Faktor-Faktor Yang Mempengaruhi Ketersediaan Beras dan Jagung di Provinsi Sumatera Utara
LAMPIRAN
Universitas Sumatera Utara
Lampiran 1. Ketersediaan Beras di Provinsi Sumatera Utara
Harga
Harga
Domestik
Impor
Tahun
(Rp/Ton)
(Rp/Ton)
2002
2.020.667,546
3.340.000
2.964.950
2003
2.161.064,094
3.306.400
2.094.490
2004
2.199.371
3.299.000
1.552.360
2005
2.666.092,982
3.992.200
2.725.020
2006
2.432.651,447
5.060.000
2.878.550
2007
2.585.047,643
5.708.000
3.062.280
2008
2.340.626,106
6.143.400
3.579.630
2009
2.440.210,06
6.750.750
3.511.030
2010
2.633.748,272
7.310.750
4.511.730
2011
2.668.400,803
8.656.500
5.011.010
2012
2.382.686,611
9.178.750
4.578.780
2013
2.358.221,225
9.701.000
5.907.950
Sumber: Badan Ketahanan Pangan, Badan Pusat Statistik
Ketersediaan
(Ton)
Harga
Kedelai
(Rp/Ton)
3.412.754
3.838.014
3.693.055
4.397.416
5.236.117
5.172.916
6.859.375
6.810.416
7.321.981
8.177.777
8.201.041
9.650.000
Luas Panen
Jagung (Ha)
198.670
210.782
214.885
218.596
194.872
229.882
240.413
247.782
274.822
255.291
243.097
211.750
Konsumsi
(Ton/Kap/ Tahun)
1.412.171,459
1.410.201,321
1.430.556,48
1.447.151,997
1.470.311,917
1.478.262,852
1.487.737,1
1.440.099,558
1.406.362,159
1.453.188,796
1.303.170,693
1.392.599,082
Tenaga Kerja
(Jiwa)
2.888.193
4.571.093
4.276.453
4.399.699
4.074.774
3.987.998
4.203.091
4.255.602
4.468.816
3.845.341
3.834.093
3.880.703
Universitas Sumatera Utara
Lampiran 2. Ketersediaan Jagung di Provinsi Sumatera Utara
Tahun
Ketersediaan
Luas Panen (Ha)
1999
683.065
233.506
2000
666.764
221.906
2001
634.162
198.709
2002
640.614,33
198.670
2003
687.360
210.782
2004
712.558
214.885
2005
937.590,278
218.596
2006
771.636
194.872
2007
832.151
229.882
2008
1.190.449,338
240.413
2009
1.207.639,464
247.782
2010
1.786.892,977
274.822
2011
1.749.941,008
255.291
2012
1.860.226,481
243.097
2013
1.483.273,448
211.750
Sumber: Badan Ketahanan Pangan, Badan Pusat Statistik
Harga Domestik
(Rp/Ton)
1.980.873
1.882.469
1.685.660
1.663.100
1.691.500
1.833.000
2.117.000
2.087.000
2.192.000
3.172.000
3.385.000
3.913.000
4.146.000
5.108.000
6.423.000
Jumlah
Penduduk
(Jiwa)
11.955.400
11.513.973
11.722.397
11.847.076
11.890.399
12.123.360
12.326.678
12.643.494
12.834.371
13.042.317
13.248.386
12.982.204
13.103.596
13.215.401
13.326.307
Tenaga Kerja
(Jiwa)
Nilai Tukar
(Rp/US$)
2.829.078
2.800.396
2.899.214
2.888.193
4.571.093
4.276.453
4.399.699
4.074.774
3.987.998
4.203.091
4.255.602
4.468.816
3.845.341
3.834.093
3.880.703
7.100
9.725
10.265
9.260
8.570
8.985
9.705
9.200
9.125
9.666
9.447
9.036
9.113
9.718
12.250
Universitas Sumatera Utara
Lampiran 3. Hasil Analisis Regresi Faktor-Faktor Yang Mempengaruhi Ketersediaan Beras di Sumatera Utara 2002-2013
Variables Entered/Removedb
Model
1
Variables
Entered
Variables
Removed
Tenaga Kerja,
Harga Kedelai,
Konsumsi
beras, Luas
Panen Jagung,
Harga Impor,
Harga
Domestika
Method
. Enter
a. All requested variables entered.
