External factors The Determinant Factors Of Foreign Policy Of Turkey In Maintaining Its

62

1. External factors

1 Nature of the World Economy In this case, the factor of economy is the big factor in forming this Turkeys foreign policy. According to Holsti, trends and developments in the world economy have more immediate impacts on the welfare policies of different countries. He also said that the government can obtain technical assistance from another countries to develope trade commodities. 142 The European Union is one of the most important investment destination for Turkish companies. In 2012 there were about 150.000 Turkish entrepreneurs operating in the European Union and employing over 600.000 workers. 143 The European market is also the most important area for Turkey to expand its market. The establishment of the Customs Union between Turkey and the European Union has contributed tremendously in raising the competitiveness of Turkish companies. Today, the EU is Turkeys number one import and export partner while Turkey ranks 7 th in the EUs top import and 5th in export markets. 144 Table IV.A.1: EU-Turkey Trade In Goods statistics Year EU Import EU export Balance 2011 48,4 13,3 24,7 2012 48,6 75,4 26,8 2013 50,4 77,8 27,4 Source: European Commission statistic 145 142 Ibid, p: 273 143 European Commission, Mutual benefits of the EU-Turkey Customs Union, 1042014, [database online], available from: http:europa.eurapidpress-release_SPEECH-14-317_en.htm , accessed at 9102014 144 Salen Akses, Implıcatıons Of Free Trade Agreements On Turkey-EU Customs Unıon ,2014, [article online], available from http:diplomacyandforeignaffairs.comimplications-of-free-trade-agreements-on-turkey-eu- customs-union , accessed at 19102014 145 European Commission Trade, Countries Regions-Turkey, 992014, [database online], available from http:ec.europa.eutradepolicycountries-and-regionscountriesturkey , accessed at 10102014 63 The data above show the intensity of Turkish trade relation with EU in term of goods. Turkeys exports to the EU are mostly machinery and transport equipment, followed by manufactured goods, while EU exports to Turkey are dominated by machinery and transport material, chemical products and manufactured goods. 146 Those numbers is a very high number for Turkey and the EU in terms of bilateral trade. If Turkey finally got the status of EU membership, Turkey could have reached the greater opportunity than this because Turkey will be included in the priority trade relations between the EU member states. The EU will certainly prioritize and maximize the potential of its member countries in terms of trade relations. See the figure below. Table: IV.A.2: Intra-EU exportsIntra-EU imports, 2012-2013 Source: Eurostat TET00039 146 Ibid 64 Table: IV.A.3: Extra-EU exportsExtra-EU imports, 2012-2013 Source: Eurostat TET00038 Table IV.A.4. Intra and extra EU-28 trade, 2013 imports plus exports, share of total trade Source: Eurostat DS-018995 147 147 European Commission-Eurostat, International Trade in Goods, August 2014, [database online], available from: http:ec.europa.eueurostatstatistics-explainedindex.phpInternational_trade_in_goods , 131214 65 The data above explained thefigure of trade within the member states of the EU and also between the membership of EU with non-member states in 2013. These figures show that the number of trade within EU members is greater than the number of trade with non-EU member states. Trade in goods between EU Member States intra-EU trade was valued at EUR 2839 billion in 2013 see table IV.A.2 while with extra-EU was valued EUR 1737.The number of export of intra-EU trade was two thirds higher than the level recorded for exports from the EU-28 to non-member countries extra- EU trade. The importance of the EU‟s internal market was underlined by the fact that intra-EU trade of goods was higher than extra-EU trade for each EU Member State, with the exceptions of Greece and the United Kingdom see table IV.A.4. in contrast, the exports from the EU-28 to non member states such as South Korea, Turkey and China grew more slowly up 5.8 , 3.1 and 3.0 . 148 Those figures shows that the EU member countries prioritize their trade relation more to the other EU member countries instead of non-member. It was proved by the higher number of trade of intra-EU compared to extra-EU. In fact, by only becoming a privileged partner of the EU, Turkey will be able to establish the economic cooperation with the EU, but the status of the European Union still more important for Turkey because the European Union will definitely prioritize the economic needs of the member countries rather than other countries. If Turkey just stays as a partner of the EU, the economic relation particularly in the areas of trade has not been fully guaranteed that Turkey will always be the EUs partner of trade. On the other hand, when Turkey became an official member of the 148 ibid 66 European Union, the trade networks with the EU member states will be widening and intense and it must be more profitable for Turkey bearing in mind that the number of EU member state is 28 countries. Then the nature of the world economy is very strong factor for Turkey to keep waiting for the official status of EU membership. 