THE PollS—TrEndS AMERICANS’ CHANGING VIEWS ON CRIME AND PUNISHMENT
Public Opinion Quarterly, Vol. 77, No. 4, Winter 2013, pp. 1006–1031
THE PollS—TrEndS
AMERICANS’ CHANGING VIEWS ON CRIME AND
PUNISHMENT
MARK D. RAMIREZ*
After 50 years of punitive approaches to dealing with crime, the correctional
population (i.e., individuals experiencing incarceration, parole, probation)
within the United States is higher than in any other country. An estimated
seven million Americans (one in every 34 adults) are under some form of correctional supervision (Glaze and Parks 2012). State and federal governments
continue to devote substantial resources to fighting crime despite declines in
revenue. This has led some scholars to conclude that the expansion of the
criminal justice system is as significant as other postwar developments, such
as the welfare state, the civil rights movement, and the Cold War (Edsall and
Edsall 1992; Tonry 1995; Gottschalk 2006).
Mark D. Ramirez is an assistant professor in the School of Politics and Global Studies, Arizona
State University, Tempe, AZ, USA. The author thanks James E. Monogan and an anonymous
reviewer for their helpful comments and assistance. Thanks also go to Sarah Dutton at CBS,
Sheldon Gawiser at NBC, Scott Keeter at the Pew Research Center, and Maura Strausberg at
Gallup for assistance with documentation. *Address correspondence to Mark D. Ramirez,
Arizona State University, School of Politics & Global Studies, 6th Floor, Coor Hall, P.O. Box
873902, Tempe, AZ 85287-3902, USA; e-mail: mark.ramirez@asu.edu.
doi:10.1093/poq/nft040
Advance Access publication December 10, 2013
© The Author 2013. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the American Association for Public Opinion
Research. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com
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Abstract Despite a decline in crime rates, the size of America’s criminal justice system has continued to expand in both expenditures and
the number of citizens under correctional supervision. Polls examined
here show that the public viewed national crime as declining since the
1990s, while viewing local crime rates as stable. Moreover, the polls
show that public support for “get tough” crime policies, once seen as
unwavering, has declined substantially. The decline in support occurred
across a range of policies, from judicial sentencing to the death penalty
to increasing expenditures for law enforcement agencies. Finally, polls
show fluctuations in public views regarding which political party was
better suited to deal with crime. Overall, these data illustrate that leaders
now have the opportunity to move policy in a less punitive direction and
that no single party has ownership over the issue.
Poll Trends—Views on Crime and Punishment
1007
Perceptions of Crime
The public perceived a decline in national crime after the mid-1990s, but
there is mixed evidence regarding the longevity of this change. Table 1 shows
that 71 percent of respondents believed there was more crime in 1996 than
in the previous year. This figure declined to 41 percent by 2001. From 2001
to 2002, there was a 21-percentage-point increase in the perception that there
was more crime across the nation, possibly spillover from the terrorist attacks
on September 11, 2001. An increased perception of national crime continued
from 2004 to 2011. Table 2, however, shows that 73 percent of respondents
in 1994 perceived that national crime had “gotten worse,” but by 2012 this
percentage dropped by 28 percentage points. Respondents seem more willing
to report that crime had “stayed the same” in this latter poll. Finally, table 3
shows a 15-percentage-point decline in how much respondents “worry” about
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Past issues of Public Opinion Quarterly have examined trends in public
support for capital punishment (Erskine 1970), criminal sentencing (Erskine
1974; Warr 1995), and criminal justice institutions (Shaw et al. 1998). These
articles showed an increase in public support for various punitive policies
between the 1970s and mid-1990s—an increase concurrent with actual and
perceived changes in crime (Beckett 1997). Yet crime has declined significantly since the mid-1990s. According to the FBI’s Uniform Crime Report,
violent crime declined from 1,857,670 reported instances in 1994 to 1,203,564
reported instances in 2011 (a decrease of approximately 35 percent). Similarly,
property crimes declined from 12,131,873 reported instances in 1994 to
9,063,173 reported instances in 2011 (a decrease of approximately 25 percent). Subsequently, “law and order” campaigns, prominent between 1964 and
1994, have subsided, and new issues such as global warming and immigration
have moved to the forefront (Marion, Smith, and Oliver 2009).
An examination of polls between 1994 and 2013 shows changing public perceptions of national crime consistent with changes in the crime rate. The polls
also show a decline in support for a variety of punitive policies (e.g., judicial
sentencing, capital punishment, spending on law enforcement). However, support for nonpunitive policies has remained stable, suggesting that the public
is not ready to do away with punitive solutions to crime. The polls also show
fluctuations in what party the public felt is best suited to deal with crime, but
stability in support for law enforcement authorities.
Moreover, terrorism appears to have become entangled with criminal justice
opinions and policy (Forst 2009). Public officials have linked the war on terror to organized crime, drug trafficking, and street violence (Forst, Green, and
Lynch 2011). The violent nature of both crime and terrorism can instill fear in
the public, leading to a greater need for security. Subsequently, the polls show
increases in support for punitive policies coinciding with terrorist activities,
even though these are distinct phenomena.
1008
Ramirez
Table 1. Perception of Crime in United States. GALLUP: “Is there more
crime in the U.S. (United States) than there was a year ago, or less?”
8/97
%
10/98
%
8/00
%
10/01
%
10/02
%
10/03
%
10/04
%
71
15
8
6
64
25
6
5
56
35
4
5
47
41
7
5
41
43
10
6
62
21
11
6
60
25
11
4
53
28
14
5
1,008
1,014
1,013
1,012
1,011
1,002
1,017
1,012
More
Less
Same
No opinion
N
10/05
%
10/06
%
10/07
%
10/08
%
10/09
%
10/10
%
10/11
%
67
21
9
3
68
16
8
8
71
14
8
6
67
15
9
9
74
15
6
5
66
17
8
9
68
17
8
8
1,012
1,001
1,010
1,011
1,013
1,025
1,005
More
Less
Same
No opinion
N
Table 2. Perception of national Crime. CBS/NEW YORK TIMES: “In
the last year, do you think crime in the country has increased, decreased, or
stayed about the same?”
Increased
Decreased
Stayed the same
Don’t know
N
1/94
%
1/96
%
5/96
%
7/12
%
73
3
23
1
51
12
34
3
51
14
31
4
45
7
43
5
1,146
1,076
1,200
1,089
Samples are based on telephone interviews of adults in the United States. The 2012 sample is
based on landline and cell-phone interviews of adults in the United States.
crime between 2001 and 2013. Public fear of crime reached its nadir in 2012,
when only 42 percent of the respondents said they worry “a great deal” about
“crime and violence.”
Table 4 also shows a small change in respondents’ perceived fear to walk
alone at night. The 1996 poll shows that 39 percent of respondents feared
walking “alone at night.” This figure declined by 9 percentage points by 2001,
with small year-to-year changes thereafter. According to table 5, the percentage of respondents who viewed an increase in neighborhood crime dropped
between 1996 and 2001, from 46 percent to 26 percent. However, this percentage went back up to 48 percent by 2011.
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6/96
%
Poll Trends—Views on Crime and Punishment
1009
Table 3. Worry about Crime and Violence in the nation. GALLUP: “I’m
going to read a list of problems facing the country. For each one, please tell
me if you personally worry about this problem a great deal, a fair amount,
only a little, or not at all. How much do you personally worry about crime
and violence?”
N
A great deal
A fair
amount
Only a little
Not at all
No opinion
N
3/02
%
3/03
%
3/04
%
3/05
%
3/06
%
3/07
%
3/08
%
3/10
%
62
26
9
3
0
49
27
20
4
0
45
31
18
5
1
46
26
24
4
0
46
25
26
3
0
49
36
15
4
0
48
32
16
4
0
49
31
16
3
0
43
30
21
6
0
1,060
1,006
1,008
1,005
1,004
1,000
1,009
3/11
%
3/12
%
3/13
%
44
42
47
30
19
6
0
31
21
5
0
28
20
5
0
1,021
1,012 1,014
1,024 1,022
Table 4. Fear of Crime in neighborhood. GALLUP: “Is there any area
near where you live—that is, within a mile—where you would be afraid to
walk alone at night?”
Yes
No
Don’t know
N
Yes
No
Don’t know
N
6/96
%
8/97
%
8/00
%
10/01
%
10/02
%
10/03
%
10/04
%
39
60
1
39
61
1
34
66
0
30
69
1
35
64
1
36
64
0
32
67
0
1,008
1,104
1,002
1,011
1,002
1,017
1,012
10/05
%
10/06
%
10/07
%
10/08
%
10/09
%
10/10
%
10/11
%
38
62
0
37
63
0
37
62
0
37
63
0
34
66
0
37
63
0
38
61
0
1,012
1,001
1,010
1,011
1,013
1,025
1,005
Finally, table 6 shows stability in public concern about drug use. The percentage of respondents who worried “a great deal” about drug use in 2001 was 58
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A great deal
A fair amount
Only a little
Not at all
No opinion
3/01
%
1010
Ramirez
Table 5. Perception of Crime in neighborhood. GALLUP: “Is there more
crime in your area than there was a year ago, or less?”
N
More
Less
Same
Don’t know
N
8/97
%
10/98
%
8/00
%
10/01
%
10/02
%
10/03
%
10/04
%
46
24
25
6
47
32
20
2
31
48
16
5
34
46
15
5
26
52
18
4
37
34
24
5
40
39
19
2
37
37
22
4
1,008
1,014
1,013
1,012
1,011
1,002
1,017
1,012
10/05
%
10/06
%
10/07
%
10/08
%
10/09
%
10/10
%
10/11
%
47
33
18
2
51
30
15
4
51
29
17
4
44
31
19
5
51
29
16
4
49
30
16
5
48
29
18
5
1,012
1,011
1,010
1,011
1,013
1,025
1,005
Table 6. Concern for drug Use. GALLUP: “How much do you worry
about drug use?”
A great deal
A fair amount
Only a little
Not at all
No opinion
N
A great deal
A fair
amount
Only a little
Not at all
No opinion
N
3/01
%
3/02
%
3/03
%
3/04
%
3/05
%
3/06
%
3/07
%
3/08
%
58
22
13
7
0
49
22
19
9
1
42
26
20
12
0
46
19
20
14
1
42
23
24
11
0
48
25
18
9
0
45
26
20
8
0
43
24
24
9
0
1,060
1,006
1,008
1,005
1,004
1,000
1,009
1,012
3/10
%
3/11
%
3/12
%
37
40
42
27
22
13
1
24
21
14
1
24
21
13
0
1,014
1,021
1,024
percent. This figure dropped to 49 percent by 2002, and to 42 percent by 2012.
Overall, perceptions of crime declined during the late 1990s, increased slightly
after 2001, and remained somewhat stable for the remainder of the decade.
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More
Less
Same
Don’t know
7/96
%
Poll Trends—Views on Crime and Punishment
1011
Judicial Sentencing
Table 7. Judicial Sentencing. GSS: “In general, do you think that the courts
in this area deal too harshly or not harshly enough with criminals?”
