Claws981.ppt 839KB Jun 23 2011 10:26:16 AM

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Computing Laws

Computer Industry Laws, Forces, and Heuristics… Or,

Why computers are like they are and are likely to be.

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Computing Laws

Outline

 Inventions, forces & laws

– _{The two great inventions: Computer & IC} – _{The force, quest and drive of cyberization} – _{Resulting computer classes and}

their supporting industries

– _{The market support that drives it all}

 Technology to define new classes

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Computing Laws

The two great inventions

 The computer (1946).

Computers supplement and substitute for all other info processors, including humans

– _{Computers are built from other computers in a recursive}

fashion

– _{Processors, memories, switching, and transduction are}

the primitives

 The Transistor (1946) and subsequent Integrated

Circuit (1957).

– _{Computers are composed of a set of well-defined}

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Computing Laws Computing Laws Region/ Region/ Intranet Intranet Campus Campus Home… Home… buildingsbuildings Body Body World World Continent Continent

Everything cyberizable will be

in Cyberspace and covered

by a hierarchy of computers!

Fractal Cyberspace: a network of … networks of … platforms

Cars…

phys. nets

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Computing Laws

Cyberization: interface to all bits and process information

 Coupling to all information and

information processors

 Pure bits e.g. printed matter

 Bit tokens e.g. money

 State: places, things, and people

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Computing Laws Computing Laws

“

”

Vannevar Bush c1945

There will always be plenty of things to compute ...

With millions of people doing complicated things.

memex … stores all his books, records, and

communications, and ... can be consulted with

speed and flexibility

Matchbook sized, $.05 encyclopedia

Speech to text

Head mounted camera, dry photography

”

“

”

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Computing Laws

 Transistor density doubles

every 18 months

60% increase per year

– _{Chip density transistors/die} – Micro processor speeds

 Exponential growth:

– _{The past does not matter}

– _{10x here, 10x there … means REAL change}

 PC costs decline faster than any other

platform

– _{Volume and learning curves}

– _{PCs are the building bricks of all future systems}

Moore’s First Law

128KB 128KB 128MB 128MB 2000 2000 8KB 8KB 1MB 1MB 8MB 8MB 1GB 1GB 1970

1970 19801980 19901990

1M 16M16M

bits: 1K

bits: 1K 4K4K 16K16K 64K64K 256K256K 4M4M 64M64M 256M256M

1 chip memory size

( 2 MB to 32 MB)

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Computing Laws

Computer components must all evolve at the same rate

 Amdahl’s law: one instruction per second

requires one byte of memory and one bit per second of I/O

 Processor speed has evolved at 60%  Storage evolves at 60%

 Wide Area Network speed evolves at 60%  Local Area Network speed evolved 26-60%  Grove’s Law: Plain Old Telephone Service

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Computing Laws

Bell’s law of computer class

formation to cover Cyberspace

 New computer platforms emerge based on

chip density evolution

 Computer classes require new platforms,

networks, and cyberization

 New apps and content develop around each

new class

 Each class becomes a vertically disintegrated

industry based on hardware and software standards

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Computing Laws

Bell’s Evolution Of Computer Classes

Technology enables two evolutionary paths:

1. constant performance, decreasing cost

2. constant price, increasing performance

1.26 = 2x/3 yrs -- 10x/decade; 1/1.26 = .8

1.6 = 4x/3 yrs --100x/decade; 1/1.6 = .62

Mini Mini ?? ?? Time Time Mainframes (central) Mainframes (central) PCs (personals) PCs (personals) L o g p ri c e L o g p ri c e WSs WSs

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Computing Laws

Platform, Interface, & Network Computer Class Enablers

N et w o rk In te rf a ce P la tf o rm “The Computer” Mainframe tube, core, drum, tape, batch O/S direct > batch Mini & Timesharing SSI-MSI, disk, timeshare O/S terminals via commands POTS PC/WS micro, floppy, disk, bit-map display, mouse, dist’d O/S WIMP LAN Web browser, telecomputer, tv computer PC, scalable servers, Web, HTML Internet

