Sumber: Dinas Pertanian Sumatera Utara

  

Lampiran 1. Luas Panen, Produksi, dan Rata-Rata Produksi Jagung Menurut

Kabupaten/Kota di Sumatera Utara Tahun 2011 Kabupaten/Kota Luas Panen Produksi Rata-rata

  Produksi (ha) (ton) (kw/ha) Kabupaten N i a s

  36 127 35,39 Mandailing Natal 1.267 5.283 41,69 Tapanuli Selatan 2.149 12.463

  58 Tapanuli Tengah 1.573 6.358 40,42 Tapanuli Utara 4.027 15.470 38,42 Toba Samosir 4.818 24.201 50,23 Labuhanbatu 870 3.403 39,11 A s a h a n 5.947 18.962 31,89 Simalungun 64.935 371.070 57,14 Dairi 35.249 149.500 42,41 Karo 65.318 369.848 56,62 Deli Serdang 23.204 85.405 36,81 Langkat 17.671 121.803 68,93 Nias Selatan 420 1.568 37,34 Humbang Hasundutan 926 2.827 30,52 Pakpak Bharat 3.052 12.128 39,74 Samosir 2.941 9.224 31,36 Serdang Bedagai 11.642 43.426 37,3 Batu Bara 1.750 8.139 46,51 Padang Lawas Utara 428 1.524 35,6 Padang Lawas 648 2.405 37,11 Labuhanbatu Selatan 926 3.915 42,28 Labuhanbatu Utara 929 4.066 43,77 Nias Utara 119 406 34,1 Nias Barat

  34 120 35,21 Kota

Sibolga - - -

Tanjungbalai

  

19

60 31,56 Pematangsiantar 2.922 14.966 51,22 Tebing Tinggi 38 112 29,36 M e d a n 265 997 37,61 B i n j a i 870 3.226 37,08 Padangsidimpuan 242 1.449 59,87 Gunungsitoli 56 194 34,71 Sumatera Utara

   255.291 1.294.645 50,71 Sumber : www.bps.go.id Lampiran 2. Penawaran Jagung di Sumatera Utara Tahun 2003-2012 Tahun Penawaran Jagung (Ton) Total (Ton) Produksi Ekspor Import Stok

  

2003 687.360 930,375 149.477,531 45.835 881.742,156

2004 712.560 2.846,095 138.951,065 107.642 956.306,970

2005 735.456 354,000 15.534,457 202.093 952.729,457

2006 682.024 225,000 145.215,395 101.685 928.699,395

2007 804.850 5.273,153 55.064,975 27.127 881.768,822

2008 1.098.969 314,476 40.519,017 91.202 1.230.375,541

2009 1.166.548 179,479 102.475,113 466.224

  1.735.067,634

2010 1.377.718 212,705 100.846,810 409.013 1.887.365,105

2011 1.294.645 416,631 305.818,856 455.184 2.055.231,225

2012 1.369.090 386,000 217.083,050 512.875 2.098.662,050

Sumber : Produksi,Ekspor,Impor ; Badan Pusat Statistik Sumatera Utara, Stok ; Badan Ketahanan Pangan Sumatera Utara

  Lampiran 3. Permintaan Jagung di Sumatera Utara Tahun 2003-2012 Tahun Permintaan Jagung (Ton) konsumsi+industri

  2003 750.000 2004 780.000 2005 858.000 2006 760.000 2007 780.000 2008 790.098 2009 801.891 2010 755.717 2011 982.731 2012 1.046.816

  Sumber : Badan Ketahanan Pangan Sumatera Utara

  Lampiran 4. Harga Jagung Tingkat Produsen di Sumatera Utara Tahun 2003-2012 Tahun Harga Jagung (Rp/ton)

  2003 1.024.000 2004 1.175.000 2005 1.348.000 2006 1.360.000 2007 1.722.000 2008 2.245.000 2009 2.605.000 2010 2.797.000 2011 3.006.000 2012 2.708.000

