Pemodelan Fungsi Transfer Multi Input untuk Meramalkan Pendapatan Pajak Kendaraan Bermotor (PKB) dan Bea Balik Nama kendaraan Bermotor (BBNKB)
74
Lampiran 1. Data Realisasi PKB dan Jumlah Kendaraan Per Jenisnya Periode
Januari 2011 sampai dengan Desember 2014
PKB
(Rupiah)
t
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
Jenis Kendaraan
(Unit)
Periode
Jan-11
Feb-11
Mar-11
Apr-11
Mei-11
Jun-11
Jul-11
Agust-11
Sep-11
Okt-11
Nov-11
Des-11
Jan-12
Feb-12
Mar-12
Apr-12
Mei-12
Jun-12
Jul-12
Agust-12
Sep-12
Okt-12
Nov-12
Des-12
Jan-13
Feb-13
Mar-13
Apr-13
Mei-13
Jun-13
944.267.692
966.596.388
1.147.945.143
1.205.528.452
1.285.125.326
1.252.037.930
1.300.166.881
1.235.232.821
1.436.516.318
1.497.357.422
1.450.570.647
1.676.423.112
1.221.119.662
1.402.299.746
1.685.450.220
1.540.185.036
1.467.303.361
1.337.314.601
1.624.912.588
1.416.527.078
1.504.292.518
1.720.456.312
1.685.466.777
1.563.353.454
1.522.619.887
1.630.409.678
1.642.950.630
1.858.618.918
1.440.404.024
1.495.525.430
Sedan
Jeep
13
15
11
21
10
27
13
12
16
16
18
20
18
18
17
16
13
14
22
9
14
11
18
16
22
14
11
13
14
19
115
87
135
146
131
113
101
98
116
144
113
180
116
114
135
132
110
113
141
106
96
149
128
158
128
123
127
130
164
125
Mopen/
Bus/
Minibus Microbus
537
531
618
576
466
504
526
597
658
635
715
811
520
607
650
565
579
570
665
568
645
706
753
750
614
603
664
670
602
589
16
11
14
33
97
38
33
22
20
26
23
27
22
15
29
37
14
16
29
43
37
27
42
39
24
40
32
35
14
15
Pick
up/
Truck
Sepeda
motor/
Betor
545
553
610
664
582
465
592
560
662
561
645
715
517
629
683
579
588
536
674
576
590
665
600
603
629
606
642
677
533
531
1.026
1.065
1.213
1.152
1.073
1071
1.228
1.211
1.282
1.250
1.341
1.361
1.135
1.168
1.358
1.252
1.206
1.023
1.302
1.329
1.309
1.469
1.342
1.139
1.315
1.306
1.392
1.444
1.207
1.196
Universitas Sumatera Utara
75
Lampiran 2 (Lanjutan)
t
Periode
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
Jul-13
Agust-13
Sep-13
Okt-13
Nov-13
Des-13
Jan-14
Feb-14
Mar-14
Apr-14
Mei-14
Jun-14
Jul-14
Agust-14
Sep-14
Okt-14
Nov-14
Des-14
1.716.895.408
1.362.782.891
1.615.646.579
1.936.167.371
1.733.916.380
1.855.151.393
1.651.688.086
1.680.656.120
1.885.529.922
1.699.042.274
1.572.846.020
1.521.526.716
1.574.645.986
1.706.818.236
1.776.395.113
1.926.923.439
1.804.849.260
4.247.217.206
22
9
7
16
16
18
21
14
10
19
14
18
20
14
16
15
15
145
161
121
108
196
135
183
154
129
147
141
133
144
126
182
124
150
136
507
711
533
723
728
758
827
637
645
799
675
651
609
620
713
688
568
625
1.063
29
19
30
51
48
35
19
37
27
24
27
28
33
38
56
50
45
105
642
475
570
685
575
662
570
614
637
545
559
475
489
527
516
573
525
1.521
1.570
1.415
1.472
1.480
1.375
1.332
1.351
1.479
1.729
1.430
1.332
1.269
1.353
1.538
1.596
1.663
1.539
2.730
Lampiran 2. Data Realisasi BBNKB dan Jumlah Kendaraan Per Jenisnya
Periode Januari 2011 sampai dengan Desember 2014
BBNKB
(Rupiah)
t
Jenis Kendaraan
(Unit)
Periode
Jeep
Sedan
Mopen/
Minibus
Bus/
Microbus
Pick
up/
Truck
Sepeda
motor/
Betor
Universitas Sumatera Utara
76
1
2
3
4
5
6
Jan-11
Feb-11
Mar-11
Apr-11
Mei-11
Jun-11
45.743.286
39.408.250
60.730.481
67.805.554
48.451.614
55.343.889
3
1
2
5
1
7
17
16
29
29
18
15
48
71
93
88
50
40
4
6
4
3
3
6
45
46
60
66
44
59
56
58
102
81
52
50
1
4
2
3
8
4
4
2
5
10
3
3
2
2
3
1
2
6
6
4
1
4
6
2
4
1
1
2
4
14
15
10
21
25
25
17
16
19
23
22
18
27
15
14
22
26
16
17
17
23
22
33
21
25
12
20
15
16
66
48
90
75
92
82
67
79
109
91
70
94
99
71
108
112
106
104
74
91
84
66
82
75
98
80
74
74
92
10
5
5
1
4
4
1
2
1
5
7
1
5
8
2
3
11
7
6
13
3
2
3
5
3
7
4
4
1
41
35
52
64
67
49
35
63
68
47
44
54
76
36
48
55
56
51
60
47
47
55
40
46
67
35
39
51
44
58
58
69
52
62
62
84
59
87
83
88
67
87
102
106
149
98
67
103
92
81
122
102
83
117
72
98
112
118
Lampiran 4 (Lanjutan)
T
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
32
32
33
34
35
Periode
Jul-11
Agt-11
Sep-11
Okt-11
Nov-11
Des-11
Jan-12
Feb-12
Mar-12
Apr-12
Mei-12
Jun-12
Jul-12
Agt-12
Sep-12
Okt-12
Nov-12
Des-12
Jan-13
Feb-13
Mar-13
Apr-13
Mei-13
Jun-13
Jul-13
Agt-13
Sep-13
Okt-13
Nov-13
60.988.602
45.390.107
58.709.015
69.547.478
82.923.205
62.244.251
50.345.906
72.342.223
81.280.599
82.242.551
61.749.112
99.611.673
106.398.930
62.081.885
63.865.747
94.503.214
97.699.809
78.622.950
78.967.502
84.796.712
69.989.097
65.164.061
87.738.933
71.965.158
101.272.270
60.752.579
61.140.314
74.242.455
78.622.975
Universitas Sumatera Utara
77
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
Des-13
Jan-14
Feb-14
Mar-14
Apr-14
Mei-14
Jun-14
Jul-14
71.609.401
75.872.406
62.538.671
73.472.762
68.567.644
82.030.479
61.254.119
68.639.728
4
7
1
1
1
5
3
1
13
19
18
27
24
24
22
13
70
88
52
80
72
78
56
87
2
1
1
2
7
3
2
2
48
50
57
60
47
43
36
27
62
105
95
100
80
79
84
84
3
1
4
5
6
23
18
20
20
17
75
97
64
90
68
2
8
3
3
2
55
50
40
53
29
129
103
96
70
42
Lampiran 5 (Lanjutan)
t
44
45
46
47
48
Periode
Agt-14
Sep-14
Okt-14
Nov-14
Des-14
77.841.636
72.642.224
62.737.171
82.871.454
46.736.492
Lampiran 3. Tabel Deret Input berdasarkan jumlah kendaraan per jenisnya (
dan Deret Output Data PKB (
yang Diputihkan
0
0
0
0
0
0
)
0
Universitas Sumatera Utara
0
0
78
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
2,0356 17,85216
-53
-5,7
-137
-5,7
-7,51006 2,543614 -30,4865 -35,1569
-82,3234 -33,9467
-4,8428 -22,4806 -18,0142 -23,8062 116,930908 -15,6064
-17,0036 -39,6095 13,21937
-13,973 -99,882622 -3,93182
-2,78342 -20,4826 29,84649 22,17517 59,2513895 31,24867
-4,1856 -23,3617
-47,511 -20,1053
-204,9633 -19,2946
-8,9879 -41,7201 -34,9827 -13,4964
59,341318 -8,73495
-11,5399 -31,8116 24,29667 15,81622
104,09139 21,5774
-8,03031 -23,2591 4,935414 -1,38279 -53,691617 -1,23662
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
13
-5,7
-9,3055 -36,0461
-85,0868
-30,159
64,91272 -23,8902
20,38727 10,31119
26,90817 -28,2311
-2,72417 -24,5677
-14,6602 2,899648
19,68436 -11,5285
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Lanjutan (lampiran 3)
-9,64982
-3,61529
-9,70803
-13,6314
-20,8982
-12,9207
-18,7985
-8,10912
-11,8984
-23,5783
-17,4813
-15,3206
-16,2928
-11,5472
-16,0487
-22,2994
-57,5784
-33,1178
-5,20535
-18,5482
-10,4608
-51,8634
-66,7041
-45,9857
-66,6351
-75,0944
-47,2407
-50,7225
-67,7983
-48,7069
-52,3713
-66,7691
-42,9505
35,75912
-33,6596
-18,8277
1,961843
48,59969
-70,164
-15,7395
5,045721
4,420014
18,83662
-53,0946
34,64592
-19,103
-35,584
23,8136
-37,1146
45,80749
-27,105
-39,5186
43,85137
-36,8171
20,44073
-22,8236
-10,2077
21,41454
-0,07207
-21,0443
39,26453
-41,1853
-13,4658
25,95228
-98,655241
193,997882
-47,757888
-144,37085
-13,117849
101,001224
-149,30456
142,812969
-428,06965
244,332038
94,4207453
-101,1278
-83,94693
251,822477
-135,56644
13,8517167
-36,7321
53,91953
-1,09815
-30,0223
-6,55507
-66,1068
22,22193
45,18652
-45,1371
8,69311
44,61091
-24,2745
-34,456
67,19888
-21,943
-26,761
-5,77822
-8,64243
26,56066
-32,0165
7,477375
90,56016
-60,5235
-15,5347
-47,5926
22,93829
48,49324
-35,2704
-1,8645
10,34382
-19,6643
21,25735
-47,2376
30,13251
-35,2656
-48,8403
45,718
-30,5496
18,00673
-40,9587
-10,209
18,44813
-14,6887
-27,5087
50,15004
-67,0807
-9,2786
37,96194
Universitas Sumatera Utara
0
0
105,3112
-61,148
5,208636
-70,0297
38,03731
52,85432
-132,289
-71,1963
183,3013
-32,535
-80,2494
75,111
52,15698
-111,283
79
