Results Gross Deforestation. Historic Deforestation and GHG Emissions 2000-2005

23 Emissions from soil from deforestation of peat swamp forest. This dataset was developed from data from Delft ydraulics on carbon emissions from peat swamp drainage presented in ooijer et al. . t was assumed that forest cover removal of peat swamp forests was accompanied by drainage. Emissions from drainage are based on the equation Y = X . , where Y = annual soil CO emissions t CO ha.yr ; X= common drainage depth of cm when peat swamp forests are converted to other land uses, resulting in an estimated annual emission of t CO per ha when swamp forests are converted and drained. Once converted and drained, the peat continues to emit CO . For the analysis presented here, this was set to years as the approximate mid-point of the - period of analysis. Emission from fires in peat swamp forests. The estimates of emissions from fire in peat swamps are based on an estimate of the area of peat swamp that burned during the - interval and an estimate of the emissions of CO per unit area burned. The area burned was estimated from hotspot counts from satellite imagery ATSR instrument, km resolution, band , and an algorithm relating heat intensity to area burned . The fire algorithm has limitations due to cloud presence and atmospheric effects. The emissions for carbon dioxide and methane were calculated using equations from the PCC AFOLU. The calculations of emissions from peat burning first estimated the mass of peat burned—the product of depth of peat burned and the bulk density of the peat . Emissions factors for CO . t CO t of burned peat mass and C . t C t burned peat mass were then applied to the estimated quantity of peat burned resulting in estimates of emissions of CO -e per ha of peat swamp burned.

2.3.3 Results Gross Deforestation.

The analysis suggests that percent forest area loss estimates from MODS can be corrected with LANDSAT. The relationship between MODS estimates and LANDSAT estimates is linear with r of . and a residual standard error . Figure . This residual standard error is used as an approximation of the standard deviation of forest area loss. ] Muraleedharan et al. ] Peat depth: cm and peat density . t m based on data in Page et al. ] Co -e: the carbon dioxide equivalent or CO e is a measure for describing how much global warming potential a given type and amount of greenhouse gas may cause, using the functionally equivalent amount or concentration of carbon dioxide CO as the reference—for methane this equivalent factor is that is molecule of C has a times greater warming effect than CO 24 Figure 3. Relationship between percent forest area loss from LANDSAT and MODS estimates. Red, yellow and cyan are for Stratum + , - and - respectively. During the five year period - , a total of about . million ha of forest were deforested in ndonesia Table , or about . of ndonesia s forest area. Deforestation increased during the -year period, from . million ha in - to . million ha in - . This value is considerably lower than the previously reported estimates of . million ha per year for - reported in the FAO report reported to FAO by the Government of ndonesia . About of the deforestation occurred in dry land forests and in peat swamp forests. n the dry land forests, the highest rates of loss occurred in production forest and non-forest area , while in peat swamp forest the losses were greatest in production and conversion forests . Biomass Carbon Stock . The biomass carbon stock of the forests range between and tCha for dryland forest and between and tCha for peat swamp forest . The lowest estimates are in forests on Java, while the highest occur in Kalimantan and Papua Figure . The resolution of the carbon maps is coarse as the data used to create it were based on regional and national datasets ] ansen et al., . Forest change in ndonesia - . Draft report of a summer workshop. ] FAO . ] Based on Gibbs and Brown 25 e.g. climate, inventory data for calibration, and population density data at sub- national scales . This type of country-wide map is a preliminary estimate with relatively high uncertainty. Data from the National Forest nventory NF might be potential to be used for the improvement of this analysis. The carbon stock map was overlaid on the map of forest typefunctional class to calculate the area-weighted average carbonbiomass. The resulting pattern suggests that on average the carbon stock in peat swamp forest is slightly higher than those in dry land forest Figure 4 and Table 5. The data fi t normal distribution Figure 5. In the subsequent analysis, these data were used in the calculation of historical emissions by sectors. 