferred dividends
0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Total long-term liabilities
Net income (pre-exceptionals)
Total liabilities
Post-tax exceptionals
Net income
Preferred shares
Total common equity
EPS (basic, pre-except) (Bt)
0.23 0.27 0.28 0.28 Minority interest
EPS (basic, post-except) (Bt)
EPS (diluted, post-except) (Bt)
0.23 0.27 0.28 0.28 Total liabilities & equity
DPS (Bt)
Dividend payout ratio (%)
68.2 50.0 50.0 50.0 BVPS (Bt)
Free cash flow yield (%)
Growth & margins (%)
Sales growth
5.3 14.4 15.8 15.3 CROCI (%)
EBITDA growth
EBIT growth
Net income growth
EPS growth
Inventory days
Gross margin
32.1 32.9 31.7 29.6 Receivables days
EBITDA margin
26.7 26.7 25.2 23.7 Payable days
EBIT margin
19.4 20.2 19.0 16.9 Net debt/equity (%)
Interest cover - EBIT (X)
Cash flow statement (Bt mn)
Net income pre-preferred dividends
D&A add-back
P/E (analyst) (X)
Minorities interests add-back
Net (inc)/dec working capital
EV/EBITDA (X)
Other operating cash flow
0.0 0.0 0.0 EV/GCI (X)
Cash flow from operations
Dividend yield (%)
Capital expenditures
Cash flow from investments
Dividends paid (common & pref)
Inc/(dec) in debt
Common stock issuance (repurchase)
Other financing cash flows
Cash flow from financing
Total cash flow
49.3 Note: Last actual year may include reported and estimated data. Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Research estimates.
Siloam (SILO.JK): Leveraged to highest growth market, but priced in; maintain Neutral
What's changed
Investment Profile
We have revised down our 2014E-2020E assumptions for new hospital additions for Siloam to 3-4 per year (4-8
Low
High
previously), as this appears a more realistic target given slower new hospital additions than expected since its Growth
Growth
listing last year. Consequently, we have reduced SILO’s 2014E-2016E EBITDA by 18%-27% and EPS by 48%-60%. Returns *
We believe our new hospital addition forecasts are achievable, as SILO has added 3-5 new hospitals per year over
40th 60th 80th 100th Siloam International Hospitals (SILO.JK)
Percentile
20th
Implications Asia Pacific Consumer Peer Group Average
For a complete description of the investment Our revised forecast still points to a 1,190bp expansion in CROCI and a DACF CAGR of 36% for SILO over
* Returns = Return on Capital
profile measures please refer to the
2014E-2020E, which would rank it in quartile 1 for growth and quartile 2/1 for CROCI during 2014E- disclosure section of this document.
2017E/2018E-2020E.
Key data
Current
14,950 SILO is a leading hospital company operating in the highest growth ASEAN-4 healthcare market - Indonesia,
Price (Rp)
12 month price target (Rp)
and we expect SILO to leverage its strong brand power and ride on its parent company Lippo Karawaci’s
Market cap (Rp bn / US$ mn)
Foreign ownership (%)
(one of Indonesia’s leading property developer) aggressive roll-out of townships and property projects to grow its hospitals footprint and capture the strong underlying growth.
12/13 12/14E 12/15E 12/16E
EPS (Rp)
That said, given recent share price performance (outperforming Jakarta index by 34% in the past 3 months),
EPS growth (%)
EPS (diluted) (Rp)
we believe that the positive prospects ahead have been priced in, as stock valuations look high relative to
EPS (basic pre-ex) (Rp)
peer average, and hence we maintain our Neutral rating. Our analysis suggests that the share price is already 76.8
36.9 39.3 27.0 assuming 2015E-2016E CROCI of 17.4%, which is higher than GSe of 16.1%, although the share price implied 18.1
EV/EBITDA (X)
Dividend yield (%)
10-year forward EPS CAGR of 47% is still lower than our 2014E-2020E EPS CAGR of 63%.
We now employ 2-year forward Director’s Cut (EV/GCI vs. CROCI/WACC) methodology to value the ASEAN
Price performance chart
healthcare stocks. Consequently, we raise our 12-m TP to Rp15,500 (+4% upside potential; prior TP of Rp10,000
was based on SOTP). The stock does not have a long trading history, but it trades at a premium to peers, which
we think is fair given its superior growth prospects and our expectations that it will achieve quartile 1 CROCI by
2018E. Our TP implies 2015E/2016E EV/EBITDA of 27.9X / 18.7X.
Key risks
Delays / faster-than-expected ramp-up in hospital additions, higher/lower than expected competition,
higher/lower than expected barriers of entry to growth. Mar-14
Siloam International Hospitals (L) Jakarta SE Composite Index (R)
Share price performance (%)
3 month 6 month 12 month
Absolute
42.4 55.7 -- Rel. to Jakarta SE Composite Index
33.9 37.0 --
Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Research estimates, FactSet. Price as of 6/02/2014 close.
Exhibit 104: We expect 2014E-2020E revenue/
Exhibit 106: We believe 3-4 hospital additions EBITDA CAGR of 29%/40%
Exhibit 105: Share price implies higher-than-GSe
2015E-2016E CROCI; lower-than-GSe 10-year EPS
p.a. is realistic