Analisis Faktor-Faktor yang Mempengaruhi Ekspor Crude Palm Oil (CPO) Indonesia ke Uni Eropa
Lampiran 1. Volume Ekspor CPO Indonesia Per Triwulan Tahun 2002 -
2012 (Ton) Tahun/ Triwulan Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2002 329,687.22 250,907.11 367,101.44 398,604.51 2003578,468.37 516,454.11 329,708.31 705,040.91
2012
396,594.94 688,501.84 574,666.96 614,595.46
2011
549,298.21 581,184.56 898,313.31 922,825.43
2010
613,589.81 617,478.52 838,648.95 1,009,201.32
2009
2008
273,768.00 391,031.43 294,844.29 389,365.79
290,316.59 399,489.95 317,460.65 640,902.31
2007
413,103.69 462,554.78 389,637.15 543,723.87
2006
297,219.13 354,295.00 390,729.72 514,681.06
2005
321,912.40 241,424.91 437,041.00 374,795.27
2004
622,010.09 338,852.33 719,008.89 754,133.09 Sumber : www. fas.usda.gov
Lampiran 2. Harga CPO Per TriwulanTahun 2002 - 2012 (USD) Tahun/ Triwulan Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2002
2008
2012
1,209.79 1,114.38 1,025.42 956.43
2011
763.41 779.67 841.54 1,055.15
2010
1,081.13 1,088.90 828.35 453.29
2009
536.25 718.81 641.72 679.50
556.98 711.49 746.40 861.62
303.17 341.66 376.71 405.44
2007
383.97 389.04 418.48 475.77
2006
356.34 371.88 466.63 475.90
2005
496.62 468.82 393.99 379.45
2004
414.32 383.25 373.21 470.71
2003
1,057.99 1,038.73 920.90 741.72 Sumber : www. fas.usda.gov
Lampiran 3. Harga Minyak Rapeseed Per TriwulanTahun 2002 - 2012 (USD) Tahun/ Triwulan Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2002
2008
2012
1,425.80 1,422.22 1,353.81 1,264.68
2011
908.81 881.92 996.70 1,259.56
2010
1,537.12 1,594.69 1,519.04 1,044.00
2009
880.04 871.32 863.33 910.01
878.27 866.06 1,008.35 1,294.74
529.18 519.90 596.99 570.66
2007
786.90 866.49 867.93 883.96
2006
729.75 781.47 787.68 774.96
2005
689.50 717.98 720.20 729.13
2004
689.22 611.72 627.53 625.84
2003
1,279.69 1,241.12 1,233.00 1,202.51 Sumber : www. fas.usda.gov
Lampiran 4. Harga Minyak Kedelai Per TriwulanTahun 2002 - 2012 (USD) Tahun/ Triwulan Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2002
2008
2012
1,256.87 1,261.62 1,228.75 1,116.05
2011
849.34 840.59 887.22 1,122.16
2010
717.04 821.38 769.91 839.75
2009
1,257.36 1,345.66 1,192.71 739.42
660.00 751.03 822.98 964.95
347.45 380.30 439.82 471.79
2007
498.84 541.97 561.20 603.98
2006
463.72 509.93 516.22 493.12
2005
695.56 674.54 534.91 456.80
2004
455.18 488.47 465.47 592.01
2003
1,166.18 1,154.99 1,192.36 1,093.49 Sumber : www. fas.usda.gov
Lampiran 5. PDB Uni Eropa Per Triwulan Tahun 2002-2012
(Trilyun Dollar) Tahun/ Triwulan Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2002 2,523,241.32 2,457,694.89 2,489,686.81 2,519,033.60 2003 2,510,816.10 2,506,629.10 2,539,258.00 2,569,189.10 2004 2,605,480.50 2,647,088.30 2,672,679.40 2,688,031.30 2005 2,713,820.70 2,758,169.60 2,785,870.00 2,830,010.60 2006 2,865,942.30 2,908,560.40 2,948,349.90 3,006,080.00 2007 3,059,143.40 3,092,019.70 3,133,425.00 3,148,438.20 2008 2,917,273.90 2,926,696.80 2,957,765.50 2,967,520.00 2009 3,152,218.20 3,146,470.50 3,140,098.10 3,054,254.10 2010 3,008,712.00 3,065,465.60 3,106,584.80 3,111,738.90 2011 3,156,089.80 3,158,403.30 3,174,700.60 3,177,631.30 2012 3,206,908.20 3,222,752.90 3,257,128.90 3,242,852.50Sumber : www. fas.usda.gov
