– The Communication and Influence of Confidence What is confidence? – Pilot Study: Development of Confidence Cues Introduction – The Influence of Confidence and Task Type Abstract

CONTENTS Acknowledgements Abstract Contents Table of Contents: Figures Table of Contents: Tables Table of Contents: Appendices Conferences and Publications CHAPTER 1 – The Communication and Influence of Confidence What is confidence? 1 The function of communicating confidence 3 The communication of confidence 5 Numerical and verbal expressions of confidence 6 Confidence-uncertainty continuum 7 Epistemic modality 8 Powerful and powerless speech styles 8 Gender differences 9 Directionality of expressions 10 Variants of uncertainty 11 Non-answers 12 Verbal uncertainty research 12 The influence of confidence in judgement and decision-making 13 Task type 15 Sources of information 16 Group size and consensus 17 Mode of expression 18 Communication channel 19 Levels of confidence 20 Argument quality 23 Accuracy 24 Overconfidence 24 Feedback 26 Individual differences 27 Gender differences in influence 28 Interpersonal perceptions of confidence 29 Trust and expertise 30 Gender differences 31 Too much confidence? 31 Influence of confidence on decision quality 32 The social influence of confidence – theoretical perspectives 33 Influence of confidence within groups 33 Decision-making environment 34 Interpersonal perceptions of confidence 35 Models of persuasion 36 Making Choices 37 Confidence heuristic 38 Contextual framework 41 Rationale 42 Aims of thesis 44

CHAPTER 2 – Pilot Study: Development of Confidence Cues Introduction

47 Method 49 Participants 49 Materials 49 Procedure 49 Results and Discussion 50

CHAPTER 3 – The Influence of Confidence and Task Type Abstract

54 Introduction 55 Rationale for Experiment 59 Method 60 Participants 60 Design 60 Materials 61 Intellective task: General Knowledge 61 Judgmental task: Opinions 62 External Judgement task 62 Procedure 63 Results 64 Influence of Confidence Cues on Chosen Answers 64 Intellective task 66 Judgmental task 66 External Judgement task 67 Influence of Confidence Cues on Choice Confidence 68 Influence of Confidence Cues on Perceptions of Speakers 70 Chosen Team-Mate 70 Competency 71 Likeability 71 Speaker Confidence 71 Speaker Gender 72 Summary of Results 72 Discussion 73 Conclusions 77

CHAPTER 4 – Individual Differences in the Influence of Confidence Abstract