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BAB VI. MANAGING POLITICAL RISK AND NEGOTIATION

Tujuan Bahasan

1

. Membahas bagaimana perusahaan mengevaluasi

resiko politik.

2. Metode yang digunakan untuk memanage dan

mengurangi resiko politik.

3. Membahas bagaimana proses negosiasi berjalan dan

pengaruh budaya terhadap negosiasi.

4. Membahas jenis – jenis negosiasi, gaya negosiasi,

metode dan taktik negosiasi.

DEFINISI

POLITICAL RISK is the likelihood that MNC’s foreign investment will be constrained by a host government’s policies.

Resiko yang harus diperhatikan MNC dalam memasuki

negara dunia Ketiga (melakukan bisnis) antara lain adalah :

 _{belum meningkatkan investasi asing}

 _{alat produksi produksi (negara dituju dan investor)}

Contoh: negara eropa timur, tinggi ketidakstabilannya

• Prospek konflik asing

• Hubungan dg batas negara • Ketidakstabilan regional

• Aliansi dg kekuatan regional

• Sumber-sumber bahan baku utama • Pasar asing

• Kebijakan dengn US

• Kebijakan US dengan negara

• Pemerintahan dlm kekuasaan

• Agen-agen dan kantor kunci

• Birokrasi-legeslatif

• Kebijakan ekonomi,keuangan sosial, tenaga kerja dll

• Sikap sektor swasta

• Jaringan kerja kekuasaan

Partai-partai politik

(didlm dan diluar kekuasaan): • Kebijakan-kebijakan

• Perjuangan kekuasaan internal

• Wilayah dan sektor-sektor kekuatan

Kelompok Penting lain :

• Pergerakan dan gabungan tenaga kerja

• Militer dan kelpk khusus dlm militer

• Keluarga

• Komunitas bisnis dan keuangan

• Intelegensia

• Mahasiswa

•Kelompok Agama

• Media

• Pemerintah daerah

• Aktivis sosial dan lingkungan

• Budaya, bahasa, kelompok etnis

• Para separatis

• Komunitas Asing

• Pesaing dan Pelanggan

FaktorInternal

• Kekuatan perjuangan diantara para etnis

• Konfrontasi etnik • Perjuangan regional

• Faktor ekonomi (inflasi, harga upah, pengangguran, supply, tax dll)

Analisis Resiko Politik

 _{Macro Political Risk Analysis}

mengulas keputusan-keputusan politik besar yang mempepngaruhi seluruh perusahaan di suatu negara.

 _{Micro Political Risk Analysis}

mengarah pada kebijakan-kebijakan dan tindakan pemerintah yang mempengaruhi sektor-sektor

ekonomi tertentu atau bisnis asing khusus dalam suatu negara.

Kebijakan pemerintah meliputi :

 _{peraturan industri}  _{Peraturan pajak}

MANAGING POLITICAL RISK

Dalam dua dekade terkahir, bisnis perusahaan mencari cara untuk mengelola resiko politik. Proses ini diawali dengan analisa mendetail ttg berbagai resiko politk yang akan dihadapi MNC’s, meliputi :

 _{development of comprehensive frame work}

 _{Assigns a quantitative risk or rating factor to them}

Developing a comprehensive frame work meliputi:

 _{memperhatikan/mempertimbangkan resiko politik}  _{mengidentifikasi yang paling penting}

SCHMIDT menawarkan 3 dimensi

kerangka kerja Yang meliputi :



_{POLITICAL RISK}



_{GENERAL INVESTMENT}

_{Transfer Risk}

muncul dari kebijakan pemerintah yang membatasi

modal, pembayaran, produksi, orang dan teknologi

yang keluar masuk negara.

Contoh : tarif ekspor/impor, batasan X,M

 _{Operational Risk}

diakibatkan adanya kebijakan pemerintah dan prosedur-prosedur yang secara langsung

membatasi

manajemen dan kinerja operasi lokal.Contoh : pengen

dalian harga,keuangan, pajak, komitmen ekspor dan

local sourcing requirement.