b. Dependent Variable: Ketersediaan Beras
Model Summaryb
Change Statistics
Model
1
R
.916a
R Square
.838
Adjusted R
Square
.644
Std. Error of
the Estimate
1.24700E5
R Square
Change
.838
F Change
4.317
df1
df2
6
Sig. F Change
5
.065
DurbinWatson
1.814
Universitas Sumatera Utara
Model Summaryb
Change Statistics
Model
1
R
Adjusted R
Square
R Square
.916a
.838
Std. Error of
the Estimate
.644
R Square
Change
1.24700E5
.838
F Change
4.317
df1
df2
6
Sig. F Change
5
.065
DurbinWatson
1.814
a. Predictors: (Constant), Tenaga Kerja, Harga Kedelai, Konsumsi beras, Luas Panen Jagung, Harga Impor, Harga
Domestik
b. Dependent Variable: Ketersediaan Beras
ANOVAb
Sum of
Squares
Model
1
df
Mean Square
Regression
4.028E11
6
6.713E10
Residual
7.775E10
5
1.555E10
Total
4.806E11
11
F
4.317
Sig.
.065a
a. Predictors: (Constant), Tenaga Kerja, Harga Kedelai, Konsumsi beras, Luas Panen
Jagung, Harga Impor, Harga Domestik
b. Dependent Variable: Ketersediaan Beras
Universitas Sumatera Utara
Coefficientsa
Standardiz
ed
Unstandardize Coefficien
d Coefficients
ts
Model
1 (Constant
)
B
Std.
Error
Beta
1.375
3.033
E6
E6
Correlations
t
Collinearity
Statistics
Zero
Sig orde Parti
Toleran
.
r
al Part
ce
VIF
.07
2.20
9
6
Harga
Domestik
.297
.113
3.310
2.61 .04
.448 .760 .471
6 7
.020
49.47
6
Harga
Impor
.224
.121
1.350
1.85 .12
.392 .639 .334
6 3
.061
16.36
1
.03
-3.991 2.78
.430 -.779
9
.500
0
.016
63.69
0
Harga
Kedelai
-.406
.146
Universitas Sumatera Utara
Luas
Panen
Jagung
1.044 2.150
.121 .486
.64
.597 .212 .087
8
.519 1.929
Konsumsi
2.457
beras
.896
.581
2.74 .04
.245 .775 .494
4 1
.721 1.388
Tenaga
Kerja
.139
.821
2.79 .03
.398 .781 .503
6 8
.375 2.666
.388
a. Dependent Variable:
Ketersediaan Beras
Universitas Sumatera Utara
Collinearity Diagnosticsa
Variance Proportions
Condition
Model Dimension Eigenvalue
Index
1
(Constant)
Harga
Domestik
Harga
Impor
Harga
Kedelai
Luas Panen
Jagung
Konsumsi
beras
Tenaga
Kerja
1
6.799
1.000
.00
.00
.00
.00
.00
.00
.00
2
.179
6.159
.00
.00
.01
.00
.00
.00
.00
3
.012
24.133
.01
.02
.20
.01
.00
.01
.09
4
.005
36.832
.00
.01
.00
.02
.77
.01
.10
5
.004
43.975
.02
.19
.48
.00
.06
.02
.23
6
.001
78.358
.02
.43
.23
.62
.14
.08
.44
7
.000
140.767
.94
.35
.08
.34
.03
.88
.13
a. Dependent Variable: Ketersediaan Beras
Universitas Sumatera Utara
Universitas Sumatera Utara
Universitas Sumatera Utara
Lampiran 4. Hasil Analisis Regresi Faktor-Faktor Yang Mempengaruhi Ketersediaan Jagung di Sumatera Utara 1999-2013
Variables Entered/Removedb
Model
1
Variables
Entered
Variables
Removed
Tenaga Kerja,
Nilai Tukar,
Luas Panen,
Jumlah
Penduduk,
Harga
Domestika
Method
. Enter
a. All requested variables entered.
b. Dependent Variable: Ketersediaan Jagung
Universitas Sumatera Utara
Model Summaryb
Change Statistics
Model
1
R
Adjusted R
Square
R Square
.955a
.912
Std. Error of
the Estimate
.864
R Square
Change
1.68875E5
.912
F Change
18.721
df1
df2
5
Sig. F Change
9
.000
DurbinWatson
1.499
a. Predictors: (Constant), Tenaga Kerja, Nilai Tukar, Luas Panen, Jumlah Penduduk, Harga
Domestik
b. Dependent Variable: Ketersediaan Jagung
ANOVAb
Sum of
Squares
Model
1
df
Mean Square
Regression
2.669E12
5
5.339E11
Residual
2.567E11
9
2.852E10
Total
2.926E12
14
F
18.721
Sig.
