Analisis Faktor-Faktor yang Mempengaruhi Permintaan dan Penawaran Jagung di Provinsi Sumatera Utara
73
LAMPIRAN
Lampiran 1. Data-Data yang Dipakai untuk Mengestimasi Permintaan dan
Penawaran Jagung Sumetera Utara.
Tahun
Qd a
(Ton)
Qs a
(Ton)
HJG b
(Rupiah)
HJG (-1) b
(Rupiah)
1999Q1 346185
143866
700
1999Q2 337805
152988
757
1999Q3 348520
159478
741
1999Q4 358177
163335
715
2000Q1 359652
170816
819
2000Q2 348441
176619
848
2000Q3 355549
164593
806
2000Q4 347626
154738
777
2001Q1 323730
158026
821
2001Q2 308214
161175
820
2001Q3 312803
160115
794
2001Q4 331798
154847
768
2002Q1 330248
157352
753
2002Q2 354582
157735
748
2002Q3 332924
160340
761
2002Q4 338661
165167
731
2003Q1 371560
165563
730
2003Q2 362786
166688
733
2003Q3 381283
177403
707
2003Q4 386149
177707
707
2004Q1 405572
180397
765
2004Q2 383173
182142
749
2004Q3 389950
189013
755
2004Q4 381205
161009
738
2005Q1 373832
176562
809
2005Q2 386577
187218
796
2005Q3 381487
184192
771
2005Q4 392506
187484
694
2006Q1 392520
186185
766
2006Q2 395941
172234
768
Sumber : a. Ketahanan Pangan Sumatera Utara
b. Badan Pusat Statistik Sumatera Utara
700
757
741
715
819
848
806
777
821
820
794
768
753
748
761
731
730
733
707
707
765
749
755
738
809
796
771
694
766
JPSU b
(Juta Jiwa)
PKP b
(Rupiah)
LPJ b
(Ha)
11.955
11.955
11.955
11.955
11.514
11.514
11.514
11.514
11.723
11.723
11.723
11.723
11.847
11.847
11.847
11.847
11.992
11.992
11.992
11.992
12.123
12.123
12.123
12.123
12.327
12.327
12.327
12.327
12.643
12.643
1223500
1244153
1274355
1226403
1311548
1308408
1290470
1241553
1373235
1329108
1271874
1223309
1325144
1311504
1294163
1236304
1416949
1423211
1419945
1371663
1526407
1490777
1480709
1442342
1623887
1589086
1529585
1347296
1486472
1482174
59523
49355
45215
47103
63954
58957
52978
46017
52312
54684
50863
40850
58547
53468
47130
39534
57826
54993
51280
46687
57801
58426
54034
44624
62349
61647
54291
40282
55133
53869
Universitas Sumatera Utara
74
Lanjutan Lampiran 1. Data-Data yang Dipakai untuk Mengestimasi
Permintaan dan Penawaran Jagung Sumetera
Utara.
Tahun
Qd a
(Ton)
Qs a
(Ton)
HJG b
(Rupiah)
HJG (-1) b
(Rupiah)
2006Q3 434342 168535
772
768
2006Q4 383846 155088
753
772
2007Q1 382704 198571
862
753
2007Q2 381217 188694
903
862
2007Q3 378871 196274
888
903
2007Q4 384518 211312
864
888
2008Q1 383420 289780
924
864
2008Q2 380302 283642
944
924
2008Q3 357433 261673
925
944
2008Q4 394762 263874
908
925
2009Q1 416626 300751
949
908
2009Q2 399710 297534
962
949
2009Q3 408153 280033
940
962
2009Q4 387219 288249
978
940
2010Q1 409193 364536
926
978
2010Q2 472847 352086
816
926
2010Q3 417052 328205
888
816
2010Q4 415082 322892
858
888
2011Q1 420080 308146
937
858
2011Q2 449021 322555
937
937
2011Q3 430439 255877
941
937
2011Q4 438644 198112
949
941
2012Q1 478266 321912
945
949
2012Q2 454664 354414
947
945
2012Q3 439056 348027
974
947
2012Q4 426570 312751
968
974
2013Q1 432258 254058
1002
968
2013Q2 446938 381088
985
1002
2013Q3 397251 310089
978
985
2013Q4 433991 253709
984
978
Sumber : a. Ketahanan Pangan Sumatera Utara
b. Badan Pusat Statistik Sumatera Utara
JPSU b
(Juta Jiwa)
PKP b
(Rupiah)
LPJ b
(Ha)
12.643
12.643
12.834
12.834
12.834
12.834
13.042
13.042
13.042
13.042
13.248
13.248
13.248
13.248
12.982
12.982
12.982
12.982
13.104
13.104
13.104
13.104
13.215
13.215
13.215
13.215
13.326
13.326
13.326
13.326
1469536
1422728
1562059
1570067
1538527
1490821
1729806
1664075
1628094
1592424
1755970
1758960
1702604
1696159
1927112
1887105
1857022
1805739
2045422
2044399
1976602
1981953
2183190
2152198
2135541
2114606
2172619
2122527
2049563
2014511
49404
41740
57176
60484
59125
53098
62859
65827
61587
50140
70064
67592
60711
49419
75572
75571
68705
54974
68803
69272
54144
23421
69972
54230
71541
51167
49953
75575
60472
75684
Universitas Sumatera Utara
75
Lampiran 2. Data-Data PKP Nominal, Inflasi, dan Index Harga Konsumen
Sumatera Utara.
PKP Nominal a
Inflasi a
(Rupiah)
1223500
1223500
1223500
1223500
1312500
1312500
1312500
1312500
1506000
1506000
1506000
1506000
1671500
1671500
1671500
1671500
1937000
1937000
1937000
1937000
2176000
2176000
2176000
2176000
2530000
2530000
2530000
2530000
2833500
2833500
(dalam %)
1.81
-1.66
-2.37
3.91
0.31
0.24
1.39
3.94
3.74
3.32
4.5
3.97
2.46
1.04
1.34
4.68
1.11
-0.44
0.23
3.52
0.95
2.39
0.68
2.66
3.27
2.19
3.89
13.53
1.51
0.29
Tahun
1999Q1
1999Q2
1999Q3
1999Q4
2000Q1
2000Q2
2000Q3
2000Q4
2001Q1
2001Q2
2001Q3
2001Q4
2002Q1
2002Q2
2002Q3
2002Q4
2003Q1
2003Q2
2003Q3
2003Q4
2004Q1
2004Q2
2004Q3
2004Q4
2005Q1
2005Q2
2005Q3
2005Q4
2006Q1
2006Q2
Index Harga
Konsumen
(IHK)
100
98
96
100
100
100
102
106
110
113
118
123
126
127
129
135
137
136
136
141
143
146
147
151
156
159
165
188
191
191
Sumber : a. Badan Pusat Statistik Sumatera Utara
*Harga telah dideflasi dengan IHK (Indeks Harga Konsumen) tahun 1999=100
Universitas Sumatera Utara
76
Lanjutan Lampiran 2. Data-Data PKP Nominal, Inflasi, dan Index Harga
Konsumen Sumatera Utara.
