Directory UMM :Data Elmu:jurnal:A:Agricultural & Forest Meterology:Vol103Issue1-2June2000:

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Education and training in agricultural meteorology:

current status and future needs

J. Lomas

a,∗

, J.R. Milford

, E. Mukhala

c a_{Regional Meteorological Training Centre, P.O. Box 25, Bet Dagan, Israel}

b_{University of Zimbabwe, Department of Physics, Mount Pleasant, P.O. Box, M.P. 167, Harare, Zimbabwe} c_{University of the Orange Free State, Department of Agrometeorology, P.O. Box 339, Bloemfontein, South Africa}

Abstract

The present status of education and training in agricultural meteorology is reviewed in relation to the agreed objectives of this interdisciplinary science. The major educational contribution of the agronomy faculties to the educational and research effort is acknowledged. The significant part played by the World Meteorological Organization Regional Meteorological Training Centres in the training of technical and scientific personnel is reviewed. The heterogeneous training facilities and programmes of the Regional Meteorological Training Centres are described. The absence of a scientifically based evaluation system of the training effort in agricultural meteorology is noted.

In the 21st century the socio-economic gap between the richest developing and the poorest developed countries is likely to widen. Thus, the requirements for education, research and services in agricultural meteorology are likely to diverge especially in the field of applications. The major aim of the developing countries remains the increase in quantity and nutritional quality of food and fibre production. The aim of the developed countries will most likely centre on sustainable agricultural systems environmentally compatible with the requirements of an urban society. Educational facilities in agricultural meteorology will have to adapt to such a gradually changing situation nationally, regionally and internationally. Advantages from remote learning techniques and commercial systems are also likely to follow. Research priorities will be reviewed in view of changing national objectives. Agricultural meteorology will have to be integrated into the major research efforts of national priority. Growing competition in the field of meteorological services will also affect agricultural meteorology. The services of proven use to the agricultural community are likely to succeed in the 21st century as the free market economy gains ground. © 2000 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Keywords: Education and training in agricultural meteorology; Human resources; Regional meteorological training centres

1. Introduction

1.1. General

The International Workshop on Agricultural Meteo-rology in the 21st Century — Needs and Perspectives is being held at a most opportune time, for the world

∗_{Corresponding author. Tel.:}₊_{972-3-968-2165;}

fax:+972-3-968-2176.

community has shown increasing interest in issues of environmentally sound agricultural development and the sustainable use of our natural resources. Agri-cultural meteorology, which is an interdisciplinary science, has a major role to play in the efforts to promote sustainable development in the 21st century. Increasing agricultural production and forecasting is sought in virtually all countries. In many countries, governments have expressed the desire to use me-teorological information to a much larger extent in

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day-to-day farm planning and operations. Therefore, the number and quality of trained technical and pro-fessional personnel in agricultural meteorology are critical factors since the effectiveness of any agri-cultural meteorology service is determined by the competence and qualifications of its staff. To sustain this service, there is need for qualified personnel ca-pable and willing to play this role. In addition to those employed in the agrometeorological services, much greater knowledge of the subject is needed within both the user and the research communities.

This paper presents a selected overview of the cur-rent status together with a projection of the future needs for agrometeorological education and training. Education and training have a common objective, i.e. development of human resources: however, there are specific differences between them.

1.2. The concept of education

The Oxford English Dictionary defines education as ‘systematic instruction, schooling or training given to the young and to adults in preparation for the work of life’. Education includes the development of sound reasoning processes to enhance one’s ability to under-stand and interpret information. The concept of ed-ucation, by and large, includes activities directed at providing information, understanding skills, and moral values that are required in the normal course of life. Providing information and skills is not for a limited scope or activity but focuses on a wide range of activ-ities. The main aim of education is to create circum-stances and opportunities for youth and adults to learn, among other things, cultures and natural laws and to acquire skills, including languages, that form the ba-sis for learning, personal development, creativity and communications. Education, therefore, broadens ones scientific base and is usually of long duration. For a professional career in such a multidisciplinary area as agricultural meteorology the educational process must particularly enable practitioners to find and use infor-mation from a range of sciences other than their own. 1.3. The concept of training

The Oxford English Dictionary defines training as the training of a person for some particular profession. Training is, therefore, a learning experience that seeks

a relatively permanent change in an individual that will improve his or her ability to perform on the job.