Not harshly
enough
About right
Too harshly
No opinion
N
Not harshly
enough
About right
Too harshly
No opinion
N
3/94
%
3/96
%
3/98
%
3/00
%
3/02
%
3/04
%
3/06
%
3/08
%
85
8
3
5
78
11
5
4
74
13
6
2
68
16
7
2
67
18
9
2
65
20
9
2
65
21
9
2
62
21
12
5
2,992
2,904
2,832
2,817
2,765
1,002
1,017
1,012
3/10
%
3/12
%
62
18
13
8
62
22
15
1
2,043
1,789
1. These data were disaggregated by the author using the General Social Survey Cumulative File:
Smith et al., General Social Survey, 1972–2012 [machine-readable data file]; Chicago: National
Opinion Research Center [producer]; Storrs, CT: Roper Center for Public Opinion Research,
University of Connecticut [distributor], 2013. Partisans are respondents with either a strong or
moderate affiliation with a particular political party. Independents or party leaners are excluded
from the percentages reported here. However, support for punitive policies also declined among
these groups.
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It is widely believed that public support for tougher judicial sentencing is a
permanent fixture of American politics (e.g., Aladjem 2008). In the 1990s, a
majority of Americans supported “get tough” sentencing policies such as mandatory minimums and “three strike” laws (Tyler and Boeckmann 1997). Yet,
as table 7 shows, the public’s support for tougher sentencing declined from 85
percent in 1994 to 62 percent by 2012. A seven-percentage-point drop occurred
between 1994 and 1996, while a 12-percentage-point drop occurred between
1996 and 2002. Disaggregating the General Social Survey (GSS) data between
1996 and 2000 (the period of greatest change) by subgroup shows that support
declined among men (20 percentage points), women (16 percentage points),
blacks (19 percentage points), whites (17 percentage points), Republicans (12
percentage points), Democrats (20 percentage points), respondents between
18 and 29 years of age (16 percentage points), and respondents over the age of
65 (20 percentage points).1
The decline in support for tougher sentencing could be a reaction to the
growing number of conservative judges on both federal and state courts
1012
Ramirez
(Posner 2008) or to an increase in federally mandated sentences. It is possible
that as the courts became more punitive, the public began to temper its demand
for tougher sentencing.
Capital Punishment
Table 8. death Penalty Support. GALLUP: “Are you in favor of the death
penalty for a person convicted of murder?”
Favor
Oppose
Don’t know
N
Favor
Oppose
Don’t know
N
Favor
Oppose
Don’t know
N
Favor
Oppose
Don’t know
N
9/94
%
5/95
%
2/99
%
2/00
%
6/00
%
8/00
%
2/01
%
80
16
4
77
13
2
71
22
7
66
28
6
66
26
8
67
28
5
67
25
8
1,022
1,000
1,054
1, 050
1,020
1,012
1,016
5/01
%
10/01
%
5/02
%
10/02
%
5/03
%
5/03
%
10/03
%
65
27
8
68
26
6
72
25
3
70
25
5
70
28
2
74
24
2
64
32
4
1,012
1,011
1,012
1,002
1,014
1,005
1,017
5/04
%
10/04
%
10/05
%
5/06
%
6/07
%
10/08
%
10/09
%
71
26
3
64
31
5
64
30
6
65
28
7
65
31
3
64
30
5
65
31
5
1,000
1,012
1,012
1,013
2,388
1,011
1,013
10/10
%
10/11
%
12/12
%
64
24
6
61
35
4
63
32
6
1,025
1,005
1,038
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Support for capital punishment often hinges on the question format. The
seemingly solid support for capital punishment shown in polls that constrain
respondents to either favor or oppose the policy can significantly erode when
respondents are provided with sentencing alternatives such as life without
parole. The Gallup question that constrains respondents to either favor or
oppose the death penalty for murder shows a substantial decline in public support since its peak in 1994 (Warr 1995). Responses to the Gallup question,
shown in table 8, reveal that the percentage of Americans favoring the death
Poll Trends—Views on Crime and Punishment
1013
Table 9. death Penalty opposition. GSS: “Do you favor or oppose the
death penalty for persons convicted of murder?”
Favor
Oppose
Don’t know
N
Favor
Oppose
Don’t know
N
3/94
%
3/96
%
3/98
%
3/00
%
3/02
%
3/04
%
3/06
%
3/08
%
74
20
6
71
22
7
68
25
8
63
29
8
66
30
4
65
30
5
65
29
5
64
31
5
2,992
2,904
2,832
2,817
2,765
2,812
4,510
2,023
3/10
%
3/12
%
65
31
5
65
34
1
2043
1,831
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penalty declined from 80 percent in 1994 to 65 percent by May 2001. Support
for the death penalty increased to 68 percent by October 2001, shortly after
the attacks on 9/11. Support, however, declined 10 percentage points between
2004 and 2011, suggesting that any influence of the terrorist attacks on death
penalty support was short lived.
The GSS also uses the favor-or-oppose format and shows a similar decline
in support for the death penalty. As shown in table 9, 74 percent of GSS
respondents favored the death penalty in 1994, which declined to 63 percent
by 2000. Support increased to 66 percent by March 2002, six months after
the terrorist attacks on 9/11, and stabilized at about 65 percent between 2004
and 2012. Disaggregating the change in public support between 1994 and
2002 by subgroup shows that the largest decline in support occurred among
women (13 percentage points), blacks (12 percentage points), and respondents above 65 years of age (13 percentage points). The smallest decline in
support occurred among Republicans (five percentage points) and men (seven
percentage points).
Table 10 shows a decline in the percentage of Americans saying the death
penalty is not implemented enough. In 1994, 64 percent of Americans believed
the death penalty should be implemented more. This declined to 38 percent
prior to 9/11. After 9/11, 47 percent of Americans believed the death penalty
should be used more often. This declined to 40 percent by 2011. The decline in
support for the death penalty follows a rise in litigation challenging the use of
lethal injection as a means of execution (Steiker 2013). It also occurs alongside
a decline in support among policymakers as legislative repeals of the death
penalty have occurred in New Jersey, New Mexico, Illinois, Connecticut, and
1014
Ramirez
Table 10. Implementation of the death Penalty. GALLUP: “In your
opinion, is the death penalty imposed—too often, about the right amount, or
not often enough?”
N
Not enough
About right
Too often
Don’t know
N
2/00
%
5/01
%
5/02
%
5/03
%
5/04
%
64
4
25
7
60
5
26
9
38
34
21
7
47
24
22
7
48
26
23
3
48
25
23
4
1,054
1,050
1,012
1,012
1,005
1,005
5/05
%
5/06
%
10/07
%
10/08
%
10/09
%
10/10
%
53
24
20
3
51
25
21
3
49
26
21
4
48
23
21
8
49
24
20
7
49
26
18
7
1,005
1,002
1,010
1,011
1,013
1,025
10/11
%
Not enough
About right
Too often
Don’t know
N
40
27
25
8
1,005
Maryland, while state courts in New York, Nebraska, and Kansas have ruled
its use unconstitutional.
Sentencing Choices
Declining support for the death penalty is also visible when the public
is given a choice between sentencing criminals convicted of homicide to
death or life imprisonment with no chance of parole. Table 11 shows that
from 1985 to 1999, a majority of Americans preferred the death penalty.
There is a 9-percentage-point increase in support for the death penalty
by October 1993, six months after the siege in Waco, Texas, and the same
month Congress introduced the Violent Crime Control and Law Enforcement
Act (VCCLEA). Support for the death penalty increased 11 percentage
points between 1994 and 1997, which coincides with the sentencing of the
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Not enough
About right
Too often
Don’t know
2/99
%
Poll Trends—Views on Crime and Punishment
1015
Table 11. death Penalty or Prison with no Parole. GALLUP: “What do
you think should be the penalty for murder—death or life imprisonment with
absolutely no possibility for parole?”
1/85
%
N
56
34
4
6
55
35
0
10
53
35
3
9
50
37
1
2
59
29
1
1
50
32
3
4
61
29
4
6
54
36
5
5
2/99 2/00a
%
%
56
38
0
6
45
42
0
9
1,523 1,570 990 1,222 1,244 656 819 1,004 1,054 1,050
a
”What do you think should be the penalty for murder—the death penalty, or life imprisonment
with absolutely no possibility of parole?”
Unabomber Ted Kaczynski. Support for life imprisonment was stable from
1985 to 1999 but nearly reached parity with support for the death penalty at
42 percent by 2000.
Table 12 shows responses to the same question with the addition of a question preface.2 Support for the death penalty increased to 54 percent by 2001
and remained stable for the next three years. Support for life imprisonment
also remained stable around 43 percent during this period. In the 2011 poll,
Americans were split between the death penalty (48 percent) and life imprisonment (50 percent). If we assume the changes in the question preface had little effect on respondents’ opinions, then support for life imprisonment relative
to the death penalty increased between 1985 and 2011.
Alternatives to Punishment
A series of Gallup polls, shown in table 13, reveal that a majority of Americans
from 1989 to 2004 favored attacking the social problems that lead to crime
rather than expanding the scope of law enforcement. In 1989, 61 percent
favored attacking social problems, a figure that increased to 67 percent by
1992. This figure declined to 57 percent in 2004. Support for increasing prisons, police, and judges decreased from 32 percent in 1994 to 27 percent by
2000—consistent with the overall decline in punitiveness during this period.
This figure increased to 39 percent by 2004.
Table 14 shows that drug rehabilitation programs were also popular among
a large number of Americans. From 1994 to 2010, a majority supported drug
2. The preface to the question in Table 11 asks, “[W]hat do you think should be the penalty for
murder” while the question in Table 12 asks, “[I]f you could choose between the following two
approaches, which do you think is the better penalty for murder.” A cross-comparison of the data
in 2000 shows similar responses across the variation in question wording.
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Death penalty
Life imprisonment
Neither
No opinion
1/86 6/91 3/92 10/93 6/94 8/97 1/98
%
%
%
%
%
%
%
1016
Ramirez
Table 12. death Penalty or Prison with no Parole. GALLUP: “If you
could choose between the following two approaches, which do you think is
the better penalty for murder—the death penalty, or life imprisonment with
absolutely no possibility of parole?”
N
2/01
%
5/01
%
5/02
%
5/03
%
5/04
%
5/05
%
49
47
4
54
42
4
52
43
5
52
43
5
53
44
3
50
46
4
56
39
5
5/06a 5/09b
%
%
47
48
5
53
46
2
1,012 1,016 1,012 1,012 1,005 1,000 1,005 1,013 1,010
10/10 9/11b
%
%
Death penalty
Life imprisonment
No opinion
N
49
46
6
48
50
2
1,025 1,010
a
Survey conducted by Gallup for USA Today.
Survey conducted by Opinion Research Corporation for the Cable News Network.
b
Table 13. Support for Alternatives to Punishment. GALLUP: “To lower
the crime rate in the U.S., some people think additional money and effort
should go to attacking the social and economic problems that lead to crime
through better education and job training. Others feel more money and effort
should go to deterring crime by improving law enforcement with more
prisons, police, and judges. Which comes closer to your view?”
Attack social problems
Improve law enforcement
No opinion
N
6/89
%
9/90
%
8/92a
%
8/94
%
9/00a
%
2/04
%
61
32
7
57
36
2
67
25
1
51
42
7
63
27
5
57
39
4
1,235
1,031
1,387
1,011
1,012
1,015
a
“Which of the following two approaches do you think would do more to reduce crime …
attacking the social and economic problems that lead to crime, through better education and job
training, or deterring crime by improving law enforcement with more prisons, police, and judges?”
rehabilitation programs, which is often an alternative to prisons for drug
offenders. The best description of public support for such programs over time
is stability. Fifty-two percent of respondents said the country is spending “too
little” on drug rehabilitation in 1994. This figure remained essentially stable
until 2008, when it dropped to 46 percent. Table 15 shows similar support for
Downloaded from http://poq.oxfordjournals.org/ at Jordan University of Science and Technology on July 26, 2016
Death penalty
Life imprisonment
No opinion
8/00
%
Poll Trends—Views on Crime and Punishment
1017
Table 14. Support for drug rehabilitation. GSS: “Are we spending too
much, too little, or about the right amount on drug rehabilitation?”
