Analisis Pengendalian Persediaan Bahan Baku dalam Meminimumkan Biaya Persediaan dengan Metode EOQ (Studi Kasus: PT. Sinar Sosro Medan)
52
Lampiran 1. Tabel Z
Universitas Sumatera Utara
53
Universitas Sumatera Utara
54
Lampiran 3 : Tabel Z
Universitas Sumatera Utara
55
Universitas Sumatera Utara
56
Lampiran 4. Tabel D
Kolmogorov-Smirnov Test
(If calculated ratio is greater than value shown, then reject the null hypothesis at the
chosen level of confidence.)
SAMPLE
SIZE
(N)
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
25
30
35
OVER 35
LEVEL OF SIGNIFICANCE FOR D
F0(X) - Sn(X) ]
.20
.15
.10
.900
.925
.950
.684
.726
.776
.565
.597
.642
.494
.525
.564
.446
.474
.510
.410
.436
.470
.381
.405
.438
.358
.381
.411
.339
.360
.388
.322
.342
.368
.307
.326
.352
.295
.313
.338
.284
.302
.325
.274
.292
.314
.266
.283
.304
.258
.274
.295
.250
.266
.286
.244
.259
.278
.237
.252
.272
.231
.246
.264
.210
.220
.240
.190
.200
.220
.180
.190
.210
1.07
1.14
1.22
___
___
___
N
N
N
= MAXIMUM [
.05
.975
.842
.708
.624
.565
.521
.486
.457
.432
.410
.391
.375
.361
.349
.338
.328
.318
.309
.301
.294
.270
.240
.230
1.36
___
N
.01
.995
.929
.828
.733
.669
.618
.577
.543
.514
.490
.468
.450
.433
.418
.404
.392
.381
.371
.363
.356
.320
.290
.270
1.63
___
N
Lampiran 5. Tabel perbandingan MAPE, MSE dan MAD
Universitas Sumatera Utara
57
Trend Analysis Plot for NILAI
Linear Trend Model
Yt = 314541 - 534,692*t
Variable
A ctual
Fits
Forecasts
350000
A ccuracy Measures
MA PE
10
MA D
28725
MSD
1064231186
NILAI
325000
300000
275000
250000
1
5
10
15
20
25
Index
30
35
40
45
Trend Analysis for NILAI
Data
Length
NMissing
NILAI
36
0
Fitted Trend Equation
Yt = 314541 - 534,692*t
Accuracy Measures
MAPE
MAD
MSE
10
28725
1064231186
Forecasts
Period
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
Forecast
294757
294222
293688
293153
292618
292083
291549
291014
290479
289945
289410
288875
Universitas Sumatera Utara
58
Trend Analysis Plot for NILAI
Quadratic Trend Model
Yt = 323496 - 1949*t + 38,2*t**2
Variable
A ctual
Fits
Forecasts
350000
A ccuracy Measures
MA PE
10
MA D
28763
MSD
1050655176
NILAI
325000
300000
275000
250000
1
5
10
15
20
25
Index
30
35
40
45
Trend Analysis for NILAI
Data
Length
NMissing
NILAI
36
0
Fitted Trend Equation
Yt = 323496 - 1949*t + 38,2*t**2
Accuracy Measures
MAPE
MAD
MSE
10
28763
1050655176
Forecasts
Period
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
Forecast
303712
304630
305624
306694
307841
309065
310364
311740
313193
314722
316328
318009
Universitas Sumatera Utara
59
DEKOMPOSISI
Additive Model
Variable
A ctual
Fits
Trend
Forecasts
350000
NILAI
325000
A ccuracy Measures
MA PE
4
MA D
12165
MSD
322028275
300000
275000
250000
1
5
10
15
20
25
Index
30
35
40
45
Time Series Decomposition for NILAI
Additive Model
Data
Length
NMissing
NILAI
36
0
Fitted Trend Equation
Yt = 314438 - 529,141*t
Seasonal Indices
Period
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
Index
-2760,5
-38515,1
32110,1
-35043,8
29764,4
28829,9
36848,1
-51213,6
10210,0
17471,2
-12224,4
-15476,3
Accuracy Measures
MAPE
MAD
MSE
4
12165
322028275
Universitas Sumatera Utara
60
Forecasts
Period
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
Forecast
292099
255815
325911
258228
322508
321044
328533
239942
300837
307569
277344
273563
DEKOMPOSISI
Multiplicative Model
Variable
A ctual
Fits
Trend
Forecasts
350000
NILAI
325000
A ccuracy Measures
MA PE
4
MA D
12003
MSD
325280227
300000
275000
250000
1
5
10
15
20
25
Index
30
35
40
45
Time Series Decomposition for NILAI
Multiplicative Model
Data
Length
NMissing
NILAI
36
0
Fitted Trend Equation
Yt = 315191 - 556,659*t
Seasonal Indices
Period
1
2
3
Index
0,99052
0,87035
1,10726
Universitas Sumatera Utara
61
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
0,88299
1,09909
1,09643
1,12195
0,83183
1,03469
1,05766
0,95897
0,94826