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Computing Laws

•

Bell’s Nine Computer Price Tiers

Super server: costs more than $100,000 “Mainframe”: costs more than $1 million

an array of processors, disks, tapes, comm ports 1$: embeddables e.g. greeting card 10$: wrist watch & wallet computers

100$: pocket/ palm computers 1,000$: portable computers

10,000$: personal computers (desktop) 100,000$: departmental computers (closet) 1,000,000$: site computers (glass house)

10,000,000$: regional computers (glass castle) 100,000,000$: national centers

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Computing Laws

Computer Industry 1982

Solutions

Applications

Computers

Processors

IBM

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Computing Laws Computing Laws  Consult  Apps  Apps  Dbases  OS  Network  Periph  Computers  Micros  Solutions

Andersen, EDS, KPMG, Lante, etc.

Microsoft, Lotus, WordPerfect, etc.

Microsoft, Apple, Sun, Novell

Comshare, D&B, PeopleSoft, SAP

HP, Canon, Lexmark, Seagate

Novell, Microsoft, Banyan

IBM, Compaq, DEC, Apple, many others

Intel, AMD, Motorola, others

Informix, Ingres, Oracle, Sybase,etc.

EDS, FDC, BTG, API, DataFocus, HFSI

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Computing Laws

Economics-based laws determine the market

 Demand: doubles as price declines by 20%

 Learning curves: 10-15% cost decline with 2X units  Bill’s Law for the economics of PC software

 Nathan’s Laws of Software -- the virtuous circle  Metcalfe’s Law of the “value of a network”

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Computing Laws

Software Economics: Bill’s Law

 Bill Joy’s law (Sun):

don’t write software for <100,000 platforms

@$10 million engineering expense, $1,000 price

 Bill Gate’s law:

don’t write software for <1,000,000 platforms @$10M engineering expense, $100 price

 Examples:

–_{UNIX versus Windows NT: $3,500 versus $500}

–_{Oracle versus SQL-Server: $100,000 versus $6,000} –No spreadsheet or presentation pack on UNIX/VMS/...

 Commoditization of base software and hardware Price

Price ₌₌ Fixed_costFixed_cost Marginal _costMarginal _cost Units

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Computing Laws

Computing LawsIn

nova

tion

The Virtuous Economic Cycle that drives the PC industry

Volu

Com

peti_tion

Standards

Util

ity/v

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Computing Laws

Nathan’s Laws of software

1. Software is a gas. It expands to fill the container it is in

2. Software grows until it becomes limited by Moore’s Law

3. Software growth makes Moore’s Law possible

4. Software is only limited by human ambition and expectation

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Computing Laws

Metcalf’s Law

Network Utility = Users2

 How many connections can it

make?

– _{1 user: no utility}

– 100,000 users: a few contacts – _{1 million users: many on Net}

– 1 billion users: everyone on Net

 That is why the Internet is so “hot”

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Computing Laws

Capa

c. (s vc

& re

spon

se)

The Virtuous Cycle

that drives the BW quest

Appl

icat

ion

inno

vatio

n demUse_r and Internet (IP) ubiquity Exc ess ca pac_. -->_>B W

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Computing Laws Computing Laws Applications Applications Databases OS Switching Computers DSP Processors

Microsoft, Delrina, many others

Microsoft, Apple, Sun, Novell, LINUX

Ericsson, Aspect, Nortel, Octel, others

Dialogic, NMS, Rhetorex, others

Ericsson, Nortel, Bay, 3Com, Fore, others

Compaq, DEC, Dell, IBM, many others

Intel, AMD, Motorola, others

Informix, Microsoft, Oracle, Sybase, others

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Computing Laws

Hardware technology: processing, memory, networking, and new

interfaces enable the new computers

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Computing Laws

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Computing Laws

Some changes by 2001

 256 Mbit (32 Mbyte chip with computer)  LSI Logic is “System on a chip” co.

– _{64 M gates (>100 M transistors) today}

– _{Embeddable, low cost products (e.g. cameras, instruments)}

with processing, memory, net, I/O

 Mbit bandwidth will be like ISDN today

 New networks will form to ferry us amongh the “Islands of Cyberspace”