-13,8953
-11,2988
-9,49405
-13,9862
-9,85609
-9,29624
-9,05157
-15,0831
-18,7985
-8,10912
-11,8984
-23,5783
-17,4813
-15,3206
-16,2928
-11,5472
-16,0487
-22,2994
-13,8953
-11,2988
-9,49405
-13,9862
-9,85609
-9,29624
-9,05157
-15,0831
-15,0831
-75,649 -16,5372
-82,7103 -69,7845
-77,7837 70,01901
-97,8075 -72,7063
-74,8637 113,5817
-60,8451 -49,6466
-69,1069 -87,0654
-80,8766 73,48937
-66,7041
-45,9857
-66,6351
-75,0944
-47,2407
-50,7225
-67,7983
-48,7069
-52,3713
-66,7691
-75,649
-82,7103
-77,7837
-97,8075
-74,8637
-60,8451
-69,1069
-80,8766
-80,8766
-70,164
-15,7395
5,045721
4,420014
18,83662
-53,0946
34,64592
-19,103
-35,584
23,8136
-16,5372
-69,7845
70,01901
-72,7063
113,5817
-49,6466
-87,0654
73,48937
73,48937
-57,8586
51,08261
-22,0967
-21,7596
60,41209
-31,4916
-28,4852
16,84635
20,44073
-22,8236
-10,2077
21,41454
-0,07207
-21,0443
39,26453
-41,1853
-13,4658
25,95228
-57,8586
51,08261
-22,0967
-21,7596
60,41209
-31,4916
-28,4852
16,84635
16,84635
-90,048004 -7,68807
38,6915226 -48,1296
-134,40156 27,4895
40,6262566 10,71501
-80,967564 10,03173
25,4307326 -4,57948
-93,741583 22,34513
12,6127279 -25,4418
-149,30456
142,812969
-428,06965
244,332038
94,4207453
-101,1278
-83,94693
251,822477
-135,56644
13,8517167
-90,048004
38,6915226
-134,40156
40,6262566
-80,967564
25,4307326
-93,741583
12,6127279
12,6127279
22,22193
45,18652
-45,1371
8,69311
44,61091
-24,2745
-34,456
67,19888
-21,943
-26,761
-7,68807
-48,1296
27,4895
10,71501
10,03173
-4,57948
22,34513
-25,4418
-25,4418
0,274799
-84,924 47,60838
23,38584 56,27334 -91,6923
1,789274 -37,1176 -9,92266
-9,22927 -17,7403 -102,351
39,96411 56,24212 -29,1394
-9,41104 -42,7772 41,10003
-57,5894 -34,7499 29,67335
17,03547 18,00162 54,42561
-60,5235
-15,5347
-47,5926
22,93829
48,49324
-35,2704
-1,8645
10,34382
-19,6643
21,25735
0,274799
23,38584
1,789274
-9,22927
39,96411
-9,41104
-57,5894
17,03547
17,03547
Lampiran 4. Tabel Deret Input berdasarkan jumlah kendaraan per jenisnya (
yang Diputihkan
dan Deret Output Data BBNKB (
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
18,00673
-40,9587
-10,209
18,44813
-14,6887
-27,5087
50,15004
-67,0807
-9,2786
37,96194
-84,924
56,27334
-37,1176
-17,7403
56,24212
-42,7772
-34,7499
18,00162
18,00162
38,03731
52,85432
-132,289
-71,1963
183,3013
-32,535
-80,2494
75,111
52,15698
-111,283
47,60838
-91,6923
-9,92266
-102,351
-29,1394
41,10003
29,67335
54,42561
54,42561
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
)
Universitas Sumatera Utara
80
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1,8667
2,01064
5,60092
0,764505
-3,02675
0,542695
-1,6729
0,929966
-2,05796
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
36,92306
12,38139
19,93697
5,986716
49,84013
34,22117
22,0228
-2,27377
31,68589
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0 28,33135
-10 -12,3839
4 -6,11312
10
-1,1395
-1 30,97029
10 1,142544
-13 -28,7186
4
-11,535
-3
19,799
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
-8,9499
0,878994
-10,4894
7,966062
43,26452
23,42288
14,45625
10,37812
30,20052
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
28,82798
16,88716
11,16927
10,38236
41,66719
43,09034
14,62211
3,310385
23,30861
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
-1
0
5
7
-2
-2
6
0
5
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
28,33135
15,9475
9,834377
8,694878
39,66516
40,80771
12,08916
0,554112
20,35312
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
9,356
12,58563
-24,1968
7,224449
-11,4933
41,50821
-9,55358
5,351157
-16,8672
36
1
18
7,7
4
36
1
1,2
27
-5,68717
2,454549
0,292842
0,162248
-6,41166
-13,4187
8,445961
-1,66406
2,565314
0,991094
-5,08216
7,711237
5,689366
-8,86289
5,971603
-11,7067
16,28283
-4,39054
-13,5302
19,60412
-25,9539
25,65319
-16,3131
4,900462
0 -10,1791
24,31305
-10 1,602095
14,03993
9 7,640277
-41,5766
1 -66,6536
10,16957
20,82 -1,67796
-74,998
-12,128 5,106594
70,42405
-5,82 45,0989
-164,164
-6,218 -108,825
61,97294
-22,82 20,48384
-114,353
22,166 54,97381
108,5005
1,872 19,15932
-185,631
-7,654 -52,8172
131,6729
-3 19,32314
-198,374
24,82 9,208352
152,9252
-11,038 -14,2991
-172,208
-2,782 49,12726
116,9189 -16,2812 50,79986
-18,5283 12,4841 1,71355
-105,299 -18,4488 -87,4477
271,4641 22,86248 133,7352
-453,244 9,84524 -60,4597
578,4691 6,666188 2,934726
-713,211 -23,4639 -19,1736
7,934187
16,58869
-10,0672
2,539849
-39,1491
-30,3599
-3,94153
-56,5144
-24,6919
-7,98736
-47,5321
-63,563
-24,56
-49,5473
8,264069
-47,8246
11,12887
21,2342
-12,5072
-7,45322
-10,974
-11,3493
44,41078
13,3072
15,06785
24,48718
-9,80481
-25,4606
-27,2091
16,68291
-56,8246
-34,9694
-12,608
-6,51651
-36,7557
-28,9693
-17,8978
-21,8302
-30,5463
10,52119
14,1946
-22,6393
6,930966
-29,4797
17,81179
13,13844
10
6
6,9155
12,554
3,9155
0,723
0,446
5,1925
-0,8075
3,0845
3,9155
4,723
-4,4695
-0,9155
-0,1925
-5,0235
2,723
6,9155
1,554
1,446
1,277
-2,3615
7,723
10,17398
11,77608
25,68282
19,7575
-8,46525
-16,4621
26,19425
-16,2463
6,686554
0,102152
-5,46389
-15,8419
-18,3377
-5,69527
2,648991
-22,3584
-5,20083
-7,37291
-0,91575
-25,3079
-39,0884
12,00589
5,914046
-2,71934
-3,96425
40,09187
-42,2806
-16,2234
19,41401
-0,81051
-5,32911
-41,5034
1,669651
-8,02948
8,394898
-4,72333
-1,51907
-37,4567
32,91205
24,29305
-11,845
5,415881
-1,51699
-31,1653
25,315
13,29928
8,8
19
1
-1
-3
-2
14
-7
-3
-2
-1
-2
-2
-2
-3
21
12
-2
17
-2
24
6,4
Universitas Sumatera Utara
81
9,289554 952,4504 25,98543 35,83114
-7,87242 -1155,54
4,346 -0,54086
21,95381 1400,618 -26,4092 -48,3856
14,04066 1,440368
6,627226 16,44292
19,55348 -20,4394
2,3615
1,385
1,1925
-23,4322 -3,66539 13
-7,25042 18,94366 17
-32,0109 -16,9742 -1
Lampiran 5. Tabel Hasil Korelasi Silang antara Masing-masing Deret Input dan
Deret Output PKB
lag
-15
-14
-13
-12
-11
-10
-9
-8
-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
ccf (a1;b1) ccf(a2;b2)
0,220413 -0,26463
0,10877 0,413709
-0,11821 -0,29357
0,028374 0,120734
0,00305 0,146512
0,111681 -0,43902
0,241015 0,333299
-0,124
0,04615
-0,17759 -0,32074
0,044985 0,440697
-0,01325 -0,34015
0,250178 -0,11445
0,299317 0,578701
-0,1433
-0,5076
-0,31798 0,066544
-0,00925 0,196828
0,009087 -0,33723
0,17461
0,36667
0,075371
-0,0187
-0,26978 -0,16802
-0,20547 0,060733
0,021809 -0,05879
0,13164 0,055872
0,144758 0,085047
-0,16524 -0,14987
-0,1668 0,068377
-0,105 -0,03181
-0,08695 0,011008
0,081515 0,095547
0,121955 -0,07388
0,018576 -0,13552
ccf(a3;b3) ccf(a4;b4) ccf(a5;b5)
-0,03289 -0,33986
0,130202 0,087058 -0,03527
-0,23243 0,133205
-0,0869
0,221905 -0,17543 0,131411
-0,0189 0,164098 -0,12069
-0,19755 -0,24895
-0,1337
0,195025 -0,09496 -0,08528
0,08013 0,339599 0,271676
-0,33193 -0,28262 0,271457
0,357723 0,203211 0,007287
-0,22213 0,234822 0,019941
-0,05217 -0,33905 -0,09118
0,239766 0,560441 -0,17779
-0,06082 0,074741 -0,33341
-0,38092 -0,51846 0,132174
0,535563 0,381565
0,31612
-0,16895 -0,40789 -0,09731
-0,28314 -0,10305 -0,29687
0,411694 0,438335 -0,09937
-0,04268 -0,40807 0,224794
-0,23388 -0,04604 0,055202
0,209411 -0,02231
0,19428
-0,29972 -0,30869 0,340616
0,223632 0,285438 -0,13868
0,213985 -0,07671 -0,47749
-0,31583 -0,19891 -0,21808
-0,05038 0,305634 0,169997
0,209202 -0,08316 0,251678
-0,11417
0,17951
-0,019
-0,0979 0,288172 0,038423