 _{Ownership – Control Risk}

diakibatkan dari kebijakan pemerintah atau kegiatan yang mengatur kepemilikan atau kontrol

operasi lokal. Contoh : batasan kepemilikan asing

batasan partisipasi lokal

Political Risk dpt dipecah

jadi 3 bagian :

High High High

Low Low Low

G e n e ra l In v e s tm e n t Spec

ial In

vestm ent Conglomerate Vertical Horizontal I II III IV V I

A Three-Dimensional Framework For Assessing Political Risk

Political Risk

General Nature Of Investment

dibagi 3:



_{Conglomerate Investment}



_{Vertical Investment}

Conglomerate investment

 _{barang-barang dan jasa yang diproduksi}

tidak sama dg yang diproduksi di negara asal

 _{tipe investasi ini biasanya tingkat resiko tinggi}

Vertical Investment

 meliputi produksi raw material dan barang

setengah

jadi yang diproses menjadi barang jadi

 _{resiko investasi ditanggung pemerintah}  _{pemerintah suka bisnia yang membantu}

modal asing

Horizontal Investment

 _{memproduksi barang dan jasa yang sama}

dengan yang diproduksi negara asal.

 _{investasi ini dibuat untuk memuaskan permintaan}

Special Nature of Investment

Berkaitan dengan kegiatan ekonomi, kecanggihan teknologi Dan pola kepemilikan.

3 sektor kegiatan ekonomi meliputi :

1. Sektor primer, terdiri dari pertanian, kehutanan, eksplorasi mineral

2. Sektor Industri terdiri dari industri manufaktur dan

3. Sektor Jasa terdiri dari jasa transpotasi,

Quantifying the variable in Managing Political Risk

Criteria for quantifying Political Risk Major Area Political and Economic environment Domestic economic Conditions External Economic Relation Criteria

1. Kestabilan sistem politik 2. Konflik internal

3. Ancaman thdp kestab.dunia luar

4. Tingkat pengendalian sistem ekonomi 5. Jaminan kelembagaan

6. Efektivitas administrasi umum

7. Hubungan perburuhan dan kedamaian sosial

8. Jumlah penduduk 9. Income per capita

10. Pertumbuhan ekonomi selama 5 thn terakhir 11. Prospek pertumbuhan 3 thn kedepan

12. Inflasi 2 thn terakhir

13. Ktersediaan high-quality tenaga kerja lokal

14. Kemungkinan memberi kesemptn kerja t.k asing 15. Ketersediaan sumber energi

16. Legalitas perlindungan lingkungan 17. Traffic system and communication

18. Batasan impor 19. Batasan ekspor

20. Batasan investasi asing dlm negri 21. Kebebasan membuat partneship

22. Perlindungan legal akan brand and product 23. Batasan transfer keuangan

Score

Min max

3 14 0 14 0 12 5 9

2 12

3 12

3 15

4 8

2 10

2 7

3 10

2 10

2 8

2 8

2 14

4 8

2 14

2 10

2 10

3 9

3 9

4 9

Formulating Appropriate Responses

Ada 2 pendekatan :

•Relative Bargaining Power

Perusahaan bekerja untuk memperoleh posisi bargaining yang lebih kuat di host country.

High Low B A R G A I N N G P O W E R Initial investment _Time • A • C

• E .

B

D

Subsidiary’s bargaining power

Host nation’s

• Integrative and Protective and Defensive Technique

Integrative Technique dirancang untuk membantu Operasi overseas menjadi bagian dari infrastruktur Host country, meliputi :

1) Membangun hubungan baik dg pemerintah dan kelompok politik lokal

2) Memproduksi sebanyak mungkin produk dg

menggunakan supplier dan subkontraktor lokal shg menjadi produk domestik.

3) Membangun joint venture dan rekrut tenaga lokal 4) Lakukan sebanyak mungkin R&D lokal

5) Membangun hubungan manajemen tenaga kerja yang efektif.

MANAGING INTERNATIONAL NEGOTIATION

Definisi

Negotiation is the process of bargaining with one or more parties for the purpose of arrive at a solution that is acceptable to all.

(Hodgetts and Luthans, 168)

Negotiation is a process in which two or more parties who have both common interest and conflicting

interest put forth and discuss explicit proposals concerning specific terms of a possible agreement.. (Gordon)

PROSES NEGOSIASI

Ada beberapa langkah dasar yang dapat digunakan dalam Proses memenaj negosiasi.

