A. Ketersediaan Beras Tahun Ketersediaan Beras (Kg) - Faktor-Faktor yang Mempengaruhi Ketersediaan dan Konsumsi Pangan Strategis di Sumatera Utara

  A. Ketersediaan Beras Tahun Ketersediaan Beras (Kg) Luas Panen Padi (Ha) Harga Beras (Rp/kg) Jumlah penduduk (Juta jiwa) Konsumsi beras (Kg/kap/tahun) Y

X3 X4 2001

  580.464.000 128.173.000 8.246 11.300 132,1 2002

  Lampiran 2 Konsumsi Pangan strategis (beras dan cabai) Penduduk Sumatera Utara Tahun 2001-2010

  1.328.864.000 52.320.000 39.802 20.927 108,33 (Sumber : BKP dan BPSProvinsi Sumatera Utara).

  

1.378.727.000 97.885.000 18.758 17.831 108,7

2010

  1.153.060.000 95.034.000 29.371 19.411 114,07 2009

  

1.128.792.000 112.843.000 12.230 14.931 114,5

2008

  

1.185.057.000 84.293.000 23.250 14.214 115,9

2007

  1.058.023.000 93.170.000 15.750 13.095 117,40 2006

  

1.100.514.000 126.711.000 11.290 12.357 116,4

2005

  

1.066.722.000 135.778.000 10.185 12.685 117,8

2004

  635.089.000 65.849.000 6.283 12.142 119,2 2003

  X1 X2

  X1 X2

  B. Ketersediaan Cabai Tahun Ketersediaan Cabai (Kg) Produksi Cabai (Kg) Harga Cabai (Rp/kg) Harga ikan (Rp/kg) Konsumsi beras (kg/kap/tahun) - Y

  2.063.335.000 754.674 7.830 12.982.204 108,33

  

2.016.709.000 768.407 6.194 13.248.386 108,7

2010

  2.383.030.000 748.540 6.028 13.042.317 114,07 2009

  

2.296.073.000 750.232 5.474 12.834.371 114,5

2008

  

2.156.550.000 705.023 4.807 12.643.494 115,9

2007

  2.301.265.000 822.073 3.701 12.326.678 117,40 2006

  

2.160.669.000 826.091 3.052 12.160.536 116,4

2005

  

2.150.743.000 825.188 2.894 11.991.182 117,8

2004

  

1.992.889.000 765.161 2.913 11.783.503 119,2

2003

  

1.832.426.000 801.948 2.523 11.647.958 132,1

2002

X3 X4 2001

  A. Konsumsi Beras Tahun Konsumsi Beras (Kg/kap/tahun) Jumlah penduduk (Juta Jiwa) Harga beras (Rp/kg) Produksi beras (Kg) Pendapatan/ kap (Rp) Y

X3 X4 2001

B. Konsumsi Cabai

  4,7 6.123.457 8.246 128.173.000 2002

  Lampiran 3. Hasil Regresi Linear Berganda Menggunakan SPSS dengan Variabel Bebas, luas panen padi, harga beras, jumlah penduduk dan konsumsi beras di Sumatera Utara Tahun 2001-2010

  4,43 8.516.999 39.802 52.320.000 (Sumber : BKP dan BPS Sumatera Utara).

  4,41 8.005.165 18.758 97.885.000 2010

  6,2 7.950.282 29.371 95.034.000 2009

  5,7 7.422.254. 12.230 112.843.000 2008

  5,2 7.070.876 23.250 84.293.000 2007

  6,5 6.885.535 15.750 93.170.000 2006

  6,1 6.648.423 11.290 126.711.000 2005

  5,6 6.300.265 10.185 135.778.000 2004

  5,2 6.227.408 6.283 65.849.000 2003

  

X1

X2

  X1 X2

  Harga Cabai (Rp/kg) Produksi Cabai (Kg) Y

  Tahun Konsumsi Cabai (Kg/kap/tahun)

Pendapatan/kap

(Rp)

