Fixed Income Daily Notes
August 13, 2018
Fixed Income Daily Notes
8.50
(-1 day)
6.48
7.07
7.17
7.35
7.51
7.78
7.87
7.78
7.72
7.64
8.02
8.07
8.49
(-1 week)
6.67
7.30
7.42
7.65
7.72
7.74
7.92
7.94
7.92
7.83
8.16
8.21
8.49
(-1 month)
6.96
7.24
7.30
7.34
7.36
7.45
7.77
7.55
7.51
7.37
7.78
7.94
8.29
7.50
Yield (%)
Indonesia Government Bonds Yield
Maturities (Year)
10-Aug
01
6.52
02
7.09
03
7.20
04
7.35
05
7.59
06
7.78
07
7.79
08
7.79
09
7.76
10
7.70
15
8.08
20
8.12
30
8.49
Source: Bloomberg
6.50
5.50
4.50
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
15
20
30
Maturities (Year)
10-Aug
(-1 day)
(-1 week)
(-1 month)
Global Market Update
At Friday, August 10, US 10-year treasury yield fell to
2.87% after investors moved their assets to US
because of Turkey currency crises. Majority of global
benchmark bond yield was also move downward,
indicated by 10-years UK gilt and German bund that
fell to 1.24% and 0.32% respectively.
Yield 10-years US Treasury note pada hari Jum’at, 10
Agustus 2018 ditutup turun ke level 2,87% akibat adanya
perpindahan aset dari investor akibat krisis Turki. Dari
pasar obligasi global, yield acuan global sebagian besar
juga ditutup turun, terlihat dari yield 10 tahun UK Gilt dan
German Bund yang ditutup turun ke level 1,24% dan
0,32%.
Domestic Market Update
At Friday, August, 10, BI published Current Account
Deficit (CAD) data for 2nd quarter. Indonesia CAD for
2nd quarter reached 3% GDP, or USD 8.03 billion.
CAD increasing was caused by deficit of Indonesia
balance of trade and government debt payment this
quarter. Executive Director of Statistic Department
BI, Yati Kurniati, stated that even though in this
quarter CAD widen to 3% GDP, in 2018, CAD still at
2.6% GDP. However, widen CAD are predicted to
affect Rupiah in the short term.
Pada hari Jum’at, 10 Agustus 2018, Bank Indonesia (BI)
mencatat defisit transaksi berjalan (CAD) pada Kuartal-II
2018 menembus 3% PDB atau setara dengan US$ 8,03
miliar. Tingginya CAD ini disebabkan oleh semakin
besarnya defisit neraca perdagangan pada Kuartal-II 2018
disertai jadwal pembayaran Utang Luar Negeri (ULN)
pemerintah pada kuartal ini. Direktur Eksekutif
Departemen Statistik BI, Yati Kurniati, menyatakan bahwa
meskipun pada kuartal-II ini nilai CAD mencapai 3% PDB,
secara keseluruhan di 2018, CAD Indonesia masih berada
pada batas aman, yaitu 2,6% dari PDB. Meskipun
demikian, CAD yang melebar ini dapat memberikan
sentimen negatif pada Rupiah di jangka pendek.
At Tuesday, August 14 2018, Government will issue
IDR 10—20 trillion of government securities. There
are
6
auctioned
government
securities;
SPN12181115
(Reopening),
SPN12190606
(Reopening), FR0063 (Reopening),
FR0064
(Reopening), FR0065 (Reopening), and FR0075
(Reopening).
Pada hari Selasa, 14 Agustus 2018, pemerintah akan
mengadakan lelang Surat Utang Negara (SUN) atau sukuk
dengan target Rp 10 - 20 triliun. Adapun seri SUN yang
akan dilelang ialah ialah SPN12181115 (Reopening),
SPN12190606 (Reopening), FR0063 (Reopening), FR0064
(Reopening), FR0065 (Reopening), dan FR0075
(Reopening).
Today, Government bond prices on the secondary
market are likely to weaken because of Turkey crises
and CAD negative sentiment. Rupiah will be ranging
from IDR 14,505 - 14,553 and yield of 10 year
benchmark bond (FR0064) will be ranging from
7.63% - 7.69%.