0,224692 -0,29956
ccf(a6;b6)
-0,11376
0,180789
0,1348
-0,27817
0,096127
-0,18826
-0,05881
0,357817
-0,28689
0,157354
0,233772
-0,3918
0,420349
-0,03823
-0,61601
0,342796
-0,16281
0,045806
0,559822
-0,29178
0,025374
-0,04146
-0,34914
0,283684
-0,22356
-0,09375
0,406947
-0,10826
0,150514
0,101396
-0,46545
Universitas Sumatera Utara
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Lampiran 6. Tabel Hasil Korelasi Silang antara Masing-masing Deret Input dan
Deret Output BBNKB
Lag
-15
-14
-13
-12
-11
-10
-9
-8
-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
ccf (a1;b1)
ccf(a2;b2)
0,078894 0,196229
-0,104715 0,127233
0,099883 -0,03264
-0,114409 -0,26938
0,113134
0,34129
-0,113423
-0,2184
0,104491 -0,02239
-0,105221 0,089549
0,077841
0,25921
-0,028395 -0,57427
-0,040171 0,154435
0,113934 0,446625
-0,232374 -0,11793
0,377952 -0,22187
-0,528683 0,003003
0,689358 0,379895
-0,60138 -0,40795
0,637055 0,206996
-0,62783 -0,09315
0,558749 0,084617
-0,353298 -0,28393
0,116596 0,410306
0,113908 -0,13715
-0,283888
-0,106
0,305519 -0,18688
-0,183301 0,326086
0,109352 -0,16867
-0,073383 0,037953
0,001852 0,005385
0,049397 -0,06399
0,033886 0,148976
ccf(a3;b3) ccf(a4;b4)
-0,39871 -0,06512
-0,3729 0,032634
-0,34886 -0,17815
-0,36646 -0,04239
-0,35956 0,091088
-0,26537 0,020048
-0,31934 0,092406
0,021769
0,40697
0,032872 0,210895
0,236454
0,13325
0,109683 0,221923
0,385176
0,23981
0,457337 0,150004
0,284541 0,108477
0,454298
0,40546
0,711775 0,119662
0,459033 0,004387
0,355846 0,166585
0,320705 0,076326
0,247525 -0,00483
0,291759 0,109602
-0,03358 0,055134
0,225407
0,02094
-0,06454 -0,06938
-0,20889 0,001794
-0,08877 -0,05772
-0,19109 -0,03977
-0,305 -0,05498
-0,20801 -0,04486
-0,16253 -0,06013
-0,14045 -0,06835
ccf(a5;b5) ccf(a6;b6)
-0,0788 0,278951
-0,04486 -0,28535
-0,12494 0,170862
-0,19353 -0,06878
-0,10643 -0,10227
0,008736 0,201838
-0,06369 -0,26911
-0,34853 0,379076
0,008838 -0,41419
-0,01018 0,505647
0,26779 -0,46584
-0,24339 0,597719
0,148878 -0,51506
-0,11889 0,585012
0,152564
-0,4054
0,278106 0,296191
0,279751 -0,07494
-0,19357 -0,03503
0,056087 0,198523
0,266984 -0,25809
0,080508 0,271029
0,11878
-0,3306
-0,02242 0,335063
0,155718 -0,39611
-0,18274 0,357571
0,130919 -0,40613
-0,10075 0,255676
0,107705 -0,21429
-0,2933 0,075583
0,146849 -0,07133
-0,07688
-0,0055
Lampiran 7. Tabel Hasil Perhitungan Deret Gangguan
Universitas Sumatera Utara
83
t
n1t
-26,17181
1,06877
-9,52070
-20,76828
27,55523
0,72052
-9,70271
6,35843
-18,22136
-8,40858
26,03164
-58,43698
27,88608
-17,51859
-11,97653
43,47030
-34,28650
-10,02714
0,55936
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
n2t
-38,57543
25,76649
-12,56305
-7,13153
15,53184
-8,66345
18,07000
-6,83880
-6,06981
8,93012
-8,82393
-17,80267
31,32179
-34,86142
21,54990
-2,03690
14,97531
0,86369
-43,00373
n3t
6,07387
9,66946
-41,47056
30,68785
8,61271
-30,83736
37,81532
-4,13060
-28,33889
23,48570
-11,36469
-24,46330
43,65330
-42,93289
24,87498
12,82967
-19,27409
41,46789
-34,18318
n4t
11,48542
-3,55806
-17,15657
54,18683
-46,73493
30,26890
-10,12183
-9,67867
24,41031
-34,50037
24,67580
-24,89276
-8,43831
29,39920
-28,54451
29,39434
7,72239
-28,02505
20,11145
n5t
-13,87619
-19,66428
36,30961
-14,81319
0,21633
-0,03443
-10,11711
19,14755
-9,61362
-0,17317
2,20109
4,07309
-11,62116
9,69253
-20,58417
27,44465
-6,77483
-10,21390
22,59297
n6t
71,57679
-25,25398
-65,62932
112,49969
-83,77579
27,99253
47,75763
-87,77621
78,65493
-26,09324
-72,28557
101,70457
-52,84696
-26,71371
106,67957
-105,75162
37,18949
44,29465
-105,45867
Lampiran 8. Tabel Hasil Perhitungan Deret Gangguan
t
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
n21t
-129,366
30,3658
42,65285
-235,386
295,1605
-209,707
119,3007
-143,995
54,52779
10,08465
61,67996
-91,5217
175,9127
-159,178
n22t
0,223863
-13,1895
9,83573
-11,6889
0,738856
-25,6034
13,67437
-34,7959
-9,73445
-5,93681
-3,05196
-22,3064
10,54376
15,296
n23t
14,68274
45,2732
21,72364
40,12201
39,52036
54,24311
47,54967
45,39165
49,62029
34,9489
33,67312
29,70889
18,50098
12,68243
n24t
-31,9813
14,94184
-32,4533
-5,67004
-6,57469
-3,14539
-11,4959
-10,2874
-0,08343
14,53106
0,31993
12,05689
21,48087
8,069391
n25t
-5,60649
-0,64552
-6,25895
-3,12503
15,98236
-7,77765
-2,71265
-15,0898
-3,13333
6,25928
-12,6985
-7,6956
2,770898
12,94556
n26t
-15,266
18,94416
-11,1917
-22,4544
29,22659
-14,1048
2,282582
-26,3214
4,324967
-0,07451
-26,5031
13,74004
-3,02323
17,46484
Universitas Sumatera Utara
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15 122,4266 -22,1358 -8,68658 -8,25125 -20,1698
16 -6,65755 -26,8246 -14,2659 -30,4515 -13,9676
17 -113,787 -13,3839 15,31851 25,0779 16,31699
18 183,5563 39,06098 -8,29933 6,806526 -7,05104
19 -269,409 -40,0799 -23,7994 -15,5159 -7,71215
Lampiran 9. Model
-34,9494
-0,35617
-17,6152
31,80077
-20,797
Deret Input PKB
ARIMA Model: n1t
Final Estimates of Parameters
Type
AR
1
MA
1
Constant
Mean
Coef
-0,2738
0,9551
-5,1007
-4,0043
SE Coef
0,2492
0,2038
0,3902
0,3063
T
-1,10
4,69
-13,07
P
0,288
0,000
0,000
Number of observations: 19
Residuals:
SS = 3957,17 (backforecasts excluded)
MS = 247,32 DF = 16
Modified Box-Pierce (Ljung-Box) Chi-Square statistic
Lag
Chi-Square
DF
P-Value
12
14,0
9
0,123
24
*
*
*
36
*
*
*
48
*
*
*
ARIMA Model: n2t
Final Estimates of Parameters
Type
AR
1
Constant
Mean
Coef
-0,8357
-1,241
-0,676
SE Coef
0,1881
3,725
2,029
T
-4,44
-0,33
P
0,000
0,743
Number of observations: 19
Residuals:
SS = 4438,34 (backforecasts excluded)
MS = 261,08 DF = 17
Modified Box-Pierce (Ljung-Box) Chi-Square statistic
Lag
Chi-Square
DF
P-Value
12
12,4
10
0,261
24
*
*
*
36
*
*
*
48
*
*
*
ARIMA Model: n3t
Universitas Sumatera Utara
85
Final Estimates of Parameters
Type
AR
1
AR
2
Constant
Mean
Coef
-1,1997
-0,8520
1,213
0,398
SE Coef
0,1534
0,1624
3,237
1,061
T
-7,82
-5,25
0,37
P
0,000
0,000
0,713
Number of observations: 19
Residuals:
SS = 3181,87 (backforecasts excluded)
MS = 198,87 DF = 16
Modified Box-Pierce (Ljung-Box) Chi-Square statistic
Lag
Chi-Square
DF
P-Value
12
13,9
9
0,126
24
*
*
*
36
*
*
*
48
*
*
*
ARIMA Model: n4t
Final Estimates of Parameters
Type
AR
1
AR
2
MA
1
Constant
Mean
Coef
-1,6471
-0,9777
-0,8976
-0,551
-0,152
SE Coef
0,1033
0,1008
0,1853
5,347
1,475
T
-15,95
-9,70
-4,84
-0,10
P
0,000
0,000
0,000
0,919
Number of observations: 19
Residuals:
SS = 2253,97 (backforecasts excluded)
MS = 150,26 DF = 15
Modified Box-Pierce (Ljung-Box) Chi-Square statistic
Lag
Chi-Square
DF
P-Value
12
8,4
8
0,393
24
*
*
*
36
*
*
*
48
*
*
*
ARIMA Model: n5t
Final Estimates of Parameters
Type
MA
1
Constant
Mean
Coef
0,9306
0,0989
0,0989
SE Coef
0,3291
0,4256
0,4256
T
2,83
0,23
P
0,012
0,819
Number of observations: 19
Residuals:
SS = 1744,83 (backforecasts excluded)
MS = 102,64 DF = 17
Modified Box-Pierce (Ljung-Box) Chi-Square statistic
Lag
Chi-Square
DF
P-Value
12
19,9
10
0,030
24
*
*
*
36
*
*
*
48
*
*
*
Universitas Sumatera Utara
86
ARIMA Model: n6t
Final Estimates of Parameters
Type
AR
1
AR
2
Constant
Mean
Coef
-1,3383
-0,9997
-1,023
-0,306
SE Coef
0,0655
0,0660
3,533
1,058
T
-20,42
-15,14
-0,29
P
0,000
0,000
0,776
Number of observations: 19
Residuals:
SS = 3794,00 (backforecasts excluded)
MS = 237,13 DF = 16
Modified Box-Pierce (Ljung-Box) Chi-Square statistic
Lag
