Bukit Asam (PTBA IJ)
Bukit Asam
BUY
Results Note
(Unchanged)
Growing against challenges
Stock Data
Target price (Rp)
Rp5,100
Prior TP (Rp)
Rp3,900
Shareprice (Rp)
Rp4,260
Upside/downside (%)
Good 2Q18 results despite pressure from DMO pricing.
Benefit by abundant coal reserves and low production costs.
High production growth despite scarcity of heavy equipment.
+19.7
Sharesoutstanding (m)
10,540
Marketcap. (US$ m)
Maintain Buy with higher TP of Rp5,100 (prev: Rp3,900).
3,098
Free float (%)
28.7
Avg. 6m dailyT/O (US$ m)
Better than expected 2Q18 results as export sales contribution increased.
PTBA reported better than expected 2Q18 results with 1H18 net profit represent
53% and 67% of consensus’ and our forecast for FY18F, respectively. Earnings
dropped 23% qoq but up 32% yoy in 2Q18, mainly caused by DMO pricing
regulation (released on March 2018). However, PTBA managed to control
production costs, allowing the company to enjoy higher gross margin of 42% and
operating margin of 33.5% in 1H18. Cash cost (including opex and royalties)
dropped 10% yoy to Rp614k per ton in 1H18. We also note that despite pressure
from DMO pricing, coal ASP increased 8.7% yoy to Rp838k/ton in 1H18 on the
back of higher export contribution of 48% (vs. 36% in 1H17).
8.2
Price Performance
3M
6M
12M
Absolute (%)
27.2
28.3
64.2
Relative to JCI (%)
34.1
39.8
63.3
52w high/low (Rp)
4,400 - 1,845
180
160
140
120
100
PTBA-Rebase
JCI Index-Rebase
Jul-18
Jun-18
May-18
Apr-18
May-18
Mar-18
Mar-18
Jan-18
Feb-18
Jan-18
Dec-17
Nov-17
Oct-17
Sep-17
Aug-17
Jul-17
60
Nov-17
80
Aug-17
Equity | Indonesia | Commodities
23 July 2018
(PTBA IJ)
PTBA is benefited by abundant coal reserves and low production costs.
PTBA holds the largest coal reserves and the longest mine-life within our coverage
of four coal companies. PTBA had the option to change its sales mix and increase
export sales in 1H18 as the company holds abundant coal reserves with calorific
value ranging from 4,500-7,000 kcal/kg (adb). Additionally, PTBA enjoyed low
production costs supported by low stripping ratio of 4x-4.5x (1H18: 4.3x) and
efficient train transportation costs. With these low and efficient costs, PTBA’s
margin is the highest among its peers.
Major Shareholders
Inalum (Persero)
65.0%
Estimate Change; Vs. Consensus
2018F
Latest EPS (Rp)
Vs. Prior EPS (%)
2019F
466
496
28.3
18.8
5.4
6.8
Vs. Consensus (%)
Source: Bloomberg
Minimal impact from the shortage of heavy equipment. PTBA recorded
production volumes of 11.2mn tons in 1H18, increased 19% yoy, which we
believe the highest compared to the peers. The impact of insufficiency of new
heavy equipments in the market is minimal for PTBA as the company’s coal seam
is very thick which allows PTBA to apply slightly different mining method
(compared to the peers) with the application of Bucket Wheel Excavator (Fig. 4).
Thus, with increasing train transportation capacity (1H18: +8.5% yoy), PTBA
could increase productivity.
