Faktor-faktor yang Mempengaruhi Ketersediaan Padi dan Jagung Kabupaten Karo
19
Lampiran 1. Perkembangan Jumlah Penduduk Menurut Kecamatan di Kabupaten Karo Tahun 2005-2015
Kecamatan
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
-1
Mardingding
Laubaleng
Tigabinanga
Juhar
Munte
Kutabuluh
Payung
Tiganderket
Simpang Empat
Naman Teran
Merdeka
Kabanjahe
Berastagi
Tigapanah
Dolat Rayat
Merek
Barusjahe
Karo
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
-2
-3
-4
-5
-6
-7
-8
-9
-10
-11
-12
14.414 15.616 15.893 16.248 16.617 17.062 17.222 17.445 17.684 18.601 18.940
16.988 18.404 19.074 19.712 20.355 17.713 17.879 18.110 18.359 19.391 19.766
17.440 18.894 19.138 19.509 19.902 19.900 20.086 20.346 20.626 21.329 21.763
12.777 13.841 13.859 14.026 14.217 13.244 13.368 13.540 13.726 13.877 14.090
18.983 20.565 20.797 21.180 21.586 19.686 19.870 20.127 20.404 20.672 20.949
10.661 11.549 11.853 12.177 12.507 10.586 10.685 10.823 10.972 11.124 11.327
22.516 10.627 10.818 11.058 11.309 10.837 10.938 11.079 11.232 11.601 11.812
0 13.765 13.980 14.272 14.579 13.178 13.301 13.474 13.659 13.757 14.078
39.966 19.774 20.148 20.610 21.089 19.015 19.192 19.440 19.707 20.009 20.373
0 11.550 11.916 12.282 12.652 12.796 12.916 13.083 13.263 13.951 13.985
0 11.973 12.397 12.806 13.218 13.310 13.434 13.607 13.794 15.158 15.244
54.000 58.500 60.318 62.142 63.990 63.326 63.918 64.746 65.635 70.890 72.246
38.257 41.442 43.337 45.011 46.686 42.541 42.939 43.494 44.091 48.050 48.975
34.693 29.626 30.853
8.357 33.102 29.319 29.593 29.976 30.388 32.500 33.207
0
7.957
8.147 31.976
8.573 8.296
8.374
8.482
8.599
9.047
9.212
14.378 15.577 15.652 15.880 16.130 18.054 18.223 18.458 18.712 19.655 20.109
21.134 22.895 23.188 23.634 24.107 22.097 22.304 22.593 22.904 23.010 23.515
316.207 342.555 351.368 360.880 370.619 350.960 354.242 358.823 363.755 382.622 389.591
Sumber : Badan Pusat Statistik Kab. Karo
19
Universitas Sumatera Utara
20
Lampiran 2. Ketersediaan Padi di Kabupaten Karo
Ketersediaan Padi
Luas Panen Padi
Konsumsi Beras
Harga Domestik Beras
Harga Impor Beras
(Ton)
(Ha)
(Ton/Kab/Tahun)
(Rp/Ton)
(Rp/Ton)
2001
84.386,8106
22.126
32.815,70
3740000
2147815
2002
114.804,3529
21.058
34.102,99
4000000
1761726
2003
154.235,5508
22.268
35.455,37
4000000
1755705
2004
171.699,7066
20.194
35.602,20
4060000
2369720
2005
172.117,1040
17.965
36.047,60
4800000
2675040
2006
190.447,4632
18.442
39.051,27
4900000
2801220
2007
244.339,3309
22.973
40.055,95
6500000
3034527
2008
268.793,5902
21.438
41.140,32
6750000
4136170
2009
334.770,3174
25.553
42.250,57
6600000
4074905
2010
343.063,7562
23.203
40.009,44
7713000
4741389
2011
377.448,2124
23.108
40.383,59
9214000
5011863
2012
438.108,3821
25.977
40.905,82
9988000
5076754
2013
471.937,7239
24.068
41.468,07
10422000
6376401
2014
484.345,3886
22.904
43.618,91
10651000
5748885
2015
542.335,7063
24.190
44.413,37
11198000
5662924
Tahun
Sumber : Badan Pusat Statistik dan Badan Ketahanan Pangan Kab. Karo
20
Universitas Sumatera Utara
21
Lampiran 3. Hasil Analisis Regresi Faktor-Faktor yang Mempengaruhi Ketersediaan Padi di Kabupaten Karo
Model Summaryb
Model
Change Statistics
Adjusted R Std. Error of
R Square
R
R Square
Square
the Estimate
Change
F Change
df1
df2
a
1
,990
,980
,972 24448,63354
,980 123,210
4
10
a. Predictors: (Constant), Harga Impor Beras, Luas Panen Padi, Konsumsi Beras, Harga Domestik Beras
b. Dependent Variable: Ketersediaan Padi
Sig. F
Change
,000
ANOVAb
Model
Sum of
Mean
Squares
df
Square
F
Sig.
1
Regression
2,946E11
4
7,365E10 123,210
,000a
Residual
5,977E9
10
5,977E8
Total
3,006E11
14
a. Predictors: (Constant), Harga Impor Beras, Luas Panen Padi, Konsumsi Beras,
Harga Domestik Beras
b. Dependent Variable: Ketersediaan Padi
21
Universitas Sumatera Utara
22
Model
1 (Constant)
Unstandardized Coefficients
B
Std. Error
140331,893
406143,436
3,328
3,748
8,595
3,841
,036
,010
Luas Panen Padi
Konsumsi Beras
Harga Domestik
Beras
Harga Impor Beras
,010
a. Dependent Variable: Ketersediaan Padi
,017
Coefficientsa
Standardized
Coefficients
Correlations
Beta
T
Sig. Zero-order Partial
-2,894 ,016
Collinearity Statistics
Tolerance
VIF
Part
,052
,207
,671
,888
2,237
3,568
,395
,049
,005
,662
,908
,983
,270
,578
,748
,040
,100
,159
,579
,232
,056
1,726
4,301
17,779
,102
,566
,584
,962
,176
,025
,061
16,323
22
Universitas Sumatera Utara
23
23
Universitas Sumatera Utara
24
Lampiran 4. Ketersediaan Jagung di Kabupaten Karo
Ketersediaan Jagung
Pendapatan Per Kapita
Luas Panen Jagung
Harga Jagung
(Ton)
(Rp)
(Ha)
(Rp/Ton)
2001
56637,94
1911508,05
48733,00
844000,00
2002
85415,23
2130819,72
49854,00
899000,00
2003
119420,96
2408360,06
52997,00
844000,00
2004
141207,29
3270304,50
43959,00
1023000,00
2005
161493,72
3683020,64
39805,00
1398000,00
2006
199714,94
3978802,62
50135,00
1200000,00
2007
246060,16
4483323,77
61566,00
1552000,00
2008
289291,22
5058679,19
65234,00
2075000,00
2009
332293,75
5646544,39
67068,00
1776000,00
2010
382712,09
6676016,38
90605,00
2052000,00
2011
408407,00
7634393,22
65318,00
2363000,00
2012
467652,72
8512706,36
78350,00
2102000,00
2013
503198,19
12634515,67
66420,00
2812000,00
2014
542171,63
13817089,85
65421,00
2738000,00
2015
615387,50
15150364,48
83931,00
2725000,00
Tahun
24
Universitas Sumatera Utara
25
Lampiran 5. Hasil Analisis Regresi Faktor-Faktor yang Mempengaruhi Ketersediaan Jagung di Kabupaten Karo
Model Summaryb
Model
1
R
,990a
R Square Adjusted R Square Std. Error of the Estimate R Square Change
,980
,974
28428,65601
,980
Change Statistics
F Change df1 df2 Sig. F Change
178,773
3 11
,000
a. Predictors: (Constant), Harga Domestik Jagung, Luas Panen Jagung, Pendapatan
b. Dependent Variable: Ketersediaan Jagung
ANOVAb
Model
1
Regression
Sum of Squares
4,334E11
Df
3
Mean Square
1,445E11
F
178,773
Sig.
,000a
Residual
8,890E9
11
8,082E8
Total
4,423E11
14
a. Predictors: (Constant), Harga Domestik Jagung, Luas Panen Jagung, Pendapatan
b. Dependent Variable: Ketersediaan Jagung
25
Universitas Sumatera Utara
26
Coefficientsa
Model
Unstandardized Coefficients
B
-146060,124
Std. Error
36563,667
Pendapatan
,020
Luas Panen Jagung
2,663
Harga Domestik Jagung
,087
a. Dependent Variable: Ketersediaan Jagung
,005
,747
,031
1 (Constant)
Standardized
Coefficients
t
Sig.
