Directory UMM :wiley:Public:college:hill:

=> econometric.

Estimation

selecting appropriate method.

Interpretation

how the x

’s impact on the y

.

Inference

testing, intervals, prediction.

What Book Has Covered

17.2

_{Topics for This Chapter}

1. Types of Data by Source

2. Nonexperimental Data

3. Text Data vs. Electronic Data

4. Selecting a Topic

5. Writing an Abstract

6. Research Report Format

17.3

Types of Data by Source

i)

Experimental Data

from controlled experiments.

ii)

Observational Data

passively generated by society.

iii)

Survey Data

data collected through interviews.

Time vs. Cross-Section

Time Series Data

data collected at distinct points in time (e.g. weekly sales, daily stock price, annual

budget deficit, monthly unemployment.) Cross Section Data

data collected over samples of units, individuals, households, firms at a particular point in time. (e.g. salary, race, gender, unemployment by state.)

17.5

Micro vs. Macro

Micro Data:

data collected on individual economic

decision making units such as individuals,

households or firms.

Macro Data:

data resulting from a pooling or aggregating

over individuals, households or firms at the

local, state or national levels.

Flow vs. Stock

Flow Data:

outcome measured over a period of time,

such as the consumption of gasoline during

the last quarter of 1997.

Stock Data:

outcome measured at a particular point in

time, such as crude oil held by Chevron in

US storage tanks on April 1, 1997.

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76

Quantitative vs. Qualitative

Quantitative Data:

outcomes such as prices or income that may

be expressed as numbers or some

transfor-mation of them (e.g. wages, trade deficit).

Qualitative Data:

outcomes that are of an “either-or” nature

(e.g. male, home owner, Methodist, bought

car last year, voted in last election).

International Data

International Financial Statistics (IMF monthly). Basic Statistics of the Community (OECD annual). Consumer Price Indices in the European

Community (OECD annual). World Statistics (UN annual).

Yearbook of National Accounts Statistics (UN). FAO Trade Yearbook (annual).

17.9

United States Data

Survey of Current Business (BEA monthly). Handbook of Basic Economic Statistics (BES). Monthly Labor Review (BLS monthly). Federal Researve Bulletin (FRB monthly). Statistical Abstract of the US (BC annual). Economic Report of the President (CEA annual). Economic Indicators (CEA monthly).

Agricultural Statistics (USDA annual).

Agricultural Situation Reports (USDA monthly).

State and Local Data

State and Metropolitan Area Data Book

(Commerce and BC, annual).

CPI Detailed Report (BLS, annual).

Census of Population and Housing

(Commerce, BC, annual).

County and City Data Book

(Commerce, BC, annual).

17.11

Citibase on CD-ROM

• Financial series: interest rates, stock market, etc. • Business formation, investment and consumers. • Construction of housing.

• Manufacturing, business cycles, foreign trade. • Prices: producer and consumer price indexes. • Industrial production.

• Capacity and productivity. • Population.

Citibase on CD-ROM

(continued)

• Labor statistics: unemployment, households. • National income and product accounts in detail. • Forecasts and projections.

• Business cycle indicators.

• Energy consumption, petroleum production, etc. • International data series including trade

statistics.

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77

Resources for Economists

Resources for Economists by Bill Goffe

http://econwpa.wustl.edu/EconFAQ/EconFAQ.html

Bill Goffe provides a vast database of information about the economics profession including economic organizations, working papers and reports,

and economic data series.

Internet Data Sources

• Shortcut to All Resources. • Macro and Regional Data. • Other U.S. Data.

• World and Non-U.S. Data. • Finance and Financial Markets. • Data Archives.

• Journal Data and Program Archives. A few of the items on Bill Goffe’s Table of Contents:

17.15

Useful Internet Addresses

http://seamonkey.ed.asu.edu/~behrens/teach/WWW_data.html http://www.sims.berkeley.edu/~hal/pages/interesting.html http://www.stls.frb.org FED RESERVE BK - ST. LOUIS

http://www.bls.gov BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS

http://nber.harvard.edu NAT’L BUR. ECON. RESEARCH

http://www.inform.umd.edu:8080/EdRes/Topic/EconData/ .www/econdata.html UNIVERSITY OF MARYLAND

http://www.bog.frb.fed.us FEB BOARD OF GOVERNORS

http://www.webcom.com/~yardeni/economic.html

Data from Surveys

i)

identify the population of interest.

ii)

designing and selecting the sample.

iii)

collecting the information.

iv)

data reduction, estimation and inference.

The survey process has four distinct aspects:

17.17

Controlled Experiments

1. Labor force participation: negative income tax : guaranteed minimum income experiment. 2. National cash housing allowance experiment:

impact on demand and supply of housing. 3. Health insurance: medical cost reduction:

sensitivity of income groups to price change. 4. Peak-load pricing and electricity use:

daily use pattern of residential customers.

Controlled experiments were done on these topics:

Economic Data Problems

I. poor implicit experimental design

(i) collinear explanatory variables.

(ii) measurement errors.

II. inconsistent with theory specification

(i) wrong level of aggregation.

(ii) missing observations or variables.

(iii) unobserved heterogeneity.

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78

Selecting a Topic

• “What am I interested in?”

• Well-defined, relatively simple topic. • Ask prof for ideas and references.

• Journal of Economic Literature (ECONLIT) • Make sure appropriate data are available. • Avoid extremely difficult econometrics. • Plan your work and work your plan.

General tips for selecting a research topic:

ð ð ð ð ð ð ð

Writing an Abstract

(i) concise statement of the problem. (ii) key references to available information. (iii) description of research design including: