India China Track II 3rd Bilateral
Third AWW-NMF Bilateral Dialogue: 15 May – 19 May 16: Report
Author: Dinesh Yadav*
Date: 01 June 2016
The third bilateral dialogue between the National Maritime Foundation
(NMF) and the Academy of World Watch (AWW) was held in Beijing and
Shanghai, China from 15 May to 19 May 2016. During the Dialogue,
discussions were held between the participating delegates on a number
of broad themes such as ‘Strategic Environment in the Indo-Pacific’,
‘Politico-diplomatic Relations between China and India’, ‘Economic
Interests and Initiatives’ and ‘Naval Presence and Activities’.
Both sides agreed that in recent years the Indo-Pacific has become an
arena for maritime interface between China, India and other major
powers. China is increasingly looking westward and has launched the
One Belt One Road (OBOR) initiative; on the other hand, India’s ‘Act
East’ policy, through initiatives such as the Cotton Route, Project
Mausam among others, is gaining salience. Also, the United States is
strengthening its presence in the Indo Pacific region through its ‘Pivot to
Asia’ strategy. This has led to frequent exchange/interaction between the
maritime forces of the three countries in the Indo-Pacific region.
It emerged that the Indo Pacific is too large a geographical space for
pre-eminence of any one particular power and all players can coexist. If
China, US and India manage their relations amiably and act responsibly,
they can contribute to stability in the Indo Pacific region.
Indian and Chinese scholars agreed that China-India relations are at
the core of Indo-Pacific politics. If in the past, China-Japan relations were
seen as the defining feature of Asian politics, India-China relations have
emerged as the most significant in Asia in the current century. There was
consensus that the long pending border issue can be resolved through
patience and prudence, whilst the emergent and urgent issues could be
handled through increased engagements and constructive dialogues.
The Chinese side highlighted that China considers India as an
important partner for cooperation. However, there exists a need to
enhance military exchanges and strengthen economic linkages. It was
also highlighted that the media on either side should guard against
‘misperceptions
and
misinterpretation’
of
issues
leading
to
‘misjudgement’ by the political leadership.
On
the
issue
of
China-US
relations,
while
there
are
many
convergences, it was stated that the US wants to contain China in the
Pacific and is trying to encourage its allies and partners to team up
against China. It was emphasised that China is not like the Soviet Union
of the Cold War and it would not be possible for the US or any other
country to contain China. Accordingly, China is “wary” about the US but
not necessarily “alarmed”. Also, a Chinese scholar noted, it is not
possible for China to contain India.
The Chinese scholars argued that despite US getting closer to India,
making concessions to India on nuclear issuers, preferring India to
Pakistan on different strategic issues, there also exists a limit to India-US
cooperation. They argued that once India achieves a level of growth
similar to that of China, the US attitude towards India may also change
and it would then attempt to contain India. However, if India and China
cooperate, they will be in a better position to persuade the United States
to modify its policies towards Asia favourable to both India and China.
The Indian scholars clarified that contrary to Chinese scholars’
assertion, there exists no link between US’s ‘Pivot to Asia’ and India’s
‘Act East’ policy. India’s transition from ‘Look East’ to ‘Act East’ is rooted
in its legitimate interest of broadening the scope of its interactions with
the East Asian economies. India has always pursued the policy of
maintaining ‘strategic autonomy’ and will continue to strive for peaceful
and stable relationship with all the countries in the region. On the other
hand, China’s policy of looking at India through the ‘South Asia prism’
and ‘hyphenating’ with Pakistan are road blocks for the growth of ChinaIndia cooperation.
It was agreed that despite cooperation between China and India,
competition will naturally feature in the China-India relationship in years
to come. However, what is important is how both the countries manage
their competition and a three step recommendation was suggested from
the Chinese side: (a) Clarify the intentions/ interests/concerns of each side. China
should acknowledge that India has legitimate interest to develop ties
with Southeast Asia, US and Japan for its own national interest.
Similarly, India should keep an open mind about China’s relations with
Pakistan and its interests in the Indian Ocean Region.
(b) Either side needs to understand the other’s sensitivities and
limitations.
(c)
Regular dialogues are important to understand each other’s
strategic perceptions. It is also important for both sides to go beyond
talks and focus more on practical cooperation.
