Fixed Income Daily Notes

September 17, 2018

Fixed Income Daily Notes
10.00

(-1 day)
7.59
7.84
8.15
8.28
8.44
8.60
8.71
8.73
8.69
8.52
8.74
9.07
9.15

(-1 week)

7.79
7.85
8.10
8.23
8.41
8.51
8.85
8.75
8.65
8.46
8.64
9.09
9.13

(-1 month)
6.83
7.22
7.36
7.56
7.83

7.95
8.02
8.05
8.11
8.03
8.39
8.44
8.54

9.00
Yield (%)

Indonesia Government Bonds Yield
Maturities (Year)
14-Sep
01
7.52
02
7.85
03

8.10
04
8.20
05
8.33
06
8.60
07
8.63
08
8.75
09
8.58
10
8.41
15
8.67
20
8.98
30

9.19
Source: Bloomberg

8.00

7.00

6.00

01

02

03

04

05

06


07

08

09

10

15

20

30

Maturities (Year)
14-Sep

(-1 day)


(-1 week)

(-1 month)

Global Market Update


At Friday, September 14 2018, yield of US
10-years rose until reached 3,0% after one of The
Fed official stated that The Fed possibly more
hawkish than expected. Majority of global
benchmark bond yield also moved upward, indicated by 10-years UK gilt and German Bunds,
which rose to 1.53% and 0.45%.



Yield 10-years US Treasury note pada hari Jum’at, 14
September ditutup naik hingga menyentuh level 3,00%
setelah adanya laporan dari pejabat The Fed bahwa
The Fed mungkin akan menaikan tingkat suku bunga

lebih agresif daripada yang diperkirakan. Pada pasar
obligasi global, mayoritas yield acuan global juga
ditutup mengalami kenaikan, terlihat dari yield 10
tahun UK Gilt dan German Bunds yang ditutup naik ke
level 1,53% dan 0,45%.



Lembaga perating dunia, Moody’s, memperkirakan
adanya penyempitan defisit neraca perdagangan
Indonesia Bulan Agustus 2018 menjadi USD 1,09 miliar
yang didorong oleh perkiraan impor yang masih tinggi.
Namun, Moody’s memperkirakan akan adanya
perbaikan neraca perdagangan pada 3 bulan ke depan
karena sudah berlakunya implementasi kebijakan
pemerintah dalam memperbaiki transkasi berjalan,
seperti penundaan proyek infrastruktur pemerintah
yang membutuhkan bahan baku impor.




Hari ini, pergerakan harga SBN secara umum di pasar
sekunder diprediksi cenderung melemah akibat
kenaikan yield AS hingga menyentuh 3,0%. Nilai tukar
rupiah terhadap dolar AS diprediksi bergerak pada
kisaran Rp14.768 – Rp14.848 sedangkan yield
benchmark 10 tahun (FR0064) pada perdagangan hari
ini diperkirakan bergerak di rentang 8,37% - 8,49%.

Domestic Market Update


World Rating Agency, Moody’s, predicted that
Indonesia Balance of Trade in August would be
still deficit USD 1.09 billion, which was caused by
high import growth. However, in the next 3
month, they predicted that Indonesia Balance of
Trade would move better as impact from policy
implementation to reduce CAD by Government of
Indonesia, such as infrastructure project delaying.




Today, Government bond prices on the secondary
market are likely to weaken because higher US
yield that reached 3.0%. Rupiah will be ranging
from IDR 14,768 - 14,848 and yield of 10 year
benchmark bond (FR0064) will be ranging from
8.37% - 8.49%.

