Analisis Faktor-Faktor yang Mempengaruhi Ekspor Buah Manggis Segar di Provinsi Sumatera Utara
Lampiran 1. Luas Panen, Produksi dan Produktivitas Buah Manggis Menurut Kabupaten/Kota di Provinsi Sumater
TAHUN
2005
2006
2007
NO KABUPATEN/KOTA Luas
Luas
Luas
Produksi Produktivitas
Produksi Produktivitas
Produksi
Panen
Panen
Panen
(Ton)
(Ton/Ha)
(Ton)
(Ton/Ha)
(Ton)
(Ha)
(Ha)
(Ha)
1 Nias
27
179
6,62962963
14
93 6,642857143
7
108
2 Mandailing Natal
305
2.291
7,51147541
400
3.005
7,5125
185
1.626
3 Tapanuli Selatan
162
1.559
9,62345679
976
9.392
9,62295082
382
1.694
4 Tapanuli Tengah
191
1.550 8,115183246
374
3.035 8,114973262
251
2.768
5 Tapanuli Utara
20
77
3,85
20
77
3,85
6
33
6 Toba Samosir
1
1.626
7 Labuhan Batu
20
70
3,5
20
70
3,5
14
69
8 Asahan
14
55 3,928571429
20
79
3,95
6
145
9 Simalungun
20
258
12,9
20
258
12,9
10 Dairi
67
342 5,104477612
29
148 5,103448276
20
248
11 Karo
12 Deli Serdang
62
427 6,887096774
62
427 6,887096774
41
492
13 Langkat
48
442 9,208333333
91
801 8,802197802
24
799
14 Nias Selatan
3
33
15 H. Hasundutan
6
40 6,666666667
2
13
6,5
3
36
16 Pakpak Barat
10
51
5,1
10
51
5,1
17 Samosir
18 Serdang Bedagai
54
338 6,259259259
62
388 6,258064516
20
286
19 Batubara
20 Pd. Lawas Utara
21 Padang Lawas
22 Lab. Batu Selatan
Universitas Sumatera Utara
23 Lab. Batu Utara
-
TAHUN
2009
NO
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
KABUPATEN/KOTA
Nias
Mandailing Natal
Tapanuli Selatan
Tapanuli Tengah
Tapanuli Utara
Toba Samosir
Labuhan Batu
Asahan
Simalungun
Dairi
Karo
Deli Serdang
Langkat
Nias Selatan
H. Hasundutan
Pakpak Barat
Samosir
Serdang Bedagai
Batubara
Pd. Lawas Utara
Padang Lawas
Lab. Batu Selatan
Luas
Panen
(Ha)
14
14
107
252
253
16
2
35
7
27
21
1
105
10
2
41
0,15
48
Produksi
(Ton)
93
312
550
3.605
1.173
120
8
338
20
270
519
10
1.653
140
20
556
1
279
2010
Produktivitas
(Ton/Ha)
6,642857143
22,28571429
5,140186916
14,30555556
4,636363636
7,5
4
9,657142857
2,857142857
10
24,71428571
10
15,74285714
14
10
13,56097561
6,666666667
5,8125
Luas
Panen
(Ha)
5,00
40,01
59,75
252,94
7,73
0,75
0,60
19,92
12,89
1,00
0,10
175,80
34,95
28,12
0,71
29,14
2,37
16,51
51,50
1,40
Produksi
(Ton)
5,00
559,60
640,10
1.857,20
115,70
1,80
7,00
99,80
160,70
8,30
1,10
2.274,80
702,10
66,10
5,60
604,50
45,80
145,80
41,20
3,00
20
Luas
Produksi
Panen
(Ton)
(Ha)
1
4,15
8,5
13,9865034
32,82
656,6
10,7129707
265,31
1.949,8
7,34245276
104,41
974,8
14,9676585
19,10
62,3
2,4
11,6666667
15,07
47,8
5,01004016
28,76
148,5
12,4670287
3,00
75,5
8,3
20,70
198,9
11
2,00
10,0
12,9397042
239,28
2.959,8
20,0886981
25,04
516,4
2,35064011
7,88732394
0,76
7,3
20,7446809
12,68
124,9
19,3248945
1,15
5,8
8,83101151
15,47
139,2
0,8
79,90Utara 1.137,5
Universitas
Sumatera
2,14285714
2,25
30,4
Produktivitas
(Ton/Ha)
TAHUN
NO
2013
KABUPATEN/KOTA
Luas Panen (Ha)
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
Nias
Mandailing Natal
Tapanuli Selatan
Tapanuli Tengah
Tapanuli Utara
Toba Samosir
Labuhan Batu
Asahan
Simalungun
Dairi
Karo
Deli Serdang
Langkat
Nias Selatan
H. Hasundutan
Pakpak Barat
Samosir
Serdang Bedagai
Batubara
Pd. Lawas Utara
Padang Lawas