2 World Opinion The world opinion also has big influence for some countries to determine their action as their foreign policy. World opinion is the expressions and stand point of the other states about something. Today, with all the progress and stability of Turkey, this country has become a hot topic to be discussed among the countries in the world. By this condition, many EU member states that had previously rejected Turkeys accession because of economic considerations turned into being supporters. Until now, 23 of the 28 EU members that have previously been mentioned clearly declared their support for Turkeys accession to the EU. Those states are: United Kingdom 149 , Italy 150 , Netherlands 151 , Luxembourg 152 , Sweden 153 , Portugal 154 , Finland 155 , Spain 156 , Bulgaria 157 , The Czech Republic 158 , 149 Parliament UK, “UK support for Turkeys EU membership”, UK-Turkey relations and Turkeys regional role - Foreign Affairs Committee , 2012, [online database] available from: http:www.publications.parliament.ukpacm201012cmselectcmfaff1567156710.htm , accessed at 1482014 150 Emiliano ALE SSANDRI, “Italian-Turkish Relations: Potentials and Limits of a „Strategic Partnership‟”, Center for Strategic Research, 2011, [online article] available from http:sam.gov.tritalian-turkish-relations- potential-and-limits-of-a-strategic-partnership , accessed at 1382014 151 Hurriyet daily News ,“Netherlands will welcome Turkey as an EU member state, Dutch FM says” 152 Presidency of the Republic of Turke y, “First Head-of-State Level Visit from Luxembourg to Turkey”, 2014, [online database] available from http:www.tccb.gov.trnews39787801first-headofstate-level-visit-from- luxembourg-to-turkey.html , accessed at 1582014 153 Embassy of Sweden for Turkey, Sweden Supports Turkey‟s Eu Membership, 2013 [online database] available from http:www.swedenabroad.comPagesStandardPage.aspx?id=64189epslanguage=en-GB , accessed at 1552014 154 Republic of Turkey-Ministary of Foreign Affair,Relation between Turkey and Portugal, 2011, [online database] available from: http:www.mfa.gov.trrelations-between-turkey-and-portugal.en.mfa , accessed at 1582014 155 Anadolu Agency, Finland reaffirms support for Turkeys EU bid, 2013, [online article] available from: http:www.aa.com.trennews147501--finland-once-reaffirms-support-for-turkeys-eu-bid , accessed at 1682014 67 Estonia 159 , Latvia 160 , Lithuania 161 , Poland 162 , Malta 163 , Belgium 164 , Hungary 165 , Denmark 166 , Ireland 167 , Greece 168 , Slovakia 169 , Slovenia 170 , and Rumania 171 . While the countries that are still refusing are Germany 172 , France 173 ,Austria 174 , 156 Sundays Zaman, “Spain continues to support Turkey‟s European Union membership bid”, 2010, [online article] available from: http:www.todayszaman.comtz-webnews-202446-spain-continues-to-support-turkeys- european-union-membership-bid.html , accessed at 1582014 157 Novinite, “FM: Bulgaria Supports Turkey EU membership”, 2012 [online article] available from http:www.novinite.comarticles144757FM3A+Bulgaria+Supports+Turkey+EU+Membership , accessed at 1582014 158 Republic of Turkey-Ministary of Foreign Affair, Relation between Turkey and Czech Republic, 2011, [online database] available from: http:www.mfa.gov.trrelations-between-turkey-and-Czech Republic.en.mfa , accessed at 1582014 159 Republic of Estonia Government, Prime Minister Andrus Ansip: Estonia supports Turkey‟s accession to the European Union , 2013 [online database] available from https:valitsus.eeennewsprime-minister-andrus-ansip- estonia-supports-turkeys-accession-european-union , accessed at 1582014 160 Ministry Of Foreign Affairs Of The Republic Of Latvia, Foreign Minister Rinkēvičs: Latvia supports Turkey‟s European Union membership , 2011, [online database], available from http:www.mfa.gov.lvennewspress- releases2011november10-2 , accessed at 1582014 161 Turkish Press, Latvia and Lithuania support Turkeys EU membership process, 2013, [online article] available from: http:www.turkishpress.comnews383752 , accessed at 1782014 162 “Poland supports Turkeys EU bid: president”,English People‟s Daily online,2011, [online article] available from http:english.people.com.cn9000190777908537402536.html , accessed at 1782014 163 Bianca Caruana, “Malta supports Turkey‟s accession into EU”, Malta Today,2012, [online article] available from http:www.maltatoday.com.mtnewsnational17413malta-supports-turkey-s-accession-into-eu- 20120412.VAJ9wNe1ZaY , accessed at 1682014 164 Republic of Turkey-Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Relations between Turkey and Belgium, n.d on-line database; available from http:www.mfa.gov.trrelations-between-turkey-and-belgium.en.mfa; accessed at 1682014 165 Republic of Turkey-Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Relations between Turkey and Hungary, n.d on-line database; available from http:www.mfa.gov.trrelations-between-turkey-and-hungary.en.mfa; , accessed at 1582014 166 Republic of Turkey-Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Relations between Turkey and Denmark, n.d on-line database; available from http:www.mfa.gov.trrelations-between-turkey-and-denmark.en.mfa; accessed at 1682014 167 Republic of Turkey-Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Relations between Turkey and Ireland, n.d on-line database; available from http:www.mfa.gov.trrelations-between-turkey-and-ireland.en.mfa; accessed