Tahun
2006Q3
2006Q4
2007Q1
2007Q2
2007Q3
2007Q4
2008Q1
2008Q2
2008Q3
2008Q4
2009Q1
2009Q2
2009Q3
2009Q4
2010Q1
2010Q2
2010Q3
2010Q4
2011Q1
2011Q2
2011Q3
2011Q4
2012Q1
2012Q2
2012Q3
2012Q4
2013Q1
2013Q2
2013Q3
2013Q4
PKP Nominal a
Inflasi a
(Rupiah)
2833500
2833500
3164500
3164500
3164500
3164500
3755500
3755500
3755500
3755500
4106000
4106000
4106000
4106000
4715000
4715000
4715000
4715000
5359000
5359000
5359000
5359000
5935000
5935000
5935000
5935000
6246000
6246000
6246000
6246000
(%)
0.86
3.29
1.72
-0.51
2.05
3.2
2.28
3.95
2.21
2.24
-0.85
-0.17
3.31
0.38
1.07
2.12
1.62
2.84
0.34
0.05
3.43
-0.27
0.54
1.44
0.78
0.99
2.43
2.36
3.56
1.74
Index Harga
Konsumen
(IHK)
193
199
203
202
206
212
217
226
231
236
234
233
241
242
245
250
254
261
262
262
271
270
272
276
278
281
287
294
305
310
Sumber : a. Badan Pusat Statistik Sumatera Utara
*Harga telah dideflasi dengan IHK (Indeks Harga Konsumen) tahun 1999=100
Universitas Sumatera Utara
77
Lampiran 3. Hasil Estimasi Permintaan Jagung Sumatera Utara.
Dependent Variable: QD
Method: Least Squares
Date: 04/17/15 Time: 01:36
Sample: 1999Q1 2013Q4
Included observations: 60
Variable
Coefficient
Std. Error
t-Statistic
Prob.
C
HJG
JPSU
PKP
45124.15
-253.0106
27715.41
0.129813
69185.63
43.27852
7485.871
0.015885
0.652219
-5.846100
3.702363
8.172011
0.5169
0.0000
0.0005
0.0000
R-squared
Adjusted R-squared
S.E. of regression
Sum squared resid
Log likelihood
F-statistic
Prob(F-statistic)
0.839848
0.831268
16051.60
1.44E+10
-664.0804
97.88923
0.000000
Mean dependent var
S.D. dependent var
Akaike info criterion
Schwarz criterion
Hannan-Quinn criter.
Durbin-Watson stat
387565.5
39076.90
22.26935
22.40897
22.32396
1.528100
Diolah dengan eviews 8.0
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78
Lampiran 4. Hasil Pengujian Normalitas Permintaan Jagung Sumatera
Utara.
10
Series: Residuals
Sample 1999Q1 2013Q4
Observations 60
8
6
4
2
0
-40000 -30000 -20000 -10000
0
10000
20000
30000
Mean
Median
Maximum
Minimum
Std. Dev.
Skewness
Kurtosis
-1.65e-10
-1807.163
43371.84
-35823.40
15638.19
0.364809
3.230293
Jarque-Bera
Probability
1.463441
0.481081
40000
Diolah dengan eviews 8.0
Universitas Sumatera Utara
79
Lampiran 5. Hasil Uji Multikolinearitas Harga Jagung Terhadap Variabel
Independen Lain Untuk Persamaan Permintaan Jagung
Sumatera Utara.
Dependent Variable: HJG
Method: Least Squares
Date: 04/17/15 Time: 00:57
Sample: 1999Q1 2013Q4
Included observations: 60
Variable
Coefficient
Std. Error
t-Statistic
Prob.
C
JPSU
PKP
-168.0585
60.23796
0.000159
210.5682
21.47617
4.38E-05
-0.798119
2.804874
3.622278
0.4281
0.0069
0.0006
R-squared
Adjusted R-squared
S.E. of regression
Sum squared resid
Log likelihood
F-statistic
Prob(F-statistic)
0.740564
0.731461
49.12567
137559.9
-317.2604
81.35381
0.000000
Mean dependent var
S.D. dependent var
Akaike info criterion
Schwarz criterion
Hannan-Quinn criter.
Durbin-Watson stat
840.9000
94.79929
10.67535
10.78006
10.71631
0.500353
Diolah dengan eviews 8.0
Universitas Sumatera Utara
80
Lampiran 6. Hasil Uji Multikolinearitas Pendapatan Per Kapita Terhadap
Variabel Independen Lain Untuk Persamaan Permintaan
Jagung Sumatera Utara.
Dependent Variable: PKP
Method: Least Squares
Date: 04/17/15 Time: 01:09
Sample: 1999Q1 2013Q4
Included observations: 60
Variable
Coefficient
Std. Error
t-Statistic
Prob.
C
HJG
JPSU
-2853626.
1178.536
276677.6
435816.2
325.3576
50528.67
-6.547774
3.622278
5.475655
0.0000
0.0006
0.0000
R-squared
Adjusted R-squared
S.E. of regression
Sum squared resid
Log likelihood
F-statistic
Prob(F-statistic)
0.806526
0.799738
133842.2
1.02E+12
-791.8625
118.8067
0.000000
Mean dependent var
S.D. dependent var
Akaike info criterion
Schwarz criterion
Hannan-Quinn criter.
Durbin-Watson stat
1602791.
299084.2
26.49542
26.60014
26.53638
0.306865
Diolah dengan eviews 8.0
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81
Lampiran 7. Hasil Uji Multikolinearitas Jumlah Penduduk Terhadap
Variabel Independen Lain Untuk Persamaan Permintaan
Jagung Sumatera Utara.
Dependent Variable: JPSU
Method: Least Squares
Date: 04/17/15 Time: 00:57
Sample: 1999Q1 2013Q4
Included observations: 60
Variable
C
HJG
PKP
R-squared
Adjusted R-squared
S.E. of regression
Sum squared resid
Log likelihood
F-statistic
Prob(F-statistic)
Coefficient
Std. Error
t-Statistic
Prob.