Lab. Batu Selatan
Lab. Batu Utara
8,3
167,1
85,1
121,4
23,5
3,2
11,9
26,1
5,9
2,7
6,0
199,4
61,2
3,3
3,8
23,8
0,5
24,0
29,5
0,3
Produksi (Ton)
78,1
1.358,1
1.515,5
2.089,9
158,4
24,6
109,7
273,5
86,9
25,8
12,5
3.041,8
2.190,3
5,5
4,1
436,1
4,4
251,0
279,8
1,9
Produktivitas (Ton/Ha)
Luas Panen (H
9,46666667
8,12698223
17,8063682
17,2135738
6,72897196
7,6875
9,21848739
10,4749138
14,7038917
9,73584906
2,08333333
15,2524695
35,7775237
1,69230769
1,07894737
18,3466554
8,8
10,4583333
9,48474576
Universitas Sumatera Utara
6,33333333
2
1
Lampiran 2. Data Nilai Ekspor Manggis Sumatera Utara, Nilai Tukar
Nominal, Volume Ekspor, Dummy Variabel, Harga Ekspor
Manggis Provinsi Sumatera Utara Tahun 2005-2014
Tahun
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
Nilai
Ekspor
US $
12.762,00
29.350,00
15.679,00
26.582,00
83.654,00
102.866,00
73.128,00
77.583,00
8.365,00
12.877,00
16.983,00
19.288,00
128.601,00
86.734,00
97.542,00
93.131,00
73.644,00
81.652,00
95.234,00
98.931,00
65.318,00
32.480,00
24.865,00
32.367,00
102.650,00
163.442,00
265.990,00
304.737,00
82.602,00
92.650,00
130.651,00
77.280,00
55.627,00
68.324,00
79.326,00
67.075,00
106.844,00
89.326,00
59.633,00
63.517,00
Nilai Tukar
Nominal
Rp/$
9.165,00
9.495,00
9.819,00
9.830,00
9.075,00
8.775,00
9.070,00
9.020,00
9.090,00
8.828,00
9.137,00
9.103,00
9.217,00
9.225,00
9.118,00
10.950,00
11.355,00
10.225,00
9.681,00
9.400,00
9.115,00
9.012,00
8.924,00
8.928,00
8.709,00
8.537,00
8.508,00
8.835,00
9.000,00
9.190,00
9.485,00
9.605,00
9.667,00
9.722,00
10.278,00
11.234,00
11.404,00
11.532,00
11.591,00
12.082,00
Volume
Ekspor
(Kg)
12.577
22.700
25.224
18.060
81.981
102.340
69.820
97.560
42.603
44.399
55.230
36.320
251.737
232.988
178.650
203.658
227.029
175.655
182.648
236.902
50.114
62.877
75.203
73.545
261.991
398.612
365.812
381.652
130.840
165.723
88.543
102.655
101.374
98.765
87.645
156.090
85.551
88.743
103.455
126.822
Dummy
Variabel
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
Harga Ekspor
Manggis
US $
1,01
1,29
0,62
1,47
1,02
1,01
1,05
0,80
0,20
0,29
0,31
0,53
0,51
0,37
0,55
0,46
0,32
0,46
0,52
0,42
1,30
0,52
0,33
0,44
0,39
0,41
0,73
0,80
0,63
0,56
1,48
0,75
0,55
0,69
0,91
0,43
1,25
1,01
0,58
0,50
Universitas Sumatera Utara
Lampiran 3. Data Variabel Setelah Ditransformasi
Tahun
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
Nilai Ekspor
(Rp)
116.963.730
278.678.250
153.952.101
261.301.060
759.160.050
902.649.150
663.270.960
699.798.660
76.037.850
113.678.156
155.173.671
175.578.664
1.185.315.417
800.121.150
889.387.956
1.019.784.450
836.227.620
834.891.700
921.960.354
929.951.400
595.373.570
292.709.760
221.895.260
288.972.576
893.978.850
1.395.304.354
2.263.042.920
2.692.351.395
743.418.000
851.453.500
1.239.224.735
742.274.400
537.746.209
664.245.928
815.312.628
753.520.550
1.218.448.976
1.030.107.432
691.206.103
767.412.394
Nilai Tukar
Nominal
Rp/$
9.165,00
9.495,00
9.819,00
9.830,00
9.075,00
8.775,00
9.070,00
9.020,00
9.090,00
8.828,00
9.137,00
9.103,00
9.217,00
9.225,00
9.118,00
10.950,00
11.355,00
10.225,00
9.681,00
9.400,00
9.115,00
9.012,00
8.924,00
8.928,00
