Beijing000515.ppt 8435KB Jun 23 2011 01:01:30 PM
More Wheels of Reincarnation
Or A New PC+, www+ Era?
Infinite processing, memory,
and bandwidth
@ zero cost
Gordon Bell
Bay Area Research Center
Microsoft Corporation
Copyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray
PC+
The Highly Probable Future c2025
83 items from J. Coates, Futurist, Vol. 84, 1994
8.4 B, english speaking, personally tagged & identified, prosthetic assisted
and/or mutant, tense people who have access & control of their medical
records
Everything will be smart, responsive to environment.
–
–
–
–
–
A “managed”, physical and man-made world
–
–
Sensing of everything… challenge for science & engineering!
Fast broadband network
Smart appliances & AI
Tele-all: shop, vote, meet, work, etc.
Robots do everything, but there may be conflict with labor…
Reliable weather reports
“Many natural disasters e.g. floods, earthquakes, will be mitigated, controlled or
prevented”
Nobel prize to “economist” for “value of information”
No surprises. We can see 10 years, but not 20!
Copyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray
PC+
IP On Everything
Copyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray
PC+
poochi
Copyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray
PC+
TECHNOLOGY DEVELOPMENT
BIO INTELLIGENCE AGE
AGRICULTURAL
INDUSTRIAL
INFORMATION
CONSUMER ACCEPTANCE
BIOINTELLIGENCE
2000 BC
0
1500
1800
1900
2000 AD
TIME (year)
R. Satava 29 July 99
PC At An Inflection Point
Non-PC
PCs devices and Internet
Copyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray
PC+
TV/AV
Mobile
Companions
Consumer
PCs
The Dawn Of The PC-Plus Era,
Not The Post-PC Era…
devices aggregate via PCs!!!
Communications
Automation
& Security
Household
Management
PCTV a.k.a. MilliBillg
Using PCs to drive large screens
e.g. tv sets, Plasma Panels
Copyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray Copyright 1999 Microsoft Corporation
PC+
Another big bang?
Internet to TV and audio:
The Net, PC meet the TV
“milliBill”
Analog/digital cable distribution
Home
CATV
Ethernet Home network
Video
captur
e
PC broadcasts
are mixed into
home CATV in
analog and/or
MPEG digital
Basic ideas:
1. PC records or
plays
thru video
cable
channels.
2. PC “broadcasts”
art images,
webcams,
presentations,
videos, DVDs,
etc.
Settop
box
Images
Images from:
from:
http://www.nextmonet.com
http://www.nextmonet.com
AAgallery
gallery that
that sells
sells art
art on
on line
line
The Next Convergence
POTS connects to the Web
a.k.a. Phone-Web Gateways
Web Server
PSTN
Voice to WEB
Bridge
Copyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray
The
Web
DataBase
PC+
PC will prevail for the next decade
as the dominant platform…
its COTS or COTS’ AND www!
Moore’s Law increases performance; and
alternatively reduces prices
PC server clusters with low cost OS beat
proprietary switches, smPs, and DSMs
Home entertainment & control …
–
–
Very large disks (1TB by 2005)
to “store everything” personal
Screens to enhance use
Lack of last mile bandwidth to move pictures, data,
and interact favors home mainframes aka PCs
C = Commercial; C’ = Consumer
SNAP
… c1995
Scalable Network And Platforms
A View of Computing in 2000+
We all missed the impact of WWW!
Gordon Bell
Copyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray
Network
Platform
Jim Gray
PC+
How Will Future Computers Be Built?
Thesis: SNAP: Scalable Networks and Platforms
• Upsize from desktop to world-scale computer
• based on a few standard components
Network
Because:
• Moore’s law:
exponential progress
• Standardization & Commoditization
• Stratification and competition
When: Sooner than you think!
• Massive standardization gives massive use
• Economic forces are enormous
Platform
p
e
r
f
o
r
m
a
n
c
e
Volume drives simple,
cost to standard
price for
Stand-alone
platforms Desk tops
high speed
interconnect
Distributed
workstations
Clustered
Computers
PCs
1-4 processor mP
price
MPPs
1-20 processor mP
Copyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray
PC+
The economics of
operating systems and
databases
Copyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray
PC+
The Virtuous Economic Cycle
drives the PC industry… & Beowulf
Vo
lu
m
e
Co
m
pe
t
iti
o
n
Ut
ili
ty
/v
al
ue
Copyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray
DOJ
In
no
va
t io
n
Standards
PC+
The UNIX Trap:
creating the myth of “open systems”
“Standard” has meant different!
