Peramalan Jumlah Pelanggan Kartu Kredit di PT. Bank Permata Cabang Medan dengan Menggunakan Metode Smoothing Eksponensial Linier Satu Parameter dari Brown
Lampiran.1
Tabel Pemulusan Eksponensial Linier Satu Parameter Dari Brown Menggunakan α = 0,2 Pada Data Jumlah Pelanggan
Kartu Kredit
Bulan
April
Periode
1
102
102
102
Mei
2
178
117.2
105.04
129.36
3.04
Juni
3
230
139.76
111.984
167.536
6.944
132.4
97.6
9525.76
Juli
4
305
172.808
124.1488
221.4672
12.1648
174.48
130.52
17035.4704
Agustus
5
399
218.0464
142.92832
293.16448
18.77952
233.632
165.368
27346.57542
September
6
462
266.83712
167.71008
365.96416
24.78176
311.944
150.056
22516.80314
Oktober
7
537
320.869696
30.6319232
390.74592
146.25408
21390.25592
November
8
580
372.6957568 233.2127539 512.1787597 34.87075072
474.029312
105.970688
11229.78672
Desember
9
632
424.5566054 271.4815242 577.6316867
38.2687703
547.0495104
84.9504896
7216.585683
Januari
10
721
483.8452844 313.9542762 653.7362925 42.47275203
615.900457
105.099543
11045.91395
Februari
11
701
527.2762275 356.6186665 697.9337885 42.66439025 696.2090445
4.79095552
22.95325479
Maret
12
789
579.620982
401.2191296 758.0228344
44.6004631
740.5981787 48.40182129 2342.736304
April
13
828
629.2967856 446.8346608 811.7589104
45.6155312
802.6232975 25.37670253 643.9770311
198.3420032 443.3973888
Universitas Sumatera Utara
Mei
14
1090
721.4374285 501.7552143 941.1196426 54.92055354 857.3744416 232.6255584 54114.65043
Juni
15
1055
788.1499428
Juli
16
1128
856.1199542 618.4513189
Agustus
17
1161
917.0959634 678.1802478 1156.011679
September
18
1207
975.0767707 737.5595524 1212.593989 59.37930459 1215.740608
-8.7406079
Oktober
19
1253
1030.661417 796.1799252 1265.142908 58.62037284 1271.973294
-18.9732936 359.9858716
November
20
1329
1090.329133 855.0097668
Desember
21
1359
1144.063307 912.8204748 1375.306138 57.81070796 1384.478341
-25.4783413 649.1458757
Januari
22
1425
1200.250645 970.3065089 1430.194782
-8.11684639
Februari
23
1267
1213.600516
1408.235722 48.65880147 1487.680816
-220.680816 48700.02246
Maret
24
1308
1232.480413 1061.668331 1403.292495 42.70302053 1456.894524
-148.894524 22169.57915
April
25
1316
1249.18433
37.5031999
1445.995516
-129.995516 16898.83408
Mei
26
1350
1269.347464 1133.206717 1405.488211 34.03518671
1436.70033
-86.7003299 7516.947205
Juni
27
1473
1310.077971 1168.580968 1451.574975 35.37425079 1439.523398 33.47660216 1120.682892
Juli
28
1597
1367.462377
559.03416
1018.96531
1099.171531
1208.35725
1017.265726 57.27894569 996.0401961 58.95980385
1093.78859
1325.6485
1399.19713
3476.25847
59.41715884 1074.544671 53.45532878 2857.472174
59.7289289
1153.205748 7.794251576 60.75035762
76.39822638
58.82984161 1323.763281 5.236719228 27.42322827
57.4860341
1433.116846
65.8831954
1526.567504 39.77628178 1486.949225 110.0507746 12111.17299
Universitas Sumatera Utara
29
1623
1418.569902
September
30
1636
1462.055921 1292.731009 1631.380834
42.3312282
1628.782553 7.217446598 52.09153539
Oktober
31
1641
1497.844737 1333.753754
41.0227457
1673.712062
-32.7120624 1070.079025
November
32
1700
1538.27579
1374.658161 1701.893418 40.90440708 1702.958466
-2.95846563 8.752518857
Desember
33
1780
1586.620632 1417.050655 1756.190608 42.39249408 1742.797825 37.20217492 1384.001819
Januari
34
1832
1635.696505 1460.779825 1810.613185 43.72916999 1798.583102 33.41689787 1116.689063
Februari
35
1705
1649.557204 1498.535301 1800.579107 37.75547578 1854.342355
Maret
36
2050
1729.645763 1544.757394 1914.534133 46.22209245 1838.334583 211.6654168 44802.24867
April
37
2157
1815.116611 1598.829237 2031.403984 54.07184342 1960.756226 196.2437743 38511.61895
41906
412980.5717
Jumlah
1250.39978
1586.740023 42.04253034 1566.343786 56.65621396
Agustus
1661.93572
-149.342355
3209.92658
22303.1391
Universitas Sumatera Utara
Lampiran.2
Tabel Pemulusan Eksponensial Linier Satu Parameter Dari Brown Menggunakan α = 0,3 Pada Data Jumlah Pelanggan
Kartu Kredit
Bulan
April
Periode
1
102
102
102
Mei
2
178
124.8
108.84
140.76
6.84
Juni
3
230
156.36
123.096
189.624
14.256
147.6
82.4
156.36
Juli
4
305
200.952
146.4528
255.4512
23.3568
203.88
101.12
200.952
Agustus
5
399
260.3664
180.62688
340.10592
34.17408
278.808
120.192
260.3664
September
6
462
320.85648
222.69576
419.0172
42.06888
374.28
87.72
320.85648
Oktober
7
537
385.699536
48.9011328
461.08608
75.91392
385.699536
November
8
580
443.9896752 323.3147275 564.6646229 51.71783472
548.703312
31.296688
443.9896752
Desember
9
632
500.3927726 376.4381411 624.3474042 53.12341354 616.3824576
15.6175424
500.3927726
Januari
10
721
566.5749408
Februari
11
701
606.9024586 485.5061643 728.2987529 52.02698328 756.7117406
Maret
12
789
661.531721
April
13
828
711.4722047 590.2613433 832.6830661 51.94751202 837.5572778
102
271.5968928 499.8021792
433.479181
124.8
699.6707007 57.04103994 677.4708178 43.52918224 566.5749408
-55.7117406 606.9024586
538.3138313 784.7496107 52.80766702 780.3257362 8.674263806
661.531721
-9.55727776 711.4722047
Universitas Sumatera Utara
Mei
14
1090
825.0305433 660.6921033 989.3689833 70.43075999 884.6305781 205.3694219 825.0305433
Juni
15
1055
894.0213803 730.6908864 1057.351874
Juli
16
1128
964.2149662 800.7481104 1127.681822 70.05722394 1127.350657 0.649342697 964.2149662
Agustus
17
1161
1023.250476 867.4988202 1179.002133
September
18
1207
1078.375333 930.7617741 1225.988893 63.26295399 1245.752842
-38.7528423 1078.375333
Oktober
19
1253
1130.762733 990.7620619 1270.763405 60.00028778 1289.251847
-36.2518467 1130.762733
November
20
1329
1190.233913 1050.603617 1329.864209 59.84155544 1330.763693
-1.76369268 1190.233913
Desember
21
1359
1240.863739 1107.681654 1374.045825
1389.705765
-30.7057649 1240.863739
Januari
22
1425
1296.104618 1164.208543 1428.000692 56.52688908 1431.123861
-6.12386138 1296.104618
Februari
23
1267
1287.373232
1373.588515 36.94940677 1484.527581
-217.527581 1287.373232
Maret
24
1308
1293.561263 1228.878944 1358.243582 27.72099384 1410.537922
-102.537922 1293.561263
April
25
1316
1300.292884 1250.303126 1350.282642 21.42418205 1385.964575
-69.9645754 1300.292884
Mei
26
1350
1315.205019 1269.773694 1360.636344 19.47056789 1371.706824
-21.706824
Juni
27
1473
1362.543513 1297.604639 1427.482387 27.83094584 1380.106912 92.89308835 1362.543513
Juli
28
1597
1432.880459 1338.187385 1527.573533 40.58274591 1455.313333 141.6866674 1432.880459
1201.15795
69.9987831
66.7507098
57.0780366
1059.799743
1197.739046
-4.79974327 894.0213803
-36.739046
1023.250476
1315.205019
Universitas Sumatera Utara
Agustus
29
1623
1489.916321 1383.706066 1596.126577 45.51868082 1568.156279 54.84372114 1489.916321
September
30
1636
1533.741425 1428.716674 1638.766176 45.01060764 1641.645257
-5.64525746 1533.741425
Oktober
31
1641
1565.918997 1469.877371 1661.960624
41.1606971
1683.776784
-42.7767838 1565.918997
November
32
1700
1606.143298 1510.757149 1701.529447
40.8797782
1703.121321
-3.12132116 1606.143298
Desember
33
1780
1658.300309 1555.020097 1761.580521
44.2629479
1742.409226 37.59077443 1658.300309
Januari
34
1832
1710.410216 1601.637133
46.61703574 1805.843468 26.15653157 1710.410216
Februari
35
1705
1708.787151 1633.782138 1783.792164 32.14500556 1865.800335
-160.800335 1708.787151
Maret
36
2050
1811.151006 1686.992799 1935.309213 53.21066028