Langkah-Langkah Negosiasi (Hodget-Luthans,169)

• Planning

1). Setting of limits on single point objective 2). Dividing issues into short and long-term concideration and deciding how to

handle each.

3). Determining the sequence in which to discuss the various issues.

• Interpersonal Relationship Building

• Persuasion

The success of persuasion step often depends on :

1) how well the parties understand each other’s positions. 2) the ability of each to identify areas similarity and

differences.

3) the ability to create new options and

4) the willingness to work toward a solution that allows all parties to walk away that they have achieved their objectives.

• Agreement

The final phase of negotiations is the granting of

concessions and the hammering out of a final agreement .

Agreement depends on cultural differences

Prosess Negosiasi

Four Basic Steps (Gordon) :

1. Preparation

• Mengupulkan informasi (ttg pihak lain, barang

jasa yang diminta).

• Menetapkan target (keputusan secara detail yang

dibutuhkan).

2. Evaluation Of Alternatives

• Setiap pihak mencoba mengidentifikasi wilayah

tawar (bargaining range) ttg kemungkinan apa yang

dapat memuaskan kedua belah pihak. • Setiap pihak juga menentukan alternatif

apa yang

dapat disediakan untuk pihak alain apabila perjanjian/ kesepakatan tidak dapat

Style and Behaviour of Negotiation

 _{Submissive (passive) behaviour}

backing down complaint reluctant to impose yourself yielding

accomodating unreststing

 _{Aggressive Behaviour}

Violent forcefull

fighting quarell some exerting pressure pregnacions

 _{Assertive Behaviour}

not trying to dominate insistent to positive

TWO MAJOR TYPES OF NEGOTIATIONS

1. DISTRIBUTIVES

• Most commonly used type of negotiation

• based on idea that everytime one party wins, the other must give up something.

2. INTEGRATIVES

• A cooperative negotiation strategy

• Based on the idea that both parties gain As a result of the negotiation.

• To be effective this type of negotiation , requires :

1). Both parties to have a strong desire to seek an agreement that meet the need of both parties.

2). A problem-solving approach rather than a desire to win at any cost to the other party.

3). A level of trust that allows information to be shared openly and honesty (win-win situatin).

NEGOTIATION STRATEGIES

Three basic strategies 1. Competition

• One party seek to gain at the expense of the other • One or both parties likely to use a variety of

strategies- secrecy, treats, lies.

2. Collaboration

each party take a problem solving approach look for that satisfy both parties.

3. Sub-ordination

one party deliberately sub ordinates own goal to avoid conflict with other party.

SKILL OF INTERNATIONAL NEGOTIATOR

• To be sensitive to the cultural background of others

and adjust the proposals to the cultural limitations and contraints.

• Patience

• Ability to see the world from the perspective of others and to understand others’ behaviour from

their perspective.

• Ability to express proposal atc, so that peopple on the other side of the negotiations have accurate understanding of proposals.

• Ability to manage stress and cope with ambigious situational and unpredictable demands.

• Ability to demonstrate the advantages of the

proposals so that people on the other side can see

the advantages clearly. Harries,P.R.& Moran,R.T. (1991) Managing

Cultural Differences 3rd _{edition, Houtson,} Texas : Gulf Publishing, p 59)

Perbedaan budaya mempengaruhi Negosiasi

Negotiation Styles from a cross-cultural perspectiv

Japanese

Emotional sensitivity Highly valued Hiding of emotions Subtle power liation Loyalty to employer;em-Ployer takes care of its Employees. Group decision making concensus. Face-saving crucial; deci-Sion often made on basis Of saving someone from Embarrassment. Decision makers openly Influenced by special Interest. Not argumentatives;quiet When right. What is down in writing Must be accurate

North American

Emotional sensitivity Not highly valued Dealing straight forwardly Or impersonally. Litigation not as much as conciliation. Lack of commitment to Employer;breaking of ties By either if necessary. Teamwork provides input To a decision maker. Decision made on a cost-Benefit basis; facing-saving Daes not always matt er. Decision maker influenced By special interest, which Often is not concidered Ethical. Argumentative when right Or wrong,but impersonal.

