Analisis Determinan Pertumbuhan Ekonomi di Kota Medan Provinsi Sumatera Utara
Lampiran 1 : Data Penelitian
Tahun
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
PDRB
PDRB
Laju Pertumbuhan PDRB
PMA
PMDN
Angkatan Kerja
HB (Milyar Rp) HK Thn 2000
HK Thn 2000 (%)
Realisasi (Juta Rp) Realisasi (Juta Rp) yg Bekerja (jiwa) LN ∆Y
21.806,48
19.628,08
4,58%
62.650,00
119.250,00
351.635,00 -3,08
25.005,49
20.652,67
5,22%
111.760,00
122.100,00
406.215,00 -2,95
28.671,30
21.829,87
5,70%
276.340,00
201.760,00
450.426,00 -2,86
33.115,35
23.421,27
7,29%
387.670,00
297.120,00
632.380,00 -2,61
42.792,45
25.056,07
6,98%
423.490,00
235.890,00
819.161,00 -2,66
48.849,95
27.000,43
7,76%
587.900,00
473.340,00
755.882,00 -2,56
55.542,51
29.101,06
7,78%
691.450,00
504.450,00
729.892,00 -2,55
65.277,87
31.106,12
6,89%
783.760,00
593.870,00
833.832,00 -2,68
72.630,21
33.143,57
6,55%
467.350,00
890.050,00
824.250,00 -2,73
90.615,46
35.516,65
7,16%
689.344,02
511.309,06
866.815,00 -2,63
104.059,43
38.283,40
7,79%
861.081,64
332.364,50
902.097,00 -2,55
117.487,21
41.215,91
7,66%
853.429,63
323.289,54
851.642,00 -2,57
LN PMA LN PMDN
11,04
11,68
11,62
11,71
12,52
12,21
12,86
12,6
12,95
12,37
13,28
13,06
13,44
13,13
13,57
13,29
13,05
13,69
13,44
13,14
13,66
12,71
13,65
12,68
LN Angkatan Kerja Unstandardized
yang Bekerja
Residual
12,77
-0,01088
12,91
-0,00089
13,01
-0,06371
13,35
0,10658
13,61
0,00222
13,53
0,08202
13,5
0,06893
13,63
-0,09104
13,62
-0,02547
13,67
-0,02826
13,71
-0,01308
13,65
-0,02641
85
Universitas Sumatera Utara
Lampiran 2. Hasil Regresi
Descriptive Statistics
N
Range
Minimum
Maximum
Sum
Statistic
Statistic
Statistic
Statistic
Statistic
Statistic
Std. Error
Mean
Std. Deviation
Variance
Statistic
Statistic
Skewness
Statistic
Kurtosis
Std. Error
Statistic
Std. Error
PDRB_HB (Milyar
Rp)
PDRB_HK 2000
(Milyar Rp)
Laju Pertumbuhan
PDRB_HK (y)
Realisasi PMA (x1)
12
95680,73
21806,48
117487,21
705853,71
58821,1425
9203,89653
31883,23283
1016540535,581
,642
,637
-,737
1,232
12
21942,43
19628,08
41570,51
348554,42
29046,2013
2084,95589
7222,49906
52164492,719
,360
,637
-1,039
1,232
12
3,21
4,58
7,79
81,36
6,7800
,31023
1,07468
1,155
-1,043
,637
,026
1,232
12
798431,64
62650,00
861081,64
6196225,29
516352,1075
79028,24161
273761,85940
74945555661,863
-,357
,637
-1,036
1,232
Realisasi PMDN
(x2)
Angkatan Kerja yg
Bekerja (x3)
LN_Y
12
770800,00
119250,00
890050,00
4604793,10
383732,7583
64347,59294
222906,60063
49687352604,950
,955
,637
1,037
1,232
12
550462,00
351635,00
902097,00
8424227,00
702018,9167
56253,55282
194868,02319
37973546460,265
-,935
,637
-,720
1,232
12
,53
-3,08
-2,55
-32,43
-2,7025
,04999
,17316
,030
-1,246
,637
,626
1,232
LN_PMA
12
2,62
11,04
13,66
155,08
12,9233
,23962
,83006
,689
-1,446
,637
1,410
1,232
LN_PMDN
12
2,01
11,68
13,69
152,27
12,6892
,17869
,61901
,383
-,305
,637
-,544
1,232
LN_Yg Bekerja
12
,94
12,77
13,71
160,96
13,4133
,09508
,32936
,108
-1,144
,637
-,245
1,232
Unstandardized
Residual
Valid N (listwise)
12
,19762
-,09104
,10658
,00000
,0000000
,01688280
,05848372
,003
,554
,637
-,213
1,232
12
86
Universitas Sumatera Utara
Variables Entered/Removedb
Variables
Variables
Entered
Removed
Model
1
LN_Yg Bekerja,
Method
.
