INTELLIGENT SYSTEMS AND EMPLOYMENT LEVELS
15.12 INTELLIGENT SYSTEMS AND EMPLOYMENT LEVELS
T h e r e i s v e r y little i n f o r m a t i o n o n t h e r e l a t i o n s h i p o f M S S t o e m p l o y m e n t l e v e l s . However, MSS and especially intelligent systems have the potential to significantly
a f f e c t the productivity a n d e m p l o y m e n t o f m a n y t y p e s o f e m p l o y e e s a s w e l l t o c o m - p l e t e l y a u t o m a t e jobs. T h e material i n this s e c t i o n s u m m a r i z e s t h e p o s i t i o n s o f s o m e o f t h e world's t o p e x p e r t s w i t h regard t o t h e p o t e n t i a l i m p a c t o f i n t e l l i g e n t s y s t e m s o n productivity and u n e m p l o y m e n t .
A l t h o u g h the i m p a c t o f A l m a y t a k e d e c a d e s t o fully materialize, t h e r e i s a g r e e - m e n t a m o n g r e s e a r c h e r s that i n t e l l i g e n t s y s t e m s a r e i n c r e a s i n g t h e p r o d u c t i v i t y o f k n o w l e d g e workers. T e c h n o l o g y is getting less e x p e n s i v e and m o r e capable, and thus is bringing a b o u t substantial c h a n g e s i n j o b s and j o b c o n t e n t . H o w e v e r , researchers dis-
a g r e e a b o u t the p o t e n t i a l i m p a c t o f intelligent s y s t e m s o n t h e a g g r e g a t e e m p l o y m e n t
TABLE 15.6 Is Mass Unemployment Coming?
No Massive Unemployment • Benefit/cost advantage of computers
Massive Unemployment Will Come
• N e w occupations and jobs have always
been created by automation. • Less skillful employees are needed.
increases with time.
• There is much less unemployment in coun- ® Shifting displaced employees to services is
tries that use more automation.
• Work can be expanded to accommodate • Many employees lost their jobs in the
getting difficult.
everyone.
• Conversion to automation is slow, and the • Hidden unemployment exists in many
1990s.
economy can adjust.
• Many tasks cannot be fully automated. • Millions of help-desk employees will be
organizations.
• There will always be some areas where
people are better than machines. • Electronic commerce will cause millions of
replaced by intelligent agents.
• People will work less but will have more
intermediaries and agents to lose their
money.
• Electronic commerce reduces the cost of • Unemployment levels in certain countries
jobs.
many goods and services; thus their con-
is high and is increasing.
sumption will increase, resulting in more buying and more jobs.
C H A P T E R 15 INTEGRATION, IMPACTS, AND THE FUTURE OF MANAGEMENT SUPPORT SYSTEMS
AIS IN ACTION 15.7
ROBOTS CLEAN TRAIN STATIONS IN JAPAN With growing amounts of rubbish to deal with at meters long. The railway and Sizuko spent 200 million
Japanese train stations and fewer people willing to work yen ($2 million) to develop the machines and are plan- as cleaners, officials have started turning the dirty work
ning to program them for other tasks, such as sweeping over to robots. The central Japan Railway Company and
and scrubbing. Similar robots are now cleaning many Sizuko Company, a Japanese machinery maker, have
major railway stations in Japan.
been using robots programmed to vacuum rubbish. A More than any other country, Japan has made railway official said that the robots, which are capable of
extensive use of robots in industry. It also uses them to doing the work of 10 people, each have been operating assist the blind and the elderly, as well as to diagnose two or three days a week at the Sizuko station in central
some illnesses.
Japan. The robots are about 1.5 meters wide and 1.2
level. The t w o e x t r e m e positions are massive unemployment and increased employment (or at least no change in the e m p l o y m e n t level). These positions have b e e n supported
by two N o b e l Prize winners, Wassily Leontief (1986), w h o supports the massive unem- ployment argument, and Herbert Simon, w h o takes the opposite position. Table 15.6
summarizes the main arguments of each side. The debate has b e e n going on for many years. It is true that many p e o p l e have lost their jobs to intelligent systems. But many n e w jobs and job categories have b e e n cre- ated.
The following is a list of newly created MSS-related jobs: terrorists fighting using
A l , biometric specialist, security expert, Al computer lawyer, BI headhunter, BI pro- ject manager, B I hardware-architecture specialist, B I v e n t u r e capitalist, B I user- training specialist, MSS tool d e v e l o p e r and vendor, industrial robotics supervisor/man- ager, k n o w l e d g e acquisition and m a i n t e n a n c e specialist, r o b o t i c s m a i n t e n a n c e engineer, system integrator, A N N software developer, software-agent d e v e l o p e r and vendor, chief k n o w l e d g e o f f i c e r ( C K O ) , M S S s y s t e m integrator, k n o w l e d g e m a i n - tainer, and intelligent agent builder.
T h e d e b a t e a b o u t h o w intelligent s y s t e m s will a f f e c t e m p l o y m e n t raises a f e w other questions: Is s o m e u n e m p l o y m e n t really socially desirable? ( P e o p l e could have m o r e leisure t i m e . ) S h o u l d the g o v e r n m e n t i n t e r v e n e m o r e i n the distribution o f
i n c o m e and in determination of the e m p l o y m e n t level? Can the "invisible hand" in the economy, which has worked so well in the past, continue to be successful in the future? Will Al m a k e most of us idle but wealthy? ( R o b o t s will do the work; p e o p l e will enjoy
life ( s e e Teresko, 2 0 0 2 and A I S i n A c t i o n 15.7). S h o u l d the i s s u e s o f i n c o m e and
e m p l o y m e n t be completely separated? The issue of h o w to handle u n e m p l o y m e n t both at the organizational and the national level is b e y o n d the scope of this b o o k .