  108,33 12.982.204 7.830 3.582.302.000 8.516.999

  108,7 13.248.386 6.194 3.527.899.000 8.005.165 2010

  114,07 13.042.317 6.028 3.340.796.000 7.950.282 2009

  114,5 12.834.371 5.474 3.256.833.000 7.422.254 2008

  115,9 12.643.494 4.807 3.007.636.000 7.070.876 2007

  117,40 12.326.678 3.701 3.447.393.000 6.885.535 2006

  116,4 12.160.536 3.052 3..418.782.000 6.648.423 2005

  117,8 11.991.182 2.894 3.403.075.000 6.300.265 2004

  119,2 11.783.503 2.913 3.153.305.000 6.227.408 2003

  132,1 11.647.958 2.523 3.291.515.000 6.123.457 2002

X3 2001

  Correlations

  ketersediaan luas panen jumlah konsumsi beras padi harga beras penduduk beras Pearson ketersediaan beras 1.000 .504 .369 .320 .393 Correlation luas panen padi .504 1.000 .603 .554 .363 harga beras .369 .603 1.000 .918 .778 jumlah penduduk .320 .554 .918 1.000 .831 konsumsi beras .393 .363 .778 .831 1.000

  Sig. (1-tailed) ketersediaan beras . .069 .147 .184 .130 luas panen padi .069 . .033 .048 .152 harga beras .147 .033 . .000 .004 jumlah penduduk .184 .048 .000 . .001 konsumsi beras .130 .152 .004 .001 . N ketersediaan beras

  10

  10

  10

  10

  10 luas panen padi

  10

  10

  10

  10

  10 harga beras

  10

  10

  10

  10

  10 jumlah penduduk

  10

  10

  10

  10

  10 konsumsi beras

  10

  10

  10

  10

  10

  b

Model Summary

  Model R Change Statistics Durbin-Watson

  R Adjusted R Std. Error of Square Square the Estimate R Square F Change Change df1 df2 Sig. F Change

  a

  1 .983 .966 .939 4.296E7 .966 35.355

  4 5 .001 1.743

  a. Predictors: (Constant), konsumsi beras, luas panen padi , harga beras, jumlah penduduk b. Dependent Variable: ketersediaan beras

  b ANOVA Model Sum of Squares Df Mean Square F Sig. a

  1 Regression 2.610E17 4 6.525E16 35.355 .001 Residual 9.228E15 5 1.846E15 Total 2.702E17

  9

  a. Predictors: (Constant), konsumsi beras, luas panen padi , harga beras, jumlah penduduk

  b. Dependent Variable: ketersediaan beras

  a

Coefficients Standardi zed Unstandardized Coefficien Collinearity

  Coefficients ts Correlations Statistics Zero-

  Model B Std. Error Beta T Sig. order Partial Part Tolerance

  VIF 1 (Constant) 5.549E8 1.283E9 2.433 .002 luas panen

  4876.733 456.028 1.141 10.694 .000 .504 .979 .884 .599 1.668 padi harga

  111971.380 21159.089 1.161 5.292 .003 .369 .921 .437 .142 7.049 beras jumlah

  33.416 73.085 .109 3.457 .007 .320 .200 .038 .121 8.252 penduduk konsumsi

  155231.484 3.970E6 .006 2.039 .005 -.393 .017 .003 .290 3.449 beras a. Dependent Variable: ketersediaan beras

Lampiran 4. Hasil Regresi Linear Berganda Menggunakan SPSS dengan Variabel Bebas, produksi cabai, harga cabai, harga ikan dan konsumsi beras di Sumatera Utara Tahun 2001-2010

  

Correlations

  Ketersediaan Produksi harga harga cabai cabai cabai ikan konsumsi beras Pearson Ketersediaan cabai 1.000 .198 .674 .822 .894 Correlation

  Produksi cabai .198 1.000 .606 .549 .471 harga cabai .674 .606 1.000 .716 .624 harga ikan .822 .549 .716 1.000 .955 konsumsi beras .894 .471 .624 .955 1.000

  Sig. (1-tailed) Ketersediaan cabai . .000 .000 .000 .000 Produksi cabai .000 . .000 .000 .000 harga cabai .000 .000 . .000 .000 harga ikan .000 .000 .000 . .000 konsumsi beras .000 .000 .000 .000 .

