Surya Citra Media Tbk (SCMA)

  (SCMA) Surya Citra Media Tbk

  3Q18: Menyerupai Kinerja High Season Company Report | Oct 24, 2018 Didongkrak oleh Momentum Asian Games

  Selain berdampak positif pada industri pariwisata Indonesia, Asian Games 2018 juga tentunya turut mendatangkan manfaat ekonomi. Salah satu emiten, yang

Buy

  terdongkrak kinerjanya melalui ajang tersebut ialah SCMA, selaku official

Dec 2019 TP (IDR) 2,025

  broadcaster. Walhasil, kinerja pendapatan 3Q18 tercatat melonjak menjadi Consensus Price (IDR) 2,294

  Rp1,32 triliun (+30,4% y-y), hampir menyerupai kinerja 2Q18 yang TP to Consensus Price -11.7% merupakan high season. Terlebih, laba bersih 3Q18 juga ikut melonjak vs. Last Price +20.2%

  hingga Rp345 miliar (+35,3% y-y), meski gross margin 3Q18 tetap berada di level 52,0%, seperti 3Q17.

  Shares data Last Price (IDR) 1,685

  Di samping itu, kinerja 3Q18 juga turut terdongkrak oleh ajang Asean Football

  Price date as of Oct 23, 2018

  Federation serta konten-konten baru, seperti FTV Azab yang tayang di stasiun

  52 wk range (Hi/Lo) 2,880 / 1,685

  IVM. Di sisi lain, langkanya momentum istimewa, seperti Asian Games 2018,

  Free float (%)

  39.1

  yang mengatrol pertumbuhan kinerja SCMA pada FY18 sulit untuk diulangi pada

  Outstanding sh.(mn) 14,622 tahun-tahun berikutnya. Market Cap (IDR bn) 24,637 Market Cap (USD mn) 1,621

  Konsisten Mendorong Pengembangan Konten Avg. Trd Vol - 3M (mn)

  15.0 Usaha SCMA yang tetap gencar untuk menghadirkan konten-konten baru dan Avg. Trd Val - 3M (bn)

  28.5

  menarik, seperti FTV Azab juga tercermin pada kesamaan angka gross margin

  Foreign Ownership 18.6% secara tahunan.

  Beban materi program 3Q18 tercatat naik menjadi Rp610,4 miliar (+32,7% y-y), yang lebih dititikberatkan pada IVM daripada SCTV. Trade, Services & Investment

  Kami mengamati bahwa strategi

  penguatan konten ini penting bagi perusahaan Media, Television media, di tengah ancaman online advertising dan tren pelambatan

  Bloomberg SCMA IJ pertumbuhan pendapatan iklan yang terjadi pada beberapa tahun terakhir. Reuters SCMA.JK

  Target Harga Rp2.025

  Kami menggunakan estimasi forward P/E sebesar 19,5x (1,3SD di bawah rata-

  Share Price Performance

  rata dua tahun terakhir). Target harga ini mengimplikasikan P/E 2018E sebesar 19,9x. Saat ini, SCMA diperdagangkan pada P/E 2018E sebesar 16,6x.

  Surya Citra Media Tbk | Summary (IDR bn) 2017 2018E 2019F 2020F

  Revenue 4,454 4,943 4,899 5,105

  Revenue growth 11.0% 4.2%

• -1.6% -0.9%

  EBITDA 1,969 2,079 2,115 2,187 Net Profit 1,331 1,487 1,520 1,569 EPS (IDR) 91 102 104 107

  EPS growth 11.7% 2.3% 3.2%

• -11.4%

  YTD

  1M

  3M

  12M

  BVPS (IDR) 301 326 354 378

  Abs. Ret. -32.1% -6.4% -17.8% -22.7%

  EBITDA margin 44.2% 42.1% 43.2% 42.8%

  Rel. Ret. -23.3% -5.0% -15.5% -20.1%

  NPM 29.9% 30.1% 31.0% 30.7% ROE 32.8% 32.4% 30.6% 29.3% ROA 35.5% 55.9% 58.4% 62.1% ROIC 29.3% 30.3% 28.5% 27.5% P/E 27.2x 16.6x 16.2x 15.7x P/BV 8.2x 5.2x 4.8x 4.5x