Hari ini, pergerakan harga SBN secara umum di pasar
sekunder diprediksi cenderung melemah akibat dampak
dari krisis Turki dan sentimen negatif CAD Indonesia yang
melebar di Kuartal-II. Nilai tukar rupiah terhadap dolar AS
diprediksi bergerak pada kisaran Rp14.505 – Rp14.553
sedangkan yield benchmark 10 tahun (FR0064) pada
perdagangan hari ini diperkirakan bergerak di rentang
7,63% - 7,69%.
August 13, 2018
Last Price
Last Yield
92.30
89.50
101.00
95.40
103.35
87.60
108.25
99.25
96.00
98.31
7.58
7.67
5.00
7.73
7.63
8.08
7.84
7.23
7.90
7.39
Volume
(IDR bn)
1905
1176
793
600
580
556
439
396
294
250
Chg (bps)
11.92
0.80
-16.52
-41.96
-240.68
-300.31
0.93
-196.09
-74.76
-251.76
% Chg
0.20%
0.04%
-0.96%
-1.26%
-0.84%
-1.33%
0.03%
-0.77%
-0.97%
-1.99%
% YTD
-4.38%
0.50%
-2.72%
-3.5%
-5.2%
-2.05%
-15.48%
2.40%
-0.27%
-3.8%
10-Aug
14,529
1.277
110.8
1.373
33.32
4.085
(-1 day)
14,474
1.282
111.1
1.368
33.24
4.075
10-Aug
(-1 week)
14,476
1.300
111.3
1.365
33.26
4.083
Consumer Price Index (MoM)
Consumer Price Index (YoY)
Core Inflation (YoY)
BI 7-Day RR Rate (%)
Foreign Reserve (US$ Bn)
Jul-18
0.28
3.18
2.87
5.25
118.3
Jun-18
0.59
3.12
2.72
5.25
119.8
May-18
0.21
3.23
2.75
4.75
122.9
Indonesia Sovereign CDS
As of
10-Aug
(-1 Day)
(-1 Week)
(-1 Month)
(-1 Year)
2-year
42.57
40.16
41.30
45.02
47.87
5-year
120.02
113.28
116.35
119.75
116.03
10-year
203.34
194.18
191.60
199.95
189.61
Most Active Government Bonds
FR0063
FR0064
FR0069
FR0059
FR0070
FR0065
FR0071
FR0061
FR0075
PBS016
Global Stock Marketss
Indonesia (JCI)
Malaysia (KLCI)
Thailand (SET)
Singapore (STI)
Hang Seng
Nikkei 225
Shanghai
Dow Jones (DJIA)
London (FTSE 100)
DAX
Last Price
6077
1806
1706
3285
28367
22298
2795
25313
7667
12424
FX Rate
USD/IDR
GBP/USD
USD/JPY
USD/SGD
USD/THB
USD/MYR
Macroeconomic Data
Most Active Corporate Bonds
BIIF02ACN1
PNMP02ACN2
BEXI03CCN4
BBIA01C
FIFA02BCN3
PIHC01ACN2
PTPP02ACN1
SMFP04BCN3
ISAT01BCN1
TBIG02CN3
Last Yield
AA+(idn)
idA
idAAA
AAA(idn)
idAAA
AAA(idn)
idA+
idAAA
idAAA
AA-(idn)
100.00
100.15
101.01
102.67
101.20
100.95
100.40
97.25
103.09
97.00
7.75
6.71
7.85
7.24
7.21
7.05
8.09
8.07
7.66
6.86
10-Aug
(-1 day)
2.00
2.55
2.73
2.87
2.95
2.00
2.53
2.72
2.93
2.96
2.00
2.51
2.72
2.95
2.97
2.00
2.49
2.76
2.83
3.07
1.24
0.32
0.67
3.55
0.10
2.73
2.71
4.04
2.41
1.30
0.37
0.71
3.54
0.11
2.73
2.72
4.05
2.45
1.33
0.41
0.74
3.46
0.10
2.73
2.73
4.04
2.47
1.27
0.34
0.62
3.48
0.04
2.73
2.60
4.09
2.45
3.75
4.35
4.93
3.75
4.35
4.92
3.77
4.37
5.00
3.82
4.37
5.02
10-Aug
(-1 day)
5.05
6.41
7.00
5.05
6.41
7.01
5.00
6.40
7.01
4.98
7.05
7.31
2.07
2.32
2.51
2.07
2.34
2.52
2.08
2.34
2.52
2.07
2.34
2.52
5.77
13.8
5.79
13.6
5.71
13.3
5.66
14.2
10-Aug
99.11
95.61
95.68
101.24
(-1 day)
99.01
95.63
95.78
101.20
Change
10
-2
-10
4
Yield
7.27%
7.70%
8.02%
8.12%
Global Bonds
Fed Fund Rate & US T-Bonds Yield
Fed Fund Rate
2-Year
5-Year
10-Year
30-Year
