Conclusions Universitas Negeri Manado 07 Physics Papers

Proceedings of MatricesFor IITTEP – ICoMaNSEd 2015 ISBN: 978-602-74204-0-3 Physics Page 223 Among the common parameters, data of epicentres given by BMKG for all events during 2012-2015 are consistent with those provided by the GLOBAL CMT catalog. This is clearly seen in two figures for comparison. Figure 4 shows distribution of epicentres, spanning from the west in northern Sumatra that includes Aceh and westcoast of Sumatra to the east in eastern provinces that include northern parts of Sulawesi, Maluku and Papua, with each location is marked as red dots, which is very much the same pattern given by the GLOBAL CMT catalog marked as green dots in Figure 5. One plausible reason for the coincidence of the above data given by both institutions is that earthquake epicentres are determined by e ither seismic stations or satellites using measurements at the Earth’s surface with minimum disturbed noises relative to measurements of other parameters, such as magnitude, origin time and depth. Keep this in mind, with only one parameter agrees well with the GLOBAL CMT catalog we cannot rely on earthquake analyses using the common parameters usually used by BMKG. For better prediction of potentially tsunamigenic events at various depths and magnitudes as well as better estimates of origin times and epicentres, we need to examine and propose new tsunami parameters. As pointed out by Madlazim 2011; 2013, the need for rapid information of high accuracy is a must for appropriate tsunami assessment in order to minimise false warnings that may lead to fatal decisions concerning with hazard mitigation. The weakness of the existing methods in determining earthquake magnitudes accurrately and quickly indicates that two main factors required for a tsunami alert triggered by a major earthquake below the sea level are accuracy and rapidness of information. These shortcomings must be then overcome to assess the magnitude of a destructive tsunamigenic earthquake accurately and quickly as they are key solutions to the problem of a reliable tsunami early warning system Katsumata et al., 2013. If this is achieved, then disaster risk reduction program run in the country particularly victims due to disastrous events, such as earthquakes and tsunamis, can be reduced to a minimum.

4. Conclusions

This study has carefully examined and evaluated the Ina-TEWS performance using common earthquake parameters, including magnitudes, origin times, depths and epicentres of events occurring in a region of the Indonesian archipelago recorded by BMKG during a current period of 2012-2015. The results are then compared with those provided by the GLOBAL CMT catalog. While the first three parameters given by the two institutions have significant differences, the distribution of epicentres for all cases during years considered in this study agrees largely one to another. In short, the Ina-TEWS performance needs to be improved for a better prediction, analysis of tsunamigenic earthquakes and tsunami hazard assessment in terms of both accuracy and rapidness. This finding therefore calls for an alternative method of analyses of tsunamigenic earthquakes that include rapid determination of magnitudes accurately using tsunami parameters other than the present parameters proposed in this study. Acknowledgements The authors sincerely thank the Indonesian Agency for Geophysics, Climatology and Meteorology BMKG in Jakarta and the GLOBAL CMT for providing full supports of all the necessary data for the work. References Boore, D. M., Joyner, W. B. Fumal, T. E. 1997. Equations for estimating horizontal response spectra and peak accelerations from western North American earthquakes: A summary of recent work. Seismological Research Letters, Vol. 68, No. 1, pp. 128-153. Proceedings of MatricesFor IITTEP – ICoMaNSEd 2015 ISBN: 978-602-74204-0-3 Physics Page 224 Delouis, B., Charlety, J. Vallée, M. 2009. A method for rapid determination of moment magnitude M w for moderate to large earthquakes from the near-field spectra of strong- motion records MWSYNTH. Bulletin of Seismological Society of America, Vol. 99, No. 3, pp. 1827-1840. Dziewonski, A., Chou, T. A. Woodhouse, J. H. 1981. Determination of earthquake source parameters from waveform data for studies of global and regional seismicity, Journal of Geophysical Research, Vol. 86, pp. 2825-2852. Ekström, G. 1994. Rapid earthquake analysis utilizes the internet: Computers in Physics, Vol. 8, pp. 632-638. Katsumata, A., Ueno, H. Aoki, S., Yoshida Y. Barrientos, S. 2013. Rapid magnitude determination from peak amplitudes at local stations. Earth, Planets and Space, Vol. 65, pp. 843 –853. Kawakatsu, H. 1995. Automated near-realtime CMT inversion. Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 22, doi: 10.102995GL02341. Lomax, A. and A. Michelini, 2009. � Wpd : A duration-amplitude procedure for rapid determination of earthquake magnitude and tsunamigenic potential from P waveforms. Geophysical Journal International, Vol. 176, Iss. 1, pp. 200-214. Madlazim, 2011. Towards Indonesian tsunami early warning system by using rapid rupture duration calculation. Science of Tsunami Hazards, Vol. 30, No. 4. Madlazim, 2013. Assessment of tsunami generation potential through rapid analysis of seismic parameters – a case study: comparison of earthquakes of 6 April and of 25 October 2010 of Sumatra. Science of Tsunami Hazards, Vol. 32, No. 1. McCalpin, J. P. 2010. Earthquake Magnitude Scale. GEO-HAZ Consulting Inc., Crestone, Colorado 81131, USA. Appendix 1. Proceedings of MatricesFor IITTEP – ICoMaNSEd 2015 ISBN: 978-602-74204-0-3 Physics Page 225 THE ANALYSIS INFILTRATION HORTON MODELS AROUND THE SAGO BARUK PALM Arenga microcarpha Becc FOR SOIL AND WATER CONSERVATION Marianus 1 1 Department of Physics Education , Faculty of Mathematics and Natural Science, State University of Manado, Minahasa, Indonesia marianus_14yahoo.com Abstract Infiltration is one components of the hydrolocal cycle and very important in conservation of soil and water. Sago baruk palmArenga microcarpha Becc is an endemic plant and used as a source of local food to the citizen in Sangihe Island. This plant also known by locally people as plants to protect soil and water availability. The aim of this research was to analyze the rate of infiltration and gain empirical equation models infiltration capacity around sago baruk plants in different seasons and different altitude. The research was conducated at the Gunung village, District of Central Tabukan Sangihe in June to September 2014. Gunung village is spread from the coast to the top of the hill with an altitude of ±600 meters above sea level. Land used is mixed gardens, coconut, cloves nutmeg and Sago. Tools or material used are ; a set of double ring infiltrometer, soil tester, GPS, clinometer and Stopwatch. The method used is survey methods, and techniques of data analysis is descriptive analysis, t-test, and FANOVA-test. The results of this research showed that the infiltration rate near a cluster of Baruk sago is higher than the outside cluster in the second season, the infiltration rate is higher in the dry season than the wet season. The result Obtained by the model equations infiltration and the constant infiltration capacity around baruk sago plant in accordance with the model standard proposed by Horton and sago baruk plants very suitable for soil and water conservation. Keywords : Horton model infiltration, conservation, sago baruk

1. Introduction