Bagian 6-Pengambilan Keputusan Manajerial

MATERI 6
PERILAKU ORGANISASI

MANAGERIAL DECISION
MAKING

2 JENIS PENGAMBILAN
KEPUTUSAN MANAJERIAL
• INDIVIDUAL DECISION MAKING
Pengambilan Keputusan Manajerial
yang dilakukan oleh Seorang Manajer.
• GROUP DECISION MAKING
Pengambilan Keputusan Manajerial
yang dilakukan oleh suatu kelompok
atau level manajemen.

JENIS MASALAH
KEPUTUSAN
• Masalah Keputusan Terstruktur
(Structured Problem)
- Algoritma Pemecahan Sudah Jelas

• Masalah Keputusan Tidak Terstruktur
(Unstructured Problem)
- Algoritma Pemecahan Tidak Jelas.

LEVEL MANAJEMEN &
MASALAH KEPUTUSAN
• TOP : Mostly Unstructured Problem
• MIDDLE : Balance
• LOWER : Mostly Structured Problem

KARAKTERISTIK
KEPUTUSAN EFFEKTIF
1. Quality of the Decision
2. Acceptance of the Decision
3. Ethical Justness of the Decision

PROSES PENGAMBILAN
KEPUTUSAN (BAZERMAN)
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Define The Problem
Criteria Identification
Criteria Weighting
Alternative Generation
Rating each Alternative
Computing the Optimal Decision

PROSES PENGAMBILAN
KEPUTUSAN (H.SIMON)
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Intelligent

Design
Choice
Implementation

RATIONAL DECISION
MAKING
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Perfectly Defining the Problem
Identifying All Criteria
Accurately Weighting All Criteria
Knowing All Relevant Alternatives
Accurately Assessing each Alternatives
on each Criteria
• Accurately Choosing The Highest

BOUNDED RATIONALITY
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Lack of Information
Time and Cost Constraints
Perception Biases
Limitation of Usable Memory
Intelligent Constraints in Calculating

JUDGMENT DALAM
KEPUTUSAN MANAJERIAL
• THE AVAILABILITY HEURISTICS
Ketersediaan Informasi dalam memori
• THE REPRESENTATIVENESS
HEURISTICS
Kesamaan Masalah

• ANCHORING & ADJUSTMENT
HEURISTICS

BIAS PENGGUNAAN
AVAILABILY HEURISTICS
1. Informasi yang mudah diingat
kembali
2. Informasi yang mudah dicari
3. Korelasi Maya (Illusory
Correlation)

BIAS PENGGUNAAN
REPRESENTATIVENESS H.
• Tidak sensitif terhadap kemungkinan
suatu hasil (outcomes)
• Tidak sensitif terhadap ukuran sample
• Miskonsepsi tentang “Chance”
• Regresi ke Arah Rata-rata

BIAS PENGGUNAAN

ANCHORING& ADJUSTMENT
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Adjustment yang tidak memadai
Overconfidence
Hubungan yang keliru
Konfirmasi yang Menjebak

STRATEGIES FOR MANAGER
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Warning about the possibility of bias
Describing the direction of the bias
Providing a dose of feedback

Offering extended program of training
to improve judgment.

ESKALASI NON RASIONAL
• Eskalasi : Bertahan, “ngotot”
• Ada 2 Macam :
1. The Unilateral Escalation Paradigm
Bertahan pada satu keputusan yang keliru,
karena masih yakin benar
2. The Competitive Escalation Paradigm
Bertahan pada satu keputusan yang keliru
karena tidak mau kalah.

SEBAB-SEBAB ESKALASI
NON RASIONAL
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Perceptual Biases
Judgmental Biases
External Management : “Safe Face”
Competitive Irrationality

STRATEGIES FOR MANAGER
• Set limit on your involvement and
commitment in advance.
• Avoid looking to other people to see
what you should do.
• Actively determine why you are
continuing.
• Remind your self of the cost involved

PERTIMBANGAN
GROUP DECISION MAKING
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Type of Problem or task
Acceptance of Decision
Characteristics of Individuals
Climate of the Decision Making
Amount of time available

BENTUK GROUP DECISION
MAKING
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BRAINSTORMING / SYNECTICS
NOMINAL GROUP TECHNIQUE
DELPHI TECHNIQUE
CONSENSUS MAPPING

KEUNGGULAN GROUP
DECISION MAKING
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Multiple Knowledge & Skills
Expedites Acceptance
Generally Higher Quality Decision
Increase Commitment

KELEMAHAN GROUP
DECISION MAKING
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More Time
Ignore Individual Expertise
Satisfices
Encourages Riskier Decision
Create Groupthink

SYMPTOMS OF
GROUPTHINK
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Stereotypes
Pressure
Self-Censorship
Mindguards