10-Year Government Bond Yield
UK
Germany
France
China
Japan
Korea
Thailand
Malaysia
Singapore
Indonesia USD Bond Yield
INDO-22
INDO-27
INDO-47
Money Market
JIBOR
O/N
1M
3M
LIBOR
1M
3M
6M
Indonesia Interest Rates
Deposit 1M
Lending
Benchmark
FR0061
FR0059
FR0074
FR0072
Volume
(IDR bn)
340
137
60
45
40
40
20
13
12
12
Last Price
10-Aug
(-1 week) (- 1 month)
10-Aug
(-1 week) (- 1 month)
Government Bond Ownership As of August 09, 2018 (in Trillion)
Holders
2013
Banks
335.43
Bank Indonesia
44.44
Mutual Fund
42.50
Insurance
129.55
Foreign Investor
323.83
Pension Fund
39.47
Individual Investors
32.48
Others
47.56
Total
995.25
Source: Bloomberg, IDX & DJPPR
2014
375.55
41.63
45.79
150.60
461.35
43.30
30.41
61.32
1,209.96
2015
350.07
148.91
61.60
171.62
558.52
49.83
42.53
78.76
1,461.85
2016
399.46
134.25
85.66
238.24
665.81
87.28
57.75
104.84
1,773.28
2017
491.61
141.83
104.00
150.80
836.15
198.06
59.84
117.48
2,099.77
6-Aug-18
594.28
95.31
113.3
190.1
847.71
209.53
63.51
132.31
2,246.06
7-Aug-18
586.92
96.64
113.4
190.2
847.47
209.68
63.55
132.26
2,240.06
8-Aug-18
583.05
100.21
113.1
190.2
847.98
209.70
63.58
132.27
2,240.06
9-Aug-18
584.17
99.39
113.3
190.2
845.76
210.12
63.55
132.31
2,238.74
August 13, 2018
Government Bonds Prices
Closing Price Data : 10-Aug-2018
Series
FR0038
FR0048
FR0069
FR0036
FR0031
FR0034
FR0053
FR0061
FR0035
FR0043
FR0063
FR0046
FR0039
FR0070
FR0044
FR0040
FR0037
FR0056
FR0059
FR0042
FR0047
FR0064
FR0071
FR0052
FR0073
FR0054
FR0058
FR0074
FR0065
FR0068
FR0072
FR0045
FR0075
FR0050
FR0057
FR0062
FR0067
FR0076
Maturity
15-Aug-18
15-Sep-18
15-Apr-19
15-Sep-19
15-Nov-20
15-Jun-21
15-Jul-21
15-May-22
15-Jun-22
15-Jul-22
15-May-23
15-Jul-23
15-Aug-23
15-Mar-24
15-Sep-24
15-Sep-25
15-Sep-26
15-Sep-26
15-May-27
15-Jul-27
15-Feb-28
15-May-28
15-Mar-29
15-Aug-30
15-May-31
15-Jul-31
15-Jun-32
15-Aug-32
15-May-33
15-Mar-34
15-May-36
15-May-37
15-May-38
15-Jul-38
15-May-41
15-Apr-42
15-Jul-43
15-May-48
TTM
0.01
0.10
0.68
1.10
2.27
2.85
2.93
3.76
3.85
3.93
4.76
4.93
5.02
5.60
6.10
7.10
8.10
8.10
8.77
8.93
9.52
9.77
10.60
12.02
12.77
12.94
13.86
14.02
14.77
15.61
17.78
18.78
138.47
19.94
22.78
23.70
24.95
29.78
Source: Bloomberg, IBPA & MCS Estimates
Coupon
11.600%
9.000%
7.875%
11.500%
11.000%
12.800%
8.250%
7.000%
12.900%
10.250%
5.625%
9.500%
11.750%
8.375%
10.000%
11.000%
12.000%
8.375%
7.000%
10.250%
10.000%
6.125%
9.000%
10.500%
8.750%
9.500%
8.250%
7.500%
6.625%
8.375%
8.250%
9.750%
7.500%
10.500%
9.500%
6.375%
8.750%
7.375%
Price
100.12
100.56
101.06
105.15
108.30
114.39
103.02
99.11
118.22
109.07
92.61
107.00
117.16
102.81
111.24
117.59
125.01
103.91
95.61
115.82
114.57
89.74
108.22
119.65
105.87
111.59
100.00
95.68
88.13
102.27
101.24
113.65
94.36
120.15
110.27
79.08
102.66
88.88
YTM
-31.09%
2.49%
6.22%
6.51%
6.95%
7.10%
7.08%
7.27%
7.36%
7.53%
7.50%
7.76%
7.57%
7.74%
7.65%
7.73%
7.77%
7.71%
7.70%
7.76%
7.80%
7.63%
