Fixed Income Daily Notes

October 01, 2018

Fixed Income Daily Notes
10.00

(-1 day)
7.45
7.76
7.92
8.06
8.18
8.06
8.32
8.22
8.31
8.18
8.39
8.65
9.20

(-1 week)

7.46
7.74
7.93
8.06
8.09
8.23
8.25
8.27
8.25
8.14
8.48
8.57
9.20

(-1 month)
6.84
7.21
7.44
7.58
7.75

7.76
7.95
7.96
7.95
7.93
8.07
8.38
8.56

9.00
Yield (%)

Indonesia Government Bonds Yield
Maturities (Year)
28-Sep
01
7.40
02
7.70
03

7.87
04
8.02
05
8.05
06
7.88
07
8.24
08
8.24
09
8.22
10
8.12
15
8.36
20
8.56
30

9.22
Source: Bloomberg

8.00

7.00

6.00

01

02

03

04

05

06


07

08

09

10

15

20

30

Maturities (Year)
28-Sep

(-1 day)


(-1 week)

(-1 month)

Global Market Update


Yesterday, September 27 2018, yield of US
10-years flat at 3.06%. On the other hand, global
benchmark bond yield moved downward after
investor shifting from Italian bond market because
of worsening Italia budget deficit. This movement
was indicated by 10-years UK gilt and German
Bunds, which fell to 1.57% and 0.46%.



Yield 10-years US Treasury note pada Jum’at, 28
September ditutup datar di level 3,06%. Pada pasar
obligasi global, mayoritas yield acuan global ditutup

turun, terlihat dari yield 10 tahun UK Gilt dan German
Bunds yang ditutup turun ke level 1,57% dan 0,46%
akibat berpindahnya investor dari pasar obligasi Italia
setelah realisasi penerimaan anggaran pemerintah
mereka yang mengecewakan.

Domestic Market Update


Government will issue IDR 4trillion of Islamic
government securities (SBSN) or Sukuk tomorrow,
October 02. There are 6 auctioned SBSN; SPN-S
03042019 (New Issuance), SPN-S 03072019
(New Issuance), PBS019 (New Issuance), PBS016
(Reopening), PBS012 (Reopening), and PBS015
(Reopening)



Pada hari Selasa, 02 Oktober 2018, pemerintah akan

mengadakan lelang Surat Berharga Syariah Negara
(SBSN) atau Sukuk dengan target Rp 4 triliun. Adapun
seri SBSN yang akan dilelang ialah SPN-S 03042019
(New Issuance), SPN-S 03072019 (New Issuance),
PBS019 (New Issuance), PBS016 (Reopening), PBS012
(Reopening), dan PBS015 (Reopening)



Today, Government bond prices on the secondary
market are likely to strengthen moderately as
Rupiah appreciation tendency. Rupiah will be
ranging from IDR 14,849 - 14,901 and yield of
10-years benchmark bond (FR0064) will be ranging from 8.07% - 8.13%.



Hari ini, pergerakan harga SBN secara umum di pasar
sekunder diprediksi cenderung masih akan menguat
terbatas yang didorong oleh perkiraan apresiasi Rupiah

di hari ini. Nilai tukar rupiah terhadap dolar AS
diprediksi bergerak pada kisaran Rp14.849 – Rp14.901,
sedangkan yield benchmark 10 tahun (FR0064) pada
perdagangan hari ini diperkirakan bergerak di rentang
8,07% - 8,13%.

October 01, 2018

Most Active Government Bonds
FR0063
FR0064
FR0070
FR0077
FR0075
FR0056
FR0078
SPN12190411
FR0065
FR0031
Global Stock Marketss

Indonesia (JCI)
Malaysia (KLCI)
Thailand (SET)
Singapore (STI)
Hang Seng
Nikkei 225
Shanghai
Dow Jones (DJIA)
London (FTSE 100)
DAX

