7. Semarang long coastline is 25 km from the east to the west. The ideal thickness of mangroves for coastal protection is 100 meters, so the ideal total area of mangroves to coastal city of Semarang
is about 250 hectares. 8. The total area of current fishponds is according to data in 2009 covering 1002.1 hectares area.
The rate of decreasing fishpond is about 42 hectares within 5 years DKP, 2010 and the economic loss per hectare of ponds is equal to Rp.18 Million.
4.2. Climate Change Scenario Development in Semarang City
4.2.1. Dry Season Scenario
Based on the trend data in Semarang City, the average of the dry season is 3 three months at MAM. Along with climate change, drought is expected to become longer presumably at 4 four months. If
the current Semarang City s population is for about 1.4 million inhabitants, then in the next 50 years Semarang s future population will be 2.9 million inhabitants. The dry season, which is getting longer,
will have effect on the availability of the PDAM taps water. If the current 60 population of the city not served by PDAM and there is no additional raw water and the long dry season remained about
four months, then 80 of the population in 50 years from now will not get service PDAM taps. If within a near one-month dry season becomes longer, the number of people who are not served
taps will increase up to 70 and in 50 years that will come, it is predicted approximately 85 of the population does not get service PDAM taps.
4.2.2. Dry Season Scenario After Dam Development and Without Upstream Conservation
Jatibarang Reservoir Development which will be completed in 2015 will give positive implications although still leaves a problem. With the reservoir development but without appropriate
conservation in 2015 and long 3-month dry season there will be 54 of people without clean water taps and underserved that number increased to 63 when the dry season occurred 1 month longer.
With the same scenario, by 2050 the number of people without clean water taps increase at 78 and 82.
45
4.2.3. Dry Season Scenario After Dam Development With Upstream Conservation
Conservation Jatibarang upstream reservoir will provide a better effect for water availability. Reservoir development supported by conservation activities, in 2015 and it is assumed that there will
be 3-months long dry season, the number of people without clean water taps served is about 47 of people and that number increased to 58 when the dry season occurred 1 month longer. With
the same scenario, by 2050 the number of people without clean water taps service increase at 75 and 80.
Table 4.1: Scenario Dry Season in Semarang City
Population:1.4 Millions Current
Population:1.4 Millions Current
Population: 2.9 Millions Next 50 years
Population: 2.9 Millions Next 50 years
People Uncovered by PDAM W ed by PDAM Water Tap
3 Months Dry Season 60
60 80
80 4 Months Dry Season
70 70
85 85
Post Development of Dam
wo Upstream Conservation
w Upstream Conservation
wo Upstream Conservation
w Upstream Conservation
3 Months Dry Season 54
47 78
75 4 Months Dry Season
63 58
82 80
4.2.4. Rainy Season Scenario