8.709,00
8.537,00
8.508,00
8.835,00
9.000,00
9.190,00
9.485,00
9.605,00
9.667,00
9.722,00
10.278,00
11.234,00
11.404,00
11.532,00
11.591,00
12.082,00
Volume
Ekspor
(Kg)
12.577
22.700
25.224
18.060
81.981
102.340
69.820
97.560
42.603
44.399
55.230
36.320
251.737
232.988
178.650
203.658
227.029
175.655
182.648
236.902
50.114
62.877
75.203
73.545
261.991
398.612
365.812
381.652
130.840
165.723
88.543
102.655
101.374
98.765
87.645
156.090
85.551
88.743
103.455
126.822
Dummy
Variabel
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
Harga Ekspor
Manggis
(Rp)
9.300
12.277
6.103
14.468
9.260
8.820
9.500
7.173
1.785
2.560
2.810
4.834
4.709
3.434
4.978
5.007
3.683
4.753
5.048
3.925
11.880
4.655
2.951
3.929
3.412
3.500
6.186
7.054
5.682
5.138
13.996
7.231
5.305
6.726
9.302
4.827
14.242
11.608
6.681
6.051
Universitas Sumatera Utara
Lampiran 4. Data Harga Ekspor Manggis dan Harga Domestik Manggis
Tingkat Petani di Provinsi Sumatera Utara, Tahun 2005 2014
Tahun
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
Harga Ekspor
Manggis
(Rp/Kg)
2474,55
2706
3168,9
3661,2
3948
4640,48
4458,48
5400
5896,87
7765,97
Harga Domestik
Manggis Tingkat
Petani (Rp/Kg)
1484,73
1623,6
1901,34
2196,72
2368,8
2784,288
2853,4272
3456
3773,9968
4970,2208
Lampiran 5a. Tabel Summary Regresi Linier Berganda
Model Summary
Model
1
R
,934
R Square
a
,872
b
Adjusted R
Std. Error of the
Square
Estimate
,858
Durbin-Watson
2,00224E8
1,640
a. Predictors: (Constant), Nilai Tukar Nominal, Volume Ekspor , Hambatan Non Tarif,
Harga Ekspor,
b. Dependent Variable: Nilai Ekspor
Universitas Sumatera Utara
Lampiran 5b. Tabel Coefficient Regresi Linier Berganda
Coefficients
a
Standardized
Unstandardized Coefficients
Model
1
B
(Constant)
Nilai Tukar Nominal
Std. Error
3,599E8
-12402,921
36644,561
4954,285
t
Sig.
Tolerance
,443
-,022
-,338
,737
,852
1,173
387,529
,925
12,784
,000
,698
1,433
1,404E8
76048792,055
,131
1,846
,073
,722
1,385
67547,568
10757,409
,430
6,279
,000
,777
1,287
a. Dependent Variable: Nilai Ekspor
Lampiran 5c. Tabel ANOVA Regresi Linier Berganda
b
ANOVA
Model
1
VIF
-,775
Hambatan Non Tarif
Harga Ekspor
Collinearity Statistics
Beta
-2,791E8
Volume Ekspor
Coefficients
Sum of Squares
df
Mean Square
Regression
9,577E18
4
2,394E18
Residual
1,403E18
35
4,009E16
Total
1,098E19
39
F
Sig.
59,723
,000
a
a. Predictors: (Constant), Nilai Tukar Nominal, Volume Ekspor, Hambatan Non Tarif, Harga
Ekspor
b. Dependent Variable: Nilai Ekspor
Universitas Sumatera Utara
Lampiran 6a. Tabel Uji Normalitas (Kolmogorov Smirnov)
One-Sample Kolmogorov-Smirnov Test
Unstandardized
Residual
N
40
Normal Parameters
a,b
Mean
,0000000
Std. Deviation
Most Extreme Differences
1,89678793E8
Absolute
,161
Positive
,161
Negative
-,160
Kolmogorov-Smirnov Z
1,020
Asymp. Sig. (2-tailed)
,249
a. Test distribution is Normal.
b. Calculated from data.
Lampiran 6b. Tabel Hasil Uji Glejser
Coefficients
a
Standardized
Unstandardized Coefficients
Model
1
B
(Constant)
Nilai Tukar Nominal
Volume Ekspor
Hambatan Non Tarif
Harga Ekspor
Std. Error
3,865E8
1,870E8
-50550,595
19041,159
906,395
Coefficients
Beta
t
Sig.