234.0628302 1811.151006
April
37
2157
1914.905704
Jumlah
41906
1755.36667
1819.1833
1815.93717
2074.444738 68.37387166 1988.519874 168.4801265 1914.905704
306563.6448
Universitas Sumatera Utara
Lampiran.3
Tabel Pemulusan Eksponensial Linier Satu Parameter Dari Brown Menggunakan α = 0,4 Pada Data Jumlah Pelanggan
Kartu Kredit
Bulan
April
Periode
1
102
102
102
Mei
2
178
132.4
114.16
150.64
12.16
Juni
3
230
171.44
137.072
205.808
22.912
162.8
67.2
4515.84
Juli
4
305
224.864
172.1888
277.5392
35.1168
228.72
76.28
5818.6384
Agustus
5
399
294.5184
221.12064
367.91616
48.93184
312.656
86.344
7455.286336
September
6
462
361.51104
277.2768
445.74528
56.15616
416.848
45.152
2038.703104
Oktober
7
537
431.706624
61.7719296
501.90144
35.09856
1231.908914
November
8
580
491.0239744 399.8388275 582.2091213 60.79009792
586.136448
-6.136448
37.65599406
Desember
9
632
547.4143846 458.8690504 635.9597189 59.03022285 642.9992192
-10.9992192
120.982823
Januari
10
721
616.8486308 522.0608825
711.636379
63.19183217 694.9899418 26.01005824 676.5231296
Februari
11
701
650.5091785 573.4402009
727.578156
51.37931837 774.8282112
Maret
12
789
705.9055071 626.4263234 785.3846908 52.98612247 778.9574744 10.04252559 100.8523203
April
13
828
754.7433042 677.7531157 831.7334928 51.32679235 838.3708133
339.0487296 524.3645184
-73.8282112 5450.604769
-10.3708133 107.5537676
Universitas Sumatera Utara
Mei
14
1090
888.8459825 762.1902625 1015.501703 84.43714673 883.0602851 206.9397149 42824.04559
Juni
15
1055
955.3075895 839.4371933 1071.177986 77.24693083 1099.938849
-44.9388494 2019.500183
Juli
16
1128
1024.384554 913.4161375
73.97894417 1148.424917
-20.4249166 417.1772183
Agustus
17
1161
1079.030732 979.6619754 1178.399489 66.24583791 1209.331914
-48.3319142 2335.973925
September
18
1207
1130.218439 1039.884561 1220.552318 60.22258559 1244.645327
-37.645327
Oktober
19
1253
1179.331064 1095.663162 1262.998965 55.77860106 1280.774903
-27.7749033 771.4452539
November
20
1329
1239.198638 1153.077352 1325.319924 57.41419046 1318.777566 10.22243375 104.4981518
Desember
21
1359
1287.119183 1206.694085 1367.544281 53.61673217 1382.734114
Januari
22
1425
1342.27151
Februari
23
1267
1312.162906 1281.420195 1342.905617 20.49514046 1477.848935
-210.848935 44457.27332
Maret
24
1308
1310.497744 1293.051214 1327.944273 11.63101934 1363.400757
-55.400757
April
25
1316
1312.698646 1300.910187 1324.487105 7.858972645 1339.575292
-23.5752919 555.7943866
Mei
26
1350
1327.619188 1311.593787 1343.644588 10.68360021 1332.346078 17.65392228
Juni
27
1473
1385.771513 1341.264877 1430.278148
Juli
28
1597
1470.262908 1392.864089 1547.661726 51.59921204 1459.949238 137.0507622 18782.91141
1135.35297
-23.7341143
1417.170645
563.308182
1260.925055 1423.617965 54.23097004 1421.161013 3.838986679 14.73781872
29.6710901
3069.243877
311.660972
1354.328188 118.6718118 14082.99892
Universitas Sumatera Utara
Agustus
29
1623
1531.357745 1448.261552 1614.453938 55.39746202 1599.260938 23.73906233 563.5430803
September
30
1636
1573.214647
Oktober
31
1641
1600.328788 1539.077189 1661.580387 40.83439938 1698.167742
-57.1677419 3268.150718
November
32
1700
1640.197273 1579.525223 1700.869323 40.44803354 1702.414786
-2.41478647 5.831193703
Desember
33
1780
1696.118364 1626.162479 1766.074248 46.63725647 1741.317357 38.68264333 1496.346895
Januari
34
1832
1750.471018 1675.885895 1825.056142 49.72341569 1812.711505 19.28849513 372.0460442
Februari
35
1705
1732.282611 1698.444581 1766.120641
Maret
36
2050
1859.369567 1762.814575 1955.924558 64.36999415 1788.679327 261.3206728 68288.49404
April
37
2157
1978.42174
Jumlah
41906
1498.24279
1648.186504 49.98123808
22.5586865
1669.8514
-33.8513996 1145.917253
1874.779557
-169.779557 28825.09813
1849.057441 2107.786039 86.24286584 2020.294552 136.7054481 18688.37953
281936.0963
Universitas Sumatera Utara
Lampiran.4
Tabel Pemulusan Eksponensial Linier Satu Parameter Dari Brown Menggunakan α = 0,5 Pada Data Jumlah Pelanggan
Kartu Kredit
Bulan
April
Periode
1
102
102
102
Mei
2
178
140
121
159
19
Juni
3
230
185
153
217
32
178
52
2704
Juli
4
305
245
199
291
46
249
56
3136
Agustus
5
399
322
260.5
383.5
61.5
337
62
3844
September
6
462
392
326.25
457.75
65.75
445
17
289
Oktober
7
537
464.5
395.375
533.625
69.125
523.5
13.5
182.25
November
8
580
522.25
458.8125
585.6875
63.4375
602.75
-22.75
517.5625
Desember
9
632
577.125
517.96875
636.28125
59.15625
649.125
-17.125
293.265625
Januari
10
721
649.0625
583.515625
714.609375
65.546875
695.4375
25.5625
653.4414063
Februari
11
701
675.03125
629.2734375 720.7890625
45.7578125
780.15625
-79.15625
6265.711914
Maret
12
789
732.015625
680.6445313 783.3867188 51.37109375
766.546875
22.453125
504.1428223
April
13
828
780.0078125 730.3261719 829.6894531 49.68164063 834.7578125
-6.7578125
45.66802979
Universitas Sumatera Utara
Mei
14
1090
935.0039063 832.6650391 1037.342773 102.3388672 879.3710938 210.6289063 44364.53615
Juni
15
1055
995.0019531 913.8334961
81.16845703 1139.681641
-84.6816406 7170.980259
Juli
16
1128
1061.500977 987.6672363 1135.334717 73.83374023 1157.338867
-29.3388672 860.7691278
Agustus
17
1161
1111.250488 1049.458862 1173.042114 61.79162598 1209.168457
-48.168457
September
18
1207
1159.125244 1104.292053 1213.958435 54.83319092
-27.8337402 774.7170954
Oktober
19
1253
1206.062622 1155.177338 1256.947906 50.88528442 1268.791626
November
20
1329
1267.531311 1211.354324 1323.708298 56.17698669 1307.833191 21.16680908 448.0338067
Desember
21
1359
1313.265656
Januari
22
1425
1369.132828 1315.721409 1422.544247 53.41141891 1415.176987 9.823013306
Februari
23
1267
1318.066414 1316.893911 1319.238916 1.172502518 1475.955666
-208.955666 43662.47018
Maret
24
1308
1313.033207 1314.963559 1311.102855 1.930352211 1320.411419
-12.4114189 154.0433195
April
25
1316
1314.516603 1314.740081 1314.293126
Mei
26
1350
1332.258302 1323.499192 1341.017412 8.759110212 1314.069648 35.93035221
Juni
27
1473
1402.629151 1363.064171 1442.194131 39.56497967 1349.776522 123.2234778 15184.02549
Juli
28
1597
1499.814575 1431.439373 1568.189778 68.37520212
1262.30999
1076.17041
1234.83374
1364.221321 50.95566559 1379.885284
-15.791626
2320.200253
249.375451
-20.8852844 436.1951055
96.4915904
-0.22347784 1309.172503 6.827497482 46.61472187
1481.75911
1290.99021
115.2408898 13280.46268
Universitas Sumatera Utara
Agustus
29
1623
1561.407288 1496.423331 1626.391245
September
30
1636
1598.703644 1547.563487 1649.843801 51.14015667 1691.375202
-55.3752021
Oktober
31
1641
1619.851822 1583.707655 1655.995989 36.14416737 1700.983957
-59.9839572 3598.075122
November
32
1700
1659.925911 1621.816783 1698.035039
Desember
33
1780
1719.962955 1670.889869 1769.036042 49.07308636 1736.144167 43.85583263 1923.334056
Januari
34
1832
1775.981478 1723.435673 1828.527282 52.54580431 1818.109128
13.8908718
Februari
35
1705
1740.490739 1731.963206 1749.018272
-176.073086 31001.73174
Maret
36
2050
1895.245369 1813.604288 1976.886451 81.64108164 1757.545804 292.4541957 85529.45658
April
37
2157
2026.122685 1919.863486 2132.381883 106.2591985 2058.527533 98.47246728 9696.826812
Jumlah
41906
64.9839572
38.1091282
8.52753272
1636.56498
-13.5649797 184.0086735
3066.41301
1692.140157 7.859843329 61.77713715
1881.073086
192.9563193
284029.5272
