Analisis Pengaruh Pajak Ekspor terhadap Kinerja Industri Kelapa Sawit di Sumatera Utara
LAMPIRAN
Universitas Sumatera Utara
Lampiran 1. Data Luas Areal Kelapa Sawit (Ha) Sumatera Utara dan Harga
CPO Domestik (Rp/Kg) Tahun 1985-2014
LAt
HCPOt
LAt-5
(Ha)
(Rp/Kg)
(Ha)
1985
393.4
4813
256.6
1986
392.5
2695
273.3
1987
388.5
4218
295.3
1988
420.8
5101
356.7
1989
472.1
4028
388.8
1990
513.2
3234
393.4
1991
508.4
3656
392.5
1992
521.1
4112
388.5
1993
554.4
3846
420.8
1994
602.2
3466
472.1
1995
626.2
3117
513.2
1996
649.4
2900
508.4
1997
693
2160
521.1
1998
715.6
4862
554.4
1999
732.1
6676
602.2
2000
755.5
5152
626.2
2001
869.1
3872
649.4
2002
886.7
4745
693
2003
919.7
5466
715.6
2004
844.9
5745
732.1
2005
894.9
5002
755.5
2006
979.5
4701
869.1
2007
998.9
6478
886.7
2008
1026
6686
919.7
2009
983
6879
844.9
2010
989.7
6986
894.9
2011
994
7196
979.5
2012
998.2
7246
998.9
2013
1109.4
7170
1026
2014
1152.9
8093
983
Sumber : Dinas Perkebunan Sumatera Utara dan Badan Pusat
Statistik Sumatera Utara
Tahun
Universitas Sumatera Utara
Lampiran 2. Data Bulanan Produktivitas CPO Sumatera Utara, Harga
Ekspor CPO dan Harga CPO Domestik Tahun 20112014
Tahun
2011
2012
2013
YCPOt
(Ton)
0.747
0.699
0.735
0.765
0.749
0.876
0.858
0.814
0.856
0.908
0.924
0.952
0.736
0.71
0.768
0.816
0.874
0.865
0.843
0.898
0.937
0.989
0.897
0.866
0.709
0.765
0.734
0.814
0.865
0.875
0.834
0.889
0.968
0.943
HXCPOt
(USD/MT)
1184.37
1217
1294.54
1207.53
1145.05
1146.82
1168.38
1089.37
1071.68
1072.63
1009.57
1041.56
1032.29
1073
1088.72
1147.99
1191.93
1169.58
1015.31
990.55
918
999.17
847
825.34
780.26
815.12
853.87
851.39
838.02
835.71
858.64
852
831.5
831.5
HCPOt
(Rp/Kg)
6,457
6,986
6,963
7,187
7,314
7,441
7,162
7,559
7,391
6,817
6,789
7,215
7,689
7,841
8,364
8,594
7,983
7,072
7,481
7,199
7,275
5,960
6,108
5,831
6,542
6,825
6,797
6,696
6,878
7,092
6,879
6,995
7,692
7,963
YCPOt-1
(Ton)
0.83
0.747
0.699
0.735
0.765
0.749
0.876
0.858
0.814
0.856
0.908
0.924
0.952
0.736
0.71
0.768
0.816
0.874
0.865
0.843
0.898
0.937
0.989
0.897
0.866
0.709
0.765
0.734
0.814
0.865
0.875
0.834
0.889
0.968
Universitas Sumatera Utara
0.846
841
8,461
0.943
0.867
912.78
7,217
0.846
2014
0.746
865
8,776
0.867
0.756
880
8,960
0.746
0.764
851.39
9,290
0.756
0.834
972.88
8,677
0.764
0.887
932.64
8,608
0.834
0.897
915.26
8,347
0.887
0.853
870.35
8,275
0.897
0.986
865.5
7,690
0.853
0.947
810.63
7,150
0.986
0.964
679
7,706
0.947
0.889
700
7,809
0.964
0.968
736
5,831
0.889
Sumber : Departemen Pertanian Republik Indonesia, Dinas Perkebunan
Sumatera Utara, Badan Pusat Statistik Indonesia
Lampiran 3. Data Bulanan Ekspor CPO Sumatera Utara, Harga Ekspor
CPO, Nilai Tukar, Pajak Ekspor, dan Produksi CPO Sumatera
Utara Tahun 2011-2014
Tahun
2011
2012
XCPOt
HXCPOt
XRt
(Kg)
(USD/MT) (USD/Rp)
323,253,828.00
1184.37
9115
346,397,037.00
1217
8976
328,898,091.00
1294.54
8765
473,986,044.00
1207.53
8699
329,656,377.00
1145.05
8578
519,998,875.00
1146.82
8574
376,121,247.00
1168.38
8597
527,752,473.00
1089.37
8581
439,562,064.00
1071.68
8867
514,150,241.00
1072.63
8899
417,137,412.00
1009.57
9080
531,693,702.00
1041.56
9133
361,613,829.00
1032.29
9120
309,847,138.00
1073
9073
407,136,574.00
1088.72
9219
299,883,094.00
1147.99
9230
226,502,722.00
1191.93
9357
PE
(%)
20
25
25
22.5
17.5
17.5
20
15
15
16.5
15
15
15
16.5
16.5
18
19.5
PCPOt
(Kg)
339258.33
339258.33
339258.33
339258.33
339258.33
339258.33
339258.33
339258.33
339258.33
339258.33
339258.33
339258.33
345175
345175
345175
345175
345175
XCPOt-1
(Kg)
303,251.80
323,253,828.00
346,397,037.00
328,898,091.00
473,986,044.00
329,656,377.00
519,998,875.00
376,121,247.00
