Crude Oil Price Fluctuations

capacity, Indonesia has to depend on imported food crops such as maize, soybean, sugar and wheat. This, hence, may cause Indonesia to be more vulnerable to international food price volatilities.

2.3.1 Rice

Rice is a major staple food for most Indonesian people. As shown in Figure 2 below, there has been an increase in rice production during the past 14 years from 51 million tonnes in 2000 to 70.8 million tonnes in 2014. On the other hand, according to a survey conducted by related ministries and institutions, rice consumption by households and restaurants accounts for 114 kg per capita or 28 million tonnes per year Deny 2015. The government expects that Indonesia is able to achieve self-sufficiency in rice and therefore after his election as the Indonesian President in 2014, Joko Widodo has banned the import of rice. Figure 2.1 Rice Production in Indonesia Source: BPS-Statistics Indonesia

2.3.2 Maize

The production of other staple commodities, such as maize, soybeans and sugar, has grown at varying levels. As shown in Figure 3 below, the production of maize has risen over the past 14 years from 9.6 million tonnes in 2000 to 19 million tonnes in 2014. However, based on data from the Indonesian Ministry of Agriculture, domestic production cannot fulfill domestic demand at 19.97 million tonnes Ningsih 2015. This high demand leads to a deficit in maize. 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 m il li o n to nnes Rice Production Figure 2.2 Maize Production in Indonesia Source: BPS-Statistics Indonesia

2.3.3 Soybean

In Indonesia, soybeans are commonly used for producing tofu and tempeh. As a secondary crop, soybeans are less attractive for farmers compared to other food crops, such as rice and maize, which are more profitable. This has stimulated land-use competition and as long as the relative price of soybeans is lower than the other two commodities farmers will have low incentive to grow soybeans on their land Agustine 2014. As shown in Figure 4 below, the domestic soybean production has decreased from 1.01 million tonnes in 2000 to 954 thousand tonnes in 2014. Moreover, the national demand for soybeans, accounting for 2.23 million tonnes, exceeds domestic production encouraging the dependency on imported soybeans. 5 10 15 20 25 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 m il li o n to nnes Maize Production