Last Price
5977
1793
1756
3257
27789
24120
2821
26458

7510
12247

Last Price

Last Yield

91.26
87.76
101.42
101.10
90.50
101.20
102.95
96.87
86.50
106.55

7.92
7.97
6.84
7.88
8.50
8.17
7.00
6.05
8.23
7.59

Volume
(IDR bn)
3198
1788
1669
1428
1302
1129
1100
744
619
610

Chg (bps)
47.34
-5.49
3.46
20.79
72.85
323.30
29.57
18.38
-35.24
-188.86

% Chg
0.80%
-0.31%
0.20%
0.64%
0.26%
1.36%
1.06%
0.07%
-0.47%
-1.52%

% YTD
-5.96%
-0.20%
0.15%
-4.3%
-7.1%
5.95%
-14.69%
7.04%
-2.31%
-5.2%

28-Sep
14,901
1.303
113.7
1.367
32.33
4.139

(-1 day)
14,920
1.308
113.4
1.368
32.42
4.137

28-Sep
(-1 week)
14,852
1.308
112.6
1.364
32.44
4.133

Aug-18
-0.05
3.20
2.90
5.50
117.9

Jul-18
0.28
3.18
2.87
5.25
118.3

Jun-18
0.59
3.12
2.72
5.25
119.8

FX Rate
USD/IDR
GBP/USD
USD/JPY
USD/SGD
USD/THB
USD/MYR
Macroeconomic Data
Consumer Price Index (MoM)
Consumer Price Index (YoY)
Core Inflation (YoY)
BI 7-Day RR Rate (%)
Foreign Reserve (US$ Bn)
Indonesia Sovereign CDS
As of
28-Sep
(-1 Day)
(-1 Week)
(-1 Month)
(-1 Year)

2-year
59.02
62.17
59.52
46.76
42.20

5-year
130.28
131.35
132.62
127.33
104.05

10-year
210.47
207.67
211.54
208.83
172.79

Most Active Corporate Bonds
ADMF04CCN3
MEDC03ACN2
WSKT03ACN3
MEDC03ACN1
WSKT03BCN3
BEXI04ACN2
SMFP04ACN4
ISAT02ACN3
ASDF04ACN1
NISP03ACN1

Last Yield

idAAA
idA+
A-(idn)
idA+
A-(idn)
idAAA
idAAA
idAAA
AAA(idn)
idAAA

100.05
100.00
100.00
100.00
99.20
100.12
98.62
98.97
98.40
100.17

8.48
10.47
9.00
8.61
9.96
6.86
8.25
5.20
5.34
6.53

28-Sep

(-1 day)

2.25
2.55
2.73
3.06
2.95

2.00
2.53
2.72
3.05
2.96

2.00
2.51
2.72
3.06
2.97

2.00
2.49
2.76
2.86
3.07

1.57
0.47
0.80
3.62
0.12
2.73
2.81
4.06
2.49

1.60
0.53
0.84
3.63
0.11
2.73
2.81
4.07
2.50

1.55
0.46
0.78
3.68
0.13
2.73
2.85
4.08
2.55

1.43
0.33
0.68
3.58
0.10
2.73
2.74
4.04
2.37

3.87
4.51
5.09

3.87
4.52
5.12

3.91
4.52
5.15

3.75
4.35
4.89

28-Sep

(-1 day)

5.65
6.99

5.40
6.74

5.44
6.70

5.40
6.70

7.35

7.14

7.13

7.12

2.23
2.38
2.60

2.23
2.38
2.60

2.18
2.35
2.57

2.08
2.31
2.53

5.98
13.5

6.01
13.6

5.91
13.6

5.83
13.6

28-Sep
96.99
92.73
92.43
97.63

(-1 day)
96.90
92.21
92.34
97.35

Change
10
53
9
28

Yield
7.97%
8.19%
8.44%
8.51%

Global Bonds
Fed Fund Rate & US T-Bonds Yield
Fed Fund Rate
2-Year
5-Year
10-Year
30-Year
10-Year Government Bond Yield
UK
Germany
France
China
Japan
Korea
Thailand
Malaysia
Singapore
Indonesia USD Bond Yield
INDO-22
INDO-27
INDO-47
Money Market
JIBOR
O/N
1M
3M
LIBOR
1M
3M
6M
Indonesia Interest Rates
Deposit 1M
Lending
Benchmark
FR0061
FR0059
FR0074
FR0072

