Protected Areas Production forests

98

4.2 Business-as-Usual deforestation and degradation estimates

4.2.1 Protected Areas

The business as usual BAU scenario projects average historical rates of forest loss and emissions for both conservation and protection forests. Three alternative baselines were evaluated: . The low case uses the -year average emissions; . A medium case was created that assumes that the emissions from will continue for the next five years. . A high emissions scenario projects emissions to grow at per year The impact of a REDD scenario assumes current forest loss is eliminated over a five year period Table . Over the following ten years, a portion of the land is projected to be restored and then stabilized at a higher percent forest cover. Based on the estimates from MODS imagery, and assuming a year time-frame for reducing forest losses to zero, the Base case low case estimate is that there is a potential to avoid emissions of approximately million tonnes of CO over a -year period from conservation forests, and million tonnes over the same period from protection forests. This would represent a net gain of million tonnes over the next years, equivalent to million of carbon credits

4.2.2 Production forests

4.2.2.1 Natural forests. The continuing loss of natural Production Forest over the next years based on BAU projections depends on whether the figure are based on MODS or Landsat data. As Table illustrates a schedule of reduced carbon emissions from complete elimination of loss of production forests can be calculated against the above BAU scenario . This gives the maximum possible gains to be made from REDD. A stream of carbon reduction benefits from doing this has been calculated for each scenario. Using a social discount rate of per annum, the potential value of carbon credits is US . billon using the - projection base, and . billion using the base. ] This is conservative compared with the rate of growth of approximately per year for the past four years. ] Assuming a base price of per ton ] Assuming a base price of per tonne and a carbon stocking rate of tonne of carbon per ha. in primary forest and tonne per ha in secondary forest. The detailed assumptions and parameter value calculations are shown in Annex of the main report from this Study, and in a spreadsheet projection model developed for this purpose, posted on the Wiki site for information from the ndonesia Forest Climate Alliance. The main report and model show results for sensitivity testing on all the major variables used in these calculations 99 Table 17. A comparison of between BAU projected losses of CO from Conservation areas and Protected Forest and those which could be achieved through a REDD management focus Conservation forests BAU loss ha , , , , , , REDD loss ha , , , , , - Protection forests LOW BAU loss ha , , , , , , REDD loss ha , , , , , - ME- DUM BAU loss ha , , , , , , REDD loss ha , , , , , - G BAU loss ha , , , , , , REDD loss ha , , , , , - Table 18. BAU production forest area projections - , in millions ha Basis for Calculation MODIS: 200106 . . . . . . LANDSAT:199703 . . . . . . 4.2.2.2 Industrial plantations and the pulp and paper industry Past clearing of native forests, driven by the demand for pulp, has mainly taken place in proximity to the large mills that have not established adequate areas of plantation sources. These mills have made use of available supplies of MT within a commercial distance of their operations. There is a serious risk that future pressures on native forests will grow because of a newly booming export market for chip, and projected expansion in domestic markets to meet planned new pulp mills. This demand is likely to be directed to areas of ndonesia that still have large stocks of natural forest remaining, in particular in Kalimantan and Papua. Based on analysis of land cover data, approximately of land allocated for T is secondary forest, is primary forest, and is on peat Table . Assuming a year old Acacia plantation contains m C per ha, on of land allocated for T production, the establishment of plantations will result in net carbon losses. Another of land that may be available for plantation development is classified as shrub and, depending on the biomass on these degraded lands, the net carbon loss of plantation establishment may be either negative or positive. Barren land 100 and savanna, where the net carbon impacts of plantation development are likely to be positive make up of the total. n the medium term, capacity at existing pulp mills is projected to increase by around . million Mtpa . n the longer term, total national capacity may reach million or even million Mtpa. f the latter number is assumed, national pulp production at full capacity will require a total plantation base of approximately million hectares: million hectares more than the current planted area. A further million hectares might be developed for exports of wood chips. Plantations yet to be established for solid wood products may occupy another million hectares. Thus, the predicted total additional plantation area is around million hectares. f it is assumed that half of the additional T needed for national pulp production , hectares is developed on non-forested peat, emissions from the first five years of this development will be million tons of CO , tonnes of CO per hectare . Assuming the remaining pulpwood . million hectares and solid wood plantations million hectares are established on degraded natural forest on mineral soils, with an average of tons of carbon tonnes CO , where net emissions will be around tonnes of CO per hectare, total net emissions from vegetation clearing will be about . billion tonnes of CO : equivalent to a potential carbon value of US . billion.

4.2.3 Oil Palm