7.84%
7.93%
8.00%
8.04%
8.25%
8.02%
8.01%
8.12%
8.12%
8.30%
8.07%
8.40%
8.47%
8.43%
8.49%
8.49%
Price (-1)
100.48
100.63
101.08
105.17
108.39
114.19
103.04
99.01
118.29
109.00
92.75
107.00
116.98
102.81
111.00
116.85
124.68
103.75
95.63
115.31
113.99
89.90
108.09
119.65
106.03
111.39
100.00
95.78
88.41
102.17
101.20
113.649
94.73
120.15
110.27
79.08
102.66
88.55
Price Spread (bps)
-35.4
-7.7
-2.0
-1.8
-9.6
19.9
-1.6
10.3
-7.2
7.7
-14.8
0.0
17.4
0.0
24.0
73.4
33.2
16.1
-1.9
51.0
58.4
-15.8
13.2
0.0
-15.2
19.8
0.0
-10.2
-28.0
10.2
4.0
0.0
-37.2
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
32.4
August 13, 2018
Macroeconomic Indicator
IndicatorCalendar
Calendar
(19 - 23
2018)
Macroeconomic
(August
13Maret
- August
17 2018)
INDONESIA
Date
Indicator
Series
Data
Actual
Previous
Projection
15
Balance of Trade
Jul-18
-
USD 1.74 billion
USD 1.3 billion
16
7-Days Repo Rate
-
-
5.25%
5.50%
Country Series Data
Actual
Previous
Projection
Quarter-II
-
2.3%
2.6%
GLOBAL
Date
14
Indicator
Economic Growth Rate
Germany
Flash (YoY)
14
Unemployment Rate
United
Kingdom
Jun-18
-
4.2%
4.3%
14
Economic Growth Rate
2nd Est. (YoY)
Euro
Area
Quarter-II
-
2.5%
2.1%
15
Inflation Rate (YoY)
United
Kingdom
Jul-18
-
2.4%
2.5%
15
Retail Sales (MoM)
US
Jul-18
-
0.5%
0.3%
15
Crude Oil Inventory
US
Week Ended,
Aug 10 - 2018
-
16
Balance of Trade
Japan
Jul-18
-
JPY 721 billion
JPY –0.96 billion
16
Initial Jobless Claims
US
Week Ended,
Aug 11-2018
-
213 thousand
217 thousand
16
Continuing Jobless
Claims
US
Week Ended,
Aug 04-2018
-
1755 thousand
1737 thousand
17
Inflation Rate Final
(YoY)
Euro
Area
Jul-18
-
2.0%
2.1%
Source: Tradingeconomics, Bloomberg, and MCS Estimates (2018)
-1.35 million barrel 0.75 million barrel
August 13, 2018
PT. MEGA CAPITAL SEKURITAS
Head Office
Menara Bank Mega Lt. 2
Jl. Kapten P. Tendean Kav 12-14A
Jakarta 12790
Dealing Room
Phone No
: +62 21 7995795
Fax No
: +62 21 79175965
Eva Sarah Hutabarat
[email protected]
Head of Debt Capital
Market
Cicih Sukaesih
[email protected]
Debt Sales
Emilda Mardiyanti
[email protected]
Debt Sales
Ajeng Palupi P.
[email protected]
Debt Sales
Qolbie Ardie
[email protected]
Economist &
Fixed Income Analyst
Siti Maulina M.
[email protected]
Administrative
Assistant
DISCLAIMER
This Document is for information only and for the use of the recipient. It is not to be reproduced or copied or made available to others. Under no
circumstances is it to be considered as an offer to sell or solicitation to buy any security. Any recommendation contained in this report may not be
suitable for all investors and strictly a personal view and should not be used as a sole judgment for investment. Moreover, although the information
contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, its accuracy, completeness and reliability cannot be guaranteed. All rights
reserved by PT Mega Capital Sekuritas.