Universitas Sumatera Utara
Lampiran.5
Tabel Pemulusan Eksponensial Linier Satu Parameter Dari Brown Menggunakan α = 0,6 Pada Data Jumlah Pelanggan
Kartu Kredit
Bulan
April
Periode
1
102
102
102
Mei
2
178
147.6
129.36
165.84
27.36
Juni
3
230
197.04
169.968
224.112
40.608
193.2
36.8
1354.24
Juli
4
305
261.816
225.0768
298.5552
55.1088
264.72
40.28
1622.4784
Agustus
5
399
344.1264
296.50656
391.74624
71.42976
353.664
45.336
2055.352896
September
6
462
414.85056
367.51296
462.18816
71.0064
463.176
-1.176
1.382976
Oktober
7
537
488.140224
72.3763584
533.19456
3.80544
14.48137359
November
8
580
543.2560896 501.9093811 584.6027981 62.02006272
608.767488
-28.767488
827.5683658
Desember
9
632
596.5024358
634.3396577 56.75583283 646.6228608
-14.6228608
213.828058
Januari
10
721
671.2009743 626.1866702 716.2152785 67.52145623 691.0954906 29.90450944 894.2796848
Februari
11
701
689.0803897 663.9229019 714.2378776 37.73623173 783.7367347
Maret
12
789
749.0321559 714.9884543 783.0758575 51.06555239 751.9741093 37.02589071 1370.916583
April
13
828
796.4128624 763.8430991 828.9826256 48.85464483 834.1414099
439.8893184 536.3911296
558.665214
-82.7367347 6845.367272
-6.14140987 37.71691524
Universitas Sumatera Utara
Mei
14
1090
972.5651449 889.0763266 1056.053963 125.2332275 877.8372704 212.1627296 45013.02383
Juni
15
1055
1022.026058 968.8461654 1075.205951 79.76983881 1181.287191
-126.287191 15948.45455
Juli
16
1128
1085.610423
1038.90472
1132.316126 70.05855465 1154.975789
-26.9757893 727.6932102
Agustus
17
1161
1130.844169
1094.06839
1167.619949 55.16366951 1202.374681
-41.3746809 1711.864224
September
18
1207
1176.537668 1143.549956 1209.525379 49.48156687 1222.783618
-15.7836185 249.1226118
Oktober
19
1253
1222.415067 1190.869023 1253.961111 47.31906637 1259.006946
-6.00694582 36.08339808
November
20
1329
1286.366027 1248.167225 1324.564828
57.2982024
1301.280178
27.7198223
Desember
21
1359
1329.946411 1297.234737 1362.658085
49.0675113
1381.863031
-22.8630308 522.7181787
Januari
22
1425
1386.978564 1351.081033 1422.876095 53.84629666 1411.725596 13.27440377 176.2097954
Februari
23
1267
1314.991426 1329.427269 1300.555583 21.65376448 1476.722392
24
1308
April
25
1316
1313.918628 1315.650717 1312.186539 2.598132924 1292.165872 23.83412813 568.0656638
Mei
26
1350
1335.567451 1327.600757 1343.534145 11.95004071 1309.588407 40.41159343 1633.096883
Maret
1310.79657
1318.24885
768.3885483
-209.722392 43983.48173
1303.344291 11.17841905 1278.901818 29.09818175 846.7041814
Universitas Sumatera Utara
Juni
27
1473
1418.02698
54.25573384 1355.484186 117.5158142
13809.9666
Juli
28
1597
1525.410792 1467.989072 1582.832513 86.13258055 1508.453204 88.54679644
7840.53516
Agustus
29
1623
1583.964317 1537.574219 1630.354415 69.58514703 1668.965093
-45.9650931 2112.789786
September
30
1636
1615.185727 1584.141124
-63.9395619
Oktober
31
1641
1630.674291 1612.061024 1649.287558 27.91990026 1692.797235
November
32
1700
1672.269716 1648.186239 1696.353193 36.12521545 1677.207458 22.79254219 519.4999796
Desember
33
1780
1736.907887 1701.419228 1772.396545 53.23298832 1732.478409
Januari
34
1832
1793.963155 1756.945584 1830.980725 55.52635618 1825.629534 6.370466287 40.58284072
Februari
35
1705
1740.585262 1747.129391 1734.041133
-9.81619318 1886.507082
-181.507082 32944.82066
Maret
36
2050
1926.234105 1854.592219
107.4628285
325.7750601 106129.3898
April
37
2157
2064.693642 1980.653073 2148.734211 126.0608537 2105.338819 51.66118116 2668.877639
41906
302518.5045
Jumlah
1381.856491
1454.19747
1646.23033
1997.87599
46.56690474 1699.939562
1724.22494
4088.26758
-51.7972346 2682.953517
47.5215913
2258.301639
Universitas Sumatera Utara
Lampiran.6
Tabel Pemulusan Eksponensial Linier Satu Parameter Dari Brown Menggunakan α = 0,7 Pada Data Jumlah Pelanggan
Kartu Kredit
Bulan
April
Periode
1
102
102
102
Mei
2
178
155.2
139.24
171.16
37.24
Juni
3
230
207.56
187.064
228.056
47.824
208.4
21.6
466.56
Juli
4
305
275.768
249.1568
302.3792
62.0928
275.88
29.12
847.9744
Agustus
5
399
362.0304
328.16832
395.89248
79.01152
364.472
34.528
1192.182784
September
6
462
432.00912
400.85688
463.16136
72.68856
474.904
-12.904
166.513216
Oktober
7
537
505.502736
73.2520992
535.84992
1.15008
1.322684006
November
8
580
557.6508208 532.5882683 582.7133733 58.47928912
610.148592
-30.148592
908.9375996
Desember
9
632
609.6952462 586.5631529 632.8273396 53.97488454 641.1926624
-9.1926624
84.505042
Januari
10
721
687.6085739 657.2949476 717.9222002 70.73179471 686.8022242 34.19777584 1169.487872
Februari
11
701
696.9825722 685.0762848 708.8888595 27.78133721 788.6539949
Maret
12
789
761.3947716 738.4992256 784.2903177 53.42294081 736.6701968 52.32980325 2738.408308
April
13
828
808.0184315 787.1626697 828.8741933 48.66344413 837.7132585
474.1089792 536.8964928
-87.6539949 7683.222818
-9.71325851 94.34739094
Universitas Sumatera Utara
Mei
14
1090
1005.405529 939.9326715 1070.878387 152.7700018 877.5376374 212.4623626 45140.25552
Juni
15
1055
1040.121659 1010.064963 1070.178355 70.13229111 1223.648389
-168.648389 28442.27917
Juli
16
1128
1101.636498 1074.165037 1129.107958
64.1000745
1140.310646
-12.3106461 151.5520083
Agustus
17
1161
1143.190949 1122.483176 1163.898723
48.3181385
1193.208033
-32.2080327 1037.357368
September
18
1207
1187.857285 1168.245052 1207.469518
45.7618764
1212.216861
-5.21686144
Oktober
19
1253
1233.457185 1213.893545 1253.020825 45.64849337 1253.231394
November
20
1329
1300.337156 1274.404073 1326.270239 60.51052715 1298.669319 30.33068117 919.9502205
Desember
21
1359
1341.401147 1321.302024 1361.500269 46.89795189 1386.780766
Januari
22
1425
1399.920344 1376.334848
1423.50584
55.03282369 1408.398221 16.60177919 275.6190722
Februari
23
1267
1306.876103 1327.713727
1286.03848
-48.6211214 1478.538664
Maret
24
1308
1307.662831
1301.647562
-14.0356270 1237.417358 70.58264174 4981.909315
April
25
1316
1313.498849 1313.552624 1313.445074
Mei
26
1350
1339.049655 1331.400546 1346.698764 17.84792127 1313.319599
36.6804011
1345.451825
Juni
27
1473
1432.814896 1402.390591 1463.239202 70.99004553 1364.546685 108.4533148
11762.1215
Juli
28
1597
1547.744469 1504.138306 1591.350632 101.7477144 1534.229247
3940.167407
1313.6781
27.2156433
-0.23139393 0.053543149
-27.7807658 771.7709508
-211.538664 44748.60618
-0.12547527 1287.611935 28.38806476
62.7707528
805.882221
Universitas Sumatera Utara
Agustus
29
1623
1600.423341
1629.308851 67.39952455 1693.098347
-70.0983467 4913.778204
September
30
1636
1625.327002 1609.190251 1641.463754 37.65242043 1696.708376
-60.7083757 3685.506886
Oktober
31
1641
1636.298101 1628.165746 1644.430456 18.97549505 1679.116174
-38.1161742 1452.842739
November
32
1700
1680.88943
Desember
33
1780
1750.266829 1724.708478
1775.82518
59.63615296 1733.613115 46.38688524 2151.743123
Januari
34
1832
1807.480049 1782.648577
1832.31152
57.94009965 1835.461333
-3.46133329 11.98082813
Februari
35
1705
1735.744015 1749.815383 1721.672646
-32.8331939
-185.25162
Maret
36
2050
1955.723204 1893.950858 2017.495551 144.1354746 1688.839452 361.1605482 130436.9416
April
37
2157
2096.616961
Jumlah
41906
1571.53783
1665.072325 1696.706536 36.90657919 1663.405951 36.59404927 1339.124442
2035.81713
1890.25162
2157.416792 141.8662722 2161.631025
34318.16258