Michael Tjahjadi

  EV/EBITDA 18.3x 11.6x 11.2x 10.7x

• 62 21 797 6202, ext:114

  DPS (IDR) 77 76 83 82

  michael@nhsec.co.id Dividend yield 3.1% 4.5% 4.9% 4.8%

  Source: Company Data, Bloomberg, NHKS Research Please consider the rating criteria & important disclaimer NH Korindo Sekuritas Indonesia

  Surya Citra Media www.nhsec.co.id

  Source: Company, NHKS Research SCMA Quarterly Net Profit | 3Q16 - 3Q18

  Source: Company, NHKS Research SCMA Quarterly Net Revenues | 3Q16 - 3Q18

  All-Time Audience Share by Group | Jan ‘17 - Sep ‘18 Source: Company, NHKS Research

  Margin Ratios | 3Q17 - 3Q18 Source: Company, NHKS Research

  Performance Highlights Revenue from Advertising (IDR bn) | 3Q16 - 3Q18

  Source: Company, NHKS Research Prime Time Audience Share by Group | Jan ‘17 - Sep ‘18

  Source: Company, NHKS Research

  Surya Citra Media www.nhsec.co.id

  3Q18 review (IDR bn)

  3Q18

  3Q17

  4Q17

  1Q18

  2Q18

  4Q18E Actual Estimate y-y q-q surprise

  Revenue 1,010 1,029 1,157 1,322 1,317 1,297 30.4% -0.4% 1.6% 1,147 Gross Profit 525 545 673 833 685 696 30.5% -17.8% -1.5% 624

  Gross Margin 52.0% 52.9% 58.2% 63.0% 52.0% 53.7% 0.0% -11.0% 54.4%

• -1.6%

  EBIT 352 278 470 606 479 464 36.1% -21.0% 3.2% 770

  EBIT Margin 34.9% 27.0% 40.7% 45.8% 36.4% 35.8% 1.5% -9.5% 0.6% 67.1%

  EBITDA 388 370 508 645 519 494 33.9% -19.5% 5.1% 376

  EBITDA Margin 38.4% 36.0% 43.9% 48.8% 39.4% 38.1% 1.0% -9.4% 1.3% 32.8%

Net Profit 255 238 359 485 345 365 35.3% -29.0% -5.7% 298

  Net Margin 25.2% 23.1% 31.1% 36.7% 26.2% 28.2% 0.9% -10.5% -2.0% 26.0% Source: Bloomberg, NHKS research Earnings revision (IDR bn) 2018E 2019F 2020F

  4,943 4,899 5,105

• Revised Revenue
>Previous 4,921 5,290 5> -Change 0.4% -7.4% -3.8%

  2,815 2,832 2,945

• Revised Gross Profit
• Previous 2,825 3,068 3,188
• Change -0.3% -7.7% -7.6%
• Revised 57.0% 57.8% 57.7% Gross Margin

  57.4% 58.0% 60.1%

• Previous EBIT -Revised 1,931 1,981 2> -Previous 1,916 2,089 2
• Change 0.8% -5.2% -7.2%

  39.1% 40.4% 40.1%

  EBIT Margin -Revised

• Previous 38.9% 39.5% 41.5% EBITDA -Revised 2,079 2,115 2> -Previous 2,053 2,220 2
• Change 1.3% -4.8% -6.7%

  42.1% 43.2% 42.8%

  EBITDA Margin -Revised

• Previous 41.7% 42.0% 44.2%
• Revised

  Net Profit 1,487 1,520 1,569

• -Previous 1,513 1,609 1,692
• -Change -1.8% -5.5% -7.3%
• Revised 30.1% 31.0% 30.7% Net Margin

