Fixed Income Daily Notes

August 09, 2018

Fixed Income Daily Notes
8.50

(-1 day)
6.62
7.23
7.39
7.57
7.67
7.90
7.92
7.90
7.89
7.77
8.12
8.17
8.49

(-1 week)

6.68
7.28
7.38
7.62
7.64
7.74
7.87
7.87
7.84
7.74
8.11
8.12
8.48

(-1 month)
7.25
7.45
7.47
7.55
7.53

8.08
7.88
7.83
7.78
7.63
8.09
8.09
7.82

7.50
Yield (%)

Indonesia Government Bonds Yield
Maturities (Year)
8-Aug
01
6.55
02
7.10
03

7.30
04
7.50
05
7.59
06
7.78
07
7.87
08
7.82
09
7.83
10
7.71
15
8.08
20
8.11
30

8.49
Source: Bloomberg

6.50

5.50

4.50

01

02

03

04

05

06


07

08

09

10

15

20

30

Maturities (Year)
8-Aug

(-1 day)


(-1 week)

(-1 month)

Global Market Update


China will impose 25% retaliatory tariff to
USD 16 billion US goods. This policy would be
implemented at August 23 2018, same date as US
import tariff implementation. China will impose
tariff to fuel, steel product, medical equipment,
and auto. Even though China always retaliate
when US imposed tariff, but they have not
imposed tariff to US main export in China, crude
oil and aircraft.



Tiongkok akan mengenakan tarif sebesar 25% kepada

barang AS senilai US$ 16 miliar. Kebijakan ini sendiri
akan berlaku pada 23 Agustus 2018, bersamaan dengan
implementasi tarif AS. Adapun jenis barang yang akan
dikenai tarif oleh Tiongkok ialah bahan bakar minyak,
produk baja, hingga peralatan medis dan otomotif.
Meskipun Tiongkok selalu bereaksi terhadap
pengenaan tarif oleh AS, akan tetapi sejauh ini
Tiongkok belum mengenakan tarif impor kepada
barang-barang yang merupakan ekspor mayoritas AS di
Tiongkok, seperti minyak mentah dan pesawat terbang.



At Wednesday, August 08, US 10-year treasury
yield move downward to 2.96% after higher
tension of trade war overlooked auction bond.
Majority of global benchmark bond yield was also
move downward, indicated by 10-years UK gilt
and German bund that fell to 1.31% and 0.40%
respectively.




Yield 10-years US Treasury note pada hari Rabu,
08 Agustus 2018 ditutup turun ke level 2,96% akibat
meningkatnya tensi dagang yang menutupi dampak
dari lelang obligasi AS. Seiring dengan kondisi di pasar
obligasi AS, dari pasar obligasi global, yield acuan global
sebagian besar juga ditutup mengalami penurunan,
terlihat dari yield 10 tahun UK Gilt dan German Bund
yang ditutup turun ke level 1,31% dan 0,40%.



Hari ini, pergerakan harga SBN secara umum di pasar
sekunder diprediksi cenderung menguat terbatas
akibat turunnya yield AS. Nilai tukar rupiah terhadap
dolar AS diprediksi bergerak pada kisaran
Rp14.385 – Rp14.429 sedangkan yield benchmark 10
tahun (FR0064) pada perdagangan hari ini diperkirakan

bergerak di rentang 7,66% - 7,70%.

Domestic Market Update


Today, Government bond prices on the secondary
market are likely to strengthen moderately
because of lower US 10-years treasury yield.
Rupiah will be ranging from IDR 14,385—14,429
and yield of 10 year benchmark bond (FR0064)
will be ranging from 7.66% - 7.70%.

