Ace Hardware Indonesia Tbk

Ace Hardware Indonesia Tbk (ACES)

  3Q18: Ditopang Gencarnya Ekspansi Organik

Company Report | Nov 7, 2018 Konsistensi Angka Pertumbuhan Sejak 2Q17

  ACES mampu

  melanjutkan pertumbuhan top line di atas 20% yang dicapai sejak

  2Q17. Pada 3Q18, ACES mencatatkan penjualan dan laba bersih, yang masing- Buy masing sebesar Rp1,78 triliun (+21,6% y-y) dan Rp273 miliar (36,8% y-y).

Dec 2019 TP (IDR) 1,635

  Adapun kenaikan beban umum dan administrasi 3Q18, hanya sebesar 6,3% y-y Consensus Price (IDR) 1,603 (vs. +32,4% y-y pada 1H18) mengerek kinerja margin EBIT hingga bottom line. TP to Consensus Price +2.0%

  vs. Last Price +18.5%

  Konsistensi ini membuat angka pertumbuhan penjualan ACES mencapai 22,2% y-y hingga September 2018. Kinerja 4Q18 pun akan terdongkrak program Ace

  Shares data

  Boom Sale, diadakan pada awal 4Q18. Kami memproyeksikan bahwa

  Last Price (IDR) 1,380

  pertumbuhan ini akan terus berlanjut dengan mencatatkan angka pertumbuhan

  Price date as of Nov 6, 2018

  FY18, melebihi pertumbuhan FY17.  

  52 wk range (Hi/Lo) 1,560 / 1,115 Free float (%)

  40.0 Outstanding sh.(mn) 17,150

Besarnya Dampak Penambahan Gerai Baru

  Pencapaian ini sangat berkolerasi pada gencarnya penambahan gerai pada Market Cap (IDR bn) 23,667 2018. Hingga kini pun

  Market Cap (USD mn) 1,598 ACES telah membuka 25 gerai baru, jauh melebihi target

  FY18: 15 gerai. SSSG di luar Pulau Jawa pun berada di kisaran 15%-16%, Avg. Trd Vol - 3M (mn)

  15.0 Avg. Trd Val - 3M (bn)

  20.3

  didorong oleh ekspansi serta penguatan harga komoditas. Selain itu, banyaknya

  Foreign Ownership 26.8%

  gerai baru ini turut

  mendorong pertumbuhan segmen produk home improvement hingga 21,6% y-y pada 3Q18. Hal ini sekaligus mengimbangi perlambatan

  pada pertumbuhan segmen produk gaya hidup, yang tercatat sebesar 19,0% y-y, Trade, Services & Investment

  Home Improvement Retail terendah sejak 2Q17.

  Bloomberg ACES IJ

  Reuters

Target Harga Rp1.635

  Kami menggunakan estimasi forward P/E sebesar 24,3x (2SD di atas rata-rata 4 tahun terakhir). Target harga ini mengimplikasikan P/E 2018E sebesar 28,0x.

  Share Price Performance Saat ini, ACES diperdagangkan pada P/E 2018E sebesar 23,6x.

Ace Hardware Indonesia Tbk | Summary (IDR bn) 2017 2018E 2019F 2020F

  Net Sales 5,939 7,190 8,411 9,495

  Net Sales growth 20.3% 21.1% 17.0% 12.9%

  EBITDA 1,044 1,362 1,541 1,728 Net Profit 778 1,002 1,153 1,287 EPS (IDR)

  45

  58

  67

  75 EPS growth 9.4% 28.9% 15.0% 11.6%    YTD

  1M

  3M

  12M

  BVPS (IDR) 205 241 279 322

  Abs. Ret. 19.5% 4.2% 0.0% 13.6%

  EBITDA margin 17.6% 18.9% 18.3% 18.2%

  Rel. Ret. 26.3% 1.3% 2.7% 15.8%

  NPM 13.1% 13.9% 13.7% 13.6% ROE 23.7% 26.2% 25.8% 24.9% ROA 32.4% 87.2% 88.5% 89.5% ROIC 22.4% 24.7% 24.4% 23.7% P/E 25.5x 23.6x 20.5x 18.4x P/BV 5.6x 5.7x 4.9x 4.3x EV/EBITDA 18.1x 16.8x 14.7x 13.1x Michael Tjahjadi