South America

Emotiona sensitivity valued Emotionally passionate Great power plays; use of Weakness. Loyalty to employer (who is Often family). Decision come down from One individual. Face-saving crusial in decision Making to preserve honor, Dignity. Execution of special interests Of decision maker expected, Condoned. Argumentative when right or Wrong; passionate. Impatient with documentation As obstacle to understanding General principles. Impulsive, spontaneuos Decision Making.

Negotiation tactics

1. Location

2. Time limits

3. Buyer-seller relations

Bargaining Behaviour

Penelitian menunjukka bahwa keuntungan meningkat karena para negosiator :

1. Membuat tawaran awal tinggi 2. Menanyakan banyak pertanyaan

3. Tidak membuat komitmen verbal sampai akhir proses negosiasi.

Bargaining Behaviour

1.Penggunaan perilaku ekstrim

2.Berjanji, mengancam,

dan perilaku lain

TWO MAJOR TYPES OF NEGOTIATIONS

1. DISTRIBUTIVES

• Most commonly used type of negotiation

• based on idea that everytime one party wins, the other must give up something.

2. INTEGRATIVES

• A cooperative negotiation strategy

• Based on the idea that both parties gain As a result of the negotiation.

• To be effective this type of negotiation , requires :

1). Both parties to have a strong desire to seek an agreement that meet the need of both parties.

2). A problem-solving approach rather than a desire to win at any cost to the other party.

3). A level of trust that allows information to be shared openly and honesty (win-win situatin).

NEGOTIATION STRATEGIES Three basic strategies

1. Competition

• One party seek to gain at the expense of the other • One or both parties likely to use a variety of

strategies- secrecy, treats, lies.

2. Collaboration

each party take a problem solving approach look for that satisfy both parties.

3. Sub-ordination

one party deliberately sub ordinates own goal to avoid conflict with other party.

SKILL OF INTERNATIONAL NEGOTIATOR

• To be sensitive to the cultural background of others and adjust the proposals to the cultural limitations and contraints.

• Patience

• Ability to see the world from the perspective of others and to understand others’ behaviour from

their perspective.

• Ability to express proposal atc, so that peopple on the other side of the negotiations have accurate understanding of proposals.

• Ability to manage stress and cope with ambigious situational and unpredictable demands.

• Ability to demonstrate the advantages of the

proposals so that people on the other side can see the advantages clearly. Harries,P.R.& Moran,R.T. (1991) Managing

Cultural Differences 3rd _{edition, Houtson,}

Perbedaan budaya mempengaruhi Negosiasi

Negotiation Styles from a cross-cultural perspectiv

Japanese

Emotional sensitivity Highly valued Hiding of emotions Subtle power liation Loyalty to employer;em-Ployer takes care of its Employees. Group decision making concensus. Face-saving crucial; deci-Sion often made on basis Of saving someone from Embarrassment. Decision makers openly Influenced by special Interest. Not argumentatives;quiet When right. What is down in writing Must be accurate

North American

Emotional sensitivity Not highly valued Dealing straight forwardly Or impersonally. Litigation not as much as conciliation. Lack of commitment to Employer;breaking of ties By either if necessary. Teamwork provides input To a decision maker. Decision made on a cost-Benefit basis; facing-saving Daes not always matt er. Decision maker influenced By special interest, which Often is not concidered Ethical. Argumentative when right Or wrong,but impersonal.

South America

Emotiona sensitivity valued Emotionally passionate Great power plays; use of Weakness. Loyalty to employer (who is Often family). Decision come down from One individual. Face-saving crusial in decision Making to preserve honor, Dignity. Execution of special interests Of decision maker expected, Condoned. Argumentative when right or Wrong; passionate. Impatient with documentation As obstacle to understanding General principles. Impulsive, spontaneuos Decision Making.

Negotiation tactics

1. Location

2. Time limits

3. Buyer-seller relations

Bargaining Behaviour

Penelitian menunjukka bahwa keuntungan meningkat karena para negosiator :

1. Membuat tawaran awal tinggi 2. Menanyakan banyak pertanyaan

3. Tidak membuat komitmen verbal sampai akhir proses negosiasi.

Bargaining Behaviour

1.Penggunaan perilaku ekstrim

2.Berjanji, mengancam,

dan perilaku lain