8.835097
0.002013
1.25E-06
0.359303
0.000718
2.28E-07
24.58954
2.804874
5.475655
0.0000
0.0069
0.0000
0.790857
0.783518
0.284013
4.597821
-8.073453
107.7702
0.000000
Mean dependent var
S.D. dependent var
Akaike info criterion
Schwarz criterion
Hannan-Quinn criter.
Durbin-Watson stat
12.52500
0.610419
0.369115
0.473832
0.410076
0.339463
Diolah dengan eviews 8.0
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82
Lampiran 8. Hasil Uji Autokorelasi Persamaan Permintaan Jagung
Sumatera Utara.
Breusch-Godfrey Serial Correlation LM Test:
F-statistic
Obs*R-squared
1.825544
3.799846
Prob. F(2,54)
Prob. Chi-Square(2)
0.1709
0.1496
Test Equation:
Dependent Variable: RESID
Method: Least Squares
Date: 04/17/15 Time: 01:38
Sample: 1999Q1 2013Q4
Included observations: 60
Presample missing value lagged residuals set to zero.
Variable
Coefficient
Std. Error
t-Statistic
Prob.
C
HJG
JPSU
PKP
RESID(-1)
RESID(-2)
-8878.660
-11.80763
1555.951
-0.000443
0.207186
0.110526
68374.68
43.31618
7437.802
0.015659
0.136869
0.145690
-0.129853
-0.272592
0.209195
-0.028272
1.513755
0.758635
0.8972
0.7862
0.8351
0.9775
0.1359
0.4514
R-squared
Adjusted R-squared
S.E. of regression
Sum squared resid
Log likelihood
F-statistic
Prob(F-statistic)
0.063331
-0.023398
15820.08
1.35E+10
-662.1176
0.730218
0.603886
Mean dependent var
S.D. dependent var
Akaike info criterion
Schwarz criterion
Hannan-Quinn criter.
Durbin-Watson stat
-1.65E-10
15638.19
22.27059
22.48002
22.35251
1.952289
Diolah dengan eviews 8.0
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83
Lampiran 9. Hasil Uji Heteroskedastitas Persamaan Permintaan Jagung
Sumatera Utara.
Heteroskedasticity Test: White
F-statistic
Obs*R-squared
Scaled explained SS
2.153015
16.75809
16.27908
Prob. F(9,50)
Prob. Chi-Square(9)
Prob. Chi-Square(9)
0.0418
0.0526
0.0613
Test Equation:
Dependent Variable: RESID^2
Method: Least Squares
Date: 04/17/15 Time: 01:39
Sample: 1999Q1 2013Q4
Included observations: 60
Variable
Coefficient
Std. Error
t-Statistic
Prob.
C
HJG^2
HJG*JPSU
HJG*PKP
HJG
JPSU^2
JPSU*PKP
JPSU
PKP^2
PKP
1.12E+11
1306.003
-6978651.
2.992795
78477664
1.15E+09
211.4718
-2.31E+10
-0.000949
-1823.111
9.55E+10
24756.24
3688732.
12.86004
31941471
8.87E+08
3266.941
1.83E+10
0.003317
30263.59
1.172022
0.052754
-1.891884
0.232721
2.456921
1.298540
0.064731
-1.259711
-0.286204
-0.060241
0.2467
0.9581
0.0643
0.8169
0.0175
0.2001
0.9486
0.2136
0.7759
0.9522
R-squared
Adjusted R-squared
S.E. of regression
Sum squared resid
Log likelihood
F-statistic
Prob(F-statistic)
0.279301
0.149576
3.34E+08
5.58E+18
-1257.262
2.153015
0.041815
Mean dependent var
S.D. dependent var
Akaike info criterion
Schwarz criterion
Hannan-Quinn criter.
Durbin-Watson stat
2.40E+08
3.62E+08
42.24208
42.59114
42.37861
2.528489
Diolah dengan eviews 8.0
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84
Lampiran 10. Hasil Estimasi Penawaran Jagung Sumatera Utara.
Dependent Variable: QS
Method: Least Squares
Date: 04/17/15 Time: 01:55
Sample (adjusted): 1999Q2 2013Q4
Included observations: 59 after adjustments
Variable
Coefficient
Std. Error
t-Statistic
Prob.
C
HJG
HJG(-1)
LPJ
-378516.1
37.90631
536.8887
2.373997
53936.76
151.3603
145.6358
0.641045
-7.017777
0.250438
3.686517
3.703323
0.0000
0.8032
0.0005
0.0005
R-squared
Adjusted R-squared
S.E. of regression
Sum squared resid
Log likelihood
F-statistic
Prob(F-statistic)
0.713839
0.698230
43930.50
1.06E+11
-712.3778
45.73317
0.000000
Mean dependent var
S.D. dependent var
Akaike info criterion
Schwarz criterion
Hannan-Quinn criter.
Durbin-Watson stat
237305.2
79970.22
24.28399
24.42484
24.33898
1.478911
Diolah dengan eviews 8.0
Universitas Sumatera Utara
85
Lampiran 11. Hasil Pengujian Normalitas Penawaran Jagung Sumatera
Utara.
9
Series: Residuals
Sample 1999Q2 2013Q4
Observations 59
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
Mean
Median
Maximum
Minimum
Std. Dev.
Skewness
Kurtosis
2.96e-11
-3469.823
142446.3
-109825.4
42779.28
0.452375
4.403592
Jarque-Bera
Probability
6.855415
0.032461
0
-80000
-40000
0
40000
80000
120000
Diolah dengan eviews 8.0
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Lampiran 12. Hasil Multikolinearitas Harga Jagung Terhadap Variabel
Independen Lain Untuk Persamaan Penawaran Jagung
Sumatera Utara.
Dependent Variable: HJG
Method: Least Squares
Date: 04/17/15 Time: 01:58
Sample (adjusted): 2001Q3 2013Q4
Included observations: 50 after adjustments
Variable
Coefficient
Std. Error
t-Statistic
Prob.
C
HJG(-1)
LPJ
185.4269
0.593439
0.003218
111.1281
0.129897
0.000998
1.668587
4.568542
3.223533
0.1018
0.0000
0.0023
R-squared
Adjusted R-squared
S.E. of regression
Sum squared resid
Log likelihood
F-statistic
Prob(F-statistic)
0.447007
0.423475
73.84909
256323.4
-284.5012
18.99601
0.000001
Mean dependent var
S.D. dependent var
Akaike info criterion
Schwarz criterion
Hannan-Quinn criter.