Sumber: Dinas Pertanian Sumatera Utara

  Lampiran 5. Harga Eceran Urea di Sumatera Utara Tahun 2003-2012 Tahun Harga Eceran Urea (Rp/ton)

  2003 1.532.540 2004 1.642.850 2005 1.772.920 2006 2.007.570 2007 1.974.800 2008 2.290.770 2009 1.830.070 2010 3.485.400 2011 3.605.000 2012 6.717.000

  Sumber : Badan Pusat Statistik Sumatera Utara

  Lampiran 6. Jumlah Perusahaan Pakan Ternak di Sumatera Utara Tahun 2003- 2012 Tahun Jumlah perusahaan pakan(unit)

  2003

  6 2004 6 2005 6 2006 7 2007 7 2008 7 2009 7 2010 7 2011 8 2012

  10 Sumber : Dinas Peternakan Sumatera Utara Lampiran 7. Hasil Analisis Regresi Faktor-faktor yang mempengaruhi Penawaran Jagung di Sumatera Utara b Variables Entered/Removed

  Model Variables Entered Variables Removed Method 1 penawaransebelum, hargaureasebelum, . Enter

  a

  hargajagungsebelum a. All requested variables entered.

  b. Dependent Variable: penawaran

  b

Model Summary

  Change Statistics Adjusted R Std. Error of R Square Sig. F

  Model R R Square Square the Estimate Change F Change df1 df2 Change

  a

  1 .984 .968 .948 1.188708E5 .968 49.803

  3 5 .000

  a. Predictors: (Constant), penawaransebelum , hargaureasebelum, hargajagungsebelum b. Dependent Variable: penawaran

  

b

ANOVA Model Sum of Squares df Mean Square F Sig. a

  1 Regression 2.111E12 3 7.037E11 49.803 .000 Residual 7.065E10 5 1.413E10 Total 2.182E12

  8

  a. Predictors: (Constant), penawaransebelum , hargaureasebelum, hargajagungsebelum, b. Dependent Variable: penawaran

  

Coefficients

a

  1Correlations penawaransebelum 1.000 -.257 -.829 hargaureasebelum -.257 1.000 -.231 hargajagungsebelum -.829 -.231 1.000

  (Constant) hargajagung sebelum hargaureas ebelum penawaran sebelum

  Index Variance Proportions

  Model Dimension Eigenvalue Condition

  Collinearity Diagnostics a

  a. Dependent Variable: penawaran

  Covariances penawaransebelum .077 -.007 -.040 hargaureasebelum -.007 .010 -.004 hargajagungsebelum -.040 -.004 .030

  Model penawaransebelum hargaureasebelum hargajagungsebelu m

  Model Unstandardized

  Coefficient Correlations a

  a. Dependent Variable: penawaran

  VIF 1 (Constant) 123590.050 130041.844 .950 .386 hargajagungsebelum .656 .175 .948 3.756 .013 .102 9.833 hargaureasebelum -.045 .099 -.067 -.459 .666 .303 3.298 penawaransebelum .104 .277 .095 .375 .723 .100 9.967

  Collinearity Statistics B Std. Error Beta Tolerance

  Coefficients t Sig.

  Coefficients Standardized

  1 1 3.894 1.000 .01 .00 .00 .00 2 .079 7.041 .86 .02 .01 .01 3 .021 13.469 .11 .08 .99 .06 4 .006 24.723 .02 .90 .00 .93 a. Dependent Variable: penawaran a. Dependent Variable: penawaran