527,752,473.00
439,562,064.00
514,150,241.00
417,137,412.00
531,693,702.00
361,613,829.00
309,847,138.00
407,136,574.00
299,883,094.00
Universitas Sumatera Utara
327,679,031.00
1169.58
9480
19.5
345175
498,021,774.00
1015.31
9490
15
345175
482,190,467.00
990.55
9526
15
345175
500,405,513.00
918
9608
13.5
345175
339,142,911.00
999.17
9638
13.5
345175
647,560,557.00
847
9676
9
345175
522,882,529.00
825.34
9691
9
345175
2013
503,458,277.00
780.26
9738
7.5
379100
476,696,132.00
815.12
9733
9
379100
332,598,798.00
853.87
9754
10.5
379100
431,345,248.00
851.39
9777
10.5
379100
464,527,247.00
838.02
9809
9
379100
398,410,955.00
835.71
9930
9
379100
430,289,572.00
858.64
10273
10.5
379100
446,038,736.00
852
10557
10.5
379100
386,967,273.00
831.5
11409
9
379100
510,488,449.00
831.5
11446
9
379100
595,020,883.00
841
11667
9
379100
381,611,116.00
912.78
12165
12
379100
2014
347,420,573.00
865
12210
12
396125
472,066,063.00
880
11945
10.5
396125
493,200,600.00
851.39
11464
10.5
396125
240,679,595.00
972.88
11495
13.5
396125
455,693,019.00
932.64
11544
13.5
396125
466,866,887.00
915.26
11922
12
396125
475,378,880.00
870.35
11685
10.5
396125
395,215,558.00
865.5
11740
10.5
396125
554,289,377.00
810.63
11968
9
396125
598,747,924.00
679
12125
0
396125
476,320,960.00
700
12224
0
396125
403,433,596.00
736
12496
0
396125
Sumber : Departemen Pertanian Republik Indonesia, Dinas Perkebunan
Sumatera Utara, Badan Pusat Statistik Indonesia, Pusat Statistik
Ekonomi, Data Statistik Perkebunan Sumatera Utara
226,502,722.00
327,679,031.00
498,021,774.00
482,190,467.00
500,405,513.00
339,142,911.00
647,560,557.00
522,882,529.00
503,458,277.00
476,696,132.00
332,598,798.00
431,345,248.00
464,527,247.00
398,410,955.00
430,289,572.00
446,038,736.00
386,967,273.00
510,488,449.00
595,020,883.00
381,611,116.00
347,420,573.00
472,066,063.00
493,200,600.00
240,679,595.00
455,693,019.00
466,866,887.00
475,378,880.00
395,215,558.00
554,289,377.00
598,747,924.00
476,320,960.00
Universitas Sumatera Utara
Lampiran 4. Perkembangan Produksi CPO dan Volume Ekspor CPO
Sumatera Utara, Indonesia, dan Dunia Tahun 1980-2012
Tahun
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
Produksi
CPO
Produksi CPO
Ekspor CPO
Sumatera
Dunia (Ton)
Dunia (Ton)
Utara
(Ton)
29,858,675
721,172
662,600
3,616,636
31,000,047
800,060
699,400
3,228,445
35,756,699
886,820
785,800
3,776,075
33,295,322
982,987
820,400
4,016,523
40,399,328
1,147,190 1,003,900
4,317,579
43,223,956
1,243,430 1,027,200
5,221,475
46,917,489
1,350,729 1,237,800
6,242,040
48,090,189
1,506,055 1,124,500
5,780,610
52,956,114
1,713,335 1,314,800
5,989,056
58,856,609
1,964,954 1,382,100
7,048,160
60,902,077
2,412,612 1,658,900
8,071,864
63,287,310
2,657,600 1,688,700
8,212,863
66,886,584
3,266,250 1,826,300
8,182,294
78,581,976
3,421,449 1,861,600
9,071,773
81,215,495
4,008,062 1,807,700
10,807,265
88,126,230
4,179,670 1,829,200
10,216,665
93,036,525
4,898,658 1,864,900
11,411,185
99,226,963
5,448,508 2,017,200
12,373,698
98,618,825
5,930,415 2,504,000
10,454,728
114,380,331
6,455,590 2,313,000
13,733,479
120,473,108
7,000,508 2,363,000
14,161,936
128,800,051
8,396,472 2,467,600
17,063,269
135,628,811
9,622,345 2,619,300
18,816,989
150,290,352 10,440,834 2,763,900
21,087,519
163,434,438 10,830,389 2,453,000
23,559,446
181,889,080 11,861,615 2,511,600
26,768,219
195,567,399 17,350,848 3,244,900
29,956,190
192,965,436 17,664,725 3,083,400
26,210,559
214,385,814 17,539,788 3,200,700
33,379,262
218,465,870 19,324,293 3,324,600
35,175,978
224,452,909 21,958,120 3,463,600
35,341,087
241,226,904 23,096,511 4,071,100