On the issue of China-India cooperation in the Indo-Pacific region
through the OBOR initiative, the Chinese scholar highlighted that
contrary to the western media assertion that OBOR is China’s Marshall
Plan, it is an economic ‘initiative’ by China to reach out to other countries
rather than a ‘strategy’. One of the major drivers fro OBOR was the
surplus manufacturing capacity and growth in economic and industrial
structure in China which encourages the Chinese to seek markets
elsewhere. Since the initiative is ‘promoted through’ and ‘dependent’ on
mutual cooperation with countries, it is a
win-win initiative as
cooperation is premised on mutual benefits transcending a zero-sum
outcome. However, as per Chinese assessment, India’s attitude towards
the initiative is negative as OBOR is seen by many in India as an
enhanced or enlarged version of the ‘String of Pearls’. Also, it was
observed that China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) does not reflect
a change in China’s official position on the issue of Jammu & Kashmir.
The
opportunities
that
OBOR
offers
to
India-China
bilateral
cooperation were also highlighted. At the regional level, OBOR provides
a window of opportunity to China- India cooperation in the shared
neighbourhood
in
South
Asia.
OBOR’s
potential
to
support
and
strengthen the domestic economic initiatives such as ‘Make in India’ was
also highlighted.
An Indian scholar, whilst addressing the ‘Economic Interests and
Initiatives’ explored new avenues of India- China cooperation, challenges
and also suggested the way forward. It was highlighted that though India
and China share a complex relationship riddled with apprehensions about
each other’s policy initiatives, India’s approach towards China was
incremental and positive. The same was also reflected in the Indian
Government’s policies which are seen to have laid a ‘red carpet’ for
Chinese investments. With the renewed thrust for reengaging in the
maritime domain through initiatives such as SAGAR and Sagarmala,
India is taking all the right steps to invite Chinese investments and PM
Modi has stated that it is the right time to ‘come to India’.
The possible challenges to such partnership and cooperation were also
identified - CEPC, the Sri Lankan debt row etc. It was highlighted that
the two countries differed on the ways to cooperate. India believes
resolution of outstanding disputes and issues has to precede cooperation;
whereas China holds the position that cooperation is a first step to
ensure settlement of all other disputes, thus creating a dilemma. It was
also observed that much of the apprehensions surrounding Chinese
economic activities in the IOR emerge due to lack of clarity on such
initiatives and its security implications. It was held that transparency,
along with a change in perception would be useful.
Transparency in key security issues and economic initiatives was
reiterated particularly in the context of China’s naval activities in the IOR
and the South China Sea. The possibilities of exploring India-China
cooperation for evolving a South Asian maritime security mechanism and
the potential of India and China to be architects in shaping peace and
stability in the region was also highlighted.
To safeguard Chinese interests in the IOR and to address the common
challenges, the Chinese scholars suggested that the two countries
engage
in
transparency,
military
cooperation
information
through
sharing,
and
joint
patrol,
logistics
increased
support.
Also,
cooperation in maritime operations such as joint rescue evacuation,
peace keeping, HADR, refugee management, non-combatant operations
etc. was also suggested.
The Indian side, whilst highlighting India’s perspectives on China’s
maritime activities in the IOR, brought out that China was not a
traditional Indian Ocean power and it is only natural for a nation
possessing the economic and military capabilities like China to expand its
politico-strategic and economic interests beyond its shores. The speaker
pointed out that while China’s interests, driven ostensibly by the
imperative to protect trade and energy lines in the region are continually
growing, same is also true for India whilst it engages with East Asian and
South Asian countries through its ‘Act East’ Policy. The widespread
unease and apprehensions in India about the dual use capabilities of the
Chinese maritime infrastructure in the region were also highlighted
during the course of discussions.
Since the presence of the Chinese Navy in Indian Ocean and that of
Indian Navy in Western Pacific was a foregone conclusion, collaboration
between the maritime forces of India and China was recommended. To
build confidence between the two maritime forces, common consultative
mechanisms, confidence building measures, establishment of hotlines,
better mutual understanding to follow SOP’s, prior notification of
maritime activities, regular cooperative engagements at bilateral level
and increased dialogue and exchange were suggested.
The Chinese side gave an account of the tensions in South China Sea
(SCS) and its impact on regional security. The Philippines arbitration
case and claims by the US that China is militarizing the man-made
islands are driving China into a defensive stand on the issue.
