INTELLIGENT SYSTEMS AND EMPLOYMENT LEVELS

15.12 INTELLIGENT SYSTEMS AND EMPLOYMENT LEVELS

T h e r e i s v e r y little i n f o r m a t i o n o n t h e r e l a t i o n s h i p o f M S S t o e m p l o y m e n t l e v e l s . However, MSS and especially intelligent systems have the potential to significantly

a f f e c t the productivity a n d e m p l o y m e n t o f m a n y t y p e s o f e m p l o y e e s a s w e l l t o c o m - p l e t e l y a u t o m a t e jobs. T h e material i n this s e c t i o n s u m m a r i z e s t h e p o s i t i o n s o f s o m e o f t h e world's t o p e x p e r t s w i t h regard t o t h e p o t e n t i a l i m p a c t o f i n t e l l i g e n t s y s t e m s o n productivity and u n e m p l o y m e n t .

A l t h o u g h the i m p a c t o f A l m a y t a k e d e c a d e s t o fully materialize, t h e r e i s a g r e e - m e n t a m o n g r e s e a r c h e r s that i n t e l l i g e n t s y s t e m s a r e i n c r e a s i n g t h e p r o d u c t i v i t y o f k n o w l e d g e workers. T e c h n o l o g y is getting less e x p e n s i v e and m o r e capable, and thus is bringing a b o u t substantial c h a n g e s i n j o b s and j o b c o n t e n t . H o w e v e r , researchers dis-

a g r e e a b o u t the p o t e n t i a l i m p a c t o f intelligent s y s t e m s o n t h e a g g r e g a t e e m p l o y m e n t

TABLE 15.6 Is Mass Unemployment Coming?

No Massive Unemployment • Benefit/cost advantage of computers

Massive Unemployment Will Come

• N e w occupations and jobs have always

been created by automation. • Less skillful employees are needed.

increases with time.

• There is much less unemployment in coun- ® Shifting displaced employees to services is

tries that use more automation.

• Work can be expanded to accommodate • Many employees lost their jobs in the

getting difficult.

everyone.

• Conversion to automation is slow, and the • Hidden unemployment exists in many

1990s.

economy can adjust.

• Many tasks cannot be fully automated. • Millions of help-desk employees will be

organizations.

• There will always be some areas where

people are better than machines. • Electronic commerce will cause millions of

replaced by intelligent agents.

• People will work less but will have more

intermediaries and agents to lose their

money.

• Electronic commerce reduces the cost of • Unemployment levels in certain countries

jobs.

many goods and services; thus their con-

is high and is increasing.

sumption will increase, resulting in more buying and more jobs.

C H A P T E R 15 INTEGRATION, IMPACTS, AND THE FUTURE OF MANAGEMENT SUPPORT SYSTEMS

AIS IN ACTION 15.7

ROBOTS CLEAN TRAIN STATIONS IN JAPAN With growing amounts of rubbish to deal with at meters long. The railway and Sizuko spent 200 million

Japanese train stations and fewer people willing to work yen ($2 million) to develop the machines and are plan- as cleaners, officials have started turning the dirty work

ning to program them for other tasks, such as sweeping over to robots. The central Japan Railway Company and

and scrubbing. Similar robots are now cleaning many Sizuko Company, a Japanese machinery maker, have

major railway stations in Japan.

been using robots programmed to vacuum rubbish. A More than any other country, Japan has made railway official said that the robots, which are capable of

extensive use of robots in industry. It also uses them to doing the work of 10 people, each have been operating assist the blind and the elderly, as well as to diagnose two or three days a week at the Sizuko station in central

some illnesses.

Japan. The robots are about 1.5 meters wide and 1.2

level. The t w o e x t r e m e positions are massive unemployment and increased employment (or at least no change in the e m p l o y m e n t level). These positions have b e e n supported

by two N o b e l Prize winners, Wassily Leontief (1986), w h o supports the massive unem- ployment argument, and Herbert Simon, w h o takes the opposite position. Table 15.6

summarizes the main arguments of each side. The debate has b e e n going on for many years. It is true that many p e o p l e have lost their jobs to intelligent systems. But many n e w jobs and job categories have b e e n cre- ated.

The following is a list of newly created MSS-related jobs: terrorists fighting using

A l , biometric specialist, security expert, Al computer lawyer, BI headhunter, BI pro- ject manager, B I hardware-architecture specialist, B I v e n t u r e capitalist, B I user- training specialist, MSS tool d e v e l o p e r and vendor, industrial robotics supervisor/man- ager, k n o w l e d g e acquisition and m a i n t e n a n c e specialist, r o b o t i c s m a i n t e n a n c e engineer, system integrator, A N N software developer, software-agent d e v e l o p e r and vendor, chief k n o w l e d g e o f f i c e r ( C K O ) , M S S s y s t e m integrator, k n o w l e d g e m a i n - tainer, and intelligent agent builder.

T h e d e b a t e a b o u t h o w intelligent s y s t e m s will a f f e c t e m p l o y m e n t raises a f e w other questions: Is s o m e u n e m p l o y m e n t really socially desirable? ( P e o p l e could have m o r e leisure t i m e . ) S h o u l d the g o v e r n m e n t i n t e r v e n e m o r e i n the distribution o f

i n c o m e and in determination of the e m p l o y m e n t level? Can the "invisible hand" in the economy, which has worked so well in the past, continue to be successful in the future? Will Al m a k e most of us idle but wealthy? ( R o b o t s will do the work; p e o p l e will enjoy

life ( s e e Teresko, 2 0 0 2 and A I S i n A c t i o n 15.7). S h o u l d the i s s u e s o f i n c o m e and

e m p l o y m e n t be completely separated? The issue of h o w to handle u n e m p l o y m e n t both at the organizational and the national level is b e y o n d the scope of this b o o k .