  9

  9 Stud. Residual -1.410 1.496 -.078 1.085

  9 Centered Leverage Value .073 .828 .333 .223

  9 Cook's Distance .013 7.614 .966 2.496

  9 Mahal. Distance .586 6.621 2.667 1.780

  9 Stud. Deleted Residual -1.625 1.801 -.068 1.208

  4 2.723616E5

  2.273641E5

  9 Deleted Residual

  9 Std. Residual -1.170 1.171 .000 .791

  Residuals Statistics a

  1.391515E5 .000000 9.397564E4

  9 Residual - 1.390261E5

  9 Adjusted Predicted Value 7.28943E5 2.56444E6 1.47360E6 6.334455E5

  5.103E4 1.152E5 7.721E4 18956.374

  9 Standard Error of Predicted Value

  9 Std. Predicted Value -1.162 1.422 .000 1.000

  Minimum Maximum Mean Std. Deviation N Predicted Value 8.17156E5 2.14464E6 1.41402E6 5.137126E5

• 5.957535E
• 6.770788E5

  

One-Sample Kolmogorov-Smirnov Test

  hargajagungs hargaurease penawarans penawaran ebelum belum ebelum N

  9

  9

  9

  9

  a

  Normal Parameters Mean 1.41402E6 1.92022E6 2.23799E6 1.27881E6 Std. Deviation 5.222376E5 7.550831E5 7.733399E5 4.785270E5

  Most Extreme Absolute .254 .215 .284 .305 Differences

  Positive .254 .215 .284 .305 Negative -.175 -.151 -.181 -.203

  Kolmogorov-Smirnov Z .762 .646 .851 .916 Asymp. Sig. (2-tailed) .607 .798 .463 .371 a. Test distribution is Normal.

  Lampiran 8. Hasil Analisis Regresi Faktor-faktor yang mempengaruhi Permintaan Jagung di Sumatera Utara Variables Entered/Removed b

  .687 .499 74306.67380 .687 3.653

  a. Predictors: (Constant), permintaansebelum, hargajagungsekarang jumlahindustripakan

  8

  Residual 2.761E10 5 5.521E9 Total 8.811E10

  a

  1 Regression 6.051E10 3 2.017E10 3.653 .099

  ANOVA

b

Model Sum of Squares df Mean Square F Sig.

  a. Predictors: (Constant), permintaansebelum, hargajagungsekarang jumlahindustripakan b. Dependent Variable: permintaan

  3 5 .099

  a

  Model Variables Entered Variables Removed Method 1 permintaansebelum, hargajagungsekarang, jumlahindustripakan

  Sig. F Change 1 .829

  Square Change F Change df1 df2

  Change Statistics R

  Square Std. Error of the Estimate

  Model R R Square Adjusted R

  

Model Summary

b

  b. Dependent Variable: permintaan

  . Enter a. All requested variables entered.

  a

  b. Dependent Variable: permintaan

  a

Coefficients

  Unstandardized Standardized Coefficients Coefficients Collinearity Statistics

  Model B Std. Error Beta t Sig. Tolerance

  VIF 1(Constant) 600415.540 348387.687 1.723 .145 hargajagungsekarang -.036 .059 -.243 -.603 .573 .384 2.601 jumlahindustripakan 114022.421 56241.635 1.306 2.027 .098 .151 6.620 permintaansebelum -.631 .725 -.443 -.871 .424 .243 4.122 a. Dependent Variable: permintaan

  a Coefficient Correlations

  permintaan hargajagung Model sebelum sekarang jumlahindustripakan

  1 Correlations permintaansebelum 1.000 .589 -.862 hargajagungsekarang .589 1.000 -.770 jumlahindustripakan -.862 -.770 1.000

  Covariances permintaansebelum .525 .025 -35147.236 hargajagungsekarang .025 .004 -2576.129 jumlahindustripakan -35147.236 -2576.129 3.163E9

  a. Dependent Variable: permintaan

  a Collinearity Diagnostics

  Variance Proportions Condition hargajagung jumlahindustr permintaan

  Model Dimension Eigenvalue Index (Constant) sekarang ipakan sebelum

  1 1 3.929 1.000 .00 .00 .00 .00 2 .060 8.075 .01 .41 .00 .00 3 .009 20.649 .24 .15 .20 .00 4 .001 60.684 .75 .43 .80 .99 a. Dependent Variable: permintaan