Lampiran 6. Konsumsi CPO Uni Eropa Per Triwulan Tahun 2002 - 2012 (Ribu Ton) Tahun/ Triwulan Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2002
2008
2012
1863.11 1863.11 2540.20 3041.18
2011
2617.57 1998.20 1380.22 2951.30
2010
1978.31 1998.20 2697.28 3261.69
2009
2368.47 1790.05 1236.45 2643.87
1339.43 1844.57 1465.57 2951.30
1211.97 1436.55 1587.63 2100.65
2007
1635.98 1844.57 1556.20 2164.62
2006
2211.97 1436.55 1987.63 2100.65
2005
1339.43 1844.57 1465.57 2951.30
2004
1635.98 1844.57 1556.20 2164.62
2003
2514.93 1900.74 2312.91 2807.36 Sumber : www. fas.usda.gov
Lampiran 7. Kebijakan CSPO Per Triwulan Tahun 2002-2012 Tahun/ Triwulan Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
1
1
2009
1
1
1
1
2010
1
1
1
1
2011
1
1
1
1
2012
1
1
1
1 Sumber : rspo 2013 (diolah)
Keterangan :
1. Sebelum perdagangan CSPO dianggap 0 ( Tahun 2002 - 2008 triwulan kedua)
2. Sesudah perdagangan CSPO dianggap 1 ( Tahun 2008 triwulan ketiga - 2012)
Lampiran 8. Data Volume Ekspor CPO Indonesia ke Uni Eropa, Harga CPO Dunia, Harga Minyak Rapeseed Dunia, Harga Minyak Kedelai Dunia, PDB Uni Eropa, Konsumsi Uni Eropa dan Kebijakan Perdagangan CSPO Waktu Vol Ekspor CPO Indonesia ke UE (Juta Ton) Harga CPO Dunia (USD) Harga Minyak Rapeseed (USD) Harga Minyak Kedelai (USD) PDB Uni Eropa (Million USD) Konsumsi CPO UE Kebijakan CSPO
2002Q1 329687.22 303.17 529.18 347.45 2523241.32 1211.97 2002Q2 250907.11 341.66 519.90 380.30 2457694.89 1436.55 2002Q3 367101.44 376.71 596.99 439.82 2489686.81 1587.63 2002Q4 398604.51 405.44 570.66 471.79 2519033.60 2100.65 2003Q1 273768.00 414.32 689.22 455.18 2510816.10 1635.98 2003Q2 391031.43 383.25 611.72 488.47 2506629.10 1844.57 2003Q3 294844.29 373.21 627.53 465.47 2539258.00 1556.20 2003Q4 389365.79 470.71 625.84 592.01 2569189.10 2164.62 2004Q1 321912.40 496.62 689.50 695.56 2605480.50 1339.43 2004Q2 241424.91 468.82 717.98 674.54 2647088.30 1844.57 2004Q3 437041.00 393.99 720.20 534.91 2672679.40 1465.57 2004Q4 374795.27 379.45 729.13 456.80 2688031.30 2951.30 2005Q1 297219.13 356.34 729.75 463.72 2713820.70 2211.97 2005Q2 354295.00 371.88 781.47 509.93 2758169.60 1436.55 2005Q3 390729.72 466.63 787.68 516.22 2785870.00 1987.63
Waktu Vol Ekspor CPO Indonesia ke UE (Juta Ton) Harga CPO Dunia (USD) Harga Minyak Rapeseed (USD) Harga Minyak Kedelai (USD) PDB Uni Eropa (Million USD) Konsumsi CPO UE Kebijakan CSPO
1 2009Q3
396594.94 1209.79 1425.80 1256.87 3156089.80 1863.11
1 2011Q1
922825.43 1055.15 1259.56 1122.16 3111738.90 2951.30
1 2010Q4
898313.31 841.54 996.70 887.22 3106584.80 1380.22