26 The S igni fic anc e of REDD f or Indone sia Table 4. Gross forest loss by province between and in hectare Dry land Forest Peatswamp Province Conser- vation Conver- sion Landuse unknown Non-forest area Produc- tion Protec- tion Grand Total Conser- vation Conver- sion Landuse unknown Non- forest area Produc- tion Protec- tion Grand Total Bali , , Bangka Belitung , , , , Banten , , DY , , Dki Jakarta Jawa Barat , , , Jawa Tengah , , , Jawa Timur , , , , Jawa Total , , , , Kalimantan Barat , , , , , , , , , Kalimantan Selatan , , , , , , , , Kalimantan Tengah , , , , , , , Kalimantan Timur , , , , , , , Kalimantan Total , , , , , , , , , , , , , Maluku , , , , , , Maluku Utara , , , , , Maluku Total , , , , , , Nusa Tenggara Barat , , , , Nusa Tenggara Timur , , , , , Nusa Total , , , , , 27 FR OM DEF O RE S TA T ION AND F O RE S T DE GR AD A T ION R educing Emissions IN INDONESIA Dry land Forest Peatswamp Province Conser- vation Conver- sion Landuse unknown Non-forest area Produc- tion Protec- tion Grand Total Conser- vation Conver- sion Landuse unknown Non- forest area Produc- tion Protec- tion Grand Total Papua Barat , , , , , , , , , Papua Barat slands , Papua Tengah , , , , , , , , Papua Timur , , , , , , , , , , , Papua Total , , , , , , , , , , , Gorontalo , , , Sulawesi Selatan , , , , , Sulawesi Tengah , , , , , Sulawesi Tenggara , , , , , , Sulawesi Utara , , , Sulawesi Total , , , , , , Bengkulu , , Daerah stimewa Aceh , , , , , , Jambi , , , , , , , , , Lampung , , , , , , Riau , , , , , , , , , , , Sumatera Barat , , , , , , , Sumatera Selatan , , , , , , , , , , , , Sumatera Utara , , , , , , , , , , , Sumatra Total , , , , , , , , , , , , , NDONESA , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , 28 Figure 4. Above and below ground carbon stocks in ndonesia Table 5. Number of sample n , mean,and pooled standard deviation of area-weighted average biomass by forest type Peat Swamp Dry land NAME LANDUSE Mean S pooled N Mean S pooled n Conservation . . Conversion . . Landuse unknown . . Non-forest area . . Production . . Protection . . Figure 5. Distribution of above-below ground biomass tCha for dry land and peat swamp forests. 29 Gross Emissions from Deforestation. Gross emissions resulting from deforestation of dry land and peat swamp forest in the period of and were about , million tonne Table . An additional emission of about million tonne came from burning peat Table . Thus, a total of , M t CO -e or . billion tonne CO equivalent were emitted during this period resulting in an annual estimate of 502 million t CO 2 -e. Considering the rate of emissions by sources, the highest emissions came from the removal of vegetation from dry land and peat swamp forest ecosystems Figure . The average area weighted CO emissions per ha total emissions divided by total area deforested or burned for vegetation are three times higher than the combined emissions due to draining and burning peat t CO -eha . Emissions per ha from mineral soils is extremely small, due mostly to the fact that most forests are converted to perennial crops, which cause little to no loss in soil carbon. 30 The S igni fic anc e of REDD f or Indone sia Table 6. Mean and standard deviation of CO emission from deforestation by province and forest function from - X tonne Province Conservation Conversion Landuse unknown Non-forest area Production Protection Grand Total Mean Stdev Mean Stdev Mean Stdev Mean Stdev Mean Stdev Mean Stdev Bali Bangka Belitung , , , , , , Banten , , DY DK Jakarta Jawa Barat , , , , Jawa Tengah , , , , Jawa Timur , , , , , Jawa Total , , , , , , Kalimantan Barat , , , , , , , Kalimantan Selatan , , , , , , , , Kalimantan Tengah , , , , , , Kalimantan Timur , , , , , , Kalimantan Total , , , , , , , , , , Maluku , , , , , , Maluku Utara , , , , Maluku Total , , , , , , , Nusa Tenggara Barat , , , , , Nusa Tenggara Timur , , , , , Nusa Tenggara Total , , , , , , , , Papua Barat , , , , , , , Papua Barat slands , , 31 FR OM DEF O RE S TA T ION AND F O RE S T DE GR AD A T ION R educing Emissions IN INDONESIA Province Conservation Conversion Landuse unknown Non-forest area Production Protection Grand Total Mean Stdev Mean Stdev Mean Stdev Mean Stdev Mean Stdev Mean Stdev Papua Tengah , , , , , Papua Timur , , , , , , , , , , Papua Total , , , , , , , , , , , Gorontalo , , , , Sulawesi Selatan , , , , , , Sulawesi Tengah , , , , Sulawesi Tenggara , , , , , , , , Sulawesi Utara , , , Sulawesi Total , , , , , , , , , , , Bengkulu , , , Daerah stimewa Aceh , , , , , Jambi , , , , , , , Lampung , , , , , , Riau , , , , , , , , , , Sumatera Barat , , , , , Sumatera Selatan , , , , , , , , , , Sumatera Utara , , , , , , , , , Sumatera Total , , , , , , , , , , , , ndonesia Total , , , , , , , , , Note: The source of uncertainty considered only from forest area loss and ABG biomass stock, while from soils and peat burning are excluded. 32 Table 7. Total emissions from deforestation in the period - by islands Peat burned Forest Loss ha CO emissions Mt CO -e C emissions Mt CO -e Total Emission Mt CO -e Bali Bangka Jawa Kalimantan . . . . Maluku Nusa Papua Sulawesi Sumatra . . . . Total . . . . 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 Pea ts wam p v eget at ion D ry land v eget at ion Bur ni ng o f peat Pe at so il d rai na ge D ry land s oi l E m is si on R at e ton C O 2e ha Figure 6. Emissions in tonne CO -e per ha from different sources Deforestation and emissions by regionisland. ndonesia has different levels of emissions from deforestation within each island. The highest emissions are from Sumatra, accounting for almost of all emissions, with Kalimantan a second with Figure . The combined total for these two islands is , highlighting the importance of focusing on the these islands in implementing reduced emission strategies. 33 Total CO2-e emissions per island Sulawesi, 4 Papua, 7 Nusa Tengarra group, 1 Maluku, 2 Jawa, 1 Bali, 0 Bangka, 1 Kalimantan, 28 Sumatra, 56 Figure 7. Total CO -e emissions by regionisland from deforestation during the period - . The high emissions from Sumatra and Kalimantan are due to the high rates of deforestation in these two islands— of the total Figure , and for Sumatra the important contribution of the existing focus on removal of peatswamp forests. 200,000 400,000 600,000 800,000 1,000,000 1,200,000 Bal i Ban gk a Ja wa Kal im anta n Ma luk u Nu sa Pap ua Sul awes i Sum atra Area ha deforested Dryland forest Peatswamp Peatswamp burned Figure 8. Area of dryland and peat swamp forests deforested during - by sland. 34 Figure shows that deforestation of dryland forests in Sumatra emits the same order of magnitude of CO as from peat swamp forests when the peat and soil are included. n Kalimantan, emissions from dryland forests are about six times higher than from peat swamp forests. 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 Bali Bangk a Ja wa Kalim ant an Ma lu ku Nu sa T engarra group Papua Sulaw es i Sum at ra Millio n t C O 2e Dryland vegetation Mineral soil Peatswamp forest Peatland soil Peatforest burning Figure 9. CO -e emissions per island by emissions category - Deforestation and emissions from major landscape categories n terms of total CO emissions, deforestation of dryland forests in ndonesia are a larger source of total emissions than peat swamp forests of the total; Figure . Draining and burning deforested peat swamp forests accounted for of the total emissions, with practically all the rest due to the clearing of vegetation. Emissions from the soil component of the carbon pool were about of the total for both the dryland mineral soils and for peat. owever, the importance of peat as a source of carbon can be appreciated when it is considered that . million ha of dryland forest were cleared compared to . million ha of peat forest. 