The Chinese scholars also expressed concerns regarding emerging
trends in the Indo-Pacific regional security structure such as the
proposed quadrilateral security cooperation framework between India,
US, Japan and Australia, the trilateral security framework between the
US, Japan and India.
The Indian scholars raised issues related to China’s conduct in the
Indian Ocean. It was observed that even though China’s core interests lie
eastward of Straits of Malacca, it is establishing military presence
westwards to create a strategic distraction or strategic depth in the
background of increasing US presence in the Western Pacific. The Indian
side raised concerns about China’s growing capability to stretch its
strategic frontiers to the IOR through its rapidly expanding distant power
projection capabilities. The Indian speaker highlighted that whilst the
Maritime Silk Route (MSR) is advocated as commercial and inclusive
initiative, it appears to be unilateral in its approach and that there exist
ambiguities related to its strategic content.
The major focus of the discussions during the Dialogue was to find
ways and means to enhance cooperation and partnership between India
and China in the Indo-Pacific region. There was a consensus on the need
to uphold security and stability through increased partnership and
cooperative mechanisms and transparency.
This Dialogue was refreshingly different from the earlier ones as both
sides were willing to accept that there were certain issues for which an
immediate solution might not be in sight; yet there is a resolve to
continue engaging constructively. Unlike in the past, wherein, each side
had fixed positions on various issues, during this Dialogue, each side
appeared comfortable in moving away from those positions and discuss a
wide array of issues whilst adopting a flexible approach with a spirit of
accommodation.
Both sides agreed that there was a need for managing interpretations
to improve bilateral relations. Whilst every effort must be made for a winwin outcome in bilateral engagements, even if win-win is unequal, till
such time any side does not lose, those engagements should be
acceptable. Each side agreed that cooperation and competition will
coexist between India and China. Also, each side must endeavour to
engage
in
a
manner
such
that
competition
does
not
dominate
cooperation.
* Commander Dinesh Yadav is a Research Fellow at the National
Maritime Foundation (NMF), New Delhi. The views expressed are his
own and do not reflect the official policy or position of the NMF, the
Indian Navy or the Government of India. He can be reached at
cdrdineshyadav@yahoo.in
Author: Dinesh Yadav*
Date: 01 June 2016
The third bilateral dialogue between the National Maritime Foundation
(NMF) and the Academy of World Watch (AWW) was held in Beijing and
Shanghai, China from 15 May to 19 May 2016. During the Dialogue,
discussions were held between the participating delegates on a number
of broad themes such as ‘Strategic Environment in the Indo-Pacific’,
‘Politico-diplomatic Relations between China and India’, ‘Economic
Interests and Initiatives’ and ‘Naval Presence and Activities’.
Both sides agreed that in recent years the Indo-Pacific has become an
arena for maritime interface between China, India and other major
powers. China is increasingly looking westward and has launched the
One Belt One Road (OBOR) initiative; on the other hand, India’s ‘Act
East’ policy, through initiatives such as the Cotton Route, Project
Mausam among others, is gaining salience. Also, the United States is
strengthening its presence in the Indo Pacific region through its ‘Pivot to
Asia’ strategy. This has led to frequent exchange/interaction between the
maritime forces of the three countries in the Indo-Pacific region.
It emerged that the Indo Pacific is too large a geographical space for
pre-eminence of any one particular power and all players can coexist. If
China, US and India manage their relations amiably and act responsibly,
they can contribute to stability in the Indo Pacific region.
Indian and Chinese scholars agreed that China-India relations are at
the core of Indo-Pacific politics. If in the past, China-Japan relations were
seen as the defining feature of Asian politics, India-China relations have
emerged as the most significant in Asia in the current century. There was
consensus that the long pending border issue can be resolved through
patience and prudence, whilst the emergent and urgent issues could be
handled through increased engagements and constructive dialogues.
The Chinese side highlighted that China considers India as an
important partner for cooperation. However, there exists a need to
enhance military exchanges and strengthen economic linkages. It was
also highlighted that the media on either side should guard against
‘misperceptions
and
misinterpretation’
of
issues
leading
to
‘misjudgement’ by the political leadership.