N
To little
About right
Too much
No opinion
N
3/98
%
3/00
%
3/02
%
3/04
%
3/06
%
4/08
%
52
30
11
6
53
29
11
7
52
30
10
8
51
30
13
6
49
34
11
6
51
31
11
7
46
35
12
7
2,992
2,832
2,817
2,765
2,812
4,510
2,023
3/10
%
3/12
%
48
33
12
7
45
36
17
2
2,043
1,789
Table 15. Support for drug Addiction. GSS: “Are we spending too much,
too little, or about the right amount on drug addiction?”
Too little
About right
Too much
No opinion
N
To little
About right
Too much
No opinion
N
3/94
%
3/96
%
3/98
%
3/00
%
3/02
%
3/04
%
4/06
%
60
26
9
5
58
27
11
4
58
28
9
4
59
28
8
5
57
30
9
3
53
34
9
4
60
30
7
4
2,992
2,904
2,817
2,817
2,765
2,812
4,510
3/08
%
3/10
%
3/12
%
54
31
10
5
55
32
10
3
55
31
12
2
2,023
2,043
1,831
drug addiction programs. Support for spending more to reduce drug addiction
started at 60 percent in 1994 and slowly dropped to 55 percent by 2012. The
percentage of respondents who believed we are spending “too much” on drug
addiction programs remained stable from 1994 to 2012.
Downloaded from http://poq.oxfordjournals.org/ at Jordan University of Science and Technology on July 26, 2016
Too little
About right
Too much
No opinion
3/94
%
1018
Ramirez
Spending to Fight Crime
Satisfaction with Crime Policies and Authorities
Although conventional wisdom places issue ownership of crime with the
Republican Party (Beckett 1997), the polls show no clear party having
Table 16. Spending to Halt Crime. GSS: “We are faced with many
problems in this country, none of which can be solved easily or inexpensively.
I’m going to name some of these problems, and for each one I’d like you to
tell me whether you think we’re spending too much money on it, too little
money, or about the right amount.…Halting the rising crime rate?”
Too little
About right
Too much
Don’t know
N
Too little
About right
Too much
Don’t know
N
3/94
%
3/96
%
3/98
%
3/00
%
3/02
%
3/04
%
3/06
%
4/08
%
75
16
6
3
67
23
7
3
61
29
7
3
59
32
5
3
56
35
7
3
56
36
5
3
60
32
7
2
59
30
7
4
2,992
2,904
2,832
2,817
2,765
2,812
4,510
2,023
3/10
%
3/12
%
58
31
8
3
59
33
7
1
2,043
975
Downloaded from http://poq.oxfordjournals.org/ at Jordan University of Science and Technology on July 26, 2016
The decreasing punitiveness is also shown in public preferences toward spending to fight crime. Table 16 shows that 75 percent of respondents believed the
nation was spending “too little” money on “halting the rising crime rate” in
1994. By 2002, this figure had declined 18 percentage points. Disaggregating
this change shows that support for spending declined among men (21 percentage points), women (18 percentage points), blacks (14 percentage points),
whites (21 percentage points), Republicans (20 percentage points), Democrats
(18 percentage points), respondents between 18 and 29 years of age (36 percentage points), and respondents over the age of 65 (21 percentage points).
Public support for greater spending for “law enforcement” also declined
between 1994 and 2012. Table 17 shows that 63 percent of respondents
believed spending for law enforcement was “too little” in 1994. That figure
dropped 16 percentage points by 2002 and remained around 53 percent from
2004 to 2008. It declined to 49 percent by 2012.
Poll Trends—Views on Crime and Punishment
1019
Table 17. Spending on law Enforcement. GSS: “We are faced with
many problems in this country, none of which can be solved easily or
inexpensively. I’m going to name some of these problems, and for each one
I’d like you to tell me whether you think we’re spending too much money on
it, too little money, or about the right amount. Are we spending too much, too
little, or about the right amount on . . . law enforcement?”
N
3/96
%
3/98
%
3/00
%
3/02
%
3/04
%
3/06
%
4/08
%
3/10
%
63
28
7
3
57
31
9
3
54
35
8
3
50
38
8
4
47
41
10
2
53
36
9
2
53
34
9
2
53
37
9
1
47
39
12
2
2,992
2,904
2,832
2,817
2,765
2,812
4,510
2,023 2,043
3/12
%
Too little
About right
Too much
Don’t know
49
39
11
1
N
935
an advantage on the issue since 1994. Table 18 shows that the majority of
respondents (52 percent) viewed both parties as equal in dealing with crime
in 1994 (per the NBC/WSJ poll), but this percentage declined to 21 percent
in 1996 before it increased to 38 percent in 1998. The Pew surveys show a
smaller number of respondents viewing both parties as equal on crime relative
to the NBC/WSJ polls. In March 1998, 11 percent of respondents viewed both
parties as equal, which declined to 9 percent by October 2006. Since 1994,
roughly equal percentages of the public favored one party over the other. In
some polls more respondents favored the Democratic Party (i.e., 1998, 2002),
while in other polls more respondents favored the Republican Party (i.e., 1994,
1995, 1997, 2006).
Table 19 shows public satisfaction with national crime policies from 2001 to
2013. A small but stable percentage of respondents were “very satisfied” with
national policies to reduce crime. This percentage never rose above 11 percent
during this period. Almost twice as many respondents were “very dissatisfied”
with crime policies, although this number decreased seven percentage points
from 2001 to 2002. Dissatisfaction peaked by 2013, with 24 percent of the
public saying they were “very dissatisfied.”
Finally, table 20 shows satisfaction with law enforcement authorities. The
poll specifically asks respondents how much confidence they have in their local
Downloaded from http://poq.oxfordjournals.org/ at Jordan University of Science and Technology on July 26, 2016
Too little
About right
Too much
Don’t know
3/94
%
N
Democratic Party
Republican Party
About the same
Neither
Not sure
N
NBC/WSJ
6/94
%
NBC/WSJ
10/94
%
NBC/WSJ
11/94
%
NBC/WSJ
6/95
%
NBC/WSJ
12/95
%
9
20
52
15
4
18
26
33
19
4
23
28
21
12
7
14
25
34
19
8
17
32
25
20
6
20
27
27
20
6
1,002
1,005
1,509
802
1,008
2,007
NBC/WSJ
5/96
%
NBC/WSJ
10/96
%
NBC/WSJ
9/97
%
Pew
3/98
%
Pew
8/98
%
NBC/WSJ
10/98
%
21
31
25
16
7
30
28
21
13
8
21
27
29
16
7
35
34
11
10
10
39
32
10
7
12
19
27
38
10
6
1,001
1,008
2,004
1,206
2,226
1,025
Ramirez
Continued
Downloaded from http://poq.oxfordjournals.org/ at Jordan University of Science and Technology on July 26, 2016
Democratic Party
Republican Party
About the same
Neither
Not sure
NBC/WSJ
5/94
%
1020
Table 18. Which Party Is Better Suited to deal with Crime?. “When it comes to dealing with crime, which party do you think
would do a better job—the Democratic Party, the Republican Party, both about the same, or neither?”
Democratic Party
Republican Party
About the same
Neither
Not sure
N
Pew
6/99
%
NBC/WSJ
12/99
%
Pew
9/02
%
Pew
2/06
%
Pew
9/06
%
Pew
10/06a
%
35
35
12
6
12
22
26
33
14
5
35
26
14
10
15
37
30
8
10
15
32
34
8
10
16
29
33
9
9
20
1,153
2,014
1,919
1,502
1,507
2,006
The NBC/WSJ samples consist of telephone interviews of adults in the United States conducted by Hart and Teeter Research Companies. The Pew samples consist
of telephone interviews of adults in the United States conducted by Princeton Survey Research.
a
Sample contains oversample of 515 respondents in competitive U.S. House elections.
Poll Trends—Views on Crime and Punishment
Table 18. Continued
1021
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1022
Ramirez
Table 19. Satisfaction with national Criminal Justice Policy. GALLUP:
“We’d like to know how you feel about the state of the nation in each of the
following areas. For each one, please say whether you are very satisfied,
somewhat satisfied, somewhat dissatisfied, or very dissatisfied. If you don’t
have enough information about a particular subject to rate it, just say so. How
about the nation’s policies to reduce or control crime?”
N
Very satisfied
Somewhat satisfied
Somewhat dissatisfied
Very dissatisfied
No opinion
N
1/02
%
1/03
%
1/04
%
1/05
%
1/06
%
6
39
32
20
3
10
44
30
13
3
8
43
28
18
3
10
43
28
16
3
11
46
23
16
4
8
40
29
18
5
1,004
1,015
1,000
1,004
1,005
1,003
1/07
%
1/08
%
1/12
%
1/13
%
9
38
31
18
4
7
41
30
18
4
7
43
25
20
6
8
33
30
24
5
1,018
1,023
1,011
1,011
police. In 1998, 26 percent of respondents had “a great deal” of confidence in
their local police. This figure dropped to 18 percent by 2000 before it climbed
back to 34 percent by 2001 following the terrorist attacks on 9/11 (see also Shaw
and Brannan [2009]). Confidence in the police remained largely stable from
2002 to 2012, suggesting that changing views toward the police are not tightly
connected to the public’s changing attitudes toward punishment of criminals.
Conclusion
A majority of Americans support punitive criminal justice policies. However,
Americans today are less supportive of punitive policies than they were in the
midst of the “law and order” era between 1970 and 1994. This decline in support for punitive policies is consistent across specific punitive policies (e.g.,
death penalty, sentencing, spending) and across various subgroups (see also
Ramirez [2013]). This is a substantial change from the past, when punitive
policies appeared to be the dominant approach to crime.
These data also show a decreased perception of national crime since the mid1990s. Perceptions of crime, however, do not follow the same pattern as support
Downloaded from http://poq.oxfordjournals.org/ at Jordan University of Science and Technology on July 26, 2016
Very satisfied
Somewhat satisfied
Somewhat dissatisfied
Very dissatisfied
No opinion
1/01
%
Poll Trends—Views on Crime and Punishment
1023
Table 20. Confidence in the Police. GALLUP: “I am going to read you a
list of institutions in American society. Please tell me how much confidence
you, yourself, have in each one—a great deal, quite a lot, some, or very
little?...The police?”
6/99
%
6/00
%
5/01
%
6/02
%
6/03
%
5/04
%
5/05
%
26
32
30
10
1
24
33
33
10
0
18
36
33
10
2
34
25
25
13
3
28
31
31
9
1
29
32
29
9
2
24
40
26
10
0
28
35
29
7
1
1,003
1,016
1,021
1,010
1,020
1,029
1,002
1,004
6/06
%
6/07
%
6/08
%
6/09
%
6/10
%
6/11
%
6/12
%
25
33
29
10
2
23
31
33
12
1
28
30
30
10
1
28
31
29
10
1
26
33
27
12
1
25
31
30
11
2
26
30
28
15
1
1,002
1,007
822
1,011
1,020
1,020
1,004
Great deal
Quite a lot
Some
Very little
None
N
Great deal
Quite a lot
Some
Very little
None
N
for specific punitive policies. Thus, perceptions of crime cannot be uniquely
responsible for the shifts in punitiveness. Instead, support for punitive policies
has increased after instances of terrorism rather than periods of high crime.
