12
3.3 Project Variables Physical aspects of the MPA and project activities
Crawford, et al. 2000 identified a large number of aspects of project activities that allegedly influence success of CB-MPA projects. In this section of the analysis physical aspects of the
MPA as well as project activities not focusing on community participation are examined.
4
Physical aspects of the MPA examined include size, distance from coastal dwellings, and visibility from coastal dwellings. These three variables are expected to be related to success
through their impact on surveillance and enforcement. Size may also have independent effects on biological aspects of the resource.
Aspects of the project itself include whether or not there was an opening ceremony. Such ceremonies are expected to instill pride in the MPA on the part of the village. Another
variable is the existence of external advice on MPA establishment and operation. Advice is expected to enhance the possibilities of success. This variable is a dichotomy—present or
absent.
5
The location of the advising organization government, university, NGO, etc. is also alleged to impact success. Timely advice is facilitated if the organization is nearby.
Sites are categorized according to nearness of the advising organization 1 = in municipality, 2 = both within and outside the municipality, 3 = outside the municipality, and the categories
form an ordinal scale. Location, of course, influences the ability of community members to visit the organization when they need advice. Whether or not the community could obtain
advice at the organization is coded as a dichotomy.
Cross visits to successful MPAs have been cited as a factor enhancing chances of success. This variable is also coded as a dichotomy—whether or not a cross visit was made. Some
have suggested that the existence of other coastal resource management projects in the community can facilitate success. This variable is also dichotomous. Many rural
communities have multiple problems, and addressing some of those not related to MPAs might influence community involvement with the MPA. Hence, it was determined whether
or not some non-MPA issues were addressed by the MPA project at an early stage in the project.
The establishment of an MPA removes some of the resource from harvesting by the community. It has been argued that this should be replaced by some sort of alternative or
supplemental income generating activities. These activities are sometimes not successful, so percent successful is the measure used in this research.
6
The early identification of a core group or organization for leadership in the MPA project has also been cited as leading to
success White, et al. 1994. This variable is a dichotomy.
4
Some of the variables e.g., early formation of core group involve community participation. They are included in this section of the analysis, however, because the focus of the variable is early group formation.
5
Type of organization was determined, but it is not analyzed in this paper.
6
Type of activity was also determined, but it is not analyzed here.
13 Many individuals have argued that it is necessary to have a live-in expert extension worker
to help the community implement and monitor CBCRM projects Agbayani and Siar 1994; Alcala and Vande Vusse 1994. Presence or absence of such an expert was coded as a
dichotomy.
7
Visits to the MPA by government officials are another factor that instills community pride in the project. These types of visits are coded as a dichotomy. It is widely
accepted that training is a necessary component to any type of development or conservation project, and the establishment of a CB-MPA is no exception White, et al. 1994. Types of
training included in the project were determined, but only the number of training types is included as a variable in this analysis.
Finally, inputs financial or material are essential to project success. Carrying out surveillance, constructing guardhouses, installing marker buoys, etc. have costs. Several
aspects of providing for these costs were evaluated. The provision and adequacy of financial andor material inputs from the village, municipality, and other sources were evaluated.
These variables are also dichotomous—provision or not of financial andor material inputs and satisfactory or not. Correlations between these variables and the measures of
components of success and the composite success measures can be found in Tables 7 and 8.
Focusing only on components statistically significantly p 0.05 related to CB-MPA success we find that the size of the MPA is significantly related to Coral Health. This correlation is
suspicious because the largest MPA is more than twice as large as the next largest and more than 20 times as large as more than 50 percent of the sample. It is also a successful MPA;
hence, the distribution of size is highly skewed with a successful outlier—a fact that can result in an erroneous correlation.
7
Type of expert as well as frequency of contact was determined but not analyzed in this paper.
Table 7. Correlations between project activities, aspects of the MPA, and components of CB-MPA success.