Beta
,490
,220
,350
-3,995
,002
4,281
3,567
2,811
,001
,004
,017
Correlations
Zero-order
Partial
,958
,791
,962
,791
,732
,647
Collinearity Statistics
Part
,183
,152
,120
Tolerance
,140
,482
,118
VIF
7,158
2,075
8,504
26
Universitas Sumatera Utara
27
27
Universitas Sumatera Utara
Lampiran 1. Perkembangan Jumlah Penduduk Menurut Kecamatan di Kabupaten Karo Tahun 2005-2015
Kecamatan
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
-1
Mardingding
Laubaleng
Tigabinanga
Juhar
Munte
Kutabuluh
Payung
Tiganderket
Simpang Empat
Naman Teran
Merdeka
Kabanjahe
Berastagi
Tigapanah
Dolat Rayat
Merek
Barusjahe
Karo
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
-2
-3
-4
-5
-6
-7
-8
-9
-10
-11
-12
14.414 15.616 15.893 16.248 16.617 17.062 17.222 17.445 17.684 18.601 18.940
16.988 18.404 19.074 19.712 20.355 17.713 17.879 18.110 18.359 19.391 19.766
17.440 18.894 19.138 19.509 19.902 19.900 20.086 20.346 20.626 21.329 21.763
12.777 13.841 13.859 14.026 14.217 13.244 13.368 13.540 13.726 13.877 14.090
18.983 20.565 20.797 21.180 21.586 19.686 19.870 20.127 20.404 20.672 20.949
10.661 11.549 11.853 12.177 12.507 10.586 10.685 10.823 10.972 11.124 11.327
22.516 10.627 10.818 11.058 11.309 10.837 10.938 11.079 11.232 11.601 11.812
0 13.765 13.980 14.272 14.579 13.178 13.301 13.474 13.659 13.757 14.078
39.966 19.774 20.148 20.610 21.089 19.015 19.192 19.440 19.707 20.009 20.373
0 11.550 11.916 12.282 12.652 12.796 12.916 13.083 13.263 13.951 13.985
0 11.973 12.397 12.806 13.218 13.310 13.434 13.607 13.794 15.158 15.244
54.000 58.500 60.318 62.142 63.990 63.326 63.918 64.746 65.635 70.890 72.246
38.257 41.442 43.337 45.011 46.686 42.541 42.939 43.494 44.091 48.050 48.975
34.693 29.626 30.853
8.357 33.102 29.319 29.593 29.976 30.388 32.500 33.207
0
7.957
8.147 31.976
8.573 8.296
8.374
8.482
8.599
9.047
9.212
14.378 15.577 15.652 15.880 16.130 18.054 18.223 18.458 18.712 19.655 20.109
21.134 22.895 23.188 23.634 24.107 22.097 22.304 22.593 22.904 23.010 23.515
316.207 342.555 351.368 360.880 370.619 350.960 354.242 358.823 363.755 382.622 389.591
Sumber : Badan Pusat Statistik Kab. Karo
19
Universitas Sumatera Utara
20
Lampiran 2. Ketersediaan Padi di Kabupaten Karo
Ketersediaan Padi
Luas Panen Padi
Konsumsi Beras
Harga Domestik Beras
Harga Impor Beras
(Ton)
(Ha)
(Ton/Kab/Tahun)
(Rp/Ton)
(Rp/Ton)
2001
84.386,8106
22.126
32.815,70
3740000
2147815
2002
114.804,3529
21.058
34.102,99
4000000
1761726
2003
154.235,5508
22.268
35.455,37
4000000
1755705
2004
171.699,7066
20.194
35.602,20
4060000
2369720
2005
172.117,1040
17.965
36.047,60
4800000
2675040
2006
190.447,4632
18.442
39.051,27
4900000
2801220
2007
244.339,3309
22.973
40.055,95
6500000
3034527
2008
268.793,5902
21.438
41.140,32
6750000
4136170
2009
334.770,3174
25.553
42.250,57
6600000
4074905
2010
343.063,7562
23.203
40.009,44
7713000
4741389
2011
377.448,2124
23.108
40.383,59
9214000
5011863
2012
438.108,3821
25.977
40.905,82
9988000
5076754
2013
471.937,7239
24.068
41.468,07
10422000
6376401
2014
484.345,3886
22.904
43.618,91
10651000
5748885
2015
542.335,7063
24.190
44.413,37
11198000
5662924
Tahun
Sumber : Badan Pusat Statistik dan Badan Ketahanan Pangan Kab. Karo
20
Universitas Sumatera Utara
21
Lampiran 3. Hasil Analisis Regresi Faktor-Faktor yang Mempengaruhi Ketersediaan Padi di Kabupaten Karo
Model Summaryb
Model
Change Statistics
Adjusted R Std. Error of
R Square
R
R Square
Square
the Estimate
Change
F Change
df1
df2
a
1
,990
,980
,972 24448,63354
,980 123,210
4
10
a. Predictors: (Constant), Harga Impor Beras, Luas Panen Padi, Konsumsi Beras, Harga Domestik Beras
b. Dependent Variable: Ketersediaan Padi
Sig. F
Change
,000
ANOVAb
Model
Sum of
Mean
Squares
df
Square
F
Sig.