VendorIX platforms have created the “downsizing”
market that provides an apparent, cost reduction
Hardware platform vendors lock-in users with servers of
proprietary UNIX dialects and unique chips
to maintain margins for chip and UNIX development
VendorIX R & D costs $1.4 - $2 billion
Implied selling price $10 - 14 billion for $1.4 billion,
or a sales tax of 1 million UNIX units of $10,000
Users hostage with client-server, database, and apps
An implicit or unconscious cartel has formed that
maintains the industry status quo
Copyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray
PC+
SNAP Architecture----------
Copyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray
PC+
Computing
SNAP
built
entirely
Person
fromPerson
PCs
servers
servers
(PCs)
(PCs)
Portables
Wide-area
global
network
Mobile
Nets
Wide & Local
Area Networks
for: terminal,
PC, workstation,
& servers
???
TC=TV+PC
home ...
(CATV or ATM
or satellite)
Legacy
mainframes &
Legacy
minicomputers
mainframe
& terms
servers &
minicomputer
servers & terminals
A space, time
(bandwidth), &
generation scalable
environment
Copyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray
scalable computers
built from PCs
Centralized
&Centralized
departmental
uni& mP servers
&
departmental
(UNIX
& NT)
servers
buit
from
PCs
PC+
GB with NT, Compaq, & HP cluster
Copyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray
PC+
In a decade we can/will have:
more powerful personal computers
– processing 10-100x; multiprocessors-on-a-chip
–
–
–
adequate networking? PCs now operate at 1 Gbps
–
–
4x resolution (2K x 2K) displays to impact paper
Large, wall-sized and watch-sized displays
low cost, storage of one terabyte for personal use
ubiquitous access = today’s fast LANs
Competitive wireless networking
One chip, networked platforms e.g. light bulbs, cameras everywhere,
& managed by PCs!
Some well-defined platforms that compete with the PC for mind (time) and
market share
watch, pocket, body implant, home
Inevitable, continued cyberization… the challenge… interfacing platforms
and people.
High Performance Computing
A 60+ year view
Copyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray
PC+
Copyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray
PC+
Star Bridge
Copyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray
PC+
Linux super howls
Copyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray
PC+
Dead Supercomputer Society
Copyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray
PC+
Dead Supercomputer Society
ACRI
Alliant
American Supercomputer
Ametek
Applied Dynamics
Astronautics
BBN
CDC
Convex
Cray Computer
Cray Research
Culler-Harris
Culler Scientific
Cydrome
Dana/Ardent/Stellar/Stardent
Denelcor
Elexsi
ETA Systems
Evans and Sutherland Computer
Floating Point Systems
Galaxy YH-1
Goodyear Aerospace MPP
Gould NPL
Guiltech
Intel Scientific Computers
International Parallel Machines
Kendall Square Research
Key Computer Laboratories
MasPar
Meiko
Multiflow
Myrias
Numerix
Prisma
Tera
Thinking Machines
Saxpy
Scientific Computer Systems (SCS)
Soviet Supercomputers
Supertek
Supercomputer Systems
Suprenum
Vitesse Electronics
Steve Squires & Cray
Copyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray
PC+
1000
Bell Prize and
Future Peak
Tflops (t)
100
10
*IBM
Petaflops
study
target
1
NEC
0.1
CM2
0.01
0.001
0.0001
XMP
NCube
1985
1990
Copyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray
1995
2000
2005
2010
PC+
Top 10 tpc-c
Top two Compaq systems are:
1.1 & 1.5X faster than IBM SPs;
1/3 price of IBM
1/5 price of SUN
Copyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray
PC+
Courtesy of Dr. Thomas Sterling, Caltech
Courtesy of Dr. Thomas Sterling, Caltech
Contributions of Beowulf
An experiment in parallel computing systems
Established vision low cost high end computing
Demonstrated effectiveness of PC clusters for some (not all)
classes of applications
Provided networking software
Provided cluster management tools
Conveyed findings to broad community
Tutorials and the book
GB: Provided design standard to rally community!
Standards beget: books, trained people, software … virtuous cycle
Courtesy of Dr. Thomas Sterling, Caltech
High performance
architecture/program timeline
1950 .
1960 .
1970 .
Vtubes
Trans.
MSI(mini)
1980 .
1990 .