Training is regarded as a systematic and planned process to change the knowledge, skills and behavior of personnel to achieve the objectives of the organisa-tion they work for. In contrast to educaorganisa-tion, training is task-oriented because it focuses on the work an indi-vidual performs. Job description or task requirements of a particular job are used to determine the nature of a training programme. Training is, therefore, directed at improving one’s job performance in an organisation. Training is conducted as a result of technological in-novation, when current work standards are not being maintained and when such situations are ascribed to lack of knowledge and or skills among individual per-sonnel in an organisation. Training is, therefore, more specific, job oriented and usually of short duration.

Neither education nor training is a one time effort. Knowledge and skills acquisition must be viewed as a continuous process throughout one’s career. It is therefore regrettable that not all requests for education and training fellowships to WMO can be met. During 1997, 307 fellowships were awarded (28 in agricul-tural meteorology) and 547 remained unsatisfied (47 in agrometeorology) (G. Necco, WMO, personal com-munication).

2. Agricultural meteorology — its scope and aims

‘Agricultural Meteorology’ is concerned with dis-covering, defining and applying knowledge of the interactions between meteorological and hydrological factors, and biological systems to practical use in agri-culture, including hortiagri-culture, animal husbandry and forestry. Agricultural meteorology is concerned with processes that occur from the soil layer of the deepest plant and tree roots, through the air layer near the ground in which crops and woods grow and animals live, to the highest levels of interest to aerobiology, the latter with particular reference to the effective transport of seeds, spores, pollen and insects (WMO, 1981).

In addition to an examination of the natural climate, and its local variations, agricultural meteorology is concerned with induced modifications in the environ-ment (as brought about, for example, by windbreaks, soil management, irrigation, glass-houses, etc.). It also

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includes the study of climatic conditions of storage, whether indoors or in field heaps, an examination of atmospheric conditions in animal shelters and farm buildings, and the monitoring of environmental con-ditions during the transport of agricultural produce by land, sea or air.

The primary aim of agricultural meteorology is to extend and fully utilize our knowledge of atmospheric and related processes to optimize agricultural pro-duction, thus increasing profitability and decreasing risk. The proper application of principles in this sci-ence can lead to improving the quantity and quality of crop and animal production, and to improving food security.

A secondary aim of agricultural meteorology is to help conserve natural resources and protect the envi-ronment from detrimental usage. Sustainable human activity is strongly influenced by climatic conditions and variability. The climate often places constraints upon a particular form of land use at a given place and time. Therefore agricultural meteorology has an important role to play in land use planning.

Agricultural meteorology, therefore, includes two basic subject areas:

1. Physical sciences — specifically the physics of the atmosphere (i.e. meteorology and climatology) and soil physics and hydrology;

2. Biological sciences — specifically physiology, ecology and pathology of plants and animals, and associated disciplines of agriculture such as agronomy and horticulture.

3. Limitations to the application of agricultural meteorology

Decker (1994) reviewed the historical development of agricultural meteorology from the year 1800. Al-though the review is biased towards the experiences in the US, his analysis and projections have applica-tion to events occurring in other regions of the world. The operational applications of agricultural meteo-rology and the specific requirements of the farming community have been stated by Lomas (1996) to be dependent on three basic conditions:

1. The availability of a suitable data base and infras-tructure;

2. The provision of accurate and timely information;

3. The services must be economically beneficial to the customer (farmer, advisor, agriculture commodity trader, etc.).

Although few dispute the statements that ‘farming is the most weather-sensitive occupation’ and that ‘the agricultural industry is the most responsive to vari-abilities in weather and climate’, the attempts to es-tablish special weather services for agriculture have not been completely successful. The reason why the weather service programmes for agriculture, follow-ing the pilot programme in the lower Mississippi, have never been expanded in the US is not obvious, ac-cording to Decker (1994), but lack of coordination and cooperation may be one reason. Lack of inter-ministerial cooperation has been reported in Africa, Asia and Latin America by the Cooperative Institute for Applied Meteorology, even for countries where the Meteorological Service is part of the Ministry of Agriculture. A similar situation was also reported for the Soviet Union Meteorological Service by Kogan (1986).