Maintain Buy with higher TP of Rp5,100 (prev: Rp3,900). We maintain our
Buy recommendation for PTBA with higher DCF-based (WACC: 13.3%, TG: 2%)
target price of Rp5,100 (previously Rp3,900) as we raise our earnings forecast by
28% and 19% for FY18F and FY19F, respectively. We like PTBA as the company
booked strong production volumes growth of 19% yoy in 1H18 while its low SR of
4.3x allows the company to enjoy higher-than-peers’ margins. PTBA is currently
trades at FY18F P/E of 9.1x, lower than the average P/E of 11x in the past 7years. Please note that or new TP of Rp5,100 implies FY18F P/E of 10.9x.
frederick.daniel@ipc.co.id
Year To 31 Dec
Revenue (RpBn)
EBITDA (RpBn)
EBITDA Growth (%)
Net Profit (RpBn)
EPS (Rp)
EPS Growth (%)
Net Gearing (%)
PER (x)
PBV (x)
Dividend Yield (%)
EV/EBITDA (x)
+62 21 5793 1170
Source: PTBA, IndoPremier
Frederick Daniel
PT Indo Premier Sekuritas
Refer to Important disclosures in the last page of this report
2016A
14,059
2,959
7.7
2,006
190
(1.5)
(19.6)
22.4
4.3
1.4
14.5
2017A
19,471
6,575
122.2
4,476
425
123.1
(23.3)
10.0
3.3
1.3
6.3
2018F
20,664
6,497
(1.2)
4,912
466
9.7
(28.9)
9.1
2.9
7.5
6.2
2019F
23,989
7,284
12.1
5,545
526
12.9
(32.4)
8.1
2.6
8.8
5.8
2020F
26,544
8,004
9.9
6,126
581
10.5
(35.6)
7.3
2.4
9.9
5.6
Share Price Closing as of : 20-July-2018
PTBA IJ Results Note
Fig. 1: Production and railway transport volumes
Production volumes
Fig. 2: ASP and EBITDA margin
ASP (LHS)
Railway transports
EBITDA Margin (RHS)
35
26.4
25.7
23.5
24.2
25
160
30.3
29.1
30
27.5
140
15
12.9
11.5
14.0
11.9
16.4
14.8
15.1
20.2%
US$ per ton
(m tons)
21.4
20
33.8%
31.6%
120
19.6
17.7
19.3
50%
15.8
12.8
100
17.2%
31.4%
40%
29.2%
27.3%
20.0% 21.0%
30%
20%
81
80
10%
62
61
54
53
60
60
59
61
0%
51
10
5
0
40
-10%
20
-20%
0
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018F 2019F 2020F
Source: PTBA, IndoPremier
-30%
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018F 2019F 2020F
Source: PTBA, IndoPremier
Fig. 3: Stripping ratio (x)
Fig. 4: PTBA’s Bucket Wheel Excavator
4.9
4.6
4.4
4.2
4.4
4.0
4.5
4.5
2019F
2020F
4.0
3.6
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018F
Source: PTBA, IndoPremier
Source: PTBA
Fig. 5: Coal sales, export vs domestic
Domestic
Fig. 6: EPS growth and net margin
Export
EPS growth (LHS)
300
Net margin (RHS)
40
100%
29.2
35%
45%
54%
48%
47%
41%
39%
45%
45%
25.4
30
25.0
23.0
45%
150
14.2
(%)
60%
16.3
75
55%
20%
46%
52%
53%
59%
61%
55%
55%
55%
14.3
22.2
20.9
20
123.1
10
53.6
40%
65%
14.8
23.8
(%)
225
80%
1.9
9.7
9.4
6.5
0.4
0
0
-1.5
-6.0
-26.4
-37.0
-10
-75
0%
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018F 2019F 2020F
Source: PTBA
Refer to Important disclosures in the last page of this report
2010
2011
2012 2013
2014
2015 2016
2017 2018F 2019F 2020F
Source: PTBA, IndoPremier
2
PTBA IJ Results Note
Fig. 8: 2Q18 results summary
(Rp Bn)
Revenues
1H18
1H17
% Y-Y
2Q18
% Q-Q
% Y-Y
10,525
8,967
17.4
4,776
(16.9)
8.1
COGS
6,101
5,622
8.5
2,935
(7.3)
6.0
Gross profit
4,424
3,345
32.2
1,842
(28.7)
11.4
G&A expenses
564
517
9.2
239
(26.6)
(8.1)
Selling expenses
449
444
1.2
197
(21.6)
7.6
Other
112
93
20.7
77
121.9
71.0
3,523
2,477
42.2
1,483
(27.3)
18.2
22
(68)
neg
13
31.6
neg
(36.0)
Operating profit
Net interest inc. (exp)
Other
50
66
(23.9)
20
(33.0)
3,595
2,475
45.3
1,516
(27.1)
20.6
975
728
34.0
369
(39.1)
(6.1)
44
23
90.8
21
(5.9)
114.9
2,576
1,724
49.4
1,125
(22.5)
31.9
GPM (%)
42.0
37.3
38.6
OPM (%)
33.5
27.6
31.0
Pretax mgn (%)
34.2
27.6
31.7
NPM (%)
24.5
19.2
23.6
Pretax profit
Tax
Minority Interest
Net profit
vs. cons.
