Introduction 1 Semarang City s Vulnerability 9 National and City Policy 35 Scenario Development 44 Strategy and Priority for Actions 50

Table of Content

1. Introduction 1

1.1. Background 1

1.2. Goal 3

1.3. Objectives 3

1.4. Scope of Planning 3

1.5. City Resilience Strategy Planning Stages 5

1.5.1. Preparation. 5 1.5.2. Brainstorming 6 1.5.3. Consultation and Prioritization 6 1.5.4. Finalization of City Resilience Strategy Document 6

1.6. The CRS Document Organization 7

2. Semarang City s Vulnerability 9

2.1. Climate Change Trend in Semarang City 9

2.1.1. Temperature 9 2.1.2. Rainfall 12 2.1.3. Increase in Sea Level Rise 14 2.1.4. Wind Pattern 16

2.2. Vulnerable Areas and Its Impact 18

2.2.1. Lowland Regions which are Exposed to Coastal Flood and SLR 19 2.2.2. Settlement Areas Located in Riverbed which are Exposed to Flooding 23 2.2.3. Hilly Areas which are Exposed to High Winds 24 2.2.4. Areas which are Exposed to Land Movement, Landslides, and Abrasion 25 2.2.5. Settlement Areas in Urban Fringe which Far away from Water Sources 27 2.2.6. Areas as a Node of Movement 28 2.2.7. Functional Areas of Central Business District 30 2.2.8. Industrial Areas 30

2.3. Vulnerable Groups 32

3. National and City Policy 35

3.1. National Policy to Respond Climate Change 35

3.2. Semarang City Development Policies 39

3.2.1. Direction and Long-term Development Priorities 39 3.2.2. Direction and Medium Term Development Priorities 41

3.3. Current Issues and Dynamics of Semarang s Urban Development Activities 42

4. Scenario Development 44

4.1. Assumptions 44

4.2. Climate Change Scenario Development in Semarang City 45

4.2.1. Dry Season Scenario 45 4.2.2. Dry Season Scenario After Dam Development and Without Upstream Conservation 45 4.2.3. Dry Season Scenario After Dam Development With Upstream Conservation 46 4.2.4. Rainy Season Scenario 46 4.2.5. Scenario of Flooded Areas due to SLR 48 4.2.6. SLR Scenario with Variation Area of Mangrove Conservation 48

5. Strategy and Priority for Actions 50

5.1. Goals and Strategies for Climate Change Resilience 50

5.1.1. Water Sector Resilience Strategies 50 5.1.2. Infrastructure Sector Resilience Strategies 51 5.1.3. Environment Sector Resilience Strategies 52 5.1.4. Marine and Fisheries Sector Resilience Strategies 52 5.1.5. Human Resource Capacity and Institutional Strategies 53

5.2. Criteria for Resilience Strategy 54

5.3. Prioritization Process 58

5.4. Qualitative CBA and Prioritized Strategies 62

6. Implementation and ME 65