-4.63102531 21.44639539
338035.1808
Universitas Sumatera Utara
Lampiran.7
Tabel Pemulusan Eksponensial Linier Satu Parameter Dari Brown Menggunakan α = 0,8 Pada Data Jumlah Pelanggan
Kartu Kredit
Bulan
April
Periode
1
102
102
102
Mei
2
178
162.8
150.64
174.96
48.64
Juni
3
230
216.56
203.376
229.744
52.736
223.6
6.4
40.96
Juli
4
305
287.312
270.5248
304.0992
67.1488
282.48
22.52
507.1504
Agustus
5
399
376.6624
355.43488
397.88992
84.91008
371.248
27.752
770.173504
September
6
462
444.93248
427.03296
462.832
71.59808
482.8
-20.8
432.64
Oktober
7
537
518.586496
73.2428288
534.43008
2.56992
6.604488806
November
8
580
567.7172992 554.2289971 581.2056013 53.95320832
610.140032
-30.140032
908.421529
Desember
9
632
619.1434598 606.1605673 632.1263524 51.93157018 635.1588096
-3.1588096
9.978078089
Januari
10
721
700.628692
Februari
11
701
700.9257384 697.0876041 704.7638727 15.35253709 795.0968166
Maret
12
789
771.3851477
April
13
828
816.6770295 804.6467514 828.7073076 48.12111245 845.6826912
500.2757888 536.8972032
681.735067
756.525639
719.5223169 75.57449974 684.0579226 36.94207744 1364.717086
-94.0968166 8854.210902
786.2446564 59.43803485 720.1164098 68.88359025 4744.949005
-17.6826912 312.6775693
Universitas Sumatera Utara
Mei
14
1090
1035.335406
989.197675
1081.473137 184.5509236 876.8284201 213.1715799 45442.12248
Juni
15
1055
1051.067081
1038.6932
1063.440962 49.49552494
Juli
16
1128
1112.613416 1097.829373 1127.397459 59.13617303 1112.936487 15.06351265 226.9094133
Agustus
17
1161
1151.322683 1140.624021 1162.021345 42.79464822 1186.533633
September
18
1207
1195.864537 1184.816434
Oktober
19
1253
1241.572907 1230.221613 1252.924202 45.40517902 1251.105052 1.894947895 3.590827523
November
20
1329
1311.514581 1295.255988 1327.773175 65.03437511 1298.329381
30.6706189
Desember
21
1359
1349.502916 1338.653531 1360.352302 43.39754288
-33.8075504 1142.950461
Januari
22
1425
1409.900583 1395.651173 1424.149994 56.99764215 1403.749845
21.2501551
Februari
23
1267
1295.580117 1315.594328 1275.565905
-80.0568449 1481.147636
-214.147636 45859.20998
Maret
24
1308
1305.516023 1307.531684 1303.500362
-8.06264363 1195.509061 112.4909394 12654.21145
April
25
1316
1313.903205 1312.628901 1315.177509 5.097216343 1295.437719
Mei
26
1350
1342.780641 1336.750293 1348.810989 24.12139228 1320.274725 29.72527491 883.5919682
Juni
27
1473
1446.956128 1424.914961 1468.997295 88.16466826 1372.932381 100.0676187 10013.52832
Juli
28
1597
1566.991226 1538.575973 1595.406479 113.6610116 1557.161964 39.83803649 1587.069151
1206.91264
1266.02406
-211.02406
44531.15406
-25.5336325 651.9663899
44.19241236 1204.815994 2.184006484 4.769884322
1392.80755
20.5622812
940.6868636
451.5690918
422.8074084
Universitas Sumatera Utara
Agustus
29
1623
1611.798245 1597.153791
September
30
1636
Oktober
31
58.57781791
1709.06749
-86.0674902 7407.612861
1631.159649 1624.358477 1637.960821
27.2046867
1685.020518
-49.0205175 2403.011138
1641
1639.03193
11.73876196 1665.165507
November
32
1700
1687.806386 1677.464557 1698.148215 41.36731732 1653.705382 46.29461774 2143.191632
Desember
33
1780
1761.561277 1744.741933 1778.380621 67.27737645 1739.515533 40.48446739
Januari
34
1832
1817.912255 1803.278191
1832.54632
58.53625789 1845.657998
-13.6579978 186.5409026
Februari
35
1705
1727.582451 1742.721599 1712.443303
-60.5565919 1891.082578
-186.082578 34626.72576
Maret
36
2050
1985.51649
April
37
2157
2122.703298 2085.554141 2159.852455 148.5966288 2228.311381
Jumlah
41906
1636.097239
1626.4427
1641.96662
-24.1655074
583.971748
1638.9921
1936.957512 2034.075468 194.2359129 1651.886711 398.1132888 158494.1907
-71.3113814 5085.313113
395338.1703
Universitas Sumatera Utara
Lampiran.8
Tabel Pemulusan Eksponensial Linier Satu Parameter Dari Brown Menggunakan α = 0,9 Pada Data Jumlah Pelanggan
Kartu Kredit
Bulan
April
Periode
1
102
102
102
Mei
2
178
170.4
163.56
177.24
61.56
Juni
3
230
224.04
217.992
230.088
54.432
238.8
-8.8
77.44
Juli
4
305
296.904
289.0128
304.7952
71.0208
284.52
20.48
419.4304
Agustus
5
399
388.7904
378.81264
398.76816
89.79984
375.816
23.184
537.497856
September
6
462
454.67904
447.0924
462.26568
68.27976
488.568
-26.568
705.858624
Oktober
7
537
528.767904
73.5079536
530.54544
6.45456
41.66134479
November
8
580
574.8767904 569.4491467 580.3044341 48.84879312
610.443408
-30.443408
926.8010907
Desember
9
632
626.287679
620.6038258 631.9715323 51.15467909 629.1532272
2.8467728
8.104115375
Januari
10
721
711.5287679 702.4362737 720.6212621 81.83244789 683.1262114 37.87378864 1434.423866
Februari
11
701
702.0528768 702.0912165 702.0145371
Maret
12
789
780.3052877 772.4838806 788.1266948 70.39266408 701.6694799 87.33052011 7626.619743
April
13
828
823.2305288 818.1558639 828.3051936 45.67198339 858.5193589
520.6003536 536.9354544
-0.34505721
802.45371
-101.45371
10292.85527
-30.5193589 931.4312663
Universitas Sumatera Utara
Mei
14
1090
1063.323053 1038.806334 1087.839772
220.65047
873.977177
Juni
15
1055
1055.832305 1054.129708 1057.534902 15.32337417 1308.490242
Juli
16
1128
1120.783231 1114.117878 1127.448583 59.98817013 1072.858277 55.14172341
Agustus
17
1161
1156.978323 1152.692279 1161.264368 38.57440029 1187.436753
September
18
1207
1201.997832 1197.067277 1206.928388 44.37499836 1199.838768 7.161232186 51.28324642
Oktober
19
1253
1247.899783 1242.816533 1252.983034 45.74925567 1251.303386 1.696613966
November
20
1329
1320.889978 1313.082634 1328.697323 70.26610115
Desember
21
1359
1355.188998 1350.978361 1359.399634 37.89572767 1398.963424
Januari
22
1425
1418.0189
1411.314846 1424.722954 60.33648452 1397.295362 27.70463809 767.5469715
Februari
23
1267
1282.10189
1295.023186 1269.180594
Maret
24
1308
April
25
Mei
1298.73229
216.022823
46665.86007
-253.490242 64257.30269
3040.60966
-26.4367529 698.9019039
2.87849895
30.26771047 916.1342972
-39.963424
1597.075261
-116.291660 1485.059438
-218.059438 47549.91856
1305.410189 1304.371489 1306.448889
9.34830308
1152.888934
155.111066
24059.44279
1316
1314.941019 1313.884066 1315.997972
9.51257722
1315.797192
0.20280758
0.041130914
26
1350
1346.494102 1343.233098 1349.755105 29.34903241 1325.510549 24.48945086 599.7332032
Juni
27
1473
1460.34941
Juli
28
1597
1583.334941 1569.865225 1596.804657 121.2274458 1577.465722 19.53427791 381.5880135
1448.637779 1472.061041 105.4046807 1379.104138
93.8958621
8816.432919
Universitas Sumatera Utara
Agustus
29
1623
1619.033494 1614.116667 1623.950321 44.25144236 1718.032103
-95.032103
September
30
1636
1634.303349 1632.284681 1636.322018 18.16801401 1668.201763
-32.2017634 1036.953565
Oktober
31
1641
1640.330335
1639.52577
1641.1349
7.241088379 1654.490032
-13.4900316 181.9809538
November
32
1700
1694.033033 1688.582307
1699.48376
49.05653754 1648.375989
51.6240113
Desember
33
1780
1771.403303 1763.121204 1779.685403 74.53889662 1748.540297 31.45970258 989.7128863
Januari
34
1832
1825.94033
Februari
35
1705
1717.094033 1727.350471 1706.837595
Maret
36
2050
2016.709403
1987.77351
April
37
2157
2142.97094
2127.451197 2158.490683 139.6776872 2306.068335
Jumlah
41906
1819.658418 1832.222243 56.53721395
1854.2243
9031.100608
2665.038543
-22.2242996 493.9194926
-92.3079462 1888.759457
-183.759457 33767.53802
2045.645296 260.4230386 1614.529648 435.4703516 189634.4271