August 09, 2018

Last Price

Last Yield

89.60
92.50

95.35
101.00
103.35
88.50
95.25
100.75
105.05
94.20

7.65
5.00
7.16
5.00
7.63
7.96
7.75
8.17
8.10
5.00


Volume
(IDR bn)
2080
1688
1291
1146
879
710
614
516
456
451

Chg (bps)
3.58
13.64
14.38
-13.26
110.26
-18.43
-35.30
-45.16
58.17
-14.65

% Chg
0.06%
0.76%
0.84%
-0.40%
0.39%
-0.08%
-1.27%
-0.18%
0.75%
-0.12%

% YTD
-4.10%
0.44%
-1.83%
-2.2%
-5.2%
-0.53%
-17.03%
3.50%
1.16%
-2.2%

8-Aug
14,407
1.288
111.0
1.363
33.23
4.075

(-1 day)
14,429
1.294
111.4
1.364
33.22
4.076

8-Aug
(-1 week)
14,444
1.313
111.7
1.362
33.16
4.067

Consumer Price Index (MoM)
Consumer Price Index (YoY)
Core Inflation (YoY)
BI 7-Day RR Rate (%)
Foreign Reserve (US$ Bn)

Jul-18
0.28
3.18
2.87
5.25
118.3

Jun-18
0.59
3.12
2.72
5.25
119.8

May-18
0.21
3.23
2.75
4.75
122.9

Indonesia Sovereign CDS
As of
8-Aug
(-1 Day)
(-1 Week)
(-1 Month)
(-1 Year)

2-year
39.97
39.30
43.18
48.61
46.17

5-year
112.8
110.97
114.64
126.52
111.96

10-year
193.52
191.12
194.47
211.12
184.24

Most Active Government Bonds
FR0064
FR0063
FR0074
FR0069
FR0070
FR0065
FR0059
FR0072
FR0073
FR0075
Global Stock Marketss
Indonesia (JCI)
Malaysia (KLCI)
Thailand (SET)
Singapore (STI)
Hang Seng
Nikkei 225
Shanghai
Dow Jones (DJIA)
London (FTSE 100)
DAX

Last Price
6095
1805
1722
3327
28359
22644
2744
25584
7777
12634

FX Rate
USD/IDR
GBP/USD
USD/JPY
USD/SGD
USD/THB
USD/MYR
Macroeconomic Data

Most Active Corporate Bonds
SMSMII01ACN1
GNSMII01ACN1
TAXI01
DILD02A
PNBN02CN3
STTP01BCN2
BSDE02ACN1
MFIN03ACN1
MYOR01CN3
BBRI01BCN2

Last Yield

idAAA(sy)
idAAA
idBB+
idAidAA
idA
idAAidA
idAA
idAAA

99.44
99.97
12.50
100.50
98.46
103.86
100.71
99.97
95.97
101.35

7.76
6.35
16.99
10.27
6.63
9.20
8.80
7.01
7.53
8.47

8-Aug

(-1 day)

2.00
2.55
2.73
2.96
2.95

2.00
2.53
2.72
2.97
2.96

2.00
2.51
2.72
3.01
2.97

2.00
2.49
2.76
2.85
3.07

1.31
0.40
0.73
3.52
0.11
2.73
2.73
4.04
2.45

1.32
0.41
0.73
3.49
0.11
2.73
2.74
4.02
2.44

1.38
0.48
0.78
3.46
0.12
2.73
2.72
4.04
2.47

1.29
0.37
0.65
3.51
0.04
2.73
2.59
4.09
2.41

3.75
4.35
4.93

3.75
4.34
4.94

3.74
4.31
4.96

3.85
4.38
5.09

8-Aug

(-1 day)

5.05
6.42
7.00

5.04
6.40
7.01

5.01
6.43
7.08

4.96
7.18
7.35

2.07
2.34
2.52

2.07
2.34
2.52

2.08
2.35
2.53

2.07
2.34
2.51

5.73
13.7

5.75
13.8

5.75
13.2

5.68
14.4

8-Aug
98.54
95.02
94.93
100.64

(-1 day)
98.35
94.69
94.34
100.15

Change
19
32
59
49

Yield
7.45%
7.79%
8.11%
8.18%

Global Bonds
Fed Fund Rate & US T-Bonds Yield
Fed Fund Rate
2-Year
5-Year
10-Year
30-Year
10-Year Government Bond Yield
UK
Germany
France
China
Japan
Korea
Thailand
Malaysia
Singapore
Indonesia USD Bond Yield
INDO-22
INDO-27
INDO-47
Money Market
JIBOR
O/N
1M
3M
LIBOR
1M
3M
6M
Indonesia Interest Rates
Deposit 1M
Lending
Benchmark
FR0061
FR0059
FR0074
FR0072

Volume
(IDR bn)
248
166
120
90
82
80
60
50
49
40

Last Price

8-Aug
(-1 week) (- 1 month)