Durbin-Watson stat
853.0000
97.26043
11.50005
11.61477
11.54374
0.493666
Diolah dengan eviews 8.0
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87
Lampiran 13. Hasil Uji Multikolinearitas Harga Jagung Tahun Sebelumnya
Terhadap Variabel Independen Lain Untuk Persamaan
Penawaran Jagung Sumatera Utara.
Dependent Variable: HJG(-1)
Method: Least Squares
Date: 04/17/15 Time: 02:00
Sample (adjusted): 2001Q3 2013Q4
Included observations: 50 after adjustments
Variable
Coefficient
Std. Error
t-Statistic
Prob.
C
HJG
LPJ
412.6984
0.518193
-0.000685
88.30939
0.113426
0.001026
4.673324
4.568542
-0.668087
0.0000
0.0000
0.5073
R-squared
Adjusted R-squared
S.E. of regression
Sum squared resid
Log likelihood
F-statistic
Prob(F-statistic)
0.331099
0.302635
69.00852
223822.3
-281.1115
11.63224
0.000079
Mean dependent var
S.D. dependent var
Akaike info criterion
Schwarz criterion
Hannan-Quinn criter.
Durbin-Watson stat
815.6200
82.63663
11.36446
11.47918
11.40815
0.460901
Diolah dengan eviews 8.0
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Lampiran 14. Hasil Uji Multikolinearitas Luas Panen Jagung Terhadap
Variabel Independen Lain Untuk Persamaan Penawaran
Jagung Sumatera Utara.
Dependent Variable: LPJ
Method: Least Squares
Date: 04/17/15 Time: 02:11
Sample (adjusted): 1999Q2 2013Q4
Included observations: 59 after adjustments
Variable
Coefficient
Std. Error
t-Statistic
Prob.
C
HJG
HJG(-1)
12744.49
66.51622
-14.93596
11113.79
30.27431
30.29318
1.146728
2.197118
-0.493047
0.2564
0.0322
0.6239
R-squared
Adjusted R-squared
S.E. of regression
Sum squared resid
Log likelihood
F-statistic
Prob(F-statistic)
0.236261
0.208985
9157.641
4.70E+09
-620.3962
8.661758
0.000528
Mean dependent var
S.D. dependent var
Akaike info criterion
Schwarz criterion
Hannan-Quinn criter.
Durbin-Watson stat
56313.41
10296.54
21.13207
21.23771
21.17331
1.962608
Diolah dengan eviews 8.0
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Lampiran 15. Hasil Uji Autokorelasi Persamaan Penawaran Jagung
Sumatera Utara.
Breusch-Godfrey Serial Correlation LM Test:
F-statistic
Obs*R-squared
1.986711
4.114759
Prob. F(2,53)
Prob. Chi-Square(2)
0.1472
0.1278
Test Equation:
Dependent Variable: RESID
Method: Least Squares
Date: 04/17/15 Time: 02:08
Sample: 1999Q2 2013Q4
Included observations: 59
Presample missing value lagged residuals set to zero.
Variable
Coefficient
Std. Error
t-Statistic
Prob.
C
HJG
HJG(-1)
LPJ
RESID(-1)
RESID(-2)
23888.62
-67.04910
52.06706
-0.209065
0.220508
0.162025
54673.07
152.8494
145.5417
0.638960
0.146343
0.150474
0.436936
-0.438661
0.357747
-0.327196
1.506785
1.076764
0.6639
0.6627
0.7220
0.7448
0.1378
0.2865
R-squared
Adjusted R-squared
S.E. of regression
Sum squared resid
Log likelihood
F-statistic
Prob(F-statistic)
0.069742
-0.018019
43162.97
9.87E+10
-710.2452
0.794684
0.558354
Mean dependent var
S.D. dependent var
Akaike info criterion
Schwarz criterion
Hannan-Quinn criter.
Durbin-Watson stat
2.96E-11
42779.28
24.27950
24.49077
24.36197
1.926617
Diolah dengan eviews 8.0
Universitas Sumatera Utara
90
Lampiran 16. Hasil Uji Heteroskedastistas Persamaan Penawaran Jagung
Sumatera Utara.
Heteroskedasticity Test: White
F-statistic
Obs*R-squared
Scaled explained SS
0.904961
8.409084
12.43591
Prob. F(9,49)
Prob. Chi-Square(9)
Prob. Chi-Square(9)
0.5285
0.4935
0.1898
Test Equation:
Dependent Variable: RESID^2
Method: Least Squares
Date: 04/17/15 Time: 02:09
Sample: 1999Q2 2013Q4
Included observations: 59
Variable
Coefficient
Std. Error
t-Statistic
Prob.
C
HJG^2
HJG*HJG(-1)
HJG*LPJ
HJG
HJG(-1)^2
HJG(-1)*LPJ
HJG(-1)
LPJ^2
LPJ
-3.63E+10
-124612.8
110673.2
742.8126
77564088
-19053.38
-658.0720
-11471983
-2.141467
162367.6
5.89E+10
237875.7
386763.0
1411.477
1.68E+08
218382.5
1649.620
1.50E+08
3.139247
674863.6
-0.616214
-0.523857
0.286153
0.526266
0.461340
-0.087248
-0.398923
-0.076265
-0.682159
0.240593
0.5406
0.6027
0.7760
0.6011
0.6466
0.9308
0.6917
0.9395
0.4984
0.8109
R-squared
Adjusted R-squared
S.E. of regression
Sum squared resid
Log likelihood
F-statistic
Prob(F-statistic)
0.142527
-0.014968
3.37E+09
5.57E+20
-1372.635
0.904961
0.528475
Mean dependent var
S.D. dependent var
Akaike info criterion
Schwarz criterion
Hannan-Quinn criter.
Durbin-Watson stat
1.80E+09
3.35E+09
46.86897
47.22110
47.00643
2.159199
Diolah dengan eviews 8.0
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Lampiran 17. Perkembangan Ekspor dan Impor Jagung Indonesia
Tahun
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
Impor
ton
1,098,354
299,917
618,060
1,264,575
1,035,797
1,154,063
1,345,446
1,088,928
185,597
1,775,321
701,953
286,541
338,798
1,527,516
3,207,657
1,692,994
3,191,045
Ekspor
ton
18,957
624,942
90,647
28,066
90,474
16,306
33,691
32,679
54,009
28,074
101,740
107,001
62,575
41,954
12,717
34,899
7,932
Neraca
ton
(1,079,397)
325,025
(527,413)
(1,236,509)
(945,323)
(1,137,757)
(1,311,755)
(1,056,248)
(131,589)
(1,747,247)
(600,213)
(179,540)
(276,222)
(1,485,562)
(3,194,940)
(1,658,096)
(3,183,113)
Sumber : UN Comtrade
Universitas Sumatera Utara
LAMPIRAN
Lampiran 1. Data-Data yang Dipakai untuk Mengestimasi Permintaan dan
Penawaran Jagung Sumetera Utara.