Accuracy Measures
MAPE
MAD
MSE
4
12003
325280227
Forecasts
Period
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
Forecast
291801
255917
324960
258649
321338
319951
326773
241810
300205
306281
277169
273547
Moving Average Plot for NILAI
375000
Variable
A ctual
Fits
Forecasts
95,0% PI
350000
Mov ing A v erage
Length 12
NILAI
325000
A ccuracy Measures
MA PE
10
MA D
29052
MSD
1119107155
300000
275000
250000
1
5
10
15
20
25
Index
30
35
40
45
Moving Average for NILAI
Data
NILAI
Universitas Sumatera Utara
62
Length
NMissing
36
0
Moving Average
Length
12
Accuracy Measures
MAPE
MAD
MSE
10
29052
1119107155
Forecasts
Period
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
Forecast
302073
302073
302073
302073
302073
302073
302073
302073
302073
302073
302073
302073
Lower
236507
236507
236507
236507
236507
236507
236507
236507
236507
236507
236507
236507
Upper
367640
367640
367640
367640
367640
367640
367640
367640
367640
367640
367640
367640
Smoothing Plot for NILAI
Single Exponential Method
380000
Variable
A ctual
Fits
Forecasts
95,0% PI
360000
340000
Smoothing Constant
A lpha
0,0401788
NILAI
320000
A ccuracy Measures
MA PE
10
MA D
29356
MSD
1140365919
300000
280000
260000
240000
220000
1
5
10
15
20
25
Index
30
35
40
45
Single Exponential Smoothing for NILAI
Universitas Sumatera Utara
63
Data
Length
NILAI
36
Smoothing Constant
Alpha
0,0401788
Accuracy Measures
MAPE
MAD
MSE
10
29356
1140365919
Forecasts
Period
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
Forecast
302337
302337
302337
302337
302337
302337
302337
302337
302337
302337
302337
302337
Lower
230415
230415
230415
230415
230415
230415
230415
230415
230415
230415
230415
230415
Upper
374258
374258
374258
374258
374258
374258
374258
374258
374258
374258
374258
374258
Smoothing Plot for NILAI
Double Exponential Method
500000
Variable
A ctual
Fits
Forecasts
95,0% PI
NILAI
400000
Smoothing Constants
A lpha (lev el)
0,425018
Gamma (trend)
0,075163
300000
A ccuracy Measures
MA PE
11
MA D
31726
MSD
1588100761
200000
100000
1
5
10
15
20
25 30
Index
35
40
45
Double Exponential Smoothing for NILAI
Data
Length
NILAI
36
Universitas Sumatera Utara
64
Smoothing Constants
Alpha (level)
Gamma (trend)
0,425018
0,075163
Accuracy Measures
MAPE
MAD
MSE
11
31726
1588100761
Forecasts
Period
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
Forecast
287015
285698
284380
283062
281745
280427
279109
277792
276474
275156
273839
272521
Lower
209288
200477
190875
180675
170018
159011
147730
136234
124566
112759
100837
88821
Upper
364743
370919
377885
385450
393471
401843
410488
419349
428382
437554
446840
456221
Winters' Method Plot for NILAI
Multiplicative Method
NILAI
400000
350000
Variable
A ctual
Fits
Forecasts
95,0% PI
300000
Smoothing Constants
A lpha (lev el)
0,2
Gamma (trend)
0,2
Delta (seasonal)
0,2
A ccuracy Measures
MA PE
5
MA D
15788
MSD
367019059
250000
200000
1
5
10
15
20
25
30
Index
35
40
45
Winters' Method for NILAI
Multiplicative Method
Data
NILAI
Universitas Sumatera Utara
65
Length
36
Smoothing Constants
Alpha (level)
Gamma (trend)
Delta (seasonal)
0,2
0,2
0,2
Accuracy Measures
MAPE
MAD
MSE
5
15788
367019059
Forecasts
Period
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
Forecast
294487
261484
336734
288042
335006
333013
336735
257031
325670
317660
285978
279725
Lower
255807
222198
296771
247338
293497
290640
293443
212768
280387
271311
238521
231120
Upper
333168
300771
376696
328746
376515
375386
380027
301294
370953
364009
333435
328330
Universitas Sumatera Utara
Lampiran 1. Tabel Z
Universitas Sumatera Utara
53
Universitas Sumatera Utara
54
Lampiran 3 : Tabel Z
Universitas Sumatera Utara
55
Universitas Sumatera Utara
56
Lampiran 4. Tabel D
Kolmogorov-Smirnov Test
(If calculated ratio is greater than value shown, then reject the null hypothesis at the
chosen level of confidence.)