On the other hand, the effect of a cooperative ef-fort between the Meteorological Service and the Soil Conservation Service (Ministry of Agriculture) in pro-viding a farmer-specialized agricultural meteorologi-cal forecasting, information and advisory service has been reported from Israel (A. Cohen, personal com-munication). The farmers from the Central Coastal Plain showed considerable interest in using general and 4-day medium range forecasts along with farming advice provided by the soil conservation extension-ist, especially during the rainy season (October–May). The interest of the farmers can be measured by the number of calls seeking detailed information recorded at the local office of the Agrometeorological Informa-tion Service as shown in Fig. 1.

The Agricultural Meteorological Information Ser-vice was introduced in 1985 and within the first 3 years changed from a frost advisory to a general agro-climate warning and advisory service. Requests for advisories during the first decade reached a peak of more than 100,000 per season (400–500 per day) and dropped to about 90,000 during the last few years. Recent general forecasting by the various television channels may have contributed to the 10% drop in farmers’ demand for agricultural meteorological advi-sories. During rainy spells there is an increase in calls. A nominal telephone charge is paid by the farmer.

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Fig. 1. Number of requests for detailed agricultural meteorological advisories from the Soil Conservation Service, of the Ministry of Agriculture, for the central coastal plain of Israel during 1985/1986 to 1997/1998.

Following this long term experiment, the service has expanded to most other agricultural regions in Is-rael. However, the quality of the information service depends on the professionals who do the job. Spe-cial training courses in agrometeorology have been provided for the Soil Conservation Service Exten-sionists. These individuals must be willing to work at unconventional hours.

Overproduction of some basic agricultural com-modities and the financial implications of storage cost may be another reason for the lack of fund-ing of a service which aims to increase agricul-tural production. However, the lack of adequately trained personnel at all levels, especially in the agri-cultural and hortiagri-cultural industry, may be another major stumbling block to the application of agricul-tural meteorology. Wieringa (1996) showed that in the Netherlands, where prognostic information and data are available by data link, hardly any of sev-eral hundred farm counsellors have subscribed to the Netherlands Service at a cost of 200 Ecu/year. Several reasons can be postulated for this situation in a technologically highly developed agricultural economy:

1. The counsellors consider weather unimportant; 2. Management applications are not available;

3. The counsellors know too little about meteorology to appreciate or apply such information.

Wieringa (1996) concluded that the lack of knowl-edge of meteorology is the most likely reason. Such is the situation for 19 countries of Western Europe as well as in the US (Perry, 1994). The lack of economic justification for the application of weather information to agricultural practices maybe another aspect (Maun-der, 1989). In Israel, for example, as long as the cost of water was fairly low, there was no economic bene-fit to using agricultural meteorological information for the management of irrigation. However, as the price of water rose an ever increasing number of farmers turned to the irrigation management information ser-vice (Lomas, 1996). Thus, there seem to be a number of reasons for the lack of use of Agricultural Meteoro-logical Services by the weather sensitive agricultural community:

1. The lack of cooperation between the institutions providing information and relevant advisories and those responsible for their transfer to the farming community;

2. Insufficient education and training of the user com-munity, including the farm advisory services that provide specific agricultural advice from general weather information;

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3. Absence of an economic benefit for the application of agricultural meteorological advisories.

Because the private sector is generally not well aware of the benefits of agricultural meteorology, it is not generally willing to contribute to professional education and training in the discipline.

The current status of education and training of agri-cultural meteorology personnel are discussed in Sec-tion 4 to examine the major constraints limiting an adequate level and satisfactory quality of agricultural meteorology personnel.

4. Current status

4.1. Academic institutions

Agricultural meteorology as a subject is taught at the undergraduate level at one university in Africa, the University of the Orange Free State in South Africa. A number of universities, provide agricultural meteo-rology as a major leading to an M.Sc. degree and at some universities to a Ph.D. degree.

It is of interest to note that in most of the quoted uni-versities M.Sc. and Ph.D. degrees in agricultural me-teorology are in agriculture and not in meme-teorology or atmospheric sciences. It is, therefore, natural that the graduates continue their professional activities in the

Fig. 2. Scientific references used by Decker (1994) in his analysis of agrometeorological developments in the US.

field of agriculture and the biological sciences. This can be demonstrated by an analysis of the 80 refer-ences used in the review of 200 years of the develop-ment of agricultural meteorology in the US (Decker, 1994; see Fig. 2). Of course, many of the graduates move on to careers which are not recognised as agri-cultural meteorology: the influence of their training is then difficult to identify, but it must indirectly provide a substantial contribution to the development of the discipline.