37,047,844
249,532,654 26,015,518 4,142,100
37,508,484
Sumber : Ditjen Perkebunan dan FAO, diolah Pusdatin
Produksi
CPO
Indonesia
(Ton)
Ekspor CPO
Indonesia (Ton)
502,902
201,251
262,035
345,777
142,660
616,815
608,748
638,420
974,566
917,291
1,173,883
1,304,011
1,252,813
1,907,237
1,971,707
1,576,423
2,013,275
3,470,568
1,826,287
3,896,830
4,688,852
5,485,144
7,072,124
7,046,303
9,565,974
11,418,987
11,745,954
13,210,742
18,141,006
21,151,126
20,394,174
20,972,382
20,296,759
Universitas Sumatera Utara
Lampiran 5. Beberapa Negara dengan Produksi Kelapa Sawit Terbesar di
Dunia Tahun 2008-2012
No
Negara
1
2
3
4
5
Indonesia
Malaysia
Nigeria
Thailand
Colombia
Papua New
6 Guinea
7 Lainnya
Dunia
2008
2009
17,539,788 19,324,293
17,734,441 17,564,973
1,543,761 1,387,604
1,330,000 1,233,050
777,800
804,838
Produksi (Ton)
2010
2011
2012
Rata-rata
%
19,760,011 21,449,000 23,672,000 20,349,018 44.46
16,993,717 18,911,520 18,785,030 17,997,936 39.32
1,287,509 1,530,000 1,600,000 1,469,775 3.21
970,820
930,000
940,000 1,080,774 2.36
753,093
945,030
966,900
849,532 1.86
465,000
478,000
500,000
560,000
530,000
506,600
3,182,405 3,333,784 3,536,088 3,611,745 3,929,851 3,518,775
42,573,195 44,126,542 43,801,238 47,937,295 50,423,781 45,772,410
Sumber : FAO, diolah Pusdatin
Lampiran 6. Provinsi Sentra Produksi Minyak Sawit di Indonesia
Rata-rataTahun 2009-2012
No.
Negara
2009
5,932,310
3,158,144
2010
6,358,703
3,113,006
Produksi (Ton)
2011
2012
5,736,722 6,421,228
4,071,143 4,182,052
Rata-rata
6,112,241
3,631,086
%
26
16
1 Riau
2 Sumatera Utara
Kalimantan
3
1,677,976 2,251,077 2,146,160 2,771,268 2,211,620 10
Tengah
4 Sumatera Selatan 2,036,553 2,227,963 2,203,275 2,603,536 2,267,832 10
5 Jambi
1,265,788 1,509,560 1,684,174 1,885,530 1,586,263
7
Kalimantan
6
862,515 1,102,860 1,434,171 1,601,200 1,250,187
6
Barat
Lainnya
4,391,007 5,394,951 5,805,784 6,550,706 5,535,612 25
Indonesia
19,324,293 21,958,120 23,081,429 26,015,520 22,594,841 100
Sumber : Ditjen Perkebunan, diolah Pusdatin
Universitas Sumatera Utara
1.11
7.69
100
Lampiran 7. Negara Eksportir Minyak Sawit Terbesar Dunia
Rata-rata Tahun 2007-2011
No.
Negara
1 Indonesia
2 Malaysia
3 Belanda
papua
4 Nugini
Lainnya
Dunia
Volume Ekspor CPO (Ton)
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
Rata-rata
%
8,875,419 14,290,686 16,829,207 16,291,857 16,336,750 14,524,784 42.99
13,011,131 14,142,447 13,924,410 14,732,721 15,783,756 14,318,893 42.38
1,251,807 1,500,513 1,310,774 1,168,049 1,288,157 1,303,860 3.86
368,300
446,000
470,000
485,700
571,900
468,380
3,064,109 3,319,999 2,957,927 2,987,546 3,532,282 3,172,373
26,570,766 33,699,645 35,492,318 35,665,873 37,512,845 33,788,289
Sumber : FAO, diolah Pusdatin
Universitas Sumatera Utara
1.39
9.39
100
Lampiran 8. Hasil Output E-views 7 Persamaan Luas Areal Kelapa Sawit
Sumatera Utara
Dependent Variable: LAT
Method: Two-Stage Least Squares
Date: 11/08/15 Time: 14:44
Sample: 1985 2014
Included observations: 30
Instrument specification: LAT C HCPOT LAT_5
Variable
Coefficient
Std. Error
t-Statistic
Prob.
C
HCPOT
LAT_5
170.5773
-0.014254
1.036941
27.97232
0.008735
0.057662
6.098075
-1.631925
17.98297
0.0000
0.1143
0.0000
R-squared
Adjusted R-squared
S.E. of regression
F-statistic
Prob(F-statistic)
J-statistic
Prob(J-statistic)
0.965423
0.962862
45.75868
376.9362
0.000000
27.00000
0.000000
Mean dependent var
S.D. dependent var
Sum squared resid
Durbin-Watson stat
Second-Stage SSR
Instrument rank
752.8433
237.4458
56534.14
0.878784
56534.14
4
10
Series: Residuals
Sample 1985 2014
Observations 30
8
6
4
2
Mean
Median
Maximum
Minimum
Std. Dev.
