Fixed Income Daily Notes

August 08, 2018

Fixed Income Daily Notes
8.50

(-1 day)
6.64
7.26
7.41
7.62
7.69
7.74
7.95
7.91
7.91
7.80
8.15
8.19
8.49

(-1 week)

6.70
7.31
7.38
7.62
7.67
7.79
7.89
7.89
7.87
7.77
8.15
8.16
8.48

(-1 month)
7.30
7.53
7.61
7.66
7.60

8.08
7.96
7.89
7.89
7.72
8.17
8.12
7.82

7.50
Yield (%)

Indonesia Government Bonds Yield
Maturities (Year)
7-Aug
01
6.62
02
7.23
03

7.39
04
7.57
05
7.67
06
7.90
07
7.92
08
7.90
09
7.89
10
7.77
15
8.12
20
8.17
30

8.49
Source: Bloomberg

6.50

5.50

4.50

01

02

03

04

05

06


07

08

09

10

15

20

30

Maturities (Year)
7-Aug

(-1 day)


(-1 week)

(-1 month)

Global Market Update


At Tuesday, August 07, US 10-year treasury yield
rose to 2.97% after asset shifting toward stock
market. Majority of global benchmark bond yield
was also move upward, indicated by 10-years UK
gilt and German bund that rose to 1.32% and
0.41% respectively.



Yield US Treasury pada hari Selasa, 07 Agustus 2018
ditutup naik ke level 2,97% akibat adanya
kecenderungan perpindahan aset investor ke pasar
saham akibat adanya kenaikan secara umum di pasar

saham AS. Senada dengan kondisi di pasar obligasi AS,
dari pasar obligasi global, yield acuan global sebagian
besar juga ditutup mengalami kenaikan, terlihat dari
yield 10 tahun UK Gilt dan German Bund yang ditutup
naik ke level 1,32% dan 0,41%.

Domestic Market Update


Foreign exchange reserves of Indonesia for July
decreased USD 1.5 billion to USD 118.3 billion.
This decreasing was caused by BI intervention to
stabilize Rupiah in July. Currently, Indonesia
foreign exchange reserves are equal 6.7 month
import and debt financing. However, foreign
exchange reserves which have been decreasing 6
month in a row is a signal for government to implement policy related to foreign exchange
reserves.




Posisi cadangan devisa Indonesia pada bulan Juli
kembali mengalami penurunan sebesar US$ 1,5 miliar
menjadi US$ 118,3 miliar. Penurunan ini disebabkan
oleh intervensi Bank Indonesia untuk stabilisasi nilai
Rupiah pada Bulan Juli. Posisi cadangan devisa saat ini
menurut Bank Indonesia (BI), masih setara dengan 6,7
bulan pembiayaan impor dan pembayaran utang luar
negeri Indonesia, di atas standar kecukupan
internasional, 3 bulan impor. Meskipun demikian,
penurunan ini merupakan penurunan yang keenam
kalinya secara berturut-turut sejak Februari 2018, dan
ini merupakan sinyal penting bagi pemerintah
Indonesia untuk melakukan intervensi kebijakan terkait
cadangan devisa.



Today, Government bond prices on the secondary
market are likely to weaken because of higher US

10-years treasury yield. Rupiah will be ranging
from IDR 14,429—14,463 and yield of 10 year
benchmark bond (FR0064) will be ranging from
7.74% - 7.77%.



Hari ini, pergerakan harga SBN secara umum di pasar
sekunder diprediksi cenderung melemah akibat naiknya
yield AS. Nilai tukar rupiah terhadap dolar AS diprediksi
bergerak pada kisaran Rp14.429 – Rp14.463 sedangkan
yield benchmark 10 tahun (FR0064) pada perdagangan
hari ini diperkirakan bergerak di rentang 7,74% 7,77%.