1
Regression
2,946E11
4
7,365E10 123,210
,000a
Residual
5,977E9
10
5,977E8
Total
3,006E11
14
a. Predictors: (Constant), Harga Impor Beras, Luas Panen Padi, Konsumsi Beras,
Harga Domestik Beras
b. Dependent Variable: Ketersediaan Padi
21
Universitas Sumatera Utara
22
Model
1 (Constant)
Unstandardized Coefficients
B
Std. Error
140331,893
406143,436
3,328
3,748
8,595
3,841
,036
,010
Luas Panen Padi
Konsumsi Beras
Harga Domestik
Beras
Harga Impor Beras
,010
a. Dependent Variable: Ketersediaan Padi
,017
Coefficientsa
Standardized
Coefficients
Correlations
Beta
T
Sig. Zero-order Partial
-2,894 ,016
Collinearity Statistics
Tolerance
VIF
Part
,052
,207
,671
,888
2,237
3,568
,395
,049
,005
,662
,908
,983
,270
,578
,748
,040
,100
,159
,579
,232
,056
1,726
4,301
17,779
,102
,566
,584
,962
,176
,025
,061
16,323
22
Universitas Sumatera Utara
23
23
Universitas Sumatera Utara
24
Lampiran 4. Ketersediaan Jagung di Kabupaten Karo
Ketersediaan Jagung
Pendapatan Per Kapita
Luas Panen Jagung
Harga Jagung
(Ton)
(Rp)
(Ha)
(Rp/Ton)
2001
56637,94
1911508,05
48733,00
844000,00
2002
85415,23
2130819,72
49854,00
899000,00
2003
119420,96
2408360,06
52997,00
844000,00
2004
141207,29
3270304,50
43959,00
1023000,00
2005
161493,72
3683020,64
39805,00
1398000,00
2006
199714,94
3978802,62
50135,00
1200000,00
2007
246060,16
4483323,77
61566,00
1552000,00
2008
289291,22
5058679,19
65234,00
2075000,00
2009
332293,75
5646544,39
67068,00
1776000,00
2010
382712,09
6676016,38
90605,00
2052000,00
2011
408407,00
7634393,22
65318,00
2363000,00
2012
467652,72
8512706,36
78350,00
2102000,00
2013
503198,19
12634515,67
66420,00
2812000,00
2014
542171,63
13817089,85
65421,00
2738000,00
2015
615387,50
15150364,48
83931,00
2725000,00
Tahun
24
Universitas Sumatera Utara
25
Lampiran 5. Hasil Analisis Regresi Faktor-Faktor yang Mempengaruhi Ketersediaan Jagung di Kabupaten Karo
Model Summaryb
Model
1
R
,990a
R Square Adjusted R Square Std. Error of the Estimate R Square Change
,980
,974
28428,65601
,980
Change Statistics
F Change df1 df2 Sig. F Change
178,773
3 11
,000
a. Predictors: (Constant), Harga Domestik Jagung, Luas Panen Jagung, Pendapatan
b. Dependent Variable: Ketersediaan Jagung
ANOVAb
Model
1
Regression
Sum of Squares
4,334E11
Df
3
Mean Square
1,445E11
F
178,773
Sig.
,000a
Residual
8,890E9
11
8,082E8
Total
4,423E11
14
a. Predictors: (Constant), Harga Domestik Jagung, Luas Panen Jagung, Pendapatan
b. Dependent Variable: Ketersediaan Jagung
25
Universitas Sumatera Utara
26
Coefficientsa
Model
Unstandardized Coefficients
B
-146060,124
Std. Error
36563,667
Pendapatan
,020
Luas Panen Jagung
2,663
Harga Domestik Jagung
,087
a. Dependent Variable: Ketersediaan Jagung
,005
,747
,031
1 (Constant)
Standardized
Coefficients
t
Sig.
Beta
,490
,220
,350
-3,995
,002
4,281
3,567
2,811
,001
,004
,017
Correlations
Zero-order
Partial
,958
,791
,962
,791
,732
,647
Collinearity Statistics
Part
,183
,152
,120
Tolerance
,140
,482
,118
VIF
7,158
2,075
8,504
26
Universitas Sumatera Utara
27
27
Universitas Sumatera Utara