8-Aug
(-1 week) (- 1 month)

Government Bond Ownership As of August 07, 2018 (in Trillion)
Holders
2013
Banks
335.43
Bank Indonesia
44.44
Mutual Fund
42.50
Insurance
129.55
Foreign Investor
323.83
Pension Fund
39.47
Individual Investors
32.48
Others
47.56
Total
995.25
Source: Bloomberg, IDX & DJPPR

2014
375.55
41.63
45.79
150.60
461.35
43.30
30.41
61.32
1,209.96

2015
350.07
148.91
61.60
171.62
558.52
49.83
42.53
78.76
1,461.85

2016
399.46
134.25
85.66
238.24
665.81
87.28
57.75
104.84
1,773.28

2017
491.61
141.83
104.00
150.80
836.15
198.06
59.84
117.48
2,099.77

2-Aug-18
588.90
103.45
113.5
190.1
844.99
209.46
63.44
132.21
2,246.06

3-Aug-18
597.38
92.99
113.3
190.0
847.14
209.48
63.47
132.25
2,246.06

6-Aug-18
594.28
95.31
113.3
190.1
847.71
209.53
63.51
132.31
2,246.06

7-Aug-18
586.92
96.64
113.4
190.2
847.47
209.68
63.55
132.26
2,240.06

August 09, 2018

Government Bonds Prices
Closing Price Data : 8-Aug-2018
Series
FR0038
FR0048
FR0069
FR0036
FR0031
FR0034
FR0053
FR0061
FR0035
FR0043
FR0063
FR0046
FR0039
FR0070
FR0044
FR0040
FR0037
FR0056
FR0059
FR0042
FR0047
FR0064
FR0071
FR0052
FR0073
FR0054
FR0058
FR0074
FR0065
FR0068
FR0072
FR0045
FR0075
FR0050
FR0057
FR0062
FR0067
FR0076

Maturity
15-Aug-18
15-Sep-18
15-Apr-19
15-Sep-19
15-Nov-20
15-Jun-21
15-Jul-21
15-May-22
15-Jun-22
15-Jul-22
15-May-23
15-Jul-23
15-Aug-23
15-Mar-24
15-Sep-24
15-Sep-25
15-Sep-26
15-Sep-26
15-May-27
15-Jul-27
15-Feb-28
15-May-28
15-Mar-29
15-Aug-30
15-May-31
15-Jul-31
15-Jun-32
15-Aug-32
15-May-33
15-Mar-34
15-May-36
15-May-37
15-May-38
15-Jul-38
15-May-41
15-Apr-42
15-Jul-43
15-May-48

TTM
0.02
0.10
0.68
1.10
2.27
2.85
2.94
3.77
3.85
3.94
4.77
4.94
5.02
5.61
6.11
7.11
8.11
8.11
8.77
8.94
9.53
9.78
10.61
12.03
12.78
12.94
13.86
14.03
14.78
15.61
17.78
18.78
138.47
19.95
22.78
23.70
24.95
29.79

Source: Bloomberg, IBPA & MCS Estimates

Coupon
11.600%
9.000%
7.875%
11.500%
11.000%
12.800%
8.250%
7.000%
12.900%
10.250%
5.625%
9.500%
11.750%
8.375%
10.000%
11.000%
12.000%
8.375%
7.000%
10.250%
10.000%
6.125%
9.000%
10.500%
8.750%
9.500%
8.250%
7.500%
6.625%
8.375%
8.250%
9.750%
7.500%
10.500%
9.500%
6.375%
8.750%
7.375%

Price
100.48
100.68
101.03
105.12
108.16
114.07
102.78
98.54
117.40
108.92
92.33
107.00
116.29
102.81
110.35
116.85
124.48
103.43
95.02
114.75
113.48
89.40
107.42
118.00
105.05
110.80
100.75
94.93
87.83
101.97
100.64
113.65
94.14
120.15
110.27
78.83
102.66
88.60

YTM
-21.58%
1.94%
6.29%
6.57%
7.03%
7.23%
7.18%
7.45%
7.59%
7.58%
7.57%
7.76%
7.77%
7.74%
7.83%
7.85%
7.85%
7.79%
7.79%
7.91%
7.95%
7.69%
7.95%
8.13%
8.11%
8.13%
8.16%
8.11%
8.05%
8.15%
8.18%
8.30%
8.10%
8.40%
8.47%
8.46%
8.49%
8.49%