Fixed Income Daily Notes
8.50
(-1 day)
6.48
7.07
7.17
7.35
7.51
7.78
7.87
7.78
7.72
7.64
8.02
8.07
8.49
(-1 week)
6.67
7.30
7.42
7.65
7.72
7.74
7.92
7.94
7.92
7.83
8.16
8.21
8.49
(-1 month)
6.96
7.24
7.30
7.34
7.36
7.45
7.77
7.55
7.51
7.37
7.78
7.94
8.29
7.50
Yield (%)
Indonesia Government Bonds Yield
Maturities (Year)
10-Aug
01
6.52
02
7.09
03
7.20
04
7.35
05
7.59
06
7.78
07
7.79
08
7.79
09
7.76
10
7.70
15
8.08
20
8.12
30
8.49
Source: Bloomberg
6.50
5.50
4.50
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
15
20
30
Maturities (Year)
10-Aug
(-1 day)
(-1 week)
(-1 month)
Global Market Update
At Friday, August 10, US 10-year treasury yield fell to
2.87% after investors moved their assets to US
because of Turkey currency crises. Majority of global
benchmark bond yield was also move downward,
indicated by 10-years UK gilt and German bund that
fell to 1.24% and 0.32% respectively.
Yield 10-years US Treasury note pada hari Jum’at, 10
Agustus 2018 ditutup turun ke level 2,87% akibat adanya
perpindahan aset dari investor akibat krisis Turki. Dari
pasar obligasi global, yield acuan global sebagian besar
juga ditutup turun, terlihat dari yield 10 tahun UK Gilt dan
German Bund yang ditutup turun ke level 1,24% dan
0,32%.
Domestic Market Update
At Friday, August, 10, BI published Current Account
Deficit (CAD) data for 2nd quarter. Indonesia CAD for
2nd quarter reached 3% GDP, or USD 8.03 billion.
CAD increasing was caused by deficit of Indonesia
balance of trade and government debt payment this
quarter. Executive Director of Statistic Department
BI, Yati Kurniati, stated that even though in this
quarter CAD widen to 3% GDP, in 2018, CAD still at
2.6% GDP. However, widen CAD are predicted to
affect Rupiah in the short term.
Pada hari Jum’at, 10 Agustus 2018, Bank Indonesia (BI)
mencatat defisit transaksi berjalan (CAD) pada Kuartal-II
2018 menembus 3% PDB atau setara dengan US$ 8,03
miliar. Tingginya CAD ini disebabkan oleh semakin
besarnya defisit neraca perdagangan pada Kuartal-II 2018
disertai jadwal pembayaran Utang Luar Negeri (ULN)
pemerintah pada kuartal ini. Direktur Eksekutif
Departemen Statistik BI, Yati Kurniati, menyatakan bahwa
meskipun pada kuartal-II ini nilai CAD mencapai 3% PDB,
secara keseluruhan di 2018, CAD Indonesia masih berada
pada batas aman, yaitu 2,6% dari PDB. Meskipun
demikian, CAD yang melebar ini dapat memberikan
sentimen negatif pada Rupiah di jangka pendek.
At Tuesday, August 14 2018, Government will issue
IDR 10—20 trillion of government securities. There
are
6
auctioned
government
securities;
SPN12181115
(Reopening),
SPN12190606
(Reopening), FR0063 (Reopening),
FR0064
(Reopening), FR0065 (Reopening), and FR0075
(Reopening).
Pada hari Selasa, 14 Agustus 2018, pemerintah akan
mengadakan lelang Surat Utang Negara (SUN) atau sukuk
dengan target Rp 10 - 20 triliun. Adapun seri SUN yang
akan dilelang ialah ialah SPN12181115 (Reopening),
SPN12190606 (Reopening), FR0063 (Reopening), FR0064
(Reopening), FR0065 (Reopening), dan FR0075
(Reopening).
Today, Government bond prices on the secondary
market are likely to weaken because of Turkey crises
and CAD negative sentiment. Rupiah will be ranging
from IDR 14,505 - 14,553 and yield of 10 year
benchmark bond (FR0064) will be ranging from
7.63% - 7.69%.
Hari ini, pergerakan harga SBN secara umum di pasar
sekunder diprediksi cenderung melemah akibat dampak
dari krisis Turki dan sentimen negatif CAD Indonesia yang
melebar di Kuartal-II. Nilai tukar rupiah terhadap dolar AS
diprediksi bergerak pada kisaran Rp14.505 – Rp14.553
sedangkan yield benchmark 10 tahun (FR0064) pada
perdagangan hari ini diperkirakan bergerak di rentang
7,63% - 7,69%.