August 08, 2018

Last Price

Last Yield


94.80
92.30
98.11
87.60
89.40
98.37
102.49
100.35
94.75
107.25

7.08
7.58
7.52
8.08
7.69
5.00
7.81
8.21
8.03

7.97

Volume
(IDR bn)
1663
1337
1272
973
903
767
717
644
507
493

Chg (bps)
-9.88
11.34
11.02
54.66
429.32
155.42
74.22
126.73
54.70
49.98

% Chg
-0.16%
0.64%
0.65%
1.66%
1.54%
0.69%
2.74%
0.50%
0.71%
0.40%

% YTD
-4.16%
-0.32%
-2.65%
-1.8%
-5.6%
-0.45%
-15.96%
3.68%
0.40%
-2.1%

7-Aug
14,429
1.294
111.4
1.364
33.22
4.076

(-1 day)
14,486
1.294
111.4
1.368
33.35
4.082

7-Aug
(-1 week)
14,407
1.313
111.9
1.362
33.20
4.045

Consumer Price Index (MoM)
Consumer Price Index (YoY)
Core Inflation (YoY)
BI 7-Day RR Rate (%)
Foreign Reserve (US$ Bn)

Jul-18
0.28
3.18
2.87
5.25
118.3

Jun-18
0.59
3.12
2.72
5.25
119.8

May-18
0.21
3.23
2.75
4.75
122.9

Indonesia Sovereign CDS
As of
7-Aug
(-1 Day)
(-1 Week)
(-1 Month)
(-1 Year)

2-year
39.30
40.60
42.09
47.44
44.00

5-year
110.97
114.65
111.78
123.54
108.95

10-year
191.12
196.08
190.61
207.20
182.05

Most Active Government Bonds
FR0074
FR0063
PBS016
FR0065
FR0064
FR0061
FR0070
FR0072
FR0075
FR0071
Global Stock Marketss
Indonesia (JCI)
Malaysia (KLCI)
Thailand (SET)
Singapore (STI)
Hang Seng
Nikkei 225
Shanghai
Dow Jones (DJIA)
London (FTSE 100)
DAX

Last Price
6091
1791
1707
3340
28249
22663
2779
25629
7718
12648

FX Rate
USD/IDR
GBP/USD
USD/JPY
USD/SGD
USD/THB
USD/MYR
Macroeconomic Data

Most Active Corporate Bonds
BFIN04BCN1
BEXI04ACN1
BNII02ACN1
MYOR01CN3
BPFI02CN1
BNGA02SB
BEXI03ACN6
MDLN01BCN1
PNMP02BCN1
AKRA01B

Last Yield

AA-(idn)
idAAA
idAAA
idAA
idBBB
AA(idn)
idAAA
idA
idA
idAA-

100.00
99.00
98.75
95.95
100.00
104.75
96.00
102.35
100.55
100.95

6.42
7.90
8.38
7.53
8.06
7.72
8.12
8.91
7.44
6.84

7-Aug

(-1 day)

2.00
2.55
2.73
2.97
2.95

2.00
2.53
2.72
2.94
2.96

2.00
2.51
2.72
2.96
2.97

2.00
2.49
2.76
2.85
3.07

1.32
0.41
0.73
3.49
0.11
2.73
2.74
4.02
2.44

1.30
0.39
0.71
3.46
0.10
2.73
2.74
4.03
2.45

1.33
0.44
0.73
3.48
0.06
2.73
2.71
4.07
2.45

1.30
0.32
0.65
3.54
0.04
2.73
2.59
4.08
2.44

3.75
4.34
4.94

3.76
4.36
4.97

3.73
4.29
4.94

3.90
4.47
5.17

7-Aug

(-1 day)

5.04
6.40
7.01

5.01
6.40
7.01

5.00
6.45
7.09

4.94
7.19
7.35

2.08
2.34
2.52

2.08
2.34
2.52

2.08
2.35
2.53

2.07
2.34
2.51

5.75
13.8

5.75
13.6

5.74
13.7

5.74
14.1

7-Aug
98.35
94.69
94.34
100.15

(-1 day)
98.18
94.69
94.11
99.72

Change
17
1
23
43

Yield
7.51%
7.85%
8.19%
8.23%

Global Bonds
Fed Fund Rate & US T-Bonds Yield
Fed Fund Rate
2-Year
5-Year
10-Year
30-Year
10-Year Government Bond Yield
UK
Germany
France
China
Japan
Korea
Thailand
Malaysia
Singapore
Indonesia USD Bond Yield
INDO-22
INDO-27
INDO-47
Money Market
JIBOR
O/N
1M
3M
LIBOR
1M
3M
6M
Indonesia Interest Rates
Deposit 1M
Lending
Benchmark
FR0061
FR0059
FR0074
FR0072