On
the
issue
of
China-US
relations,
while
there
are
many
convergences, it was stated that the US wants to contain China in the
Pacific and is trying to encourage its allies and partners to team up
against China. It was emphasised that China is not like the Soviet Union
of the Cold War and it would not be possible for the US or any other
country to contain China. Accordingly, China is “wary” about the US but
not necessarily “alarmed”. Also, a Chinese scholar noted, it is not
possible for China to contain India.
The Chinese scholars argued that despite US getting closer to India,
making concessions to India on nuclear issuers, preferring India to
Pakistan on different strategic issues, there also exists a limit to India-US
cooperation. They argued that once India achieves a level of growth
similar to that of China, the US attitude towards India may also change
and it would then attempt to contain India. However, if India and China
cooperate, they will be in a better position to persuade the United States
to modify its policies towards Asia favourable to both India and China.
The Indian scholars clarified that contrary to Chinese scholars’
assertion, there exists no link between US’s ‘Pivot to Asia’ and India’s
‘Act East’ policy. India’s transition from ‘Look East’ to ‘Act East’ is rooted
in its legitimate interest of broadening the scope of its interactions with
the East Asian economies. India has always pursued the policy of
maintaining ‘strategic autonomy’ and will continue to strive for peaceful
and stable relationship with all the countries in the region. On the other
hand, China’s policy of looking at India through the ‘South Asia prism’
and ‘hyphenating’ with Pakistan are road blocks for the growth of ChinaIndia cooperation.
It was agreed that despite cooperation between China and India,
competition will naturally feature in the China-India relationship in years
to come. However, what is important is how both the countries manage
their competition and a three step recommendation was suggested from
the Chinese side: (a) Clarify the intentions/ interests/concerns of each side. China
should acknowledge that India has legitimate interest to develop ties
with Southeast Asia, US and Japan for its own national interest.
Similarly, India should keep an open mind about China’s relations with
Pakistan and its interests in the Indian Ocean Region.
(b) Either side needs to understand the other’s sensitivities and
limitations.
(c)
Regular dialogues are important to understand each other’s
strategic perceptions. It is also important for both sides to go beyond
talks and focus more on practical cooperation.
On the issue of China-India cooperation in the Indo-Pacific region
through the OBOR initiative, the Chinese scholar highlighted that
contrary to the western media assertion that OBOR is China’s Marshall
Plan, it is an economic ‘initiative’ by China to reach out to other countries
rather than a ‘strategy’. One of the major drivers fro OBOR was the
surplus manufacturing capacity and growth in economic and industrial
structure in China which encourages the Chinese to seek markets
elsewhere. Since the initiative is ‘promoted through’ and ‘dependent’ on
mutual cooperation with countries, it is a
win-win initiative as
cooperation is premised on mutual benefits transcending a zero-sum
outcome. However, as per Chinese assessment, India’s attitude towards
the initiative is negative as OBOR is seen by many in India as an
enhanced or enlarged version of the ‘String of Pearls’. Also, it was
observed that China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) does not reflect
a change in China’s official position on the issue of Jammu & Kashmir.
The
opportunities
that
OBOR
offers
to
India-China
bilateral
cooperation were also highlighted. At the regional level, OBOR provides
a window of opportunity to China- India cooperation in the shared
neighbourhood
in
South
Asia.
OBOR’s
potential
to
support
and
strengthen the domestic economic initiatives such as ‘Make in India’ was
also highlighted.
An Indian scholar, whilst addressing the ‘Economic Interests and
Initiatives’ explored new avenues of India- China cooperation, challenges
and also suggested the way forward. It was highlighted that though India
and China share a complex relationship riddled with apprehensions about
each other’s policy initiatives, India’s approach towards China was
incremental and positive. The same was also reflected in the Indian
Government’s policies which are seen to have laid a ‘red carpet’ for
Chinese investments. With the renewed thrust for reengaging in the
maritime domain through initiatives such as SAGAR and Sagarmala,
India is taking all the right steps to invite Chinese investments and PM
Modi has stated that it is the right time to ‘come to India’.
The possible challenges to such partnership and cooperation were also
identified - CEPC, the Sri Lankan debt row etc. It was highlighted that
the two countries differed on the ways to cooperate. India believes
resolution of outstanding disputes and issues has to precede cooperation;
whereas China holds the position that cooperation is a first step to
ensure settlement of all other disputes, thus creating a dilemma. It was
also observed that much of the apprehensions surrounding Chinese
economic activities in the IOR emerge due to lack of clarity on such
initiatives and its security implications. It was held that transparency,
along with a change in perception would be useful.