August 13, 2018
Last Price
Last Yield
92.30
89.50
101.00
95.40
103.35
87.60
108.25
99.25
96.00
98.31
7.58
7.67
5.00
7.73
7.63
8.08
7.84
7.23
7.90
7.39
Volume
(IDR bn)
1905
1176
793
600
580
556
439
396
294
250
Chg (bps)
11.92
0.80
-16.52
-41.96
-240.68
-300.31
0.93
-196.09
-74.76
-251.76
% Chg
0.20%
0.04%
-0.96%
-1.26%
-0.84%
-1.33%
0.03%
-0.77%
-0.97%
-1.99%
% YTD
-4.38%
0.50%
-2.72%
-3.5%
-5.2%
-2.05%
-15.48%
2.40%
-0.27%
-3.8%
10-Aug
14,529
1.277
110.8
1.373
33.32
4.085
(-1 day)
14,474
1.282
111.1
1.368
33.24
4.075
10-Aug
(-1 week)
14,476
1.300
111.3
1.365
33.26
4.083
Consumer Price Index (MoM)
Consumer Price Index (YoY)
Core Inflation (YoY)
BI 7-Day RR Rate (%)
Foreign Reserve (US$ Bn)
Jul-18
0.28
3.18
2.87
5.25
118.3
Jun-18
0.59
3.12
2.72
5.25
119.8
May-18
0.21
3.23
2.75
4.75
122.9
Indonesia Sovereign CDS
As of
10-Aug
(-1 Day)
(-1 Week)
(-1 Month)
(-1 Year)
2-year
42.57
40.16
41.30
45.02
47.87
5-year
120.02
113.28
116.35
119.75
116.03
10-year
203.34
194.18
191.60
199.95
189.61
Most Active Government Bonds
FR0063
FR0064
FR0069
FR0059
FR0070
FR0065
FR0071
FR0061
FR0075
PBS016
Global Stock Marketss
Indonesia (JCI)
Malaysia (KLCI)
Thailand (SET)
Singapore (STI)
Hang Seng
Nikkei 225
Shanghai
Dow Jones (DJIA)
London (FTSE 100)
DAX
Last Price
6077
1806
1706
3285
28367
22298
2795
25313
7667
12424
FX Rate
USD/IDR
GBP/USD
USD/JPY
USD/SGD
USD/THB
USD/MYR
Macroeconomic Data
Most Active Corporate Bonds
BIIF02ACN1
PNMP02ACN2
BEXI03CCN4
BBIA01C
FIFA02BCN3
PIHC01ACN2
PTPP02ACN1
SMFP04BCN3
ISAT01BCN1
TBIG02CN3
Last Yield
AA+(idn)
idA
idAAA
AAA(idn)
idAAA
AAA(idn)
idA+
idAAA
idAAA
AA-(idn)
100.00
100.15
101.01
102.67
101.20
100.95
100.40
97.25
103.09
97.00
7.75
6.71
7.85
7.24
7.21
7.05
8.09
8.07
7.66
6.86
10-Aug
(-1 day)
2.00
2.55
2.73
2.87
2.95
2.00
2.53
2.72
2.93
2.96
2.00
2.51
2.72
2.95
2.97
2.00
2.49
2.76
2.83
3.07
1.24
0.32
0.67
3.55
0.10
2.73
2.71
4.04
2.41
1.30
0.37
0.71
3.54
0.11
2.73
2.72
4.05
2.45
1.33
0.41
0.74
3.46
0.10
2.73
2.73
4.04
2.47
1.27
0.34
0.62
3.48
0.04
2.73
2.60
4.09
2.45
3.75
4.35
4.93
3.75
4.35
4.92
3.77
4.37
5.00
3.82
4.37
5.02
10-Aug
(-1 day)
5.05
6.41
7.00
5.05
6.41
7.01
5.00
6.40
7.01
4.98
7.05
7.31
2.07
2.32
2.51
2.07
2.34
2.52
2.08
2.34
2.52
2.07
2.34
2.52
5.77
13.8
5.79
13.6
5.71
13.3
5.66
14.2
10-Aug
99.11
95.61
95.68
101.24
(-1 day)
99.01
95.63
95.78
101.20
Change
10
-2
-10
4
Yield
7.27%
7.70%
8.02%
8.12%
Global Bonds
Fed Fund Rate & US T-Bonds Yield
Fed Fund Rate
2-Year
5-Year
10-Year
30-Year
10-Year Government Bond Yield
UK
Germany
France
China
Japan
Korea
Thailand
Malaysia
Singapore
Indonesia USD Bond Yield
INDO-22
INDO-27
INDO-47
Money Market
JIBOR
O/N
1M
3M
LIBOR
1M
3M
6M
Indonesia Interest Rates
Deposit 1M
Lending
Benchmark
FR0061
FR0059
FR0074
FR0072
Volume