Tahun
Qd a
(Ton)
Qs a
(Ton)
HJG b
(Rupiah)
HJG (-1) b
(Rupiah)
1999Q1 346185
143866
700
1999Q2 337805
152988
757
1999Q3 348520
159478
741
1999Q4 358177
163335
715
2000Q1 359652
170816
819
2000Q2 348441
176619
848
2000Q3 355549
164593
806
2000Q4 347626
154738
777
2001Q1 323730
158026
821
2001Q2 308214
161175
820
2001Q3 312803
160115
794
2001Q4 331798
154847
768
2002Q1 330248
157352
753
2002Q2 354582
157735
748
2002Q3 332924
160340
761
2002Q4 338661
165167
731
2003Q1 371560
165563
730
2003Q2 362786
166688
733
2003Q3 381283
177403
707
2003Q4 386149
177707
707
2004Q1 405572
180397
765
2004Q2 383173
182142
749
2004Q3 389950
189013
755
2004Q4 381205
161009
738
2005Q1 373832
176562
809
2005Q2 386577
187218
796
2005Q3 381487
184192
771
2005Q4 392506
187484
694
2006Q1 392520
186185
766
2006Q2 395941
172234
768
Sumber : a. Ketahanan Pangan Sumatera Utara
b. Badan Pusat Statistik Sumatera Utara
700
757
741
715
819
848
806
777
821
820
794
768
753
748
761
731
730
733
707
707
765
749
755
738
809
796
771
694
766
JPSU b
(Juta Jiwa)
PKP b
(Rupiah)
LPJ b
(Ha)
11.955
11.955
11.955
11.955
11.514
11.514
11.514
11.514
11.723
11.723
11.723
11.723
11.847
11.847
11.847
11.847
11.992
11.992
11.992
11.992
12.123
12.123
12.123
12.123
12.327
12.327
12.327
12.327
12.643
12.643
1223500
1244153
1274355
1226403
1311548
1308408
1290470
1241553
1373235
1329108
1271874
1223309
1325144
1311504
1294163
1236304
1416949
1423211
1419945
1371663
1526407
1490777
1480709
1442342
1623887
1589086
1529585
1347296
1486472
1482174
59523
49355
45215
47103
63954
58957
52978
46017
52312
54684
50863
40850
58547
53468
47130
39534
57826
54993
51280
46687
57801
58426
54034
44624
62349
61647
54291
40282
55133
53869
Universitas Sumatera Utara
74
Lanjutan Lampiran 1. Data-Data yang Dipakai untuk Mengestimasi
Permintaan dan Penawaran Jagung Sumetera
Utara.
Tahun
Qd a
(Ton)
Qs a
(Ton)
HJG b
(Rupiah)
HJG (-1) b
(Rupiah)
2006Q3 434342 168535
772
768
2006Q4 383846 155088
753
772
2007Q1 382704 198571
862
753
2007Q2 381217 188694
903
862
2007Q3 378871 196274
888
903
2007Q4 384518 211312
864
888
2008Q1 383420 289780
924
864
2008Q2 380302 283642
944
924
2008Q3 357433 261673
925
944
2008Q4 394762 263874
908
925
2009Q1 416626 300751
949
908
2009Q2 399710 297534
962
949
2009Q3 408153 280033
940
962
2009Q4 387219 288249
978
940
2010Q1 409193 364536
926
978
2010Q2 472847 352086
816
926
2010Q3 417052 328205
888
816
2010Q4 415082 322892
858
888
2011Q1 420080 308146
937
858
2011Q2 449021 322555
937
937
2011Q3 430439 255877
941
937
2011Q4 438644 198112
949
941
2012Q1 478266 321912
945
949
2012Q2 454664 354414
947
945
2012Q3 439056 348027
974
947
2012Q4 426570 312751
968
974
2013Q1 432258 254058
1002
968
2013Q2 446938 381088
985
1002
2013Q3 397251 310089
978
985
2013Q4 433991 253709
984
978
Sumber : a. Ketahanan Pangan Sumatera Utara
b. Badan Pusat Statistik Sumatera Utara
JPSU b
(Juta Jiwa)
PKP b
(Rupiah)
LPJ b
(Ha)
12.643
12.643
12.834
12.834
12.834
12.834
13.042
13.042
13.042
13.042
13.248
13.248
13.248
13.248
12.982
12.982
12.982
12.982
13.104
13.104
13.104
13.104
13.215
13.215
13.215
13.215
13.326
13.326
13.326
13.326
1469536
1422728
1562059
1570067
1538527
1490821
1729806
1664075
1628094
1592424
1755970
1758960
1702604
1696159
1927112
1887105
1857022
1805739
2045422
2044399
1976602
1981953
2183190
2152198
2135541
2114606
2172619
2122527
2049563
2014511
49404
41740
57176
60484
59125
53098
62859
65827
61587
50140
70064
67592
60711
49419
75572
75571
68705
54974
68803
69272
54144
23421
69972
54230
71541
51167
49953
75575
60472
75684
Universitas Sumatera Utara
75
Lampiran 2. Data-Data PKP Nominal, Inflasi, dan Index Harga Konsumen
Sumatera Utara.
PKP Nominal a
Inflasi a
(Rupiah)
1223500
1223500
1223500
1223500
1312500
1312500
1312500
1312500
1506000
1506000
1506000
1506000
1671500
1671500
1671500
1671500
1937000
1937000
1937000
1937000
2176000
2176000
2176000
2176000
2530000
2530000
2530000
2530000
2833500
2833500
(dalam %)
1.81
-1.66
-2.37
3.91
0.31
0.24
1.39
3.94
3.74
3.32
4.5
3.97
2.46
1.04
1.34
4.68
1.11
-0.44
0.23
3.52
0.95
2.39
0.68
2.66
3.27
2.19
3.89
13.53
1.51
0.29
Tahun
1999Q1
1999Q2
1999Q3
1999Q4
2000Q1
2000Q2
2000Q3
2000Q4
2001Q1
2001Q2
2001Q3
2001Q4
2002Q1
2002Q2
2002Q3
2002Q4
2003Q1
2003Q2
2003Q3
2003Q4
2004Q1
2004Q2
2004Q3
2004Q4
2005Q1
2005Q2
2005Q3
2005Q4
2006Q1
2006Q2
Index Harga
Konsumen
(IHK)
100
98
96
100
100
100
102
106
110
113
118
123
126
127
129
135
137
136
136
141
143
146
147
151
156
159
165
188
191
191
Sumber : a. Badan Pusat Statistik Sumatera Utara
*Harga telah dideflasi dengan IHK (Indeks Harga Konsumen) tahun 1999=100
Universitas Sumatera Utara
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Lanjutan Lampiran 2. Data-Data PKP Nominal, Inflasi, dan Index Harga
Konsumen Sumatera Utara.