Skewness
Kurtosis
5.02e-14
-2.939095
85.00188
-104.8908
44.15261
-0.052105
3.306581
Jarque-Bera
Probability
0.131065
0.936569
0
-125
-100
-75
-50
-25
0
25
50
75
100
Breusch-Godfrey Serial Correlation LM Test:
Obs*R-squared
27.77051
Prob. Chi-Square(18)
0.0656
Prob. F(5,24)
Prob. Chi-Square(5)
Prob. Chi-Square(5)
0.3383
0.3056
0.3460
Heteroskedasticity Test: White
F-statistic
Obs*R-squared
Scaled explained SS
1.201514
6.006056
5.610650
Universitas Sumatera Utara
Lampiran 9. Hasil Output E-views 7 Persamaan Produktivitas CPO
Sumatera Utara
Dependent Variable: YCPOT
Method: Two-Stage Least Squares
Date: 11/10/15 Time: 09:57
Sample: 1 48
Included observations: 48
Instrument specification: YCPOT C HXCPOT HCPOT YCPOT_1
Variable
Coefficient
Std. Error
t-Statistic
Prob.
C
HXCPOT
HCPOT
YCPOT_1
0.448644
-5.04E-05
-7.06E-06
0.591534
0.193482
6.93E-05
1.18E-05
0.135667
2.318783
-0.726640
-0.598386
4.360196
0.0251
0.4713
0.5527
0.0001
R-squared
Adjusted R-squared
S.E. of regression
F-statistic
Prob(F-statistic)
J-statistic
Prob(J-statistic)
0.912258
0.937285
0.064627
10.28761
0.000030
44.00000
0.000000
Mean dependent var
S.D. dependent var
Sum squared resid
Durbin-Watson stat
Second-Stage SSR
Instrument rank
0.847542
0.081563
0.183770
1.687754
0.183770
5
9
Series: Residuals
Sample 1 48
Observations 48
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
Mean
Median
Maximum
Minimum
Std. Dev.
Skewness
Kurtosis
3.70e-17
0.007527
0.130674
-0.169495
0.062530
-0.639548
3.546378
Jarque-Bera
Probability
3.869235
0.144479
0
-0.15
-0.10
-0.05
0.00
0.05
0.10
0.15
Breusch-Godfrey Serial Correlation LM Test:
Obs*R-squared
12.71877
Prob. Chi-Square(5)
0.0262
Prob. F(9,38)
Prob. Chi-Square(9)
Prob. Chi-Square(9)
0.9700
0.9563
0.9456
Heteroskedasticity Test: White
F-statistic
Obs*R-squared
Scaled explained SS
0.300606
3.190276
3.413061
Universitas Sumatera Utara
Lampiran 10. Hasil Output E-views 7 Persamaan Ekspor CPO Sumatera
Utara
Dependent Variable: XCPOT
Method: Two-Stage Least Squares
Date: 11/09/15 Time: 08:55
Sample: 1 48
Included observations: 48
Instrument specification: XCPOT C HXCPOT XRT PE PCPOT XCPOT_1
Variable
Coefficient
Std. Error
t-Statistic
Prob.
C
HXCPOT
XRT
PE
PCPOT
XCPOT_1
2.26E+09
-779023.7
-15414.60
-3678889.
3361.132
0.133465
4.95E+08
295849.1
21042.25
7368693.
1284.071
0.118976
4.565193
-2.633179
-0.732555
-0.499259
2.617560
1.121783
0.0000
0.0118
0.4679
0.6202
0.0123
0.2683
R-squared
Adjusted R-squared
S.E. of regression
F-statistic
Prob(F-statistic)
J-statistic
Prob(J-statistic)
0.934323
0.932219
76069641
5.468782
0.000579
42.00000
0.000000
Mean dependent var
S.D. dependent var
Sum squared resid
Durbin-Watson stat
Second-Stage SSR
Instrument rank
4.33E+08
92398857
2.43E+17
1.785159
2.43E+17
7
8
Series: Residuals
Sample 1 48
Observations 48
7
6
Mean
Median
Maximum
Minimum
Std. Dev.
Skewness
Kurtosis
5
4
3
1.43e-06
-9785409.
1.41e+08
-1.21e+08
71909635
0.111772
2.017760
2
Jarque-Bera
Probability
1
2.029534
0.362487
0
-1.0e+08
-5.0e+07
250.000
5.0e+07
1.0e+08
1.5e+08
Breusch-Godfrey Serial Correlation LM Test:
Obs*R-squared
0.730856
Prob. Chi-Square(2)
0.6939
Heteroskedasticity Test: Breusch-Pagan-Godfrey
F-statistic
Obs*R-squared
1.138704
5.730106
Prob. F(5,42)
Prob. Chi-Square(5)
0.3552
0.3334
Universitas Sumatera Utara
Lampiran 11. Hasil Output E-views 7 Uji Kausalitas Persamaan Luas Areal
Perkebunan Kelapa Sawit Sumatera Utara
Pairwise Granger Causality Tests
Date: 11/13/15 Time: 18:46
Sample: 1985 2014
Lags: 5
Null Hypothesis:
Obs
F-Statistic
Prob.