Chi-Square
DF
P-Value
12
29,5
9
0,001
24
*
*
*
36
*
*
*
Lampiran 15 Model
48
*
*
*
Deret Input BBNKB
ARIMA Model: n1t
Final Estimates of Parameters
Type
AR
1
MA
1
Constant
Mean
Coef
-0,8440
0,5716
-2,515
-1,364
SE Coef
0,1905
0,2165
7,663
4,156
T
-4,43
2,64
-0,33
P
0,000
0,018
0,747
Number of observations: 19
Residuals:
SS = 96557,5 (backforecasts excluded)
MS = 6034,8 DF = 16
Modified Box-Pierce (Ljung-Box) Chi-Square statistic
Lag
Chi-Square
DF
P-Value
12
10,3
9
0,326
24
*
*
*
36
*
*
*
48
*
*
*
ARIMA Model: n2t
Final Estimates of Parameters
Type
AR
1
Constant
Mean
Coef
-0,5106
-10,378
-6,870
SE Coef
0,2339
4,107
2,719
T
-2,18
-2,53
P
0,043
0,022
Universitas Sumatera Utara
87
Number of observations: 19
Residuals:
SS = 5426,01 (backforecasts excluded)
MS = 319,18 DF = 17
Modified Box-Pierce (Ljung-Box) Chi-Square statistic
Lag
Chi-Square
DF
P-Value
12
14,4
10
0,154
24
*
*
*
36
*
*
*
48
*
*
*
ARIMA Model: n3t
Final Estimates of Parameters
Type
AR
1
Constant
Mean
Coef
0,8447
2,071
13,33
SE Coef
0,1832
4,324
27,84
T
4,61
0,48
P
0,000
0,638
Number of observations: 19
Residuals:
SS = 4410,90 (backforecasts excluded)
MS = 259,46 DF = 17
Modified Box-Pierce (Ljung-Box) Chi-Square statistic
Lag
Chi-Square
DF
P-Value
12
4,1
10
0,943
24
*
*
*
36
*
*
*
48
*
*
*
ARIMA Model: n4t
Final Estimates of Parameters
Type
MA
1
Constant
Mean
Coef
0,1422
-2,479
-2,479
SE Coef
0,2418
3,431
3,431
T
0,59
-0,72
P
0,564
0,480
Number of observations: 19
Residuals:
SS = 5159,21 (backforecasts excluded)
MS = 303,48 DF = 17
Modified Box-Pierce (Ljung-Box) Chi-Square statistic
Lag
Chi-Square
DF
P-Value
12
6,8
10
0,749
24
*
*
*
36
*
*
*
48
*
*
*
Universitas Sumatera Utara
88
ARIMA Model: n5t
Final Estimates of Parameters
Type
MA
1
Constant
Mean
Coef
1,1394
-2,82940
-2,82940
SE Coef
0,2106
0,06209
0,06209
T
5,41
-45,57
P
0,000
0,000
Number of observations: 19
Residuals:
SS = 889,605 (backforecasts excluded)
MS = 52,330 DF = 17
Modified Box-Pierce (Ljung-Box) Chi-Square statistic
Lag
Chi-Square
DF
P-Value
12
12,3
10
0,264
24
*
*
*
36
*
*
*
48
*
*
*
ARIMA Model: n6t
Final Estimates of Parameters
Type
MA
1
Constant
Mean
Coef
0,9140
-4,0215
-4,0215
SE Coef
0,2804
0,5950
0,5950
T
3,26
-6,76
P
0,005
0,000
Number of observations: 19
Residuals:
SS = 3017,51 (backforecasts excluded)
MS = 177,50 DF = 17
Modified Box-Pierce (Ljung-Box) Chi-Square statistic
Lag
Chi-Square
DF
P-Value
12
9,4
10
0,498
24
*
*
*
36
*
*
*
48
*
*
*
Universitas Sumatera Utara
89
Lampiran 11. Grafik Cross Correlation Function (CCF) dari deret input dan output
PKB
Cross Correlation Function for a11; b11
1,0
0,8
Cross Correlation
0,6
0,4
0,2
0,0
-0,2
-0,4
-0,6
-0,8
-1,0
-14 -12 -10 -8
-6
-4
-2
0
Lag
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
10
12
Cross Correlation Function for a12; b12
1,0
0,8
Cross Correlation
0,6
0,4
0,2
0,0
-0,2
-0,4
-0,6
-0,8
-1,0
-14 -12 -10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
Lag
2
4
6
8
14
Universitas Sumatera Utara
90
Cross Correlation Function for a13; b13
1,0
0,8
Cross Correlation
0,6
0,4
0,2
0,0
-0,2
-0,4
-0,6
-0,8
-1,0
-14 -12 -10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
Lag
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
Cross Correlation Function for a14; b14
1,0
0,8
Cross Correlation
0,6
0,4
0,2
0,0
-0,2
-0,4
-0,6
-0,8
-1,0
-14 -12 -10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
Lag
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
Universitas Sumatera Utara
91
Cross Correlation Function for a15; b15
1,0
0,8
Cross Correlation
0,6
0,4
0,2
0,0
-0,2
-0,4
-0,6
-0,8
-1,0
-14 -12 -10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
Lag
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
Cross Correlation Function for a16; b16
1,0
0,8
Cross Correlation
0,6
0,4
0,2
0,0
-0,2
-0,4
-0,6
-0,8
-1,0
-14 -12 -10 -8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
Lag
4
6
8
10
12
14
Lampiran 12. Grafik Cross Correlation Function (CCF) dari deret input dan output
BBNKB
Universitas Sumatera Utara
92
Cross Correlation Function for a1; b1
1,0
0,8
Cross Correlation
0,6
0,4
0,2
0,0
-0,2
-0,4
-0,6
-0,8
-1,0
-14 -12 -10 -8
-6
-4
-2
0
Lag
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
Cross Correlation Function for a2; b2
1,0
0,8
Cross Correlation
0,6
0,4
0,2
0,0
-0,2
-0,4
-0,6
-0,8
-1,0
-14 -12 -10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
Lag
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
Universitas Sumatera Utara
93
Cross Correlation Function for a3; b3
1,0
0,8
Cross Correlation
0,6
0,4
0,2
0,0
-0,2
-0,4
-0,6
-0,8
-1,0
-14 -12 -10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
Lag
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
10
12
14
Cross Correlation Function for a4; b4
1,0
0,8
Cross Correlation
0,6
0,4
0,2
0,0
-0,2
-0,4
-0,6
-0,8
-1,0
-14 -12 -10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
Lag
2
4
6
8
Universitas Sumatera Utara
94
Cross Correlation Function for a5; b5
1,0
0,8
Cross Correlation
0,6
0,4
0,2
0,0
-0,2
-0,4
-0,6
-0,8
-1,0
-14 -12 -10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
Lag
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
Cross Correlation Function for a6; b6
1,0
0,8
Cross Correlation
0,6
0,4
0,2
0,0
-0,2
-0,4
-0,6
-0,8
-1,0
-14 -12 -10 -8
-6
-4
-2
0
Lag
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
Lampiran 13. Nilai Ramalan BBNKB dan PKB, Grafik Ramalan PKB dan
BBNKB
Periode Tahun
49
50
51
52
53
54
2015
55
56
57
58
59
60
Bulan
Januari
Februari
Maret
April
Mei
Juni
Juli
Agustus
September
Oktober
November
Desember
Y21t
4602620
30303115
1725059
2690550
5045311
36666934
20106863
-9264765
-4384288
22008148
511905,3
7932392
Y22t
Y23t
4602620
4602620
32933973 23728733
20550118 -36112588
14436997 29999467
13297498 -31138966
44267784 62109252
45410328 -60966708
16691778 32248158
5156732 -43783204
24955736 63582208
14776604 -73761340
16378699 75363435
Y4t
4602620
32933973
20643186,84
15102949,6
13714920,58
44573178,33
45687655,21
17593085,11
6080574,766
25311482,96
14899558,33
16890518,45
Y5t
4602620
22445522,54
-42549279,22
39502841,3
-48161553,76
83991889,13
-100728743,6
79721580,69
-104696648,9
138371517,3
-171318468,4
194742499,3
Universitas Sumatera Utara
Y
2
2
5
1
4
4
95
Periode
Tahun
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
2015
Bulan
Januari
Februari
Maret
April
Mei
Juni
Juli
Agustus
September
Oktober
November
Desember
y1
178521580
25436142
224805580,7
396095341,9
204825684,2
233617121,8
417200566,8
318115629
232590588,4
575784472,6
331178053,6
52053540,2
y2
y3
106221807,6 339467400
645304204,9 156064073
501639342,8
39318169
4580435823 312486690
148756397,6 192945595
6338728406 87349511,1
11211876599 215774027
20815410477 12366236,6
28683339014 367321145
44490463745 539195280
71193172355
10981451
1,20333E+11 300223418
Hasil Ramalan BBNKB
250000000
BBNKB (Sedan)
200000000
150000000
BBNKB (Jeep)
(Rupiah)
100000000
50000000
BBNKB
(Mopen/Minibus)
0
-50000000
49 51 53 55 57 59
-1E+08
BBNKB
(Bus/Microbus)
BBNKB (Pick
up/Truck)
-1.5E+08
-2E+08
Hasil Ramalan PKB
1.4E+11
PKB (Sedan)
1.2E+11
(Rupiah)
1E+11
PKB (Jeep)
8E+10
PKB
(Mopen/Minibus)
6E+10
PKB
(Bus/Microbus)
4E+10
2E+10
PKB (Pick up/Truck)
0
49 51 53 55 57 59
Universitas Sumatera Utara
y4