Appendices
Abbreviations
CBS: Columbia Broadcasting Network;
Gallup: Gallup Organization;
GSS: National Opinion Research Center, General Social Survey;
GWU-Battleground, George Washington University Battleground Poll;
HART: Hart and Teeter Research Companies;
NBC: National Broadcasting Company;
NYT: New York Times;
PEW: Pew Research Center;
Roper: Roper Organization;
WSJ: Wall Street Journal
The survey results reported here were obtained from searches of the iPOLL
Databank and other resources provided by the Roper Center for Public
Downloaded from http://poq.oxfordjournals.org/ at Jordan University of Science and Technology on July 26, 2016
6/98
%
1024
Ramirez
CBS and CBS/NYT: 8/2001, 15.6%; 4/2005, 17.11%; 7/2005, 13.95%
(AAPOR RR1; response rates for surveys prior to 2001 were unavailable)
GSS: 1994, 77.8%; 1996, 76.1%; 1998, 75.6%; 2000, 70.0%; 2002, 70.1%;
2004, 70.4%; 2006, 71.2%; 2008, 70.4%; 2010, 70.3%; 2012, 71.4%
(AAPOR RR3)
PEW: 9/2006, 27%; 10/2006, 26% (AAPOR RR5; response rates were unavailable for surveys prior to 2006)
Response rates were requested from but not provided by Peter Hart Research
(including Hart and Teeter Research Companies), Gallup Organization, and
the National Broadcasting Company/Wall Street Journal.
disaggregation of GSS data
This appendix contains tables that disaggregate the General Social Survey
(GSS) data on public support toward judicial sentencing, the death penalty, and
spending on crime. Unfortunately, the data file necessary to perform a subgroup
analysis is not available from the Roper Center, iPoll, or the survey organization for many of the survey marginals listed in the manuscript. The GSS, however, does provide a data file that allowed the disaggregation of poll questions
by various subgroups. This analysis examined gender, race, age, and partisan
affiliation, since past research highlights important differences in punitive attitudes across these constituencies. The subgroup survey marginals are shown in
table A1 for spending to halt crime, table A2 for support for the death penalty,
and table A3 for support for tougher judicial sentencing. Consistent with past
research on the over-time movement in policy opinions of various subgroups
(i.e., Page and Shapiro 1992), these data show that the decline in support for
punitive policies was consistent across men, women, blacks, whites, the young,
the old, Republicans, and Democrats. Thus, the aggregate marginals in the text
are largely consistent with the subgroup analysis.
Appendix table notes: REP indicates a strong or moderate affiliation with
the Republican Party. DEM indicates a strong or moderate affiliation with the
Democratic Party. Independents and independents that lean toward a party
were excluded from these tables. 18–29 indicates respondents between the
ages of 18 and 29; 65+ indicates respondents 65 years of age or greater. These
data are derived from the GSS Cumulative Data file (citation in text).
Downloaded from http://poq.oxfordjournals.org/ at Jordan University of Science and Technology on July 26, 2016
Opinion Research, University of Connecticut. Unless otherwise noted in the
table notes, all Gallup surveys between 1994 and 2007 involved national adult
samples and were conducted via telephone with households selected by random-digit-dialing. All Gallup surveys from 2008 onward involved national
adult samples and were conducted via landline and cell phone selected by
random-digit-dialing. Unless otherwise noted in the table notes, all General
Social Surveys involved national adult samples and were conducted by faceto-face interviews. Response rates are as follows (when available):
Men
3/94
%
Men
3/96
%
Men
3/98
%
Men
3/00
%
Men
3/02
%
Women
3/94
%
Women
3/96
%
Women
3/98
%
Women
3/00
%
Women
3/02
%
Too little
About right
Too much
74
19
7
65
26
8
58
32
10
56
37
7
51
39
10
80
14
6
73
22
6
67
28
5
65
31
4
62
33
5
N
646
620
572
604
589
819
772
758
753
732
White
3/94
%
White
3/96
%
White
3/98
%
White
3/00
%
White
3/02
%
Black
3/94
%
Black
3/96
%
Black
3/98
%
Black
3/00
%
Black
3/02
%
76
17
7
67
25
8
61
31
8
59
25
6
55
37
7
83
14
3
82
14
4
78
17
5
74
22
4
69
27
4
1,215
1,111
1,054
1,080
1,058
190
201
177
199
186
N
Continued
1025
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Too little
About right
Too much
Poll Trends—Views on Crime and Punishment
Table A1. Spending to Halt Crime across Groups. GSS: “We are faced with many problems in this country, none of which can
be solved easily or inexpensively. I’m going to name some of these problems, and for each oneI’d like you to tell me whether you
think we’re spending too much money on it, too little money, or about the right amount.…Halting the rising crime rate?”
1026
Table A1. Continued
18–29
3/94
%
18–29
3/96
%
18–29
3/98
%
18–29
3/00
%
18–29
3/02
%
65+
3/94
%
65+
3/96
%
65+
3/98
%
65+
3/00
%
65+
3/02
%
Too little
About right
Too much
86
11
3
72
24
4
64
32
4
61
36
3
50
45
5
78
12
10
70
23
6
63
30
7
62
33
5
57
36
7
N
229
248
236
223
239
239
1,180
1,106
1,126
1,096
REP
3/94
%
REP
3/96
%
REP
3/98
%
REP
3/00
%
REP
3/02
%
DEM
3/94
%
DEM
3/96
%
DEM
3/98
%
DEM
3/00
%
DEM
3/02
%
Too little
About right
Too much
72
19
9
65
25
10
57
35
8
60
32
7
52
40
8
80
15
5
71
25
4
71
23
7
63
32
5
62
32
6
N
424
396
349
324
366
538
455
431
440
444
Ramirez
Downloaded from http://poq.oxfordjournals.org/ at Jordan University of Science and Technology on July 26, 2016
N
Favor
Oppose
N
Men
3/96
%
Men
3/98
%
Men
3/00
%
Men
3/02
%
Women
3/94
%
Women
3/96
%
Women
3/98
%
Women
3/00
%
Women
3/02
%
82
17
82
18
79
21
75
25
75
25
76
23
72
28
69
31
63
37
63
37
1,229
1,223
1,154
1,149
631
1,556
1,457
1,445
1,416
677
White
3/94
%
White
3/96
%
White
3/98
%
White
3/00
%
White
3/02
%
Black
3/94
%
Black
3/96
%
Black
3/98
%
Black
3/00
%
Black
3/02
%
83
17
80
20
78
22
74
26
73
27
57
43
58
42
50
50
42
58
45
55
2,338
2,189
2,065
2,025
1,051
346
351
359
381
183
Continued
1027
Downloaded from http://poq.oxfordjournals.org/ at Jordan University of Science and Technology on July 26, 2016
Favor
Oppose
Men
3/94
%
Poll Trends—Views on Crime and Punishment
Table A2. death Penalty Support across Groups. GSS: “Do you favor or oppose the death penalty for persons convicted of
murder?”
1028
Table A2. Continued
18–29
3/94
%
18–29
3/96
%
18–29
3/98
%
18–29
3/00
%
18–29
3/02
%
65+
3/94
%
65+
3/96
%
65+
3/98
%
65+
3/00
%
65+
3/02
%
77
23
77
23
71
29
68
32
67
33
82
18
77
23
74
26
69
31
69
31
436
497
454
439
245
456
2,279
2,167
2,139
1,067
REP
3/94
%
REP
3/96
%
REP
3/98
%
REP
3/00
%
REP
3/02
%
DEM
3/94
%
DEM
3/96
%
DEM
3/98
%
DEM
3/00
%
DEM
3/02
%
Favor
Oppose
87
13
88
12
82
18
80
20
82
18
70
30
67
33
67
33
63
37
58
42
N
803
773
677
634
345
988
891
893
829
449
N
Ramirez
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Favor
Oppose
N
Not harsh
About right
Too harsh
N
Men
3/96
%
Men
3/98
%
Men
3/00
%
Men
3/02
%
Women
3/94
%
Women
3/96
%
Women
3/98
%
Women
3/00
%
Women
3/02
%
87
10
3
82
12
6
76
16
8
72
19
9
67
20
12
91
7
2
84
11
4
82
12
6
77
15
7
75
17
7
1,219
1,203
1,115
1,137
620
1,619
1,488
1,487
1,421
665
White
3/94
%
White
3/96
%
White
3/98
%
White
3/00
%
White
3/02
%
Black
3/94
%
Black
3/96
%
Black
3/98
%
Black
3/00
%
Black
3/02
%
90
8
2
85
12
3
80
14
5
76
18
6
73
19
8
85
9
6
78
10
13
74
10
15
69
14
17
66
16
17
2,360
2,182
2,075
2,007
1,033
364
369
389
398
182
Continued
1029
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Not harsh
About right
Too harsh
Men
3/94
%
Poll Trends—Views on Crime and Punishment
Table A3. Judicial Sentencing across Groups. GSS: “In general, do you think that the courts in this area deal too harshly or not
harshly enough with criminals?”
1030
Table A3. Continued
18–29
3/94
%
18–29
3/96
%
18–29
3/98
%
18–29
3/00
%
18–29
3/02
%
65+
3/94
%
65+
3/96
%
65+
3/98
%
65+
3/00
%
65+
3/02
%
Not harsh
About right
Too harsh
85
10
5
83
10
7
77
12
11
72
16
12
69
18
13
92
7
1
83
11
5
80
13
7
75
16
9
72
18
10
N
429
485
439
414
235
474
2,283
2,195
2,121
1,047
REP
3/94
%
REP
3/96
%
REP
3/98
%
REP
3/00
%
REP
3/02
%
DEM
3/94
%
DEM
3/96
%
DEM
3/98
%
DEM
3/00
%
DEM
3/02
%
Not harsh
About right
Too harsh
91
7
2
86
10
4
85
12
3
83
13
4
79
19
2
89
8
3
80
14
6
79
14
7
71
19
10
69
19
12
N
809
783
686
635
348
1,018
907
910
848
434
Ramirez
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Poll Trends—Views on Crime and Punishment
1031
references
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Aladjem, Terry K. 2008. The Culture of Vengeance and the Fate of American Justice. New York:
Cambridge University Press.
Beckett, Katherine. 1997. Making Crime Pay. New York: Oxford University Press.
Edsall, Thomas Byrne, and Mary D. Edsall. 1992. Chain Reaction. New York: W. W. Norton.
Erskine, Hazel. 1970. “The Polls: Capital Punishment.” Public Opinion Quarterly 34:290–307.
———. 1974. “The Polls: Politics and Law and Order.” Public Opinion Quarterly 38:623–34.
Forst, Brian. 2009. Terrorism, Crime, and Public Policy. New York: Cambridge University Press.
Forst, Brian, Jack R. Green, and James P. Lynch. 2011. Criminologists on Terrorism and
Homeland Security. New York: Cambridge University Press.
Glaze, Lauren E., and Erika Parks. 2012. “Correctional Populations in the United States.” Bureau
of Justice Statistics. Office of Justice Programs. U.S. Department of Justice, NCJ239672.
Gottschalk, Marie. 2006. The Prison and the Gallows: The Politics of Mass Incarceration in
America. New York: Cambridge University Press.
Marion, Nancy E., Colleen M. Smith, and Willard M. Oliver. 2009. “Gubernatorial Crime Control
Rhetoric: A Study in Symbolic Politics.” Criminal Justice Policy Review 20:457–74.
Posner, Richard A. 2008. How Judges Think. Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press.
Ramirez, Mark D. 2013. “Punitive Sentiment.” Criminology 51:329–64.
