Pengaruh Pendapatan Asli Daerah, Dana Perimbangan, dan Kemandirian Fiskal terhadap Pertumbuhan Ekonomi di Era Disentralisasi Fiskal Kabupaten/Kota Provinsi Sumatera Utara Periode 2008-2012

Populasi Penelitian

  26 Pematang Siantar

  20 Serdang Bedagai

  21 Batu Bara

  22 Padang Lawas Utara

  23 Padang Lawas

  24 Sibolga

  25 Tanjung Balai

  27 Tebing Tinggi

  18 Pakpak Barat

  28 Medan

  29 Binjai

  30 Padang Sidempuan

  31 Nias Utara

  32 Nias Barat

  33 Gunung Sitoli

  19 Samosir

  65 Lampiran i

  No Kab/Kota

  8 Labuhan Batu Utara

  1 Nias

  2 Madina

  3 Tapanuli Selatan

  5 Tapanuli Utara

  6 Toba Samosir

  7 Labuhan Batu Selatan

  9 Labuhan Batu

  16 Nias Selatan

  10 Asahan

  11 Simalungun

  12 Dairi

  13 Karo

  14 Deli Serdang

  15 Langkat

  17 Humbang Hasundutan

Lampiran ii Sampel Penelitian

  No Kab/Kota

  1 Madina

  2 Tapanuli Selatan

  3 Tapanuli Tengah

  4 Tapanuli Utara

  5 Toba Samosir

  6 Labuhanbatu

  7 Asahan

  8 Simalungun

  9 Dairi

  10 Karo

  11 Deli Serdang

  12 Langkat

  13 Nias Selatan

  14 Humbang Hasundutan

  15 Samosir

  16 Serdang Bedagai

  17 Tanjung Balai

  18 Pematangsiantar

  19 Tebing Tinggi

  20 Medan

  21 Binjai

  

22 Padangsidempuan

  66

Pertumbuhan Ekonomi Kab/Kota Sumatera Utara Thn 2008 PDRB=

• 105908243 -0.12277

  67 Lampiran iii

  ( ) − ( − )

( − )

x100%

  Nama Kab/Kota 2008 PDRB (t) PDRB (t-1) Selisih

  Pertumbuhan Ekonomi

  Madina 575838115 498096323 77741792 0.15608 Tapanuli Selatan 852492855 761959160 90533695 0.11882 Tapanuli Tengah 458573854 410516897 48056957 0.11706 Tapanuli Utara 502419295 467394571 35024724 0.07494 Toba Samosir 430933764 390015425 40918339 0.10491 Labuhanbatu 1062723985 996983982 65740003 0.06594 Asahan 756746935 862655178

  Simalungun 986211444 851826911 134384533 0.15776 Dairi 515927335 419066903 96860432 0.23113 Karo 609976503 585200191 24776312 0.04234 Deli Serdang 1272248646 1093492577 178756069 0.16347 Langkat 932971963 894822943 38149020 0.04263 Nias Selatan 571503190 301533446 269969744 0.89532 Humbang Hasundutan 401444934 377863745 23581189 0.06241 Samosir 447279524 347336633 99942891 0.28774 Serdang Bedagai 569793114 503012996 66780118 0.13276 Tanjung Balai 404175668 355582539 48593129 0.13666 Pematangsiantar 475711636 409179704 66531932 0.16260 Tebing Tinggi 387432360 355582539 31849821 0.08957 Medan 1879402555 1775641992 103760563 0.05844 Binjai 402073730 383799124 18274606 0.04762 Padangsidempuan 380185358 347071106 33114252 0.09541

Pertumbuhan Ekonomi Kab/Kota Sumatera Utara Thn 2009 PDRB=

  68 Lampiran iv

  ( ) − ( − )

( − )

x100%

  PDRB (t) PDRB (t-1) Selisih Pertumbuhan

  Ekonomi 570796379 575838115 -5041736 -0.00883281 552194760 852492855 -300298095 -0.543826412 457946235 458573854 -627619 -0.001370508 566892707 502419295 64473412 0.113731243 463273200 430933764 32339436 0.069806404 772813384 1062723985 -289910601 -0.37513662 759527867 756746935 2780932 0.003661396 981198871 986211444 -5012573 -0.005108621 504327750 515927335 -11599585 -0.023000093 680848465 609976503 70871962 0.104093592 1329881428 1272248646 57632782 0.043336782 992177367 932971963 59205404 0.059672198 625537335 571503190 54034145 0.086380368 408813288 401444934 7368354 0.018023763 597884204 447279524 150604680 0.251896068 653593863 569793114 83800749 0.128215324 404175668 404175668 505763901 475711636 30052265 0.059419553 409709862 387432360 22277502 0.054373849