Micro RISC
2000
nMicr
Sequential programming---->-----------------------------(single execution stream)
Or A New PC+, www+ Era?
Infinite processing, memory,
and bandwidth
@ zero cost
Gordon Bell
Bay Area Research Center
Microsoft Corporation
Copyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray
PC+
The Highly Probable Future c2025
83 items from J. Coates, Futurist, Vol. 84, 1994
8.4 B, english speaking, personally tagged & identified, prosthetic assisted
and/or mutant, tense people who have access & control of their medical
records
Everything will be smart, responsive to environment.
–
–
–
–
–
A “managed”, physical and man-made world
–
–
Sensing of everything… challenge for science & engineering!
Fast broadband network
Smart appliances & AI
Tele-all: shop, vote, meet, work, etc.
Robots do everything, but there may be conflict with labor…
Reliable weather reports
“Many natural disasters e.g. floods, earthquakes, will be mitigated, controlled or
prevented”
Nobel prize to “economist” for “value of information”
No surprises. We can see 10 years, but not 20!
Copyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray
PC+
IP On Everything
Copyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray
PC+
poochi
Copyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray
PC+
TECHNOLOGY DEVELOPMENT
BIO INTELLIGENCE AGE
AGRICULTURAL
INDUSTRIAL
INFORMATION
CONSUMER ACCEPTANCE
BIOINTELLIGENCE
2000 BC
0
1500
1800
1900
2000 AD
TIME (year)
R. Satava 29 July 99
PC At An Inflection Point
Non-PC
PCs devices and Internet
Copyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray
PC+
TV/AV
Mobile
Companions
Consumer
PCs
The Dawn Of The PC-Plus Era,
Not The Post-PC Era…
devices aggregate via PCs!!!
Communications
Automation
& Security
Household
Management
PCTV a.k.a. MilliBillg
Using PCs to drive large screens
e.g. tv sets, Plasma Panels
Copyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray Copyright 1999 Microsoft Corporation
PC+
Another big bang?
Internet to TV and audio:
The Net, PC meet the TV
“milliBill”
Analog/digital cable distribution
Home
CATV
Ethernet Home network
Video
captur
e
PC broadcasts
are mixed into
home CATV in
analog and/or
MPEG digital
Basic ideas:
1. PC records or
plays
thru video
cable
channels.
2. PC “broadcasts”
art images,
webcams,
presentations,
videos, DVDs,
etc.
Settop
box
Images
Images from:
from:
http://www.nextmonet.com
http://www.nextmonet.com
AAgallery
gallery that
that sells
sells art
art on
on line
line
The Next Convergence
POTS connects to the Web
a.k.a. Phone-Web Gateways
Web Server
PSTN
Voice to WEB
Bridge
Copyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray
The
Web
DataBase
PC+
PC will prevail for the next decade
as the dominant platform…
its COTS or COTS’ AND www!
Moore’s Law increases performance; and
alternatively reduces prices
PC server clusters with low cost OS beat
proprietary switches, smPs, and DSMs
Home entertainment & control …
–
–
Very large disks (1TB by 2005)
to “store everything” personal
Screens to enhance use
Lack of last mile bandwidth to move pictures, data,
and interact favors home mainframes aka PCs
C = Commercial; C’ = Consumer
SNAP
… c1995
Scalable Network And Platforms
A View of Computing in 2000+
We all missed the impact of WWW!
Gordon Bell
Copyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray
Network
Platform
Jim Gray
PC+
How Will Future Computers Be Built?
Thesis: SNAP: Scalable Networks and Platforms
• Upsize from desktop to world-scale computer
• based on a few standard components
Network
Because:
• Moore’s law:
exponential progress
• Standardization & Commoditization
• Stratification and competition
When: Sooner than you think!
• Massive standardization gives massive use
• Economic forces are enormous
Platform
p
e
r
f
o
r
m
a
n
c
e
Volume drives simple,
cost to standard
price for
Stand-alone
platforms Desk tops
high speed
interconnect
Distributed
workstations
Clustered
Computers
PCs
1-4 processor mP
price
MPPs
1-20 processor mP
Copyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray
PC+
The economics of
operating systems and
databases
Copyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray
PC+
The Virtuous Economic Cycle
drives the PC industry… & Beowulf
Vo
lu
m
e
Co
m
pe
t
iti
o
n
Ut
ili
ty
/v
al
ue
Copyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray
DOJ
In
no
va
t io
n
Standards
PC+
The UNIX Trap:
creating the myth of “open systems”
“Standard” has meant different!