vs. ours
47.9
51.5
49.2
58.0
56.7
72.1
54.4
68.9
53.2
67.3
Source: PTBA, IndoPremier
Fig 8. Earnings revisions
(Rp Bn)
FY18F
old
new
Coal ASP ($/ton)
57.9
Coal Sales Volumes (m tons)
26.1
Revenues
FY19F
(%) change
old
new
(%) change
59.4
2.5
57.9
59.6
2.9
25.8
(1.4)
29.2
29.2
-
20,440
20,664
1.1
22,854
23,520
2.9
Gross profit
7,622
8,637
13.3
8,654
9,827
13.6
Operating profit
4,885
6,302
29.0
5,593
6,668
19.2
Pretax profit
5,220
6,695
28.3
5,998
7,129
18.8
Net profit
3,830
4,912
28.3
4,401
5,230
18.8
GPM
37.3
41.8
4.5
37.9
41.8
3.9
OPM
23.9
30.5
6.6
24.5
28.3
3.9
Pretax mgn
25.5
32.4
6.9
26.2
30.3
4.1
NPM
18.7
23.8
5.0
19.3
22.2
3.0
Margins (%)
Source: PTBA, IndoPremier
Refer to Important disclosures in the last page of this report
3
PTBA IJ Results Note
Year To 31 Dec (RpBn)
2016A
2017A
2018F
2019F
2020F
Income Statement
Net Revenue
14,059
19,471
20,664
23,989
26,544
Cost of Sales
(9,657)
(10,965)
(12,027)
(13,781)
(15,374)
Gross Profit
4,401
8,507
8,637
10,207
11,170
SG&A Expenses
(1,871)
(2,608)
(2,335)
(3,126)
(3,379)
Operating Profit
2,531
5,899
6,302
7,081
7,790
53
81
213
269
329
(13)
Net Interest
Forex Gain (Loss)
0
0
(10)
(11)
150
122
189
220
243
Pre-Tax Income
2,734
6,102
6,695
7,559
8,349
Income Tax
(709)
(1,554)
(1,706)
(1,926)
(2,127)
(18)
(71)
(78)
(88)
(97)
2,006
4,476
4,912
5,545
6,126
Cash & Equivalent
3,675
3,555
4,683
5,748
6,902
Receivable
2,285
5,344
5,671
6,584
7,285
Inventory
1,102
1,156
1,268
1,453
1,621
Other Current Assets
1,288
1,063
1,128
1,309
1,449
8,350
11,118
12,750
15,094
17,256
7,516
7,466
8,210
9,043
10,287
0
0
0
0
0
1,315
1,905
2,245
2,645
3,117
18,577
21,987
24,778
28,434
32,395
ST Loans
958
208
208
208
208
Payable
539
886
0
1,114
1,243
3,065
3,328
3,532
4,100
4,537
Others-Net
Minorities
Net Income
Balance Sheet
Total Current Assets
Fixed Assets - Net
Goodwill
Non Current Assets
Total Assets
Other Payables
Current Portion of LT Loans
Total Current Liab.