at 1682014 168 “Issues of Greek - Turkish Relations”, Hellenic Republic-Ministry of Foreign Affair,2014, [online database] available from http:www.mfa.grenissues-of-greek-turkish-relations , accessed at 3182014 169 Todays Zaman, “Turkey, Slovakia to further strengthen ties during Erdoğans visit”, 2013, [online article], available from http:www.todayszaman.comnews-306056-turkey-slovakia-to-further-strengthen-ties-during- erdogans-visit.html , accessed at 1582014 170 Presidency of the Republic of Turkey, President Gül Points to Strong Turkish-Slovenian Bilateral Relations, 2014, [online database] available from http:www.tccb.gov.trnews39788252president-gul-points-to-strong- turkishslovenian-bilateral-relations.html , accessed at 1582014 171 Todays Zaman, “Romanian leader urges EU to send positive signals to Turkey”, 2011, [online article] available from: http:www.todayszaman.comnews-265399-romanian-leader-urges-eu-to-send-positive-signals- to-turkey.html , accessed at 1582014 172 Katrin Böttger, Turkey Watch EU Member States‟ Perception on Turkish Accession to the EU-Germany, A publication of the Center for European Studies, Middle East Technical University, 2019, p: 36, [online journal] available from http:sinan.ces.metu.edu.trdosyaturkey_watch_en.pdf , accessed at 1382014 173 Nicolas Monceau, Turkey Watch EU Member States‟ Perception on Turkish Accession to the EU-France, p: 20 174 Cengiz Günay, Turkey Watch EU Member States‟ Perception on Turkish Accession to the EU-Austria, p:118 68 and Cyprus 175 . The reason of their support is Tu rkey‟s maturity in economic field and his strategic position to connect the interests of the Western and the Eastern community that will bring benefit for EU. The world opinion that says that Turkey is one of the countries whose economy is going to the top of the world 176 and also the support of the EU member countries for Turkeys accession have been influencing Turkey in making the policy of keep pursuing the membership status. Those supports and opinions about Turkish economic maturiry definitely make Turkey more confident and optimist to get the membership status of EU. This what actually construct the Turkeys foreign policy to keep waiting for European Union member states status although it has been 56 years for Turkey to wait for. 3 Structure of the System According to Holsti, the structure of power in international system influences the range of foreign policy strategies of some countries. 177 Today, the multipolar system has become a global reality which means that there are a number of influential actors in the international circumstance. The constructed system today is a globalization product which brings the potential countries in the world compete the US to be the other superpower countries, among those countries are China, Rusia, India, etc. 178 This situation certainly makes the US more vigorously defends its position by any way to keep the status as the only superpower country in the world. One of the ways is by forming the alliances and maintaining the 175 Costas Melakopides, Turkey Watch EU Member St ates‟ Perception on Turkish Accession to the EU-Greek Cyprot Perception, p: 133 176 Daniel Dombey, Six Market To Watch: Turkey, Foreign Affairs. Accessed at 12122014 177 K.J Holsti, International Politics : A Framework for Analysis, p: 271 178 Elizabeth Dickinson, How the multipolar world came to be, 19102014, [article online], available from: http:www.foreignpolicy.comarticles20091019new_order , accessed at 12102014 69 diplomatic relations by establishing the cooperation and giving the aid to strategic and influential countries in the world in order to gain their support for the US in any circumstance. One of those strategic states is Turkey. Turkey is potential and strategic country for its location between the Eastern and Western countries. Turkey has good proximity with the Western, Asian, and Middle East countries. This is why the big countries were interested to take Turkey as a partner and alliance; they see that they can reach their national interest through Turkey. As what Russia and China did that they ever invited Turkey to be a dialogue partner in the defense pact aiming to rival NATO which is known by Shanghai Cooperation Organization. This pact consists of China, Russia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan. 179 This case clearly shows the existence and credibility of Turkey as potential country in the world. In the other side, the United States of America, a superpower country, also keep its proximity with Turkey to utilize them to pursue the US interests in the Eastern countries particularly the Middle East considering that Turkey has an intensive closeness with those countries. One of the ways of US to maintain his good relation with Turkey is by becoming a non-EU supporting country for Turkish accession in EU. 180 Although the US is not an EU country, US support is very important for the accession of Turkey as it is a powerful country that has close relation with the European Union countries. Then the US support is 179 Zachary Keck , Turkey Renews Plea to Join Shanghai Cooperation Organization, the Diplomat, december 1. 