Shaw, Greg M., and Kathryn E. Brannan. 2009. “The Polls—Trends: Confidence in Law
Enforcement.” Public Opinion Quarterly 73:199–220.
Shaw, Greg M., Robert Y. Shapiro, Shmuel Lock, and Lawrence R. Jacobs. 1998. “The Polls—
Trends: Crime, the Police, and Civil Liberties.” Public Opinion Quarterly 62:405–26.
Smith, Tom W., Peter Marsden, Michael Hout, and Jibum Kim. 2013. General Social Survey,
1972–2012 [machine-readable data file]. Chicago: National Opinion Research Center [producer]. Storrs, CT: Roper Center for Public Opinion Research, University of Connecticut
[distributor].
Steiker, Jordan M. 2013. “The American Death Penalty: Constitutional Regulation as the
Distinctive Feature of American Exceptionalism.” University of Miami Law Review 67:329–56.
Tonry, Michael. 1995. Malign Neglect—Race, Crime, and Punishment in America. New York:
Oxford University Press.
Tyler, Tom R., and Robert J. Boeckmann. 1997. “Three Strikes and You Are Out, But Why? The
Psychology of Public Support for Punishing Rule Breakers.” Law & Society Review 31:237–65.
Warr, Mark. 1995. “The Polls—Trends: Public Opinion on Crime and Punishment.” Public
Opinion Quarterly 59:296–310.
THE PollS—TrEndS
AMERICANS’ CHANGING VIEWS ON CRIME AND
PUNISHMENT
MARK D. RAMIREZ*
After 50 years of punitive approaches to dealing with crime, the correctional
population (i.e., individuals experiencing incarceration, parole, probation)
within the United States is higher than in any other country. An estimated
seven million Americans (one in every 34 adults) are under some form of correctional supervision (Glaze and Parks 2012). State and federal governments
continue to devote substantial resources to fighting crime despite declines in
revenue. This has led some scholars to conclude that the expansion of the
criminal justice system is as significant as other postwar developments, such
as the welfare state, the civil rights movement, and the Cold War (Edsall and
Edsall 1992; Tonry 1995; Gottschalk 2006).
Mark D. Ramirez is an assistant professor in the School of Politics and Global Studies, Arizona
State University, Tempe, AZ, USA. The author thanks James E. Monogan and an anonymous
reviewer for their helpful comments and assistance. Thanks also go to Sarah Dutton at CBS,
Sheldon Gawiser at NBC, Scott Keeter at the Pew Research Center, and Maura Strausberg at
Gallup for assistance with documentation. *Address correspondence to Mark D. Ramirez,
Arizona State University, School of Politics & Global Studies, 6th Floor, Coor Hall, P.O. Box
873902, Tempe, AZ 85287-3902, USA; e-mail: mark.ramirez@asu.edu.
doi:10.1093/poq/nft040
Advance Access publication December 10, 2013
© The Author 2013. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the American Association for Public Opinion
Research. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com
Downloaded from http://poq.oxfordjournals.org/ at Jordan University of Science and Technology on July 26, 2016
Abstract Despite a decline in crime rates, the size of America’s criminal justice system has continued to expand in both expenditures and
the number of citizens under correctional supervision. Polls examined
here show that the public viewed national crime as declining since the
1990s, while viewing local crime rates as stable. Moreover, the polls
show that public support for “get tough” crime policies, once seen as
unwavering, has declined substantially. The decline in support occurred
across a range of policies, from judicial sentencing to the death penalty
to increasing expenditures for law enforcement agencies. Finally, polls
show fluctuations in public views regarding which political party was
better suited to deal with crime. Overall, these data illustrate that leaders
now have the opportunity to move policy in a less punitive direction and
that no single party has ownership over the issue.
Poll Trends—Views on Crime and Punishment
1007
Perceptions of Crime
The public perceived a decline in national crime after the mid-1990s, but
there is mixed evidence regarding the longevity of this change. Table 1 shows
that 71 percent of respondents believed there was more crime in 1996 than
in the previous year. This figure declined to 41 percent by 2001. From 2001
to 2002, there was a 21-percentage-point increase in the perception that there
was more crime across the nation, possibly spillover from the terrorist attacks
on September 11, 2001. An increased perception of national crime continued
from 2004 to 2011. Table 2, however, shows that 73 percent of respondents
in 1994 perceived that national crime had “gotten worse,” but by 2012 this
percentage dropped by 28 percentage points. Respondents seem more willing
to report that crime had “stayed the same” in this latter poll. Finally, table 3
shows a 15-percentage-point decline in how much respondents “worry” about
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Past issues of Public Opinion Quarterly have examined trends in public
support for capital punishment (Erskine 1970), criminal sentencing (Erskine
1974; Warr 1995), and criminal justice institutions (Shaw et al. 1998). These
articles showed an increase in public support for various punitive policies
between the 1970s and mid-1990s—an increase concurrent with actual and
perceived changes in crime (Beckett 1997). Yet crime has declined significantly since the mid-1990s. According to the FBI’s Uniform Crime Report,
violent crime declined from 1,857,670 reported instances in 1994 to 1,203,564
reported instances in 2011 (a decrease of approximately 35 percent). Similarly,
property crimes declined from 12,131,873 reported instances in 1994 to
9,063,173 reported instances in 2011 (a decrease of approximately 25 percent). Subsequently, “law and order” campaigns, prominent between 1964 and
1994, have subsided, and new issues such as global warming and immigration
have moved to the forefront (Marion, Smith, and Oliver 2009).
An examination of polls between 1994 and 2013 shows changing public perceptions of national crime consistent with changes in the crime rate. The polls
also show a decline in support for a variety of punitive policies (e.g., judicial
sentencing, capital punishment, spending on law enforcement). However, support for nonpunitive policies has remained stable, suggesting that the public
is not ready to do away with punitive solutions to crime. The polls also show
fluctuations in what party the public felt is best suited to deal with crime, but
stability in support for law enforcement authorities.
Moreover, terrorism appears to have become entangled with criminal justice
opinions and policy (Forst 2009). Public officials have linked the war on terror to organized crime, drug trafficking, and street violence (Forst, Green, and
Lynch 2011). The violent nature of both crime and terrorism can instill fear in
the public, leading to a greater need for security. Subsequently, the polls show
increases in support for punitive policies coinciding with terrorist activities,
even though these are distinct phenomena.
1008
Ramirez
Table 1. Perception of Crime in United States. GALLUP: “Is there more
crime in the U.S. (United States) than there was a year ago, or less?”
8/97
%
10/98
%
8/00
%
10/01
%
10/02
%
10/03
%
10/04
%
71
15
8
6
64
25
6
5
56
35
4
5
47
41
7
5
41
43
10
6
62
21
11
6
60
25
11
4
53
28
14
5
1,008
1,014
1,013
1,012
1,011
1,002
1,017
1,012
More
Less
Same
No opinion
N
10/05
%
10/06
%
10/07
%
10/08
%
10/09
%
10/10
%
10/11
%
67
21
9
3
68
16
8
8
71
14
8
6
67
15
9
9
74
15
6
5
66
17
8
9
68
17
8
8
1,012
1,001
1,010
1,011
1,013
1,025
1,005
More
Less
Same
No opinion
N
Table 2. Perception of national Crime. CBS/NEW YORK TIMES: “In
the last year, do you think crime in the country has increased, decreased, or
stayed about the same?”
Increased
Decreased
Stayed the same
Don’t know
N
1/94
%
1/96
%
5/96
%
7/12
%
73
3
23
1
51
12
34
3
51
14
31
4
45
7
43
5
1,146
1,076
1,200
1,089
Samples are based on telephone interviews of adults in the United States. The 2012 sample is
based on landline and cell-phone interviews of adults in the United States.
crime between 2001 and 2013. Public fear of crime reached its nadir in 2012,
when only 42 percent of the respondents said they worry “a great deal” about
“crime and violence.”
Table 4 also shows a small change in respondents’ perceived fear to walk
alone at night. The 1996 poll shows that 39 percent of respondents feared
walking “alone at night.” This figure declined by 9 percentage points by 2001,
with small year-to-year changes thereafter. According to table 5, the percentage of respondents who viewed an increase in neighborhood crime dropped
between 1996 and 2001, from 46 percent to 26 percent. However, this percentage went back up to 48 percent by 2011.
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6/96
%
Poll Trends—Views on Crime and Punishment
1009
Table 3. Worry about Crime and Violence in the nation. GALLUP: “I’m
going to read a list of problems facing the country. For each one, please tell
me if you personally worry about this problem a great deal, a fair amount,
only a little, or not at all. How much do you personally worry about crime
and violence?”
N
A great deal
A fair
amount
Only a little
Not at all
No opinion
N
3/02
%
3/03
%
3/04
%
3/05
%
3/06
%
3/07
%
3/08
%
3/10
%
62
26
9
3
0
49
27
20
4
0
45
31
18
5
1
46
26
24
4
0
46
25
26
3
0
49
36
15
4
0
48
32
16
4
0
49
31
16
3
0
43
30
21
6
0
1,060
1,006
1,008
1,005
1,004
1,000
1,009
3/11
%
3/12
%
3/13
%
44
42
47
30
19
6
0
31
21
5
0
28
20
5
0
1,021
1,012 1,014
1,024 1,022
Table 4. Fear of Crime in neighborhood. GALLUP: “Is there any area
near where you live—that is, within a mile—where you would be afraid to
walk alone at night?”
Yes
No
Don’t know
N
Yes
No
Don’t know
N
6/96
%
8/97
%
8/00
%
10/01
%
10/02
%
10/03
%
10/04
%
39
60
1
39
61
1
34
66
0
30
69
1
35
64
1
36
64
0
32
67
0
1,008
1,104
1,002
1,011
1,002
1,017
1,012
10/05
%
10/06
%
10/07
%
10/08
%
10/09
%
10/10
%
10/11
%
38
62
0
37
63
0
37
62
0
37
63
0
34
66
0
37
63
0
38
61
0
1,012
1,001
1,010
1,011
1,013
1,025
1,005
Finally, table 6 shows stability in public concern about drug use. The percentage of respondents who worried “a great deal” about drug use in 2001 was 58
Downloaded from http://poq.oxfordjournals.org/ at Jordan University of Science and Technology on July 26, 2016
A great deal
A fair amount
Only a little
Not at all
No opinion
3/01
%
1010
Ramirez
Table 5. Perception of Crime in neighborhood. GALLUP: “Is there more
crime in your area than there was a year ago, or less?”
N
More
Less
Same
Don’t know
N
8/97
%
10/98
%
8/00
%
10/01
%
10/02
%
10/03
%
10/04
%
46
24
25
6
47
32
20
2
31
48
16
5
34
46
15
5
26
52
18
4
37
34
24
5
40
39
19
2
37
37
22
4
1,008
1,014
1,013
1,012
1,011
1,002
1,017
1,012
10/05
%
10/06
%
10/07
%
10/08
%
10/09
%
10/10
%
10/11
%
47
33
18
2
51
30
15
4
51
29
17
4
44
31
19
5
51
29
16
4
49
30
16
5
48
29
18
5
1,012
1,011
1,010
1,011
1,013
1,025
1,005
Table 6. Concern for drug Use. GALLUP: “How much do you worry
about drug use?”