1 2010Q3
581184.56 779.67 881.92 840.59 3065465.60 1998.20
1 2010Q2
549298.21 763.41 908.81 849.34 3008712.00 2617.57
1 2010Q1
1009201.32 453.29 1044.00 839.75 3054254.10 3261.69
1 2009Q4
838648.95 828.35 1519.04 769.91 3140098.10 2697.28
617478.52 1088.90 1594.69 821.38 3146470.50 1998.20
2005Q4 514681.06 475.90 774.96 493.12 2830010.60 2100.65 2006Q1 413103.69 383.97 786.90 498.84 2865942.30 1635.98 2006Q2 462554.78 389.04 866.49 541.97 2908560.40 1844.57
1 2009Q2
613589.81 1081.13 1537.12 717.04 3152218.20 1978.31
1 2009Q1
705040.91 679.50 910.01 739.42 2967520.00 2643.87
1 2008Q4
2008Q3 329708.31 641.72 863.33 1192.71 2957765.50 1236.45
2008Q2 516454.11 718.81 871.32 1345.66 2926696.80 1790.05
2008Q1 578468.37 536.25 880.04 1257.36 2917273.90 2368.47
2007Q4 640902.31 861.62 1294.74 964.95 3148438.20 2951.30
2007Q3 317460.65 746.40 1008.35 822.98 3133425.00 1465.57
2007Q2 399489.95 711.49 866.06 751.03 3092019.70 1844.57
2007Q1 290316.59 556.98 878.27 660.00 3059143.40 1339.43
2006Q4 543723.87 475.77 883.96 603.98 3006080.00 2164.62
2006Q3 389637.15 418.48 867.93 561.20 2948349.90 1556.20
1
Waktu Vol Ekspor CPO Indonesia ke UE (Juta Ton) Harga CPO Dunia (USD) Harga Minyak Rapeseed (USD) Harga Minyak Kedelai (USD) PDB Uni Eropa (Million USD) Konsumsi CPO UE Kebijakan CSPO
2011Q2 688501.84 1114.38 1422.22 1261.62 3158403.30 1863.11
1 2011Q3
574666.96 1025.42 1353.81 1228.75 3174700.60 2540.20
1 2011Q4
614595.46 956.43 1264.68 1116.05 3177631.30 3041.18
1 2012Q1
622010.09 1057.99 1279.69 1166.18 3206908.20 2514.93
1 2012Q2
338852.33 1038.73 1241.12 1154.99 3222752.90 1900.74
1 2012Q3
719008.89 920.90 1233.00 1192.36 3257128.90 2312.91
1 2012Q4
754133.09 741.72 1202.51 1093.49 3242852.50 2807.36
1
Lampiran 9. Data Volume Ekspor CPO Indonesia ke Uni Eropa, Harga CPO Dunia, Harga Minyak Rapeseed Dunia, Harga Minyak Kedelai Dunia, PDB Uni Eropa, Konsumsi Uni Eropa dan Kebijakan CSPO (dalam logaritma natural) Waktu Vol Ekspor CPO Indonesia ke UE (Juta Ton) Harga CPO Dunia (USD) Harga Minyak Rapeseed (USD) Harga Minyak Kedelai (USD) PDB Uni Eropa (Million USD) Konsumsi CPO UE Kebijakan CSPO
6.51
7.29 2004Q4
14.80
6.28
6.58
5.98
12.99
7.52 2004Q3
14.79
6.58
5.94
6.15
12.39
7.20 2004Q2
14.77
6.54
6.54
6.21
12.68
7.68 2004Q1
12.83
6.59
6.38
6.66
14.84
6.25
6.67
6.15
12.88
7.27 2005Q3
14.83
6.23
5.92
6.12
12.78
7.70 2005Q2
14.81
6.14
6.59
5.88
12.60
7.99 2005Q1
14.80
14.76
6.44
2002Q1
14.71
12.90
7.37 2002Q4
14.73
6.09
6.39
5.93
12.81
7.27 2002Q3
5.94
6.35
6.25
5.83
12.43
7.10 2002Q2
14.74
5.85
6.27
5.71
12.71
6.00
6.16
6.15
6.19
12.87
7.35 2003Q4
14.75
6.14
6.44
5.92
12.59
7.52 2003Q3
14.73
6.42
14.74
5.95
12.88
7.40 2003Q2
14.74
6.12
6.54
6.03
12.52
7.65 2003Q1
7.59
Waktu Vol Ekspor CPO Indonesia ke UE (Juta Ton) Harga CPO Dunia (USD) Harga Minyak Rapeseed (USD) Harga Minyak Kedelai (USD) PDB Uni Eropa (Million USD) Konsumsi CPO UE Kebijakan CSPO