September 17, 2018

Most Active Government Bonds
FR0063
FR0064
FR0070
FR0075
FR0059
FR0068
FR0065

FR0053
FR0056
SPN12190214
Global Stock Marketss
Indonesia (JCI)
Malaysia (KLCI)
Thailand (SET)
Singapore (STI)
Hang Seng
Nikkei 225
Shanghai
Dow Jones (DJIA)
London (FTSE 100)
DAX

Last Price
5931
1804
1722
3161

27286
23095
2682
26155
7304
12124

Last Price

Last Yield

90.05
85.55
100.10
87.50
91.20
96.25
84.51
100.00
99.50
97.62

8.24
8.33
8.35
5.27
8.45
8.82
8.49
8.24
8.46
5.82

Volume
(IDR bn)
1949
1748
1244
886
807
756
467
402
382
360

Chg (bps)
73.01
11.16
4.25
29.65
271.92
273.35
-4.93
8.68
22.47
68.78

% Chg
1.25%
0.62%
0.25%
0.95%
1.01%
1.20%
-0.18%
0.03%
0.31%
0.57%

% YTD
-6.68%
0.39%
-1.80%
-7.1%
-8.8%
1.45%
-18.91%
5.81%
-4.99%
-6.1%

14-Sep
14,808
1.307
112.1
1.374
32.69
4.139

(-1 day)
14,768
1.311
111.9
1.370
32.62
4.151

14-Sep
(-1 week)
14,982
1.292
111.0
1.379
32.85
4.152

Aug-18
-0.05
3.20
2.90
5.50
117.9

Jul-18
0.28
3.18
2.87
5.25
118.3

Jun-18
0.59
3.12
2.72
5.25
119.8

2-year
66.04
66.38
64.71
45.79
32.49

5-year
133.57
134.30
141.32
124.83
94.12

10-year
216.19
217.15
221.26
211.89
163.10

FX Rate
USD/IDR
GBP/USD
USD/JPY
USD/SGD
USD/THB
USD/MYR
Macroeconomic Data
Consumer Price Index (MoM)
Consumer Price Index (YoY)
Core Inflation (YoY)
BI 7-Day RR Rate (%)
Foreign Reserve (US$ Bn)
Indonesia Sovereign CDS
As of
14-Sep
(-1 Day)
(-1 Week)
(-1 Month)
(-1 Year)

Most Active Corporate Bonds
BEXI02BCN7
BEXI04ACN2
BBKP01SBCN1
PPLN11B
MFIN03BCN1
BIIF01ACN4
BNLI01SBCN2
DILD02A
WSKT03ACN2
SMFP03CN6

Last Yield

idAAA
idAAA
idA
idAAA
idA
AA+(idn)
idAA+
idAA-(idn)
idAAA

100.58
100.05
99.50
104.85
100.02
98.79
100.45
101.10
98.50
100.00

7.09
6.47
8.12
8.78
7.75
8.27
7.21
8.90
8.44
8.60

14-Sep

(-1 day)

2.00
2.55
2.73
2.97
2.95

2.00
2.53
2.72
2.96
2.96

2.00
2.51
2.72
2.87
2.97

2.00
2.49
2.76
2.87
3.07

1.53
0.45
0.77
3.66
0.11
2.73
2.85
4.10
2.47

1.50
0.42
0.73
3.66
0.11
2.73
2.86
4.11
2.45

1.46
0.39
0.72
3.63
0.11
2.73
2.75
4.14
2.39

1.24
0.30
0.66
3.64
0.09
2.73
2.72
4.05
2.41

3.89
4.53
5.15

3.93
4.56
5.19

3.90
4.57
5.17

3.79
4.40
4.97

14-Sep

(-1 day)

5.47
6.70
7.12

5.44
6.70
7.12

5.40
6.70
7.12

5.34
6.65
7.14

2.16
2.34
2.57

2.16
2.33
2.57

2.13
2.33
2.54

2.07
2.31
2.51

5.87
13.7

5.90
13.7

5.89
13.6

5.77
14.0

14-Sep
96.44
90.65
89.62
94.13

(-1 day)
96.27
90.25
88.96
93.00

Change
16
40
67
113

Yield
8.14%
8.55%
8.81%
8.91%

Global Bonds
Fed Fund Rate & US T-Bonds Yield
Fed Fund Rate
2-Year
5-Year
10-Year
30-Year
10-Year Government Bond Yield
UK
Germany
France
China
Japan
Korea
Thailand
Malaysia
Singapore
Indonesia USD Bond Yield
INDO-22
INDO-27
INDO-47
Money Market
JIBOR
O/N
1M
3M
LIBOR
1M
3M
6M
Indonesia Interest Rates
Deposit 1M
Lending
Benchmark
FR0061
FR0059
FR0074
FR0072