• 62 21 797 6202, ext:114

  DPS (IDR)

  23

  29

  32

  35 Dividend yield 2.0% 2.1% 2.3% 2.6% michael@nhsec.co.id

  Source: Company Data, Bloomberg, NHKS Research Please consider the rating criteria & important disclaimer

  Source: Company, NHKS Research ACES Quarterly Net Profit | 3Q16 - 3Q18

  Source: Company, NHKS Research ACES Quarterly Net Sales (IDR bn) | 3Q16 - 3Q18

Net Sales Breakdown on Third Quarter

  Margin Ratios | 3Q17 - 3Q18 Source: Company, NHKS Research

  Source: Company, NHKS Research Performance Highlights

  Store Expansion | 1Q16 - 3Q18 Source: Company, NHKS Research

  ACES Space/Store (m²) | 1Q17 - 3Q18 Source: Company, NHKS Research

  3Q18 review (IDR bn)

  3Q18

  3Q17

  4Q17

  1Q18

  2Q18

  4Q18E Actual Estimate y-y q-q surprise

  Revenue 1,463 1,716 1,574 1,811 1,779 1,723 21.6% -1.8% 3.2% 2,027          

  Gross Profit 711 801 752 869 857 836 20.6% -1.3% 2.6% 945

  Gross Margin 48.6% 46.7% 47.8% 48.0% 48.2% 48.5% -0.4% 0.2% -0.3% 46.6%

            EBIT 247 313 264 276 345 304 39.6% 24.9% 13.5% 386

  EBIT Margin 16.9% 18.2% 16.8% 15.3% 19.4% 17.6% 2.5% 4.2% 1.8% 19.0%

            EBITDA 266 336 286 298 369 326 38.5% 23.6% 13.2% 408

  EBITDA Margin 18.2% 19.6% 18.2% 16.5% 20.7% 18.9% 2.5% 4.3% 1.8% 20.1%

           

Net Profit 199 252 210 219 273 243 36.8% 24.7% 12.2% 306

  Net Margin 13.6% 14.7% 13.3% 12.1% 15.3% 14.1% 1.7% 3.2% 1.2% 15.1% Source: Bloomberg, NHKS research

Earnings revision (IDR bn) 2018E 2019F 2020F

  Revenue -Revised 7,190 8,411 9,495

• Previous 7,025 7,798 8,414

  2.4% 7.9% 12.8%

• Change Gross Profit -Revised 3,423 3,994 4,508
• Previous 3,350 3,714 4,016

  2.2% 7.5% 12.2%

• Change

  47.6% 47.5% 47.5%

  Gross Margin -Revised

• Previous 47.7% 47.6% 47.7% EBIT -Revised 1,271 1,446 1,618
• Previous 1,191 1,304 1,366

  6.7% 10.9% 18.5%

• Change EBIT Margin -Revised 17.7% 17.2% 17.0%

  17.0% 16.7% 16.2%

• Previous EBITDA -Revised 1,362 1,541 1,728
• Previous 1,280 1,399 1,468

  6.4% 10.2% 17.7%

• Change EBITDA Margin -Revised 18.9% 18.3% 18.2%
• Previous 18.2% 17.9% 17.4%
• Revised

