Kotler04_media.ppt 2256KB Aug 31 2008 09:51:40 PM

MARKETING MANAGEMENT
12th edition

4
Conducting
Marketing Research
and Forecasting
Demand

Kotler

Keller

Chapter Questions
• What constitutes good marketing
research?
• What are good metrics for measuring
marketing productivity?
• How can marketers assess their return
on investment of marketing
expenditures?

• How can companies more accurately
measure and forecast demand?
4-2

Build-A-Bear
Workshop makes
the most of
“interactive
entertainment
retailing”

4-3

Marketing Research Defined

Systematic design, collection,
analysis, and reporting of data
and findings relevant to a specific
marketing situation facing a company.

4-4

Karmaloop.com

4-5

Types of Marketing Research Firms

Syndicatedservice

Custom

Specialtyline

4-6

The Marketing Research Process
Define the problem
Develop research plan
Collect information

Analyze information

Make
decision

Present findings
4-7

Step 1

• Define the problem
• Specify decision alternatives
• State research objectives

4-8

Step 2

Data
Sources

Research
Approach

Research
Instruments

Sampling
Plan

Contact
Methods
4-9

Research Approaches
Observation
Observation
Focus
Focus Group
Group

Survey
Survey
Behavioral
Behavioral Data
Data
Experimentation
Experimentation
4-10

Focus Group in Session

4-11

Research Instruments

Questionnaires
Qualitative Measures
Mechanical Devices

4-12

Questionnaire Do’s and Don’ts
• Ensure questions are
free of bias
• Make questions simple
• Make questions specific
• Avoid jargon
• Avoid sophisticated
words
• Avoid ambiguous words

• Avoid negatives
• Avoid hypotheticals
• Avoid words that could
be misheard
• Use response bands
• Use mutually exclusive
categories
• Allow for “other” in fixed
response questions

4-13

Question Types - Dichotomous
In arranging this trip, did you contact American
Airlines?
 Yes  No

4-14

Question Types – Multiple Choice
With whom are you traveling on this trip?
 No one
 Spouse
 Spouse and children
 Children only
 Business associates/friends/relatives
 An organized tour group
4-15

Question Types – Likert Scale

Indicate your level of agreement with the following
statement: Small airlines generally give better
service than large ones.
 Strongly disagree
 Disagree
 Neither agree nor disagree
 Agree
 Strongly agree
4-16

Question Types – Semantic Differential
American Airlines
Large ………………………………...…………….Small
Experienced………………….………….Inexperienced
Modern………………………..………….Old-fashioned

4-17

Question Types – Importance Scale
Airline food service is _____ to me.

 Extremely important
 Very important
 Somewhat important
 Not very important
 Not at all important

4-18

Question Types – Rating Scale
American Airlines’ food service is _____.
 Excellent
 Very good
 Good
 Fair
 Poor

4-19

Question Types –
Intention to Buy Scale

How likely are you to purchase tickets on American
Airlines if in-flight Internet access were available?
 Definitely buy
 Probably buy
 Not sure
 Probably not buy
 Definitely not buy
4-20

Question Types –
Completely Unstructured
What is your opinion of American Airlines?

4-21

Question Types –
Word Association
What is the first word that comes to your mind
when you hear the following?
Airline ________________________

American _____________________
Travel ________________________

4-22

Question Types –
Sentence Completion
When I choose an airline, the most important
consideration in my decision is:
_________________________________________
_________________________________________
_________________________________________
_________________________________________
_________________________________________
___________________________________.

4-23

Question Types –
Story Completion
“I flew American a few days ago. I noticed that the
exterior and interior of the plane had very bright
colors. This aroused in me the following thoughts
and feelings.” Now complete the story.
_________________________________________
_________________________________________
_________________________________________
_________________________________________
_________________________________________
___________________________________
4-24

Question Types –
Picture (Empty Balloons)

4-25

Question Types –
Thematic Apperception Test

Make up a story that reflects what you think is
happening in this picture.
4-26

Qualitative Measures
Shadowing
Shadowing
Behavior
Behavior mapping
mapping
Consumer
Consumer journey
journey
Camera
Camera journals
journals
Extreme
Extreme user
user interviews
interviews
Storytelling
Storytelling
Unfocused
Unfocused groups
groups
4-27

Mechanical Devices
Galvanometers
Tachistoscope
Eye cameras
Audiometers
GPS
4-28

Sampling Plan

• Sampling unit: Who is to be surveyed?
• Sample size: How many people should be
surveyed?
• Sampling procedure: How should the
respondents be chosen?