Transparency in key security issues and economic initiatives was
reiterated particularly in the context of China’s naval activities in the IOR
and the South China Sea. The possibilities of exploring India-China
cooperation for evolving a South Asian maritime security mechanism and
the potential of India and China to be architects in shaping peace and
stability in the region was also highlighted.
To safeguard Chinese interests in the IOR and to address the common
challenges, the Chinese scholars suggested that the two countries
engage
in
transparency,
military
cooperation
information
through
sharing,
and
joint
patrol,
logistics
increased
support.
Also,
cooperation in maritime operations such as joint rescue evacuation,
peace keeping, HADR, refugee management, non-combatant operations
etc. was also suggested.
The Indian side, whilst highlighting India’s perspectives on China’s
maritime activities in the IOR, brought out that China was not a
traditional Indian Ocean power and it is only natural for a nation
possessing the economic and military capabilities like China to expand its
politico-strategic and economic interests beyond its shores. The speaker
pointed out that while China’s interests, driven ostensibly by the
imperative to protect trade and energy lines in the region are continually
growing, same is also true for India whilst it engages with East Asian and
South Asian countries through its ‘Act East’ Policy. The widespread
unease and apprehensions in India about the dual use capabilities of the
Chinese maritime infrastructure in the region were also highlighted
during the course of discussions.
Since the presence of the Chinese Navy in Indian Ocean and that of
Indian Navy in Western Pacific was a foregone conclusion, collaboration
between the maritime forces of India and China was recommended. To
build confidence between the two maritime forces, common consultative
mechanisms, confidence building measures, establishment of hotlines,
better mutual understanding to follow SOP’s, prior notification of
maritime activities, regular cooperative engagements at bilateral level
and increased dialogue and exchange were suggested.
The Chinese side gave an account of the tensions in South China Sea
(SCS) and its impact on regional security. The Philippines arbitration
case and claims by the US that China is militarizing the man-made
islands are driving China into a defensive stand on the issue.
The Chinese scholars also expressed concerns regarding emerging
trends in the Indo-Pacific regional security structure such as the
proposed quadrilateral security cooperation framework between India,
US, Japan and Australia, the trilateral security framework between the
US, Japan and India.
The Indian scholars raised issues related to China’s conduct in the
Indian Ocean. It was observed that even though China’s core interests lie
eastward of Straits of Malacca, it is establishing military presence
westwards to create a strategic distraction or strategic depth in the
background of increasing US presence in the Western Pacific. The Indian
side raised concerns about China’s growing capability to stretch its
strategic frontiers to the IOR through its rapidly expanding distant power
projection capabilities. The Indian speaker highlighted that whilst the
Maritime Silk Route (MSR) is advocated as commercial and inclusive
initiative, it appears to be unilateral in its approach and that there exist
ambiguities related to its strategic content.
The major focus of the discussions during the Dialogue was to find
ways and means to enhance cooperation and partnership between India
and China in the Indo-Pacific region. There was a consensus on the need
to uphold security and stability through increased partnership and
cooperative mechanisms and transparency.
This Dialogue was refreshingly different from the earlier ones as both
sides were willing to accept that there were certain issues for which an
immediate solution might not be in sight; yet there is a resolve to
continue engaging constructively. Unlike in the past, wherein, each side
had fixed positions on various issues, during this Dialogue, each side
appeared comfortable in moving away from those positions and discuss a
wide array of issues whilst adopting a flexible approach with a spirit of
accommodation.
Both sides agreed that there was a need for managing interpretations
to improve bilateral relations. Whilst every effort must be made for a winwin outcome in bilateral engagements, even if win-win is unequal, till
such time any side does not lose, those engagements should be
acceptable. Each side agreed that cooperation and competition will
coexist between India and China. Also, each side must endeavour to
engage
in
a
manner
such
that
competition
does
not
dominate
cooperation.
* Commander Dinesh Yadav is a Research Fellow at the National
Maritime Foundation (NMF), New Delhi. The views expressed are his
own and do not reflect the official policy or position of the NMF, the
Indian Navy or the Government of India. He can be reached at
cdrdineshyadav@yahoo.in