Tahun
2006Q3
2006Q4
2007Q1
2007Q2
2007Q3
2007Q4
2008Q1
2008Q2
2008Q3
2008Q4
2009Q1
2009Q2
2009Q3
2009Q4
2010Q1
2010Q2
2010Q3
2010Q4
2011Q1
2011Q2
2011Q3
2011Q4
2012Q1
2012Q2
2012Q3
2012Q4
2013Q1
2013Q2
2013Q3
2013Q4
PKP Nominal a
Inflasi a
(Rupiah)
2833500
2833500
3164500
3164500
3164500
3164500
3755500
3755500
3755500
3755500
4106000
4106000
4106000
4106000
4715000
4715000
4715000
4715000
5359000
5359000
5359000
5359000
5935000
5935000
5935000
5935000
6246000
6246000
6246000
6246000
(%)
0.86
3.29
1.72
-0.51
2.05
3.2
2.28
3.95
2.21
2.24
-0.85
-0.17
3.31
0.38
1.07
2.12
1.62
2.84
0.34
0.05
3.43
-0.27
0.54
1.44
0.78
0.99
2.43
2.36
3.56
1.74
Index Harga
Konsumen
(IHK)
193
199
203
202
206
212
217
226
231
236
234
233
241
242
245
250
254
261
262
262
271
270
272
276
278
281
287
294
305
310
Sumber : a. Badan Pusat Statistik Sumatera Utara
*Harga telah dideflasi dengan IHK (Indeks Harga Konsumen) tahun 1999=100
Universitas Sumatera Utara
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Lampiran 3. Hasil Estimasi Permintaan Jagung Sumatera Utara.
Dependent Variable: QD
Method: Least Squares
Date: 04/17/15 Time: 01:36
Sample: 1999Q1 2013Q4
Included observations: 60
Variable
Coefficient
Std. Error
t-Statistic
Prob.
C
HJG
JPSU
PKP
45124.15
-253.0106
27715.41
0.129813
69185.63
43.27852
7485.871
0.015885
0.652219
-5.846100
3.702363
8.172011
0.5169
0.0000
0.0005
0.0000
R-squared
Adjusted R-squared
S.E. of regression
Sum squared resid
Log likelihood
F-statistic
Prob(F-statistic)
0.839848
0.831268
16051.60
1.44E+10
-664.0804
97.88923
0.000000
Mean dependent var
S.D. dependent var
Akaike info criterion
Schwarz criterion
Hannan-Quinn criter.
Durbin-Watson stat
387565.5
39076.90
22.26935
22.40897
22.32396
1.528100
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Lampiran 4. Hasil Pengujian Normalitas Permintaan Jagung Sumatera
Utara.
10
Series: Residuals
Sample 1999Q1 2013Q4
Observations 60
8
6
4
2
0
-40000 -30000 -20000 -10000
0
10000
20000
30000
Mean
Median
Maximum
Minimum
Std. Dev.
Skewness
Kurtosis
-1.65e-10
-1807.163
43371.84
-35823.40
15638.19
0.364809
3.230293
Jarque-Bera
Probability
1.463441
0.481081
40000
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Lampiran 5. Hasil Uji Multikolinearitas Harga Jagung Terhadap Variabel
Independen Lain Untuk Persamaan Permintaan Jagung
Sumatera Utara.
Dependent Variable: HJG
Method: Least Squares
Date: 04/17/15 Time: 00:57
Sample: 1999Q1 2013Q4
Included observations: 60
Variable
Coefficient
Std. Error
t-Statistic
Prob.
C
JPSU
PKP
-168.0585
60.23796
0.000159
210.5682
21.47617
4.38E-05
-0.798119
2.804874
3.622278
0.4281
0.0069
0.0006
R-squared
Adjusted R-squared
S.E. of regression
Sum squared resid
Log likelihood
F-statistic
Prob(F-statistic)
0.740564
0.731461
49.12567
137559.9
-317.2604
81.35381
0.000000
Mean dependent var
S.D. dependent var
Akaike info criterion
Schwarz criterion
Hannan-Quinn criter.
Durbin-Watson stat
840.9000
94.79929
10.67535
10.78006
10.71631
0.500353
Diolah dengan eviews 8.0
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Lampiran 6. Hasil Uji Multikolinearitas Pendapatan Per Kapita Terhadap
Variabel Independen Lain Untuk Persamaan Permintaan
Jagung Sumatera Utara.
Dependent Variable: PKP
Method: Least Squares
Date: 04/17/15 Time: 01:09
Sample: 1999Q1 2013Q4
Included observations: 60
Variable
Coefficient
Std. Error
t-Statistic
Prob.
C
HJG
JPSU
-2853626.
1178.536
276677.6
435816.2
325.3576
50528.67
-6.547774
3.622278
5.475655
0.0000
0.0006
0.0000
R-squared
Adjusted R-squared
S.E. of regression
Sum squared resid
Log likelihood
F-statistic
Prob(F-statistic)
0.806526
0.799738
133842.2
1.02E+12
-791.8625
118.8067
0.000000
Mean dependent var
S.D. dependent var
Akaike info criterion
Schwarz criterion
Hannan-Quinn criter.
Durbin-Watson stat
1602791.
299084.2
26.49542
26.60014
26.53638
0.306865
Diolah dengan eviews 8.0
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Lampiran 7. Hasil Uji Multikolinearitas Jumlah Penduduk Terhadap
Variabel Independen Lain Untuk Persamaan Permintaan
Jagung Sumatera Utara.
Dependent Variable: JPSU
Method: Least Squares
Date: 04/17/15 Time: 00:57
Sample: 1999Q1 2013Q4
Included observations: 60
Variable
C
HJG
PKP
R-squared
Adjusted R-squared
S.E. of regression
Sum squared resid
Log likelihood
F-statistic
Prob(F-statistic)
Coefficient
Std. Error
t-Statistic
Prob.