.000a
a. Predictors: (Constant), Tenaga Kerja, Nilai Tukar, Luas Panen, Jumlah Penduduk,
Harga Domestik
b. Dependent Variable: Ketersediaan Jagung
Universitas Sumatera Utara
Coefficientsa
Unstandardized
Coefficients
Model
1
B
(Constant)
Standardized
Coefficients
Std. Error
-1.706E6
1.941E6
8.115
3.111
Jumlah
Penduduk
.012
Harga Domestik
Luas Panen
Nilai Tukar
Tenaga Kerja
Beta
Collinearity
Statistics
Correlations
t
Sig.
Zero-order Partial
Part
Tolerance
VIF
-.879
.402
.407
2.609
.028
.741
.656
.258
.400
2.503
.164
.016
.072
.944
.822
.024
.007
.188
5.309
.207
.075
.655
2.750
.022
.868
.676
.272
.172
5.826
-3.821
70.950
-.009
-.054
.958
.296
-.018
-.005
.360
2.779
.057
.094
.079
.607
.559
.386
.198
.060
.569
1.757
a. Dependent Variable: Ketersediaan Jagung
Universitas Sumatera Utara
Collinearity Diagnosticsa
Variance Proportions
Model Dimension Eigenvalue
1
Condition
Index
(Constant)
Luas Panen
Jumlah
Penduduk
Harga
Domestik
Nilai Tukar Tenaga Kerja
1
5.827
1.000
.00
.00
.00
.00
.00
.00
2
.141
6.420
.00
.00
.00
.19
.00
.00
3
.019
17.540
.00
.00
.00
.00
.06
.50
4
.012
22.431
.00
.17
.00
.00
.12
.16
5
.001
66.132
.08
.83
.09
.15
.71
.02
6
.000
150.984
.92
.00
.91
.65
.11
.31
a. Dependent Variable: Ketersediaan Jagung
Universitas Sumatera Utara
Universitas Sumatera Utara
Universitas Sumatera Utara
Universitas Sumatera Utara
Lampiran 1. Ketersediaan Beras di Provinsi Sumatera Utara
Harga
Harga
Domestik
Impor
Tahun
(Rp/Ton)
(Rp/Ton)
2002
2.020.667,546
3.340.000
2.964.950
2003
2.161.064,094
3.306.400
2.094.490
2004
2.199.371
3.299.000
1.552.360
2005
2.666.092,982
3.992.200
2.725.020
2006
2.432.651,447
5.060.000
2.878.550
2007
2.585.047,643
5.708.000
3.062.280
2008
2.340.626,106
6.143.400
3.579.630
2009
2.440.210,06
6.750.750
3.511.030
2010
2.633.748,272
7.310.750
4.511.730
2011
2.668.400,803
8.656.500
5.011.010
2012
2.382.686,611
9.178.750
4.578.780
2013
2.358.221,225
9.701.000
5.907.950
Sumber: Badan Ketahanan Pangan, Badan Pusat Statistik
Ketersediaan
(Ton)
Harga
Kedelai
(Rp/Ton)
3.412.754
3.838.014
3.693.055
4.397.416
5.236.117
5.172.916
6.859.375
6.810.416
7.321.981
8.177.777
8.201.041
9.650.000
Luas Panen
Jagung (Ha)
198.670
210.782
214.885
218.596
194.872
229.882
240.413
247.782
274.822
255.291
243.097
211.750
Konsumsi
(Ton/Kap/ Tahun)
1.412.171,459
1.410.201,321
1.430.556,48
1.447.151,997
1.470.311,917
1.478.262,852
1.487.737,1
1.440.099,558
1.406.362,159
1.453.188,796
1.303.170,693
1.392.599,082
Tenaga Kerja
(Jiwa)
2.888.193
4.571.093
4.276.453
4.399.699
4.074.774
3.987.998
4.203.091
4.255.602
4.468.816
3.845.341
3.834.093
3.880.703
Universitas Sumatera Utara
Lampiran 2. Ketersediaan Jagung di Provinsi Sumatera Utara