Volume
(IDR bn)
400
291
227
200
150
149
140
126
100
100

Last Price

28-Sep
(-1 week) (- 1 month)

28-Sep
(-1 week) (- 1 month)

Government Bond Ownership As of September 27, 2018 (in Trillion)
Holders
2013
Banks
335.43
Bank Indonesia
44.44
Mutual Fund
42.50
Insurance
129.55
Foreign Investor
323.83
Pension Fund
39.47
Individual Investors
32.48
Others
47.56
Total
995.25
Source: Bloomberg, IDX & DJPPR

2014
375.55
41.63
45.79
150.60
461.35
43.30
30.41
61.32
1,209.96

2015
350.07
148.91
61.60
171.62
558.52
49.83
42.53
78.76
1,461.85

2016
399.46
134.25
85.66
238.24
665.81
87.28
57.75
104.84
1,773.28

2017
491.61
141.83
104.00
150.80
836.15
198.06
59.84
117.48
2,099.77

24-Sep-18
603.06
117.57
117.26
191.47
843.82
215.39
64.26
133.82
2,286.64

25-Sep-18
601.05
118.94
117.02
191.55
844.69
215.43
64.29
133.68
2,286.64

26-Sep-18
600.61
119.67
117.05
191.58
844.47
215.36
64.26
133.65
2,286.64

27-Sep-18
631.48
102.72
117.73
191.59
849.43
215.66
64.27
133.75
2,306.64

October 01, 2018

Government Bonds Prices
Closing Price Data : 28-Sep-2018
Series
FR0069
FR0036
FR0031
FR0034
FR0053
FR0061
FR0035
FR0043
FR0063
FR0046
FR0039
FR0070
FR0044
FR0040
FR0037
FR0056
FR0059
FR0042
FR0047
FR0064
FR0071
FR0052
FR0073
FR0054
FR0058
FR0074
FR0065
FR0068
FR0072
FR0045
FR0075
FR0050
FR0057
FR0062
FR0067
FR0076

Maturity
15-Apr-19
15-Sep-19
15-Nov-20
15-Jun-21
15-Jul-21
15-May-22
15-Jun-22
15-Jul-22
15-May-23
15-Jul-23
15-Aug-23
15-Mar-24
15-Sep-24
15-Sep-25
15-Sep-26
15-Sep-26
15-May-27
15-Jul-27
15-Feb-28
15-May-28
15-Mar-29
15-Aug-30
15-May-31
15-Jul-31
15-Jun-32
15-Aug-32
15-May-33
15-Mar-34
15-May-36
15-May-37
15-May-38
15-Jul-38
15-May-41
15-Apr-42
15-Jul-43
15-May-48

TTM
0.55
0.96
2.13
2.72
2.80
3.63
3.72
3.80
4.63
4.80
4.88
5.47
5.97
6.97
7.97
7.97
8.63
8.80
9.39
9.64
10.47
11.89
12.64
12.80
13.72
13.89
14.64
15.47
17.64
18.64
19.64
19.81
22.64
23.56
24.81
29.65

Source: Bloomberg, IBPA & MCS Estimates

Coupon
7.875%
11.500%
11.000%
12.800%
8.250%
7.000%
12.900%
10.250%
5.625%
9.500%
11.750%
8.375%
10.000%
11.000%
12.000%
8.375%
7.000%
10.250%
10.000%
6.125%
9.000%
10.500%
8.750%
9.500%
8.250%
7.500%
6.625%
8.375%
8.250%
9.750%
7.500%
10.500%
9.500%
6.375%
8.750%
7.375%

Price
100.52
103.87
106.61
112.16
101.07
96.99
114.99
106.76
90.94
105.44
114.49
100.49
108.58
114.66
121.33
101.17
92.73
111.75
110.90
86.92
104.88
115.00
102.56
108.75
98.00
92.43
85.78
99.18
97.63
106.73
90.26
115.02
105.90
75.02
98.98
83.46