Price (-1)
100.27
100.57
100.98
105.17
108.07
114.02
102.44
98.35
117.20
108.71
92.17
107.00
116.20
102.47
110.20
116.64
124.40
103.03
94.69
114.66
113.41
89.06
107.04
118.00
104.43
110.61
101.25
94.34
87.54
101.40
100.15
113.649
93.81
119.75
110.02
78.83
103.02
88.62

Price Spread (bps)
20.9
11.0
5.4
-4.5
8.7
5.5
34.0
18.7
20.2
21.1
16.8
0.0
8.9
33.9
15.0
21.1
8.6
39.9
32.3
9.5
7.7
34.4
38.4
0.0
61.8
19.1
-50.0
59.2
29.0
56.9
49.1
0.0
33.3
39.5
25.2
0.0
-36.3
-2.9

August 09, 2018

Macroeconomic Indicator
IndicatorCalendar
Calendar
(19 - 23
2018)
Macroeconomic
(August
06Maret
- August
10 2018)
INDONESIA

Date

Indicator

Series
Data

Actual

Previous

Projection

06

Economic Growth Rate (QoQ)

Quarter-II

4.21%

-0.42%

2.02%

06

Economic Growth Rate (YoY)

Quarter-II

5.27%

5.06%

5.10%

06

Consumer Confidence

Jul-18

124.8

128.1

128

07

Foreign Exchange Reserves

Jul-18

10

Current Account

Quarter-II

USD 118.3 billion USD 119.8 billion USD 119 billion
-

USD -5.5 billion

USD -5.6 billion

GLOBAL

Date

Indicator

Country Series Data

07

Balance of Trade

Germany

08

Balance of Trade

China

08

Crude Oil Inventory

US

09

10-Year Note Auction

US

-

-

2.96%

-

09

Inflation Rate (YoY)

China

Jul-18

-

1.9%

2.1%

09

Wholesale Inventories
(MoM)

US

Jun-18

-

0.4%

0%

09

Initial Jobless Claims

US

Week Ended,
Aug 04-2018

-

218 thousand

217 thousand

09

Continuing Jobless
Claims

US

Week Ended,
July 28-2018

-

1724 thousand

1736 thousand

10

Econ. Growth Annualized Prelim.

Japan

Quarter-II

-

-0.6%

0.9%

10

Econ. Growth Prelim. United
(YoY)
Kingdom

Quarter-II

-

1.2%

1.4%

10

Inflation Rate (YoY)

Jul-18

-

2.9%

2.9%

US

Actual

Previous

Projection

Jun-18

EUR 21.8 billion

EUR 19.7 billion

EUR 24.5 billion

Jul-18

USD 28.05 billion

USD 41.47 billion

USD 26 billion

Week Ended,
-1.35 million barrel 3.80 million barrel -1.40 million barrel
Aug 03 - 2018

Source: Tradingeconomics, Bloomberg, and MCS Estimates (2018)

August 09, 2018

PT. MEGA CAPITAL SEKURITAS
Head Office
Menara Bank Mega Lt. 2
Jl. Kapten P. Tendean Kav 12-14A
Jakarta 12790

Dealing Room
Phone No

: +62 21 7995795

Fax No

: +62 21 79175965

Eva Sarah Hutabarat

[email protected]

Head of Debt Capital
Market

Cicih Sukaesih

[email protected]

Debt Sales

Emilda Mardiyanti

[email protected]

Debt Sales

Ajeng Palupi P.

[email protected]

Debt Sales

Qolbie Ardie

[email protected]

Economist &
Fixed Income Analyst

Siti Maulina M.

[email protected]

Administrative
Assistant

DISCLAIMER
This Document is for information only and for the use of the recipient. It is not to be reproduced or copied or made available to others. Under no
circumstances is it to be considered as an offer to sell or solicitation to buy any security. Any recommendation contained in this report may not be
suitable for all investors and strictly a personal view and should not be used as a sole judgment for investment. Moreover, although the information
contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, its accuracy, completeness and reliability cannot be guaranteed. All rights
reserved by PT Mega Capital Sekuritas.