HCPOT does not Granger Cause LAT
LAT does not Granger Cause HCPOT
25
0.65007
2.02483
0.6663
0.1371
LAT_5 does not Granger Cause LAT
LAT does not Granger Cause LAT_5
25
2.27199
1.5E+25
0.1039
1E-172
LAT_5 does not Granger Cause HCPOT
HCPOT does not Granger Cause LAT_5
25
2.78841
1.81241
0.0596
0.1749
Lampiran 12. Gambar Perkebunan Kelapa Sawit dan Biji Kelapa Sawit
Universitas Sumatera Utara
Universitas Sumatera Utara
Lampiran 1. Data Luas Areal Kelapa Sawit (Ha) Sumatera Utara dan Harga
CPO Domestik (Rp/Kg) Tahun 1985-2014
LAt
HCPOt
LAt-5
(Ha)
(Rp/Kg)
(Ha)
1985
393.4
4813
256.6
1986
392.5
2695
273.3
1987
388.5
4218
295.3
1988
420.8
5101
356.7
1989
472.1
4028
388.8
1990
513.2
3234
393.4
1991
508.4
3656
392.5
1992
521.1
4112
388.5
1993
554.4
3846
420.8
1994
602.2
3466
472.1
1995
626.2
3117
513.2
1996
649.4
2900
508.4
1997
693
2160
521.1
1998
715.6
4862
554.4
1999
732.1
6676
602.2
2000
755.5
5152
626.2
2001
869.1
3872
649.4
2002
886.7
4745
693
2003
919.7
5466
715.6
2004
844.9
5745
732.1
2005
894.9
5002
755.5
2006
979.5
4701
869.1
2007
998.9
6478
886.7
2008
1026
6686
919.7
2009
983
6879
844.9
2010
989.7
6986
894.9
2011
994
7196
979.5
2012
998.2
7246
998.9
2013
1109.4
7170
1026
2014
1152.9
8093
983
Sumber : Dinas Perkebunan Sumatera Utara dan Badan Pusat
Statistik Sumatera Utara
Tahun
Universitas Sumatera Utara
Lampiran 2. Data Bulanan Produktivitas CPO Sumatera Utara, Harga
Ekspor CPO dan Harga CPO Domestik Tahun 20112014
Tahun
2011
2012
2013
YCPOt
(Ton)
0.747
0.699
0.735
0.765
0.749
0.876
0.858
0.814
0.856
0.908
0.924
0.952
0.736
0.71
0.768
0.816
0.874
0.865
0.843
0.898
0.937
0.989
0.897
0.866
0.709
0.765
0.734
0.814
0.865
0.875
0.834
0.889
0.968
0.943
HXCPOt
(USD/MT)
1184.37
1217
1294.54
1207.53
1145.05
1146.82
1168.38
1089.37
1071.68
1072.63
1009.57
1041.56
1032.29
1073
1088.72
1147.99
1191.93
1169.58
1015.31
990.55
918
999.17
847
825.34
780.26
815.12
853.87
851.39
838.02
835.71
858.64
852
831.5
831.5
HCPOt
(Rp/Kg)
6,457
6,986
6,963
7,187
7,314
7,441
7,162
7,559
7,391
6,817
6,789
7,215
7,689
7,841
8,364
8,594
7,983
7,072
7,481
7,199
7,275
5,960
6,108
5,831
6,542
6,825
6,797
6,696
6,878
7,092
6,879
6,995
7,692
7,963
YCPOt-1
(Ton)
0.83
0.747
0.699
0.735
0.765
0.749
0.876
0.858
0.814
0.856
0.908
0.924
0.952
0.736
0.71
0.768
0.816
0.874
0.865
0.843
0.898
0.937
0.989
0.897
0.866
0.709
0.765
0.734
0.814
0.865
0.875
0.834
0.889
0.968
Universitas Sumatera Utara
0.846
841
8,461
0.943
0.867
912.78
7,217
0.846
2014
0.746
865
8,776
0.867
0.756
880
8,960
0.746
0.764
851.39
9,290
0.756
0.834
972.88
8,677
0.764
0.887
932.64
8,608
0.834
0.897
915.26
8,347
0.887
0.853
870.35
8,275
0.897
0.986
865.5
7,690
0.853
0.947
810.63
7,150
0.986
0.964
679
7,706
0.947
0.889
700
7,809
0.964
0.968
736
5,831
0.889
Sumber : Departemen Pertanian Republik Indonesia, Dinas Perkebunan
Sumatera Utara, Badan Pusat Statistik Indonesia
Lampiran 3. Data Bulanan Ekspor CPO Sumatera Utara, Harga Ekspor
CPO, Nilai Tukar, Pajak Ekspor, dan Produksi CPO Sumatera
Utara Tahun 2011-2014
Tahun
2011
2012
XCPOt
HXCPOt
XRt
(Kg)
(USD/MT) (USD/Rp)
323,253,828.00
1184.37
9115
346,397,037.00
1217
8976
328,898,091.00
1294.54
8765
473,986,044.00
1207.53
8699
329,656,377.00
1145.05
8578
519,998,875.00
1146.82
8574
376,121,247.00
1168.38
8597
527,752,473.00
1089.37
8581
439,562,064.00
1071.68
8867
514,150,241.00
1072.63
8899
417,137,412.00
1009.57
9080
531,693,702.00
1041.56
9133
361,613,829.00
1032.29
9120
309,847,138.00
1073
9073
407,136,574.00
1088.72
9219
299,883,094.00
1147.99
9230
226,502,722.00
1191.93
9357
PE
(%)
20
25
25
22.5
17.5
17.5
20
15
15
16.5
15
15
15
16.5
16.5
18
19.5
PCPOt
(Kg)
339258.33
339258.33
339258.33
339258.33
339258.33
339258.33
339258.33
339258.33