Long Term Loans
Other LT Liab.
Total Liabilities
Equity
Retained Earnings
Minority Interest
Total SHE + Minority Int.
Total Liabilities & Equity
481
91
0
0
0
5,043
4,513
4,712
5,422
5,988
167
36
36
36
36
2,814
3,638
4,670
5,994
7,694
8,024
8,187
9,418
11,452
13,718
(944)
(956)
(956)
(956)
(956)
11,366
14,565
16,119
17,735
19,424
131
192
198
204
210
10,552
13,800
15,360
16,982
18,677
18,577
21,987
24,778
28,434
32,395
Source: PTBA, IndoPremier
Refer to Important disclosures in the last page of this report
4
PTBA IJ Results Note
Year to 31 Dec
2016A
2017A
2018F
2019F
2020F
2,036
2,006
4,476
4,912
5,545
332
428
677
194
203
(1,167)
631
3,297
1,433
1,634
Cash Flow
Net Income (Excl.Extraordinary&Min.Int)
Depr. & Amortization
Changes in Working Capital
Others
Cash Flow From Operating
Capital Expenditure
Others
697
(1,137)
(6,035)
(558)
(694)
1,898
1,928
2,415
5,982
6,688
(1,247)
(574)
(677)
(943)
(1,051)
134
259
141
0
0
(1,113)
(315)
(536)
(943)
(1,051)
Loans
(426)
(237)
(881)
0
0
Equity
0
0
0
0
0
(706)
(611)
(602)
(3,357)
(3,930)
Cash Flow From Investing
Dividends
Others
(663)
(163)
(524)
(556)
(646)
(1,795)
(1,011)
(2,007)
(3,914)
(4,575)
(924)
559
(119)
1,128
1,065
Gross Margin (%)
31.3
43.7
41.8
42.6
42.1
Operating Margin (%)
18.0
30.3
30.5
29.5
29.3
Pre-Tax Margin (%)
19.4
31.3
32.4
31.5
31.5
Net Margin (%)
14.3
23.0
23.8
23.1
23.1
ROA (%)
11.3
22.1
21.0
20.8
20.1
ROE (%)
20.2
36.8
33.7
34.3
34.4
ROIC (%)
19.1
35.9
35.1
36.0
36.3
Acct. Receivables TO (days)
95.4
Cash Flow From Financing
Changes in Cash
Financial Ratios
50.4
71.5
97.3
93.2
Acct. Receivables - Other TO (days)
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
Inventory TO (days)
8.3
9.7
9.9
10.1
10.0
31.9
23.7
28.2
27.6
28.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
15.2
2.4
1.6
1.4
1.3
0.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
(19.6)
(23.3)
(28.9)
(32.4)
(35.6)
Payable TO (days)
Acct. Payables - Other TO (days)
Debt to Equity (%)
Interest Coverage Ratio (x)
Net Gearing (%)
Source: PTBA, IndoPremier
Refer to Important disclosures in the last page of this report
5
Head Office
PT INDO PREMIER SEKURITAS
Wisma GKBI 7/F Suite 718
Jl. Jend. Sudirman No.28
Jakarta 10210 - Indonesia
p +62.21.5793.1168
f +62.21.5793.1167
INVESTMENT RATINGS
BUY
: Expected total return of 10% or more within a 12-month period
HOLD
: Expected total return between -10% and 10% within a 12-month period
SELL
: Expected total return of -10% or worse within a 12-month period
ANALYSTS CERTIFICATION.
The views expressed in this research report accurately reflect the analysts personal views about any and all of the subject securities or issuers; and no part of the
research analyst's compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in the report.
DISCLAIMERS
This research is based on information obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but we do not make any representation or warranty nor accept any
responsibility or liability as to its accuracy, completeness or correctness. Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice. This document is prepared for
general circulation. Any recommendations contained in this document does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and the
particular needs of any specific addressee. This document is not and should not be construed as an offer or a solicitation of an offer to purchase or subscribe or
sell any securities. PT. Indo Premier Sekuritas or its affiliates may seek or will seek investment banking or other business relationships with the companies in this
report.