The dominant contribution to the development of agricultural meteorology comes from agronomy. If one considers that the scientific reports from the exper-imental stations (20%) are mainly from agricultural faculties of the various universities, the agricultural scientific community contributes 57% of the research ‘effort’, with an input of only 16% from the meteo-rological research community. There are, of course, exceptions where graduates of meteorology (physics and mathematics at the B.Sc. or M.Sc. level) have continued their education in agricultural meteorology (at the M.Sc. or Ph.D. level) mainly in the field of soil–plant–atmosphere continuum and environmental physics. A clear approach can be noted in India where agrometeorology has been accepted as a subject un-der agricultural science by the Indian Council of Agri-cultural Research and Education (ICAR). The council has identified ‘agricultural meteorology’ as a priority

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subject and has encouraged the establishment of sep-arate departments of agricultural meteorology in state agricultural universities. There are some 8–10 such departments in India and the ICAR is also operating a National Coordinated Project on agricultural mete-orology in the different state agricultural universities. An interesting new development in agricultural meteorology has been the concept of cooperation between African universities and universities of the industrialised world (Stigter et al., 1995). The aim of this so-called Picnic Model for postgraduate edu-cation and training was to strengthen the sustainable research capacity of African universities (Olufayo et al., 1998). The overall agricultural meteorological field of research and application chosen to test the model was Traditional Techniques of Microclimatic Improvement (TTMI).

The two stage project commenced in 1985 and was completed in 1998. It involved the Agricultural University of Wageningen, The Netherlands and four universities in Africa, i.e. the University of Nairobi, Kenya; the University of Dar-es-Salaam, Tanzania; the University of Gezira, Sudan and Ahmadu Bello University, Nigeria. During this period, Ph.D. and M.Sc. degrees have been locally granted. An evalu-ation workshop was held in Nairobi in 1994 (Stigter et al., 1995).

The Picnic Model of research education and train-ing is aimed at research in a student’s home coun-try but the data analysis and the preparation of the thesis was done at Wageningen Agricultural Univer-sity. The model exemplifies a cooperative effort in post graduate inter-university research. Its strength is that the national agricultural problems and needs of the developing countries determine the selection of research topics. Such an approach strengthens the university department where the research is carried out and therefore contributes to building human ca-pacity, know-how and inter-departmental cooperation and world-wide networking, as well as providing ad-ditional research equipment in an environment where it will be understood and properly used.

Stigter et al. (1995) suggested that some rules have to be followed for viable and sustainable collabora-tion in research and educacollabora-tion. A realistic assessment is essential of the contribution of such an effort to the national research and training priorities, as well as of the infrastructural carrying capacity of the assisted

university. Finally, the cooperative inter-university programme has from the outset to consider the process of phasing out the expatriate element and the institu-tionalisation of the research within the framework of the assisted university. The replacement of external material support has to be given serious consideration. Indeed, the ultimate objective of strengthening local research and educational capacity has been achieved only if its utility is so well recognised that it receives adequate local resources to maintain it. Reaching this state is often slow, and external support of some kind may well be required for a substantial period before a new group is truly viable.

4.2. In-service training centres

In-service training (training received from time to time during the course of employment) plays a sig-nificant role in updating National Meteorological and Hydrological Service (NMHS) personnel with recent technologies and methods of data acquisition and anal-ysis and in refreshing the knowledge and skills gained by agricultural meteorology personnel a long time ago. Numerous in-service training facilities exist at meteorological services for the different levels. Syl-labi drawn up primarily for meteorology profession-als have been published by WMO and teaching mate-rial has been published. WMO recognizes 19 Regional Meteorological Training Centres (RMTCs) which pro-vide training facilities for member countries in various fields of meteorology, including agricultural meteorol-ogy and in various languages. WMO RMTCs where agricultural meteorology courses are offered are lo-cated in Algeria, Argentina, Barbados, Brazil, China, Egypt, India, Iran, Iraq, Israel, Kenya, Niger, Nigeria and the Philippines.