-149.068335 22221.36853
482428.9125
Universitas Sumatera Utara
Tabel Pemulusan Eksponensial Linier Satu Parameter Dari Brown Menggunakan α = 0,2 Pada Data Jumlah Pelanggan
Kartu Kredit
Bulan
April
Periode
1
102
102
102
Mei
2
178
117.2
105.04
129.36
3.04
Juni
3
230
139.76
111.984
167.536
6.944
132.4
97.6
9525.76
Juli
4
305
172.808
124.1488
221.4672
12.1648
174.48
130.52
17035.4704
Agustus
5
399
218.0464
142.92832
293.16448
18.77952
233.632
165.368
27346.57542
September
6
462
266.83712
167.71008
365.96416
24.78176
311.944
150.056
22516.80314
Oktober
7
537
320.869696
30.6319232
390.74592
146.25408
21390.25592
November
8
580
372.6957568 233.2127539 512.1787597 34.87075072
474.029312
105.970688
11229.78672
Desember
9
632
424.5566054 271.4815242 577.6316867
38.2687703
547.0495104
84.9504896
7216.585683
Januari
10
721
483.8452844 313.9542762 653.7362925 42.47275203
615.900457
105.099543
11045.91395
Februari
11
701
527.2762275 356.6186665 697.9337885 42.66439025 696.2090445
4.79095552
22.95325479
Maret
12
789
579.620982
401.2191296 758.0228344
44.6004631
740.5981787 48.40182129 2342.736304
April
13
828
629.2967856 446.8346608 811.7589104
45.6155312
802.6232975 25.37670253 643.9770311
198.3420032 443.3973888
Universitas Sumatera Utara
Mei
14
1090
721.4374285 501.7552143 941.1196426 54.92055354 857.3744416 232.6255584 54114.65043
Juni
15
1055
788.1499428
Juli
16
1128
856.1199542 618.4513189
Agustus
17
1161
917.0959634 678.1802478 1156.011679
September
18
1207
975.0767707 737.5595524 1212.593989 59.37930459 1215.740608
-8.7406079
Oktober
19
1253
1030.661417 796.1799252 1265.142908 58.62037284 1271.973294
-18.9732936 359.9858716
November
20
1329
1090.329133 855.0097668
Desember
21
1359
1144.063307 912.8204748 1375.306138 57.81070796 1384.478341
-25.4783413 649.1458757
Januari
22
1425
1200.250645 970.3065089 1430.194782
-8.11684639
Februari
23
1267
1213.600516
1408.235722 48.65880147 1487.680816
-220.680816 48700.02246
Maret
24
1308
1232.480413 1061.668331 1403.292495 42.70302053 1456.894524
-148.894524 22169.57915
April
25
1316
1249.18433
37.5031999
1445.995516
-129.995516 16898.83408
Mei
26
1350
1269.347464 1133.206717 1405.488211 34.03518671
1436.70033
-86.7003299 7516.947205
Juni
27
1473
1310.077971 1168.580968 1451.574975 35.37425079 1439.523398 33.47660216 1120.682892
Juli
28
1597
1367.462377
559.03416
1018.96531
1099.171531
1208.35725
1017.265726 57.27894569 996.0401961 58.95980385
1093.78859
1325.6485
1399.19713
3476.25847
59.41715884 1074.544671 53.45532878 2857.472174
59.7289289
1153.205748 7.794251576 60.75035762
76.39822638
58.82984161 1323.763281 5.236719228 27.42322827
57.4860341
1433.116846
65.8831954
1526.567504 39.77628178 1486.949225 110.0507746 12111.17299
Universitas Sumatera Utara
29
1623
1418.569902
September
30
1636
1462.055921 1292.731009 1631.380834
42.3312282
1628.782553 7.217446598 52.09153539
Oktober
31
1641
1497.844737 1333.753754
41.0227457
1673.712062
-32.7120624 1070.079025
November
32
1700
1538.27579
1374.658161 1701.893418 40.90440708 1702.958466
-2.95846563 8.752518857
Desember
33
1780
1586.620632 1417.050655 1756.190608 42.39249408 1742.797825 37.20217492 1384.001819
Januari
34
1832
1635.696505 1460.779825 1810.613185 43.72916999 1798.583102 33.41689787 1116.689063
Februari
35
1705
1649.557204 1498.535301 1800.579107 37.75547578 1854.342355
Maret
36
2050
1729.645763 1544.757394 1914.534133 46.22209245 1838.334583 211.6654168 44802.24867
April
37
2157
1815.116611 1598.829237 2031.403984 54.07184342 1960.756226 196.2437743 38511.61895
41906
412980.5717
Jumlah
1250.39978
1586.740023 42.04253034 1566.343786 56.65621396
Agustus
1661.93572
-149.342355
3209.92658
22303.1391
Universitas Sumatera Utara
Lampiran.2
Tabel Pemulusan Eksponensial Linier Satu Parameter Dari Brown Menggunakan α = 0,3 Pada Data Jumlah Pelanggan
Kartu Kredit
Bulan
April
Periode
1
102
102
102
Mei
2
178
124.8
108.84
140.76
6.84
Juni
3
230
156.36
123.096
189.624
14.256
147.6
82.4
156.36
Juli
4
305
200.952
146.4528
255.4512
23.3568
203.88
101.12
200.952
Agustus
5
399
260.3664
180.62688
340.10592
34.17408
278.808
120.192
260.3664
September
6
462
320.85648
222.69576
419.0172
42.06888
374.28
87.72
320.85648
Oktober
7
537
385.699536
48.9011328
461.08608
75.91392
385.699536
November
8
580
443.9896752 323.3147275 564.6646229 51.71783472
548.703312
31.296688
443.9896752
Desember
9
632
500.3927726 376.4381411 624.3474042 53.12341354 616.3824576
15.6175424
500.3927726
Januari
10
721
566.5749408
Februari
11
701
606.9024586 485.5061643 728.2987529 52.02698328 756.7117406
Maret
12
789
661.531721
April
13
828
711.4722047 590.2613433 832.6830661 51.94751202 837.5572778
102
271.5968928 499.8021792
433.479181
124.8
699.6707007 57.04103994 677.4708178 43.52918224 566.5749408
-55.7117406 606.9024586
538.3138313 784.7496107 52.80766702 780.3257362 8.674263806
661.531721
-9.55727776 711.4722047
Universitas Sumatera Utara
Mei
14
1090
825.0305433 660.6921033 989.3689833 70.43075999 884.6305781 205.3694219 825.0305433
Juni
15
1055
894.0213803 730.6908864 1057.351874
Juli
16
1128
964.2149662 800.7481104 1127.681822 70.05722394 1127.350657 0.649342697 964.2149662
Agustus
17
1161
1023.250476 867.4988202 1179.002133
September
18
1207
1078.375333 930.7617741 1225.988893 63.26295399 1245.752842
-38.7528423 1078.375333
Oktober
19
1253
1130.762733 990.7620619 1270.763405 60.00028778 1289.251847
-36.2518467 1130.762733
November
20
1329
1190.233913 1050.603617 1329.864209 59.84155544 1330.763693
-1.76369268 1190.233913
Desember
21
1359
1240.863739 1107.681654 1374.045825
1389.705765
-30.7057649 1240.863739
Januari
22
1425
1296.104618 1164.208543 1428.000692 56.52688908 1431.123861
-6.12386138 1296.104618
Februari
23
1267
1287.373232
1373.588515 36.94940677 1484.527581
-217.527581 1287.373232
Maret
24
1308
1293.561263 1228.878944 1358.243582 27.72099384 1410.537922
-102.537922 1293.561263
April
25
1316
1300.292884 1250.303126 1350.282642 21.42418205 1385.964575
-69.9645754 1300.292884
Mei
26
1350
1315.205019 1269.773694 1360.636344 19.47056789 1371.706824
-21.706824
Juni
27
1473
1362.543513 1297.604639 1427.482387 27.83094584 1380.106912 92.89308835 1362.543513
Juli
28
1597
1432.880459 1338.187385 1527.573533 40.58274591 1455.313333 141.6866674 1432.880459
1201.15795
69.9987831
66.7507098
57.0780366
1059.799743
1197.739046
-4.79974327 894.0213803
-36.739046
1023.250476
1315.205019
Universitas Sumatera Utara
Agustus
29
1623
1489.916321 1383.706066 1596.126577 45.51868082 1568.156279 54.84372114 1489.916321
September
30
1636
1533.741425 1428.716674 1638.766176 45.01060764 1641.645257
-5.64525746 1533.741425
Oktober
31
1641
1565.918997 1469.877371 1661.960624
41.1606971
1683.776784
-42.7767838 1565.918997
November
32
1700
1606.143298 1510.757149 1701.529447
40.8797782
1703.121321
-3.12132116 1606.143298
Desember
33
1780
1658.300309 1555.020097 1761.580521
44.2629479
1742.409226 37.59077443 1658.300309
Januari
34
1832
1710.410216 1601.637133
46.61703574 1805.843468 26.15653157 1710.410216
Februari
35
1705
1708.787151 1633.782138 1783.792164 32.14500556 1865.800335
-160.800335 1708.787151
Maret
36
2050
1811.151006 1686.992799 1935.309213 53.21066028
234.0628302 1811.151006
April
37
2157
1914.905704
Jumlah
41906
1755.36667
1819.1833
1815.93717
