Globalnomic forecasting
1. Globalnomic forecasting
Gerald Celente has used the term globalnomic forecasting in his book Trends 2000 (1997) in which he deals with various trajectories and scenario of the new millennium. Globalnomic forecasting is based on as versatile facts as possible, such as political economic time series, political sources, art trends, research results in various sciences, philosophy, prevailing popular culture and fashion trends, in short: almost all sorts of information that can be combined. Trend information is public information and available to everyone. Globalnomic method trusts not only to contents analysis where the importance of the matter is defined by the universality or verifiability of the matter. Random evidence does not verify a certain phenomenon, but it is rather left outside the scope of study. The most important goal of the method is to have the correct background for the phenomena (Juntunen, 2006).
Celente (1997) defines the “quack economics” according to which 80 per cent of the households in the USA lie on a weak basis. The income level of the USA citizens has declined although national economy keeps growing. Profits have been collected by the richest fifth. According to Celente, 0.5-1 per cent of the population own 39.3 per cent of all assets such as shares, bonds, cash, insurances, paintings and jewels. The USA is a country with a very uneven distribution of income. Similar kinds of ideas have been put forward by the previously mentioned. Concentration of wealth into rare hands was one reason for the depression of the 1930’s (Batra, 1988a, 1988b).
In his book Trends 2000 (1997, pp. 35-51), Celente has stated that consumers should take into consideration
This article is based on the Finnish research: The world after the economic crisis: From the blowing off economy to the real economy. Nordbooks 2009, 220p. Esko Kalevi Juntunen, Ph.D., MA in geography, MA in farming and forestry, mayor of the Municipality of Jalasjärvi, docent in Department of Social Sciences, University of Eastern Finland; research fields: global finance and strategy, global business, life-cycle theory in the development of societies.
The world after financial crisis
the economic security and safety of their own lives. He presumes that economic development in the near future will not be as good as is generally expected. Russia is a great security risk, not as its economic development as much as its use of nuclear energy. Russia’s nuclear technology is old-fashioned and poorly maintained. Transparency of economy both in financial as well as in other sectors is almost nonexistent.
Large central areas have grown big and diseases spread easily in them. Environmental risks increase in large centres and they can become exposed to various health risks. While central areas grow, there is a risk of pollution and availability of drinking water. Drinking water can become a scarcity factor. A business based on the idea of drinking water purification technology, purification, storage, logistics and marketing could become an even remarkable area of growth. The availability of health services is an important factor. It is more important to have low-cost health care than to produce high quality health care.
In western countries, people idolize youth more and more. People train and use different kinds of therapy services in order to keep themselves juvenile. This kind of development will lead the large aging groups to fight against getting old. They will use plenty of health services, geriatrics, natural products, herbs, elixirs, fitness services and such, all aiming at stretching youth and virility. One symptom of the youth trend is the invention of viagra. Health is a growing sector in the business field. It brings with a great deal of side-effects such as anodynes and magic to expand one’s mind.
Standards of purity of food become more specified. A large field of business springs up around it. One sign of this is health fast food restaurants becoming more common (Celente, 1997, pp. 125-142). Countercultures will become important factors of change in the near future. People live in cities, education becomes more differentiated and people do ever less practical things. This brings about new kind of helplessness. Enterprises are established which will develop goods and services to facilitate people’s lives. Those making economic plans for households make such which aim at saving money. People are trained to become economical. Refurbishing and improving home architecture to help do-it-yourself-men is a growing sector giving possibilities for a new kind of business.
The use of the Internet enables ordering goods and services directly from the plant, manufacturer or the distributor. This change in the logistics has changed the western commercial practice where a traditional delivery chain is based on the manufacturer, importer, wholesale and retail trade. The Internet enables us to skip 3 stages. This increases effectiveness. At the same time it lowers prices and reduces the need for human labour. Obstacles to ordering via the Internet include viruses, criminality and daring in the electronic commerce. Such commerce requires functioning logistics, speed, security and quality. The buyer is able to compare and choose the different product groups and prices at home. The seller has very few possibilities in influencing the buyer’s choice of purchase.