BUY
Results Note
(Unchanged)
Growing against challenges
Stock Data
Target price (Rp)
Rp5,100
Prior TP (Rp)
Rp3,900
Shareprice (Rp)
Rp4,260
Upside/downside (%)
Good 2Q18 results despite pressure from DMO pricing.
Benefit by abundant coal reserves and low production costs.
High production growth despite scarcity of heavy equipment.
+19.7
Sharesoutstanding (m)
10,540
Marketcap. (US$ m)
Maintain Buy with higher TP of Rp5,100 (prev: Rp3,900).
3,098
Free float (%)
28.7
Avg. 6m dailyT/O (US$ m)
Better than expected 2Q18 results as export sales contribution increased.
PTBA reported better than expected 2Q18 results with 1H18 net profit represent
53% and 67% of consensus’ and our forecast for FY18F, respectively. Earnings
dropped 23% qoq but up 32% yoy in 2Q18, mainly caused by DMO pricing
regulation (released on March 2018). However, PTBA managed to control
production costs, allowing the company to enjoy higher gross margin of 42% and
operating margin of 33.5% in 1H18. Cash cost (including opex and royalties)
dropped 10% yoy to Rp614k per ton in 1H18. We also note that despite pressure
from DMO pricing, coal ASP increased 8.7% yoy to Rp838k/ton in 1H18 on the
back of higher export contribution of 48% (vs. 36% in 1H17).
8.2
Price Performance
3M
6M
12M
Absolute (%)
27.2
28.3
64.2
Relative to JCI (%)
34.1
39.8
63.3
52w high/low (Rp)
4,400 - 1,845
180
160
140
120
100
PTBA-Rebase
JCI Index-Rebase
Jul-18
Jun-18
May-18
Apr-18
May-18
Mar-18
Mar-18
Jan-18
Feb-18
Jan-18
Dec-17
Nov-17
Oct-17
Sep-17
Aug-17
Jul-17
60
Nov-17
80
Aug-17
Equity | Indonesia | Commodities
23 July 2018
(PTBA IJ)
PTBA is benefited by abundant coal reserves and low production costs.
PTBA holds the largest coal reserves and the longest mine-life within our coverage
of four coal companies. PTBA had the option to change its sales mix and increase
export sales in 1H18 as the company holds abundant coal reserves with calorific
value ranging from 4,500-7,000 kcal/kg (adb). Additionally, PTBA enjoyed low
production costs supported by low stripping ratio of 4x-4.5x (1H18: 4.3x) and
efficient train transportation costs. With these low and efficient costs, PTBA’s
margin is the highest among its peers.
Major Shareholders
Inalum (Persero)
65.0%
Estimate Change; Vs. Consensus
2018F
Latest EPS (Rp)
Vs. Prior EPS (%)
2019F
466
496
28.3
18.8
5.4
6.8
Vs. Consensus (%)
Source: Bloomberg
Minimal impact from the shortage of heavy equipment. PTBA recorded
production volumes of 11.2mn tons in 1H18, increased 19% yoy, which we
believe the highest compared to the peers. The impact of insufficiency of new
heavy equipments in the market is minimal for PTBA as the company’s coal seam
is very thick which allows PTBA to apply slightly different mining method
(compared to the peers) with the application of Bucket Wheel Excavator (Fig. 4).
Thus, with increasing train transportation capacity (1H18: +8.5% yoy), PTBA
could increase productivity.