339258.33
339258.33
339258.33
339258.33
345175
345175
345175
345175
345175
XCPOt-1
(Kg)
303,251.80
323,253,828.00
346,397,037.00
328,898,091.00
473,986,044.00
329,656,377.00
519,998,875.00
376,121,247.00
527,752,473.00
439,562,064.00
514,150,241.00
417,137,412.00
531,693,702.00
361,613,829.00
309,847,138.00
407,136,574.00
299,883,094.00
Universitas Sumatera Utara
327,679,031.00
1169.58
9480
19.5
345175
498,021,774.00
1015.31
9490
15
345175
482,190,467.00
990.55
9526
15
345175
500,405,513.00
918
9608
13.5
345175
339,142,911.00
999.17
9638
13.5
345175
647,560,557.00
847
9676
9
345175
522,882,529.00
825.34
9691
9
345175
2013
503,458,277.00
780.26
9738
7.5
379100
476,696,132.00
815.12
9733
9
379100
332,598,798.00
853.87
9754
10.5
379100
431,345,248.00
851.39
9777
10.5
379100
464,527,247.00
838.02
9809
9
379100
398,410,955.00
835.71
9930
9
379100
430,289,572.00
858.64
10273
10.5
379100
446,038,736.00
852
10557
10.5
379100
386,967,273.00
831.5
11409
9
379100
510,488,449.00
831.5
11446
9
379100
595,020,883.00
841
11667
9
379100
381,611,116.00
912.78
12165
12
379100
2014
347,420,573.00
865
12210
12
396125
472,066,063.00
880
11945
10.5
396125
493,200,600.00
851.39
11464
10.5
396125
240,679,595.00
972.88
11495
13.5
396125
455,693,019.00
932.64
11544
13.5
396125
466,866,887.00
915.26
11922
12
396125
475,378,880.00
870.35
11685
10.5
396125
395,215,558.00
865.5
11740
10.5
396125
554,289,377.00
810.63
11968
9
396125
598,747,924.00
679
12125
0
396125
476,320,960.00
700
12224
0
396125
403,433,596.00
736
12496
0
396125
Sumber : Departemen Pertanian Republik Indonesia, Dinas Perkebunan
Sumatera Utara, Badan Pusat Statistik Indonesia, Pusat Statistik
Ekonomi, Data Statistik Perkebunan Sumatera Utara
226,502,722.00
327,679,031.00
498,021,774.00
482,190,467.00
500,405,513.00
339,142,911.00
647,560,557.00
522,882,529.00
503,458,277.00
476,696,132.00
332,598,798.00
431,345,248.00
464,527,247.00
398,410,955.00
430,289,572.00
446,038,736.00
386,967,273.00
510,488,449.00
595,020,883.00
381,611,116.00
347,420,573.00
472,066,063.00
493,200,600.00
240,679,595.00
455,693,019.00
466,866,887.00
475,378,880.00
395,215,558.00
554,289,377.00
598,747,924.00
476,320,960.00
Universitas Sumatera Utara
Lampiran 4. Perkembangan Produksi CPO dan Volume Ekspor CPO
Sumatera Utara, Indonesia, dan Dunia Tahun 1980-2012
Tahun
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
Produksi
CPO
Produksi CPO
Ekspor CPO
Sumatera
Dunia (Ton)
Dunia (Ton)
Utara
(Ton)
29,858,675
721,172
662,600
3,616,636
31,000,047
800,060
699,400
3,228,445
35,756,699
886,820
785,800
3,776,075
33,295,322
982,987
820,400
4,016,523
40,399,328
1,147,190 1,003,900
4,317,579
43,223,956
1,243,430 1,027,200
5,221,475
46,917,489
1,350,729 1,237,800
6,242,040
48,090,189
1,506,055 1,124,500
5,780,610
52,956,114
1,713,335 1,314,800
5,989,056
58,856,609
1,964,954 1,382,100
7,048,160
60,902,077
2,412,612 1,658,900
8,071,864
63,287,310
2,657,600 1,688,700
8,212,863
66,886,584
3,266,250 1,826,300
8,182,294
78,581,976
3,421,449 1,861,600
9,071,773
81,215,495
4,008,062 1,807,700
10,807,265
88,126,230
4,179,670 1,829,200
10,216,665
93,036,525
4,898,658 1,864,900
11,411,185
99,226,963
5,448,508 2,017,200
12,373,698
98,618,825
5,930,415 2,504,000
10,454,728
114,380,331
6,455,590 2,313,000
13,733,479
120,473,108
7,000,508 2,363,000
14,161,936
128,800,051
8,396,472 2,467,600
17,063,269
135,628,811
9,622,345 2,619,300
18,816,989
150,290,352 10,440,834 2,763,900
21,087,519
163,434,438 10,830,389 2,453,000
23,559,446
181,889,080 11,861,615 2,511,600
26,768,219
195,567,399 17,350,848 3,244,900
29,956,190
192,965,436 17,664,725 3,083,400
26,210,559
214,385,814 17,539,788 3,200,700
33,379,262
218,465,870 19,324,293 3,324,600