(IDR bn)
340
137
60
45
40
40
20
13
12
12
Last Price
10-Aug
(-1 week) (- 1 month)
10-Aug
(-1 week) (- 1 month)
Government Bond Ownership As of August 09, 2018 (in Trillion)
Holders
2013
Banks
335.43
Bank Indonesia
44.44
Mutual Fund
42.50
Insurance
129.55
Foreign Investor
323.83
Pension Fund
39.47
Individual Investors
32.48
Others
47.56
Total
995.25
Source: Bloomberg, IDX & DJPPR
2014
375.55
41.63
45.79
150.60
461.35
43.30
30.41
61.32
1,209.96
2015
350.07
148.91
61.60
171.62
558.52
49.83
42.53
78.76
1,461.85
2016
399.46
134.25
85.66
238.24
665.81
87.28
57.75
104.84
1,773.28
2017
491.61
141.83
104.00
150.80
836.15
198.06
59.84
117.48
2,099.77
6-Aug-18
594.28
95.31
113.3
190.1
847.71
209.53
63.51
132.31
2,246.06
7-Aug-18
586.92
96.64
113.4
190.2
847.47
209.68
63.55
132.26
2,240.06
8-Aug-18
583.05
100.21
113.1
190.2
847.98
209.70
63.58
132.27
2,240.06
9-Aug-18
584.17
99.39
113.3
190.2
845.76
210.12
63.55
132.31
2,238.74
August 13, 2018
Government Bonds Prices
Closing Price Data : 10-Aug-2018
Series
FR0038
FR0048
FR0069
FR0036
FR0031
FR0034
FR0053
FR0061
FR0035
FR0043
FR0063
FR0046
FR0039
FR0070
FR0044
FR0040
FR0037
FR0056
FR0059
FR0042
FR0047
FR0064
FR0071
FR0052
FR0073
FR0054
FR0058
FR0074
FR0065
FR0068
FR0072
FR0045
FR0075
FR0050
FR0057
FR0062
FR0067
FR0076
Maturity
15-Aug-18
15-Sep-18
15-Apr-19
15-Sep-19
15-Nov-20
15-Jun-21
15-Jul-21
15-May-22
15-Jun-22
15-Jul-22
15-May-23
15-Jul-23
15-Aug-23
15-Mar-24
15-Sep-24
15-Sep-25
15-Sep-26
15-Sep-26
15-May-27
15-Jul-27
15-Feb-28
15-May-28
15-Mar-29
15-Aug-30
15-May-31
15-Jul-31
15-Jun-32
15-Aug-32
15-May-33
15-Mar-34
15-May-36
15-May-37
15-May-38
15-Jul-38
15-May-41
15-Apr-42
15-Jul-43
15-May-48
TTM
0.01
0.10
0.68
1.10
2.27
2.85
2.93
3.76
3.85
3.93
4.76
4.93
5.02
5.60
6.10
7.10
8.10
8.10
8.77
8.93
9.52
9.77
10.60
12.02
12.77
12.94
13.86
14.02
14.77
15.61
17.78
18.78
138.47
19.94
22.78
23.70
24.95
29.78
Source: Bloomberg, IBPA & MCS Estimates
Coupon
11.600%
9.000%
7.875%
11.500%
11.000%
12.800%
8.250%
7.000%
12.900%
10.250%
5.625%
9.500%
11.750%
8.375%
10.000%
11.000%
12.000%
8.375%
7.000%
10.250%
10.000%
6.125%
9.000%
10.500%
8.750%
9.500%
8.250%
7.500%
6.625%
8.375%
8.250%
9.750%
7.500%
10.500%
9.500%
6.375%
8.750%
7.375%
Price
100.12
100.56
101.06
105.15
108.30
114.39
103.02
99.11
118.22
109.07
92.61
107.00
117.16
102.81
111.24
117.59
125.01
103.91
95.61
115.82
114.57
89.74
108.22
119.65
105.87
111.59
100.00
95.68
88.13
102.27
101.24
113.65
94.36
120.15
110.27
79.08
102.66
88.88
YTM
-31.09%
2.49%
6.22%
6.51%
6.95%
7.10%
7.08%
7.27%
7.36%
7.53%
7.50%
7.76%
7.57%
7.74%
7.65%
7.73%
7.77%
7.71%
7.70%
7.76%
7.80%
7.63%
7.84%
7.93%
8.00%
8.04%
8.25%
8.02%
8.01%
8.12%
8.12%
8.30%
8.07%
8.40%
8.47%
8.43%
8.49%
8.49%
Price (-1)
100.48
100.63
101.08