36046050
413047478,
943746782,
486616573,
749460843,
44051953,8
523034932,
59568161
415676034,
75896912,6
127633958
100808285,
Lampiran 1. Data Realisasi PKB dan Jumlah Kendaraan Per Jenisnya Periode
Januari 2011 sampai dengan Desember 2014
PKB
(Rupiah)
t
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
Jenis Kendaraan
(Unit)
Periode
Jan-11
Feb-11
Mar-11
Apr-11
Mei-11
Jun-11
Jul-11
Agust-11
Sep-11
Okt-11
Nov-11
Des-11
Jan-12
Feb-12
Mar-12
Apr-12
Mei-12
Jun-12
Jul-12
Agust-12
Sep-12
Okt-12
Nov-12
Des-12
Jan-13
Feb-13
Mar-13
Apr-13
Mei-13
Jun-13
944.267.692
966.596.388
1.147.945.143
1.205.528.452
1.285.125.326
1.252.037.930
1.300.166.881
1.235.232.821
1.436.516.318
1.497.357.422
1.450.570.647
1.676.423.112
1.221.119.662
1.402.299.746
1.685.450.220
1.540.185.036
1.467.303.361
1.337.314.601
1.624.912.588
1.416.527.078
1.504.292.518
1.720.456.312
1.685.466.777
1.563.353.454
1.522.619.887
1.630.409.678
1.642.950.630
1.858.618.918
1.440.404.024
1.495.525.430
Sedan
Jeep
13
15
11
21
10
27
13
12
16
16
18
20
18
18
17
16
13
14
22
9
14
11
18
16
22
14
11
13
14
19
115
87
135
146
131
113
101
98
116
144
113
180
116
114
135
132
110
113
141
106
96
149
128
158
128
123
127
130
164
125
Mopen/
Bus/
Minibus Microbus
537
531
618
576
466
504
526
597
658
635
715
811
520
607
650
565
579
570
665
568
645
706
753
750
614
603
664
670
602
589
16
11
14
33
97
38
33
22
20
26
23
27
22
15
29
37
14
16
29
43
37
27
42
39
24
40
32
35
14
15
Pick
up/
Truck
Sepeda
motor/
Betor
545
553
610
664
582
465
592
560
662
561
645
715
517
629
683
579
588
536
674
576
590
665
600
603
629
606
642
677
533
531
1.026
1.065
1.213
1.152
1.073
1071
1.228
1.211
1.282
1.250
1.341
1.361
1.135
1.168
1.358
1.252
1.206
1.023
1.302
1.329
1.309
1.469
1.342
1.139
1.315
1.306
1.392
1.444
1.207
1.196
Universitas Sumatera Utara
75
Lampiran 2 (Lanjutan)
t
Periode
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
Jul-13
Agust-13
Sep-13
Okt-13
Nov-13
Des-13
Jan-14
Feb-14
Mar-14
Apr-14
Mei-14
Jun-14
Jul-14
Agust-14
Sep-14
Okt-14
Nov-14
Des-14
1.716.895.408
1.362.782.891
1.615.646.579
1.936.167.371
1.733.916.380
1.855.151.393
1.651.688.086
1.680.656.120
1.885.529.922
1.699.042.274
1.572.846.020
1.521.526.716
1.574.645.986
1.706.818.236
1.776.395.113
1.926.923.439
1.804.849.260
4.247.217.206
22
9
7
16
16
18
21
14
10
19
14
18
20
14
16
15
15
145
161
121
108
196
135
183
154
129
147
141
133
144
126
182
124
150
136
507
711
533
723
728
758
827
637
645
799
675
651
609
620
713
688
568
625
1.063
29
19
30
51
48
35
19
37
27
24
27
28
33
38
56
50
45
105
642
475
570
685
575
662
570
614
637
545
559
475
489
527
516
573
525
1.521
1.570
1.415
1.472
1.480
1.375
1.332
1.351
1.479
1.729
1.430
1.332
1.269
1.353
1.538
1.596
1.663
1.539
2.730
Lampiran 2. Data Realisasi BBNKB dan Jumlah Kendaraan Per Jenisnya
Periode Januari 2011 sampai dengan Desember 2014
BBNKB
(Rupiah)
t
Jenis Kendaraan
(Unit)
Periode
Jeep
Sedan
Mopen/
Minibus
Bus/
Microbus
Pick
up/
Truck
Sepeda
motor/
Betor
Universitas Sumatera Utara
76
1
2
3
4
5
6
Jan-11
Feb-11
Mar-11
Apr-11
Mei-11
Jun-11
45.743.286
39.408.250
60.730.481
67.805.554
48.451.614
55.343.889
3
1
2
5
1
7
17
16
29
29
18
15
48
71
93
88
50
40
4
6
4
3
3
6
45
46
60
66
44
59
56
58
102
81
52
50
1
4
2
3
8
4
4
2
5
10
3
3
2
2
3
1
2
6
6
4
1
4
6
2
4
1
1
2
4
14
15
10
21
25
25
17
16
19
23
22
18
27
15
14
22
26
16
17
17
23
22
33
21
25
12
20
15
16
66
48
90
75
92
82
67
79
109
91
70
94
99
71
108
112
106
104
74
91
84
66
82
75
98
80
74
74
92
10
5
5
1
4
4
1
2
1
5
7
1
5
8
2
3
11
7
6
13
3
2
3
5
3
7
4
4
1
41
35
52
64
67
49
35
63
68
47
44
54
76
36
48
55
56
51
60
47
47
55
40
46
67
35
39
51
44
58
58
69
52
62
62
84
59
87
83
88
67
87
102
106
149
98
67
103
92
81
122
102
83
117
72
98
112
118
Lampiran 4 (Lanjutan)
T
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
32
32
33
34
35
Periode
Jul-11
Agt-11
Sep-11
Okt-11
Nov-11
Des-11
Jan-12
Feb-12
Mar-12
Apr-12
Mei-12
Jun-12
Jul-12
Agt-12
Sep-12
Okt-12
Nov-12
Des-12
Jan-13
Feb-13
Mar-13
Apr-13
Mei-13
Jun-13
Jul-13
Agt-13
Sep-13
Okt-13
Nov-13
60.988.602
45.390.107
58.709.015
69.547.478
82.923.205
62.244.251
50.345.906
72.342.223
81.280.599
82.242.551
61.749.112
99.611.673
106.398.930
62.081.885
63.865.747
94.503.214
97.699.809
78.622.950
78.967.502
84.796.712
69.989.097
65.164.061
87.738.933
71.965.158
101.272.270
60.752.579
61.140.314
74.242.455
78.622.975
Universitas Sumatera Utara
77
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
Des-13
Jan-14
Feb-14
Mar-14
Apr-14
Mei-14
Jun-14
Jul-14
71.609.401
75.872.406
62.538.671
73.472.762
68.567.644
82.030.479
61.254.119
68.639.728
4
7
1
1
1
5
3
1
13
19
18
27
24
24
22
13
70
88
52
80
72
78
56
87
2
1
1
2
7
3
2
2
48
50
57
60
47
43
36
27
62
105
95
100
80
79
84
84
3
1
4
5
6
23
18
20
20
17
75
97
64
90
68
2
8
3
3
2
55
50
40
53
29
129
103
96
70
42
Lampiran 5 (Lanjutan)
t
44
45
46
47
48
Periode
Agt-14
Sep-14
Okt-14
Nov-14
Des-14
77.841.636
72.642.224
62.737.171
82.871.454
46.736.492
Lampiran 3. Tabel Deret Input berdasarkan jumlah kendaraan per jenisnya (
dan Deret Output Data PKB (
yang Diputihkan
0
0
0
0
0
0
)
0
Universitas Sumatera Utara
0
0
78
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
2,0356 17,85216
-53
-5,7
-137
-5,7
-7,51006 2,543614 -30,4865 -35,1569
-82,3234 -33,9467
-4,8428 -22,4806 -18,0142 -23,8062 116,930908 -15,6064
-17,0036 -39,6095 13,21937
-13,973 -99,882622 -3,93182
-2,78342 -20,4826 29,84649 22,17517 59,2513895 31,24867
-4,1856 -23,3617
-47,511 -20,1053
-204,9633 -19,2946
-8,9879 -41,7201 -34,9827 -13,4964
59,341318 -8,73495
-11,5399 -31,8116 24,29667 15,81622
104,09139 21,5774
-8,03031 -23,2591 4,935414 -1,38279 -53,691617 -1,23662
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
13
-5,7
-9,3055 -36,0461
-85,0868
-30,159
64,91272 -23,8902
20,38727 10,31119
26,90817 -28,2311
-2,72417 -24,5677
-14,6602 2,899648
19,68436 -11,5285
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Lanjutan (lampiran 3)
-9,64982
-3,61529
-9,70803
-13,6314
-20,8982
-12,9207
-18,7985
-8,10912
-11,8984
-23,5783
-17,4813
-15,3206
-16,2928
-11,5472
-16,0487
-22,2994
-57,5784
-33,1178
-5,20535
-18,5482
-10,4608
-51,8634
-66,7041
-45,9857
-66,6351
-75,0944
-47,2407
-50,7225
-67,7983
-48,7069
-52,3713
-66,7691
-42,9505
35,75912
-33,6596
-18,8277
1,961843
48,59969
-70,164
-15,7395
5,045721
4,420014
18,83662
-53,0946
34,64592
-19,103
-35,584
23,8136
-37,1146
45,80749
-27,105
-39,5186
43,85137
-36,8171
20,44073
-22,8236
-10,2077
21,41454
-0,07207
-21,0443
39,26453
-41,1853
-13,4658
25,95228
-98,655241
193,997882
-47,757888
-144,37085
-13,117849
101,001224
-149,30456
142,812969
-428,06965
244,332038
94,4207453
-101,1278
-83,94693
251,822477
-135,56644
13,8517167
-36,7321
53,91953
-1,09815
-30,0223
-6,55507
-66,1068
22,22193
45,18652
-45,1371
8,69311
44,61091
-24,2745
-34,456
67,19888
-21,943
-26,761
-5,77822
-8,64243
26,56066
-32,0165
7,477375
90,56016
-60,5235
-15,5347
-47,5926
22,93829
48,49324
-35,2704
-1,8645
10,34382
-19,6643
21,25735
-47,2376
30,13251
-35,2656
-48,8403
45,718
-30,5496
18,00673
-40,9587
-10,209
18,44813
-14,6887
-27,5087
50,15004
-67,0807
-9,2786
37,96194
Universitas Sumatera Utara
0
0
105,3112
-61,148
5,208636
-70,0297
38,03731
52,85432
-132,289
-71,1963
183,3013
-32,535
-80,2494
75,111
52,15698
-111,283
79
-13,8953
-11,2988
-9,49405