  Net Profit 1,002 1,153 1,287

• Previous 942 1,053 1,096
• Change 6.4% 9.5% 17.4%

  13.9% 13.7% 13.6%

  Net Margin -Revised

• Previous 13.4% 13.5% 13.0%

  Source: NHKS research

Sekilas tentang ACES

  ACES adalah salah satu perusahaan yang bergerak di bidang ritel home improvement di Indonesia. Produk-produk yang ditawarkan dibagi menjadi segmen perlengkapan hunian dan segmen perlengkapan gaya hidup, yang sebagian besarnya merupakan produk impor. Hingga kini, ACES memiliki 169 gerai di kota-kota besar Indonesia dengan menyasar segmen menengah-atas. Pada 2018, ACES juga menghadirkan konsep gerai baru bernama Ace Xpress, yang memiliki luas gerai lebih kecil dibandingkan gerai ACES pada umumnya. Untuk menjangkau pasar yang lebih luas, ACES gencar melakukan strategi pemasaran berupa diskon besar yang tersebar di sepanjang tahun, seperti: Ace Boom Sale, Siap Sedia di Hari Raya, Clearance Sale Akhir Tahun dan program member Ace Reward. Selain itu, pada 2016, ACES memasuki segmen e-dagang melalui ruparupa.com, milik entitas induk ACES.

Industri Ritel, Khususnya Home Improvement Indonesia di ASEAN

  Potensi bisnis ritel perlengkapan hunian sangat bergantung pada kondisi industri properti suatu negara. Indonesia dengan jumlah proyek properti baru yang terus meningkat, memungkinkan bisnis ritel seperti ACES untuk terus berekspansi, terutama ke luar Pulau Jawa. Belum lagi, perkembangan zaman digital pun memungkinkan masyarakat untuk melakukan dekorasi atau perbaikan pada propertinya sendiri (DIY).

  Peritel perlengkapan hunian lain di ASEAN juga masih mencatatkan pertumbuhan penjualan, di tengah kondisi ritel secara kesesluruhan yang sedang dalam tren menurun, khususnya segmen menengah-bawah. Hampir semua peritel perlengkapan hunian juga masih menghasilkan margin dua digit, baik gross, operating, dan EBITDA margin.

ASEAN Home Improvement Retailers Market Revenue Net Profit Net Profit Asset Net ROE P/E Company Cap LTM LTM Growth P/BV (USD mn) Margin LTM LTM (USD mn) (USD mn) (USD mn) LTM Indonesia

  LPPF 922 399 737 136 -0.86% 18.5% 85.6% 7.2x 5.5x RALS 556 360 411 41 36.52% 9.9% 15.7% 13.8x 2.1x MAPI 908 841 1,326 46 91.23% 3.5% 14.0% 23.2x 2.6x ACES 1,598 326 495 68 24.68% 13.8% 26.6% 24.8x 6.2x

                                   

Thailand

  Home Product Center Pcl 5,875 1,564 2,038 169 16.50% 8.3% 30.86% 36.2x 10.6x Siam Global House 2,395 865 713 57 12.30% 7.9% 13.86% 42.9x 5.7x

                                   

Philippines

  Wilcon Depot Inc 881 321 352 27 56.23% 7.8% 17.88% 30.8x 3.9x

  Source: Bloomberg

  Multiple Valuation Forward P/E band | Last 4 years Dynamic Forward P/E band | Last 4 years Source: NHKS research Source: NHKS research Rating and Target Price Update

Target Price Revision Date Rating Target Price Last Price Consensus vs Last Price vs Consensus

  04/04/2018 Buy 1,575 (Dec 2018) 1,360 1,440 +15.8% +9.4% 05/18/2018 Buy 1,425 (Dec 2018) 1,180 1,490 +20.8% -4.4% 08/08/2018 Buy 1,635 (Dec 2018) 1,395 1,537 +17.2% +6.4% 11/06/2018 Buy 1,635 (Dec 2019) 1,380 1,603 +18.5% +2.0%

  Source: NHKS research, Bloomberg

Analyst Coverage Rating Closing and Target Price

  Source: Bloomberg Source: NHKS research

NH Korindo Sekuritas Indonesia (NHKS) stock ratings

  1. Period: End of year target price

  2. Rating system based on a stock’s absolute return from the date of publication 

  Buy : Greater than +15%  Hold : -15% to +15% 

  Sell : Less than -15% Summary of Financials

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