  N Ketersediaan cabai

  10

  10

  10

  10

  10 Produksi cabai

  10

  10

  10

  10

  10 harga cabai

  10

  10

  10

  10

  10 harga ikan

  10

  10

  10

  10

  10 konsumsi beras

  10

  10

  10

  10

  10

  b

Model Summary

  Change Statistics R Adjusted R Std. Error of the R Square Sig. F Durbin-

  Model R Square Square Estimate Change F Change df1 df2 Change Watson

  a

  1 .986 .973 .951 5.808E7 .973 44.328

  4 5 .000 2.110

  a. Predictors: (Constant), konsumsi beras, Produksi cabai, harga cabai, harga ikan b. Dependent Variable: Ketersediaan cabai

  b ANOVA Model Sum of Squares Df Mean Square F Sig. a

  1 Regression 5.982E17 4 1.496E17 44.328 .000 Residual 1.687E16 5 3.374E15 Total 6.151E17

  9

  a. Predictors: (Constant), konsumsi beras, Produksi cabai, harga cabai, harga ikan

  b. Dependent Variable: Ketersediaan cabai

  a

Coefficients

  Unstandardized Standardized Collinearity Coefficients Coefficients Correlations Statistics

  Zero- Model B Std. Error Beta T Sig. order Partial Part Tolerance

  VIF 1 (Constant) 6.863E9 1.366E9 5.023 .004 Produksi

  4.034 .918 .421 4.394 .007 .198 .891 .325 .597 1.676 cabai harga cabai 12913.956 2897.080 .523 4.458 .007 .674 .894 .330 .399 2.506 harga ikan -27234.187 13516.264 -.598 -2.015 .003 .822 -.669 -.149 .162 6.065 konsumsi

• 5.218E7 1.024E7 -1.337 -5.097 .004 .894 -.916 -.378 .180 2.549 beras

  a. Dependent Variable: Ketersediaan cabai

Lampiran 5. Hasil Regresi Linear Berganda Menggunakan SPSS dengan Variabel Bebas, jumlah penduduk, harga beras, produksi beras dan pendapatan . di Sumatera Utara Tahun 2001-2010

  

Correlations

  Konsumsi jumlah beras penduduk harga beras produksi beras Pendapatan Pearson Konsumsi beras 1.000 .831 .778 .393 .799 Correlation jumlah penduduk .831 1.000 .918 .320 .944 harga beras .778 .918 1.000 .369 .984 produksi beras .393 .320 .369 1.000 .460 Pendapatan .799 .944 .984 .460 1.000

  Sig. (1-tailed) Konsumsi beras . .001 .004 .030 .003 jumlah penduduk .001 . .000 .084 .000 harga beras .004 .000 . .047 .000 produksi beras .030 .084 .047 . .091 Pendapatan .003 .000 .000 .091 . N Konsumsi beras

  10

  10

  10

  10

  10 jumlah penduduk

  10

  10

  10

  10

  10 harga beras

  10

  10

  10

  10

  10 produksi beras

  10

  10

  10

  10

  10

  

Correlations

  Konsumsi jumlah beras penduduk harga beras produksi beras Pendapatan Pearson Konsumsi beras 1.000 .831 .778 .393 .799 Correlation jumlah penduduk .831 1.000 .918 .320 .944 harga beras .778 .918 1.000 .369 .984 produksi beras .393 .320 .369 1.000 .460 Pendapatan .799 .944 .984 .460 1.000

  Sig. (1-tailed) Konsumsi beras . .001 .004 .030 .003 jumlah penduduk .001 . .000 .084 .000 harga beras .004 .000 . .047 .000 produksi beras .030 .084 .047 . .091 Pendapatan .003 .000 .000 .091 . N Konsumsi beras