There is considerable heterogeneity between the in-service training courses provided by the different member countries, not only in the syllabus but also in the objective of the training programme and its dura-tion. For technical personnel agricultural meteorology is usually presented as an applied branch of climatol-ogy with a 2 or 3 h overview. For graduate personnel there are in-service training facilities at the national level only in the larger member countries, but they are also found at regional level (Ecole Nationale de la Meteorologie, Toulouse, France; Hydrometeorolog-ical Institute, Odessa, Russia; Indian MeteorologHydrometeorolog-ical

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Department, Pune, India; RMTC, Bet Dagan, Israel; Institute for Meteorological Training, Nairobi, Kenya). Syllabi are more uniform and the specialized curric-ula provided by WMO are usually followed. Teaching material has now been revised and updated and will shortly be published by WMO (Wieringa and Lomas, 1998).

A specialized programme of agricultural meteorol-ogy has been developed by the RMTC at Bet-Dagan, Israel. The training is of relative short duration (4–6 weeks) and is at the postgraduate level. Special atten-tion is paid to the applicaatten-tion of meteorology in the farming community and the demonstration of such

Table 1

The training programmes in agricultural meteorology of seven RMTCsa

Organization Duration For WMO Entry Remarks

(weeks) class requirement Algerie

Inst. Hyd. de formation de recherches 3 II Introductory

Course in Agricultural Meteorology Egypt

RMTC — Cairo

Basic Course in Agricultural Meteorology 26 I I Course for agricultural meteorological

technicians

26 III III

Israel

RMTC — Bet Dagan Annual No. of participants

Agricultural meteorology — Data Base Management 5 I B.Sc. 31

Basic Agricultural Meteorology 6 I B.Sc. 30

Crop Weather Modeling (Specialized course) 5 I M.Sc. 29 Kenya

RMTC — Nairobi

Meteorology with specialization in agricultural meteorology

112 I (M.Sc.) B.Sc. (Hons.) With University Nairobi General Meteorology

Course in basic agricultural meteorology 17 Niger

Centre Regional Agricultural Meteorology 112 III Matriculation Specialized observers Course for agricultural meteorology technicians

Nigeria

RMTC — Lagos 164 I (Ph.D.) M.Sc. With University of Akure, Ondo

State Meteorology with specialization in

agricultural meteorology Russia

RMTC — Kuchino, Moscow Use of aerospace information in agricultural meteorology

2 I–II B.Sc., M.Sc. Specialized a_{No statistical information is available of the number of trainees, or the programmes followed.}

practices under field conditions. The training pro-gramme has been operational for 30 years with fairly good results. The training programme provides four specialized courses:

1. Basic Agricultural Meteorology — for beginners; 2. Data Base Management — for agroclimatologists; 3. Modeling in agricultural meteorology — for

ad-vanced professionals;

4. Hydrometeorology — for water resource man-agers.

Table 1 presents a summary of a recently published (WMO, 1997, personal communication.) information report on the training programmes of eight RMTCs. In

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seven out of the eight RMTCs agricultural meteorolog-ical training is provided. However, the level of instruc-tion and the target populainstruc-tion is extremely different.

Basically four main types of training and education in agricultural meteorology can be noted in Table 1. 1. Academic instruction in Kenya and Nigeria,

lead-ing to an M.Sc. or Ph.D. degree in Meteorology, with specialization in agricultural meteorology (in cooperation with the Universities);

2. Courses in agricultural meteorology in Egypt, Is-rael and Kenya, providing a basic background of the interrelationship between climate and agricul-tural production;

3. Some specialized short duration courses in Algeria and Russia;

4. Training of agricultural meteorological technicians as is the case in Egypt and Niger.

4.3. Summary of the current status

From an analysis of the education and training fa-cilities of the academic institutions and the in-service facilities, the following conclusions can be drawn: 1. Agricultural meteorology is a post graduate subject

at the M.Sc. as well as the Ph.D. level at some academic institutions. One university offers it at the undergraduate level (University of the Orange Free State);

2. Where available the post graduate studies are usu-ally to be found in the Agronomy department of universities although some universities have it in other departments (e.g. Department of Meteorol-ogy — Reading University, Department of Atmo-spheric sciences — University of Missouri, Depart-ment of Physics — University of Zimbabwe); 3. The number of graduates studying agricultural

me-teorology is small in comparison to other graduate subjects as the demand for agricultural meteoro-logical scientists is small when compared to other fields;