  2495746996 1879402555 616344441 0.246957902 410164161 402073730 8090431 0.019724861 385187674 380185358 5002316 0.012986698

Pertumbuhan Ekonomi Kab/Kota Sumatera Utara Thn 2010 PDRB=

  69 Lampiran v

  ( ) − ( − )

( − )

x100%

  PDRB (t) PDRB (t-1) Selisih Pertumbuhan Ekonomi 605673909 570796379 34877530 0.061103278 514360615 552194760 -37834145 -0.068515944 453053514 457946235 -4892721 -0.010684051 622669517 566892707 55776810 0.098390417 462914653 463273200 -358547 -0.000773943 602340061 772813384 -170473323 -0.220587954 803859063 759527867 44331196 0.05836678

  1018775568 981198871 37576697 0.038296719 547309805 504327750 42982055 0.085226433 674964354 680848465 -5884111 -0.008642321 1382469619 1329881428 52588191 0.039543519

  1045642691 992177367 53465324 0.053886861 563118934 625537335 -62418401 -0.099783654 436721786 408813288 27908498 0.068267101 446748973 597884204 -151135231 -0.252783449 681388782 653593863 27794919 0.042526285 384723557 404175668 -19452111 -0.048127863 505763900 505763901 -1 -1.97721E-09 403985910 409709862 -5723952 -0.013970745

  2634507194 2495746996 138760198 0.055598664 449912012 410164161 39747851 0.096907177 385577638 385187674 389964 0.0010124

Pertumbuhan Ekonomi Kab/Kota Sumatera Utara Thn 2011 PDRB=

  70 Lampiranvi

  ( ) − ( − )

( − )

x100%

  PDRB (t) PDRB (t-1) Selisih Pertumbuhan Ekonomi 683211467 605673909 77537558 0.128018653 676602707 514360615 162242092 0.315424796 566818632 453053514 113765118 0.251107462 746114336 622669517 123444819 0.198250943 486205563 462914653 23290910 0.050313616 672898410 602340061 70558349 0.117140389 930300675 803859063 126441612 0.157293259

  1122766297 1018775568 103990729 0.102074227 590631559 547309805 43321754 0.079153988 737316696 674964354 62352342 0.092378718 1666159891 1382469619 283690272 0.20520543

  1117414307 1045642691 71771616 0.068638758 589321759 563118934 26202825 0.0465316 507387382 436721786 70665596 0.161809184 503311463 446748973 56562490 0.12660911 779953807 681388782 98565025 0.144653137 391229898 384723557 6506341 0.01691173 588080074 505763900 82316174 0.162756128 499368456 403985910 95382546 0.236103645

  3136826933 2634507194 502319739 0.190669337 606477776 449912012 156565764 0.347991962 502364098 385577638 116786460 0.302887015

Pertumbuhan Ekonomi Kab/Kota Sumatera Utara Thn 2012 PDRB=

  71 Lampiran vii

  ( ) − ( − )

( − )

x100%

  PDRB (t) PDRB (t-1) Selisih Pertumbuhan

  Ekonomi 822039426 683211467 138827959 0.203199106 783006713 676602707 106404006 0.157262164 722128924 566818632 155310292 0.274003505 762884781 746114336 16770445 0.022477044 658498617 486205563 172293054 0.354362572 801728445 672898410 128830035 0.191455401 1062015892 930300675 131715217 0.141583491

  1408013221 1122766297 285246924 0.254057256 658494400 590631559 67862841 0.114898772 813300261 737316696 75983565 0.103054177 1860799680 1666159891 194639789 0.116819394

  1430047255 1117414307 312632948 0.279782482 648206150 589321759 58884391 0.099918915 616095231 507387382 108707849 0.214250202 510120051 503311463 6808588 0.013527584 887638460 779953807 107684653 0.138065424 499140743 391229898 107910845 0.275824638 687017318 588080074 98937244 0.168237708 537633447 499368456 38264991 0.076626768