VendorIX platforms have created the “downsizing”
market that provides an apparent, cost reduction
Hardware platform vendors lock-in users with servers of
proprietary UNIX dialects and unique chips
to maintain margins for chip and UNIX development
VendorIX R & D costs $1.4 - $2 billion
Implied selling price $10 - 14 billion for $1.4 billion,
or a sales tax of 1 million UNIX units of $10,000
Users hostage with client-server, database, and apps
An implicit or unconscious cartel has formed that
maintains the industry status quo
Copyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray
PC+
SNAP Architecture----------
Copyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray
PC+
Computing
SNAP
built
entirely
Person
fromPerson
PCs
servers
servers
(PCs)
(PCs)
Portables
Wide-area
global
network
Mobile
Nets
Wide & Local
Area Networks
for: terminal,
PC, workstation,
& servers
???
TC=TV+PC
home ...
(CATV or ATM
or satellite)
Legacy
mainframes &
Legacy
minicomputers
mainframe
& terms
servers &
minicomputer
servers & terminals
A space, time
(bandwidth), &
generation scalable
environment
Copyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray
scalable computers
built from PCs
Centralized
&Centralized
departmental
uni& mP servers
&
departmental
(UNIX
& NT)
servers
buit
from
PCs
PC+
GB with NT, Compaq, & HP cluster
Copyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray
PC+
In a decade we can/will have:
more powerful personal computers
– processing 10-100x; multiprocessors-on-a-chip
–
–
–
adequate networking? PCs now operate at 1 Gbps
–
–
4x resolution (2K x 2K) displays to impact paper
Large, wall-sized and watch-sized displays
low cost, storage of one terabyte for personal use
ubiquitous access = today’s fast LANs
Competitive wireless networking
One chip, networked platforms e.g. light bulbs, cameras everywhere,
& managed by PCs!
Some well-defined platforms that compete with the PC for mind (time) and
market share
watch, pocket, body implant, home
Inevitable, continued cyberization… the challenge… interfacing platforms
and people.
High Performance Computing
A 60+ year view
Copyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray
PC+
Copyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray
PC+
Star Bridge
Copyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray
PC+
Linux super howls
Copyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray
PC+
Dead Supercomputer Society
Copyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray
PC+
Dead Supercomputer Society
ACRI
Alliant
American Supercomputer
Ametek
Applied Dynamics
Astronautics
BBN
CDC
Convex
Cray Computer
Cray Research
Culler-Harris
Culler Scientific
Cydrome
Dana/Ardent/Stellar/Stardent
Denelcor
Elexsi
ETA Systems
Evans and Sutherland Computer
Floating Point Systems
Galaxy YH-1
Goodyear Aerospace MPP
Gould NPL
Guiltech
Intel Scientific Computers
International Parallel Machines
Kendall Square Research
Key Computer Laboratories
MasPar
Meiko
Multiflow
Myrias
Numerix
Prisma
Tera
Thinking Machines
Saxpy
Scientific Computer Systems (SCS)
Soviet Supercomputers
Supertek
Supercomputer Systems
Suprenum
Vitesse Electronics
Steve Squires & Cray
Copyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray
PC+
1000
Bell Prize and
Future Peak
Tflops (t)
100
10
*IBM
Petaflops
study
target
1
NEC
0.1
CM2
0.01
0.001
0.0001
XMP
NCube
1985
1990
Copyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray
1995
2000
2005
2010
PC+
Top 10 tpc-c
Top two Compaq systems are:
1.1 & 1.5X faster than IBM SPs;
1/3 price of IBM
1/5 price of SUN
Copyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray
PC+
Courtesy of Dr. Thomas Sterling, Caltech
Courtesy of Dr. Thomas Sterling, Caltech
Contributions of Beowulf
An experiment in parallel computing systems
Established vision low cost high end computing
Demonstrated effectiveness of PC clusters for some (not all)
classes of applications
Provided networking software
Provided cluster management tools
Conveyed findings to broad community
Tutorials and the book
GB: Provided design standard to rally community!
Standards beget: books, trained people, software … virtuous cycle
Courtesy of Dr. Thomas Sterling, Caltech
High performance
architecture/program timeline
1950 .
1960 .
1970 .
Vtubes
Trans.
MSI(mini)
1980 .
1990 .
Micro RISC
2000
nMicr
Sequential programming---->-----------------------------(single execution stream)