4. In-service training facilities provide training of meteorological personnel in agricultural meteorol-ogy, especially in the larger weather services; 5. Training is extremely heterogeneous and varies

from one country centre to another;

6. At RMTCs, training is provided for academic as well as technical personnel;

7. Very little instruction in agricultural meteorology is provided to the agronomy community; thus, the potential user groups of agricultural meteorolog-ical information lack sufficient understanding of agricultural meteorology in order to make use of the information provided. This seems clear from a recent survey by the European Commission of 19 countries of Western Europe (Wieringa, 1996) and means that we must provide programmes not only for the specialists in our subject but also for the much wider range of people who must understand the specialists’ messages in order to act effectively upon them.

5. Constraints in human resource development in agricultural meteorology

The constraints of education and training pro-grammes, especially in developing countries, may include the following:

1. A rigid ‘two tier’ curriculum in academic institu-tions at post graduate level;

2. Lack of systematic follow-up, and of evaluation of post-training performance, especially in in-service training;

3. Poor selection of candidates for agricultural me-teorology training programmes (selection is often made on the basis of seniority or personal contacts rather than relevance and objectivity) indicating an inadequate training policy at the organisational level;

4. Diminishing financial resources.

6. Agricultural meteorology — future needs

6.1. Future needs — academic institutions

Agricultural meteorology has advanced during the last 100 years from a descriptive to a quantitative science using physical and biological principles. The operational application of agricultural meteorology has, however, lagged behind due to a lack of co-operation between the agricultural services and an unconvinced farming community. Furthermore, in most of the developed world overproduction of some of the agricultural commodities and a growing

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interest in rural ecology dampened the interest and use of agricultural meteorological services that were ‘tai-lor made’ for maximum production. The development of effective agricultural meteorological education pro-grammes remains a challenge for the 21st century. It is important that these be developed for specific cir-cumstances, as the requirements in different regions differ substantially.

Models of agricultural meteorological programmes have been prepared in the past by Robertson (1980), and for pest management by Omar (1980). The eco-nomic impact of agricultural meteorology was dis-cussed by McQuigg (1975). It seems that in the future the demand for such programmes will come mainly from the developing countries. There is an urgent need to prepare a syllabus acceptable to the academic institutions for use in the training of agricultural ex-tension and farm advisory officers: for this, the new WMO Guide-lines for Education (WMO, 2000) could be used as a reference. Most agricultural extension personnel are more frequently in contact with the farming community than most agricultural meteorol-ogists. The acceptance by the farming community of the agrometeorological products is, therefore, depen-dent on an understanding and cooperative extension service (Perry, 1994).

Prior to designing training programmes in agricul-tural meteorology it is necessary to ascertain the needs of the target group. Having identified, verified and placed the training needs in some form of priority, writing of instructional objectives follows. The suc-cess of a training programme will depend on how well the objectives are identified and documented (Gagne and Briggs, 1979).

Due to diminishing financial resources for agricul-tural meteorology training purposes, there is an urgent need for institutions in developed countries to conduct training programmes in collaboration with developing nations’ institutions as already demonstrated by the TTMI project. This will help maximise the resources available because there are training programmes in developed countries specially tailored for developing countries. There is a need to reassess the capacity of the training institutions in developing nations to con-duct such joint ventures. The TTMI evaluation reports could be used as a starting point (Stigter et al., 1995). Development of linkages between universities in a region to share course components and graduate

research opportunities should be explored as well. There are several ways in which such arrangements can be achieved. Firstly, a student could visit a co-operating institution and take courses not available at his/her home institution. Secondly, an institution could offer a series of short courses for credit and invite stu-dents for a few weeks to take these courses. In a similar manner, cooperative agreements could be established between institutions in various countries to work together in the education of students (Blad, 1994).