2,067
,979
-,345
-2,655
,660
201,367
,646
4,501
,943
-9402775,421
39516290,807
-,034
-,238
,813
16779,930
5589,739
,409
3,002
,396
a. Dependent Variable: UiUi
Universitas Sumatera Utara
Lampiran 7. Tabel Durbin-Watson (DW) α = 5%
obs
N
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
45
50
55
60
65
k'=1
dL
0.610
0.700
0.763
0.724
0.879
0.927
0.971
1.010
1.045
1.077
1.106
1.133
1.158
1.180
1.201
1.221
1.239
1.257
1.273
1.288
1.302
1.316
1.328
1.341
1.352
1.363
1.373
1.383
1.993
1.402
1.411
1.419
1.427
1.435
1.442
1.475
1.503
1.528
1.549
1.567
du
1.400
1.356
1.332
1.320
1.320
1.324
1.331
1.340
1.350
1.361
1.371
1.381
1.391
1.401
1.411
1.420
1.429
1.437
1.446
1.454
1.461
1.469
1.476
1.483
1.489
1.496
1.502
1.508
1.514
1.519
1.525
1.530
1.535
1.540
1.544
1.566
1.585
1.601
1.616
1.629
k'=2
dL
0.467
0.559
0.629
0.697
0.658
0.812
0.861
0.905
0.946
0.982
1.015
1.046
1.074
1.100
1.125
1.147
1.168
1.188
1.206
1.224
1.240
1.255
1.270
1.284
1.297
1.309
1.321
1.333
1.343
1.354
1.364
1.373
1.382
1.391
1.430
1.462
1.490
1.514
1.536
du
1.896
1.777
1.699
1.641
1.604
1.579
1.562
1.551
1.543
1.539
1.536
1.535
1.536
1.537
1.538
1.541
1.543
1.546
1.550
1.553
1.556
1.560
1.563
1.567
1.570
1.574
1.577
1.580
1.584
1.587
1.590
1.594
1.597
1.600
1.615
1.628
1.641
1.652
1.662
k'=3
dL
0.368
0.455
0.525
0.595
0.658
0.715
0.767
0.814
0.857
0.897
0.933
0.967
0.998
1.026
1.053
1.078
1.101
1.123
1.143
1.162
1.181
1.198
1.214
1.229
1.244
1.258
1.271
1.283
1.295
1.307
1.318
1.328
1.338
1.383
1.421
1.452
1.480
1.503
du
2.287
2.128
2.016
1.928
1.864
1.816
1.779
1.750
1.728
1.710
1.696
1.685
1.676
1.669
1.664
1.660
1.656
1.654
1.652
1.651
1.650
1.650
1.650
1.650
1.650
1.651
1.652
1.653
1.654
1.655
1.656
1.658
1.659
1.666
1.674
1.681
1.689
1.696
k'=4
dL
0.296
0.376
0.444
0.512
0.574
0.632
0.685
0.734
0.779
0.820
0.859
0.894
0.927
0.958
0.986
1.013
1.038
1.062
1.084
1.104
1.124
1.143
1.160
1.177
1.193
1.208
1.222
1.236
1.249
1.261
1.273
1.285
1.336
1.378
1.414
1.444
1.471
du
2.588
1.414
2.283
2.177
1.094
2.030
1.977
1.935
1.900
1.872
1.848
1.828
1.812
1.797
1.785
1.775
1.767
1.759
1.753
1.747
1.743
1.739
1.735
1.732
1.730
1.728
1.726
1.724
1.723
1.722
1.722
1.721
1.720
1.721
1.724
1.727
1.731
k'=5
dL
0.243
0.316
0.379
0.445
0.505
0.562
0.615
0.664
0.710
0.752
0.792
0.829
0.863
0.895
0.925
0.953
0.979
1.004
1.028
1.050
1.071
1.090
1.109
1.127
1.144
1.160
1.175
1.190
1.204
1.218
1.230
1.287
1.335
1.374
1.408
1.438
du
2.822
2.645
2.506
2.390
2.296
2.220
2.157
2.104
2.060
2.023
1.991
1.964
1.940
1.920
1.902
1.886
1.873
1.861
1.850
1.841
1.833
1.825
1.819
1.813
1.808
1.803
1.799
1.795
1.792
1.789
1.786
1.776
1.771
1.768
1.767
1.767
Universitas Sumatera Utara
Lampiran 8. Tabel Hasil Uji Granger Causality
Pairwise Granger Causality Tests
Date: 01/10/16 Time: 12:51
Sample: 2005 2014
Lags: 2
Null Hypothesis:
HARGA_EKSPOR does not Granger Cause HARGA_DOMESTIK_TINGKAT_P
HARGA_DOMESTIK_TINGKAT_P does not Granger Cause HARGA_EKSPOR
Obs
F-Statistic
Prob.
8
8.83772
13.7842
0.0553
0.0307
Lampiran 9. Tabel Coefficient Regresi Linier Sederhana
Coefficients
a
Standardized
Unstandardized Coefficients
Model
1
B
(Constant)
Harga Ekspor
Std. Error
-209,245
60,131
,669
,013
Coefficients
Beta
t
,999
Sig.