Ecotourism is a growing factor in the travelling industry. When people live mainly in the cities, they get a growing willingness to go through adventures and experiences and get back to nature. Common trekking in the nature becomes a new field of business (Celente, 1997, pp. 193-203).
Western population is getting older, average age grows and the number of the aged increases. When competition is getting harder due to globalisation, fixed governmental costs such as social and health costs may become a competitive tool. Public sector’s possibilities to invest in the care of the aged reduce. The need to take care of the aged will possibly increase the amount of private business in old age people’s care. People who are getting old at the moment are way wealthier than their own parents were (Juntunen, 1999, 2003).
New possibilities in living and building are being sought. Collective housing has been seen in the history, but it is also a new kind of residential form to improve the safety of the aged. Several families can live together in a
The world after financial crisis
community. This aims at taking care of each other, caring, security for the family, feeling safe and a new kind of activity. This kind of housing replaces traditional disappearance of the family. It gives a feeling of safety to people, because the networks of safety in western societies have disappeared. A similar kind of safety net in the Asian countries is a large family. The aged have an important role in passing tradition and being respected heads of family. Respecting the aged in these cultures is a prominent feature (Celente, 1997, pp. 221-229).
Electric communication becomes more common and enables studying, meetings and intercommunication all over the world. The Internet increases information acquisition and is already available to many. Studying independent from the place of living reduces the amount of travelling. Distance learning is becoming more common and enables renewal of the studying system. It will influence the whole electric communication practice, publishing activities and data recording. Information is no longer stored in libraries and on shelves as an absolute value but it is in a fast usable form. Electric information libraries are an essential part of future. In scenarios stressing electric information collecting and studying, knowing and knowledge itself is not of importance, but the fact how the piece of information is going to be used, where it can be found and how it can be applied.
Environmental pollution has been a social topic for over 4 decades. Environmental pollution has been the source for many legal fights. Polluting industry, insufficient development of garbage disposal and negligent management of various kinds of pollutants all have produced polluted areas. Ecology has also become a foreign-policy issue, because environmental pollution may lead to large migration. Pollution does not obey state borders but it crosses them and spreads all over the world. The growth of global activities creates concern for our common climate and sufficiency of the natural resources (Celente, 1997, pp. 239-258).
International taxation is a means used with countries having production which harms the environment to get control over environmental emissions, pollution and wasting of the natural resources. Such means include trade with emission of pollutants and price fixing according to their friendliness to the environment. Discussion over emissions, their price fixing and restrictions are going on all the time. The principle of free competition is also applied to ecological activities.
Situations arise in the world where traditional security between states can no longer be secured due to environmental pollutants. People’s awareness of the situation in the different parts of the globe has improved thanks to media. All the time, there are wars going on in some parts of the world. Pollution destroys arable land. People have to migrate from their own abode in order to stay alive. Situations may arise when migration upset the stability of the globe. State borders cannot stop them. Receiving countries meet a tremendous challenge to feed the immigrants and take care of their health, health care, education and employment (Juntunen, 2006, pp. 104-106).
Central areas grow due to globalisation development. Along with privatization, the framework of general safety reduces, but the need for safety increases. Growing criminality will follow a possible increase in the development into the winners and losers, the rich and the poor. Because everyone can see the models for a good life in the media although they cannot necessarily afford these, this can cause a hunger for criminal means to get what the other already have. The growth of international criminality is the quickest and most certain consequence of globalisation. Security services as a business branch will grow during the next 20 years. The diversity and competence of the security business will grow, because developing information technology also feeds developing criminality (Celente, 1997, pp. 273-294).
The number of computer viruses has been growing all the time. Viruses form a real threat to an information society. The increasing number of them can mean systematic increasing of insecurity which aims at causing problems in the worldwide data transfer and capital flow. In this way, they try to slow down or stop the global development trend.
The world after financial crisis