-13,9862
-9,85609
-9,29624
-9,05157
-15,0831
-18,7985
-8,10912
-11,8984
-23,5783
-17,4813
-15,3206
-16,2928
-11,5472
-16,0487
-22,2994
-13,8953
-11,2988
-9,49405
-13,9862
-9,85609
-9,29624
-9,05157
-15,0831
-15,0831
-75,649 -16,5372
-82,7103 -69,7845
-77,7837 70,01901
-97,8075 -72,7063
-74,8637 113,5817
-60,8451 -49,6466
-69,1069 -87,0654
-80,8766 73,48937
-66,7041
-45,9857
-66,6351
-75,0944
-47,2407
-50,7225
-67,7983
-48,7069
-52,3713
-66,7691
-75,649
-82,7103
-77,7837
-97,8075
-74,8637
-60,8451
-69,1069
-80,8766
-80,8766
-70,164
-15,7395
5,045721
4,420014
18,83662
-53,0946
34,64592
-19,103
-35,584
23,8136
-16,5372
-69,7845
70,01901
-72,7063
113,5817
-49,6466
-87,0654
73,48937
73,48937
-57,8586
51,08261
-22,0967
-21,7596
60,41209
-31,4916
-28,4852
16,84635
20,44073
-22,8236
-10,2077
21,41454
-0,07207
-21,0443
39,26453
-41,1853
-13,4658
25,95228
-57,8586
51,08261
-22,0967
-21,7596
60,41209
-31,4916
-28,4852
16,84635
16,84635
-90,048004 -7,68807
38,6915226 -48,1296
-134,40156 27,4895
40,6262566 10,71501
-80,967564 10,03173
25,4307326 -4,57948
-93,741583 22,34513
12,6127279 -25,4418
-149,30456
142,812969
-428,06965
244,332038
94,4207453
-101,1278
-83,94693
251,822477
-135,56644
13,8517167
-90,048004
38,6915226
-134,40156
40,6262566
-80,967564
25,4307326
-93,741583
12,6127279
12,6127279
22,22193
45,18652
-45,1371
8,69311
44,61091
-24,2745
-34,456
67,19888
-21,943
-26,761
-7,68807
-48,1296
27,4895
10,71501
10,03173
-4,57948
22,34513
-25,4418
-25,4418
0,274799
-84,924 47,60838
23,38584 56,27334 -91,6923
1,789274 -37,1176 -9,92266
-9,22927 -17,7403 -102,351
39,96411 56,24212 -29,1394
-9,41104 -42,7772 41,10003
-57,5894 -34,7499 29,67335
17,03547 18,00162 54,42561
-60,5235
-15,5347
-47,5926
22,93829
48,49324
-35,2704
-1,8645
10,34382
-19,6643
21,25735
0,274799
23,38584
1,789274
-9,22927
39,96411
-9,41104
-57,5894
17,03547
17,03547
Lampiran 4. Tabel Deret Input berdasarkan jumlah kendaraan per jenisnya (
yang Diputihkan
dan Deret Output Data BBNKB (
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
18,00673
-40,9587
-10,209
18,44813
-14,6887
-27,5087
50,15004
-67,0807
-9,2786
37,96194
-84,924
56,27334
-37,1176
-17,7403
56,24212
-42,7772
-34,7499
18,00162
18,00162
38,03731
52,85432
-132,289
-71,1963
183,3013
-32,535
-80,2494
75,111
52,15698
-111,283
47,60838
-91,6923
-9,92266
-102,351
-29,1394
41,10003
29,67335
54,42561
54,42561
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
)
Universitas Sumatera Utara
80
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1,8667
2,01064
5,60092
0,764505
-3,02675
0,542695
-1,6729
0,929966
-2,05796
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
36,92306
12,38139
19,93697
5,986716
49,84013
34,22117
22,0228
-2,27377
31,68589
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0 28,33135
-10 -12,3839
4 -6,11312
10
-1,1395
-1 30,97029
10 1,142544
-13 -28,7186
4
-11,535
-3
19,799
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
-8,9499
0,878994
-10,4894
7,966062
43,26452
23,42288
14,45625
10,37812
30,20052
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
28,82798
16,88716
11,16927
10,38236
41,66719
43,09034
14,62211
3,310385
23,30861
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
-1
0
5
7
-2
-2
6
0
5
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
28,33135
15,9475
9,834377
8,694878
39,66516
40,80771
12,08916
0,554112
20,35312
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
9,356
12,58563
-24,1968
7,224449
-11,4933
41,50821
-9,55358
5,351157
-16,8672
36
1
18
7,7
4
36
1
1,2
27
-5,68717
2,454549
0,292842
0,162248
-6,41166
-13,4187
8,445961
-1,66406
2,565314
0,991094
-5,08216
7,711237
5,689366
-8,86289
5,971603
-11,7067
16,28283
-4,39054
-13,5302
19,60412
-25,9539
25,65319
-16,3131
4,900462
0 -10,1791
24,31305
-10 1,602095
14,03993
9 7,640277
-41,5766
1 -66,6536
10,16957
20,82 -1,67796
-74,998
-12,128 5,106594
70,42405
-5,82 45,0989
-164,164
-6,218 -108,825
61,97294
-22,82 20,48384
-114,353
22,166 54,97381
108,5005
1,872 19,15932
-185,631
-7,654 -52,8172
131,6729
-3 19,32314
-198,374
24,82 9,208352
152,9252
-11,038 -14,2991
-172,208
-2,782 49,12726
116,9189 -16,2812 50,79986
-18,5283 12,4841 1,71355
-105,299 -18,4488 -87,4477
271,4641 22,86248 133,7352
-453,244 9,84524 -60,4597
578,4691 6,666188 2,934726
-713,211 -23,4639 -19,1736
7,934187
16,58869
-10,0672
2,539849
-39,1491
-30,3599
-3,94153
-56,5144
-24,6919
-7,98736
-47,5321
-63,563
-24,56
-49,5473
8,264069
-47,8246
11,12887
21,2342
-12,5072
-7,45322
-10,974
-11,3493
44,41078
13,3072
15,06785
24,48718
-9,80481
-25,4606
-27,2091
16,68291
-56,8246
-34,9694
-12,608
-6,51651
-36,7557
-28,9693
-17,8978
-21,8302
-30,5463
10,52119
14,1946
-22,6393
6,930966
-29,4797
17,81179
13,13844
10
6
6,9155
12,554
3,9155
0,723
0,446
5,1925
-0,8075
3,0845
3,9155
4,723
-4,4695
-0,9155
-0,1925
-5,0235
2,723
6,9155
1,554
1,446
1,277
-2,3615
7,723
10,17398
11,77608
25,68282
19,7575
-8,46525
-16,4621
26,19425
-16,2463
6,686554
0,102152
-5,46389
-15,8419
-18,3377
-5,69527
2,648991
-22,3584
-5,20083
-7,37291
-0,91575
-25,3079
-39,0884
12,00589
5,914046
-2,71934
-3,96425
40,09187
-42,2806
-16,2234
19,41401
-0,81051
-5,32911
-41,5034
1,669651
-8,02948
8,394898
-4,72333
-1,51907
-37,4567
32,91205
24,29305
-11,845
5,415881
-1,51699
-31,1653
25,315
13,29928
8,8
19
1
-1
-3
-2
14
-7
-3
-2
-1
-2
-2
-2
-3
21
12
-2
17
-2
24
6,4
Universitas Sumatera Utara
81
9,289554 952,4504 25,98543 35,83114
-7,87242 -1155,54
4,346 -0,54086
21,95381 1400,618 -26,4092 -48,3856
14,04066 1,440368
6,627226 16,44292
19,55348 -20,4394
2,3615
1,385
1,1925
-23,4322 -3,66539 13
-7,25042 18,94366 17
-32,0109 -16,9742 -1
Lampiran 5. Tabel Hasil Korelasi Silang antara Masing-masing Deret Input dan
Deret Output PKB
lag
-15
-14
-13
-12
-11
-10
-9
-8
-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
ccf (a1;b1) ccf(a2;b2)
0,220413 -0,26463
0,10877 0,413709
-0,11821 -0,29357
0,028374 0,120734
0,00305 0,146512
0,111681 -0,43902
0,241015 0,333299
-0,124
0,04615
-0,17759 -0,32074
0,044985 0,440697
-0,01325 -0,34015
0,250178 -0,11445
0,299317 0,578701
-0,1433
-0,5076
-0,31798 0,066544
-0,00925 0,196828
0,009087 -0,33723
0,17461
0,36667
0,075371
-0,0187
-0,26978 -0,16802
-0,20547 0,060733
0,021809 -0,05879
0,13164 0,055872
0,144758 0,085047
-0,16524 -0,14987
-0,1668 0,068377
-0,105 -0,03181
-0,08695 0,011008
0,081515 0,095547
0,121955 -0,07388
0,018576 -0,13552
ccf(a3;b3) ccf(a4;b4) ccf(a5;b5)
-0,03289 -0,33986
0,130202 0,087058 -0,03527
-0,23243 0,133205
-0,0869
0,221905 -0,17543 0,131411
-0,0189 0,164098 -0,12069
-0,19755 -0,24895
-0,1337
0,195025 -0,09496 -0,08528
0,08013 0,339599 0,271676
-0,33193 -0,28262 0,271457
0,357723 0,203211 0,007287
-0,22213 0,234822 0,019941
-0,05217 -0,33905 -0,09118
0,239766 0,560441 -0,17779
-0,06082 0,074741 -0,33341
-0,38092 -0,51846 0,132174
0,535563 0,381565
0,31612
-0,16895 -0,40789 -0,09731
-0,28314 -0,10305 -0,29687
0,411694 0,438335 -0,09937
-0,04268 -0,40807 0,224794
-0,23388 -0,04604 0,055202
0,209411 -0,02231
0,19428
-0,29972 -0,30869 0,340616
0,223632 0,285438 -0,13868
0,213985 -0,07671 -0,47749
-0,31583 -0,19891 -0,21808
-0,05038 0,305634 0,169997
0,209202 -0,08316 0,251678
-0,11417
0,17951
-0,019
-0,0979 0,288172 0,038423
0,224692 -0,29956
ccf(a6;b6)
