Kuliah

(1)

(2)

Bandi, 2007 2

Purpose

Technical GOAL

RENSTRA _RENOPS

Optimism

Pesimism MENINGKATKAN NILAI PERUSAHAAN

objectives

(3)

Bandi, 2007 3 BB Pembantu Tahun t Bukti Bk Jurnal Bk Besar Laporan keuangan Neraca, Laba rugi, perubahan modal, arus kas, dll.

NERACA Tahun t+1

31 Des th t 1 Jan th t+1

Proyeksian

Laba Rugi Pendapatan Rp xx Biaya Rp x

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PENDAHULUAN

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(5)

CHAPTER 8

Financial Planning and Forecasting Financial Statements

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1 & 2

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(6)

STRATEGIC PLANS

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(7)

OPERATING PLANS

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(8)

Financial Planning and

Pro Forma Statements

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& 6

(9)

THE FINANCIAL PLAN

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(10)

Steps in Financial Forecasting

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& &

(11)

2003 Balance Sheet

(Millions of $)

Cash & sec. $ 20 Accts. pay. &

accruals $ 100 Accounts rec. 240 Notes payable 100 Inventories 240 Total CL $ 200 Total CA $ 500 L-T debt 100 Common stk 500 Net fixed

assets

Retained

earnings 200

Total assets $1,000 Total claims $1,000 500

(12)

2003 Income Statement

(Millions of $)

Sales $2,000.00

Less: COGS (60%) 1,200.00

SGA costs 700.00

EBIT $ 100.00

Interest 10.00

EBT $ 90.00

Taxes (40%) 36.00

Net income $ 54.00

Dividends (40%) $21.60

(13)

AFN (Additional Funds Needed):

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0 & )

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, - ? ,A/ BA 5

) C- , - C

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1 A/

(14)

Definitions of Variables in AFN

*DB:

, -)

∆: )

!DB: ,

,4 & B

-77 , -+

(15)

/ Assets Sales 0 1,000 2,000 1,250 2,500

A*/S₀ = $1,000/$2,000 = 0.5 = $1,250/$2,500.

∆ ∆∆

∆ Assets =

(A*/S₀)∆∆∆∆Sales

= 0.5($500) = $250.

(16)

• Aset ditingkatkan sebesar $250 million.

• Berapa AFN, berdasarkan pd persamaan AFN?

AFN = (A*/S₀)∆∆∆∆S - (L*/S₀)∆∆∆∆S - M(S₁)(RR)

= ($1,000/$2,000)($500) - ($100/$2,000)($500)

- 0.0270($2,500)(1 - 0.4) = $184.5 million.

(17)

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*24)

-6 &

*24)

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(More…)

(18)

Projecting Pro Forma Statements with the Percent of Sales Method

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7 F

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6 1

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-6

(19)

Sources of Financing Needed to Support Asset Requirements

6 * 6 :

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(20)

Implications of AFN

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(21)

How to Forecast Interest Expense

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(22)

Basing Interest Expense

on Debt at End of Year

H F I $

$ G )

9 & & & $ &

$ & &

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(23)

Basing Interest Expense

on Debt at Beginning of Year

H F I

$ 3 & ? )

J & $

& & )

(24)

Basing Interest Expense on Average of

Beginning and Ending Debt

H &&

)

$ & & )

(25)

A Solution that Balances Accuracy and

Complexity

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6 K

6 7 &&

: $

I I

(26)

Percent of Sales: Inputs

9;L:B: 8 C 8 C

:L*B: ?/C ?/C

9 B: C C

*&& ) &)B: C C

. )B: C C

4 2*B: /C /C

*1 && )B: /C /C

2003 2004

(27)

Other Inputs

1 & ' /C

L ' $ & , - ) /

. C

0 I C

(28)

2004 Forecasted Income Statement

2003 Factor

2004 1st Pass Sales $2,000 g=1.25 $2,500.0 Less: COGS Pct=60% 1,500.0

SGA Pct=35% 875.0

EBIT $125.0

Interest 0.1(Debt03) 20.0

EBT $105.0

Taxes (40%) 42.0

Net. income $63.0

Div. (40%) $25.2

(29)

2004 Balance Sheet (Assets)

Forecasted assets are a percent of forecasted sales.

Factor 2004

Cash Pct= 1% $25.0

Accts. rec. Pct=12% 300.0

Pct=12% 300.0

Total CA $625.0

Net FA Pct=25% 625.0

Total assets $1,250.0

2004 Sales = $2,500

(30)

2004 Preliminary Balance Sheet (Claims)

*From forecasted income statement.