Enter
LN_PMDN,
LN_PMA
a. All requested variables entered.
b. Dependent Variable: LN_Y
Model Summaryb
Change Statistics
Model
R
R
Adjusted
Std. Error of
R Square
F
df
df
Sig. F
Durbin-
Square
R Square
the Estimate
Change
Change
1
2
Change
Watson
,941a
1
,886
,843
,06858
,886
20,710
3
8
,000
2,147
a. Predictors: (Constant), LN_Yg Bekerja, LN_PMDN, LN_PMA
b. Dependent Variable: LN_Y
Coefficientsa
Unstandardized
Standardized
Coefficients
Coefficients
Model
B
1
-5,883
1,587
,184
,072
-,047
,104
(Constant)
LN_PMA
LN_PMDN
LN_Yg Bekerja
Std. Error
Collinearity Statistics
t
Beta
Sig.
Tolerance
VIF
-3,708
,006
,883
2,562
,034
,120
8,334
,058
-,167
-,810
,442
,334
2,994
,188
,198
,552
,596
,111
8,978
a. Dependent Variable: LN_Y
Collinearity Diagnosticsa
Variance Proportions
Model
Dimension
Eigenvalue
Condition Index
1
1
3,997
1,000
,00
,00
,00
,00
2
,002
44,447
,04
,10
,02
,00
3
,001
84,951
,01
,19
,92
,00
4
4,173E-5
309,506
,96
,71
,06
,99
(Constant)
LN_PMA
LN_PMDN
LN_Yg Bekerja
a. Dependent Variable: LN_Y
87
Universitas Sumatera Utara
Residuals Statisticsa
Minimum
Maximum
Mean
Std. Deviation
N
Predicted Value
-3,0691
-2,5369
-2,7025
,16298
12
Residual
-,09104
,10658
,00000
,05848
12
Std. Predicted Value
-2,249
1,016
,000
1,000
12
Std. Residual
-1,328
1,554
,000
,853
12
a. Dependent Variable: LN_Y
Runs Test
Unstandardized
Residual
a
Test Value
-,01198
Cases < Test Value
6
Cases >= Test Value
6
Total Cases
12
Number of Runs
4
Z
-1,514
Asymp. Sig. (2-tailed)
,130
a. Median
DESCRIPTIVES VARIABLES=PDRB_HB PDRB_HK Laju_PDRB_HK PMA PMDN
Yg_Bekerja LN_Y LN_x1 LN_x2 LN_x3 RES_1
/STATISTICS=MEAN SUM STDDEV VARIANCE RANGE MIN MAX SE.MEAN KURTOSIS
SKEWNESS.
Estimated Distribution Parameters
Unstandardized
LN_Y
Normal Distribution
Location
Scale
LN_PMA
LN_PMDN
LN_Yg Bekerja
Residual
-2,7025000
12,9233333
12,6891667
13,4133333
,0000000
,17315915
,83006389
,61900886
,32936118
,05848372
The cases are unweighted.
Case Processing Summary
LN_Y
Series or Sequence Length
LN_Yg
Unstandardized
Bekerja
Residual
LN_PMA
LN_PMDN
12
12
12
12
12
Number of Missing Values
User-Missing
0
0
0
0
0
in the Plot
System-Missing
0
0
0
0
0
The cases are unweighted.
88
Universitas Sumatera Utara
Correlations
Unstandardized
Residual
Pearson Correlation
Sig. (1-tailed)
N
Unstandardized Residual
LN_PMA
LN_PMDN
LN_Yg Bekerja
1,000
,000
,000
,000
LN_PMA
,000
1,000
,793
,936
LN_PMDN
,000
,793
1,000
,810
LN_Yg Bekerja
,000
,936
,810
1,000
,500
,500
,500
,001
,000
Unstandardized Residual
.
LN_PMA
,500 .
LN_PMDN
,500
,001 .
LN_Yg Bekerja
,500
,000
Unstandardized Residual
12
12
12
12
LN_PMA
12
12
12
12
LN_PMDN
12
12
12
12
LN_Yg Bekerja
12
12
12
12
,001
,001 .