-0,11376
0,180789
0,1348
-0,27817
0,096127
-0,18826
-0,05881
0,357817
-0,28689
0,157354
0,233772
-0,3918
0,420349
-0,03823
-0,61601
0,342796
-0,16281
0,045806
0,559822
-0,29178
0,025374
-0,04146
-0,34914
0,283684
-0,22356
-0,09375
0,406947
-0,10826
0,150514
0,101396
-0,46545
Universitas Sumatera Utara
82
Lampiran 6. Tabel Hasil Korelasi Silang antara Masing-masing Deret Input dan
Deret Output BBNKB
Lag
-15
-14
-13
-12
-11
-10
-9
-8
-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
ccf (a1;b1)
ccf(a2;b2)
0,078894 0,196229
-0,104715 0,127233
0,099883 -0,03264
-0,114409 -0,26938
0,113134
0,34129
-0,113423
-0,2184
0,104491 -0,02239
-0,105221 0,089549
0,077841
0,25921
-0,028395 -0,57427
-0,040171 0,154435
0,113934 0,446625
-0,232374 -0,11793
0,377952 -0,22187
-0,528683 0,003003
0,689358 0,379895
-0,60138 -0,40795
0,637055 0,206996
-0,62783 -0,09315
0,558749 0,084617
-0,353298 -0,28393
0,116596 0,410306
0,113908 -0,13715
-0,283888
-0,106
0,305519 -0,18688
-0,183301 0,326086
0,109352 -0,16867
-0,073383 0,037953
0,001852 0,005385
0,049397 -0,06399
0,033886 0,148976
ccf(a3;b3) ccf(a4;b4)
-0,39871 -0,06512
-0,3729 0,032634
-0,34886 -0,17815
-0,36646 -0,04239
-0,35956 0,091088
-0,26537 0,020048
-0,31934 0,092406
0,021769
0,40697
0,032872 0,210895
0,236454
0,13325
0,109683 0,221923
0,385176
0,23981
0,457337 0,150004
0,284541 0,108477
0,454298
0,40546
0,711775 0,119662
0,459033 0,004387
0,355846 0,166585
0,320705 0,076326
0,247525 -0,00483
0,291759 0,109602
-0,03358 0,055134
0,225407
0,02094
-0,06454 -0,06938
-0,20889 0,001794
-0,08877 -0,05772
-0,19109 -0,03977
-0,305 -0,05498
-0,20801 -0,04486
-0,16253 -0,06013
-0,14045 -0,06835
ccf(a5;b5) ccf(a6;b6)
-0,0788 0,278951
-0,04486 -0,28535
-0,12494 0,170862
-0,19353 -0,06878
-0,10643 -0,10227
0,008736 0,201838
-0,06369 -0,26911
-0,34853 0,379076
0,008838 -0,41419
-0,01018 0,505647
0,26779 -0,46584
-0,24339 0,597719
0,148878 -0,51506
-0,11889 0,585012
0,152564
-0,4054
0,278106 0,296191
0,279751 -0,07494
-0,19357 -0,03503
0,056087 0,198523
0,266984 -0,25809
0,080508 0,271029
0,11878
-0,3306
-0,02242 0,335063
0,155718 -0,39611
-0,18274 0,357571
0,130919 -0,40613
-0,10075 0,255676
0,107705 -0,21429
-0,2933 0,075583
0,146849 -0,07133
-0,07688
-0,0055
Lampiran 7. Tabel Hasil Perhitungan Deret Gangguan
Universitas Sumatera Utara
83
t
n1t
-26,17181
1,06877
-9,52070
-20,76828
27,55523
0,72052
-9,70271
6,35843
-18,22136
-8,40858
26,03164
-58,43698
27,88608
-17,51859
-11,97653
43,47030
-34,28650
-10,02714
0,55936
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
n2t
-38,57543
25,76649
-12,56305
-7,13153
15,53184
-8,66345
18,07000
-6,83880
-6,06981
8,93012
-8,82393
-17,80267
31,32179
-34,86142
21,54990
-2,03690
14,97531
0,86369
-43,00373
n3t
6,07387
9,66946
-41,47056
30,68785
8,61271
-30,83736
37,81532
-4,13060
-28,33889
23,48570
-11,36469
-24,46330
43,65330
-42,93289
24,87498
12,82967
-19,27409
41,46789
-34,18318
n4t
11,48542
-3,55806
-17,15657
54,18683
-46,73493
30,26890
-10,12183
-9,67867
24,41031
-34,50037
24,67580
-24,89276
-8,43831
29,39920
-28,54451
29,39434
7,72239
-28,02505
20,11145
n5t
-13,87619
-19,66428
36,30961
-14,81319
0,21633
-0,03443
-10,11711
19,14755
-9,61362
-0,17317
2,20109
4,07309
-11,62116
9,69253
-20,58417
27,44465
-6,77483
-10,21390
22,59297
n6t
71,57679
-25,25398
-65,62932
112,49969
-83,77579
27,99253
47,75763
-87,77621
78,65493
-26,09324
-72,28557
101,70457
-52,84696
-26,71371
106,67957
-105,75162
37,18949
44,29465
-105,45867
Lampiran 8. Tabel Hasil Perhitungan Deret Gangguan
t
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
n21t
-129,366
30,3658
42,65285
-235,386
295,1605
-209,707
119,3007
-143,995
54,52779
10,08465
61,67996
-91,5217
175,9127
-159,178
n22t
0,223863
-13,1895
9,83573
-11,6889
0,738856
-25,6034
13,67437
-34,7959
-9,73445
-5,93681
-3,05196
-22,3064
10,54376
15,296
n23t
14,68274
45,2732
21,72364
40,12201
39,52036
54,24311
47,54967
45,39165
49,62029
34,9489
33,67312
29,70889
18,50098
12,68243
n24t
-31,9813
14,94184
-32,4533
-5,67004
-6,57469
-3,14539
-11,4959
-10,2874
-0,08343
14,53106
0,31993
12,05689
21,48087
8,069391
n25t
-5,60649
-0,64552
-6,25895
-3,12503
15,98236
-7,77765
-2,71265
-15,0898
-3,13333
6,25928
-12,6985
-7,6956
2,770898
12,94556
n26t
-15,266
18,94416
-11,1917
-22,4544
29,22659
-14,1048
2,282582
-26,3214
4,324967
-0,07451
-26,5031
13,74004
-3,02323
17,46484
Universitas Sumatera Utara
84
15 122,4266 -22,1358 -8,68658 -8,25125 -20,1698
16 -6,65755 -26,8246 -14,2659 -30,4515 -13,9676
17 -113,787 -13,3839 15,31851 25,0779 16,31699
18 183,5563 39,06098 -8,29933 6,806526 -7,05104
19 -269,409 -40,0799 -23,7994 -15,5159 -7,71215
Lampiran 9. Model
-34,9494
-0,35617
-17,6152
31,80077
-20,797
Deret Input PKB
ARIMA Model: n1t
Final Estimates of Parameters
Type
AR
1
MA
1
Constant
Mean
Coef
-0,2738
0,9551
-5,1007
-4,0043
SE Coef
0,2492
0,2038
0,3902
0,3063
T
-1,10
4,69
-13,07
P
0,288
0,000
0,000
Number of observations: 19
Residuals:
SS = 3957,17 (backforecasts excluded)
MS = 247,32 DF = 16
Modified Box-Pierce (Ljung-Box) Chi-Square statistic
Lag
Chi-Square
DF
P-Value
12
14,0
9
0,123
24
*
*
*
36
*
*
*
48
*
*
*
ARIMA Model: n2t
Final Estimates of Parameters
Type
AR
1
Constant
Mean
Coef
-0,8357
-1,241
-0,676
SE Coef
0,1881
3,725
2,029
T
-4,44
-0,33
P
0,000
0,743
Number of observations: 19
Residuals:
SS = 4438,34 (backforecasts excluded)
MS = 261,08 DF = 17
Modified Box-Pierce (Ljung-Box) Chi-Square statistic
Lag
Chi-Square
DF
P-Value
12
12,4
10
0,261
24
*
*
*
36
*
*
*
48
*
*
*
ARIMA Model: n3t
Universitas Sumatera Utara
85
Final Estimates of Parameters
Type
AR
1
AR
2
Constant
Mean
Coef
-1,1997
-0,8520
1,213
0,398
SE Coef
0,1534
0,1624
3,237
1,061
T
-7,82
-5,25
0,37
P
0,000
0,000
0,713
Number of observations: 19
Residuals:
SS = 3181,87 (backforecasts excluded)
MS = 198,87 DF = 16
Modified Box-Pierce (Ljung-Box) Chi-Square statistic
Lag
Chi-Square
DF
P-Value
12
13,9
9
0,126
24
*
*
*
36
*
*
*
48
*
*
*
ARIMA Model: n4t
Final Estimates of Parameters
Type
AR
1
AR
2
MA
1
Constant
Mean
Coef
-1,6471
-0,9777
-0,8976
-0,551
-0,152
SE Coef
0,1033
0,1008
0,1853
5,347
1,475
T
-15,95
-9,70
-4,84
-0,10
P
0,000
0,000
0,000
0,919
Number of observations: 19
Residuals:
SS = 2253,97 (backforecasts excluded)
MS = 150,26 DF = 15
Modified Box-Pierce (Ljung-Box) Chi-Square statistic
Lag
Chi-Square
DF
P-Value
12
8,4
8
0,393
24
*
*
*
36
*
*
*
48
*
*
*
ARIMA Model: n5t
Final Estimates of Parameters
Type
MA
1
Constant
Mean
Coef
0,9306
0,0989
0,0989
SE Coef
0,3291
0,4256
0,4256
T
2,83
0,23
P
0,012
0,819
Number of observations: 19
Residuals:
SS = 1744,83 (backforecasts excluded)
MS = 102,64 DF = 17
Modified Box-Pierce (Ljung-Box) Chi-Square statistic
Lag
Chi-Square
DF
P-Value
12
19,9
10
0,030
24
*
*
*
36
*
*
*
48
*
*
*
Universitas Sumatera Utara
86
ARIMA Model: n6t
Final Estimates of Parameters
Type
AR
1
AR
2
Constant
Mean
Coef
-1,3383
-0,9997
-1,023
-0,306
SE Coef
0,0655
0,0660
3,533
1,058
T
-20,42
-15,14
-0,29
P
0,000
0,000
0,776
Number of observations: 19
Residuals:
SS = 3794,00 (backforecasts excluded)
MS = 237,13 DF = 16
Modified Box-Pierce (Ljung-Box) Chi-Square statistic
Lag
Chi-Square
DF
P-Value
12
29,5
9
0,001
24
*
*
*
36
*
*
*
Lampiran 15 Model
48
*
*
*
Deret Input BBNKB
ARIMA Model: n1t