Blad (1994) questioned whether or not there should be an undergraduate major in agricultural meteorol-ogy in the US. He concluded that one was probably not needed yet, but it is a question that should be given careful examination over the next decade or two. Agricultural meteorologists should, however, be actively involved in B.Sc. degree programmes and in related disciplines that help prepare students for grad-uate studies in agricultural meteorology. Introductory undergraduate courses will stimulate both interest in agricultural meteorology and educate students in basic principles required for making rational and educated decisions about agricultural, environmental and other issues of importance to society today and in the fu-ture. The University of Dar-es-Salaam, Tanzania, for example, offers environmental physics and instrumen-tation as such introductory courses. The University of the Orange Free State (South Africa) already offers an undergraduate agricultural meteorology major, al-though it registers few students each academic year. The provision of such courses needs staff of consider-able experience, enthusiasm and dedication since they are likely to be working in a department whose gen-eral thrust is far from their own scientific background. Evaluation is an extremely important feature of any education or training programme and should be performed for all agricultural meteorology training programmes to determine the extent to which the objectives have been achieved. Training evaluation involves a systematic collection of descriptive and judgemental information necessary to make effective decisions related to the selection, adoption, value and modification of various instructional activities. This information plays a key role in quality control of the training system by providing feedback on the effectiveness of the training methods being used, the achievement of the objectives by both trainees and trainers and whether the needs originally identified

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at the institutional and individual level have been satisfied.

6.2. Future needs — service institutions

The scientific manpower requirements for agricul-tural meteorology are small when compared with the requirements for agronomy or other fields. The small size makes the field of agricultural meteorology par-ticularly vulnerable to financial cuts by governments. Consequently, it is likely that this interdisciplinary science will be exposed to a reduction in financial allocations, and that there will be attempts to com-bine training facilities with other related sciences (Environmental or Plant Physiology/Agronomy) or to reduce the number of institutions providing education and training in agricultural meteorology. Should such a situation occur, the number of research and ser-vice personnel dedicated to agricultural meteorology will be reduced, especially in the developed world. In-service training programmes need to prepare in-dividuals to deal with the challenges. In addition, an infrastructure needs to be developed to deliver the products to the farmer.

The future for agricultural meteorology depends, to a large extent, on having scientifically concerned and informed citizens who recognize the critical role that agricultural meteorologists play in meeting crit-ical challenges facing all nations (Blad, 1994). This calls for user education. Permanent representatives with WMO should get involved in policy discus-sions at the national level. This activity will not only make policy-makers aware of the value of agricul-tural meteorology, but it can help to develop policy and legislation that uses the expertise of agricultural meteorologists.

To emphasize the wide range of problems where agricultural meteorologists can help to find solutions, we can categorize them as follows: this is a list of the services which will be required by agriculture for the 21st century.

1. Long-term planning, which includes 1.1. Climate risk analysis;

1.2. Impact of climate change and variability; 1.3. Environmental degradation assessment and

avoidance;

1.4. Ecosystem sustainability; 1.5. Drought preparedness.

2. Methodological recommendations, which include 2.1. Storage and transport;

2.2. Optimum time for planting, weeding fertiliz-ing, etc;

2.3. Microclimate and topoclimate modifications; 2.4. Soil moisture management;

2.5. Water supply maintenance, including water quality.

3. Operational decisions, which include 3.1. Current production forecasting; 3.2. Irrigation scheduling;

3.3. Pest, disease and weed control.

Under these headings, the subject areas are common to countries at all stages of development, but the priorities and specific applications obviously vary very widely.

7. Future outlook

We assume that, except for subsistence agriculture, the major aim of agricultural meteorology is to as-sist the agricultural industry to produce commodities economically and to reduce risk. The system thus de-signed must be sustainable in time, and the first step must be to rectify the lack of knowledge of agricultural meteorology at all levels in the agricultural and horti-cultural industry. This may be difficult, as education-alists consider that teaching meteorology is for mete-orologists only. The growing interest in sustainability and ecology may be an appropriate time to introduce some basic agricultural meteorology in the syllabus of agronomy faculties of universities and agricultural colleges. With this objective in mind an international effort should be made by WMO/FAO/UNESCO to hold regional workshops on the application of agri-cultural meteorology to agriagri-cultural planning and technology, primarily for educationalists (university department heads and directors of agricultural col-leges). The objective of such workshops should be to demonstrate that some 35% of the inter-annual vari-ability in crop yields is due to climatic variations and another 10–15% to the interaction between climate and planting dates, fertilizer applications and pest and disease control: it is by anticipating the effects of climatic variability that the application of agricultural meteorology can help to minimise risk and maximise economic benefits. Such workshops should also be

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used to discuss a minimum syllabus requirement at both the university and agricultural college level.