4-29

Types of Samples
Probability
• Simple random
• Stratified random
• Cluster

Nonprobability
• Convenience
• Judgment
• Quota

4-30

Contact Methods
Mail Questionnaire
Telephone
Interview
Personal
Interview
Online
Interview
4-31

Characteristics of Good
Marketing Research
 Scientific method

 Research creativity
 Multiple methods
 Interdependence
 Value and cost of information
 Healthy skepticism
 Ethical marketing
4-32

Table 4.4 Marketing Metrics
Internal
External
• Awareness of goals
• Awareness
• Commitment to goals
• Market share
• Active support
• Relative price
• Number of complaints • Resource adequacy
• Customer satisfaction • Staffing levels
• Desire to learn
• Distribution
• Willingness to change
• Total number of
• Freedom to fail
customers
• Loyalty
• Autonomy
4-33

Table 4.5 Sample CustomerPerformance Scorecard Measures
•
•
•
•
•
•
•

% of new customers to average #
% of lost customers to average #
% of win-back customers to average #
% of customers in various levels of satisfaction
% of customers who would repurchase
% of target market members with brand recall
% of customers who say brand is most preferred

4-34

Tools to Measure Marketing Plan
Performance

Sales
Analysis

Market Share
Analysis

Expenseto-Sales
Analysis

Financial
Analysis

4-35

Sales Analysis

SalesVariance
Analysis

MicroSales
Analysis

4-36

Market Share Analysis

• Overall market share
• Served market share
• Relative market share

4-37

Figure 4.2 The Control-Chart Model

4-38

Figure 4.3 Financial Model of
Return on Net Worth

4-39

Marketing-Profitability Analysis

Step 1: Identifying Functional Expenses
Step 2: Assigning Functional Expenses to
Marketing Entities
Step 3: Preparing a Profit-and-Loss Statement
for each Marketing Entity

4-40

Table 4.6
Simplified Profit-and-Loss Statement

4-41

Table 4.7 Mapping Natural Expenses into
Functional Expenses

4-42

Table 4.8 Bases for Allocating Functional
Expenses to Channels

4-43

Table 4.9 Profit-and-Loss Statements
for Channels

4-44

Distinguishing Types of Costs

Direct

Traceable
common

Nontraceable
common

4-45

Gladware uses
marketing-mix
modeling to test
advertising
effectiveness

4-46

The Measures of Market Demand

Potential
Market

Available
Market

Target
Market

Penetrated
Market

4-47

Figure 4.4 Ninety Types of
Demand Measurement

4-48

Figure 4.5
Market Demand Functions

4-49

Figure 4.5
Market Demand Functions

4-50

Product Penetration Percentage

4-51

Estimating Current Demand
• Total market potential
• Area market potential
– Market buildup method
– Multiple-factor index method
• Brand development index

4-52

Table 4.10 Calculating
Brand Development Index

4-53

Estimating Future Demand
•
•
•
•
•

Survey of Buyers’ Intentions
Composite of Sales Force Opinions
Expert Opinion
Past-Sales Analysis
Market-Test Method

4-54

Purchase Probability Scale
Do you intend to buy an automobile within
the next 6 months?
0.00 No
0.20 Slight possibility
0.40 Fair possibility
0.60 Good possibility
0.80 High possibility
1.00 Certain
4-55

Marketing Debate
 What is the best type of marketing
research?
Take a position:
1. Marketing research should be
quantitative.
2. Marketing research should be
qualitative.
4-56

Marketing Discussion

When was the last time you
participated in a survey? How helpful
do you think was the information
you provided? Could the research
have been done differently?

4-57