SAMPLE
SIZE
(N)
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
25
30
35
OVER 35
LEVEL OF SIGNIFICANCE FOR D
F0(X) - Sn(X) ]
.20
.15
.10
.900
.925
.950
.684
.726
.776
.565
.597
.642
.494
.525
.564
.446
.474
.510
.410
.436
.470
.381
.405
.438
.358
.381
.411
.339
.360
.388
.322
.342
.368
.307
.326
.352
.295
.313
.338
.284
.302
.325
.274
.292
.314
.266
.283
.304
.258
.274
.295
.250
.266
.286
.244
.259
.278
.237
.252
.272
.231
.246
.264
.210
.220
.240
.190
.200
.220
.180
.190
.210
1.07
1.14
1.22
___
___
___
N
N
N
= MAXIMUM [
.05
.975
.842
.708
.624
.565
.521
.486
.457
.432
.410
.391
.375
.361
.349
.338
.328
.318
.309
.301
.294
.270
.240
.230
1.36
___
N
.01
.995
.929
.828
.733
.669
.618
.577
.543
.514
.490
.468
.450
.433
.418
.404
.392
.381
.371
.363
.356
.320
.290
.270
1.63
___
N
Lampiran 5. Tabel perbandingan MAPE, MSE dan MAD
Universitas Sumatera Utara
57
Trend Analysis Plot for NILAI
Linear Trend Model
Yt = 314541 - 534,692*t
Variable
A ctual
Fits
Forecasts
350000
A ccuracy Measures
MA PE
10
MA D
28725
MSD
1064231186
NILAI
325000
300000
275000
250000
1
5
10
15
20
25
Index
30
35
40
45
Trend Analysis for NILAI
Data
Length
NMissing
NILAI
36
0
Fitted Trend Equation
Yt = 314541 - 534,692*t
Accuracy Measures
MAPE
MAD
MSE
10
28725
1064231186
Forecasts
Period
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
Forecast
294757
294222
293688
293153
292618
292083
291549
291014
290479
289945
289410
288875
Universitas Sumatera Utara
58
Trend Analysis Plot for NILAI
Quadratic Trend Model
Yt = 323496 - 1949*t + 38,2*t**2
Variable
A ctual
Fits
Forecasts
350000
A ccuracy Measures
MA PE
10
MA D
28763
MSD
1050655176
NILAI
325000
300000
275000
250000
1
5
10
15
20
25
Index
30
35
40
45
Trend Analysis for NILAI
Data
Length
NMissing
NILAI
36
0
Fitted Trend Equation
Yt = 323496 - 1949*t + 38,2*t**2
Accuracy Measures
MAPE
MAD
MSE
10
28763
1050655176
Forecasts
Period
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
Forecast
303712
304630
305624
306694
307841
309065
310364
311740
313193
314722
316328
318009
Universitas Sumatera Utara
59
DEKOMPOSISI
Additive Model
Variable
A ctual
Fits
Trend
Forecasts
350000
NILAI
325000
A ccuracy Measures
MA PE
4
MA D
12165
MSD
322028275
300000
275000
250000
1
5
10
15
20
25
Index
30
35
40
45
Time Series Decomposition for NILAI
Additive Model
Data
Length
NMissing
NILAI
36
0
Fitted Trend Equation
Yt = 314438 - 529,141*t
Seasonal Indices
Period
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
Index
-2760,5
-38515,1
32110,1
-35043,8
29764,4
28829,9
36848,1
-51213,6
10210,0
17471,2
-12224,4
-15476,3
Accuracy Measures
MAPE
MAD
MSE
4
12165
322028275
Universitas Sumatera Utara
60
Forecasts
Period
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
Forecast
292099
255815
325911
258228
322508
321044
328533
239942
300837
307569
277344
273563
DEKOMPOSISI
Multiplicative Model
Variable
A ctual
Fits
Trend
Forecasts
350000
NILAI
325000
A ccuracy Measures
MA PE
4
MA D
12003
MSD
325280227
300000
275000
250000
1
5
10
15
20
25
Index
30
35
40
45
Time Series Decomposition for NILAI
Multiplicative Model
Data
Length
NMissing
NILAI
36
0
Fitted Trend Equation
Yt = 315191 - 556,659*t
Seasonal Indices
Period
1
2
3
Index
0,99052
0,87035
1,10726
Universitas Sumatera Utara
61
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
0,88299
1,09909
1,09643
1,12195
0,83183
1,03469
1,05766
0,95897
0,94826
Accuracy Measures
MAPE
MAD
MSE
4
12003
325280227
Forecasts
Period
