Exhibit 110: SILO’s CROCI DuPont
Exhibit 110: SILO’s CROCI DuPont
GCI turnover (X)
EBITDA margins (%)
Cash conversion (X)
Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research.
Siloam International Hospitals: Summary financials
Profit model (Rp bn)
Balance sheet (Rp bn)
Total revenue
Cash & equivalents
Cost of goods sold
Accounts receivable
Other current assets
Other operating profit/(expense)
2.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 Total current assets
Net PP&E
Depreciation & amortization
Net intangibles
Total investments
Interest income
12.0 15.5 22.1 23.6 Other long-term assets
Interest expense
Total assets
Income/(loss) from uncons. subs.
Others
0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Accounts payable
Pretax profits
Short-term debt
Income tax
Other current liabilities
Total current liabilities
Long-term debt
Net income pre-preferred dividends
Other long-term liabilities
Preferred dividends
0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Total long-term liabilities
Net income (pre-exceptionals)
Total liabilities
Post-tax exceptionals
Net income
Preferred shares
Total common equity
EPS (basic, pre-except) (Rp)
Minority interest
EPS (basic, post-except) (Rp)
EPS (diluted, post-except) (Rp)
Total liabilities & equity
DPS (Rp)
Dividend payout ratio (%)
0.0 10.0 10.0 13.3 BVPS (Rp)
Free cash flow yield (%)
Growth & margins (%)
Sales growth
40.0 42.9 34.4 30.4 CROCI (%)
EBITDA growth
32.8 60.6 49.4 49.7 ROE (%)
EBIT growth
Net income growth
EPS growth
Inventory days
Gross margin
26.3 27.7 29.2 31.9 Receivables days
EBITDA margin
11.2 12.6 14.0 16.1 Payable days
EBIT margin
3.1 4.2 5.7 8.4 Net debt/equity (%)
Interest cover - EBIT (X)
Cash flow statement (Rp bn)
Net income pre-preferred dividends
D&A add-back
P/E (analyst) (X)
Minorities interests add-back
0.3 4.2 10.8 21.4 P/B (X)
Net (inc)/dec working capital
EV/EBITDA (X)
Other operating cash flow
31.5 39.4 48.1 62.7 EV/GCI (X)
Cash flow from operations
Dividend yield (%)
Capital expenditures
Cash flow from investments
Dividends paid (common & pref)
Inc/(dec) in debt
Common stock issuance (repurchase)
Other financing cash flows
Cash flow from financing
Total cash flow
Note: Last actual year may include reported and estimated data. Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Research estimates.
IHH Healthcare (IHHH.KL): Growth potential priced in; maintain Neutral
What's changed
Investment Profile
Based on our deep dive analysis of the HC systems, trends and competitive landscape which points to a positive
Low
High
outlook for ASEAN-4, we believe that Malaysia’s private hospital sector outlook – especially from medical tourism Growth
Growth
– is stronger than our initial expectations. We hence raise our 2014E-2016E EPS by 1%-10% to mainly factor in Returns *
stronger inpatient volume growth for its Malaysia hospital operations.
Volatility
Volatility
Our revised forecast points to a 470bp expansion in CROCI and a DACF CAGR of 13% for IHH over 2014E-2020E, 100th
Percentile
20th
40th 60th 80th
IHH Healthcare Bhd (IHHH.KL)
which would rank IHH in quartile 2 for growth and quartile 4 for CROCI within our coverage universe over 2014E-
Asia Pacific Consumer Peer Group Average
2016E.
* Returns = Return on Capital
For a complete description of the investment profile measures please refer to the disclosure section of this document.
Implications
We maintain our Neutral rating on IHH as while we like IHH’s dominant position in all key markets – Singapore,
Key data
Current
Malaysia and Turkey – and its new ventures into India and HK, we believe that valuations have largely priced it in. 4.17
Price (RM)
12 month price target (RM)
Market cap (RM mn / US$ mn)
We also expect IHH’s growth trajectory to slow in the longer term – our forecasts suggest that IHH will drop to
Foreign ownership (%)
quartile 3 within our coverage universe in terms of DACF growth post 2016E – due to more limited growth
prospects in Singapore (although partly to be offset by opening of new HK hospital) once Novena ramps up to a 12/16E
12/13 12/14E 12/15E
EPS (RM)
more mature level. We also expect many other hospital companies to exhibit stronger growth as they will have
EPS growth (%)
EPS (diluted) (RM)
very sizeable new projects that will kick in post 2016E.
EPS (basic pre-ex) (RM)
EV/EBITDA (X)
Dividend yield (%)
3.7 4.4 5.0 We now employ 2-year forward Director’s Cut (EV/GCI vs. CROCI/WACC) methodology to value the ASEAN 5.8
healthcare stocks.
We raise our 12-m TP to RM4.20 (+1% upside potential; prior TP of RM3.50 was based on SOTP) to reflect our earnings revisions and shift to a new valuation methodology (2016E Director’s Cut now vs. 2014 SOTP
Price performance chart
4.3 previously). Our TP implies 2015E/16E EV/EBITDA of 17.6X / 15.1X. 2,050
4.0 Key risks 1,900
3.9 Stronger/weaker than expected execution on new hospitals; lower/higher than expected volatility in FX/interest 1,850
3.5 Jun-13 1,650 Sep-13 Dec-13 Mar-14
IHH Healthcare Bhd (L)
Kuala Lumpur Composite (R)
Share price performance (%)
3 month 6 month 12 month
Absolute
Rel. to Kuala Lumpur Composite
Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Research estimates, FactSet. Price as of 6/02/2014 close.
Exhibit 111: We expect 2014E-2020E revenue/
Exhibit 113: Expect bed additions and occupancy EBITDA CAGR of 13%/14%
Exhibit 112: Share price implies similar 2015E-
2016E CROCI and 10-year EPS CAGR as GSe
rates to improve in 2014E-2016E
Occupancy rates (%) - RHS RM mn
Revenue
EBITDA - RHS
Share price implied
GSe
2011-13
Available beds
2014-2020E
EBITDA CAGR = 14% Rev. CAGR = 13%
10,000 Rev. CAGR = 14% EBITDA CAGR = 21%
09 10 11 12 13 E E E E E E E 40% 2009
EPS CAGR
Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research.
Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Global Investment
Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Global Investment
Research.
Research.
Exhibit 116: EV/EBITDA multiple appears fair through 2020E
Exhibit 114: IHH to stay in 4Q in terms of CROCI
Exhibit 115: EV/GCI is at 0.5X standard deviation
currently, above average but supported by rising CROCI
2013 2014E 2015E 2016E 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E
EBITDA growth (%)
EV/EBITDA
Average +1 Std dev -1 Std dev
CROCI Quartiling
CROCI (%) - RHS
EV/GCI
EV/GCI (X)
CROCI (%)
EV/EBITDA (x)
EBITDA growth (%)
21 +1std = 20.4X
1.6 +1std = 1.6X
Average = 19.3X
Bangkok Dusit
3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 1.5 Average = 1.5X
Bangkok Chain
18 -1std = 18.2X
-1std = 1.4X
Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research.
Source: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research.
Source: Company data, Datastream, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research.