Volume
(IDR bn)
480
90
90
49
40
27
25
25
21
20

Last Price

7-Aug
(-1 week) (- 1 month)

7-Aug
(-1 week) (- 1 month)

Government Bond Ownership As of August 06, 2018 (in Trillion)
Holders
2013
Banks
335.43
Bank Indonesia
44.44
Mutual Fund
42.50
Insurance
129.55
Foreign Investor
323.83
Pension Fund
39.47
Individual Investors
32.48
Others
47.56
Total
995.25
Source: Bloomberg, IDX & DJPPR

2014
375.55
41.63
45.79
150.60
461.35
43.30
30.41
61.32
1,209.96

2015
350.07
148.91
61.60
171.62
558.52
49.83
42.53
78.76
1,461.85

2016
399.46
134.25
85.66
238.24
665.81
87.28
57.75
104.84
1,773.28

2017
491.61
141.83
104.00
150.80
836.15
198.06
59.84
117.48
2,099.77

1-Aug-18
578.33
100.99
113.0
189.8
839.29
209.08
63.39
132.17
2,226.06

2-Aug-18
588.90
103.45
113.5
190.1
844.99
209.46
63.44
132.21
2,246.06

3-Aug-18
597.38
92.99
113.3
190.0
847.14
209.48
63.47
132.25
2,246.06

6-Aug-18
594.28
95.31
113.3
190.1
847.71
209.53
63.51
132.31
2,246.06

August 08, 2018

Government Bonds Prices
Closing Price Data : 7-Aug-2018
Series
FR0038
FR0048
FR0069
FR0036
FR0031
FR0034
FR0053
FR0061
FR0035
FR0043
FR0063
FR0046
FR0039
FR0070
FR0044
FR0040
FR0037
FR0056
FR0059
FR0042
FR0047
FR0064
FR0071
FR0052
FR0073
FR0054
FR0058
FR0074
FR0065
FR0068
FR0072
FR0045
FR0075
FR0050
FR0057
FR0062
FR0067
FR0076

Maturity
15-Aug-18
15-Sep-18
15-Apr-19
15-Sep-19
15-Nov-20
15-Jun-21
15-Jul-21
15-May-22
15-Jun-22
15-Jul-22
15-May-23
15-Jul-23
15-Aug-23
15-Mar-24
15-Sep-24
15-Sep-25
15-Sep-26
15-Sep-26
15-May-27
15-Jul-27
15-Feb-28
15-May-28
15-Mar-29
15-Aug-30
15-May-31
15-Jul-31
15-Jun-32
15-Aug-32
15-May-33
15-Mar-34
15-May-36
15-May-37
15-May-38
15-Jul-38
15-May-41
15-Apr-42
15-Jul-43
15-May-48

TTM
0.02
0.11
0.69
1.11
2.28
2.86
2.94
3.77
3.86
3.94
4.77
4.94
5.02
5.61
6.11
7.11
8.11
8.11
8.78
8.94
9.53
9.78
10.61
12.03
12.78
12.95
13.87
14.03
14.78
15.61
17.78
18.78
138.47
19.95
22.79
23.70
24.95
29.79

Source: Bloomberg, IBPA & MCS Estimates

Coupon
11.600%
9.000%
7.875%
11.500%
11.000%
12.800%
8.250%
7.000%
12.900%
10.250%
5.625%
9.500%
11.750%
8.375%
10.000%
11.000%
12.000%
8.375%
7.000%
10.250%
10.000%
6.125%
9.000%
10.500%
8.750%
9.500%
8.250%
7.500%
6.625%
8.375%
8.250%
9.750%
7.500%
10.500%
9.500%
6.375%
8.750%
7.375%

Price
100.27
100.57
100.98
105.17
108.07
114.02
102.44
98.35
117.20
108.71
92.17
107.00
116.20
102.47
110.20
116.64
124.40
103.03
94.69
114.66
113.41
89.06
107.04
118.00
104.43
110.61
101.25
94.34
87.54
101.40
100.15
113.65
93.81
119.75
110.02
78.83
103.02
88.62