Maintain Buy with higher TP of Rp5,100 (prev: Rp3,900). We maintain our
Buy recommendation for PTBA with higher DCF-based (WACC: 13.3%, TG: 2%)
target price of Rp5,100 (previously Rp3,900) as we raise our earnings forecast by
28% and 19% for FY18F and FY19F, respectively. We like PTBA as the company
booked strong production volumes growth of 19% yoy in 1H18 while its low SR of
4.3x allows the company to enjoy higher-than-peers’ margins. PTBA is currently
trades at FY18F P/E of 9.1x, lower than the average P/E of 11x in the past 7years. Please note that or new TP of Rp5,100 implies FY18F P/E of 10.9x.
frederick.daniel@ipc.co.id
Year To 31 Dec
Revenue (RpBn)
EBITDA (RpBn)
EBITDA Growth (%)
Net Profit (RpBn)
EPS (Rp)
EPS Growth (%)
Net Gearing (%)
PER (x)
PBV (x)
Dividend Yield (%)
EV/EBITDA (x)
+62 21 5793 1170
Source: PTBA, IndoPremier
Frederick Daniel
PT Indo Premier Sekuritas
Refer to Important disclosures in the last page of this report
2016A
14,059
2,959
7.7
2,006
190
(1.5)
(19.6)
22.4
4.3
1.4
14.5
2017A
19,471
6,575
122.2
4,476
425
123.1
(23.3)
10.0
3.3
1.3
6.3
2018F
20,664
6,497
(1.2)
4,912
466
9.7
(28.9)
9.1
2.9
7.5
6.2
2019F
23,989
7,284
12.1
5,545
526
12.9
(32.4)
8.1
2.6
8.8
5.8
2020F
26,544
8,004
9.9
6,126
581
10.5
(35.6)
7.3
2.4
9.9
5.6
Share Price Closing as of : 20-July-2018
PTBA IJ Results Note
Fig. 1: Production and railway transport volumes
Production volumes
Fig. 2: ASP and EBITDA margin
ASP (LHS)
Railway transports
EBITDA Margin (RHS)
35
26.4
25.7
23.5
24.2
25
160
30.3
29.1
30
27.5
140
15
12.9
11.5
14.0
11.9
16.4
14.8
15.1
20.2%
US$ per ton
(m tons)
21.4
20
33.8%
31.6%
120
19.6
17.7
19.3
50%
15.8
12.8
100
17.2%
31.4%
40%
29.2%
27.3%
20.0% 21.0%
30%
20%
81
80
10%
62
61
54
53
60
60
59
61
0%
51
10
5
0
40
-10%
20
-20%
0
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018F 2019F 2020F
Source: PTBA, IndoPremier
-30%
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018F 2019F 2020F
Source: PTBA, IndoPremier
Fig. 3: Stripping ratio (x)
Fig. 4: PTBA’s Bucket Wheel Excavator
4.9
4.6
4.4
4.2
4.4
4.0
4.5
4.5
2019F
2020F
4.0
3.6
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018F
Source: PTBA, IndoPremier
Source: PTBA
Fig. 5: Coal sales, export vs domestic
Domestic
Fig. 6: EPS growth and net margin
Export
EPS growth (LHS)
300
Net margin (RHS)
40
100%
29.2
35%
45%
54%
48%
47%
41%
39%
45%
45%
25.4
30
25.0
23.0
45%
150
14.2
(%)
60%
16.3
75
55%
20%
46%
52%
53%
59%
61%
55%
55%
55%
14.3
22.2
20.9
20
123.1
10
53.6
40%
65%
14.8
23.8
(%)
225
80%
1.9
9.7
9.4
6.5
0.4
0
0
-1.5
-6.0
-26.4
-37.0
-10
-75
0%
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018F 2019F 2020F
Source: PTBA
Refer to Important disclosures in the last page of this report
2010
2011
2012 2013
2014
2015 2016
2017 2018F 2019F 2020F
Source: PTBA, IndoPremier
2
PTBA IJ Results Note
Fig. 8: 2Q18 results summary
(Rp Bn)
Revenues
1H18
1H17
% Y-Y
2Q18
% Q-Q
% Y-Y
10,525
8,967
17.4
4,776
(16.9)
8.1
COGS
6,101
5,622
8.5
2,935
(7.3)
6.0
Gross profit
4,424
3,345
32.2
1,842
(28.7)
11.4
G&A expenses
564
517
9.2
239
(26.6)
(8.1)
Selling expenses
449
444
1.2
197
(21.6)
7.6
Other
112
93
20.7
77
121.9
71.0
3,523
2,477
42.2
1,483
(27.3)
18.2
22
(68)
neg
13
31.6
neg
(36.0)
Operating profit
Net interest inc. (exp)
Other
50
66
(23.9)
20
(33.0)
3,595
2,475
45.3
1,516
(27.1)
20.6
975
728
34.0
369
(39.1)
(6.1)
44
23
90.8
21
(5.9)
114.9
2,576
1,724
49.4
1,125
(22.5)
31.9
GPM (%)
42.0
37.3
38.6
OPM (%)
33.5
27.6
31.0
Pretax mgn (%)
34.2
27.6
31.7
NPM (%)
24.5
19.2
23.6
Pretax profit
Tax
Minority Interest
Net profit
vs. cons.