Tahun
Ketersediaan
Luas Panen (Ha)
1999
683.065
233.506
2000
666.764
221.906
2001
634.162
198.709
2002
640.614,33
198.670
2003
687.360
210.782
2004
712.558
214.885
2005
937.590,278
218.596
2006
771.636
194.872
2007
832.151
229.882
2008
1.190.449,338
240.413
2009
1.207.639,464
247.782
2010
1.786.892,977
274.822
2011
1.749.941,008
255.291
2012
1.860.226,481
243.097
2013
1.483.273,448
211.750
Sumber: Badan Ketahanan Pangan, Badan Pusat Statistik
Harga Domestik
(Rp/Ton)
1.980.873
1.882.469
1.685.660
1.663.100
1.691.500
1.833.000
2.117.000
2.087.000
2.192.000
3.172.000
3.385.000
3.913.000
4.146.000
5.108.000
6.423.000
Jumlah
Penduduk
(Jiwa)
11.955.400
11.513.973
11.722.397
11.847.076
11.890.399
12.123.360
12.326.678
12.643.494
12.834.371
13.042.317
13.248.386
12.982.204
13.103.596
13.215.401
13.326.307
Tenaga Kerja
(Jiwa)
Nilai Tukar
(Rp/US$)
2.829.078
2.800.396
2.899.214
2.888.193
4.571.093
4.276.453
4.399.699
4.074.774
3.987.998
4.203.091
4.255.602
4.468.816
3.845.341
3.834.093
3.880.703
7.100
9.725
10.265
9.260
8.570
8.985
9.705
9.200
9.125
9.666
9.447
9.036
9.113
9.718
12.250
Universitas Sumatera Utara
Lampiran 3. Hasil Analisis Regresi Faktor-Faktor Yang Mempengaruhi Ketersediaan Beras di Sumatera Utara 2002-2013
Variables Entered/Removedb
Model
1
Variables
Entered
Variables
Removed
Tenaga Kerja,
Harga Kedelai,
Konsumsi
beras, Luas
Panen Jagung,
Harga Impor,
Harga
Domestika
Method
. Enter
a. All requested variables entered.
b. Dependent Variable: Ketersediaan Beras
Model Summaryb
Change Statistics
Model
1
R
.916a
R Square
.838
Adjusted R
Square
.644
Std. Error of
the Estimate
1.24700E5
R Square
Change
.838
F Change
4.317
df1
df2
6
Sig. F Change
5
.065
DurbinWatson
1.814
Universitas Sumatera Utara
Model Summaryb
Change Statistics
Model
1
R
Adjusted R
Square
R Square
.916a
.838
Std. Error of
the Estimate
.644
R Square
Change
1.24700E5
.838
F Change
4.317
df1
df2
6
Sig. F Change
5
.065
DurbinWatson
1.814
a. Predictors: (Constant), Tenaga Kerja, Harga Kedelai, Konsumsi beras, Luas Panen Jagung, Harga Impor, Harga
Domestik
b. Dependent Variable: Ketersediaan Beras
ANOVAb
Sum of
Squares
Model
1
df
Mean Square
Regression
4.028E11
6
6.713E10
Residual
7.775E10
5
1.555E10
Total
4.806E11
11
F
4.317
Sig.
.065a
a. Predictors: (Constant), Tenaga Kerja, Harga Kedelai, Konsumsi beras, Luas Panen
Jagung, Harga Impor, Harga Domestik
b. Dependent Variable: Ketersediaan Beras
Universitas Sumatera Utara
Coefficientsa
Standardiz
ed
Unstandardize Coefficien
d Coefficients
ts
Model
1 (Constant
)
B
Std.
Error
Beta
1.375
3.033
E6
E6
Correlations
t
Collinearity
Statistics
Zero
Sig orde Parti
Toleran
.