Coral Resource
MPA Community
Community Health
Perception Features
Compliance Empowerment
MPA size 0.459
0.045 0.168
0.068 0.089
MPA distance 0.172
-0.163 -0.268
-0.172 -0.147
MPA visible -0.224
0.009 0.118
0.054 0.139
MPA ceremony 0.051
0.074 0.548
0.242 0.284
External advice 0.178
0.283 0.348
0.219 0.272
Distance to advice org. -0.067 -0.035
0.079 -0.006
0.007 Advice at organization
0.198 0.250
0.548 0.381
0.334 Cross visits
-0.135 -0.082
0.432 0.133
0.279 Other CRMP in village
0.564 0.129
0.111 0.242
0.132 Non-MPA issues addressed 0.311
0.129 0.408
0.272 0.349
succ. alternative inc. 0.206 0.243
0.565 0.530
0.577 Core group early
0.026 0.106
0.654 0.475
0.497 Live-in expert
0.052 0.020
0.039 0.124
0.218 Government visits
0.143 0.042
0.456 0.389
0.417 Initial training number
0.117 0.053
0.663 0.296
0.365 Municipal input
0.161 0.071
0.202 0.333
0.260 Village input
-0.313 0.219
0.280 0.201
0.333 Other input
0.085 0.228
0.509 0.290
0.356 Municipal input OK
0.133 0.190
0.375 0.458
0.458 Village input OK
-0.105 0.312
0.173 0.122
0.333 Other input OK
0.131 -0.035
0.383 0.181
0.220_____ = p 0.05
= p 0.01 = p 0.001
14 An opening ceremony is
positively related to MPA Features and the three
composite success measures. External
advice is related to MPA Features, Composite
Success 1 and Composite Success 3. The
opportunity of obtaining advice at the advising
organization’s office is positively related to three
of the components of success MPA Features,
Community Compliance, Community
Empowerment as well as all three composite
measures. Having another CRM project in the village is only positively related to Coral Health, but addressing non-MPA issues early in the project is positively related to three of the
components of success Coral Health, MPA Features, Community Empowerment and two of the composite measures Composite Success 1, Composite Success 3. Percent of successful
alternative income projects, early formation of the core group, visits by government officials, number of initial trainings, and satisfaction with municipal inputs are positively related to
three of the components of success MPA Features, Community Compliance, Community Empowerment as well as all three composite measures. Municipal input is positively related
to Community Compliance and Composite Success 3. Village input is negatively related to Coral Health and positively related to Community Empowerment and Composite Success
1. Other input non-municipal and non-village is positively related to two components of success MPA Features, Community Empowerment and all three composite measures.
Satisfaction with village input is positively related to Resource Perception, Community Empowerment and Composite Success 3. Finally satisfaction with other input is positively
related to only MPA Features.
Community participation and continuity of activities This section of the analysis examines the impacts of community participation and continuity
of project activities. Many of the factors alleged to influence success in Crawford, et al. 2000 involve some aspect of local participation in the project. Local level participation in
project development and implementation has long been recognized as a factor promoting desired changes Cernea 1991; Chambers 1983; Morss, et al. 1976; Rogers 1969; and CB-
CRM projects are no exception to this rule Pomeroy, et al. 1997; Pomeroy 1994; White et al. 1994. Continued engagement of outside facilitators is also suggested as an important factor
Crawford, et al. 2000. Here we examine the impacts of whether or not the community initiated the MPA dichotomy, influenced aspects of the MPA such as size and location
Table 8. Correlations between project activities, aspects of the MPA, and composite measures of CB-MPA success.
Composite Composite
Composite Success 1
Success 2 Success 3_
MPA size 0.123
0.174 0.219
MPA distance -0.238
-0.209 -0.182
MPA visible 0.105
0.203 0.184
MPA ceremony 0.380
0.402 0.378
External advice 0.352
0.281 0.313
Distance to advice org. 0.020
-0.015 -0.087
Advice at organization 0.483
0.409 0.420
Cross visits 0.263
0.191 0.158
Other CRMP in village 0.186
0.144 0.300
Non-MPA issues addressed 0.372 0.262
0.311 succ. alternative inc. 0.606
0.569 0.633
Core group early 0.562
0.515 0.475
Live-in expert 0.123
0.032 0.059
Government visits 0.422
0.428 0.441
Initial training number 0.458
0.385 0.382
Municipal input 0.270
0.274 0.305
Village input 0.324
0.282 0.278
Other input 0.444
0.359 0.335
Municipal input OK 0.464
0.463 0.501
Village input OK 0.287
0.280 0.305
Other input OK 0.253
0.181 0.228____
= p 0.05 = p 0.01
= p 0.001
15 dichotomy, whether or not there were community consultations and if they were formal,
informal or both all dichotomies, the frequency of consultations, whether or not the community had a formal vote at a village assembly on the MPA dichotomy, and whether or
not the community made any contributions money, material, labor to the development of the MPA dichotomy. With respect to continuity of project activities, the number of
ongoing trainings and whether or not contact with outside facilitators continued after the development of the MPA were determined. Correlations between these variables and the
measures of components of success and the composite success measures can be found in Tables 9 and 10.