-3,480
,008
51,943
,000
a. Dependent Variable: Penerimaan Petani
Universitas Sumatera Utara
TAHUN
2005
2006
2007
NO KABUPATEN/KOTA Luas
Luas
Luas
Produksi Produktivitas
Produksi Produktivitas
Produksi
Panen
Panen
Panen
(Ton)
(Ton/Ha)
(Ton)
(Ton/Ha)
(Ton)
(Ha)
(Ha)
(Ha)
1 Nias
27
179
6,62962963
14
93 6,642857143
7
108
2 Mandailing Natal
305
2.291
7,51147541
400
3.005
7,5125
185
1.626
3 Tapanuli Selatan
162
1.559
9,62345679
976
9.392
9,62295082
382
1.694
4 Tapanuli Tengah
191
1.550 8,115183246
374
3.035 8,114973262
251
2.768
5 Tapanuli Utara
20
77
3,85
20
77
3,85
6
33
6 Toba Samosir
1
1.626
7 Labuhan Batu
20
70
3,5
20
70
3,5
14
69
8 Asahan
14
55 3,928571429
20
79
3,95
6
145
9 Simalungun
20
258
12,9
20
258
12,9
10 Dairi
67
342 5,104477612
29
148 5,103448276
20
248
11 Karo
12 Deli Serdang
62
427 6,887096774
62
427 6,887096774
41
492
13 Langkat
48
442 9,208333333
91
801 8,802197802
24
799
14 Nias Selatan
3
33
15 H. Hasundutan
6
40 6,666666667
2
13
6,5
3
36
16 Pakpak Barat
10
51
5,1
10
51
5,1
17 Samosir
18 Serdang Bedagai
54
338 6,259259259
62
388 6,258064516
20
286
19 Batubara
20 Pd. Lawas Utara
21 Padang Lawas
22 Lab. Batu Selatan
Universitas Sumatera Utara
23 Lab. Batu Utara
-
TAHUN
2009
NO
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
KABUPATEN/KOTA
Nias
Mandailing Natal
Tapanuli Selatan
Tapanuli Tengah
Tapanuli Utara
Toba Samosir
Labuhan Batu
Asahan
Simalungun
Dairi
Karo
Deli Serdang
Langkat
Nias Selatan
H. Hasundutan
Pakpak Barat
Samosir
Serdang Bedagai
Batubara
Pd. Lawas Utara
Padang Lawas
Lab. Batu Selatan
Luas
Panen
(Ha)
14
14
107
252
253
16
2
35
7
27
21
1
105
10
2
41
0,15
48
Produksi
(Ton)
93
312
550
3.605
1.173
120
8
338
20
270
519
10
1.653
140
20
556
1
279
2010
Produktivitas
(Ton/Ha)
6,642857143
22,28571429
5,140186916
14,30555556
4,636363636
7,5
4
9,657142857
2,857142857
10
24,71428571
10
15,74285714
14
10
13,56097561
6,666666667
5,8125
Luas
Panen
(Ha)
5,00
40,01
59,75
252,94
7,73
0,75
0,60
19,92
12,89
1,00
0,10
175,80
34,95
28,12
0,71
29,14
2,37
16,51
51,50
1,40
Produksi
(Ton)
5,00
559,60
640,10
1.857,20
115,70
1,80
7,00
99,80
160,70
8,30
1,10
2.274,80
702,10
66,10
5,60
604,50
45,80
145,80
41,20
3,00
20
Luas
Produksi
Panen
(Ton)
(Ha)
1
4,15
8,5
13,9865034
32,82
656,6
10,7129707
265,31
1.949,8
7,34245276
104,41
974,8
14,9676585
19,10
62,3
2,4
11,6666667
15,07
47,8
5,01004016
28,76
148,5
12,4670287
3,00
75,5
8,3
20,70
198,9
11
2,00
10,0
12,9397042
239,28
2.959,8
20,0886981
25,04
516,4
2,35064011
7,88732394
0,76
7,3
20,7446809
12,68
124,9
19,3248945
1,15
5,8
8,83101151
15,47
139,2
0,8
79,90Utara 1.137,5
Universitas
Sumatera
2,14285714
2,25
30,4
Produktivitas
(Ton/Ha)
TAHUN
NO
2013
KABUPATEN/KOTA
Luas Panen (Ha)
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
Nias
Mandailing Natal
Tapanuli Selatan
Tapanuli Tengah
Tapanuli Utara
Toba Samosir
Labuhan Batu
Asahan
Simalungun
Dairi
Karo
Deli Serdang
Langkat
Nias Selatan
H. Hasundutan
Pakpak Barat
Samosir
Serdang Bedagai
Batubara
Pd. Lawas Utara
Padang Lawas
Lab. Batu Selatan
Lab. Batu Utara
8,3
167,1
85,1
121,4
23,5
3,2
11,9
26,1
5,9