r
al Part
ce
VIF
.07
2.20
9
6
Harga
Domestik
.297
.113
3.310
2.61 .04
.448 .760 .471
6 7
.020
49.47
6
Harga
Impor
.224
.121
1.350
1.85 .12
.392 .639 .334
6 3
.061
16.36
1
.03
-3.991 2.78
.430 -.779
9
.500
0
.016
63.69
0
Harga
Kedelai
-.406
.146
Universitas Sumatera Utara
Luas
Panen
Jagung
1.044 2.150
.121 .486
.64
.597 .212 .087
8
.519 1.929
Konsumsi
2.457
beras
.896
.581
2.74 .04
.245 .775 .494
4 1
.721 1.388
Tenaga
Kerja
.139
.821
2.79 .03
.398 .781 .503
6 8
.375 2.666
.388
a. Dependent Variable:
Ketersediaan Beras
Universitas Sumatera Utara
Collinearity Diagnosticsa
Variance Proportions
Condition
Model Dimension Eigenvalue
Index
1
(Constant)
Harga
Domestik
Harga
Impor
Harga
Kedelai
Luas Panen
Jagung
Konsumsi
beras
Tenaga
Kerja
1
6.799
1.000
.00
.00
.00
.00
.00
.00
.00
2
.179
6.159
.00
.00
.01
.00
.00
.00
.00
3
.012
24.133
.01
.02
.20
.01
.00
.01
.09
4
.005
36.832
.00
.01
.00
.02
.77
.01
.10
5
.004
43.975
.02
.19
.48
.00
.06
.02
.23
6
.001
78.358
.02
.43
.23
.62
.14
.08
.44
7
.000
140.767
.94
.35
.08
.34
.03
.88
.13
a. Dependent Variable: Ketersediaan Beras
Universitas Sumatera Utara
Universitas Sumatera Utara
Universitas Sumatera Utara
Lampiran 4. Hasil Analisis Regresi Faktor-Faktor Yang Mempengaruhi Ketersediaan Jagung di Sumatera Utara 1999-2013
Variables Entered/Removedb
Model
1
Variables
Entered
Variables
Removed
Tenaga Kerja,
Nilai Tukar,
Luas Panen,
Jumlah
Penduduk,
Harga
Domestika
Method
. Enter
a. All requested variables entered.
b. Dependent Variable: Ketersediaan Jagung
Universitas Sumatera Utara
Model Summaryb
Change Statistics
Model
1
R
Adjusted R
Square
R Square
.955a
.912
Std. Error of
the Estimate
.864
R Square
Change
1.68875E5
.912
F Change
18.721
df1
df2
5
Sig. F Change
9
.000
DurbinWatson
1.499
a. Predictors: (Constant), Tenaga Kerja, Nilai Tukar, Luas Panen, Jumlah Penduduk, Harga
Domestik
b. Dependent Variable: Ketersediaan Jagung
ANOVAb
Sum of
Squares
Model
1
df
Mean Square
Regression
2.669E12
5
5.339E11
Residual
2.567E11
9
2.852E10
Total
2.926E12
14
F
18.721
Sig.
.000a
a. Predictors: (Constant), Tenaga Kerja, Nilai Tukar, Luas Panen, Jumlah Penduduk,
Harga Domestik
b. Dependent Variable: Ketersediaan Jagung
Universitas Sumatera Utara
Coefficientsa
Unstandardized
Coefficients
Model
1
B
(Constant)
Standardized
Coefficients
Std. Error
-1.706E6
1.941E6
8.115
3.111
Jumlah
Penduduk
.012
Harga Domestik
Luas Panen
Nilai Tukar
Tenaga Kerja
Beta
Collinearity
Statistics
Correlations
t
Sig.
Zero-order Partial
Part
Tolerance
VIF
-.879
.402
.407
2.609
.028
.741
.656
.258
.400
2.503
.164
.016
.072
.944
.822
.024
.007
.188
5.309
.207
.075
.655
2.750
.022
.868
.676
.272
.172
5.826
-3.821
70.950
-.009
-.054
.958
.296
-.018
-.005
.360
2.779
.057
.094
.079
.607
.559
.386
.198
.060
.569
1.757
a. Dependent Variable: Ketersediaan Jagung
Universitas Sumatera Utara
Collinearity Diagnosticsa
Variance Proportions
Model Dimension Eigenvalue
1
Condition
Index
(Constant)
Luas Panen
Jumlah
Penduduk
Harga
Domestik
Nilai Tukar Tenaga Kerja
1
5.827
1.000
.00
.00
.00
.00
.00
.00
2
.141
6.420
.00
.00
.00
.19
.00
.00
3
.019
17.540
.00
.00
.00
.00
.06
.50
4
.012
22.431
.00
.17
.00
.00
.12
.16
5
.001
66.132
.08
.83
.09
.15
.71
.02
6
.000
150.984
.92
.00
.91
.65
.11
.31
a. Dependent Variable: Ketersediaan Jagung
Universitas Sumatera Utara
Universitas Sumatera Utara
Universitas Sumatera Utara