  3078876109 3136826933 -57950824 -0.018474345 745478966 606477776 139001190 0.229194202 569296237 502364098 66932139 0.13323432

Pendapatan Asli Daerah (PAD) Kab/Kota Sumatera Utara 2009-2012

  72 Lampiran viii

  Nama Kab/Kota PAD 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Madina 575049782 542069693 597246592 679506652 791409493 Tapanuli Selatan 763157528 484245436 517689957 652666732 726028773 Tapanuli Tengah 422362861 424551288 451833378 555264031 705932965 Tapanuli Utara 485050825 549892002 563641537 676187182 726053475 Toba Samosir 381343397 432909612 457876507 486356687 656081814 Labuhanbatu 851601409 4989993409 540259399 670125418 764412735 Asahan 605016764 677151263 721041081 843677575 1039734135 Simalungun 880839631 959295423 970540796 1078592676 1394640673 Dairi 466825993 454497732 503351826 549635477 612556975 Karo 520287440 545230547 584866456 650260229 753388842 Deli Serdang 1180106429 1249163262 1307283024 1624362776 1853853020 Langkat 830885012 890337146 994609313 1108552890 1378567032 Nias Selatan 345429634 371878210 407908867 491454061 540170385 Humbang Hasundutan 366363230 390313832 408726884 464390691 551371659 Samosir 327529713 355736366 375422734 415919855 447732374 Serdang Bedagai 533623627 597974896 649616644 779632146 875700482 Tanjung Balai 330396225 340843686 339701014 390371559 465842679 Pematangsiantar 447569366 474998582 474998582 565383728 669207445 Tebing Tinggi 316429679 352147725 346645563 412196446 482097882 Medan 1747915721 1870374442 2069833895 2747359034 2998203912 Binjai 379986339 396155883 442053734 579565918 689107085 Padangsidempuan 369632712 385970485 375676076 477210918 540468368

Dana Perimbangan Kab/Kota Sumatera Utara 2009-2012

  73 Lampiran ix

  Nama Kab/Kota Dana Perimbangan 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Madina 486616770 471101581 496601753 539510212 624737082 Tapanuli Selatan 656200407 364292772 412917731 450930689 547419656 Tapanuli Tengah 361444675 375915955 395696961 421841806 507033029 Tapanuli Utara 414838157 447724986 445304912 488402686 565630017 Toba Samosir 323199553 353495330 354898543 380231093 463267888 Labuhanbatu 712849506 356828914 410592537 460031899 591320545 Asahan 549266559 577656282 589031936 629142075 751912958 Simalungun 786805461 791048414 769606466 828603068 1021460381 Dairi 409207697 402568666 409964594 443722273 521886257 Karo 476021362 474020027 483849879 515454236 615142283 Deli Serdang 971755533 988789920 1025331368 1064005654 1237551490 Langkat 764050826 775339383 859012340 928573080 1060399150 Nias Selatan 319779873 336907507 360429265 399717262 469146621 Humbang Hasundutan 318448458 340246253 337677015 374193776 439194192 Samosir 299926220 309889043 299887983 334265150 380799447 Serdang Bedagai 476461621 518391580 535626028 572521057 671314179 Tanjung Balai 271398621 285832639 280047627 312340755 350519715 Pematangsiantar 369870124 373757905 373757905 403598316 494525809 Tebing Tinggi 275502093 276289102 271044257 304033015 357856653 Medan 1057721600 1255193048 1287769042 1422441737 1417185769 Binjai 343468762 351952754 359494731 401834542 482077838 Padangsidempuan 311753570 319722122 317219703 357577097 421732104