vs. ours
47.9
51.5
49.2
58.0
56.7
72.1
54.4
68.9
53.2
67.3
Source: PTBA, IndoPremier
Fig 8. Earnings revisions
(Rp Bn)
FY18F
old
new
Coal ASP ($/ton)
57.9
Coal Sales Volumes (m tons)
26.1
Revenues
FY19F
(%) change
old
new
(%) change
59.4
2.5
57.9
59.6
2.9
25.8
(1.4)
29.2
29.2
-
20,440
20,664
1.1
22,854
23,520
2.9
Gross profit
7,622
8,637
13.3
8,654
9,827
13.6
Operating profit
4,885
6,302
29.0
5,593
6,668
19.2
Pretax profit
5,220
6,695
28.3
5,998
7,129
18.8
Net profit
3,830
4,912
28.3
4,401
5,230
18.8
GPM
37.3
41.8
4.5
37.9
41.8
3.9
OPM
23.9
30.5
6.6
24.5
28.3
3.9
Pretax mgn
25.5
32.4
6.9
26.2
30.3
4.1
NPM
18.7
23.8
5.0
19.3
22.2
3.0
Margins (%)
Source: PTBA, IndoPremier
Refer to Important disclosures in the last page of this report
3
PTBA IJ Results Note
Year To 31 Dec (RpBn)
2016A
2017A
2018F
2019F
2020F
Income Statement
Net Revenue
14,059
19,471
20,664
23,989
26,544
Cost of Sales
(9,657)
(10,965)
(12,027)
(13,781)
(15,374)
Gross Profit
4,401
8,507
8,637
10,207
11,170
SG&A Expenses
(1,871)
(2,608)
(2,335)
(3,126)
(3,379)
Operating Profit
2,531
5,899
6,302
7,081
7,790
53
81
213
269
329
(13)
Net Interest
Forex Gain (Loss)
0
0
(10)
(11)
150
122
189
220
243
Pre-Tax Income
2,734
6,102
6,695
7,559
8,349
Income Tax
(709)
(1,554)
(1,706)
(1,926)
(2,127)
(18)
(71)
(78)
(88)
(97)
2,006
4,476
4,912
5,545
6,126
Cash & Equivalent
3,675
3,555
4,683
5,748
6,902
Receivable
2,285
5,344
5,671
6,584
7,285
Inventory
1,102
1,156
1,268
1,453
1,621
Other Current Assets
1,288
1,063
1,128
1,309
1,449
8,350
11,118
12,750
15,094
17,256
7,516
7,466
8,210
9,043
10,287
0
0
0
0
0
1,315
1,905
2,245
2,645
3,117
18,577
21,987
24,778
28,434
32,395
ST Loans
958
208
208
208
208
Payable
539
886
0
1,114
1,243
3,065
3,328
3,532
4,100
4,537
Others-Net
Minorities
Net Income
Balance Sheet
Total Current Assets
Fixed Assets - Net
Goodwill
Non Current Assets
Total Assets
Other Payables
Current Portion of LT Loans
Total Current Liab.