  Residuals Statistics a

  Minimum Maximum Mean Std. Deviation N Predicted Value 7.4404E5 1.0235E6 8.3947E5 86966.38227

  9 Std. Predicted Value -1.097 2.116 .000 1.000

  9 Standard Error of Predicted Value

  2.764E4 7.054E4 4.815E4 12345.149

  9 Adjusted Predicted Value 6.9295E5 9.0740E5 8.1283E5 58736.96971

  9 Residual -7.72811E4 1.13960E5 .00000 58744.58364

  9 Std. Residual -1.040 1.534 .000 .791

  9 Stud. Residual -1.335 1.846 .087 1.073

  9 Deleted Residual -1.27404E5 2.36257E5 2.66387E4 1.28580E5

  9 Stud. Deleted Residual -1.489 2.924 .211 1.349

  9 Mahal. Distance .218 6.320 2.667 1.799

  9 Cook's Distance .001 2.278 .440 .728

  9 Centered Leverage Value .027 .790 .333 .225

  9

  a. Dependent Variable: permintaan

  One-Sample Kolmogorov-Smirnov Test

  permintaan hargajagungse karang jumlahindu stripakan permintaan sebelum

  N

  9

  9

  9

  9 Normal Parameters

  a

  Mean 8.3947E5 2.1073E6 7.2222

  806493.00

  00 Std. Deviation 1.04948E5 7.12696E5 1.20185

  73601.797

  27 Most Extreme Differences Absolute .307 .202 .351 .303 Positive .307 .186 .351 .303 Negative -.212 -.202 -.204 -.221

  Kolmogorov-Smirnov Z .920 .606 1.053 .908 Asymp. Sig. (2-tailed) .366 .856 .217 .382 a. Test distribution is Normal.

  

Lampiran 9. Hasil Analisis Regresi Harga Terhadap Penawaran Jagung di

Sumatera Utara Tahun 2003-2012

b

  Variables Entered/Removed

  Model Variables Entered Variables Removed Method

  a

  1 hargajagungsebelum . Enter a. All requested variables entered.

  b. Dependent Variable: penawaran

  Model Summary

  Model R R Square Adjusted R Square Std. Error of the Estimate

  a

  1 .984 .969 .965 9.715192E4

  a. Predictors: (Constant), hargajagungsebelum

  b ANOVA Model Sum of Squares df Mean Square F Sig. a

  1 Regression 2.361E12 1 2.361E12 250.182 .000 Residual 7.551E10 8 9.438E9 Total 2.437E12

  9

  a. Predictors: (Constant), hargajagungsebelum

  b. Dependent Variable: penawaran

  a Coefficients

  Unstandardized Standardized Coefficients Coefficients Model B Std. Error Beta t Sig.

  1 (Constant) 121047.137 84185.992 1.438 .188 hargajagungsebelum .675 .043 .984 15.817 .000 a. Dependent Variable: penawaran

  

Lampiran 10. Hasil Analisis Regresi Harga Terhadap Permintaan Jagung di

Sumatera Utara b Variables Entered/Removed

  Model Variables Entered Variables Removed Method

  a

  1 hargajagungsekarang . Enter a. All requested variables entered.

  b. Dependent Variable: permintaan

  Model Summary

  Model R R Square Adjusted R Square Std. Error of the Estimate

  a

  1 .545 .297 .210 9.149599E4

  a. Predictors: (Constant), hargajagungsekarang

  b ANOVA Model Sum of Squares df Mean Square F Sig. a

  1 Regression 2.835E10 1 2.835E10 3.386 .103 Residual 6.697E10 8 8.372E9 Total 9.532E10

  9

  a. Predictors: (Constant), hargajagungsekarang

  b. Dependent Variable: permintaan

  a Coefficients

  Unstandardized Standardized Coefficients Coefficients Model B Std. Error Beta t Sig.

  1 (Constant) 681784.717 85855.656 7.941 .000 hargajagungsekarang .074 .040 .545 1.840 .103 a. Dependent Variable: permintaan