35,175,978
224,452,909 21,958,120 3,463,600
35,341,087
241,226,904 23,096,511 4,071,100
37,047,844
249,532,654 26,015,518 4,142,100
37,508,484
Sumber : Ditjen Perkebunan dan FAO, diolah Pusdatin
Produksi
CPO
Indonesia
(Ton)
Ekspor CPO
Indonesia (Ton)
502,902
201,251
262,035
345,777
142,660
616,815
608,748
638,420
974,566
917,291
1,173,883
1,304,011
1,252,813
1,907,237
1,971,707
1,576,423
2,013,275
3,470,568
1,826,287
3,896,830
4,688,852
5,485,144
7,072,124
7,046,303
9,565,974
11,418,987
11,745,954
13,210,742
18,141,006
21,151,126
20,394,174
20,972,382
20,296,759
Universitas Sumatera Utara
Lampiran 5. Beberapa Negara dengan Produksi Kelapa Sawit Terbesar di
Dunia Tahun 2008-2012
No
Negara
1
2
3
4
5
Indonesia
Malaysia
Nigeria
Thailand
Colombia
Papua New
6 Guinea
7 Lainnya
Dunia
2008
2009
17,539,788 19,324,293
17,734,441 17,564,973
1,543,761 1,387,604
1,330,000 1,233,050
777,800
804,838
Produksi (Ton)
2010
2011
2012
Rata-rata
%
19,760,011 21,449,000 23,672,000 20,349,018 44.46
16,993,717 18,911,520 18,785,030 17,997,936 39.32
1,287,509 1,530,000 1,600,000 1,469,775 3.21
970,820
930,000
940,000 1,080,774 2.36
753,093
945,030
966,900
849,532 1.86
465,000
478,000
500,000
560,000
530,000
506,600
3,182,405 3,333,784 3,536,088 3,611,745 3,929,851 3,518,775
42,573,195 44,126,542 43,801,238 47,937,295 50,423,781 45,772,410
Sumber : FAO, diolah Pusdatin
Lampiran 6. Provinsi Sentra Produksi Minyak Sawit di Indonesia
Rata-rataTahun 2009-2012
No.
Negara
2009
5,932,310
3,158,144
2010
6,358,703
3,113,006
Produksi (Ton)
2011
2012
5,736,722 6,421,228
4,071,143 4,182,052
Rata-rata
6,112,241
3,631,086
%
26
16
1 Riau
2 Sumatera Utara
Kalimantan
3
1,677,976 2,251,077 2,146,160 2,771,268 2,211,620 10
Tengah
4 Sumatera Selatan 2,036,553 2,227,963 2,203,275 2,603,536 2,267,832 10
5 Jambi
1,265,788 1,509,560 1,684,174 1,885,530 1,586,263
7
Kalimantan
6
862,515 1,102,860 1,434,171 1,601,200 1,250,187
6
Barat
Lainnya
4,391,007 5,394,951 5,805,784 6,550,706 5,535,612 25
Indonesia
19,324,293 21,958,120 23,081,429 26,015,520 22,594,841 100
Sumber : Ditjen Perkebunan, diolah Pusdatin
Universitas Sumatera Utara
1.11
7.69
100
Lampiran 7. Negara Eksportir Minyak Sawit Terbesar Dunia
Rata-rata Tahun 2007-2011
No.
Negara
1 Indonesia
2 Malaysia
3 Belanda
papua
4 Nugini
Lainnya
Dunia
Volume Ekspor CPO (Ton)
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
Rata-rata
%
8,875,419 14,290,686 16,829,207 16,291,857 16,336,750 14,524,784 42.99
13,011,131 14,142,447 13,924,410 14,732,721 15,783,756 14,318,893 42.38
1,251,807 1,500,513 1,310,774 1,168,049 1,288,157 1,303,860 3.86
368,300
446,000
470,000
485,700
571,900
468,380
3,064,109 3,319,999 2,957,927 2,987,546 3,532,282 3,172,373
26,570,766 33,699,645 35,492,318 35,665,873 37,512,845 33,788,289
Sumber : FAO, diolah Pusdatin
Universitas Sumatera Utara
1.39
9.39
100
Lampiran 8. Hasil Output E-views 7 Persamaan Luas Areal Kelapa Sawit
Sumatera Utara
Dependent Variable: LAT
Method: Two-Stage Least Squares
Date: 11/08/15 Time: 14:44
Sample: 1985 2014
Included observations: 30
Instrument specification: LAT C HCPOT LAT_5
Variable
Coefficient
Std. Error
t-Statistic
Prob.
C
HCPOT
LAT_5
170.5773
-0.014254
1.036941
27.97232
0.008735
0.057662
6.098075
-1.631925
17.98297
0.0000
0.1143
0.0000
R-squared
Adjusted R-squared
S.E. of regression
F-statistic
Prob(F-statistic)
J-statistic
Prob(J-statistic)
0.965423
0.962862
45.75868
376.9362
0.000000
27.00000
0.000000
Mean dependent var
S.D. dependent var
Sum squared resid
Durbin-Watson stat
Second-Stage SSR
Instrument rank
752.8433
237.4458
56534.14
0.878784
56534.14
4
10
Series: Residuals
Sample 1985 2014
Observations 30
8
6
4
2
Mean
Median
Maximum
Minimum
Std. Dev.