It is expected that in the universities of developed countries, where possible, agricultural meteorology will be placed in departments of environmental sci-ences (as is done, for example, at Wageningen Agri-cultural University) and not in the crop sciences as in the past. This will lead to greater emphasis on natural and managed ecosystems and much less emphasis on crop production. The need for agricultural meteoro-logical graduates in the developing world is expected to increase because of the economic importance of the agricultural sector of the national economy. There is an urgent need for national efforts in these countries to improve the coordination between the meteorological services and the agricultural extension and research departments (usually found in different ministries), to educate the agricultural/horticultural community and demonstrate the application of already available knowledge of agricultural meteorology at both the planning and technology application stages. Basic instruction in elementary meteorology is lacking in educational programmes of weather and climate sen-sitive professions such as agriculture. Consequently, it is necessary to develop teaching material in agricul-tural meteorology that is suitably balanced between the physical and biological sciences for agronomists and farm advisors. This must include material suit-able for technicians in training as well as students in more academic programmes.

NMHSs need to develop an agricultural meteo-rological information and advisory service which is meaningful and applicable to the farming community, and to develop individuals who are suitably quali-fied to present such a service. In many instances the services provided are a by-product of the weather and climate information available, irrespective of the specific needs and requirements of the crops and oper-ations being carried out in agriculture. A good exam-ple of a meaningful agricultural meteorological data base, farmer friendly, and applicable is the Agrocli-matic Atlas of Ireland (Collins and Cummings, 1996). Maps, for example, that show the mean distribution of accumulated potential water deficits for the most active growth period (May–August) and for the whole year allow an estimate to be made of ‘windows of opportunity’ for successful on-farm operations, such as late season harvesting, autumn/winter sowing, and

fertilizer applications. Maps showing the beginning, the end and the duration of the active grass grow-ing season are a practical guide to pasture and herd management. The publication is a joint effort of the working group on applied agricultural meteorology including the Meteorological Service, the Agricultural Advisory Service, the Geological Survey, the office of Public Works and the universities and colleges.

In 1992 the American Society of Agronomy re-viewed the past, present and future of agrometeorol-ogy in the US in view of the concern for education, research and services in agricultural meteorology. The summary of the papers presented at this meeting was reported by Hollinger (1994). Hollinger concluded that when the agricultural community becomes more aware that using climate and weather information will improve their profitability, there will be a greater de-mand for agricultural meteorological services. These services will include the provision of high quality real time weather data, more descriptive and accu-rate agricultural-oriented weather forecasts, and agri-cultural meteorology consulting for the agriagri-cultural community.

Commercialisation and ‘contracting out’ are new influences changing traditional modes of operation of NMHSs. How to package and sell agricultural meteorological products requires commercial skills by future agricultural meteorologist working in a competitive free market. Such changes were noted by Tennekes (1988) following developments in the UK and in Sweden. Additional educational and train-ing efforts will therefore be necessary in business practices and marketing disciplines.

Education and training can no longer be seen as a one time effort. Knowledge and skills acquisitions must be viewed as an ongoing process throughout a person’s career. This has been recognised by the pro-fessional institutes, where there is increased emphasis on Continued Professional Development. It is also in this light that Competency Based Training (CBT) should be considered, especially in applied agri-cultural meteorology. In some countries it involves a shift from an ‘Educational’ model to a ‘Market’ model where training is based on the requirements of the customer (the farming community) and the demonstration of ‘skills’. Educational and vocational training initiatives in meteorology have recently been reviewed by Mottram (1995).

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Finally, although an initial effort has been made to survey the effect/impact of education and train-ing in agricultural meteorology on the individual (trainee) and on the institution where he/she works (Lomas, 1999), the evaluation programme needs fur-ther detailed follow up, immediately following an educational or training event, and again 4–5 years later. Such an evaluation would indicate the extent to which the event’s objectives have been met. Also the relative priority subject areas, the methodology of instruction, the teaching capacity, etc. need to be evaluated. As we move into the 21st century it is vital to analyse the results of the efforts during the last 10 years in order to plan more confidently for the future. Further, it is important to learn how many of the individuals who have been trained remain in the field, and how many are systematically passing their specialist knowledge on to their subordinates and successors.

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