89
Universitas Sumatera Utara
90
Universitas Sumatera Utara
91
Universitas Sumatera Utara
Tahun
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
PDRB
PDRB
Laju Pertumbuhan PDRB
PMA
PMDN
Angkatan Kerja
HB (Milyar Rp) HK Thn 2000
HK Thn 2000 (%)
Realisasi (Juta Rp) Realisasi (Juta Rp) yg Bekerja (jiwa) LN ∆Y
21.806,48
19.628,08
4,58%
62.650,00
119.250,00
351.635,00 -3,08
25.005,49
20.652,67
5,22%
111.760,00
122.100,00
406.215,00 -2,95
28.671,30
21.829,87
5,70%
276.340,00
201.760,00
450.426,00 -2,86
33.115,35
23.421,27
7,29%
387.670,00
297.120,00
632.380,00 -2,61
42.792,45
25.056,07
6,98%
423.490,00
235.890,00
819.161,00 -2,66
48.849,95
27.000,43
7,76%
587.900,00
473.340,00
755.882,00 -2,56
55.542,51
29.101,06
7,78%
691.450,00
504.450,00
729.892,00 -2,55
65.277,87
31.106,12
6,89%
783.760,00
593.870,00
833.832,00 -2,68
72.630,21
33.143,57
6,55%
467.350,00
890.050,00
824.250,00 -2,73
90.615,46
35.516,65
7,16%
689.344,02
511.309,06
866.815,00 -2,63
104.059,43
38.283,40
7,79%
861.081,64
332.364,50
902.097,00 -2,55
117.487,21
41.215,91
7,66%
853.429,63
323.289,54
851.642,00 -2,57
LN PMA LN PMDN
11,04
11,68
11,62
11,71
12,52
12,21
12,86
12,6
12,95
12,37
13,28
13,06
13,44
13,13
13,57
13,29
13,05
13,69
13,44
13,14
13,66
12,71
13,65
12,68
LN Angkatan Kerja Unstandardized
yang Bekerja
Residual
12,77
-0,01088
12,91
-0,00089
13,01
-0,06371
13,35
0,10658
13,61
0,00222
13,53
0,08202
13,5
0,06893
13,63
-0,09104
13,62
-0,02547
13,67
-0,02826
13,71
-0,01308
13,65
-0,02641
85
Universitas Sumatera Utara
Lampiran 2. Hasil Regresi
Descriptive Statistics
N
Range
Minimum
Maximum
Sum
Statistic
Statistic
Statistic
Statistic
Statistic
Statistic
Std. Error
Mean
Std. Deviation
Variance
Statistic
Statistic
Skewness
Statistic
Kurtosis
Std. Error
Statistic
Std. Error
PDRB_HB (Milyar
Rp)
PDRB_HK 2000
(Milyar Rp)
Laju Pertumbuhan
PDRB_HK (y)
Realisasi PMA (x1)
12
95680,73
21806,48
117487,21
705853,71
58821,1425
9203,89653
31883,23283
1016540535,581
,642
,637
-,737
1,232
12
21942,43
19628,08
41570,51
348554,42
29046,2013
2084,95589
7222,49906
52164492,719
,360
,637
-1,039
1,232
12
3,21
4,58
7,79
81,36
6,7800
,31023
1,07468
1,155
-1,043
,637
,026
1,232
12
798431,64
62650,00
861081,64
6196225,29
516352,1075
79028,24161
273761,85940
74945555661,863
-,357
,637
-1,036
1,232
Realisasi PMDN
(x2)
Angkatan Kerja yg
Bekerja (x3)
LN_Y
12
770800,00
119250,00
890050,00
4604793,10
383732,7583
64347,59294
222906,60063
49687352604,950
,955
,637
1,037
1,232
12
550462,00
351635,00
902097,00
8424227,00
702018,9167
56253,55282
194868,02319
37973546460,265
-,935
,637
-,720
1,232
12
,53
-3,08
-2,55
-32,43
-2,7025
,04999
,17316
,030
-1,246
,637
,626
1,232
LN_PMA
12
2,62
11,04
13,66
155,08
12,9233
,23962
,83006
,689
-1,446
,637
1,410
1,232
LN_PMDN
12
2,01
11,68
13,69
152,27
12,6892
,17869
,61901
,383
-,305
,637
-,544
1,232
LN_Yg Bekerja
12
,94
12,77
13,71
160,96
13,4133
,09508
,32936
,108
-1,144
,637
-,245
1,232
Unstandardized
Residual
Valid N (listwise)
12
,19762
-,09104
,10658
,00000
,0000000
,01688280
,05848372
,003
,554
,637
-,213
1,232
12
86
Universitas Sumatera Utara
Variables Entered/Removedb
Variables
Variables
Entered
Removed
Model
1
LN_Yg Bekerja,
Method
.