2013. Available from: http:thediplomat.com201312turkey-renews-plea-to-join-shanghai-cooperation- organization , 180 Hurriyet Daily News, US Lawmakers Urge President Obama To Back Turkeys EU Bid, 2008, available from: http:www.hurriyet.com.trenglishworld11344770.asp , 10122014 70 expected to influence the EU member countries and Parliament to accelerate Turkeys accession. 181 Since the late 1980s and early, the US has been a great supporter of closer EU-Turkey ties. More specifically, throughout the Clinton, Bush, and now Obama administration, the US has frequently voiced its preference for Turkey‟s EU accession. 182 In support of Turkey‟s European Integration, the US has set a variety of arguments and has attempted to influence EU decision at critical moments during Turkey‟s accession to Europe. American influence on Turkey‟s relationship with Europe has been direct and indirect. The US has played the key role in shaping Turkey‟s self-representation in Europe. The US has also influenced Turkey‟s domestic political evolution, turkey‟s foreign and defense policies, and also in Turkish national security question such as Cyprus, the Kurdish, and the Armenian matters. All these issues have had considerable impact on Turkey‟s relation with the EU. The role of US is a key element in the dynamic between Turkey and the EU. 183 The current world system has brought an impact on Turkeys foreign policy toward the European Union, especially regarding the accession. The multipolar system which makes some countries such as the US, Russia, and China compete for being the super power of the world makes Turkey become one of the most important country for them due to its strategic territory. Those countries require Turkey to gain their national interests. The Russia sees Turkey as not only a key 181 Nathalie Tocci, Turkey‟s European Future: behind the scenes of America‟s Influence on EU-Turkey Relation, New York University Press, 20111 p: 20 182 Sabri Sayari, The United States and Turkeys Membership In The European Union, The Turkish Year Book, vol: xxxiv, p: 168, accessed from: http:dergiler.ankara.edu.trdergiler446748589.pdf , 161214 183 Nathalie Tocci, Turkey‟s European Future: behind the scenes of America‟s Influence on EU-Turkey Relation, p: 32-35 71 market and service provider, but also as an attractive counterterrorism partner in the strategically important Caucasus region as well as the Middle East. 184 For China, Turkey is a critical partner not only in economic development but also in national security concerning the critical issue of Xinjiang. China needs intensive support and close cooperation from Turkey to deal with the “East Turkestan” problem. 185 While US needs Turkey for its interest in the Middle East in which the example is about the Syrian case and countering terrorism. 186 Turkey is very important for world peace as it was also stated by the Nobel Peace Prize ceremony, Thorbjørn Jagland, who is also the secretary-general of the Council of Europe. 187 By this condition, Turkey feels that it self is needed by the world and it could be a great bargaining power for the accession to EU. Among those super power countries, only the US that has the longest and closest proximity with EU. The US needs Turkey as well as Turkey needs US. Turkey needs US to support Turkey in the accession and it has been happening. The US is the non-EU country that has big influence in Turkeys accession. Turkey is very confident that the US would greatly help Turkey to get the status of EU membership. Thus Turkey believes sooner or later the EU will accept 184 Paul Saunders, Russia Pulse, AlMonitor-The Pulse of The Middle East,[online article], available from: http:www2.al-monitor.compulseoriginals201411russia-turkey-political-ties.html , 131214 185 The East Turkestan Islamic Movement ETIM is a Muslim separatist group founded by militant Uighurs, members of the Turkic-speaking ethnic majority in northwest Chinas Xinjiang province. The U.S. treasury department listed ETIM as terrorist organization in 2002 during a period of increased U.S.-Chinese cooperation on antiterrorism in the wake of the September 11, 2001, attacks. The group and its ties to Muslim fundamentalism have compounded Chinese concerns about the rising threat of terrorism within the country as its restive western regions faced a spate of terrorist attacks in 2014. Todays Zaman, Turkey-China Ready To Strengthen already Close Ties, [online article], available from: http:www.todayszaman.comnational_turkey-china-ready-to-strengthen-already-close-ties_270495.html , 121214 186 Anne Gearan, Turkey will play important role in combating Islamic State, U.S. officials say, Washington Post, September 2012, [online article], available from: http:www.washingtonpost.comworldmiddle_eastus- expands-aid-funding-for-refugee-crisis-in-syria2014091297282b20-3a6b-11e4-8601- 97ba88884ffd_story.html , 121214 187 Todays Zaman, Nobel Committee to EU: Turkey very important for world peace, 101212, available from: http:www.todayszaman.comdiplomacy_nobel-committee-to-eu-turkey-very-important-for-world- peace_300756.html , 121214 72 Turkey as a member because of the importance of Turkey for the world and because of the pressure from the US. Therefore the confidence as an important country in the world system and the support from the US have become the factors of Turkeys persistence for the accession.

2. Domestic Factors