Kemandirian Fiskal Kab/Kota di Sumatera Utara Thn 2008 KF=

  74 Lampiran x

  2008 Nama Kab/Kota

  Realisasi PAD Total Realisasi Belanja Daerah Kemandirian Fiskal

  Madina 575049782 546029071 1.053148656 Tapanuli Selatan 763157528 778314883 0.980525421 Tapanuli Tengah 422362861 421282732 1.002563905 Tapanuli Utara 485050825 499734367 0.970617306 Toba Samosir 381343397 400570675 0.952000286 Labuhanbatu 851601409 786630389 1.082594089 Asahan 605016764 673121331 0.898822747 Simalungun 880839631 957140773 0.920282215 Dairi 466825993 467291950 0.999002857 Karo 520287440 473372300 1.099108334 Deli Serdang 1180106429 1184495089 0.996294911 Langkat 830885012 831759112 0.998949095 Nias Selatan 345429634 316058544 1.092929271 Humbang Hasundutan 366363230 381073112 0.961398793 Samosir 327529713 375149771 0.873063876 Serdang Bedagai 533623627 503033147 1.060812056 Tanjung Balai 330396225 339169855 0.974132047 Pematangsiantar 447569366 440921796 1.015076528 Tebing Tinggi 316429679 329821636 0.959396366 Medan 1747915721 1872915721 0.933259143 Binjai 379986339 393514430 0.965622376 Padangsidempuan 369632712 371128329 0.995970081

Kemandirian Fiskal Kab/Kota di Sumatera Utara Thn 2009 KF=

  75 Lampiran xi

  Nama Kab/Kota Realisasi PAD

  Total Realisasi Belanja Daerah

  Kemandirian Fiskal

  Madina 542069693 561023846 0.966215067 Tapanuli Selatan 484245436 552969504 0.875718159 Tapanuli Tengah 424551288 451150422 0.94104154 Tapanuli Utara 549892002 506301592 1.08609574 Toba Samosir 432909612 460718504 0.939640167 Labuhanbatu 4989993409 706462387 7.063353267 Asahan 677151263 673309885 1.005705216 Simalungun 959295423 930438849 1.031013939 Dairi 454497732 455902250 0.996919256 Karo 545230547 590201954 0.923803358 Deli Serdang 1249163262 1253435936 0.996591231 Langkat 890337146 914660232 0.973407518 Nias Selatan 371878210 470327567 0.790679169 Humbang Hasundutan 390313832 378495284 1.031225087 Samosir 355736366 386634580 0.920084194 Serdang Bedagai 597974896 593190649 1.008065277 Tanjung Balai 340843686 359316852 0.948588089 Pematangsiantar 474998582 458837652 1.035221456 Tebing Tinggi 352147725 349459456 1.007692649 Medan 1870374442 1886588720 0.991405505 Binjai 396155883 383466883 1.033090211 Padangsidempuan 385970485 374024132 1.031940059

Kemandirian Fiskal Kab/Kota di Sumatera Utara Thn 2010 KF=

  76 Lampiran xii

  Realisasi PAD Total Realisasi Belanja Daerah Kemandirian Fiskal 597246592 602563533 0.991176132 517689957 472067567 1.096643771 451833378 434505433 1.039879697 563641537 548166791 1.028229995 457876507 462560213 0.989874386 540259399 599477429 0.901217248 721041081 716231011 1.006715808 970540796 1016067667 0.955193072 503351826 487883816 1.03170429 584866456 585246911 0.999349924 1307283024 1333248402 0.980524726 994609313 967881061 1.027615224 407908867 465293748 0.876669564 408726884 393014475 1.039979212 375422734 367805497 1.02070996 649616644 666468396 0.974714852 339701014 338243925 1.004307805 474998582 458837652 1.035221456 346645563 315430692 1.098959524

  2069833895 2235195758 0.926019069 442053734 418220391 1.05698752 375676076 356260243 1.054499017

Kemandirian Fiskal Kab/Kota di Sumatera Utara Thn 2011 KF=

  77 Lampiran xiii

  Realisasi PAD Total Realisasi Belanja Daerah Kemandirian Fiskal 679506652 650263316 1.04497153 652666732 554348545 1.177358068 555264031 544321692 1.020102706 676187182 705123140 0.958963256 486356687 479726388 1.013821001 670125418 632347460 1.059742405 843677575 892574470 0.945218134

  1078592676 1088622687 0.990786513 549635477 535857676 1.02571168 650260229 675614311 0.96247255 1624362776 1654873747 0.981562961

  1108552890 1063869134 1.042001177 491454061 479421890 1.02509725 464390691 432517403 1.073692498 415919855 431142832 0.964691569 779632146 731773294 1.065401201 390371559 393794117 0.991308763 565383728 564819922 1.000998205 412196446 437485436 0.94219467