35 Sources of emmissions due to land use change in percent of total land use change emmissions Peat soil 9 Dryland Vegetation 62 Peatswamp forest vegetation 27 Dryland soil 1 Peat Burned 1 Figure 10. Total CO -e emissions during - from major landscape categories Peat Landscapes in Indonesia . Because of the importance of peat ecosystems as a potential concentrated source of carbon emission it is useful to consider how significant it is for ndonesia to focus on reducing emissions from this source. The original area of tropical peat, both forested and non-forested, in ndonesia has been estimated at about million ha . From until , million ha were converted or destroyed leaving an area of about million ha. Nine million ha are in Sumatra and Kalimantan with about eight million remaining in Papua and West Papua. Of the million ha in , an estimated . million ha was under a forest cover: . million in Kalimantan, . in Papua, . in Sumatra, with small areas on the island of Bangka . Between - a further . million ha of peat swamp forest was deforested average annual rate of thousand ha , mostly for oil palm plantation. Almost of the loss of peat swamp forests in this period occurred in Sumatra. Of the area deforested, about , or thousand ha was estimated to have burned as well as drained, maximizing the loss of carbon to the atmosphere. The remaining was drained. ] Silvius et al., ] Primary analysis of data for this study. 36 As Figure shows, the total emissions from the destruction of the peat swamp forest is around M t CO -e to the total emissions for the period with of this coming from the above ground biomass Figure . . 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 Vegetation removval Drainage of peat soil Burning of peat soil Million t CO2-e Total emissions from peat swamp forest loss = 940 million t-CO2-e Figure 11. Emissions of CO -e from of peat swamp deforestation between - . n ndonesia experienced a particularly severe El Nino event and, as a result, widespread fires occurred throughout the country, particularly on peat swamp areas that had been deforested or degraded followed by drainage. The estimates of CO emissions given in the literature Table vary widely depending on assumptions about area of peat swamps burned no real measure of total peat swamp or peat land area burned ; the use of broad extrapolations based on studies in small areas, and crude estimates of carbon stocks of peat swamp vegetation and emissions factors for peat burning. 37 Table 8. Estimates of CO emissions from fires in peat swamps during the El Nino year. Study source Area included and notes Estimated emissions in million metric tons CO Page et al., Data from an area in Central Kalimantan extrapolated to all million ha of peat formations includes with and wo forest cover —assumes . to . million ha burned , - , Levine Kalimantan and Sumatra—assumes thousand ha of peat lands burned ADBBAPPENAS Assumed . million ha of peat land burned , - , This to analysis used the PCC method and accounting for methane emissions which are also a product of peat burning,. The estimated emissions from burning the thousand ha of peat exposed through deforestation over the whole period are . million t CO equivalent . When considering REL for peat swamp forests, it is important that the area burned be clearly identified. For deforestation it is clear that the emissions from burning be those associated with the lands being cleared. Fire in peat swamp forests is also an important cause of peat swamp forest degradation and higher resolution imagery, both temporally and spatially, is likely to be needed to better identify areas burning after deforestation and areas burning in peat swamps still meeting definition of a forest or more crown cover . Deforestation and emissions by forest function class. The proportion of total emissions by forest function class follows that for deforestation, with production forests accounting for the most and conservation and protection forests the least Figure . ] The estimate uses data from Page et al. to estimate the amount of peat biomass burned based on a density of peat of . tm and a conservative burning depth of cm range of to cm . 38 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 Production Forests on other lands Conversion Conservation Protection Landuse unknown M illio n t C O 2 -e Figure 12. Emissions from deforestation between - by forest function classes.

2.3.4 Discussion: comparison with other studies