A great deal
A fair amount
Only a little
Not at all
No opinion
N
A great deal
A fair
amount
Only a little
Not at all
No opinion
N
3/01
%
3/02
%
3/03
%
3/04
%
3/05
%
3/06
%
3/07
%
3/08
%
58
22
13
7
0
49
22
19
9
1
42
26
20
12
0
46
19
20
14
1
42
23
24
11
0
48
25
18
9
0
45
26
20
8
0
43
24
24
9
0
1,060
1,006
1,008
1,005
1,004
1,000
1,009
1,012
3/10
%
3/11
%
3/12
%
37
40
42
27
22
13
1
24
21
14
1
24
21
13
0
1,014
1,021
1,024
percent. This figure dropped to 49 percent by 2002, and to 42 percent by 2012.
Overall, perceptions of crime declined during the late 1990s, increased slightly
after 2001, and remained somewhat stable for the remainder of the decade.
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More
Less
Same
Don’t know
7/96
%
Poll Trends—Views on Crime and Punishment
1011
Judicial Sentencing
Table 7. Judicial Sentencing. GSS: “In general, do you think that the courts
in this area deal too harshly or not harshly enough with criminals?”
Not harshly
enough
About right
Too harshly
No opinion
N
Not harshly
enough
About right
Too harshly
No opinion
N
3/94
%
3/96
%
3/98
%
3/00
%
3/02
%
3/04
%
3/06
%
3/08
%
85
8
3
5
78
11
5
4
74
13
6
2
68
16
7
2
67
18
9
2
65
20
9
2
65
21
9
2
62
21
12
5
2,992
2,904
2,832
2,817
2,765
1,002
1,017
1,012
3/10
%
3/12
%
62
18
13
8
62
22
15
1
2,043
1,789
1. These data were disaggregated by the author using the General Social Survey Cumulative File:
Smith et al., General Social Survey, 1972–2012 [machine-readable data file]; Chicago: National
Opinion Research Center [producer]; Storrs, CT: Roper Center for Public Opinion Research,
University of Connecticut [distributor], 2013. Partisans are respondents with either a strong or
moderate affiliation with a particular political party. Independents or party leaners are excluded
from the percentages reported here. However, support for punitive policies also declined among
these groups.
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It is widely believed that public support for tougher judicial sentencing is a
permanent fixture of American politics (e.g., Aladjem 2008). In the 1990s, a
majority of Americans supported “get tough” sentencing policies such as mandatory minimums and “three strike” laws (Tyler and Boeckmann 1997). Yet,
as table 7 shows, the public’s support for tougher sentencing declined from 85
percent in 1994 to 62 percent by 2012. A seven-percentage-point drop occurred
between 1994 and 1996, while a 12-percentage-point drop occurred between
1996 and 2002. Disaggregating the General Social Survey (GSS) data between
1996 and 2000 (the period of greatest change) by subgroup shows that support
declined among men (20 percentage points), women (16 percentage points),
blacks (19 percentage points), whites (17 percentage points), Republicans (12
percentage points), Democrats (20 percentage points), respondents between
18 and 29 years of age (16 percentage points), and respondents over the age of
65 (20 percentage points).1
The decline in support for tougher sentencing could be a reaction to the
growing number of conservative judges on both federal and state courts
1012
Ramirez
(Posner 2008) or to an increase in federally mandated sentences. It is possible
that as the courts became more punitive, the public began to temper its demand
for tougher sentencing.
Capital Punishment
Table 8. death Penalty Support. GALLUP: “Are you in favor of the death
penalty for a person convicted of murder?”
Favor
Oppose
Don’t know
N
Favor
Oppose
Don’t know
N
Favor
Oppose
Don’t know
N
Favor
Oppose
Don’t know
N
9/94
%
5/95
%
2/99
%
2/00
%
6/00
%
8/00
%
2/01
%
80
16
4
77
13
2
71
22
7
66
28
6
66
26
8
67
28
5
67
25
8
1,022
1,000
1,054
1, 050
1,020
1,012
1,016
5/01
%
10/01
%
5/02
%
10/02
%
5/03
%
5/03
%
10/03
%
65
27
8
68
26
6
72
25
3
70
25
5
70
28
2
74
24
2
64
32
4
1,012
1,011
1,012
1,002
1,014
1,005
1,017
5/04
%
10/04
%
10/05
%
5/06
%
6/07
%
10/08
%
10/09
%
71
26
3
64
31
5
64
30
6
65
28
7
65
31
3
64
30
5
65
31
5
1,000
1,012
1,012
1,013
2,388
1,011
1,013
10/10
%
10/11
%
12/12
%
64
24
6
61
35
4
63
32
6
1,025
1,005
1,038
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Support for capital punishment often hinges on the question format. The
seemingly solid support for capital punishment shown in polls that constrain
respondents to either favor or oppose the policy can significantly erode when
respondents are provided with sentencing alternatives such as life without
parole. The Gallup question that constrains respondents to either favor or
oppose the death penalty for murder shows a substantial decline in public support since its peak in 1994 (Warr 1995). Responses to the Gallup question,
shown in table 8, reveal that the percentage of Americans favoring the death
Poll Trends—Views on Crime and Punishment
1013
Table 9. death Penalty opposition. GSS: “Do you favor or oppose the
death penalty for persons convicted of murder?”
Favor
Oppose
Don’t know
N
Favor
Oppose
Don’t know
N
3/94
%
3/96
%
3/98
%
3/00
%
3/02
%
3/04
%
3/06
%
3/08
%
74
20
6
71
22
7
68
25
8
63
29
8
66
30
4
65
30
5
65
29
5
64
31
5
2,992
2,904
2,832
2,817
2,765
2,812
4,510
2,023
3/10
%
3/12
%
65
31
5
65
34
1
2043
1,831
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penalty declined from 80 percent in 1994 to 65 percent by May 2001. Support
for the death penalty increased to 68 percent by October 2001, shortly after
the attacks on 9/11. Support, however, declined 10 percentage points between
2004 and 2011, suggesting that any influence of the terrorist attacks on death
penalty support was short lived.
The GSS also uses the favor-or-oppose format and shows a similar decline
in support for the death penalty. As shown in table 9, 74 percent of GSS
respondents favored the death penalty in 1994, which declined to 63 percent
by 2000. Support increased to 66 percent by March 2002, six months after
the terrorist attacks on 9/11, and stabilized at about 65 percent between 2004
and 2012. Disaggregating the change in public support between 1994 and
2002 by subgroup shows that the largest decline in support occurred among
women (13 percentage points), blacks (12 percentage points), and respondents above 65 years of age (13 percentage points). The smallest decline in
support occurred among Republicans (five percentage points) and men (seven
percentage points).
Table 10 shows a decline in the percentage of Americans saying the death
penalty is not implemented enough. In 1994, 64 percent of Americans believed
the death penalty should be implemented more. This declined to 38 percent
prior to 9/11. After 9/11, 47 percent of Americans believed the death penalty
should be used more often. This declined to 40 percent by 2011. The decline in
support for the death penalty follows a rise in litigation challenging the use of
lethal injection as a means of execution (Steiker 2013). It also occurs alongside
a decline in support among policymakers as legislative repeals of the death
penalty have occurred in New Jersey, New Mexico, Illinois, Connecticut, and
1014
Ramirez
Table 10. Implementation of the death Penalty. GALLUP: “In your
opinion, is the death penalty imposed—too often, about the right amount, or
not often enough?”
N
Not enough
About right
Too often
Don’t know
N
2/00
%
5/01
%
5/02
%
5/03
%
5/04
%
64
4
25
7
60
5
26
9
38
34
21
7
47
24
22
7
48
26
23
3
48
25
23
4
1,054
1,050
1,012
1,012
1,005
1,005
5/05
%
5/06
%
10/07
%
10/08
%
10/09
%
10/10
%
53
24
20
3
51
25
21
3
49
26
21
4
48
23
21
8
49
24
20
7
49
26
18
7
1,005
1,002
1,010
1,011
1,013
1,025
10/11
%
Not enough
About right
Too often
Don’t know
N
40
27
25
8
1,005
Maryland, while state courts in New York, Nebraska, and Kansas have ruled
its use unconstitutional.
Sentencing Choices
Declining support for the death penalty is also visible when the public
is given a choice between sentencing criminals convicted of homicide to
death or life imprisonment with no chance of parole. Table 11 shows that
from 1985 to 1999, a majority of Americans preferred the death penalty.
There is a 9-percentage-point increase in support for the death penalty
by October 1993, six months after the siege in Waco, Texas, and the same
month Congress introduced the Violent Crime Control and Law Enforcement
Act (VCCLEA). Support for the death penalty increased 11 percentage
points between 1994 and 1997, which coincides with the sentencing of the
Downloaded from http://poq.oxfordjournals.org/ at Jordan University of Science and Technology on July 26, 2016
Not enough
About right
Too often
Don’t know
2/99
%
Poll Trends—Views on Crime and Punishment
1015
Table 11. death Penalty or Prison with no Parole. GALLUP: “What do
you think should be the penalty for murder—death or life imprisonment with
absolutely no possibility for parole?”
1/85
%
N
56
34
4
6
55
35
0
10
53
35
3
9
50
37
1
2
59
29
1
1
50
32
3
4
61
29
4
6
54
36
5
5
2/99 2/00a
%
%
56
38
0
6
45
42
0
9
1,523 1,570 990 1,222 1,244 656 819 1,004 1,054 1,050
a
”What do you think should be the penalty for murder—the death penalty, or life imprisonment
with absolutely no possibility of parole?”
Unabomber Ted Kaczynski. Support for life imprisonment was stable from
1985 to 1999 but nearly reached parity with support for the death penalty at
42 percent by 2000.
Table 12 shows responses to the same question with the addition of a question preface.2 Support for the death penalty increased to 54 percent by 2001
and remained stable for the next three years. Support for life imprisonment
also remained stable around 43 percent during this period. In the 2011 poll,
Americans were split between the death penalty (48 percent) and life imprisonment (50 percent). If we assume the changes in the question preface had little effect on respondents’ opinions, then support for life imprisonment relative
to the death penalty increased between 1985 and 2011.
Alternatives to Punishment
A series of Gallup polls, shown in table 13, reveal that a majority of Americans
from 1989 to 2004 favored attacking the social problems that lead to crime
rather than expanding the scope of law enforcement. In 1989, 61 percent
favored attacking social problems, a figure that increased to 67 percent by
1992. This figure declined to 57 percent in 2004. Support for increasing prisons, police, and judges decreased from 32 percent in 1994 to 27 percent by
2000—consistent with the overall decline in punitiveness during this period.
This figure increased to 39 percent by 2004.
Table 14 shows that drug rehabilitation programs were also popular among
a large number of Americans. From 1994 to 2010, a majority supported drug
2. The preface to the question in Table 11 asks, “[W]hat do you think should be the penalty for
murder” while the question in Table 12 asks, “[I]f you could choose between the following two
approaches, which do you think is the better penalty for murder.” A cross-comparison of the data
in 2000 shows similar responses across the variation in question wording.
Downloaded from http://poq.oxfordjournals.org/ at Jordan University of Science and Technology on July 26, 2016
Death penalty
Life imprisonment
Neither
No opinion
1/86 6/91 3/92 10/93 6/94 8/97 1/98
%
%
%
%
%
%
%
1016
Ramirez
Table 12. death Penalty or Prison with no Parole. GALLUP: “If you
could choose between the following two approaches, which do you think is
the better penalty for murder—the death penalty, or life imprisonment with
absolutely no possibility of parole?”
N
2/01
%
5/01
%
5/02
%
5/03
%
5/04
%
5/05
%
49
47
4
54
42
4
52
43
5
52
43
5
53
44
3
50
46
4
56
39
5
5/06a 5/09b
%
%
47
48
5
53
46
2
1,012 1,016 1,012 1,012 1,005 1,000 1,005 1,013 1,010
10/10 9/11b
%
%
Death penalty
Life imprisonment
No opinion
N
49
46
6
48
50
2
1,025 1,010
a
Survey conducted by Gallup for USA Today.