2074.444738 68.37387166 1988.519874 168.4801265 1914.905704
306563.6448
Universitas Sumatera Utara
Lampiran.3
Tabel Pemulusan Eksponensial Linier Satu Parameter Dari Brown Menggunakan α = 0,4 Pada Data Jumlah Pelanggan
Kartu Kredit
Bulan
April
Periode
1
102
102
102
Mei
2
178
132.4
114.16
150.64
12.16
Juni
3
230
171.44
137.072
205.808
22.912
162.8
67.2
4515.84
Juli
4
305
224.864
172.1888
277.5392
35.1168
228.72
76.28
5818.6384
Agustus
5
399
294.5184
221.12064
367.91616
48.93184
312.656
86.344
7455.286336
September
6
462
361.51104
277.2768
445.74528
56.15616
416.848
45.152
2038.703104
Oktober
7
537
431.706624
61.7719296
501.90144
35.09856
1231.908914
November
8
580
491.0239744 399.8388275 582.2091213 60.79009792
586.136448
-6.136448
37.65599406
Desember
9
632
547.4143846 458.8690504 635.9597189 59.03022285 642.9992192
-10.9992192
120.982823
Januari
10
721
616.8486308 522.0608825
711.636379
63.19183217 694.9899418 26.01005824 676.5231296
Februari
11
701
650.5091785 573.4402009
727.578156
51.37931837 774.8282112
Maret
12
789
705.9055071 626.4263234 785.3846908 52.98612247 778.9574744 10.04252559 100.8523203
April
13
828
754.7433042 677.7531157 831.7334928 51.32679235 838.3708133
339.0487296 524.3645184
-73.8282112 5450.604769
-10.3708133 107.5537676
Universitas Sumatera Utara
Mei
14
1090
888.8459825 762.1902625 1015.501703 84.43714673 883.0602851 206.9397149 42824.04559
Juni
15
1055
955.3075895 839.4371933 1071.177986 77.24693083 1099.938849
-44.9388494 2019.500183
Juli
16
1128
1024.384554 913.4161375
73.97894417 1148.424917
-20.4249166 417.1772183
Agustus
17
1161
1079.030732 979.6619754 1178.399489 66.24583791 1209.331914
-48.3319142 2335.973925
September
18
1207
1130.218439 1039.884561 1220.552318 60.22258559 1244.645327
-37.645327
Oktober
19
1253
1179.331064 1095.663162 1262.998965 55.77860106 1280.774903
-27.7749033 771.4452539
November
20
1329
1239.198638 1153.077352 1325.319924 57.41419046 1318.777566 10.22243375 104.4981518
Desember
21
1359
1287.119183 1206.694085 1367.544281 53.61673217 1382.734114
Januari
22
1425
1342.27151
Februari
23
1267
1312.162906 1281.420195 1342.905617 20.49514046 1477.848935
-210.848935 44457.27332
Maret
24
1308
1310.497744 1293.051214 1327.944273 11.63101934 1363.400757
-55.400757
April
25
1316
1312.698646 1300.910187 1324.487105 7.858972645 1339.575292
-23.5752919 555.7943866
Mei
26
1350
1327.619188 1311.593787 1343.644588 10.68360021 1332.346078 17.65392228
Juni
27
1473
1385.771513 1341.264877 1430.278148
Juli
28
1597
1470.262908 1392.864089 1547.661726 51.59921204 1459.949238 137.0507622 18782.91141
1135.35297
-23.7341143
1417.170645
563.308182
1260.925055 1423.617965 54.23097004 1421.161013 3.838986679 14.73781872
29.6710901
3069.243877
311.660972
1354.328188 118.6718118 14082.99892
Universitas Sumatera Utara
Agustus
29
1623
1531.357745 1448.261552 1614.453938 55.39746202 1599.260938 23.73906233 563.5430803
September
30
1636
1573.214647
Oktober
31
1641
1600.328788 1539.077189 1661.580387 40.83439938 1698.167742
-57.1677419 3268.150718
November
32
1700
1640.197273 1579.525223 1700.869323 40.44803354 1702.414786
-2.41478647 5.831193703
Desember
33
1780
1696.118364 1626.162479 1766.074248 46.63725647 1741.317357 38.68264333 1496.346895
Januari
34
1832
1750.471018 1675.885895 1825.056142 49.72341569 1812.711505 19.28849513 372.0460442
Februari
35
1705
1732.282611 1698.444581 1766.120641
Maret
36
2050
1859.369567 1762.814575 1955.924558 64.36999415 1788.679327 261.3206728 68288.49404
April
37
2157
1978.42174
Jumlah
41906
1498.24279
1648.186504 49.98123808
22.5586865
1669.8514
-33.8513996 1145.917253
1874.779557
-169.779557 28825.09813
1849.057441 2107.786039 86.24286584 2020.294552 136.7054481 18688.37953
281936.0963
Universitas Sumatera Utara
Lampiran.4
Tabel Pemulusan Eksponensial Linier Satu Parameter Dari Brown Menggunakan α = 0,5 Pada Data Jumlah Pelanggan
Kartu Kredit
Bulan
April
Periode
1
102
102
102
Mei
2
178
140
121
159
19
Juni
3
230
185
153
217
32
178
52
2704
Juli
4
305
245
199
291
46
249
56
3136
Agustus
5
399
322
260.5
383.5
61.5
337
62
3844
September
6
462
392
326.25
457.75
65.75
445
17
289
Oktober
7
537
464.5
395.375
533.625
69.125
523.5
13.5
182.25
November
8
580
522.25
458.8125
585.6875
63.4375
602.75
-22.75
517.5625
Desember
9
632
577.125
517.96875
636.28125
59.15625
649.125
-17.125
293.265625
Januari
10
721
649.0625
583.515625
714.609375
65.546875
695.4375
25.5625
653.4414063
Februari
11
701
675.03125
629.2734375 720.7890625
45.7578125
780.15625
-79.15625
6265.711914
Maret
12
789
732.015625
680.6445313 783.3867188 51.37109375
766.546875
22.453125
504.1428223
April
13
828
780.0078125 730.3261719 829.6894531 49.68164063 834.7578125
-6.7578125
45.66802979
Universitas Sumatera Utara
Mei
14
1090
935.0039063 832.6650391 1037.342773 102.3388672 879.3710938 210.6289063 44364.53615
Juni
15
1055
995.0019531 913.8334961
81.16845703 1139.681641
-84.6816406 7170.980259
Juli
16
1128
1061.500977 987.6672363 1135.334717 73.83374023 1157.338867
-29.3388672 860.7691278
Agustus
17
1161
1111.250488 1049.458862 1173.042114 61.79162598 1209.168457
-48.168457
September
18
1207
1159.125244 1104.292053 1213.958435 54.83319092
-27.8337402 774.7170954
Oktober
19
1253
1206.062622 1155.177338 1256.947906 50.88528442 1268.791626
November
20
1329
1267.531311 1211.354324 1323.708298 56.17698669 1307.833191 21.16680908 448.0338067
Desember
21
1359
1313.265656
Januari
22
1425
1369.132828 1315.721409 1422.544247 53.41141891 1415.176987 9.823013306
Februari
23
1267
1318.066414 1316.893911 1319.238916 1.172502518 1475.955666
-208.955666 43662.47018
Maret
24
1308
1313.033207 1314.963559 1311.102855 1.930352211 1320.411419
-12.4114189 154.0433195
April
25
1316
1314.516603 1314.740081 1314.293126
Mei
26
1350
1332.258302 1323.499192 1341.017412 8.759110212 1314.069648 35.93035221
Juni
27
1473
1402.629151 1363.064171 1442.194131 39.56497967 1349.776522 123.2234778 15184.02549
Juli
28
1597
1499.814575 1431.439373 1568.189778 68.37520212
1262.30999
1076.17041
1234.83374
1364.221321 50.95566559 1379.885284
-15.791626
2320.200253
249.375451
-20.8852844 436.1951055
96.4915904
-0.22347784 1309.172503 6.827497482 46.61472187
1481.75911
1290.99021
115.2408898 13280.46268
Universitas Sumatera Utara
Agustus
29
1623
1561.407288 1496.423331 1626.391245
September
30
1636
1598.703644 1547.563487 1649.843801 51.14015667 1691.375202
-55.3752021
Oktober
31
1641
1619.851822 1583.707655 1655.995989 36.14416737 1700.983957
-59.9839572 3598.075122
November
32
1700
1659.925911 1621.816783 1698.035039
Desember
33
1780
1719.962955 1670.889869 1769.036042 49.07308636 1736.144167 43.85583263 1923.334056
Januari
34
1832
1775.981478 1723.435673 1828.527282 52.54580431 1818.109128
13.8908718
Februari
35
1705
1740.490739 1731.963206 1749.018272
-176.073086 31001.73174
Maret
36
2050
1895.245369 1813.604288 1976.886451 81.64108164 1757.545804 292.4541957 85529.45658
April
37
2157
2026.122685 1919.863486 2132.381883 106.2591985 2058.527533 98.47246728 9696.826812
Jumlah
41906
64.9839572
38.1091282
8.52753272
1636.56498
-13.5649797 184.0086735
3066.41301
1692.140157 7.859843329 61.77713715
1881.073086
192.9563193
284029.5272
Universitas Sumatera Utara
Lampiran.5
Tabel Pemulusan Eksponensial Linier Satu Parameter Dari Brown Menggunakan α = 0,6 Pada Data Jumlah Pelanggan