2,7
6,0
199,4
61,2
3,3
3,8
23,8
0,5
24,0
29,5
0,3
Produksi (Ton)
78,1
1.358,1
1.515,5
2.089,9
158,4
24,6
109,7
273,5
86,9
25,8
12,5
3.041,8
2.190,3
5,5
4,1
436,1
4,4
251,0
279,8
1,9
Produktivitas (Ton/Ha)
Luas Panen (H
9,46666667
8,12698223
17,8063682
17,2135738
6,72897196
7,6875
9,21848739
10,4749138
14,7038917
9,73584906
2,08333333
15,2524695
35,7775237
1,69230769
1,07894737
18,3466554
8,8
10,4583333
9,48474576
Universitas Sumatera Utara
6,33333333
2
1
Lampiran 2. Data Nilai Ekspor Manggis Sumatera Utara, Nilai Tukar
Nominal, Volume Ekspor, Dummy Variabel, Harga Ekspor
Manggis Provinsi Sumatera Utara Tahun 2005-2014
Tahun
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
Nilai
Ekspor
US $
12.762,00
29.350,00
15.679,00
26.582,00
83.654,00
102.866,00
73.128,00
77.583,00
8.365,00
12.877,00
16.983,00
19.288,00
128.601,00
86.734,00
97.542,00
93.131,00
73.644,00
81.652,00
95.234,00
98.931,00
65.318,00
32.480,00
24.865,00
32.367,00
102.650,00
163.442,00
265.990,00
304.737,00
82.602,00
92.650,00
130.651,00
77.280,00
55.627,00
68.324,00
79.326,00
67.075,00
106.844,00
89.326,00
59.633,00
63.517,00
Nilai Tukar
Nominal
Rp/$
9.165,00
9.495,00
9.819,00
9.830,00
9.075,00
8.775,00
9.070,00
9.020,00
9.090,00
8.828,00
9.137,00
9.103,00
9.217,00
9.225,00
9.118,00
10.950,00
11.355,00
10.225,00
9.681,00
9.400,00
9.115,00
9.012,00
8.924,00
8.928,00
8.709,00
8.537,00
8.508,00
8.835,00
9.000,00
9.190,00
9.485,00
9.605,00
9.667,00
9.722,00
10.278,00
11.234,00
11.404,00
11.532,00
11.591,00
12.082,00
Volume
Ekspor
(Kg)
12.577
22.700
25.224
18.060
81.981
102.340
69.820
97.560
42.603
44.399
55.230
36.320
251.737
232.988
178.650
203.658
227.029
175.655
182.648
236.902
50.114
62.877
75.203
73.545
261.991
398.612
365.812
381.652
130.840
165.723
88.543
102.655
101.374
98.765
87.645
156.090
85.551
88.743
103.455
126.822
Dummy
Variabel
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
Harga Ekspor
Manggis
US $
1,01
1,29
0,62
1,47
1,02
1,01
1,05
0,80
0,20
0,29
0,31
0,53
0,51
0,37
0,55
0,46
0,32
0,46
0,52
0,42
1,30
0,52
0,33
0,44
0,39
0,41
0,73
0,80
0,63
0,56
1,48
0,75
0,55
0,69
0,91
0,43
1,25
1,01
0,58
0,50
Universitas Sumatera Utara
Lampiran 3. Data Variabel Setelah Ditransformasi
Tahun
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
Nilai Ekspor
(Rp)
116.963.730
278.678.250
153.952.101
261.301.060
759.160.050
902.649.150
663.270.960
699.798.660
76.037.850
113.678.156
155.173.671
175.578.664
1.185.315.417
800.121.150
889.387.956
1.019.784.450
836.227.620
834.891.700
921.960.354
929.951.400
595.373.570
292.709.760
221.895.260
288.972.576
893.978.850
1.395.304.354
2.263.042.920
2.692.351.395
743.418.000
851.453.500
1.239.224.735
742.274.400
537.746.209
664.245.928
815.312.628
753.520.550
1.218.448.976
1.030.107.432
691.206.103
767.412.394
Nilai Tukar
Nominal
Rp/$
9.165,00
9.495,00
9.819,00
9.830,00
9.075,00
8.775,00
9.070,00
9.020,00
9.090,00
8.828,00
9.137,00
9.103,00
9.217,00
9.225,00
9.118,00
10.950,00
11.355,00
10.225,00
9.681,00
9.400,00
9.115,00
9.012,00
8.924,00
8.928,00
8.709,00
8.537,00
8.508,00
8.835,00