  10

  10

  10

  10

  10 jumlah penduduk

  10

  10

  10

  10

  10 harga beras

  10

  10

  10

  10

  10 produksi beras

  10

  10

  10

  10

  10 Pendapatan

  10

  10

  10

  10

  10

  b

Model Summary

  Change Statistics R Adjusted Std. Error of the R Square Sig. F Durbin-

  Model R Square R Square Estimate Change F Change df1 df2 Change Watson

  a

  1 .850 .723 .501 4.732 .723 3.261

  4 5 .013 1.735

  a. Predictors: (Constant),pendapatan, produksi beras,jumlah penduduk,harga beras b. Dependet Variabel : Konsumsi beras

  b ANOVA Model Sum of Squares Df Mean Square F Sig. a

  1 Regression 292.063 4 73.016 3.261 .013 Residual 111.937 5 22.387 Total 404.000

  9

  a. Predictors: (Constant), pendapatan, produksi beras, jumlah penduduk, harga beras

  b. Dependent Variable: Konsumsi beras

  a

Coefficients

  Unstandardized Standardized Collinearity Coefficients Coefficients Correlations Statistics

  Std. Zero- Model B Error Beta t Sig. order Partial Part Tolerance

  VIF 1 (Constant) 259.009 89.545 2.892 .004 jumlah

  5.304 .204 1.096 2.224 .005 .831 .480 .288 .169 4.451 penduduk harga beras 2.003 .412 .909 3.492 .003 .778 .215 .116 .216 5.519 produksi beras 4.112 .394 .288 2.740 .007 .393 .314 .174 .367 2.728 pendapatan 6.014 .279 1.262 4.503 .002 .799 .220 .119 .209 3.371

  a. Dependent Variable: Konsumsi beras

Lampiran 6. Hasil Regresi Linear Berganda Menggunakan SPSS dengan Variabel Bebas, pendapatan, harga cabai, dan produksi cabai di Sumatera Utara Tahun 2001-2010

  

Correlations

  Pendapatan/kapi Konsumsi cabai ta Harga cabai Produksi cabai

  Pearson Konsumsi cabai 1.000 .190 .134 .182 Correlation

  Pendapatan/kapita .190 1.000 .867 .517 Harga cabai .134 .867 1.000 .606 Produksi cabai .182 .517 .606 1.000

  Sig. (1-tailed) Konsumsi cabai . .030 .056 .007 Pendapatan/kapita .030 . .001 .063 Harga cabai .056 .001 . .032 Produksi cabai .007 .063 .032 .

  N Konsumsi cabai

  10

  10

  10

  10 Pendapatan/kapita

  10

  10

  10

  10 Harga cabai

  10

  10

  10

  10 Produksi cabai

  10

  10

  10

  10

  b

Model Summary

  Change Statistics R Adjusted R Std. Error of the R Square Sig. F Durbin-

  Model R Square Square Estimate Change F Change df1 df2 Change Watson

  a

  1 .838 .857 .815 7.971 .857 8.120

  3 6 .045 2.618

  a. Predictors: (Constant), Produksi cabai, Pendapatan/kapita, Harga cabai

  b. Dependent Variable: Konsumsi cabai

  b ANOVA Model Sum of Squares Df Mean Square F Sig. a

  1 Regression .340 3 .113 8.120 .045 Residual 5.660 6 .943 Total 6.000

  9

  a. Predictors: (Constant), Produksi cabai, Pendapatan/kapita, Harga cabai

  b. Dependent Variable: Konsumsi cabai

  a

Coefficients

  Unstandardized Standardized Collinearity Coefficients Coefficients Correlations Statistics

  Zero- Model B Std. Error Beta T Sig. order Partial Part Tolerance

  VIF 1 (Constant) 6.310 4.982 2.367 .002 Pendapatan/kapita 2.957 .413 .302 2.380 .001 .190 .153 .151 .248 4.025 Harga cabai 2.755 .270 .227 3.266 .009 .134 .108 .105 .214 4.664 Produksi cabai 4.903 .221 .164 2.329 .004 .182 .133 .130 .632 1.582

  a. Dependent Variable: Konsumsi cabai