Kartu Kredit
Bulan
April
Periode
1
102
102
102
Mei
2
178
147.6
129.36
165.84
27.36
Juni
3
230
197.04
169.968
224.112
40.608
193.2
36.8
1354.24
Juli
4
305
261.816
225.0768
298.5552
55.1088
264.72
40.28
1622.4784
Agustus
5
399
344.1264
296.50656
391.74624
71.42976
353.664
45.336
2055.352896
September
6
462
414.85056
367.51296
462.18816
71.0064
463.176
-1.176
1.382976
Oktober
7
537
488.140224
72.3763584
533.19456
3.80544
14.48137359
November
8
580
543.2560896 501.9093811 584.6027981 62.02006272
608.767488
-28.767488
827.5683658
Desember
9
632
596.5024358
634.3396577 56.75583283 646.6228608
-14.6228608
213.828058
Januari
10
721
671.2009743 626.1866702 716.2152785 67.52145623 691.0954906 29.90450944 894.2796848
Februari
11
701
689.0803897 663.9229019 714.2378776 37.73623173 783.7367347
Maret
12
789
749.0321559 714.9884543 783.0758575 51.06555239 751.9741093 37.02589071 1370.916583
April
13
828
796.4128624 763.8430991 828.9826256 48.85464483 834.1414099
439.8893184 536.3911296
558.665214
-82.7367347 6845.367272
-6.14140987 37.71691524
Universitas Sumatera Utara
Mei
14
1090
972.5651449 889.0763266 1056.053963 125.2332275 877.8372704 212.1627296 45013.02383
Juni
15
1055
1022.026058 968.8461654 1075.205951 79.76983881 1181.287191
-126.287191 15948.45455
Juli
16
1128
1085.610423
1038.90472
1132.316126 70.05855465 1154.975789
-26.9757893 727.6932102
Agustus
17
1161
1130.844169
1094.06839
1167.619949 55.16366951 1202.374681
-41.3746809 1711.864224
September
18
1207
1176.537668 1143.549956 1209.525379 49.48156687 1222.783618
-15.7836185 249.1226118
Oktober
19
1253
1222.415067 1190.869023 1253.961111 47.31906637 1259.006946
-6.00694582 36.08339808
November
20
1329
1286.366027 1248.167225 1324.564828
57.2982024
1301.280178
27.7198223
Desember
21
1359
1329.946411 1297.234737 1362.658085
49.0675113
1381.863031
-22.8630308 522.7181787
Januari
22
1425
1386.978564 1351.081033 1422.876095 53.84629666 1411.725596 13.27440377 176.2097954
Februari
23
1267
1314.991426 1329.427269 1300.555583 21.65376448 1476.722392
24
1308
April
25
1316
1313.918628 1315.650717 1312.186539 2.598132924 1292.165872 23.83412813 568.0656638
Mei
26
1350
1335.567451 1327.600757 1343.534145 11.95004071 1309.588407 40.41159343 1633.096883
Maret
1310.79657
1318.24885
768.3885483
-209.722392 43983.48173
1303.344291 11.17841905 1278.901818 29.09818175 846.7041814
Universitas Sumatera Utara
Juni
27
1473
1418.02698
54.25573384 1355.484186 117.5158142
13809.9666
Juli
28
1597
1525.410792 1467.989072 1582.832513 86.13258055 1508.453204 88.54679644
7840.53516
Agustus
29
1623
1583.964317 1537.574219 1630.354415 69.58514703 1668.965093
-45.9650931 2112.789786
September
30
1636
1615.185727 1584.141124
-63.9395619
Oktober
31
1641
1630.674291 1612.061024 1649.287558 27.91990026 1692.797235
November
32
1700
1672.269716 1648.186239 1696.353193 36.12521545 1677.207458 22.79254219 519.4999796
Desember
33
1780
1736.907887 1701.419228 1772.396545 53.23298832 1732.478409
Januari
34
1832
1793.963155 1756.945584 1830.980725 55.52635618 1825.629534 6.370466287 40.58284072
Februari
35
1705
1740.585262 1747.129391 1734.041133
-9.81619318 1886.507082
-181.507082 32944.82066
Maret
36
2050
1926.234105 1854.592219
107.4628285
325.7750601 106129.3898
April
37
2157
2064.693642 1980.653073 2148.734211 126.0608537 2105.338819 51.66118116 2668.877639
41906
302518.5045
Jumlah
1381.856491
1454.19747
1646.23033
1997.87599
46.56690474 1699.939562
1724.22494
4088.26758
-51.7972346 2682.953517
47.5215913
2258.301639
Universitas Sumatera Utara
Lampiran.6
Tabel Pemulusan Eksponensial Linier Satu Parameter Dari Brown Menggunakan α = 0,7 Pada Data Jumlah Pelanggan
Kartu Kredit
Bulan
April
Periode
1
102
102
102
Mei
2
178
155.2
139.24
171.16
37.24
Juni
3
230
207.56
187.064
228.056
47.824
208.4
21.6
466.56
Juli
4
305
275.768
249.1568
302.3792
62.0928
275.88
29.12
847.9744
Agustus
5
399
362.0304
328.16832
395.89248
79.01152
364.472
34.528
1192.182784
September
6
462
432.00912
400.85688
463.16136
72.68856
474.904
-12.904
166.513216
Oktober
7
537
505.502736
73.2520992
535.84992
1.15008
1.322684006
November
8
580
557.6508208 532.5882683 582.7133733 58.47928912
610.148592
-30.148592
908.9375996
Desember
9
632
609.6952462 586.5631529 632.8273396 53.97488454 641.1926624
-9.1926624
84.505042
Januari
10
721
687.6085739 657.2949476 717.9222002 70.73179471 686.8022242 34.19777584 1169.487872
Februari
11
701
696.9825722 685.0762848 708.8888595 27.78133721 788.6539949
Maret
12
789
761.3947716 738.4992256 784.2903177 53.42294081 736.6701968 52.32980325 2738.408308
April
13
828
808.0184315 787.1626697 828.8741933 48.66344413 837.7132585
474.1089792 536.8964928
-87.6539949 7683.222818
-9.71325851 94.34739094
Universitas Sumatera Utara
Mei
14
1090
1005.405529 939.9326715 1070.878387 152.7700018 877.5376374 212.4623626 45140.25552
Juni
15
1055
1040.121659 1010.064963 1070.178355 70.13229111 1223.648389
-168.648389 28442.27917
Juli
16
1128
1101.636498 1074.165037 1129.107958
64.1000745
1140.310646
-12.3106461 151.5520083
Agustus
17
1161
1143.190949 1122.483176 1163.898723
48.3181385
1193.208033
-32.2080327 1037.357368
September
18
1207
1187.857285 1168.245052 1207.469518
45.7618764
1212.216861
-5.21686144
Oktober
19
1253
1233.457185 1213.893545 1253.020825 45.64849337 1253.231394
November
20
1329
1300.337156 1274.404073 1326.270239 60.51052715 1298.669319 30.33068117 919.9502205
Desember
21
1359
1341.401147 1321.302024 1361.500269 46.89795189 1386.780766
Januari
22
1425
1399.920344 1376.334848
1423.50584
55.03282369 1408.398221 16.60177919 275.6190722
Februari
23
1267
1306.876103 1327.713727
1286.03848
-48.6211214 1478.538664
Maret
24
1308
1307.662831
1301.647562
-14.0356270 1237.417358 70.58264174 4981.909315
April
25
1316
1313.498849 1313.552624 1313.445074
Mei
26
1350
1339.049655 1331.400546 1346.698764 17.84792127 1313.319599
36.6804011
1345.451825
Juni
27
1473
1432.814896 1402.390591 1463.239202 70.99004553 1364.546685 108.4533148
11762.1215
Juli
28
1597
1547.744469 1504.138306 1591.350632 101.7477144 1534.229247
3940.167407
1313.6781
27.2156433
-0.23139393 0.053543149
-27.7807658 771.7709508
-211.538664 44748.60618
-0.12547527 1287.611935 28.38806476
62.7707528
805.882221
Universitas Sumatera Utara
Agustus
29
1623
1600.423341
1629.308851 67.39952455 1693.098347
-70.0983467 4913.778204
September
30
1636
1625.327002 1609.190251 1641.463754 37.65242043 1696.708376
-60.7083757 3685.506886
Oktober
31
1641
1636.298101 1628.165746 1644.430456 18.97549505 1679.116174
-38.1161742 1452.842739
November
32
1700
1680.88943
Desember
33
1780
1750.266829 1724.708478
1775.82518
59.63615296 1733.613115 46.38688524 2151.743123
Januari
34
1832
1807.480049 1782.648577
1832.31152
57.94009965 1835.461333
-3.46133329 11.98082813
Februari
35
1705
1735.744015 1749.815383 1721.672646
-32.8331939
-185.25162
Maret
36
2050
1955.723204 1893.950858 2017.495551 144.1354746 1688.839452 361.1605482 130436.9416
April
37
2157
2096.616961
Jumlah
41906
1571.53783
1665.072325 1696.706536 36.90657919 1663.405951 36.59404927 1339.124442
2035.81713
1890.25162
2157.416792 141.8662722 2161.631025
34318.16258
-4.63102531 21.44639539
338035.1808
Universitas Sumatera Utara
Lampiran.7