9.000,00
9.190,00
9.485,00
9.605,00
9.667,00
9.722,00
10.278,00
11.234,00
11.404,00
11.532,00
11.591,00
12.082,00
Volume
Ekspor
(Kg)
12.577
22.700
25.224
18.060
81.981
102.340
69.820
97.560
42.603
44.399
55.230
36.320
251.737
232.988
178.650
203.658
227.029
175.655
182.648
236.902
50.114
62.877
75.203
73.545
261.991
398.612
365.812
381.652
130.840
165.723
88.543
102.655
101.374
98.765
87.645
156.090
85.551
88.743
103.455
126.822
Dummy
Variabel
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
Harga Ekspor
Manggis
(Rp)
9.300
12.277
6.103
14.468
9.260
8.820
9.500
7.173
1.785
2.560
2.810
4.834
4.709
3.434
4.978
5.007
3.683
4.753
5.048
3.925
11.880
4.655
2.951
3.929
3.412
3.500
6.186
7.054
5.682
5.138
13.996
7.231
5.305
6.726
9.302
4.827
14.242
11.608
6.681
6.051
Universitas Sumatera Utara
Lampiran 4. Data Harga Ekspor Manggis dan Harga Domestik Manggis
Tingkat Petani di Provinsi Sumatera Utara, Tahun 2005 2014
Tahun
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
Harga Ekspor
Manggis
(Rp/Kg)
2474,55
2706
3168,9
3661,2
3948
4640,48
4458,48
5400
5896,87
7765,97
Harga Domestik
Manggis Tingkat
Petani (Rp/Kg)
1484,73
1623,6
1901,34
2196,72
2368,8
2784,288
2853,4272
3456
3773,9968
4970,2208
Lampiran 5a. Tabel Summary Regresi Linier Berganda
Model Summary
Model
1
R
,934
R Square
a
,872
b
Adjusted R
Std. Error of the
Square
Estimate
,858
Durbin-Watson
2,00224E8
1,640
a. Predictors: (Constant), Nilai Tukar Nominal, Volume Ekspor , Hambatan Non Tarif,
Harga Ekspor,
b. Dependent Variable: Nilai Ekspor
Universitas Sumatera Utara
Lampiran 5b. Tabel Coefficient Regresi Linier Berganda
Coefficients
a
Standardized
Unstandardized Coefficients
Model
1
B
(Constant)
Nilai Tukar Nominal
Std. Error
3,599E8
-12402,921
36644,561
4954,285
t
Sig.
Tolerance
,443
-,022
-,338
,737
,852
1,173
387,529
,925
12,784
,000
,698
1,433
1,404E8
76048792,055
,131
1,846
,073
,722
1,385
67547,568
10757,409
,430
6,279
,000
,777
1,287
a. Dependent Variable: Nilai Ekspor
Lampiran 5c. Tabel ANOVA Regresi Linier Berganda
b
ANOVA
Model
1
VIF
-,775
Hambatan Non Tarif
Harga Ekspor
Collinearity Statistics
Beta
-2,791E8
Volume Ekspor
Coefficients
Sum of Squares
df
Mean Square
Regression
9,577E18
4
2,394E18
Residual
1,403E18
35
4,009E16
Total
1,098E19
39
F
Sig.
59,723
,000
a
a. Predictors: (Constant), Nilai Tukar Nominal, Volume Ekspor, Hambatan Non Tarif, Harga
Ekspor
b. Dependent Variable: Nilai Ekspor
Universitas Sumatera Utara
Lampiran 6a. Tabel Uji Normalitas (Kolmogorov Smirnov)
One-Sample Kolmogorov-Smirnov Test
Unstandardized
Residual
N
40
Normal Parameters
a,b
Mean
,0000000
Std. Deviation
Most Extreme Differences
1,89678793E8
Absolute
,161
Positive
,161
Negative
-,160
Kolmogorov-Smirnov Z
1,020
Asymp. Sig. (2-tailed)
,249
a. Test distribution is Normal.
b. Calculated from data.
Lampiran 6b. Tabel Hasil Uji Glejser
Coefficients
a
Standardized
Unstandardized Coefficients
Model
1
B
(Constant)
Nilai Tukar Nominal
Volume Ekspor
Hambatan Non Tarif
Harga Ekspor
Std. Error
3,865E8
1,870E8
-50550,595
19041,159
906,395
Coefficients
Beta
t
Sig.