  30.8% 30.4% 31.9%

• Previous

  Source: NHKS research

• 29.60%

  Thailand

  Hubei Broadcasting 611 1,454 422 45 -4.72% 10.7% 5.43% 14.2x 0.7x

  China

  TV18 Broadcast Ltd 857 1,040 229 1 -54.81% 0.6% 0.26% 733.0x 1.9x

  India

  21 2 -42.53% 8.9% 9.94% 61.5x 6.2x

  35

  ABS-CBN Corp 348 1,503 784 53 -11.02% 6.8% 10.65% 6.6x 0.6x GMA Network Inc 321 296 290 43 -20.89% 14.9% 22.57% 11.3x 2.6x Manila Broadcasting Co 113

  Philippines

  BEC World PCL 402 440 308 (14) N/A -4.5% -6.84% N/A 2.1x MCOT PCL 195 214 77 (79) -207.67% -102.1% -51.28% N/A 1.7x

  9.4% 82.61% 12.5x 11.2x

  Surya Citra Media www.nhsec.co.id Asia Pacific Media Company

  Astro Malaysia Holdings 1,566 1,756 1,360 128

  Malaysia

  VIVA 138 569 204 2 -90.11% 1.2% 1.6% 63.1x 1.0x

  SCMA 1,621 396 347 103 -0.85% 29.6% 32.3% 17.3x 5.4x MNCN 733 1,108 523 97 15.17% 18.5% 14.6% 7.8x 1.1x

  Source: Bloomberg Company Market Cap (USD mn) Asset (USD mn) Revenue LTM (USD mn) Net Profit LTM (USD mn) Net Profit Growth LTM Net Margin ROE LTM P/E LTM P/BV Indonesia

  

online. Selain itu, perusahaan media di Indonesia pun mampu mencatatkan net margin yang lebih tinggi dengan biaya produksi

dan beban usaha relatif lebih rendah dibandingkan negara-negara berkembang di Asia Pasifik lainnya.

  Di antara perusahaan media lainnya di Asia Pasifik, SCMA, memiliki jumlah aset lebih rendah dibandingkan dengan kompetitornya, mampu mencatatkan net margin tertinggi. Selain itu, Indonesia merupakan lahan subur bagi tumbuh kembang bisnis media, khususnya media televisi. Jumlah penduduk yang besar serta tingkat penetrasi TV free-to-air yang tinggi membuat para pegiat industri fast moving consumer goods, rokok, dan e-commerce memanfaatkan media televisi sebagai sarana utama program pemasaran. Hal ini membuat perusahaan media Indonesia lebih tahan terhadap ancaman persaingan dengan media

  Daya Saing SCMA di Asia Pasifik

  SCMA, yang memiliki dua stasiun TV terkemuka, yaitu SCTV dan Indosiar Visual Mandiri (IVM), kini merupakan salah satu pemimpin pasar industri free-to-air TV di Indonesia. Kontributor terbesar bagi audience share SCTV adalah program sinetron, sedangkan audience share Indosiar sebagian besar dikontribusikan oleh program talent show. Selain segmen bisnis free-to-air TV, SCMA juga memiliki segmen pendukung seperti production house dan manajemen artis.

  Sekilas tentang SCMA

  Surya Citra Media www.nhsec.co.id

  Multiple Valuation Forward P/E band | Last 2 years Dynamic Forward P/E band | Last 2 years Source: NHKS research Source: NHKS research Rating and Target Price Update Target Price Revision Date Rating Target Price Last Price Consensus vs Last Price vs Consensus

  04/12/2018 Buy 3,200 (Dec 2018) 2,710 2,897 +18.1% +10.5% 06/25/2018 Buy 2,700 (Dec 2018) 2,220 2,885 +21.6% -6.4% 08/03/2018 Buy 2,500 (Dec 2018) 2,090 2,614 +19.6% -4.4% 10/23/2018 Buy 2,025 (Dec 2019) 1,685 2,294 +20.2% -11.7%

  Source: NHKS research, Bloomberg Analyst Coverage Rating Closing and Target Price Source: Bloomberg

  Source: NHKS research

NH Korindo Sekuritas Indonesia (NHKS) stock ratings

  1. Period: End of year target price

  2. Rating system based on a stock’s absolute return from the date of publication

   Buy : Greater than +15%

   Hold : -15% to +15%  Sell : Less than -15%

  Surya Citra Media www.nhsec.co.id

  Summary of Financials

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