– _{PC, phone, fax (unfortunately), pager, radio/cell phone, home}

stuff, info appliances

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Computing Laws

Tera Giga Mega Kilo 1

1947 1957 1967 1977 1987 1997 2007

Extrapolation from 1950s: 20-30% growth per year

Storage

Backbone

Memory

MemoryProcessingProcessing

Telephone Service

17% / year

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Computing Laws

National Semiconductor Technology Roadmap (size) 1 10 100 1000 10000

1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010

M e m o ry s iz e ( M b yt e s/ ch ip ) & M tr a n si st o rs / ch ip 0 0.05 0.1 0.15 0.2 0.25 0.3 0.35 Mem(MBytes) Micros Mtr/chip Line width

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Computing Laws

National Storage Technology Roadmap (size, density, speed)

1 10 100 1000 10000 100000

1995 2000 2005

1 10 100 1000 10000 100000 3.5" Cap. (By tes )

1.3" Cap. (By tes ) Bits /s q. in.

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Computing Laws

Communication rate(t) in log₁₀(Kbps)

2005 1995 1985 1975 1965 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 POTS WAN LAN SAN/backpanels 1 Mb 1 Gb 1 Kb ??? ??? POTS @ 17%/year ISDN

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Computing Laws Computing Laws Microprocessor performance 100 G 10 G Giga 100 M 10 M Mega Kilo

1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

Peak Peak Advertised Advertised Performance Performance (PAP) (PAP) Moore’s Moore’s Law Law Real Applied Real Applied Performance Performance (RAP) (RAP) 41% Growth 41% Growth

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Computing Laws

Gains if 20, 40, & 60% / year

1.E+21 1.E+18 1.E+15 1.E+12 1.E +9 1.E+6

1995 2005 2015 2025 2035 2045

20%=

Teraops

40%= 40%=

Petaops Petaops

60%=

Exaops

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Computing Laws

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Computing Laws

Processor performance… also for mainframes and supers

1000 100 10 1 0.1 0.01

1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000

RISC shift RISC shift CMOS CMOS microprocessor microprocessor Bipolar Bipolar processors processors VAX VAX 9000 9000

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Computing Laws

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Computing Laws

Exponential change of 10X per decade causes real turmoil!

100000 10000 1000 100 $K 10 1 0.1 0.01

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

8 MB 8 MB 1 MB 1 MB 256 KB 256 KB 64 KB 64 KB 16 KB 16 KB Timeshared Timeshared systems systems Single-user Single-user systems systems

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Computing Laws

VAX Planning Model 1975: I didn’t believe it

 The model was very good

– 1978 timeshared $250K VAXen

cost about $8K in 1997!

 Costs declined > 20%

– _{users get more memory than predicted}

 Single user systems didn’t come down as

fast, unless you consider PDAs

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Computing Laws

Newer & cheaper always wins? … if it weren’t for the Law of Intertia

Old

New

Old

New

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Computing Laws

“The mainframe is dead! … and for sure this time!”

P R I C

Mainframe Mainframe

Server

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Computing Laws

The law of data and program inertia sustains platforms!

 The investment in programs and processes to use them, and

data exceed hardware costs

 The cost to switch among platforms e.g. IBM mainframe,

VMS, a VendorIX, or Windows/NT is determined by the data and programs

 The goal of hardware suppliers is

uniqueness to differentiate and lock-in

 The goals of software/database suppliers are: to differentiate

and lock-in and

operate on as many platforms as possible in order to be not tied to a hardware vendor

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Computing Laws

Will the need for high volume, higher performance micros

aka PCs continue?