Skewness
Kurtosis
5.02e-14
-2.939095
85.00188
-104.8908
44.15261
-0.052105
3.306581
Jarque-Bera
Probability
0.131065
0.936569
0
-125
-100
-75
-50
-25
0
25
50
75
100
Breusch-Godfrey Serial Correlation LM Test:
Obs*R-squared
27.77051
Prob. Chi-Square(18)
0.0656
Prob. F(5,24)
Prob. Chi-Square(5)
Prob. Chi-Square(5)
0.3383
0.3056
0.3460
Heteroskedasticity Test: White
F-statistic
Obs*R-squared
Scaled explained SS
1.201514
6.006056
5.610650
Universitas Sumatera Utara
Lampiran 9. Hasil Output E-views 7 Persamaan Produktivitas CPO
Sumatera Utara
Dependent Variable: YCPOT
Method: Two-Stage Least Squares
Date: 11/10/15 Time: 09:57
Sample: 1 48
Included observations: 48
Instrument specification: YCPOT C HXCPOT HCPOT YCPOT_1
Variable
Coefficient
Std. Error
t-Statistic
Prob.
C
HXCPOT
HCPOT
YCPOT_1
0.448644
-5.04E-05
-7.06E-06
0.591534
0.193482
6.93E-05
1.18E-05
0.135667
2.318783
-0.726640
-0.598386
4.360196
0.0251
0.4713
0.5527
0.0001
R-squared
Adjusted R-squared
S.E. of regression
F-statistic
Prob(F-statistic)
J-statistic
Prob(J-statistic)
0.912258
0.937285
0.064627
10.28761
0.000030
44.00000
0.000000
Mean dependent var
S.D. dependent var
Sum squared resid
Durbin-Watson stat
Second-Stage SSR
Instrument rank
0.847542
0.081563
0.183770
1.687754
0.183770
5
9
Series: Residuals
Sample 1 48
Observations 48
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
Mean
Median
Maximum
Minimum
Std. Dev.
Skewness
Kurtosis
3.70e-17
0.007527
0.130674
-0.169495
0.062530
-0.639548
3.546378
Jarque-Bera
Probability
3.869235
0.144479
0
-0.15
-0.10
-0.05
0.00
0.05
0.10
0.15
Breusch-Godfrey Serial Correlation LM Test:
Obs*R-squared
12.71877
Prob. Chi-Square(5)
0.0262
Prob. F(9,38)
Prob. Chi-Square(9)
Prob. Chi-Square(9)
0.9700
0.9563
0.9456
Heteroskedasticity Test: White
F-statistic
Obs*R-squared
Scaled explained SS
0.300606
3.190276
3.413061
Universitas Sumatera Utara
Lampiran 10. Hasil Output E-views 7 Persamaan Ekspor CPO Sumatera
Utara
Dependent Variable: XCPOT
Method: Two-Stage Least Squares
Date: 11/09/15 Time: 08:55
Sample: 1 48
Included observations: 48
Instrument specification: XCPOT C HXCPOT XRT PE PCPOT XCPOT_1
Variable
Coefficient
Std. Error
t-Statistic
Prob.
C
HXCPOT
XRT
PE
PCPOT
XCPOT_1
2.26E+09
-779023.7
-15414.60
-3678889.
3361.132
0.133465
4.95E+08
295849.1
21042.25
7368693.
1284.071
0.118976
4.565193
-2.633179
-0.732555
-0.499259
2.617560
1.121783
0.0000
0.0118
0.4679
0.6202
0.0123
0.2683
R-squared
Adjusted R-squared
S.E. of regression
F-statistic
Prob(F-statistic)
J-statistic
Prob(J-statistic)
0.934323
0.932219
76069641
5.468782
0.000579
42.00000
0.000000
Mean dependent var
S.D. dependent var
Sum squared resid
Durbin-Watson stat
Second-Stage SSR
Instrument rank
4.33E+08
92398857
2.43E+17
1.785159
2.43E+17
7
8
Series: Residuals
Sample 1 48
Observations 48
7
6
Mean
Median
Maximum
Minimum
Std. Dev.
Skewness
Kurtosis
5
4
3
1.43e-06
-9785409.
1.41e+08
-1.21e+08
71909635
0.111772
2.017760
2
Jarque-Bera
Probability
1
2.029534
0.362487
0
-1.0e+08
-5.0e+07
250.000
5.0e+07
1.0e+08
1.5e+08
Breusch-Godfrey Serial Correlation LM Test:
Obs*R-squared
0.730856
Prob. Chi-Square(2)
0.6939
Heteroskedasticity Test: Breusch-Pagan-Godfrey
F-statistic
Obs*R-squared
1.138704
5.730106
Prob. F(5,42)
Prob. Chi-Square(5)
0.3552
0.3334
Universitas Sumatera Utara
Lampiran 11. Hasil Output E-views 7 Uji Kausalitas Persamaan Luas Areal
Perkebunan Kelapa Sawit Sumatera Utara
Pairwise Granger Causality Tests
Date: 11/13/15 Time: 18:46
Sample: 1985 2014
Lags: 5
Null Hypothesis:
Obs
F-Statistic
Prob.
HCPOT does not Granger Cause LAT
LAT does not Granger Cause HCPOT
25
0.65007
2.02483
0.6663
0.1371
LAT_5 does not Granger Cause LAT
LAT does not Granger Cause LAT_5
25
2.27199
1.5E+25
0.1039
1E-172
LAT_5 does not Granger Cause HCPOT
HCPOT does not Granger Cause LAT_5
25
2.78841
1.81241
0.0596
0.1749
Lampiran 12. Gambar Perkebunan Kelapa Sawit dan Biji Kelapa Sawit
Universitas Sumatera Utara