Volume
(IDR bn)
190
83
60
40
38
35
25
25
20
20

Last Price

14-Sep
(-1 week) (- 1 month)

14-Sep
(-1 week) (- 1 month)

Government Bond Ownership As of September 13, 2018 (in Trillion)
Holders
2013
Banks
335.43
Bank Indonesia
44.44
Mutual Fund
42.50
Insurance
129.55
Foreign Investor
323.83
Pension Fund
39.47
Individual Investors
32.48
Others
47.56
Total
995.25
Source: Bloomberg, IDX & DJPPR

2014
375.55
41.63
45.79
150.60
461.35
43.30
30.41
61.32
1,209.96

2015
350.07
148.91
61.60
171.62
558.52
49.83
42.53
78.76
1,461.85

2016
399.46
134.25
85.66
238.24
665.81
87.28
57.75
104.84
1,773.28

2017
491.61
141.83
104.00
150.80
836.15
198.06
59.84
117.48
2,099.77

7-Sep-18
611.18
99.71
118.1
191.5
838.21
212.43
63.93
133.22
2,268.29

10-Sep-18
611.46
100.32
118.1
191.6
836.96
212.54
64.00
133.24
2,268.29

12-Sep-18
606.20
107.78
118.1
191.0
835.25
212.63
64.02
133.75
2,268.79

13-Sep-18
605.61
109.68
118.2
191.0
833.40
213.11
64.11
133.74
2,268.79

September 17, 2018

Government Bonds Prices
Closing Price Data : 14-Sep-2018
Series
FR0048
FR0069
FR0036
FR0031
FR0034
FR0053
FR0061
FR0035
FR0043
FR0063
FR0046
FR0039
FR0070
FR0044
FR0040
FR0037
FR0056
FR0059
FR0042
FR0047
FR0064
FR0071
FR0052
FR0073
FR0054
FR0058
FR0074
FR0065
FR0068
FR0072
FR0045
FR0075
FR0050
FR0057
FR0062
FR0067
FR0076

Maturity
15-Sep-18
15-Apr-19
15-Sep-19
15-Nov-20
15-Jun-21
15-Jul-21
15-May-22
15-Jun-22
15-Jul-22
15-May-23
15-Jul-23
15-Aug-23
15-Mar-24
15-Sep-24
15-Sep-25
15-Sep-26
15-Sep-26
15-May-27
15-Jul-27
15-Feb-28
15-May-28
15-Mar-29
15-Aug-30
15-May-31
15-Jul-31
15-Jun-32
15-Aug-32
15-May-33
15-Mar-34
15-May-36
15-May-37
15-May-38
15-Jul-38
15-May-41
15-Apr-42
15-Jul-43
15-May-48

TTM
0.00
0.58
1.00
2.17
2.75
2.84
3.67
3.75
3.84
4.67
4.84
4.92
5.50
6.01
7.01
8.01
8.01
8.67
8.84
9.43
9.67
10.51
11.93
12.67
12.84
13.76
13.93
14.68
15.51
17.68
18.68
138.47
19.85
22.68
23.60
24.85
29.69

Source: Bloomberg, IBPA & MCS Estimates

Coupon
9.000%
7.875%
11.500%
11.000%
12.800%
8.250%
7.000%
12.900%
10.250%
5.625%
9.500%
11.750%
8.375%
10.000%
11.000%
12.000%
8.375%
7.000%
10.250%
10.000%
6.125%
9.000%
10.500%
8.750%
9.500%
8.250%
7.500%
6.625%
8.375%
8.250%
9.750%
7.500%
10.500%
9.500%
6.375%
8.750%
7.375%

Price
100.05
100.36
103.75
106.26
111.53
100.52
96.44
115.29
106.01
89.84
104.31
113.06
99.46
107.02
112.59
119.21
98.38
90.65
109.72
108.61
85.29
102.62
112.44
100.65
105.28
95.90
89.62
83.45
96.28
94.13
106.60
86.81
112.76
102.03
73.91
94.91
82.56

