CEMENT CAPACITY COULD ALMOST DOUBLE IN THE NEXT 5 YEARS
4
New Cement Capacity from Potential Foreign and Domestic Players By 2017
No Company
Targeted Plant Location
Capacity mn tons
Investment US mn
Remarks + Local Partner
1 Siam Cement Thail and
West Java 2. 0
250 Greenf iel d, Sukhabumi
2 CNBM China
Cent ral Java 2. 6
350 Greenf iel d, Semen Grobogan
3 Bant en – Zhej iang
Bant en 2. 0
700 ? Pl ant rel ocat ion f rm Zhej iang t o Bant en
4 Anhui Conch Cement China
- Tanj ung - Tanah Grogot
- Pont ianak - West Papua
Various - Sout h Kal imant an
- East Kal imant an - West Kal imant an
- West Papua 15. 0
4. 1 4. 1
4. 1 2. 6
2, 350 400
600 600
750 Greenf iel d
Greenf iel d Greenf iel d
Greenf iel d Greenf iel d
5 Wil mar Local
West Java 1. 5
n. a Greenf iel d
T O T A L 23. 1
3, 650
New Cement Capacity from Existing Players 2012 – 2017 No
Company Targeted Plant
Location Capacity
mn tons Investment
US mn Remarks
1 Semen Gresik Group
Java, Sumat era, Sul awesi 12. 8
1, 500 Upgrading + green brownf iel d
2 Indocement
Java, Kal imant an 7. 0
1, 100 Cement Mil l + brown greenf iel d
3 Hol cim
East Java 1. 7
400 Greenf iel d
4 Bosowa
Java, Sul awesi 2. 8
300 Cement Mil l + Brownf iel d
5 Semen Andal as
Sumat era 1. 5
556 Greenf iel d
T O T A L 25. 8
3, 856
5
COMPARISON: CEMENT CONSUMPTION PER CAPITA 2011
Source: UBS; Deut sche, Indonesi a Cement Associ at i on
199
kg kg
200 400
600 800
1000 1200
1400 1600
1800 2000
C hin
a S
in ga
po re
M ala
ys ia
Vie tn
am Th
ail an
d I n
do ne
sia I n
dia Ph
ilip in
a
kg capit a
6
Source: Indonesian Cement Associat ion BPS St at ist ic
Growth :
1.1
Growth :
9.7
Growth :
4.2
Growth :
1.8
Growth :
6.6
Growth :
5.8
Growth :
19.4
Domest ic consumpt ion LHS GDP growt h RHS
mio t ons
40. 8 48. 0
34. 3 39. 1
27. 2 27. 5
30. 2 31. 5
32. 1 34. 2
38. 1
6. 10 12. 6
6. 40 5. 6
4. 7 5. 1
5. 4
4. 4 6. 3
6. 1 4. 60
6. 50 6. 0
11. 5
4. 2 9. 7
2. 5 6. 6
1. 8 1. 1
5. 8 17. 7
0. 0 10. 0
20. 0 30. 0
40. 0 50. 0
2002 2003
2004 2005
2006 2007
2008 2009
2010 2011
8M-12 0. 0
10. 0 20. 0
Cement growt h RHS
F F
21, 0
6, 5 18, 1
1, 0 16, 9
1, 9 20, 0
2, 3 22, 7
3, 0 23, 7
3, 5 23, 7
3, 8 25, 2
5, 0 25, 5
6, 0 26, 9
5, 1 28, 2
6, 0 32, 2
5, 9 32, 8
6, 2 34, 2
6, 6 39, 2
8, 8 21, 0
4, 8
5 10
15 20
25 30
35 40
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 1H- 12
Bag Consumpt i on Bulk Consumpt i on
SO FAR INFRASTRUCTURE EXPANSION HAS BEEN RELATIVELY SLOW
Bag and Bulk cement consumpt ion million t ons
7
Source: Indonesia Cement Association and the Company’s data
DOMESTIC MARKET CONSUMPTION 2011
Retail residential sector is the largest consumer of cement in Indonesia
8
Bag
80
Bulk 20
Key Drivers of Domestic cement demand:
•
National Economic Growth
•
Favorable Interest Rate Environment
•
Infrastructure Expansion
•
Per Capita Consumption increase from current low levels
•
Ready-mix inf rast ruct ure:
±
60
•
Fabricat or pre-cast , f iber cement , cement based indust ry:
±
35
•
Proj ect s mort ar, render:
±
5
•
Ready-mix inf rast ruct ure:
±
60
•
Fabricat or pre-cast , f iber cement , cement based indust ry:
±
35
•
Proj ect s mort ar, render:
±
5
•
Housing:
±
90
•
Cement based indust ry:
±
10
•
Housing:
±
90
•
Cement based indust ry:
±
10
± ±
Source: Int ernal Research
9
INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENT ACCORDING TO MP3EI 2012 – 2017
Corridor Road
Railway Track Harbor
Airport Length Km
Invest Length Km
Invest Invest
Invest
Sumat era 2, 130
IDR 229 T 1, 067
IDR 70 T IDR 1 T
IDR 4 T
Java 1, 481
IDR 203 T 336
IDR 25 T IDR 22 T
IDR 8 T
Kal imant an 735
IDR 18 T 388
IDR 35 T IDR 0. 5 T
IDR 3 T
Sul awesi 49
IDR 2 T IDR 0. 5 T
Bal i-NT 10
IDR 2 T 50
IDR 12 T IDR 1 T
Papua Mal uku 1, 535
IDR 53 T IDR 55 T
Total 5, 940
IDR 507 T 1, 841
IDR 142 T IDR 79 T
IDR 16 T
Total Investment : IDR 744 T
Road Development Plan 5, 940 Km Total Investment IDR 507 T
Tol l Road Lengt h KM
Invest
•
Sumat era 382
IDR 229 T
•
Java 1, 481
IDR 203 T
•
Kalimant an 84
IDR 18 T
•
Sulawesi 49
IDR 2 T
•
Bali-NT 10
IDR 2 T
•
Papua Maluku
Total 2, 006
IDR 387 T Percentage
76
Non Tol l Road Lengt h KM
Invest
•
Sumat era 1, 748
IDR 56 T
•
Java
•
Kalimant an 651
IDR 11 T
•
Sulawesi
•
Bali-NT
•
Papua Maluku 1, 535
IDR 53 T
Total 3, 934
IDR 120 T Percentage
24
10
MARKET UPDATE
SMGR Corporat e Present at ion Sept ember 2012
Region Population
Cement Consump-
tion ton Cement
Consumpt. Per Capita
kg
1. JAVA 136, 563, 142