YTM
-4.32%
3.17%
6.37%
6.54%
7.07%
7.26%
7.31%
7.51%
7.65%
7.64%
7.61%
7.76%
7.79%
7.82%
7.86%
7.89%
7.87%
7.86%
7.85%
7.93%
7.96%
7.74%
8.00%
8.13%
8.18%
8.16%
8.10%
8.19%
8.08%
8.21%
8.23%
8.30%
8.13%
8.44%
8.50%
8.46%
8.46%
8.49%

Price (-1)
100.30
100.57
100.96
105.15
107.92
114.06
102.40
98.18
117.05
108.52
92.10
107.00
116.11
102.97
110.18
116.58
124.26
102.97
94.69
114.45
113.06
88.97
106.90
118.00
104.41
110.39
100.00
94.11
87.29
100.88
99.72
113.649
93.62
119.90
110.08
78.83
103.02
88.54

Price Spread (bps)
-2.7
0.7
1.8
1.8
14.9
-4.2
3.9
16.9
14.3
18.9
7.0
0.0
8.6
-49.6
2.0
6.1
14.3
5.4
0.5
21.3
34.4
9.4
13.6
0.0
2.3
21.9
125.0
22.6
24.1
51.9
43.1
0.0
19.0
-15.0
-6.3
0.0
0.0
8.4

August 08, 2018

Macroeconomic Indicator
IndicatorCalendar
Calendar
(19 - 23
2018)
Macroeconomic
(August
06Maret
- August
10 2018)
INDONESIA

Date

Indicator

Series
Data

Actual

Previous

Projection

06

Economic Growth Rate (QoQ)

Quarter-II

4.21%

-0.42%

2.02%

06

Economic Growth Rate (YoY)

Quarter-II

5.27%

5.06%

5.10%

06

Consumer Confidence

Jul-18

124.8

128.1

128

07

Foreign Exchange Reserves

Jul-18

10

Current Account

Quarter-II

USD 118.3 billion USD 119.8 billion USD 119 billion
-

USD -5.5 billion

USD -5.6 billion

GLOBAL

Date

Indicator

Actual

Previous

Projection

07

Balance of Trade

Germany

Jun-18

EUR 21.8 billion

EUR 19.7 billion

EUR 24.5 billion

08

Balance of Trade

China

Jul-18

-

USD 41.61 billion

USD 26 billion

08

Crude Oil Inventory

US

Week Ended,
Aug 03 - 2018

-

3.80 million barrel -1.40 million barrel

09

Inflation Rate (YoY)

China

Jul-18

-

1.9%

2.1%

09

10-Year Note Auction

US

-

-

2.86%

-

09

Wholesale Inventories
(MoM)

US

Jun-18

-

0.4%

0%

09

Initial Jobless Claims

US

Week Ended,
Aug 04-2018

-

218 thousand

217 thousand

US

Week Ended,
July 28-2018

-

1724 thousand

1736 thousand

09 Continuing Jobless Claims

Country Series Data

10

Econ. Growth Annualized
Prelim.

Japan

Quarter-II

-

-0.6%

0.9%

10

Econ. Growth Prelim.
(YoY)

United
Kingdom

Quarter-II

-

1.2%

1.4%

10

Inflation Rate (YoY)

US

Jul-18

-

2.9%

2.9%

Source: Tradingeconomics, Bloomberg, and MCS Estimates (2018)

August 08, 2018

PT. MEGA CAPITAL SEKURITAS
Head Office
Menara Bank Mega Lt. 2
Jl. Kapten P. Tendean Kav 12-14A
Jakarta 12790

Dealing Room
Phone No

: +62 21 7995795

Fax No

: +62 21 79175965

Eva Sarah Hutabarat

[email protected]

Head of Debt Capital
Market

Cicih Sukaesih

[email protected]

Debt Sales

Emilda Mardiyanti

[email protected]

Debt Sales

Ajeng Palupi P.

[email protected]

Debt Sales

Qolbie Ardie

[email protected]

Economist &
Fixed Income Analyst

Siti Maulina M.

[email protected]

Administrative
Assistant

DISCLAIMER
This Document is for information only and for the use of the recipient. It is not to be reproduced or copied or made available to others. Under no
circumstances is it to be considered as an offer to sell or solicitation to buy any security. Any recommendation contained in this report may not be
suitable for all investors and strictly a personal view and should not be used as a sole judgment for investment. Moreover, although the information
contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, its accuracy, completeness and reliability cannot be guaranteed. All rights