YTM
6.86%
7.22%
7.56%
7.72%
7.81%
7.97%
8.12%
8.13%
8.01%
8.10%
8.09%
8.26%
8.15%
8.19%
8.29%
8.17%
8.19%
8.33%
8.30%
8.11%
8.29%
8.47%
8.42%
8.37%
8.50%
8.44%
8.32%
8.47%
8.51%
8.93%
8.53%
8.87%
8.89%
8.93%
8.85%
9.20%

Price (-1)
100.50
103.85
106.48
111.83
100.98
96.90
115.05
106.70
90.50
105.08
113.99
100.48
107.99
114.26
121.33
101.19
92.21
111.75
110.90
86.66
104.66
115.00
101.13
108.33
98.00
92.34
85.57
98.87
97.35
107.324
89.52
115.02
105.90
75.02
98.71
82.73

Price Spread (bps)
2.5
1.5
12.7
33.3
8.6
9.8
-5.5
5.9
43.5
36.5
50.6
0.7
58.7
40.0
0.0
-2.1
52.6
0.0
0.0
26.1
21.8
0.0
142.7
42.5
0.0
8.6
20.6
30.4
27.6
-59.2
74.7
0.0
0.0
0.0
26.9
73.2

October 01, 2018

Macroeconomic Indicator
IndicatorCalendar
Calendar
(19 - 2301
Maret
2018)05 2018)
Macroeconomic
(October
- October
INDONESIA

Date

Indicator

Series
Data

Actual

Previous

Projection

01

Inflation Rate (MoM)

Sep-18

-

3.20%

3.33%

01

Inflation Rate (YoY)

Sep-18

-

-0.05%

0.26%

01

Core Inflation Rate (YoY)

Sep-18

-

2.90%

3.00%

04

Consumer Confidence

Sep-18

-

121.6

122.2

05

Foreign Exchange Reserves

Sep-18

-

USD 117.9 billion USD 117.5 billion

GLOBAL

Date

Indicator

01

Unemployment Rate

01 ISM Manufacturing PMI

Country Series Data

Actual

Previous

Projection

Euro Area

Aug-18

-

8.2%

8.2%

US

Sep-18

-

61.3

59.0

163 thousand

193 thousand

03

ADP Employment
Change

US

Sep-18

-

03

Crude Oil Inventory

US

Week Ended,
Sep 28 - 2018

-

04

Initial Jobless Claims

US

Week Ended,
Sep 29-2018

-

214 thousand

212 thousand

04

Continuing Jobless
Claims

US

Week Ended,
Sep 22-2018

-

1661 thousand

1651 thousand

05

Balance of Trade

US

Aug-18

-

USD -50.1 billion

USD -50.3 billion

05

Non-Farm Payrolls

US

Sep-18

-

201 thousand

195 thousand

05

Unemployment Rate

US

Sep-18

-

3.9%

3.9%

Source: Tradingeconomics, Bloomberg, and MCS Estimates (2018)

1.85 million barrel -0.66 million barrel

October 01, 2018

PT. MEGA CAPITAL SEKURITAS
Head Office
Menara Bank Mega Lt. 2
Jl. Kapten P. Tendean Kav 12-14A
Jakarta 12790

Dealing Room
Phone No

: +62 21 7995795

Fax No

: +62 21 79175965

Eva Sarah Hutabarat

eva@megasekuritas.id

Head of Debt Capital
Market

Cicih Sukaesih

cicih@megasekuritas.id

Debt Sales

Emilda Mardiyanti

emilda.mardiyanti@megasekuritas.id

Debt Sales

Ajeng Palupi P.

palupi@megasekuritas.id

Debt Sales

Qolbie Ardie

qolbie@megasekuritas.id

Economist &
Fixed Income Analyst

Siti Maulina M.

siti.maulina@megasekuritas.id

Administrative
Assistant

DISCLAIMER
This Document is for information only and for the use of the recipient. It is not to be reproduced or copied or made available to others. Under no
circumstances is it to be considered as an offer to sell or solicitation to buy any security. Any recommendation contained in this report may not be
suitable for all investors and strictly a personal view and should not be used as a sole judgment for investment. Moreover, although the information
contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, its accuracy, completeness and reliability cannot be guaranteed. All rights
reserved by PT Mega Capital Sekuritas.