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
Forecast
291801
255917
324960
258649
321338
319951
326773
241810
300205
306281
277169
273547
Moving Average Plot for NILAI
375000
Variable
A ctual
Fits
Forecasts
95,0% PI
350000
Mov ing A v erage
Length 12
NILAI
325000
A ccuracy Measures
MA PE
10
MA D
29052
MSD
1119107155
300000
275000
250000
1
5
10
15
20
25
Index
30
35
40
45
Moving Average for NILAI
Data
NILAI
Universitas Sumatera Utara
62
Length
NMissing
36
0
Moving Average
Length
12
Accuracy Measures
MAPE
MAD
MSE
10
29052
1119107155
Forecasts
Period
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
Forecast
302073
302073
302073
302073
302073
302073
302073
302073
302073
302073
302073
302073
Lower
236507
236507
236507
236507
236507
236507
236507
236507
236507
236507
236507
236507
Upper
367640
367640
367640
367640
367640
367640
367640
367640
367640
367640
367640
367640
Smoothing Plot for NILAI
Single Exponential Method
380000
Variable
A ctual
Fits
Forecasts
95,0% PI
360000
340000
Smoothing Constant
A lpha
0,0401788
NILAI
320000
A ccuracy Measures
MA PE
10
MA D
29356
MSD
1140365919
300000
280000
260000
240000
220000
1
5
10
15
20
25
Index
30
35
40
45
Single Exponential Smoothing for NILAI
Universitas Sumatera Utara
63
Data
Length
NILAI
36
Smoothing Constant
Alpha
0,0401788
Accuracy Measures
MAPE
MAD
MSE
10
29356
1140365919
Forecasts
Period
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
Forecast
302337
302337
302337
302337
302337
302337
302337
302337
302337
302337
302337
302337
Lower
230415
230415
230415
230415
230415
230415
230415
230415
230415
230415
230415
230415
Upper
374258
374258
374258
374258
374258
374258
374258
374258
374258
374258
374258
374258
Smoothing Plot for NILAI
Double Exponential Method
500000
Variable
A ctual
Fits
Forecasts
95,0% PI
NILAI
400000
Smoothing Constants
A lpha (lev el)
0,425018
Gamma (trend)
0,075163
300000
A ccuracy Measures
MA PE
11
MA D
31726
MSD
1588100761
200000
100000
1
5
10
15
20
25 30
Index
35
40
45
Double Exponential Smoothing for NILAI
Data
Length
NILAI
36
Universitas Sumatera Utara
64
Smoothing Constants
Alpha (level)
Gamma (trend)
0,425018
0,075163
Accuracy Measures
MAPE
MAD
MSE
11
31726
1588100761
Forecasts
Period
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
Forecast
287015
285698
284380
283062
281745
280427
279109
277792
276474
275156
273839
272521
Lower
209288
200477
190875
180675
170018
159011
147730
136234
124566
112759
100837
88821
Upper
364743
370919
377885
385450
393471
401843
410488
419349
428382
437554
446840
456221
Winters' Method Plot for NILAI
Multiplicative Method
NILAI
400000
350000
Variable
A ctual
Fits
Forecasts
95,0% PI
300000
Smoothing Constants
A lpha (lev el)
0,2
Gamma (trend)
0,2
Delta (seasonal)
0,2
A ccuracy Measures
MA PE
5
MA D
15788
MSD
367019059
250000
200000
1
5
10
15
20
25
30
Index
35
40
45
Winters' Method for NILAI
Multiplicative Method
Data
NILAI
Universitas Sumatera Utara
65
Length
36
Smoothing Constants
Alpha (level)
Gamma (trend)
Delta (seasonal)
0,2
0,2
0,2
Accuracy Measures
MAPE
MAD
MSE
5
15788
367019059
Forecasts
Period
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
Forecast
294487
261484
336734
288042
335006
333013
336735
257031
325670
317660
285978
279725
Lower
255807
222198
296771
247338
293497
290640
293443
212768
280387
271311
238521
231120
Upper
333168
300771
376696
328746
376515
375386
380027
301294
370953
364009
333435
328330
Universitas Sumatera Utara