  2747359034 3041037853 0.903428095 579565918 546497391 1.060509945 477210918 463524730 1.029526338

Kemandirian Fiskal Kab/Kota di Sumatera Utara Thn 2012 KF=

  78 Lampiran xiv

  Realisasi PAD Total Realisasi Belanja Daerah Kemandirian Fiskal 791409493 765109821 1.034373722 726028773 676023654 1.073969481 705932965 680016226 1.038111942 726053475 737946826 0.983883187 656081814 619783799 1.058565608 764412735 760581998 1.005036586 1039734135 1037633546 1.002024404

  1394640673 1378042599 1.012044674 612556975 593188127 1.032652117 753388842 750398279 1.003985301 1853853020 1826070426 1.015214415

  1378567032 1329229103 1.037117701 540170385 622728970 0.867424531 551371659 511537854 1.077870689 447732374 415012206 1.078841459 875700482 833559067 1.050556003 465842679 446140831 1.044160603 669207445 639607160 1.046278852 482097882 479585196 1.00523929

  2998203912 3021172391 0.992397495 689107085 650087241 1.060022473 540468368 527246070 1.02507804

Lampiran xv Tabel 4.1 Descriptives

  Statistic Std. Error Pertumbuhan_Ekonomi Mean .0951 .01436 95% Confidence Interval Lower Bound .0666 for Mean

  Upper Bound .1235 5% Trimmed Mean .0976 Median .0910 Variance .023 Std. Deviation .15056 Minimum -.54 Maximum .90 Range

  1.44 Interquartile Range .12 Skewness .390 .230 Kurtosis 9.716 .457

  Sumber: Data yang diolah penulis, 2015

  79

  80 Lampiran xvi

Gambar 4.1 Grafik Histogram

  Sumber: Data yang diolah penulis, 2015

  81 Lampiran xvii

Lampiran xviii Tabel 4.2 Hasil Uji Normalitas Tests of Normality

  _a Kolmogorov-Smirnov Shapiro-Wilk Statistic Df Sig. Statistic df Sig.

  Pertumbuhan_Ekonomi .144 110 .200 .849 110 .000

  82

  83 Lampiran xix

Tabel 4.3 Hasil Uji Multikolinearitas Coefficients

  ^a Model Collinearity Statistics

  Tolerance

  VIF

  

1 PAD .052 3.181

Dana_Perimbangan .091 5.028 Kemandirian_Fiskal .094 2.609

  Lampiran xx Tabel 4.4 _b Model Summary

  Adjusted R Std. Error of Model R R Square Square the Estimate Durbin-Watson _a 1 .296 .088 .062 .14584 1.614 a. Predictors: (Constant), Kemandirian_Fiskal, Dana_Perimbangan, PAD

  b. Dependent Variable: Pertumbuhan_Ekonomi

  84

  85 Lampiran xxi

  Sumber: Data yang diolah penulis, 2015

  Lampiran xxii Tabel 4.5 Hasil Regresi Linear Berganda _b Model Summary

  Adjusted R Std. Error of the Model R R Square Square Estimate _a 1 .965 .937 .932 .32809 a. Predictors: (Constant), Kemandirian_Fiskal, Dana_Perimbangan, PAD

  86

Lampiran xxiii Tabel 4.6 Hasil Uji F

  _b

ANOVA

Model Sum of Squares Df Mean Square F Sig.

_a

  1 Regression .216 3 .072 3.391 .021 Residual 2.255 106 .021 Total 2.471 109

  a. Predictors: (Constant), Kemandirian_Fiskal, Dana_Perimbangan, PAD

  b. Dependent Variable: Pertumbuhan_Ekonomi Sumber: Data yang diolah penulis, 2015

  87

  88 Lampiran xxiv

Tabel 4.7 Hasil Uji t Coefficients

  ^a Model

Unstandardized

  

Coefficients

Standardized Coefficients t Sig. B Std. Error Beta

  1 (Constant) -.148 .104 .465 .000 PAD .489 .000 -.422 -1.039 .021 Dana_Perimbangan .395 .000 .375 1.218 .045 Kemandirian_Fiskal -.024 .078 .033 .109 .914

  Sumber: Data yang diolah penulis, 2015