Tabel Pemulusan Eksponensial Linier Satu Parameter Dari Brown Menggunakan α = 0,8 Pada Data Jumlah Pelanggan
Kartu Kredit
Bulan
April
Periode
1
102
102
102
Mei
2
178
162.8
150.64
174.96
48.64
Juni
3
230
216.56
203.376
229.744
52.736
223.6
6.4
40.96
Juli
4
305
287.312
270.5248
304.0992
67.1488
282.48
22.52
507.1504
Agustus
5
399
376.6624
355.43488
397.88992
84.91008
371.248
27.752
770.173504
September
6
462
444.93248
427.03296
462.832
71.59808
482.8
-20.8
432.64
Oktober
7
537
518.586496
73.2428288
534.43008
2.56992
6.604488806
November
8
580
567.7172992 554.2289971 581.2056013 53.95320832
610.140032
-30.140032
908.421529
Desember
9
632
619.1434598 606.1605673 632.1263524 51.93157018 635.1588096
-3.1588096
9.978078089
Januari
10
721
700.628692
Februari
11
701
700.9257384 697.0876041 704.7638727 15.35253709 795.0968166
Maret
12
789
771.3851477
April
13
828
816.6770295 804.6467514 828.7073076 48.12111245 845.6826912
500.2757888 536.8972032
681.735067
756.525639
719.5223169 75.57449974 684.0579226 36.94207744 1364.717086
-94.0968166 8854.210902
786.2446564 59.43803485 720.1164098 68.88359025 4744.949005
-17.6826912 312.6775693
Universitas Sumatera Utara
Mei
14
1090
1035.335406
989.197675
1081.473137 184.5509236 876.8284201 213.1715799 45442.12248
Juni
15
1055
1051.067081
1038.6932
1063.440962 49.49552494
Juli
16
1128
1112.613416 1097.829373 1127.397459 59.13617303 1112.936487 15.06351265 226.9094133
Agustus
17
1161
1151.322683 1140.624021 1162.021345 42.79464822 1186.533633
September
18
1207
1195.864537 1184.816434
Oktober
19
1253
1241.572907 1230.221613 1252.924202 45.40517902 1251.105052 1.894947895 3.590827523
November
20
1329
1311.514581 1295.255988 1327.773175 65.03437511 1298.329381
30.6706189
Desember
21
1359
1349.502916 1338.653531 1360.352302 43.39754288
-33.8075504 1142.950461
Januari
22
1425
1409.900583 1395.651173 1424.149994 56.99764215 1403.749845
21.2501551
Februari
23
1267
1295.580117 1315.594328 1275.565905
-80.0568449 1481.147636
-214.147636 45859.20998
Maret
24
1308
1305.516023 1307.531684 1303.500362
-8.06264363 1195.509061 112.4909394 12654.21145
April
25
1316
1313.903205 1312.628901 1315.177509 5.097216343 1295.437719
Mei
26
1350
1342.780641 1336.750293 1348.810989 24.12139228 1320.274725 29.72527491 883.5919682
Juni
27
1473
1446.956128 1424.914961 1468.997295 88.16466826 1372.932381 100.0676187 10013.52832
Juli
28
1597
1566.991226 1538.575973 1595.406479 113.6610116 1557.161964 39.83803649 1587.069151
1206.91264
1266.02406
-211.02406
44531.15406
-25.5336325 651.9663899
44.19241236 1204.815994 2.184006484 4.769884322
1392.80755
20.5622812
940.6868636
451.5690918
422.8074084
Universitas Sumatera Utara
Agustus
29
1623
1611.798245 1597.153791
September
30
1636
Oktober
31
58.57781791
1709.06749
-86.0674902 7407.612861
1631.159649 1624.358477 1637.960821
27.2046867
1685.020518
-49.0205175 2403.011138
1641
1639.03193
11.73876196 1665.165507
November
32
1700
1687.806386 1677.464557 1698.148215 41.36731732 1653.705382 46.29461774 2143.191632
Desember
33
1780
1761.561277 1744.741933 1778.380621 67.27737645 1739.515533 40.48446739
Januari
34
1832
1817.912255 1803.278191
1832.54632
58.53625789 1845.657998
-13.6579978 186.5409026
Februari
35
1705
1727.582451 1742.721599 1712.443303
-60.5565919 1891.082578
-186.082578 34626.72576
Maret
36
2050
1985.51649
April
37
2157
2122.703298 2085.554141 2159.852455 148.5966288 2228.311381
Jumlah
41906
1636.097239
1626.4427
1641.96662
-24.1655074
583.971748
1638.9921
1936.957512 2034.075468 194.2359129 1651.886711 398.1132888 158494.1907
-71.3113814 5085.313113
395338.1703
Universitas Sumatera Utara
Lampiran.8
Tabel Pemulusan Eksponensial Linier Satu Parameter Dari Brown Menggunakan α = 0,9 Pada Data Jumlah Pelanggan
Kartu Kredit
Bulan
April
Periode
1
102
102
102
Mei
2
178
170.4
163.56
177.24
61.56
Juni
3
230
224.04
217.992
230.088
54.432
238.8
-8.8
77.44
Juli
4
305
296.904
289.0128
304.7952
71.0208
284.52
20.48
419.4304
Agustus
5
399
388.7904
378.81264
398.76816
89.79984
375.816
23.184
537.497856
September
6
462
454.67904
447.0924
462.26568
68.27976
488.568
-26.568
705.858624
Oktober
7
537
528.767904
73.5079536
530.54544
6.45456
41.66134479
November
8
580
574.8767904 569.4491467 580.3044341 48.84879312
610.443408
-30.443408
926.8010907
Desember
9
632
626.287679
620.6038258 631.9715323 51.15467909 629.1532272
2.8467728
8.104115375
Januari
10
721
711.5287679 702.4362737 720.6212621 81.83244789 683.1262114 37.87378864 1434.423866
Februari
11
701
702.0528768 702.0912165 702.0145371
Maret
12
789
780.3052877 772.4838806 788.1266948 70.39266408 701.6694799 87.33052011 7626.619743
April
13
828
823.2305288 818.1558639 828.3051936 45.67198339 858.5193589
520.6003536 536.9354544
-0.34505721
802.45371
-101.45371
10292.85527
-30.5193589 931.4312663
Universitas Sumatera Utara
Mei
14
1090
1063.323053 1038.806334 1087.839772
220.65047
873.977177
Juni
15
1055
1055.832305 1054.129708 1057.534902 15.32337417 1308.490242
Juli
16
1128
1120.783231 1114.117878 1127.448583 59.98817013 1072.858277 55.14172341
Agustus
17
1161
1156.978323 1152.692279 1161.264368 38.57440029 1187.436753
September
18
1207
1201.997832 1197.067277 1206.928388 44.37499836 1199.838768 7.161232186 51.28324642
Oktober
19
1253
1247.899783 1242.816533 1252.983034 45.74925567 1251.303386 1.696613966
November
20
1329
1320.889978 1313.082634 1328.697323 70.26610115
Desember
21
1359
1355.188998 1350.978361 1359.399634 37.89572767 1398.963424
Januari
22
1425
1418.0189
1411.314846 1424.722954 60.33648452 1397.295362 27.70463809 767.5469715
Februari
23
1267
1282.10189
1295.023186 1269.180594
Maret
24
1308
April
25
Mei
1298.73229
216.022823
46665.86007
-253.490242 64257.30269
3040.60966
-26.4367529 698.9019039
2.87849895
30.26771047 916.1342972
-39.963424
1597.075261
-116.291660 1485.059438
-218.059438 47549.91856
1305.410189 1304.371489 1306.448889
9.34830308
1152.888934
155.111066
24059.44279
1316
1314.941019 1313.884066 1315.997972
9.51257722
1315.797192
0.20280758
0.041130914
26
1350
1346.494102 1343.233098 1349.755105 29.34903241 1325.510549 24.48945086 599.7332032
Juni
27
1473
1460.34941
Juli
28
1597
1583.334941 1569.865225 1596.804657 121.2274458 1577.465722 19.53427791 381.5880135
1448.637779 1472.061041 105.4046807 1379.104138
93.8958621
8816.432919
Universitas Sumatera Utara
Agustus
29
1623
1619.033494 1614.116667 1623.950321 44.25144236 1718.032103
-95.032103
September
30
1636
1634.303349 1632.284681 1636.322018 18.16801401 1668.201763
-32.2017634 1036.953565
Oktober
31
1641
1640.330335
1639.52577
1641.1349
7.241088379 1654.490032
-13.4900316 181.9809538
November
32
1700
1694.033033 1688.582307
1699.48376
49.05653754 1648.375989
51.6240113
Desember
33
1780
1771.403303 1763.121204 1779.685403 74.53889662 1748.540297 31.45970258 989.7128863
Januari
34
1832
1825.94033
Februari
35
1705
1717.094033 1727.350471 1706.837595
Maret
36
2050
2016.709403
1987.77351
April
37
2157
2142.97094
2127.451197 2158.490683 139.6776872 2306.068335
Jumlah
41906
1819.658418 1832.222243 56.53721395
1854.2243
9031.100608
2665.038543
-22.2242996 493.9194926
-92.3079462 1888.759457
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2045.645296 260.4230386 1614.529648 435.4703516 189634.4271
-149.068335 22221.36853
482428.9125
Universitas Sumatera Utara