YTM
-10.40%
7.20%
7.51%
7.78%
8.02%
8.03%
8.14%
8.07%
8.37%
8.30%
8.39%
8.44%
8.50%
8.48%
8.57%
8.62%
8.66%
8.55%
8.65%
8.64%
8.37%
8.62%
8.79%
8.66%
8.80%
8.77%
8.81%
8.64%
8.82%
8.91%
9.08%
8.93%
9.10%
9.28%
9.07%
9.27%
9.15%

Price (-1)
100.06
100.32
103.81
106.24
111.52
100.46
96.27
115.32
105.93
89.51
104.09
112.94
99.46
106.81
112.28
123.88
98.51
90.25
109.59
108.43
84.54
102.11
112.44
100.65
104.82
95.90
88.96
82.90
95.63
93.00
105.939
85.70
112.76
102.03
73.91
94.91
82.38

Price Spread (bps)
-0.4
4.2
-6.2
1.8
1.0
5.7
16.4
-3.3
8.0
32.2
21.8
12.4
0.0
20.8
30.9
-467.1
-13.0
39.8
13.1
18.4
75.2
51.2
0.0
0.0
46.4
0.0
66.6
55.2
65.8
112.8
65.7
110.6
0.0
0.0
0.0
-0.2
18.3

September 17, 2018

Macroeconomic Indicator
IndicatorCalendar
Calendar
(19 - 23 Maret
2018)
Macroeconomic
(September
17 - September
21 2018)
INDONESIA

Date

Indicator

Series
Data

Actual

Previous

Projection

17

Balance of Trade

Aug-18

-

USD -2.0 billion

USD -0.7 billion

17

Export Growth (YoY)

Aug-18

-

19.33%

11.35%

17

Import Growth (YoY)

Aug-18

-

31.56%

14.10%

Actual

Previous

Projection

2.1%

2.0%

GLOBAL

Date

Indicator

Country Series Data

17

Inflation Rate Final
(YoY)

Euro Area

Aug-18

-

19

Balance of Trade

Japan

Aug-18

-

19

BoJ Interest Rate

Japan

-

-

-0.1%

-0.1%

19

Inflation Rate (YoY)

United
Kingdom

Aug-18

-

2.5%

2.7%

19

Crude Oil Inventory

US

Week Ended,
Sep 14 - 2018

-

20

Existing Home Sales

US

Aug-18

-

5.34 million

5.36 million

20

Initial Jobless Claims

US

Week Ended,
Sep 15-2018

-

204 thousand

208 thousand

20

Continuing Jobless
Claims

US

Week Ended,
Sep 08-2018

-

1696 thousand

1700 thousand

21

Inflation Rate (YoY)

Japan

Aug-18

-

0.9%

1.0%

Source: Tradingeconomics, Bloomberg, and MCS Estimates (2018)

JPY -231.0 billion JPY 575.5 billion

-5.3 million barrel -1.2 million barrel

September 17, 2018

PT. MEGA CAPITAL SEKURITAS
Head Office
Menara Bank Mega Lt. 2
Jl. Kapten P. Tendean Kav 12-14A
Jakarta 12790

Dealing Room
Phone No

: +62 21 7995795

Fax No

: +62 21 79175965

Eva Sarah Hutabarat

[email protected]

Head of Debt Capital
Market

Cicih Sukaesih

[email protected]

Debt Sales

Emilda Mardiyanti

[email protected]

Debt Sales

Ajeng Palupi P.

[email protected]

Debt Sales

Qolbie Ardie

[email protected]

Economist &
Fixed Income Analyst

Siti Maulina M.

[email protected]

Administrative
Assistant

DISCLAIMER
This Document is for information only and for the use of the recipient. It is not to be reproduced or copied or made available to others. Under no
circumstances is it to be considered as an offer to sell or solicitation to buy any security. Any recommendation contained in this report may not be
suitable for all investors and strictly a personal view and should not be used as a sole judgment for investment. Moreover, although the information
contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, its accuracy, completeness and reliability cannot be guaranteed. All rights