Survey conducted by Opinion Research Corporation for the Cable News Network.
b
Table 13. Support for Alternatives to Punishment. GALLUP: “To lower
the crime rate in the U.S., some people think additional money and effort
should go to attacking the social and economic problems that lead to crime
through better education and job training. Others feel more money and effort
should go to deterring crime by improving law enforcement with more
prisons, police, and judges. Which comes closer to your view?”
Attack social problems
Improve law enforcement
No opinion
N
6/89
%
9/90
%
8/92a
%
8/94
%
9/00a
%
2/04
%
61
32
7
57
36
2
67
25
1
51
42
7
63
27
5
57
39
4
1,235
1,031
1,387
1,011
1,012
1,015
a
“Which of the following two approaches do you think would do more to reduce crime …
attacking the social and economic problems that lead to crime, through better education and job
training, or deterring crime by improving law enforcement with more prisons, police, and judges?”
rehabilitation programs, which is often an alternative to prisons for drug
offenders. The best description of public support for such programs over time
is stability. Fifty-two percent of respondents said the country is spending “too
little” on drug rehabilitation in 1994. This figure remained essentially stable
until 2008, when it dropped to 46 percent. Table 15 shows similar support for
Downloaded from http://poq.oxfordjournals.org/ at Jordan University of Science and Technology on July 26, 2016
Death penalty
Life imprisonment
No opinion
8/00
%
Poll Trends—Views on Crime and Punishment
1017
Table 14. Support for drug rehabilitation. GSS: “Are we spending too
much, too little, or about the right amount on drug rehabilitation?”
N
To little
About right
Too much
No opinion
N
3/98
%
3/00
%
3/02
%
3/04
%
3/06
%
4/08
%
52
30
11
6
53
29
11
7
52
30
10
8
51
30
13
6
49
34
11
6
51
31
11
7
46
35
12
7
2,992
2,832
2,817
2,765
2,812
4,510
2,023
3/10
%
3/12
%
48
33
12
7
45
36
17
2
2,043
1,789
Table 15. Support for drug Addiction. GSS: “Are we spending too much,
too little, or about the right amount on drug addiction?”
Too little
About right
Too much
No opinion
N
To little
About right
Too much
No opinion
N
3/94
%
3/96
%
3/98
%
3/00
%
3/02
%
3/04
%
4/06
%
60
26
9
5
58
27
11
4
58
28
9
4
59
28
8
5
57
30
9
3
53
34
9
4
60
30
7
4
2,992
2,904
2,817
2,817
2,765
2,812
4,510
3/08
%
3/10
%
3/12
%
54
31
10
5
55
32
10
3
55
31
12
2
2,023
2,043
1,831
drug addiction programs. Support for spending more to reduce drug addiction
started at 60 percent in 1994 and slowly dropped to 55 percent by 2012. The
percentage of respondents who believed we are spending “too much” on drug
addiction programs remained stable from 1994 to 2012.
Downloaded from http://poq.oxfordjournals.org/ at Jordan University of Science and Technology on July 26, 2016
Too little
About right
Too much
No opinion
3/94
%
1018
Ramirez
Spending to Fight Crime
Satisfaction with Crime Policies and Authorities
Although conventional wisdom places issue ownership of crime with the
Republican Party (Beckett 1997), the polls show no clear party having
Table 16. Spending to Halt Crime. GSS: “We are faced with many
problems in this country, none of which can be solved easily or inexpensively.
I’m going to name some of these problems, and for each one I’d like you to
tell me whether you think we’re spending too much money on it, too little
money, or about the right amount.…Halting the rising crime rate?”
Too little
About right
Too much
Don’t know
N
Too little
About right
Too much
Don’t know
N
3/94
%
3/96
%
3/98
%
3/00
%
3/02
%
3/04
%
3/06
%
4/08
%
75
16
6
3
67
23
7
3
61
29
7
3
59
32
5
3
56
35
7
3
56
36
5
3
60
32
7
2
59
30
7
4
2,992
2,904
2,832
2,817
2,765
2,812
4,510
2,023
3/10
%
3/12
%
58
31
8
3
59
33
7
1
2,043
975
Downloaded from http://poq.oxfordjournals.org/ at Jordan University of Science and Technology on July 26, 2016
The decreasing punitiveness is also shown in public preferences toward spending to fight crime. Table 16 shows that 75 percent of respondents believed the
nation was spending “too little” money on “halting the rising crime rate” in
1994. By 2002, this figure had declined 18 percentage points. Disaggregating
this change shows that support for spending declined among men (21 percentage points), women (18 percentage points), blacks (14 percentage points),
whites (21 percentage points), Republicans (20 percentage points), Democrats
(18 percentage points), respondents between 18 and 29 years of age (36 percentage points), and respondents over the age of 65 (21 percentage points).
Public support for greater spending for “law enforcement” also declined
between 1994 and 2012. Table 17 shows that 63 percent of respondents
believed spending for law enforcement was “too little” in 1994. That figure
dropped 16 percentage points by 2002 and remained around 53 percent from
2004 to 2008. It declined to 49 percent by 2012.
Poll Trends—Views on Crime and Punishment
1019
Table 17. Spending on law Enforcement. GSS: “We are faced with
many problems in this country, none of which can be solved easily or
inexpensively. I’m going to name some of these problems, and for each one
I’d like you to tell me whether you think we’re spending too much money on
it, too little money, or about the right amount. Are we spending too much, too
little, or about the right amount on . . . law enforcement?”
N
3/96
%
3/98
%
3/00
%
3/02
%
3/04
%
3/06
%
4/08
%
3/10
%
63
28
7
3
57
31
9
3
54
35
8
3
50
38
8
4
47
41
10
2
53
36
9
2
53
34
9
2
53
37
9
1
47
39
12
2
2,992
2,904
2,832
2,817
2,765
2,812
4,510
2,023 2,043
3/12
%
Too little
About right
Too much
Don’t know
49
39
11
1
N
935
an advantage on the issue since 1994. Table 18 shows that the majority of
respondents (52 percent) viewed both parties as equal in dealing with crime
in 1994 (per the NBC/WSJ poll), but this percentage declined to 21 percent
in 1996 before it increased to 38 percent in 1998. The Pew surveys show a
smaller number of respondents viewing both parties as equal on crime relative
to the NBC/WSJ polls. In March 1998, 11 percent of respondents viewed both
parties as equal, which declined to 9 percent by October 2006. Since 1994,
roughly equal percentages of the public favored one party over the other. In
some polls more respondents favored the Democratic Party (i.e., 1998, 2002),
while in other polls more respondents favored the Republican Party (i.e., 1994,
1995, 1997, 2006).
Table 19 shows public satisfaction with national crime policies from 2001 to
2013. A small but stable percentage of respondents were “very satisfied” with
national policies to reduce crime. This percentage never rose above 11 percent
during this period. Almost twice as many respondents were “very dissatisfied”
with crime policies, although this number decreased seven percentage points
from 2001 to 2002. Dissatisfaction peaked by 2013, with 24 percent of the
public saying they were “very dissatisfied.”
Finally, table 20 shows satisfaction with law enforcement authorities. The
poll specifically asks respondents how much confidence they have in their local
Downloaded from http://poq.oxfordjournals.org/ at Jordan University of Science and Technology on July 26, 2016
Too little
About right
Too much
Don’t know
3/94
%
N
Democratic Party
Republican Party
About the same
Neither
Not sure
N
NBC/WSJ
6/94
%
NBC/WSJ
10/94
%
NBC/WSJ
11/94
%
NBC/WSJ
6/95
%
NBC/WSJ
12/95
%
9
20
52
15
4
18
26
33
19
4
23
28
21
12
7
14
25
34
19
8
17
32
25
20
6
20
27
27
20
6
1,002
1,005
1,509
802
1,008
2,007
NBC/WSJ
5/96
%
NBC/WSJ
10/96
%
NBC/WSJ
9/97
%
Pew
3/98
%
Pew
8/98
%
NBC/WSJ
10/98
%
21
31
25
16
7
30
28
21
13
8
21
27
29
16
7
35
34
11
10
10
39
32
10
7
12
19
27
38
10
6
1,001
1,008
2,004
1,206
2,226
1,025
Ramirez
Continued
Downloaded from http://poq.oxfordjournals.org/ at Jordan University of Science and Technology on July 26, 2016
Democratic Party
Republican Party
About the same
Neither
Not sure
NBC/WSJ
5/94
%
1020
Table 18. Which Party Is Better Suited to deal with Crime?. “When it comes to dealing with crime, which party do you think
would do a better job—the Democratic Party, the Republican Party, both about the same, or neither?”
Democratic Party
Republican Party
About the same
Neither
Not sure
N
Pew
6/99
%
NBC/WSJ
12/99
%
Pew
9/02
%
Pew
2/06
%
Pew
9/06
%
Pew
10/06a
%
35
35
12
6
12
22
26
33
14
5
35
26
14
10
15
37
30
8
10
15
32
34
8
10
16
29
33
9
9
20
1,153
2,014
1,919
1,502
1,507
2,006
The NBC/WSJ samples consist of telephone interviews of adults in the United States conducted by Hart and Teeter Research Companies. The Pew samples consist
of telephone interviews of adults in the United States conducted by Princeton Survey Research.
a
Sample contains oversample of 515 respondents in competitive U.S. House elections.
Poll Trends—Views on Crime and Punishment
Table 18. Continued
1021
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1022
Ramirez
Table 19. Satisfaction with national Criminal Justice Policy. GALLUP:
“We’d like to know how you feel about the state of the nation in each of the
following areas. For each one, please say whether you are very satisfied,
somewhat satisfied, somewhat dissatisfied, or very dissatisfied. If you don’t
have enough information about a particular subject to rate it, just say so. How
about the nation’s policies to reduce or control crime?”
N
Very satisfied
Somewhat satisfied
Somewhat dissatisfied
Very dissatisfied
No opinion
N
1/02
%
1/03
%
1/04
%
1/05
%
1/06
%
6
39
32
20
3
10
44
30
13
3
8
43
28
18
3
10
43
28
16
3
11
46
23
16
4
8
40
29
18
5
1,004
1,015
1,000
1,004
1,005
1,003
1/07
%
1/08
%
1/12
%
1/13
%
9
38
31
18
4
7
41
30
18
4
7
43
25
20
6
8
33
30
24
5
1,018
1,023
1,011
1,011
police. In 1998, 26 percent of respondents had “a great deal” of confidence in
their local police. This figure dropped to 18 percent by 2000 before it climbed
back to 34 percent by 2001 following the terrorist attacks on 9/11 (see also Shaw
and Brannan [2009]). Confidence in the police remained largely stable from
2002 to 2012, suggesting that changing views toward the police are not tightly
connected to the public’s changing attitudes toward punishment of criminals.
Conclusion
A majority of Americans support punitive criminal justice policies. However,
Americans today are less supportive of punitive policies than they were in the
midst of the “law and order” era between 1970 and 1994. This decline in support for punitive policies is consistent across specific punitive policies (e.g.,
death penalty, sentencing, spending) and across various subgroups (see also
Ramirez [2013]). This is a substantial change from the past, when punitive
policies appeared to be the dominant approach to crime.