Final Estimates of Parameters
Type
AR
1
MA
1
Constant
Mean
Coef
-0,8440
0,5716
-2,515
-1,364
SE Coef
0,1905
0,2165
7,663
4,156
T
-4,43
2,64
-0,33
P
0,000
0,018
0,747
Number of observations: 19
Residuals:
SS = 96557,5 (backforecasts excluded)
MS = 6034,8 DF = 16
Modified Box-Pierce (Ljung-Box) Chi-Square statistic
Lag
Chi-Square
DF
P-Value
12
10,3
9
0,326
24
*
*
*
36
*
*
*
48
*
*
*
ARIMA Model: n2t
Final Estimates of Parameters
Type
AR
1
Constant
Mean
Coef
-0,5106
-10,378
-6,870
SE Coef
0,2339
4,107
2,719
T
-2,18
-2,53
P
0,043
0,022
Universitas Sumatera Utara
87
Number of observations: 19
Residuals:
SS = 5426,01 (backforecasts excluded)
MS = 319,18 DF = 17
Modified Box-Pierce (Ljung-Box) Chi-Square statistic
Lag
Chi-Square
DF
P-Value
12
14,4
10
0,154
24
*
*
*
36
*
*
*
48
*
*
*
ARIMA Model: n3t
Final Estimates of Parameters
Type
AR
1
Constant
Mean
Coef
0,8447
2,071
13,33
SE Coef
0,1832
4,324
27,84
T
4,61
0,48
P
0,000
0,638
Number of observations: 19
Residuals:
SS = 4410,90 (backforecasts excluded)
MS = 259,46 DF = 17
Modified Box-Pierce (Ljung-Box) Chi-Square statistic
Lag
Chi-Square
DF
P-Value
12
4,1
10
0,943
24
*
*
*
36
*
*
*
48
*
*
*
ARIMA Model: n4t
Final Estimates of Parameters
Type
MA
1
Constant
Mean
Coef
0,1422
-2,479
-2,479
SE Coef
0,2418
3,431
3,431
T
0,59
-0,72
P
0,564
0,480
Number of observations: 19
Residuals:
SS = 5159,21 (backforecasts excluded)
MS = 303,48 DF = 17
Modified Box-Pierce (Ljung-Box) Chi-Square statistic
Lag
Chi-Square
DF
P-Value
12
6,8
10
0,749
24
*
*
*
36
*
*
*
48
*
*
*
Universitas Sumatera Utara
88
ARIMA Model: n5t
Final Estimates of Parameters
Type
MA
1
Constant
Mean
Coef
1,1394
-2,82940
-2,82940
SE Coef
0,2106
0,06209
0,06209
T
5,41
-45,57
P
0,000
0,000
Number of observations: 19
Residuals:
SS = 889,605 (backforecasts excluded)
MS = 52,330 DF = 17
Modified Box-Pierce (Ljung-Box) Chi-Square statistic
Lag
Chi-Square
DF
P-Value
12
12,3
10
0,264
24
*
*
*
36
*
*
*
48
*
*
*
ARIMA Model: n6t
Final Estimates of Parameters
Type
MA
1
Constant
Mean
Coef
0,9140
-4,0215
-4,0215
SE Coef
0,2804
0,5950
0,5950
T
3,26
-6,76
P
0,005
0,000
Number of observations: 19
Residuals:
SS = 3017,51 (backforecasts excluded)
MS = 177,50 DF = 17
Modified Box-Pierce (Ljung-Box) Chi-Square statistic
Lag
Chi-Square
DF
P-Value
12
9,4
10
0,498
24
*
*
*
36
*
*
*
48
*
*
*
Universitas Sumatera Utara
89
Lampiran 11. Grafik Cross Correlation Function (CCF) dari deret input dan output
PKB
Cross Correlation Function for a11; b11
1,0
0,8
Cross Correlation
0,6
0,4
0,2
0,0
-0,2
-0,4
-0,6
-0,8
-1,0
-14 -12 -10 -8
-6
-4
-2
0
Lag
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
10
12
Cross Correlation Function for a12; b12
1,0
0,8
Cross Correlation
0,6
0,4
0,2
0,0
-0,2
-0,4
-0,6
-0,8
-1,0
-14 -12 -10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
Lag
2
4
6
8
14
Universitas Sumatera Utara
90
Cross Correlation Function for a13; b13
1,0
0,8
Cross Correlation
0,6
0,4
0,2
0,0
-0,2
-0,4
-0,6
-0,8
-1,0
-14 -12 -10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
Lag
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
Cross Correlation Function for a14; b14
1,0
0,8
Cross Correlation
0,6
0,4
0,2
0,0
-0,2
-0,4
-0,6
-0,8
-1,0
-14 -12 -10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
Lag
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
Universitas Sumatera Utara
91
Cross Correlation Function for a15; b15
1,0
0,8
Cross Correlation
0,6
0,4
0,2
0,0
-0,2
-0,4
-0,6
-0,8
-1,0
-14 -12 -10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
Lag
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
Cross Correlation Function for a16; b16
1,0
0,8
Cross Correlation
0,6
0,4
0,2
0,0
-0,2
-0,4
-0,6
-0,8
-1,0
-14 -12 -10 -8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
Lag
4
6
8
10
12
14
Lampiran 12. Grafik Cross Correlation Function (CCF) dari deret input dan output
BBNKB
Universitas Sumatera Utara
92
Cross Correlation Function for a1; b1
1,0
0,8
Cross Correlation
0,6
0,4
0,2
0,0
-0,2
-0,4
-0,6
-0,8
-1,0
-14 -12 -10 -8
-6
-4
-2
0
Lag
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
Cross Correlation Function for a2; b2
1,0
0,8
Cross Correlation
0,6
0,4
0,2
0,0
-0,2
-0,4
-0,6
-0,8
-1,0
-14 -12 -10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
Lag
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
Universitas Sumatera Utara
93
Cross Correlation Function for a3; b3
1,0
0,8
Cross Correlation
0,6
0,4
0,2
0,0
-0,2
-0,4
-0,6
-0,8
-1,0
-14 -12 -10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
Lag
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
10
12
14
Cross Correlation Function for a4; b4
1,0
0,8
Cross Correlation
0,6
0,4
0,2
0,0
-0,2
-0,4
-0,6
-0,8
-1,0
-14 -12 -10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
Lag
2
4
6
8
Universitas Sumatera Utara
94
Cross Correlation Function for a5; b5
1,0
0,8
Cross Correlation
0,6
0,4
0,2
0,0
-0,2
-0,4
-0,6
-0,8
-1,0
-14 -12 -10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
Lag
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
Cross Correlation Function for a6; b6
1,0
0,8
Cross Correlation
0,6
0,4
0,2
0,0
-0,2
-0,4
-0,6
-0,8
-1,0
-14 -12 -10 -8
-6
-4
-2
0
Lag
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
Lampiran 13. Nilai Ramalan BBNKB dan PKB, Grafik Ramalan PKB dan
BBNKB
Periode Tahun
49
50
51
52
53
54
2015
55
56
57
58
59
60
Bulan
Januari
Februari
Maret
April
Mei
Juni
Juli
Agustus
September
Oktober
November
Desember
Y21t
4602620
30303115
1725059
2690550
5045311
36666934
20106863
-9264765
-4384288
22008148
511905,3
7932392
Y22t
Y23t
4602620
4602620
32933973 23728733
20550118 -36112588
14436997 29999467
13297498 -31138966
44267784 62109252
45410328 -60966708
16691778 32248158
5156732 -43783204
24955736 63582208
14776604 -73761340
16378699 75363435
Y4t
4602620
32933973
20643186,84
15102949,6
13714920,58
44573178,33
45687655,21
17593085,11
6080574,766
25311482,96
14899558,33
16890518,45
Y5t
4602620
22445522,54
-42549279,22
39502841,3
-48161553,76
83991889,13
-100728743,6
79721580,69
-104696648,9
138371517,3
-171318468,4
194742499,3
Universitas Sumatera Utara
Y
2
2
5
1
4
4
95
Periode
Tahun
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
2015
Bulan
Januari
Februari
Maret
April
Mei
Juni
Juli
Agustus
September
Oktober
November
Desember
y1
178521580
25436142
224805580,7
396095341,9
204825684,2
233617121,8
417200566,8
318115629
232590588,4
575784472,6
331178053,6
52053540,2
y2
y3
106221807,6 339467400
645304204,9 156064073
501639342,8
39318169
4580435823 312486690
148756397,6 192945595
6338728406 87349511,1
11211876599 215774027
20815410477 12366236,6
28683339014 367321145
44490463745 539195280
71193172355
10981451
1,20333E+11 300223418
Hasil Ramalan BBNKB
250000000
BBNKB (Sedan)
200000000
150000000
BBNKB (Jeep)
(Rupiah)
100000000
50000000
BBNKB
(Mopen/Minibus)
0
-50000000
49 51 53 55 57 59
-1E+08
BBNKB
(Bus/Microbus)
BBNKB (Pick
up/Truck)
-1.5E+08
-2E+08
Hasil Ramalan PKB
1.4E+11
PKB (Sedan)
1.2E+11
(Rupiah)
1E+11
PKB (Jeep)
8E+10
PKB
(Mopen/Minibus)
6E+10
PKB
(Bus/Microbus)
4E+10
2E+10
PKB (Pick up/Truck)
0
49 51 53 55 57 59
Universitas Sumatera Utara
y4
36046050
413047478,
943746782,
486616573,
749460843,
44051953,8
523034932,
59568161
415676034,
75896912,6
127633958
100808285,