Long Term Loans
Other LT Liab.
Total Liabilities
Equity
Retained Earnings
Minority Interest
Total SHE + Minority Int.
Total Liabilities & Equity
481
91
0
0
0
5,043
4,513
4,712
5,422
5,988
167
36
36
36
36
2,814
3,638
4,670
5,994
7,694
8,024
8,187
9,418
11,452
13,718
(944)
(956)
(956)
(956)
(956)
11,366
14,565
16,119
17,735
19,424
131
192
198
204
210
10,552
13,800
15,360
16,982
18,677
18,577
21,987
24,778
28,434
32,395
Source: PTBA, IndoPremier
Refer to Important disclosures in the last page of this report
4
PTBA IJ Results Note
Year to 31 Dec
2016A
2017A
2018F
2019F
2020F
2,036
2,006
4,476
4,912
5,545
332
428
677
194
203
(1,167)
631
3,297
1,433
1,634
Cash Flow
Net Income (Excl.Extraordinary&Min.Int)
Depr. & Amortization
Changes in Working Capital
Others
Cash Flow From Operating
Capital Expenditure
Others
697
(1,137)
(6,035)
(558)
(694)
1,898
1,928
2,415
5,982
6,688
(1,247)
(574)
(677)
(943)
(1,051)
134
259
141
0
0
(1,113)
(315)
(536)
(943)
(1,051)
Loans
(426)
(237)
(881)
0
0
Equity
0
0
0
0
0
(706)
(611)
(602)
(3,357)
(3,930)
Cash Flow From Investing
Dividends
Others
(663)
(163)
(524)
(556)
(646)
(1,795)
(1,011)
(2,007)
(3,914)
(4,575)
(924)
559
(119)
1,128
1,065
Gross Margin (%)
31.3
43.7
41.8
42.6
42.1
Operating Margin (%)
18.0
30.3
30.5
29.5
29.3
Pre-Tax Margin (%)
19.4
31.3
32.4
31.5
31.5
Net Margin (%)
14.3
23.0
23.8
23.1
23.1
ROA (%)
11.3
22.1
21.0
20.8
20.1
ROE (%)
20.2
36.8
33.7
34.3
34.4
ROIC (%)
19.1
35.9
35.1
36.0
36.3
Acct. Receivables TO (days)
95.4
Cash Flow From Financing
Changes in Cash
Financial Ratios
50.4
71.5
97.3
93.2
Acct. Receivables - Other TO (days)
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
Inventory TO (days)
8.3
9.7
9.9
10.1
10.0
31.9
23.7
28.2
27.6
28.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
15.2
2.4
1.6
1.4
1.3
0.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
(19.6)
(23.3)
(28.9)
(32.4)
(35.6)
Payable TO (days)
Acct. Payables - Other TO (days)
Debt to Equity (%)
Interest Coverage Ratio (x)
Net Gearing (%)
Source: PTBA, IndoPremier
Refer to Important disclosures in the last page of this report
5
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Jakarta 10210 - Indonesia
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f +62.21.5793.1167
INVESTMENT RATINGS
BUY
: Expected total return of 10% or more within a 12-month period
HOLD
: Expected total return between -10% and 10% within a 12-month period
SELL
: Expected total return of -10% or worse within a 12-month period
ANALYSTS CERTIFICATION.
The views expressed in this research report accurately reflect the analysts personal views about any and all of the subject securities or issuers; and no part of the
research analyst's compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in the report.
DISCLAIMERS
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responsibility or liability as to its accuracy, completeness or correctness. Opinions expressed are subject to change without notice. This document is prepared for
general circulation. Any recommendations contained in this document does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and the
particular needs of any specific addressee. This document is not and should not be construed as an offer or a solicitation of an offer to purchase or subscribe or
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