These data also show a decreased perception of national crime since the mid1990s. Perceptions of crime, however, do not follow the same pattern as support
Downloaded from http://poq.oxfordjournals.org/ at Jordan University of Science and Technology on July 26, 2016
Very satisfied
Somewhat satisfied
Somewhat dissatisfied
Very dissatisfied
No opinion
1/01
%
Poll Trends—Views on Crime and Punishment
1023
Table 20. Confidence in the Police. GALLUP: “I am going to read you a
list of institutions in American society. Please tell me how much confidence
you, yourself, have in each one—a great deal, quite a lot, some, or very
little?...The police?”
6/99
%
6/00
%
5/01
%
6/02
%
6/03
%
5/04
%
5/05
%
26
32
30
10
1
24
33
33
10
0
18
36
33
10
2
34
25
25
13
3
28
31
31
9
1
29
32
29
9
2
24
40
26
10
0
28
35
29
7
1
1,003
1,016
1,021
1,010
1,020
1,029
1,002
1,004
6/06
%
6/07
%
6/08
%
6/09
%
6/10
%
6/11
%
6/12
%
25
33
29
10
2
23
31
33
12
1
28
30
30
10
1
28
31
29
10
1
26
33
27
12
1
25
31
30
11
2
26
30
28
15
1
1,002
1,007
822
1,011
1,020
1,020
1,004
Great deal
Quite a lot
Some
Very little
None
N
Great deal
Quite a lot
Some
Very little
None
N
for specific punitive policies. Thus, perceptions of crime cannot be uniquely
responsible for the shifts in punitiveness. Instead, support for punitive policies
has increased after instances of terrorism rather than periods of high crime.
Appendices
Abbreviations
CBS: Columbia Broadcasting Network;
Gallup: Gallup Organization;
GSS: National Opinion Research Center, General Social Survey;
GWU-Battleground, George Washington University Battleground Poll;
HART: Hart and Teeter Research Companies;
NBC: National Broadcasting Company;
NYT: New York Times;
PEW: Pew Research Center;
Roper: Roper Organization;
WSJ: Wall Street Journal
The survey results reported here were obtained from searches of the iPOLL
Databank and other resources provided by the Roper Center for Public
Downloaded from http://poq.oxfordjournals.org/ at Jordan University of Science and Technology on July 26, 2016
6/98
%
1024
Ramirez
CBS and CBS/NYT: 8/2001, 15.6%; 4/2005, 17.11%; 7/2005, 13.95%
(AAPOR RR1; response rates for surveys prior to 2001 were unavailable)
GSS: 1994, 77.8%; 1996, 76.1%; 1998, 75.6%; 2000, 70.0%; 2002, 70.1%;
2004, 70.4%; 2006, 71.2%; 2008, 70.4%; 2010, 70.3%; 2012, 71.4%
(AAPOR RR3)
PEW: 9/2006, 27%; 10/2006, 26% (AAPOR RR5; response rates were unavailable for surveys prior to 2006)
Response rates were requested from but not provided by Peter Hart Research
(including Hart and Teeter Research Companies), Gallup Organization, and
the National Broadcasting Company/Wall Street Journal.
disaggregation of GSS data
This appendix contains tables that disaggregate the General Social Survey
(GSS) data on public support toward judicial sentencing, the death penalty, and
spending on crime. Unfortunately, the data file necessary to perform a subgroup
analysis is not available from the Roper Center, iPoll, or the survey organization for many of the survey marginals listed in the manuscript. The GSS, however, does provide a data file that allowed the disaggregation of poll questions
by various subgroups. This analysis examined gender, race, age, and partisan
affiliation, since past research highlights important differences in punitive attitudes across these constituencies. The subgroup survey marginals are shown in
table A1 for spending to halt crime, table A2 for support for the death penalty,
and table A3 for support for tougher judicial sentencing. Consistent with past
research on the over-time movement in policy opinions of various subgroups
(i.e., Page and Shapiro 1992), these data show that the decline in support for
punitive policies was consistent across men, women, blacks, whites, the young,
the old, Republicans, and Democrats. Thus, the aggregate marginals in the text
are largely consistent with the subgroup analysis.
Appendix table notes: REP indicates a strong or moderate affiliation with
the Republican Party. DEM indicates a strong or moderate affiliation with the
Democratic Party. Independents and independents that lean toward a party
were excluded from these tables. 18–29 indicates respondents between the
ages of 18 and 29; 65+ indicates respondents 65 years of age or greater. These
data are derived from the GSS Cumulative Data file (citation in text).
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Opinion Research, University of Connecticut. Unless otherwise noted in the
table notes, all Gallup surveys between 1994 and 2007 involved national adult
samples and were conducted via telephone with households selected by random-digit-dialing. All Gallup surveys from 2008 onward involved national
adult samples and were conducted via landline and cell phone selected by
random-digit-dialing. Unless otherwise noted in the table notes, all General
Social Surveys involved national adult samples and were conducted by faceto-face interviews. Response rates are as follows (when available):
Men
3/94
%
Men
3/96
%
Men
3/98
%
Men
3/00
%
Men
3/02
%
Women
3/94
%
Women
3/96
%
Women
3/98
%
Women
3/00
%
Women
3/02
%
Too little
About right
Too much
74
19
7
65
26
8
58
32
10
56
37
7
51
39
10
80
14
6
73
22
6
67
28
5
65
31
4
62
33
5
N
646
620
572
604
589
819
772
758
753
732
White
3/94
%
White
3/96
%
White
3/98
%
White
3/00
%
White
3/02
%
Black
3/94
%
Black
3/96
%
Black
3/98
%
Black
3/00
%
Black
3/02
%
76
17
7
67
25
8
61
31
8
59
25
6
55
37
7
83
14
3
82
14
4
78
17
5
74
22
4
69
27
4
1,215
1,111
1,054
1,080
1,058
190
201
177
199
186
N
Continued
1025
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Too little
About right
Too much
Poll Trends—Views on Crime and Punishment
Table A1. Spending to Halt Crime across Groups. GSS: “We are faced with many problems in this country, none of which can
be solved easily or inexpensively. I’m going to name some of these problems, and for each oneI’d like you to tell me whether you
think we’re spending too much money on it, too little money, or about the right amount.…Halting the rising crime rate?”
1026
Table A1. Continued
18–29
3/94
%
18–29
3/96
%
18–29
3/98
%
18–29
3/00
%
18–29
3/02
%
65+
3/94
%
65+
3/96
%
65+
3/98
%
65+
3/00
%
65+
3/02
%
Too little
About right
Too much
86
11
3
72
24
4
64
32
4
61
36
3
50
45
5
78
12
10
70
23
6
63
30
7
62
33
5
57
36
7
N
229
248
236
223
239
239
1,180
1,106
1,126
1,096
REP
3/94
%
REP
3/96
%
REP
3/98
%
REP
3/00
%
REP
3/02
%
DEM
3/94
%
DEM
3/96
%
DEM
3/98
%
DEM
3/00
%
DEM
3/02
%
Too little
About right
Too much
72
19
9
65
25
10
57
35
8
60
32
7
52
40
8
80
15
5
71
25
4
71
23
7
63
32
5
62
32
6
N
424
396
349
324
366
538
455
431
440
444
Ramirez
Downloaded from http://poq.oxfordjournals.org/ at Jordan University of Science and Technology on July 26, 2016
N
Favor
Oppose
N
Men
3/96
%
Men
3/98
%
Men
3/00
%
Men
3/02
%
Women
3/94
%
Women
3/96
%
Women
3/98
%
Women
3/00
%
Women
3/02
%
82
17
82
18
79
21
75
25
75
25
76
23
72
28
69
31
63
37
63
37
1,229
1,223
1,154
1,149
631
1,556
1,457
1,445
1,416
677
White
3/94
%
White
3/96
%
White
3/98
%
White
3/00
%
White
3/02
%
Black
3/94
%
Black
3/96
%
Black
3/98
%
Black
3/00
%
Black
3/02
%
83
17
80
20
78
22
74
26
73
27
57
43
58
42
50
50
42
58
45
55
2,338
2,189
2,065
2,025
1,051
346
351
359
381
183
Continued
1027
Downloaded from http://poq.oxfordjournals.org/ at Jordan University of Science and Technology on July 26, 2016
Favor
Oppose
Men
3/94
%
Poll Trends—Views on Crime and Punishment
Table A2. death Penalty Support across Groups. GSS: “Do you favor or oppose the death penalty for persons convicted of
murder?”
1028
Table A2. Continued
18–29
3/94
%
18–29
3/96
%
18–29
3/98
%
18–29
3/00
%
18–29
3/02
%
65+
3/94
%
65+
3/96
%
65+
3/98
%
65+
3/00
%
65+
3/02
%
77
23
77
23
71
29
68
32
67
33
82
18
77
23
74
26
69
31
69
31
436
497
454
439
245
456
2,279
2,167
2,139
1,067
REP
3/94
%
REP
3/96
%
REP
3/98
%
REP
3/00
%
REP
3/02
%
DEM
3/94
%
DEM
3/96
%
DEM
3/98
%
DEM
3/00
%
DEM
3/02
%
Favor
Oppose
87
13
88
12
82
18
80
20
82
18
70
30
67
33
67
33
63
37
58
42
N
803
773
677
634
345
988
891
893
829
449
N
Ramirez
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Favor
Oppose
N
Not harsh
About right
Too harsh
N
Men
3/96
%
Men
3/98
%
Men
3/00
%
Men
3/02
%
Women
3/94
%
Women
3/96
%
Women
3/98
%
Women
3/00
%
Women
3/02
%
87
10
3
82
12
6
76
16
8
72
19
9
67
20
12
91
7
2
84
11
4
82
12
6
77
15
7
75
17
7
1,219
1,203
1,115
1,137
620
1,619
1,488
1,487
1,421
665
White
3/94
%
White
3/96
%
White
3/98
%
White
3/00
%
White
3/02
%
Black
3/94
%
Black
3/96
%
Black
3/98
%
Black
3/00
%
Black
3/02
%
90
8
2
85
12
3
80
14
5
76
18
6
73
19
8
85
9
6
78
10
13
74
10
15
69
14
17
66
16
17
2,360
2,182
2,075
2,007
1,033
364
369
389
398
182
Continued
1029
Downloaded from http://poq.oxfordjournals.org/ at Jordan University of Science and Technology on July 26, 2016
Not harsh
About right
Too harsh
Men
3/94
%
Poll Trends—Views on Crime and Punishment
Table A3. Judicial Sentencing across Groups. GSS: “In general, do you think that the courts in this area deal too harshly or not
harshly enough with criminals?”
1030
Table A3. Continued
18–29
3/94
%
18–29
3/96
%
18–29
3/98
%
18–29
3/00
%
18–29
3/02
%
65+
3/94
%
65+
3/96
%
65+
3/98
%
65+
3/00
%
65+
3/02
%
Not harsh
About right
Too harsh
85
10
5
83
10
7
77
12
11
72
16
12
69
18
13
92
7
1
83
11
5
80
13
7
75
16
9
72
18
10
N
429
485
439
414
235
474
2,283
2,195
2,121
1,047
REP
3/94
%
REP
3/96
%
REP
3/98
%
REP
3/00
%
REP
3/02
%
DEM
3/94
%
DEM
3/96
%
DEM
3/98
%
DEM
3/00
%
DEM
3/02
%
Not harsh
About right
Too harsh
91
7
2
86
10
4
85
12
3
83
13
4
79
19
2
89
8
3
80
14
6
79
14
7
71
19
10
69
19
12
N
809
783
686
635
348
1,018
907
910
848
434
Ramirez
Downloaded from http://poq.oxfordjournals.org/ at Jordan University of Science and Technology on July 26, 2016
Poll Trends—Views on Crime and Punishment
1031
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