 Speech... but some of that power will be

embedded in appliances

 Video requires extra-ordinary power,

especially to “understand”

 Video servers!

 The explosion of stored everything e.g.

photos, voice, video, requires more memory and processing

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Computing Laws

It’s the near-term platforms, stupid! (multimedia is finally happening)

 Text & 2D graphics -->> images, voice, & video  The WEB: being anywhere and doing anything

 Disk sizes and cost c1998

– _{$50-100 / GB}

– _{4 GB standard; CD-R; and 20-40 GB magneto-optic R/W}

 Document, picture, and video capture and compression

– _{10,000 to 250,000 pages / GB; 10,000 pictures / GB} – _{40-400 books / GB or $0.25-2.50 / book}

– _{Plethora of Video & digital cameras everywhere!}

 Voice and video compression*

– _{250 hours / GB}voice

– _{Stamp size-VHS: 12-50 hours / GB; DVD / HDTV: 0.5 hr / GB}

 Audio: Surround sound that is part of V-places

 Ubiquitous access: NetPC, WebTV, web & videophones

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Computing Laws

What if could or when can we store everything we’ve:

read/written, heard, and

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Computing Laws Computing Laws

“

”

Vannevar Bush c1945

There will always be plenty of things to compute ...

With millions of people doing complicated things.

memex … stores all his books, records, and

communications, and ... can be consulted with

speed and flexibility

Matchbook sized, $.05 encyclopedia

Speech to text

Head mounted camera, dry photography

”

“

”

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Computing Laws

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Computing Laws

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Computing Laws

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Computing Laws

10X in 40 years (6% per year)

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Computing Laws

Library Volume Growth 10X in 150 years

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Computing Laws

Some bits at Library of Congress

 Scanned LC 1PB

assumes 6B pages

 13M photos 13TB  4M maps 200TB

 500K movies 500TB

 3.5M recordings 2,000TB  5 Bpeople or 2 GB per person

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Computing Laws

Other bits per year

 Cinema 5K 200TB

 Images (all) 52G 520PB

 Broadcast 1500st 200/10PB

 Recordings 100K 60TB

 Telephone 500Gmin 400PB

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Computing Laws

Estimate of 1998 storage ships http://www.lesk.com

 Disks25B 250PB

 Raid 13B 65PB

 Optical 0.5B 25PB

 Jukebox 5B 250PB

 Tape 10B 10,000PB -10EB

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Computing Laws

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Computing Laws

Static information storage sizes

Documents image compressed #/GB

business card 5 K 500 200K;2M

page or fax 100 K 4K 10K;250K

snapshot 3 M 100 K 10,000

350 page book 25 M 2 M 40;500

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Computing Laws

Storing all we’ve read, heard, & seen

Human data-types /hr /day (/4yr) /lifetime read text, few pictures 200 K 2 -10 M/G 60-300 G speech text @120wpm 43 K 0.5 M/G 15 G

speech @1KBps 3.6 M 40 M/G 1.2 T

video-like 50Kb/s POTS 22 M .25 G/T 25 T video 200Kb/s VHS-lite 90 M 1 G/T 100 T video 4.3Mb/s HDTV/DVD 1.8 G 20 G/T 1 P

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Computing Laws

Some future computers and networks

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Computing Laws

Some predictable computers, networks, & industries

 Something NON-predictable

 System-on-a-chip industry, including WINS (Wireless Integrated

Network of Sensors)

 Digital still and video cameras

 Dis-integrated telephony (gateways, IP dialing)  The “nc” (NC for LANs, WebTV, WebPhone)  Videophones become ubiquitous

 Scalable Network And Platforms

 Telework & Home Area Nets: homes, SoHos  Body Area Nets: “on body”, “Guardian Angel”

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Computing Laws

2001 and the web will be about as it is today…NOT

 Bet: At least some appliance will be

available and selling at the rate of 2M units per year averaged over the last

quarter of 2000 will have been introduced that no one has predicted at no 1997

conference about the future of the

Internet, excluding cameras, television, and telephones that access the web.

