Historical t rend an average of past emissions Modeling future proj ection Hybrid approach mixed modeling

46 ot her land uses. The mi xed approach consider count ry-specif ic circumst ances including proj ect ed development act ivit ies, popul at ion growt h, GDP, and ot her development t raj ect ories. Analyt ical works will need t o t ake int o account relevant COP decisions and SBSTA conclucions, and Minist erial Regulat ion on REDD PERMENHUT No. P. 30 Menhut -II 2009, since est ablishment of REL is a polit ical decision alt hough t his must be backed up wit h a st rong anal yt ical basis. 2. Est abl ishment of nat ional and sub-nat ional provincial and dist rict emissions ref erence level REL. Nat ional Ref erence Emission Level will be t he guidance f or t he est abl ishment of Provincial and Dist rict REL, 3. Pol icy dialogue, subj ect t o availabil it y of f unding, will be held at t he nat ional and sub- nat ional levels e. g. provincial, dist rict t o come up wit h t he most suit able REL f or REDDI. Policy dialogue will be set up in such away, depending on t arget groups, scopes f ocus t o be discussed at t he nat ional and sub-nat ional levels as well as bet ween nat ional and sub- nat ional levels. Management of readiness as in Component 2 see component 2 point c will be used f or bot h policy dial ogue and st akeholders communicat ions 4. Awareness raising, capacit y building, t echnology t ransf er and know how, shared learning, access t o dat a inf ormat ion, are int egral part of t he impl ement at ion under t his component . Subst ant ial resources wil l be needed f or t his purpose, and so, mobilizat ion of resources f rom int ernat ional sources will be crucial. Partners and organizations involved: Act ivit y 1 : Furt her analyt ical works f or REDDI will be carried out by expert s f rom Minist ry of Forest ry and ot her inst it ut ions including Minist ry of Agricult ure, Nat ional Aeronaut ical and Space Agency LAPAN, Nat ional Survey and Mapping Agency Bakosurt anal, CIFOR, ICRAF, Universit ies, and ot her scient if ic inst it ut ions, as well as int ernat ional expert s whenever needed. Act ivit y 2 t o 4 : Will invol ve all possible st akehol ders, depending on t he t ypes of act ivit ies and necessary t arget groups. Ref erring t o Component 2 see point 2 c, t he part ners st akeholders includes Minist ry of Environment , Minist ries relat ed t o l and use sect or, local government , Nat ional Council on Climat e Change DNPI, BAPPENAS, Minist ry of Finance, privat e sect or, scient if ic inst it ut ions, civil societ ies including NGOs, indigenous people and local communit ies, int ernat ional part ners bilat eral and mult ilat eral cooperat ions, int ernat ional organizat ions working in Indonesia. Table 11. Schedule and Sequencing of activities for REL establishment : Schedule Activit ies 2009 2010 2011 2012 Analytical Works : Analyze approaches t o est ablish REL t o det ermine t he most suit able approach f or REDDI :

1. Historical t rend an average of past emissions

a. Collect ion and analysis of def orest at ion and degradat ion dat a: 1. Anal ysis of dat a on hist oric land cover t rends 2. Development of basel ine f orest cover map 3. Gat her f orest invent ory dat a area change, biomass densit y 47 Schedule Activit ies 2009 2010 2011 2012 et c b. Devel op ref erence scenario of f orest cover change, e. g. since 1990 c. Develop ref erence scenario of f orest carbon st ocks change d. Devel op ref erence scenario of f orest carbon degradat ion change in carbon st ocks and change

2. Modeling future proj ection

a. Analyze development pl ans : 1. Economic t rend anal ysis f orecast populat ion growt h, drivers of def orest at ion and f orest degradat ion, pol icies and measures 2. Macroeconomic t rends gl obal agricult ural commodit y, wood demand, biof uel proj ect ions b. Ref erence scenario proj ect ion int o f ut ure : 1. Def orest at ion: f orest area change 2. Degradat ion: biomass and carbon densit y change. 3. Develop hist orical t rends ext rapol at ion met hods 4. Adapt modeling t ools f or REDD.

3. Hybrid approach mixed modeling

a. Predict unplanned def orest at ion f rom average of hist orical emissions, b. Predict pl anned def orest at ion f rom spat ial plans indicat ing f orest conversion t o ot her uses, c. Adapt modeling t ools, incorporat ing hist orical emissions and emission proj ect ions arising f rom model ing. Establishment of Nat ional Reference Emission Level : 1. Awareness raising, capacit y building, t echnol ogy t ransf er and know how, shared l earning, access t o dat a inf ormat ion, 2. Policy dialogue and st akeholders communicat ion t o reach consensus common underst anding on REL t o be est ablished, 3. Mobilizat ion of resources. Establishment of Provincial Reference Emission Level : 1. Awareness raising, capacit y building, t echnol ogy t ransf er and know how, shared l earning, access t o dat a inf ormat ion, 2. Policy dialogue and st akeholders communicat ion t o reach consensus common underst anding on REL t o be est ablished, , 3. Mobilizat ion of resources Establishment of District Reference Emission Level : 1. Awareness raising, capacit y building, t echnology t ransf er and know how, shared learning, access t o dat a inf ormat ion, 2. Pol icy dialogue and st akeholders communicat ion, t o reach consensus common underst anding on REL t o be est abl ished, 3. Mobil izat ion of resources Indicators of performance for this obj ective: 1. Result s of analyt ical works are able t o provide reliable basis f or est ablishing REL 48 2. REL at t he nat ional and sub-nat ional provincial and dist rict est ablished, f acilit at ed by a st rong analyt ical basis and st akehol ders consulat ion, and in line wit h nat ional development goals and sust ainable f orest management principles. 3. Improved awareness, capacit y, t echnology t ransf er and know how, shared learning, and access t o dat a inf ormat ion. 4. Policy dialogue and st akeholders communicat ion carried out , 5. Suf f icient resources t o carry out all act ivit ies under t he Component 7 availabl e. Attach your ToR for this component as a separate Annex 7. See Annex 7. Component 8: Design and Implement Monitoring, Reporting, and Verification System for REDD

8. 1. Obj ectives and activities: Background