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and other fibre products and for solid wood. n addition, convertible production forest will continue to be used for estate crops and for agriculture and settlement
at an increasing rate as local governments strive for economic independence and strategic products like palm oil and biofuels increase in importance. As ndonesia s
population continues to grow through the current long term plan projections towards
million, there is also going to be continuing pressure for land reform and reallocation of forest estate to support the growing numbers of people.
Each of these uses and projected uses, constitute controlled changes to the forest
estate that can be planned. They therefore represent projected changes in forest
cover that can be accommodated in the national baseline for future carbon credits through avoided deforestation and degradation REDD .
n addition to these losses, the largest length of the boundaries of the production forests and the protected areas are more difficult to control and are therefore
open to unplanned encroachment from communities of local people or other
commercial forest users, and subject to small and large scale illegal logging. Planned controlled and unplanned uncontrolled losses from the forest estate
require different management approaches, and often different agencies for enforcement. Table sets out a decision framework which accommodates this
reality across the major forest land use types.
4.3.1 Planned forest losses
ndustrial tree plantations will expand significantly over the next years. As the availability of timber from natural forests is declining, pulp producers, plywood
producers, and furniture manufacturers are increasingly turning to fast growing tree species, grown in plantations, as a source of raw material. National pulp
production capacity will continue to expand, requiring an increase in plantation area. Over recent years, there has also been a growth in chipping mills that produce
pulpwood chips for export, creating further demand for plantations. 4.3.1.1 Forest plantations and the pulp and paper industry.
The Ministry of Forestry MOF has allocated over million hectares for industrial plantation T concessions. n addition, MOF has plans to establish another .
million hectares of community based timber plantations TR up to . This
land, within the Production Forest zone contains forest vegetation which varies from primary forest to heavily degraded forest and is located on mineral as well
as peat soils. The largest portion of ndonesia s commercial tree plantations T is dedicated
to supplying the pulp and paper industry. An existing pulp processing capacity in excess of a sustainable supply of timber remains a major driver of deforestation
and degradation of natural forests There is no question that a sustainable industry will require a rate of supply of
timber which is excess of that which can be sourced at sustainable rates from the
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natural forest. ntensive plantation silviculture on degraded and commercially unproductive land is the strategic option open for this to occur. nvestment of this
sort will contribute to the growth of the industry and will diminish the pressure on the remaining natural forests. owever, for this strategy to be most effective in
reducing emissions, it will be important for the plantation industry to reduce CO loss from the land clearing phase and also to emphasize development on mineral
as opposed to peatsoils.
Table 20.
A decision framework for planned and unplanned drivers of deforestation and degradation related to the major forest land uses.
Planned forest loss
T Plantations Allow T on
forested land Only allow on
mineral soil Allow on peat
Only allow T on cleared land
Oil palm Allow oil palm on
forested land Only allow on
mineral soil Allow on peat
Only allow oil palm on cleared
land Unplanned forest
loss Production
forest estate P
Achieve sustainable
management Existing
management Open access
Achieve sustainable
management Existing
management Conservation
forest estate Conservation
forest Achieve
sustainable management
Restore viable areas
Do not restore Existing
management Protection forest
Achieve sustainable
management Restore viable
areas Do not restore
Existing management
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4.3.1.2 Oil Palm The area of land occupied by oil palm plantations in ndonesia has increased
fold since to occupy an estimated . million ha in
. Most of this expansion has occurred in the six provinces of Riau, South Sumatra, North
Sumatra, West Kalimantan, Jambi and Central Kalimantan. The prolific growth of the oil palm sector has conferred important economic
benefits: palm oil has become a valuable source of foreign exchange, revenue and employment. A hectare of oil palm in ndonesia produces a Net Present Value over
years of between , ,
depending on location. Peat soils produce higher yields per hectare than plantations on mineral soils and result in a Net
Present Value of , per hectare .
Oil palm expansion has occurred at the expense of ndonesia s natural forest cover and has been implicated in the causes of wildfires and peatland degradation. All
of these land use changes have resulted in carbon emissions. More data needs to be collected from provinces in which oil palm is concentrated before a more
accurate picture of the impact on deforestation, peatland degradation and carbon emissions can be determined.
4.3.2 Unplanned forest losses