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Computing Laws

Larry Ellison: NCs will outsell PCs 9:1 by 2000.

 NCs include those embedded in TV sets,

phones, and used as PC alternatives.

 Bet: While the combined set of computers

connected to the web (e.g. instruments,

cameras, tv sets, appliances, printers, phones) may be greater than pure PCs, the number of person-driven access devices that are NOT PCs will be less than 1:1 by the end of 2000.

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Computing Laws

SNAP: Scalable Networks and Platforms

 Standard (I.e. commodity) hardware  SAN (System Area Network)

alternatives

 Common operating system for

platform, reducing vendor and customer costs

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Computing Laws

Scaling dimensions include:

 reliability… including always up  number of nodes

– _{most cost-effective system built from best nodes… PCs with NO}

backplane

– _{highest throughput distributes disks to each node versus into a}

single node

 location within a region or continent  time-scale I.e. machine generations

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Computing Laws

SNAP Systems circa 2000 Local &

global data comm

world

ATM & Ethernet: PC, workstation, & servers Wide-area global ATM network Legacy mainframe & minicomputer servers & terminals

Centralized & departmental servers built from

PCs

scalable computers built from PCs + CAN

TC=TV+PC home ... (CATV or ATM

or satellite)

???

Portables

A space, time (bandwidth), generation, and reliability scalable environment Person servers (PCs) Mobile Nets Telecomputers aka Internet Terminals

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Computing Laws

Do any hardware systems vendors with proprietary

microprocessors and O/Ss see the change?

Probably not. The web

business is masking it!

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Computing Laws

Telework = work + telepresence “being there while being here”

 The teleworkplace is just an office with limited

– _{Communication, computer,}_and_networksupport! – _{Team interactions for work! Until we understand in situ}

collaboration, CSCW is a “rat hole”!

– _{Serendipitous social interaction in hallway, office coffee place,}

meeting room, etc.

– _{Administrative support for helping, filing, sending, etc.}

 Telepresentations and communication

 Computing environment … being always there, administrivia,

phones,

information (especially paper) management  SOHOs & COMOHOs is a high growth market

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Computing Laws

Teleworking CW 9/1/97

 15% 2 yr increase, 11 Mpeople, avg. 19 Hr/wk

 50% in U.S.; 22% have policies on screening, worker

expectations, IP etc. protection, liability

 Are telecommuters more productive?

– _{30% yes} – _{50% same} – _{4% no}

– _{16% don’t know}

 Are telecommuters more accessible?

– _{13% yes} – _{40% same} – _{40% more}

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Computing Laws

Steve Mann in

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Computing Laws

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Computing Laws

Medtronics Implanted Cardioplastic

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Computing Laws

The growth of the computer industry (Gordon’s swag 12/97)

 Machine class 199219951998 2001  Handheld/mobile > >>>

 PC (portables) >> >>  PC (desktop) => ==  Telecomputer -- >>>  Network Computer -- >>>  TC (TV Computer) nana >>>>  Workstation == <<  VendorIX server >>> =<  Mainframe << <<<  Super =< <<<  Scalable PCs => >>>>

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Computing Laws

Telework = work + telepresence

“being there while being here”

 The teleworkplace is just an office with limited

– _{Communication, computer,}

_and

_network

support!

– _{Team interactions for work! Until we understand in situ}

collaboration, CSCW is a “rat hole”!

– _{Serendipitous social interaction in hallway, office coffee place,}

meeting room, etc.

– _{Administrative support for helping, filing, sending, etc.}

 Telepresentations and communication

 Computing environment … being always there,

administrivia, phones,

information (especially paper) management

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Computing Laws

Teleworking CW 9/1/97



15% 2 yr increase, 11 Mpeople, avg. 19 Hr/wk



50% in U.S.; 22% have policies on screening, worker

Implanted

Cardioplastic

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

Mainframe

<<

<<<



Super

=<

<<<