Overall, the analysis indicates statistically
significant positive correlations between
most of the community participation and
continuity of activities and all the success
variables except Coral Health and Resource
Perception. The only exceptions are
community influence on MPA characteristics such as size and location and community initiation of the MPA. None of the factors are related to Coral Health, and only two are
positively related to Resource Perception frequency of community consultations and formal vote at village assembly.
Relationships between combinations of factors and CB-MPA success While the individual correlations between pairs of variables demonstrated relatively strong
and statistically significant relationships between many of the factors and the success measures, it is combinations of these factors and their influence on CB-MPA success that
reflects the situation we find in the real world. Bivariate relationships are interesting, but it is the combination of variables that can be elucidated by multivariate analyses that are of most
interest to the individuals concerned with establishing successful CB-MPAs.
Table 9. Correlations between community participation, continuity of activities and components of CB-MPA success.
Coral Resource
MPA Community
Community Health
Perception Features
Compliance Empowerment
Community influenced -0.104
0.131 0.233
0.150 0.256
Village initiated -0.031
-0.106 -0.100
0.014 0.082
Community consultations 0.161
0.234 0.554
0.423 0.427
Comm. consult. Formal 0.116
0.071 0.428
0.313 0.348
Comm. consult. Informal 0.174
0.001 0.535
0.436 0.566
Consultation frequency 0.188
0.315 0.637
0.347 0.387
Village vote 0.062
0.359 0.385
0.317 0.243
Comm. Contributions 0.109
0.258 0.412
0.293 0.395
Ongoing trainings No. 0.100
-0.053 0.602
0.333 0.466
Continuing advice 0.183
0.359 0.504
0.364 0.395___
= p 0.05 = p 0.01
= p 0.001
Table 10.Correlations between community participation, continuity of activities and composite measures of CB-MPA success.
Composite Composite
Composite Success 1
Success 2 Success 3_
Community influenced 0.244
0.217 0.178
Village initiated -0.036
-0.091 -0.094
Community consultations 0.522 0.414
0.455 Comm. consult. Formal
0.379 0.303
0.324 Comm. consult. Informal 0.505
0.446 0.445
Consultation frequency 0.540
0.482 0.466
Village vote 0.405
0.355 0.359
Comm. Contributions 0.429
0.408 0.403
Ongoing trainings No. 0.450
0.353 0.335
Continuing advice 0.510
0.408 0.455__
= p 0.05 = p 0.01
= p 0.001
16 The technique used here to identify combinations of factors that can be used to predict
success of CB-MPAs is forward stepwise regression analysis. In the application used here, all independent
variables factors that are said to be
related to CB-MPA success statistically
significantly p 0.05 related to a
success measure are intercorrelated with
the dependent variable success
measure. The one with the highest
correlation the one that explains the
most variance in the success measure is
entered first into the multiple regression
equation. Then the effects of the entered
variable are controlled, and the
variable with the highest partial
correlation with the success measure is
entered into the equation. The R
2
squared multiple correlation
coefficient, which is equal to the amount
of variance explained in the
success measure for the two independent
variables and the dependent is then
calculated. The next step enters the independent variable that has the highest partial correlation with the success
measure controlling for variables already entered. This stepwise procedure is continued until
Table 11. Multiple predictors of components of CB-MPA success.