2003 Factor Without AFN

AP/accruals Pct=5% $125.0

Notes payable 100 100.0

Total CL $225.0

L-T debt 100 100.0

Common stk. 500 500.0

Ret. earnings 200 +37.8* 237.8

Total claims $1,062.8

2004 2004 Sales = $2,500

(31)

7 ( 5

A / )

: & $ & $ $ ) 5

A 8 )=

2 & *24 5 A

= )

What are the additional funds needed (AFN)?

NWC must have the assets to make forecasted sales, and so it needs an

equal amount of financing. So, we must secure another $187.2 of financing.

(32)

Assumptions about How AFN Will Be Raised

4 ' & & '

)

* I $ '

/ C

(33)

?? How will the AFN be financed?

Additional notes payable =

0.5 ($187.2) = $93.6. Additional L-T debt =

(34)

? 2004 Balance Sheet (Claims)

w/o AFN AFN With AFN AP/accruals $ 125.0 $ 125.0 Notes payable 100.0 +93.6 193.6

Total CL $ 225.0 $ 318.6 L-T debt 100.0 +93.6 193.6 Common stk. 500.0 500.0 Ret. earnings 237.8 237.8 Total claims $1,071.0 $1,250.0

(35)

?/ Equation method assumes a

constant profit margin.

Pro forma method is more flexible. More important, it allows different items to grow at different rates.

Equation AFN = $184.5 vs.

Pro Forma AFN = $187.2. Why are they different?

(36)

?8 Forecasted Ratios

2003 2004(E) Industry

Profit Margin

2.70%

2.52%

4.00%

ROE

7.71%

8.54%

15.60%

DSO (days)

43.80

32.00 Inv. turnover

8.33x

11.00x

FA turnover

4.00x

5.00x

Debt ratio

30.00% 40.98%

36.00%

TIE

10.00x

6.25x

9.40x

(37)

What are the forecasted

free cash flow and ROIC?

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-0 & A> A /

,4 ) H9 M

2*-4;1*0 ,K .0I, F0-- A8 A /

! . ) ) & A /

2 & $ ' FA /

(38)

Proposed Improvements

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*&& ) &)B: ) C =) C

. =)??I ) I

. B: ) C >) >C

:L*B: ?/) C ??) C

(39)

Impact of Improvements

(see

Ch 8 Mini Case.xls

_{for details)}

*24 A = ) A /)

2 & $ ' FA / ) A??)/

7;.9 ,4;1*0B9 - 8) C )=C

7;K ) C )?C

(40)

Suppose in 2003 fixed assets had been operated at only 75% of capacity.

With the existing fixed assets, sales could be $2,667. Since sales are

forecasted at only $2,500, no new fixed assets are needed.

Capacity sales = Actual sales % of capacity

= = $2,667.$2,000 0.75

(41)

How would the excess capacity

situation affect the 2004 AFN?

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$ I ' A /)

: & ' $ I '

*24 ' $ A /

(42)

Assets

Sales 0

1,100 1,000

2,000 2,500

Declining A/S Ratio

$1,000/$2,000 = 0.5; $1,100/$2,500 = 0.44. Declining ratio shows economies of scale. Going from S = $0 to S = $2,000 requires $1,000 of assets. Next $500 of sales requires only $100 of assets.

Base Stock

}

(43)

Assets

Sales

1,000 2,000

500

A/S changes if assets are lumpy. Generally will have excess capacity, but eventually a small ∆∆∆∆S leads to a

large ∆∆∆∆A.

500 1,000 1,500

(44)

Summary: How different factors affect the AFN forecast

.

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K& $ & F

F & )

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(1)

Impact of Improvements

(see

Ch 8 Mini Case.xls

_{for details)}

*24

A = )

A /)

2 &

$ '

FA / )

A??)/

7;.9 ,4;1*0B9

- 8) C

)=C

7;K

) C

)?C

(2)

Suppose in 2003 fixed assets had been

operated at only 75% of capacity.

With the existing fixed assets, sales

could be $2,667. Since sales are

forecasted at only $2,500, no new

fixed assets are needed.

Capacity sales =

Actual sales

% of capacity

= = $2,667.

$2,000

0.75

(3)

How would the excess capacity

situation affect the 2004 AFN?

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$ I

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A

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' $ I

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*24 '

$

A

/

(4)

Assets

Sales 0

1,100 1,000

2,000 2,500

Declining A/S Ratio

Base Stock

}

(5)

Assets

Sales

1,000 2,000

500

A/S changes if assets are lumpy. Generally will have

excess capacity, but eventually a small ∆∆∆∆S leads to a

large ∆∆∆∆A.

500 1,000 1,500

(6)