2,067
,979
-,345
-2,655
,660
201,367
,646
4,501
,943
-9402775,421
39516290,807
-,034
-,238
,813
16779,930
5589,739
,409
3,002
,396
a. Dependent Variable: UiUi
Universitas Sumatera Utara
Lampiran 7. Tabel Durbin-Watson (DW) α = 5%
obs
N
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
45
50
55
60
65
k'=1
dL
0.610
0.700
0.763
0.724
0.879
0.927
0.971
1.010
1.045
1.077
1.106
1.133
1.158
1.180
1.201
1.221
1.239
1.257
1.273
1.288
1.302
1.316
1.328
1.341
1.352
1.363
1.373
1.383
1.993
1.402
1.411
1.419
1.427
1.435
1.442
1.475
1.503
1.528
1.549
1.567
du
1.400
1.356
1.332
1.320
1.320
1.324
1.331
1.340
1.350
1.361
1.371
1.381
1.391
1.401
1.411
1.420
1.429
1.437
1.446
1.454
1.461
1.469
1.476
1.483
1.489
1.496
1.502
1.508
1.514
1.519
1.525
1.530
1.535
1.540
1.544
1.566
1.585
1.601
1.616
1.629
k'=2
dL
0.467
0.559
0.629
0.697
0.658
0.812
0.861
0.905
0.946
0.982
1.015
1.046
1.074
1.100
1.125
1.147
1.168
1.188
1.206
1.224
1.240
1.255
1.270
1.284
1.297
1.309
1.321
1.333
1.343
1.354
1.364
1.373
1.382
1.391
1.430
1.462
1.490
1.514
1.536
du
1.896
1.777
1.699
1.641
1.604
1.579
1.562
1.551
1.543
1.539
1.536
1.535
1.536
1.537
1.538
1.541
1.543
1.546
1.550
1.553
1.556
1.560
1.563
1.567
1.570
1.574
1.577
1.580
1.584
1.587
1.590
1.594
1.597
1.600
1.615
1.628
1.641
1.652
1.662
k'=3
dL
0.368
0.455
0.525
0.595
0.658
0.715
0.767
0.814
0.857
0.897
0.933
0.967
0.998
1.026
1.053
1.078
1.101
1.123
1.143
1.162
1.181
1.198
1.214
1.229
1.244
1.258
1.271
1.283
1.295
1.307
1.318
1.328
1.338
1.383
1.421
1.452
1.480
1.503
du
2.287
2.128
2.016
1.928
1.864
1.816
1.779
1.750
1.728
1.710
1.696
1.685
1.676
1.669
1.664
1.660
1.656
1.654
1.652
1.651
1.650
1.650
1.650
1.650
1.650
1.651
1.652
1.653
1.654
1.655
1.656
1.658
1.659
1.666
1.674
1.681
1.689
1.696
k'=4
dL
0.296
0.376
0.444
0.512
0.574
0.632
0.685
0.734
0.779
0.820
0.859
0.894
0.927
0.958
0.986
1.013
1.038
1.062
1.084
1.104
1.124
1.143
1.160
1.177
1.193
1.208
1.222
1.236
1.249
1.261
1.273
1.285
1.336
1.378
1.414
1.444
1.471
du
2.588
1.414
2.283
2.177
1.094
2.030
1.977
1.935
1.900
1.872
1.848
1.828
1.812
1.797
1.785
1.775
1.767
1.759
1.753
1.747
1.743
1.739
1.735
1.732
1.730
1.728
1.726
1.724
1.723
1.722
1.722
1.721
1.720
1.721
1.724
1.727
1.731
k'=5
dL
0.243
0.316
0.379
0.445
0.505
0.562
0.615
0.664
0.710
0.752
0.792
0.829
0.863
0.895
0.925
0.953
0.979
1.004
1.028
1.050
1.071
1.090
1.109
1.127
1.144
1.160
1.175
1.190
1.204
1.218
1.230
1.287
1.335
1.374
1.408
1.438
du
2.822
2.645
2.506
2.390
2.296
2.220
2.157
2.104
2.060
2.023
1.991
1.964
1.940
1.920
1.902
1.886
1.873
1.861
1.850
1.841
1.833
1.825
1.819
1.813
1.808
1.803
1.799
1.795
1.792
1.789
1.786
1.776
1.771
1.768
1.767
1.767
Universitas Sumatera Utara
Lampiran 8. Tabel Hasil Uji Granger Causality
Pairwise Granger Causality Tests
Date: 01/10/16 Time: 12:51
Sample: 2005 2014
Lags: 2
Null Hypothesis:
HARGA_EKSPOR does not Granger Cause HARGA_DOMESTIK_TINGKAT_P
HARGA_DOMESTIK_TINGKAT_P does not Granger Cause HARGA_EKSPOR
Obs
F-Statistic
Prob.
8
8.83772
13.7842
0.0553
0.0307
Lampiran 9. Tabel Coefficient Regresi Linier Sederhana
Coefficients
a
Standardized
Unstandardized Coefficients
Model
1
B
(Constant)
Harga Ekspor
Std. Error
-209,245
60,131
,669
,013
Coefficients
Beta
t
,999
Sig.
-3,480
,008
51,943
,000
a. Dependent Variable: Penerimaan Petani
Universitas Sumatera Utara