8.835097
0.002013
1.25E-06
0.359303
0.000718
2.28E-07
24.58954
2.804874
5.475655
0.0000
0.0069
0.0000
0.790857
0.783518
0.284013
4.597821
-8.073453
107.7702
0.000000
Mean dependent var
S.D. dependent var
Akaike info criterion
Schwarz criterion
Hannan-Quinn criter.
Durbin-Watson stat
12.52500
0.610419
0.369115
0.473832
0.410076
0.339463
Diolah dengan eviews 8.0
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Lampiran 8. Hasil Uji Autokorelasi Persamaan Permintaan Jagung
Sumatera Utara.
Breusch-Godfrey Serial Correlation LM Test:
F-statistic
Obs*R-squared
1.825544
3.799846
Prob. F(2,54)
Prob. Chi-Square(2)
0.1709
0.1496
Test Equation:
Dependent Variable: RESID
Method: Least Squares
Date: 04/17/15 Time: 01:38
Sample: 1999Q1 2013Q4
Included observations: 60
Presample missing value lagged residuals set to zero.
Variable
Coefficient
Std. Error
t-Statistic
Prob.
C
HJG
JPSU
PKP
RESID(-1)
RESID(-2)
-8878.660
-11.80763
1555.951
-0.000443
0.207186
0.110526
68374.68
43.31618
7437.802
0.015659
0.136869
0.145690
-0.129853
-0.272592
0.209195
-0.028272
1.513755
0.758635
0.8972
0.7862
0.8351
0.9775
0.1359
0.4514
R-squared
Adjusted R-squared
S.E. of regression
Sum squared resid
Log likelihood
F-statistic
Prob(F-statistic)
0.063331
-0.023398
15820.08
1.35E+10
-662.1176
0.730218
0.603886
Mean dependent var
S.D. dependent var
Akaike info criterion
Schwarz criterion
Hannan-Quinn criter.
Durbin-Watson stat
-1.65E-10
15638.19
22.27059
22.48002
22.35251
1.952289
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Lampiran 9. Hasil Uji Heteroskedastitas Persamaan Permintaan Jagung
Sumatera Utara.
Heteroskedasticity Test: White
F-statistic
Obs*R-squared
Scaled explained SS
2.153015
16.75809
16.27908
Prob. F(9,50)
Prob. Chi-Square(9)
Prob. Chi-Square(9)
0.0418
0.0526
0.0613
Test Equation:
Dependent Variable: RESID^2
Method: Least Squares
Date: 04/17/15 Time: 01:39
Sample: 1999Q1 2013Q4
Included observations: 60
Variable
Coefficient
Std. Error
t-Statistic
Prob.
C
HJG^2
HJG*JPSU
HJG*PKP
HJG
JPSU^2
JPSU*PKP
JPSU
PKP^2
PKP
1.12E+11
1306.003
-6978651.
2.992795
78477664
1.15E+09
211.4718
-2.31E+10
-0.000949
-1823.111
9.55E+10
24756.24
3688732.
12.86004
31941471
8.87E+08
3266.941
1.83E+10
0.003317
30263.59
1.172022
0.052754
-1.891884
0.232721
2.456921
1.298540
0.064731
-1.259711
-0.286204
-0.060241
0.2467
0.9581
0.0643
0.8169
0.0175
0.2001
0.9486
0.2136
0.7759
0.9522
R-squared
Adjusted R-squared
S.E. of regression
Sum squared resid
Log likelihood
F-statistic
Prob(F-statistic)
0.279301
0.149576
3.34E+08
5.58E+18
-1257.262
2.153015
0.041815
Mean dependent var
S.D. dependent var
Akaike info criterion
Schwarz criterion
Hannan-Quinn criter.
Durbin-Watson stat
2.40E+08
3.62E+08
42.24208
42.59114
42.37861
2.528489
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Lampiran 10. Hasil Estimasi Penawaran Jagung Sumatera Utara.
Dependent Variable: QS
Method: Least Squares
Date: 04/17/15 Time: 01:55
Sample (adjusted): 1999Q2 2013Q4
Included observations: 59 after adjustments
Variable
Coefficient
Std. Error
t-Statistic
Prob.
C
HJG
HJG(-1)
LPJ
-378516.1
37.90631
536.8887
2.373997
53936.76
151.3603
145.6358
0.641045
-7.017777
0.250438
3.686517
3.703323
0.0000
0.8032
0.0005
0.0005
R-squared
Adjusted R-squared
S.E. of regression
Sum squared resid
Log likelihood
F-statistic
Prob(F-statistic)
0.713839
0.698230
43930.50
1.06E+11
-712.3778
45.73317
0.000000
Mean dependent var
S.D. dependent var
Akaike info criterion
Schwarz criterion
Hannan-Quinn criter.
Durbin-Watson stat
237305.2
79970.22
24.28399
24.42484
24.33898
1.478911
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Lampiran 11. Hasil Pengujian Normalitas Penawaran Jagung Sumatera
Utara.
9
Series: Residuals
Sample 1999Q2 2013Q4
Observations 59
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
Mean
Median
Maximum
Minimum
Std. Dev.
Skewness
Kurtosis
2.96e-11
-3469.823
142446.3
-109825.4
42779.28
0.452375
4.403592
Jarque-Bera
Probability
6.855415
0.032461
0
-80000
-40000
0
40000
80000
120000
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Lampiran 12. Hasil Multikolinearitas Harga Jagung Terhadap Variabel
Independen Lain Untuk Persamaan Penawaran Jagung
Sumatera Utara.
Dependent Variable: HJG
Method: Least Squares
Date: 04/17/15 Time: 01:58
Sample (adjusted): 2001Q3 2013Q4
Included observations: 50 after adjustments
Variable
Coefficient
Std. Error
t-Statistic
Prob.
C
HJG(-1)
LPJ
185.4269
0.593439
0.003218
111.1281
0.129897
0.000998
1.668587
4.568542
3.223533
0.1018
0.0000
0.0023
R-squared
Adjusted R-squared
S.E. of regression
Sum squared resid
Log likelihood
F-statistic
Prob(F-statistic)
0.447007
0.423475
73.84909
256323.4
-284.5012
18.99601
0.000001
Mean dependent var
S.D. dependent var
Akaike info criterion
Schwarz criterion
Hannan-Quinn criter.