105.17
108.39
114.19
103.04
99.01
118.29
109.00
92.75
107.00
116.98
102.81
111.00
116.85
124.68
103.75
95.63
115.31
113.99
89.90
108.09
119.65
106.03
111.39
100.00
95.78
88.41
102.17
101.20
113.649
94.73
120.15
110.27
79.08
102.66
88.55
Price Spread (bps)
-35.4
-7.7
-2.0
-1.8
-9.6
19.9
-1.6
10.3
-7.2
7.7
-14.8
0.0
17.4
0.0
24.0
73.4
33.2
16.1
-1.9
51.0
58.4
-15.8
13.2
0.0
-15.2
19.8
0.0
-10.2
-28.0
10.2
4.0
0.0
-37.2
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
32.4
August 13, 2018
Macroeconomic Indicator
IndicatorCalendar
Calendar
(19 - 23
2018)
Macroeconomic
(August
13Maret
- August
17 2018)
INDONESIA
Date
Indicator
Series
Data
Actual
Previous
Projection
15
Balance of Trade
Jul-18
-
USD 1.74 billion
USD 1.3 billion
16
7-Days Repo Rate
-
-
5.25%
5.50%
Country Series Data
Actual
Previous
Projection
Quarter-II
-
2.3%
2.6%
GLOBAL
Date
14
Indicator
Economic Growth Rate
Germany
Flash (YoY)
14
Unemployment Rate
United
Kingdom
Jun-18
-
4.2%
4.3%
14
Economic Growth Rate
2nd Est. (YoY)
Euro
Area
Quarter-II
-
2.5%
2.1%
15
Inflation Rate (YoY)
United
Kingdom
Jul-18
-
2.4%
2.5%
15
Retail Sales (MoM)
US
Jul-18
-
0.5%
0.3%
15
Crude Oil Inventory
US
Week Ended,
Aug 10 - 2018
-
16
Balance of Trade
Japan
Jul-18
-
JPY 721 billion
JPY –0.96 billion
16
Initial Jobless Claims
US
Week Ended,
Aug 11-2018
-
213 thousand
217 thousand
16
Continuing Jobless
Claims
US
Week Ended,
Aug 04-2018
-
1755 thousand
1737 thousand
17
Inflation Rate Final
(YoY)
Euro
Area
Jul-18
-
2.0%
2.1%
Source: Tradingeconomics, Bloomberg, and MCS Estimates (2018)
-1.35 million barrel 0.75 million barrel
August 13, 2018
PT. MEGA CAPITAL SEKURITAS
Head Office
Menara Bank Mega Lt. 2
Jl. Kapten P. Tendean Kav 12-14A
Jakarta 12790
Dealing Room
Phone No
: +62 21 7995795
Fax No
: +62 21 79175965
Eva Sarah Hutabarat
[email protected]
Head of Debt Capital
Market
Cicih Sukaesih
[email protected]
Debt Sales
Emilda Mardiyanti
[email protected]
Debt Sales
Ajeng Palupi P.
[email protected]
Debt Sales
Qolbie Ardie
[email protected]
Economist &
Fixed Income Analyst
Siti Maulina M.
[email protected]
Administrative
Assistant
DISCLAIMER
This Document is for information only and for the use of the recipient. It is not to be reproduced or copied or made available to others. Under no
circumstances is it to be considered as an offer to sell or solicitation to buy any security. Any recommendation contained in this report may not be
suitable for all investors and strictly a personal view and should not be used as a sole judgment for investment. Moreover, although the information
contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, its accuracy, completeness and reliability cannot be guaranteed. All rights
reserved by PT Mega Capital Sekuritas.