Enter
LN_PMDN,
LN_PMA
a. All requested variables entered.
b. Dependent Variable: LN_Y
Model Summaryb
Change Statistics
Model
R
R
Adjusted
Std. Error of
R Square
F
df
df
Sig. F
Durbin-
Square
R Square
the Estimate
Change
Change
1
2
Change
Watson
,941a
1
,886
,843
,06858
,886
20,710
3
8
,000
2,147
a. Predictors: (Constant), LN_Yg Bekerja, LN_PMDN, LN_PMA
b. Dependent Variable: LN_Y
Coefficientsa
Unstandardized
Standardized
Coefficients
Coefficients
Model
B
1
-5,883
1,587
,184
,072
-,047
,104
(Constant)
LN_PMA
LN_PMDN
LN_Yg Bekerja
Std. Error
Collinearity Statistics
t
Beta
Sig.
Tolerance
VIF
-3,708
,006
,883
2,562
,034
,120
8,334
,058
-,167
-,810
,442
,334
2,994
,188
,198
,552
,596
,111
8,978
a. Dependent Variable: LN_Y
Collinearity Diagnosticsa
Variance Proportions
Model
Dimension
Eigenvalue
Condition Index
1
1
3,997
1,000
,00
,00
,00
,00
2
,002
44,447
,04
,10
,02
,00
3
,001
84,951
,01
,19
,92
,00
4
4,173E-5
309,506
,96
,71
,06
,99
(Constant)
LN_PMA
LN_PMDN
LN_Yg Bekerja
a. Dependent Variable: LN_Y
87
Universitas Sumatera Utara
Residuals Statisticsa
Minimum
Maximum
Mean
Std. Deviation
N
Predicted Value
-3,0691
-2,5369
-2,7025
,16298
12
Residual
-,09104
,10658
,00000
,05848
12
Std. Predicted Value
-2,249
1,016
,000
1,000
12
Std. Residual
-1,328
1,554
,000
,853
12
a. Dependent Variable: LN_Y
Runs Test
Unstandardized
Residual
a
Test Value
-,01198
Cases < Test Value
6
Cases >= Test Value
6
Total Cases
12
Number of Runs
4
Z
-1,514
Asymp. Sig. (2-tailed)
,130
a. Median
DESCRIPTIVES VARIABLES=PDRB_HB PDRB_HK Laju_PDRB_HK PMA PMDN
Yg_Bekerja LN_Y LN_x1 LN_x2 LN_x3 RES_1
/STATISTICS=MEAN SUM STDDEV VARIANCE RANGE MIN MAX SE.MEAN KURTOSIS
SKEWNESS.
Estimated Distribution Parameters
Unstandardized
LN_Y
Normal Distribution
Location
Scale
LN_PMA
LN_PMDN
LN_Yg Bekerja
Residual
-2,7025000
12,9233333
12,6891667
13,4133333
,0000000
,17315915
,83006389
,61900886
,32936118
,05848372
The cases are unweighted.
Case Processing Summary
LN_Y
Series or Sequence Length
LN_Yg
Unstandardized
Bekerja
Residual
LN_PMA
LN_PMDN
12
12
12
12
12
Number of Missing Values
User-Missing
0
0
0
0
0
in the Plot
System-Missing
0
0
0
0
0
The cases are unweighted.
88
Universitas Sumatera Utara
Correlations
Unstandardized
Residual
Pearson Correlation
Sig. (1-tailed)
N
Unstandardized Residual
LN_PMA
LN_PMDN
LN_Yg Bekerja
1,000
,000
,000
,000
LN_PMA
,000
1,000
,793
,936
LN_PMDN
,000
,793
1,000
,810
LN_Yg Bekerja
,000
,936
,810
1,000
,500
,500
,500
,001
,000
Unstandardized Residual
.
LN_PMA
,500 .
LN_PMDN
,500
,001 .
LN_Yg Bekerja
,500
,000
Unstandardized Residual
12
12
12
12
LN_PMA
12
12
12
12
LN_PMDN
12
12
12
12
LN_Yg Bekerja
12
12
12
12
,001
,001 .
89
Universitas Sumatera Utara
90
Universitas Sumatera Utara
91
Universitas Sumatera Utara