6.65
14.96
7.60
1 2009Q3
13.64
6.72
7.33
14.96
7.37
7.90
1 2009Q4
13.82
6.12
6.95
6.73
6.71
6.99
8.09
1 2009Q1
13.47
6.52
6.81
6.61
14.90
7.88
13.33
13.33
6.99
7.34
6.58
14.96
7.59
1 2009Q2
14.93
1 2010Q1
7.12
7.99
1 2010Q4
13.74
6.96
7.14
7.02
14.95
1 2011Q1
14.95
12.89
7.10
7.26
7.14
14.96
7.53
7.23
6.79
13.22
13.27
6.64
6.81
6.74
14.92
7.87
1 2010Q2
6.66
6.90
6.78
6.73
14.94
7.60
1 2010Q3
13.71
6.74
1 2008Q4
14.90
2005Q4
13.21
12.87
6.04
6.77
6.33
14.90
7.35 2006Q4
6.16
14.88
6.78
6.40
14.92
7.68 2007Q1
12.58
6.32
7.52 2006Q3
6.30
6.49
12.93
13.15
6.17
6.65
6.20
14.86
7.65 2006Q1
5.95
6.76
6.67
6.21
14.87
7.40 2006Q2
13.04
5.96
6.78
14.93
7.08
6.58
6.28
6.78
7.14
14.89
7.77 2008Q2
13.15
6.77
7.99 2008Q1
7.20
14.89
7.49 2008Q3
12.71
6.46
6.76
13.27
14.96
7.20 2007Q2
12.67
12.90
6.57
6.76
6.62
14.94
7.52 2007Q3
6.62
6.87
6.92
6.71
14.96
7.29 2007Q4
13.37
6.76
7.17
1
Waktu Vol Ekspor CPO Indonesia ke UE (Juta Ton) Harga CPO Dunia (USD) Harga Minyak Rapeseed (USD) Harga Minyak Kedelai (USD) PDB Uni Eropa (Million USD) Konsumsi CPO UE Kebijakan CSPO
6.83
7.83
1 2012Q2
12.73
6.95
7.12
7.05
14.99
7.55
1 2012Q3
13.49
7.12
7.06
7.08
15.00
7.75
1 2012Q4
13.53
6.61
7.09
7.00
14.99
7.94
14.98
7.15
2011Q2
7.11
13.44
7.02
7.26
7.14
14.97
7.53
1 2011Q3
13.26
6.93
7.21
14.97
6.96
7.84
1 2011Q4
13.33
6.86
7.14
7.02
14.97
8.02
1 2012Q1
13.34
1
Lampiran 10. Hasil Analisis Regresi Pengaruh Harga CPO Dunia, Harga Minyak Rapeseed Dunia, Harga Minyak Kedelai Dunia, PDB Uni Eropa, Konsumsi Uni Eropa dan Kebijakan Perdagangan CSPO terhadap Volume Ekspor CPO Indonesia ke Uni Eropa per triwulan Tahun 2002-2012.
1. Uji Normalitas One-Sample Kolmogorov-Smirnov Test
Unstandardized Residual N
44 Normal Parameters
a,,b
Mean .0000000 Std. Deviation .21918923
Most Extreme Differences
Absolute .092
Positive .092
Negative
- .092 Kolmogorov-Smirnov Z
.610 Asymp. Sig. (2-tailed)
.850 a. Test distribution is Normal.
b. Calculated from data.
2. Uji Autokorelasi b
3. Tabel Run Test Run Test Unstandardized Residual
Test Value
a
0.03563 Cases < Test Value
22 Cases >= Test Value
22 Total Cases
44 Number of Runs
26 Z 0.763 Asymp. Sig. (2-tailed) 0.446
a. Median
4. Uji Heterokedastisitas
5. Uji Multikolinearitas dan Uji t- hitung Coefficients a
Model Unstandardized Coefficients
Standardized Coefficients t Sig.
Collinearity Statistics
B Std.
Error Beta Tolerance VIF
1 (Constant) -11.163 13.942 -.801 .428 HCPO -.272 .259 -.303 -1.050 .300 .112 8.907 HMR .153 .370 .126 .413 .682 .100 9.964 HMK .042 .194 .044 .216 .830 .227 4.409 PDB 1.378 1.058 .331 1.303 .201 .145 6.903 KCSPO .293 .121 .391 2.414 .021 .356 2.812 CUE
.528 .159 .378 3.330 .002 .726 1.378
a. Dependent Variable: Voleks
6. Uji Fhitung ANOVA b
Model Sum of Squares df Mean Square F Sig.
1 Regression 3.917 6 .653 11.693 .000
a
Residual 2.066 37 .056 Total 5.983
43
a. Predictors: (Constant), CUE, HCPO, KCSPO, PDB, HMK, HMR