Durbin-Watson stat
853.0000
97.26043
11.50005
11.61477
11.54374
0.493666
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Lampiran 13. Hasil Uji Multikolinearitas Harga Jagung Tahun Sebelumnya
Terhadap Variabel Independen Lain Untuk Persamaan
Penawaran Jagung Sumatera Utara.
Dependent Variable: HJG(-1)
Method: Least Squares
Date: 04/17/15 Time: 02:00
Sample (adjusted): 2001Q3 2013Q4
Included observations: 50 after adjustments
Variable
Coefficient
Std. Error
t-Statistic
Prob.
C
HJG
LPJ
412.6984
0.518193
-0.000685
88.30939
0.113426
0.001026
4.673324
4.568542
-0.668087
0.0000
0.0000
0.5073
R-squared
Adjusted R-squared
S.E. of regression
Sum squared resid
Log likelihood
F-statistic
Prob(F-statistic)
0.331099
0.302635
69.00852
223822.3
-281.1115
11.63224
0.000079
Mean dependent var
S.D. dependent var
Akaike info criterion
Schwarz criterion
Hannan-Quinn criter.
Durbin-Watson stat
815.6200
82.63663
11.36446
11.47918
11.40815
0.460901
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Lampiran 14. Hasil Uji Multikolinearitas Luas Panen Jagung Terhadap
Variabel Independen Lain Untuk Persamaan Penawaran
Jagung Sumatera Utara.
Dependent Variable: LPJ
Method: Least Squares
Date: 04/17/15 Time: 02:11
Sample (adjusted): 1999Q2 2013Q4
Included observations: 59 after adjustments
Variable
Coefficient
Std. Error
t-Statistic
Prob.
C
HJG
HJG(-1)
12744.49
66.51622
-14.93596
11113.79
30.27431
30.29318
1.146728
2.197118
-0.493047
0.2564
0.0322
0.6239
R-squared
Adjusted R-squared
S.E. of regression
Sum squared resid
Log likelihood
F-statistic
Prob(F-statistic)
0.236261
0.208985
9157.641
4.70E+09
-620.3962
8.661758
0.000528
Mean dependent var
S.D. dependent var
Akaike info criterion
Schwarz criterion
Hannan-Quinn criter.
Durbin-Watson stat
56313.41
10296.54
21.13207
21.23771
21.17331
1.962608
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89
Lampiran 15. Hasil Uji Autokorelasi Persamaan Penawaran Jagung
Sumatera Utara.
Breusch-Godfrey Serial Correlation LM Test:
F-statistic
Obs*R-squared
1.986711
4.114759
Prob. F(2,53)
Prob. Chi-Square(2)
0.1472
0.1278
Test Equation:
Dependent Variable: RESID
Method: Least Squares
Date: 04/17/15 Time: 02:08
Sample: 1999Q2 2013Q4
Included observations: 59
Presample missing value lagged residuals set to zero.
Variable
Coefficient
Std. Error
t-Statistic
Prob.
C
HJG
HJG(-1)
LPJ
RESID(-1)
RESID(-2)
23888.62
-67.04910
52.06706
-0.209065
0.220508
0.162025
54673.07
152.8494
145.5417
0.638960
0.146343
0.150474
0.436936
-0.438661
0.357747
-0.327196
1.506785
1.076764
0.6639
0.6627
0.7220
0.7448
0.1378
0.2865
R-squared
Adjusted R-squared
S.E. of regression
Sum squared resid
Log likelihood
F-statistic
Prob(F-statistic)
0.069742
-0.018019
43162.97
9.87E+10
-710.2452
0.794684
0.558354
Mean dependent var
S.D. dependent var
Akaike info criterion
Schwarz criterion
Hannan-Quinn criter.
Durbin-Watson stat
2.96E-11
42779.28
24.27950
24.49077
24.36197
1.926617
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90
Lampiran 16. Hasil Uji Heteroskedastistas Persamaan Penawaran Jagung
Sumatera Utara.
Heteroskedasticity Test: White
F-statistic
Obs*R-squared
Scaled explained SS
0.904961
8.409084
12.43591
Prob. F(9,49)
Prob. Chi-Square(9)
Prob. Chi-Square(9)
0.5285
0.4935
0.1898
Test Equation:
Dependent Variable: RESID^2
Method: Least Squares
Date: 04/17/15 Time: 02:09
Sample: 1999Q2 2013Q4
Included observations: 59
Variable
Coefficient
Std. Error
t-Statistic
Prob.
C
HJG^2
HJG*HJG(-1)
HJG*LPJ
HJG
HJG(-1)^2
HJG(-1)*LPJ
HJG(-1)
LPJ^2
LPJ
-3.63E+10
-124612.8
110673.2
742.8126
77564088
-19053.38
-658.0720
-11471983
-2.141467
162367.6
5.89E+10
237875.7
386763.0
1411.477
1.68E+08
218382.5
1649.620
1.50E+08
3.139247
674863.6
-0.616214
-0.523857
0.286153
0.526266
0.461340
-0.087248
-0.398923
-0.076265
-0.682159
0.240593
0.5406
0.6027
0.7760
0.6011
0.6466
0.9308
0.6917
0.9395
0.4984
0.8109
R-squared
Adjusted R-squared
S.E. of regression
Sum squared resid
Log likelihood
F-statistic
Prob(F-statistic)
0.142527
-0.014968
3.37E+09
5.57E+20
-1372.635
0.904961
0.528475
Mean dependent var
S.D. dependent var
Akaike info criterion
Schwarz criterion
Hannan-Quinn criter.
Durbin-Watson stat
1.80E+09
3.35E+09
46.86897
47.22110
47.00643
2.159199
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Lampiran 17. Perkembangan Ekspor dan Impor Jagung Indonesia
Tahun
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
Impor
ton
1,098,354
299,917
618,060
1,264,575
1,035,797
1,154,063
1,345,446
1,088,928
185,597
1,775,321
701,953
286,541
338,798
1,527,516
3,207,657
1,692,994
3,191,045
Ekspor
ton
18,957
624,942
90,647
28,066
90,474
16,306
33,691
32,679
54,009
28,074
101,740
107,001
62,575
41,954
12,717
34,899
7,932
Neraca
ton
(1,079,397)
325,025
(527,413)
(1,236,509)
(945,323)
(1,137,757)
(1,311,755)
(1,056,248)
(131,589)
(1,747,247)
(600,213)
(179,540)
(276,222)
(1,485,562)
(3,194,940)
(1,658,096)
(3,183,113)
Sumber : UN Comtrade
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