DEPENDENT VARIABLE: Coral Health
STANDARDIZED INDEPENDENT VARIABLE
COEFFICIENT t
p 2-tail Village input
-0.284 -2.645
0.012 MPA size
0.356 3.354
0.002 Other CRMP in village
0.462 4.339
0.001 Non-MPA issues addressed
0.322 3.015
0.005___ R=0.788
R
2
=0.621 Adj. R
2
=0.578 F=14.365
p 0.001 N=40
Results unreliable due to outliers for variable MPA size
DEPENDENT VARIABLE: Resource Perception
STANDARDIZED INDEPENDENT VARIABLE
COEFFICIENT t
p 2-tail 1995 Village population
-0.430 -3.316
0.002 Continuing advice
0.296 2.286
0.027___ R=0.556
R
2
=0.310 Adj. R
2
=0.277 F= 9.420
p 0.001 N=45
DEPENDENT VARIABLE: MPA Features
STANDARDIZED INDEPENDENT VARIABLE
COEFFICIENT t
p 2-tail Crisis in fish
0.194 2.400
0.021 Initial trainings No.
0.194 1.801
0.080 Transportation integration
0.179 2.193
0.035 MPA ceremony
0.215 2.447
0.019 Non-MPA issues addressed
0.290 3.548
0.001 Core group early
0.456 4.412
0.001___ R=0.881
R
2
=0.776 Adj. R
2
=0.740 F=21.903
p 0.001 N=45
DEPENDENT VARIABLE: Community Compliance
STANDARDIZED INDEPENDENT VARIABLE
COEFFICIENT t
p 2-tail Fishing rank
-0.250 -2.215
0.033 Level of democracy
0.296 2.587
0.013 Pct. successful alt. income projects
0.395 3.407
0.002 Municipal input
0.267 2.375
0.022___ R=0.710
R
2
=0.504 Adj. R
2
=0.455 F=10.181
p 0.001 N=45
DEPENDENT VARIABLE: Community Empowerment
STANDARDIZED INDEPENDENT VARIABLE
COEFFICIENT t
p 2-tail Level of democracy
0.243 2.324
0.025 1995 Village population
-0.329 -3.246
0.002 Community consultations informal
0.350 3.170
0.003 Pct. successful alt. income projects
0.299 2.772
0.010___ R=0.793
R
2
=0.628 Adj. R
2
=0.590 F=16.484
p 0.001 N=44
17 some pre-set criterion is reached. In this case the criterion was that the variable to be entered
has a p 0.05. Partial correlations were carefully examined at each step to insure that multicollinearity did not have an effect on the analysis. Following the stepwise procedure,
the sets of variables entered were then entered into a multiple regression analysis on their respective dependent variables. This was done because some of the variables used in the
stepwise procedure had missing data for some sites. These sites were eliminated in the stepwise analysis. If the variables with the missing data were not entered into the equation,
an analysis using only the variables entered would include sites previously excluded in the stepwise procedure. The results of these analyses are in Tables 11 and 12.
Results in Table 11 are quite impressive.
Most of the adjusted R
2
are in excess of .50 indicating that
more than 50 percent of the variance in
three of the five components of
success can be explained by a
combination of the predictor variables.
The results in Table 12 are even more
impressive. All of the adjusted R
2
are in excess of .50. With
respect to Table 12, it is interesting to
note that most of the same predictor
variables are found in all three analyses.
Table 12. Multiple predictors of composite measures of CB-MPA success.
DEPENDENT VARIABLE: Composite Success 1
STANDARDIZED INDEPENDENT VARIABLE
COEFFICIENT t
p 2-tail 1995 Village population
-0.342 -3.627
0.001 Continuing advice
0.297 3.045
0.004 Level of democracy
0.297 3.146
0.003 Pct. successful alt. income projects
0.301 2.906
0.006 Crisis in fish
0.201 2.114
0.041___ R=0.825
R
2
=0.680 Adj. R
2
=0.639 F=16.573
p 0.001 N=45
DEPENDENT VARIABLE: Composite Success 2
STANDARDIZED INDEPENDENT VARIABLE
COEFFICIENT t
p 2-tail 1995 Village population
-0.392 -3.730
0.001 Continuing advice
0.222 2.064
0.046 Level of democracy
0.277 2.677
0.011 Pct. successful alt. income projects
0.325 2.872
0.007____ R=0.769
R
2
=0.592 Adj. R
2
=0.551 F=14.511
p 0.001 N=45
DEPENDENT VARIABLE: Composite Success 3
STANDARDIZED INDEPENDENT VARIABLE
COEFFICIENT t
p 2-tail 1995 Village population
-0.363 -3.946
0.001 Continuing advice
0.286 3.124
0.004 Level of democracy
0.309 3.567
0.001 Pct. successful alt. income projects
0.306 3.102
0.004 Municipal input
0.262 3.029
0.005___ R=0.865
R
2
=0.749 Adj. R
2
=0.713 F=20.840
p 0.001 N=41
18
4. Discussion and Conclusions